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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum NO bets look quite tempting

I’ve been trying to look at other political betting markets which might be affected if Corbyn does, as the YouGov numbers suggest, take the crown in the LAB leadership contest.

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Comments

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,460
    edited August 2015
    The problem is that, although we all know the wording of the referendum, nobody knows what it actually means. Especially Cameron, of course. What sort of EU are we talking about?

    First
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited August 2015
    Not really.

    First sensible comment!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    Why? Who on earth is going to listen to this old codger with no track record of making a substantial judgement in a 30 odd year career?

    Labour should be under no illusions. A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.
  • Corbyn will definitely oppose whatever deal Cameron comes back with. So it's hard to envisage him campaigning vigorously for a Yes, especially after what happened to Greece, or shedding too many tears if No wins.

    It is going to be very close, as the No side - on both the left and right - will be very motivated; with only a few desultory enthusiasts on the other side to counter them.

    Should Cameron lose, that really would put the cat among the pigeons.

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,620
    edited August 2015
    DavidL said:

    . A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    You mean a bit like a Scottish Tory vote???
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    DavidL said:

    . A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    You mean a bit like a Scottish Tory vote???
    Yeah, as bad as that. Seriously.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,620
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    . A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    You mean a bit like a Scottish Tory vote???
    Yeah, as bad as that. Seriously.
    So a vote for which of the other 3 makes Lab relevant?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    Corbyn will definitely oppose whatever deal Cameron comes back with. So it's hard to envisage him campaigning vigorously for a Yes, especially after what happened to Greece, or shedding too many tears if No wins.

    It is going to be very close, as the No side - on both the left and right - will be very motivated; with only a few desultory enthusiasts on the other side to counter them.

    Should Cameron lose, that really would put the cat among the pigeons.

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I am genuinely undecided and waiting to see what Cameron can do to protect the interests of non EZ members before making up my mind. But I really cannot see the views of a CND, terrorist loving, economic incompetent influencing me at all, not even in a negative way. Like almost every real world decision I do not think he has anything to contribute.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Awoke from siesta to find Kezia Dugdale has been elected as the new leader of Scottish Labour, telling supporters: "We are down, but we are not out."

    Never heard so much as a whisper of this new leader. Who she??
    Surely a stopgap until the parties can find a fish big enough and strong enough to swallow the Sturgeon, whole.

    Caviar, anyone?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33942238
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,071
    edited August 2015
    DavidL said:

    Why? Who on earth is going to listen to this old codger with no track record of making a substantial judgement in a 30 odd year career?

    Labour should be under no illusions. A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    The unions are very well organised and have access to millions of voters. Corbyn clearly connects with a few million too: nowhere near enough to win an election, of course, but a substantial number in a low turnout referendum in which millions on the right are inclined to vote No too.


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,620
    DavidL said:

    Corbyn will definitely oppose whatever deal Cameron comes back with. So it's hard to envisage him campaigning vigorously for a Yes, especially after what happened to Greece, or shedding too many tears if No wins.

    It is going to be very close, as the No side - on both the left and right - will be very motivated; with only a few desultory enthusiasts on the other side to counter them.

    Should Cameron lose, that really would put the cat among the pigeons.

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I am genuinely undecided and waiting to see what Cameron can do to protect the interests of non EZ members before making up my mind. But I really cannot see the views of a CND, terrorist loving, economic incompetent influencing me at all, not even in a negative way. Like almost every real world decision I do not think he has anything to contribute.
    Which of the other 3 would influence your decision?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    . A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    You mean a bit like a Scottish Tory vote???
    Yeah, as bad as that. Seriously.
    So a vote for which of the other 3 makes Lab relevant?
    I don't have a vote (since I really don't approve of members of other parties sticking their oar in) but if I did it would be for Cooper who has a brain and relevant experience even if she has taken dangerously long to find her voice.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805
    edited August 2015
    "I’ve been trying to look at other political betting markets which might be affected if Corbyn does, as the YouGov numbers suggest, take the crown in the LAB leadership contest."

    Year of Next GE 2018/19? If you think Cameron is tempted to stay on, this'd let him.

    Lab Leader Next GE, perhaps; you'd have to say that Corbyn remaining as leader will be 50/50 if he's bad at (say) PMQs, so exclude all four contenders?

    Ladbrokes Holyrood Labour most seats excluding SNP at 1/3?
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,497
    I guess Corbyn has many merits, could teach Cameron a couple of things and should serve the Labour party usefully. But my feeling is that he has both feet planted in the past, and so should not be leader. Not.
  • DavidL said:

    Corbyn will definitely oppose whatever deal Cameron comes back with. So it's hard to envisage him campaigning vigorously for a Yes, especially after what happened to Greece, or shedding too many tears if No wins.

    It is going to be very close, as the No side - on both the left and right - will be very motivated; with only a few desultory enthusiasts on the other side to counter them.

    Should Cameron lose, that really would put the cat among the pigeons.

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I am genuinely undecided and waiting to see what Cameron can do to protect the interests of non EZ members before making up my mind. But I really cannot see the views of a CND, terrorist loving, economic incompetent influencing me at all, not even in a negative way. Like almost every real world decision I do not think he has anything to contribute.

    Of course he won't influence you (or me, for that matter), but he will influence others. Adding two three million Corbynistas to the UKIP and Tory Right No's and it starts to get interesting.

    I suspect Cameron always assumed that, however reluctantly, the left would by and large vote Yes. I don't think he can assume that now.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    edited August 2015

    DavidL said:

    Corbyn will definitely oppose whatever deal Cameron comes back with. So it's hard to envisage him campaigning vigorously for a Yes, especially after what happened to Greece, or shedding too many tears if No wins.

    It is going to be very close, as the No side - on both the left and right - will be very motivated; with only a few desultory enthusiasts on the other side to counter them.

    Should Cameron lose, that really would put the cat among the pigeons.

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I am genuinely undecided and waiting to see what Cameron can do to protect the interests of non EZ members before making up my mind. But I really cannot see the views of a CND, terrorist loving, economic incompetent influencing me at all, not even in a negative way. Like almost every real world decision I do not think he has anything to contribute.

    Of course he won't influence you (or me, for that matter), but he will influence others. Adding two three million Corbynistas to the UKIP and Tory Right No's and it starts to get interesting.

    I suspect Cameron always assumed that, however reluctantly, the left would by and large vote Yes. I don't think he can assume that now.

    Maybe although there has also been a hard left attitude towards the EU as a businessman's club and which was likely to vote Out. The big problem I see for Out is finding a coherent alternative around which they can coalesce and campaign. Having Corbyn on board is likely to make that even more difficult than it looks already.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805
    Here is a lesson in conditional probabilities: Jeremy Corbyn is priced as being about three to four times more likely to be elected Labour leader as Andy Burnham, but the pair are at similar odds in the Next Prime Minister market.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    EPG said:

    "I’ve been trying to look at other political betting markets which might be affected if Corbyn does, as the YouGov numbers suggest, take the crown in the LAB leadership contest."

    Year of Next GE 2018/19? If you think Cameron is tempted to stay on, this'd let him.

    Lab Leader Next GE, perhaps; you'd have to say that Corbyn remaining as leader will be 50/50 if he's bad at (say) PMQs, so exclude all four contenders?

    Ladbrokes Holyrood Labour most seats excluding SNP at 1/3?

    Whilst I think the idea that Corbyn is going to lead a renaissance of SLAB is incredibly far fetched I would agree that that 1/3 would probably be better value if he wins than it is right now.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,770
    edited August 2015
    Has any Labour supporter yet received their ballot paper for the leader and deputy leader election?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802
    I cannot see any scenario where Corbyn as Labour leader will be allowed to campaign for no. He might be a slightly lacklustre yes campaigner, but suggest he campaigns for no and he will be out of the leadership within 24 hours IMO.
  • alex. said:

    I cannot see any scenario where Corbyn as Labour leader will be allowed to campaign for no. He might be a slightly lacklustre yes campaigner, but suggest he campaigns for no and he will be out of the leadership within 24 hours IMO.

    What would be the mechanism to remove him from leadership?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098


    ...

    Right now I'm a Yes [to the EU], but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    Crumbs, Mr. Observer. You don't want a Conservative Government in case it upsets the Scots. You don't want us to leave the EU in case it upsets the Scots. You seem to be thinking that keeping the UK together is the ultimate aim and appeasing the SNP is the only way that it can be achieved. Maybe you might want to think about what it is about the UK that makes it worth preserving.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited August 2015
    It is now not impossible to imagine the No campaign being led by Jeremy Corbyn, Daniel Hannan, Liam Fox, John Redwood, Nigel Farage, Kate Hoey and Frank Field while the Yes campaign is led by David Cameron, George Osborne, Tim Farron, Tony Blair, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper, Nicola Sturgeon, Natalie Bennett and Nick Clegg
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802

    alex. said:

    I cannot see any scenario where Corbyn as Labour leader will be allowed to campaign for no. He might be a slightly lacklustre yes campaigner, but suggest he campaigns for no and he will be out of the leadership within 24 hours IMO.

    What would be the mechanism to remove him from leadership?
    The vast majority of Labour MPs simply going on strike. And whatever the reasons for the "Corbyn surge" in the Labour leadership contest i am pretty certain that the vast majority of those causing it are likely to be pro-EU and will offer no objection.

    There are plenty of scenarios where Corbyn remains "officially" Labour leader, but in reality is out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    MikeK said:

    Awoke from siesta to find Kezia Dugdale has been elected as the new leader of Scottish Labour, telling supporters: "We are down, but we are not out."

    Never heard so much as a whisper of this new leader. Who she??
    Surely a stopgap until the parties can find a fish big enough and strong enough to swallow the Sturgeon, whole.

    Caviar, anyone?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33942238

    Kezia Dugdale is 33, is she the youngest party leader since Pitt the Younger?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,040
    edited August 2015
    MikeK said:

    Awoke from siesta to find Kezia Dugdale has been elected as the new leader of Scottish Labour, telling supporters: "We are down, but we are not out."

    Never heard so much as a whisper of this new leader. Who she??
    Surely a stopgap until the parties can find a fish big enough and strong enough to swallow the Sturgeon, whole.

    Caviar, anyone?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33942238

    Given the political commentators collective humiliation following the election of Jim Murphy as the last SLAB leader in December 2014 - when they roared loudly on twitter - I'm not surprised at their collective silence on Kezia:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/sometimes-its-just-a-spade/

    I think Kezia's first challenge is to manage expectations around Holyrood 2016, based on current polling SLAB would lose all of their 13 constituency seats and be left with 25 list seats.

    The problem facing Kezia is that there are going to be around 100 candidates after these 25 list seats. Kezia and her deputy are guaranteed 1st place on their regional lists, other than that it's going to get messy !!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    HYUFD said:

    It is now not impossible to imagine the No campaign being led by Jeremy Corbyn, Daniel Hannan, Liam Fox, John Redwood, Nigel Farage, Kate Hoey and Frank Field while the Yes campaign is led by David Cameron, George Osborne, Tim Farron, Tony Blair, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper, Nicola Sturgeon, Natalie Bennett and Nick Clegg

    MJr. Hyfud, there are those of us of a certain age who will remember the last referendum. Then the stay-in campaign was lead by the great and the good. The Outers were led by the "nutters and misfits" who, we were assured, were spreading lies and half-truths especially on the issue of sovereignty. Of course it turned out that the nutters and misfits were telling the truth and were spot on as to where the EEC, as it was, would take us.

    I hope that, regardless of our own personal preferences, the Old Brigade will at least inform the younger voters of the experiences of last time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    HYUFD said:

    It is now not impossible to imagine the No campaign being led by Jeremy Corbyn, Daniel Hannan, Liam Fox, John Redwood, Nigel Farage, Kate Hoey and Frank Field while the Yes campaign is led by David Cameron, George Osborne, Tim Farron, Tony Blair, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper, Nicola Sturgeon, Natalie Bennett and Nick Clegg

    MJr. Hyfud, there are those of us of a certain age who will remember the last referendum. Then the stay-in campaign was lead by the great and the good. The Outers were led by the "nutters and misfits" who, we were assured, were spreading lies and half-truths especially on the issue of sovereignty. Of course it turned out that the nutters and misfits were telling the truth and were spot on as to where the EEC, as it was, would take us.

    I hope that, regardless of our own personal preferences, the Old Brigade will at least inform the younger voters of the experiences of last time.
    Indeed, Powell and Foot were on the same side last time, with Heath and Jenkins opposing them
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,990

    Has any Labour supporter yet received their ballot paper for the leader and deputy leader election?

    Evening all,

    Can't you do it online? In which case - has online voting opened yet?
  • DavidL said:

    . A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    You mean a bit like a Scottish Tory vote???
    AKA a Scottish Labour vote or a Scottish Lib Dem vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 13,990
    Labour website:

    "Ballots will be sent on 14 August and an email with details of how to vote online will be sent around the same time."

    No doubt 2nd class to save a few bob.
  • Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I'm a Yes, but view the No hastening the break-up of the UK as a consolation prize if we lose.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I'm a Yes, but view the No hastening the break-up of the UK as a consolation prize if we lose.
    I'm an emphatic No, but view the hastening of the breakup of the UK as the icing on the cake if we win.
  • DavidL said:

    Corbyn will definitely oppose whatever deal Cameron comes back with. So it's hard to envisage him campaigning vigorously for a Yes, especially after what happened to Greece, or shedding too many tears if No wins.

    It is going to be very close, as the No side - on both the left and right - will be very motivated; with only a few desultory enthusiasts on the other side to counter them.

    Should Cameron lose, that really would put the cat among the pigeons.

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I am genuinely undecided and waiting to see what Cameron can do to protect the interests of non EZ members before making up my mind. But I really cannot see the views of a CND, terrorist loving, economic incompetent influencing me at all, not even in a negative way. Like almost every real world decision I do not think he has anything to contribute.

    Of course he won't influence you (or me, for that matter), but he will influence others. Adding two three million Corbynistas to the UKIP and Tory Right No's and it starts to get interesting.

    I suspect Cameron always assumed that, however reluctantly, the left would by and large vote Yes. I don't think he can assume that now.

    It also makes a Yes victory all the sweeter for Cameron if he defeats not just Farage but Corbyn in the referendum too.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268
    Are Labour really about to go all Freedom For Tooting on us?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,870
    Really bad stuff for labour all over really.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,711
    edited August 2015
    11% Con Lead... Not bad! :smiley:


  • Really bad stuff for labour all over really.
    Do I think they'd get better/worsen is quite different to would I be more/less likely to vote.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    And the answers re Corbyn are before:

    - Lots of people know who he is
    - The media gets to grips with him

    The answers re "If Corbyn is PM" should be very, very frightening for any Lab supporter. They look like total wipeout territory.

  • glwglw Posts: 4,196
    That is before most people know very much about Corbyn. What will it look like once his eccentric views become widely known?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,870

    Really bad stuff for labour all over really.
    Do I think they'd get better/worsen is quite different to would I be more/less likely to vote.
    Possibly, but when pretty much every one is negative, thats not rainbow and unicorns territory
  • HYUFD said:

    MikeK said:

    Awoke from siesta to find Kezia Dugdale has been elected as the new leader of Scottish Labour, telling supporters: "We are down, but we are not out."

    Never heard so much as a whisper of this new leader. Who she??
    Surely a stopgap until the parties can find a fish big enough and strong enough to swallow the Sturgeon, whole.

    Caviar, anyone?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33942238

    Kezia Dugdale is 33, is she the youngest party leader since Pitt the Younger?
    Looks to be 10 years too early. A party has to look competent in the eyes of the voters. Sturgeon is 45 an age with experience and energy.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Corbyn will come down on the side of Yes. He likes the social chapter and is an internationalist at heart.

    Nonetheless No is where the value is on Betfair. The polls are not that far apart and the kippers and fellow travellers are going to have a high turnout. The polls will get closer as time goes on and there will be wobbles. I expect that it should be easy to go all green on this market closer to the time.

    And of course I will be voting Yes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,439
    Having just skimmed the previous thread, I cannot allow the good Mr Llama to get away with his comment on pedantry addressed to a certain YeoDoethur.

    If people wish to write my ID out, it is correctly 'Y Doethur': 'The Doctor'. I know it is Welsh and therefore hard!

    Also during the rather surreal comments on 'your dictator murdered more people than my dictator' everyone missed the punchline on Ceaucescu - he was knighted by James Callaghan in 1979.

    This is because he was seen as a possible conduit between the Soviet Union and the West, so everyone sucked up to him. He was of course a moderate compared to some - Honecker, Hoxha, Karday - which is a fairly damning indictment of the evils of the Soviet system.

    Some other pretty unsavoury characters have been knighted - cf. Robert Mugabe.

    I have had a most interesting day at Stratford watching Othello. However, the Labour leadership election is descending into a bizarre cross between Twelfth Night and Macbeth. The Scottish one was definitely Much Ado About Nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    Comres has Burnham doing best, with a net score of +5% on whether he would improve Labour's chances or not. Cooper is on -3%, Kendall on -6% and Corbyn on -10%

    However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,974

    Are Labour really about to go all Freedom For Tooting on us?

    Labour lead by Wolfie Smith’s grandpa – It’s going to be a 5 year Sit-Com. :lol:
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,386

    Really bad stuff for labour all over really.
    Damn the bloody independent. Now they won't elect Corbyn. WTF are they on, ruining the best political comedy in decades. Grr.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,196
    HYUFD said:

    However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    That'll be the bloke who might still be a politician and potentially running if it wasn't for his brother? Thanks again Ed, you have excelled yourself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    For comparison the question was also asked of the last 3 Labour leaders, Ed Miliband was on -50%, Gordon Brown on -45%, Tony Blair on -43%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,439
    HYUFD said:

    Comres has Burnham doing best, with a net score of +5% on whether he would improve Labour's chances or not. Cooper is on -3%, Kendall on -6% and Corbyn on -10%

    However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    I think that's because of all the wishful thinking/writing that has gone on. David Miliband would not have done better than his brother - he is less intelligent, less articulate, less energetic and has no imagination - but absence makes the heart grow fonder.
  • Well, whoever would have thought it? That is a shock.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,439
    SeanT said:

    Really bad stuff for labour all over really.
    Damn the bloody independent. Now they won't elect Corbyn. WTF are they on, ruining the best political comedy in decades. Grr.
    Don't despair yet. Rentoul spent ages openly trying to unseat Ed Miliband. It had the reverse effect of immeasurably strengthening his position. And that was even before he more or less admitted voting Tory at the last two elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I'm a Yes, but view the No hastening the break-up of the UK as a consolation prize if we lose.
    I am a Yes to the EU, provided some reform, and a Yes to the Union too, country comes first!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    edited August 2015
    So Corbyn will, by wide margins:

    Make the British economy worse
    Make the Labour Party's popularity worse
    Make Britain's standing in the world worse
    Make the personal finances of ordinary Britons worse
    Make public trust in politicians worse
    Make divisions within society worse
    Make job opportunities for British people worse
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802
    According to the poll, "if Corbyn became PM, he would worsen Labour popularity with the electorate compared to the current position"

    I think perhaps there is a bit of a logical inconsistency here... ;)
  • glwglw Posts: 4,196
    HYUFD said:

    For comparison the question was also asked of the last 3 Labour leaders, Ed Miliband was on -50%, Gordon Brown on -45%, Tony Blair on -43%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    There is a pattern emerging. It looks like the Labour Party is deliberately choosing ever worse leaders. Will it repeat?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    edited August 2015
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres has Burnham doing best, with a net score of +5% on whether he would improve Labour's chances or not. Cooper is on -3%, Kendall on -6% and Corbyn on -10%

    However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    I think that's because of all the wishful thinking/writing that has gone on. David Miliband would not have done better than his brother - he is less intelligent, less articulate, less energetic and has no imagination - but absence makes the heart grow fonder.
    Yet all the polling evidence, even in 2010, suggested David Miliband had far higher ratings than Ed, but Labour, or at least the afilliates, elected his brother anyway. David Miliband did win the membership then though, so if he were to return that would be one card he could play
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    OT completely..been a wonderful day in Italy..good food..wine and company.. even managed to watch Cabaret..fantastic movie in all categories.. more on the Corbyn watch domani..
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,386
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    For comparison the question was also asked of the last 3 Labour leaders, Ed Miliband was on -50%, Gordon Brown on -45%, Tony Blair on -43%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    There is a pattern emerging. It looks like the Labour Party is deliberately choosing ever worse leaders. Will it repeat?
    This is what I pointed out on the prior thread. Incredibly, their leaders keep getting worse (who'd have thought they could select someone less papabile than Gordon Brown?) Now they might choose Corbyn??

    Bravo!

    After Corbyn, who? Lord Voldemort? Ronald McDonald?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    ydoethur said:

    Having just skimmed the previous thread, I cannot allow the good Mr Llama to get away with his comment on pedantry addressed to a certain YeoDoethur.

    If people wish to write my ID out, it is correctly 'Y Doethur': 'The Doctor'. I know it is Welsh and therefore hard!

    ...

    Fair go, but I did only reference you as, inter alia, PB's Pendant in Chief - a role that you previously seemed to have taken on in good heart.

    As for the gross misspelling of your screen name, I apologise and can only plead in mitigation that I had had a jolly lunch. However, now that you have explained the spelling and the meaning i shall not make that mistake again. Whether you will enjoy being addressed as," The Doctor" we shall see.


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    Lab is already 11 points behind in today's ComRes.

    If Corbyn wins, could Lab end up 15 or even 20 points behind?

    Surely if that happened he would be unseated?

    Whatever the technicalities, if say 85% of Lab MPs sign a motion calling for him to go his position would be untenable?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    That'll be the bloke who might still be a politician and potentially running if it wasn't for his brother? Thanks again Ed, you have excelled yourself.
    Yes, I think a few more years with Ed off the Christmas Card list in the D Miliband household
  • Ah! Didn't realise a new thread started.

    FPT:

    Congrats to @Pauly on getting into Birmingham. I think my own experiences at uni made me more left, than right-wing though ;)

    Also, I really enjoyed reading @Flockers_pb's contributions, they are really insightful. I also think that @SouthamObserver makes an excellent point in regard to Tom Watson. Although I intensely dislike the man, he is not someone of the hard-left; as Brownite, he'll too oppose the idea of Labour becoming some far-left movement. Thus, Tom Watson's role as Deputy Leader is even more crucial when you account for David Herdson's point that Corbyn lacks organisational skills. More importantly, Watson doesn't lack these skills. Watson has even been involved in takeovers - he was very much involved in the 2005-06 Brownite plot to oust Tony Blair. Although I like Stella Creasy, it may turn out to be a blessing for Labour that someone involved in the political dark arts is elected deputy leader. He is no way an endearing, or charismatic figure - but he could well undermine Corbyn by assuming organisational control of the Labour party.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,692
    Tory lead drops by 1% compared with last Comres poll for Daily Mail.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,439
    edited August 2015

    ydoethur said:

    Having just skimmed the previous thread, I cannot allow the good Mr Llama to get away with his comment on pedantry addressed to a certain YeoDoethur.

    If people wish to write my ID out, it is correctly 'Y Doethur': 'The Doctor'. I know it is Welsh and therefore hard!

    ...

    Fair go, but I did only reference you as, inter alia, PB's Pendant in Chief - a role that you previously seemed to have taken on in good heart.

    As for the gross misspelling of your screen name, I apologise and can only plead in mitigation that I had had a jolly lunch. However, now that you have explained the spelling and the meaning i shall not make that mistake again. Whether you will enjoy being addressed as," The Doctor" we shall see.


    I am very pleased to hear you had a jolly lunch, and I have absolutely no objection to being pedant in chief. As a result, however, I was honour bound to draw attention to this grievous error :wink:

    (PS I intended my earlier post as a bit of a joke - I do hope I didn't accidentally offend you. Apologies if I did.)
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,371

    DavidL said:

    Why? Who on earth is going to listen to this old codger with no track record of making a substantial judgement in a 30 odd year career?

    Labour should be under no illusions. A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    The unions are very well organised and have access to millions of voters. Corbyn clearly connects with a few million too: nowhere near enough to win an election, of course, but a substantial number in a low turnout referendum in which millions on the right are inclined to vote No too.


    You think a referendum on the EU will be a low turnout? It will be General Election levels of turnout.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @HurstLliama

    'I'm an emphatic No, but view the hastening of the breakup of the UK as the icing on the cake if we win.'

    Me too, a win win
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802
    Have there been any non-YouGov/Internet polls of the Labour Leadership contest? If not, is it possible that the polling is wildly inaccurate, and that the Corbyn surge is largely an internet/social media phenomenom. Which would make polls based on Internet panels potentially extremely unrepresentative?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,692
    MikeL said:

    Lab is already 11 points behind in today's ComRes.

    If Corbyn wins, could Lab end up 15 or even 20 points behind?

    Surely if that happened he would be unseated?

    Whatever the technicalities, if say 85% of Lab MPs sign a motion calling for him to go his position would be untenable?

    But Survation only has Labour 5% behind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,439
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres has Burnham doing best, with a net score of +5% on whether he would improve Labour's chances or not. Cooper is on -3%, Kendall on -6% and Corbyn on -10%

    However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    I think that's because of all the wishful thinking/writing that has gone on. David Miliband would not have done better than his brother - he is less intelligent, less articulate, less energetic and has no imagination - but absence makes the heart grow fonder.
    Yet all the polling evidence, even in 2010, suggested David Miliband had far higher ratings than Ed, but Labour, or at least the afilliates, elected his brother anyway. David Miliband did win the membership then though, so if he were to return that would be one card he could play
    Yes - but people had heard of the Foreign Secretary. I follow politics fairly closely, but I must confess I don't know off-hand who the secretary of state for energy/climate change/random name this week is. So I don't think that's terribly significant. The key fact is, Miliband Sr did not have any outstanding qualities that would have made his leadership a success where his brother's was a failure. It's unlikely he would have said 'hell yes' in a TV interview, but who can forget that banana?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,788
    notme said:

    DavidL said:

    Why? Who on earth is going to listen to this old codger with no track record of making a substantial judgement in a 30 odd year career?

    Labour should be under no illusions. A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    The unions are very well organised and have access to millions of voters. Corbyn clearly connects with a few million too: nowhere near enough to win an election, of course, but a substantial number in a low turnout referendum in which millions on the right are inclined to vote No too.


    You think a referendum on the EU will be a low turnout? It will be General Election levels of turnout.
    I expect it to be more on the levels of the AV Referendum. The EU just does not interest the average member of the public that much.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,711
    SeanT said:

    Really bad stuff for labour all over really.
    Damn the bloody independent. Now they won't elect Corbyn. WTF are they on, ruining the best political comedy in decades. Grr.
    Do you think Lab members are listening to the electorate anyway though?

    If you ask me, this whole thing with Corbyn is the Labour Party sending a big F.U. to the voters for rejecting Labour twice...

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,439
    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    Lab is already 11 points behind in today's ComRes.

    If Corbyn wins, could Lab end up 15 or even 20 points behind?

    Surely if that happened he would be unseated?

    Whatever the technicalities, if say 85% of Lab MPs sign a motion calling for him to go his position would be untenable?

    But Survation only has Labour 5% behind.
    The key problem with all polls is that they are currently not trusted for some obscure reason (that colossal cock-up in May suggesting Labour had a decent chance of being the largest party might have something to do with it). Surely even a 25 point lead for the Conservative would be dismissed by Corbyn's more fanatical supporters as unrepresentative of the nation (which a mere 25 point lead might well be). If they change their methodologies, that might make them even less trusted until we've proved them in an election.

    So I'm guessing the polls will have little bearing on Corbyn's leadership. Local, mayoral and by-election results though will become much more important if they show a clear and consistent pattern.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870
    notme said:

    DavidL said:

    Why? Who on earth is going to listen to this old codger with no track record of making a substantial judgement in a 30 odd year career?

    Labour should be under no illusions. A vote for Corbyn is a vote for irrelevancy with the debate and discussion taking place round about them.

    The unions are very well organised and have access to millions of voters. Corbyn clearly connects with a few million too: nowhere near enough to win an election, of course, but a substantial number in a low turnout referendum in which millions on the right are inclined to vote No too.


    You think a referendum on the EU will be a low turnout? It will be General Election levels of turnout.
    Low turnout is why No is a good bet right now, old people tend towards No and they are the ones who vote. The young who don't vote are the ones who side with Yes.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,196
    SeanT said:

    This is what I pointed out on the prior thread. Incredibly, their leaders keep getting worse (who'd have thought they could select someone less papabile than Gordon Brown?) Now they might choose Corbyn??

    Labour's problem is that many Labour members hate their most successful leader, unlike most political parties which revere their champions. So unlike most parties that try to repeat their success, thinking they have found a winning formula, Labour are defiantly trying to do the opposite. And apparently Miliband was not rock bottom.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Comres has Burnham doing best, with a net score of +5% on whether he would improve Labour's chances or not. Cooper is on -3%, Kendall on -6% and Corbyn on -10%

    However the best score of all was recorded by someone not even running, David Miliband was on +11%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    I think that's because of all the wishful thinking/writing that has gone on. David Miliband would not have done better than his brother - he is less intelligent, less articulate, less energetic and has no imagination - but absence makes the heart grow fonder.
    Yet all the polling evidence, even in 2010, suggested David Miliband had far higher ratings than Ed, but Labour, or at least the afilliates, elected his brother anyway. David Miliband did win the membership then though, so if he were to return that would be one card he could play
    Yes - but people had heard of the Foreign Secretary. I follow politics fairly closely, but I must confess I don't know off-hand who the secretary of state for energy/climate change/random name this week is. So I don't think that's terribly significant. The key fact is, Miliband Sr did not have any outstanding qualities that would have made his leadership a success where his brother's was a failure. It's unlikely he would have said 'hell yes' in a TV interview, but who can forget that banana?
    David Miliband also has high net favourables, as this poll shows, that is less prone to name recognition. He is recognised abroad, Hillary Clinton had a crush on him, Labour donors think he is brilliant, Tony Blair saw him as his heir apparent, with Chuka now seemingly off the scene he returns as the 'Prince across the Water.' If Corbyn wins, as is still likely, but fails to perform I could see him being replaced by Alan Johnson on a 'unity' ticket about 2/3 years into the Parliament, much as Michael Howard replaced IDS. Johnson could then help Labour avoid a complete massacre in 2020, D Miliband could find a safe seat and then succeed Johnson after the election
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    MikeL said:

    And the answers re Corbyn are before:

    - Lots of people know who he is
    - The media gets to grips with him

    The answers re "If Corbyn is PM" should be very, very frightening for any Lab supporter. They look like total wipeout territory.

    With a sane PLP he would not be nominated. Under normal rules he would certainly not be elected. However the electorate that he has signed up do not like the Labour Party either. Wiping out the Labour Party as we know it is quite acceptable to them.
    So its really quite impossible to predict what will happen. Gordon Brown is supposed to be speaking tomorrow, but for all the effect it will have on the electorate they may as well wheel out George Brown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    john_zims said:

    @HurstLliama

    'I'm an emphatic No, but view the hastening of the breakup of the UK as the icing on the cake if we win.'

    Me too, a win win

    I am greatly concerned by these PBers who would like to see Great Britain reduced to Little England
  • ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    Lab is already 11 points behind in today's ComRes.

    If Corbyn wins, could Lab end up 15 or even 20 points behind?

    Surely if that happened he would be unseated?

    Whatever the technicalities, if say 85% of Lab MPs sign a motion calling for him to go his position would be untenable?

    But Survation only has Labour 5% behind.
    The key problem with all polls is that they are currently not trusted for some obscure reason (that colossal cock-up in May suggesting Labour had a decent chance of being the largest party might have something to do with it). Surely even a 25 point lead for the Conservative would be dismissed by Corbyn's more fanatical supporters as unrepresentative of the nation (which a mere 25 point lead might well be). If they change their methodologies, that might make them even less trusted until we've proved them in an election.

    So I'm guessing the polls will have little bearing on Corbyn's leadership. Local, mayoral and by-election results though will become much more important if they show a clear and consistent pattern.
    Equally, if Corbyn didn't poll badly his detractors could also say it was unrepresentative - Labour had significant leads under Ed Miliband after all. Nonetheless, ComRes appear to be showing signifcantly bigger leaders than other pollsters (ICM, Survation - I don't think YG have done any VI polls recently) for the Tories. We'll find out whether they are right, whether ICM or Survation are right, or just like the GE they are all wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    For comparison the question was also asked of the last 3 Labour leaders, Ed Miliband was on -50%, Gordon Brown on -45%, Tony Blair on -43%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    There is a pattern emerging. It looks like the Labour Party is deliberately choosing ever worse leaders. Will it repeat?
    Mind you, the Tories went Thatcher, then Major, then Hague, then IDS, so they are hardly ones to talk!!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2015
    The Comres poll is a terrible one for Labour, it also highlights the generational gap enormously. In the under 45's Labour is ahead by double digits, in the over 45's the Tories are ahead but the killer one are the over 65's : CON 54, LAB 18, UKIP 16, LD 6.

    So essentially there is no one over the age of 65 voting Labour.

    Also it's the second poll that has Labour behind the Tories in scotland.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,802
    It is far from clear in the reality of a UK out of the EU that it would be in an independent Scotland's interests to prioritise membership of the EU over bilateral agreements with the rUK to maintain a single market between the two. The UK leaving the EU is something that is scaring the Irish a lot, I think.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,386
    Speedy said:

    The Comres poll, is a terrible one for Labour, it also highlights the generational gap enormously. In the under 45's Labour is ahead by double digits, in the over 45's the Tories are ahead but the killer one are the over 65's : CON 54, LAB 18, UKIP 16, LD 6.

    So essentially there is no one over the age of 65 voting Labour.

    All these under 45s going Labour are Generation Rent. Cameron really needs to do something about housing. If he does the Tories will sweep to a landslide in 2020, Corbyn or no Corbyn. If he doesn't....
  • glw said:

    SeanT said:

    This is what I pointed out on the prior thread. Incredibly, their leaders keep getting worse (who'd have thought they could select someone less papabile than Gordon Brown?) Now they might choose Corbyn??

    Labour's problem is that many Labour members hate their most successful leader, unlike most political parties which revere their champions. So unlike most parties that try to repeat their success, thinking they have found a winning formula, Labour are defiantly trying to do the opposite. And apparently Miliband was not rock bottom.
    Tbf, Blair is not a straight-forward case; his situation is more complex. While the politics of New Labour is not representative of your average Labour member, had Iraq not happened Blair most likely would not be disliked by Labour party members.

    As for Gordon Brown, he wasn't really elected; it was more of a coup. Ed Miliband was chosen by unions, not bt activists. So out of all of Labour's bad leadership choices, Corbyn is one in which members and activists can be most pointed to.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,809
    Good evening, everyone.

    I'd be surprised if Corbyn wants to leave the EU. It would seem to chime well with his views on immigration, although perhaps it clashes in other areas.

    Mr. Alex, it's mildly hilarious how some think Scotland leaving the UK is super because independence is awesome, but leaving the EU is awful because of the economic integration.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,692
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    Lab is already 11 points behind in today's ComRes.

    If Corbyn wins, could Lab end up 15 or even 20 points behind?

    Surely if that happened he would be unseated?

    Whatever the technicalities, if say 85% of Lab MPs sign a motion calling for him to go his position would be untenable?

    But Survation only has Labour 5% behind.
    The key problem with all polls is that they are currently not trusted for some obscure reason (that colossal cock-up in May suggesting Labour had a decent chance of being the largest party might have something to do with it). Surely even a 25 point lead for the Conservative would be dismissed by Corbyn's more fanatical supporters as unrepresentative of the nation (which a mere 25 point lead might well be). If they change their methodologies, that might make them even less trusted until we've proved them in an election.

    So I'm guessing the polls will have little bearing on Corbyn's leadership. Local, mayoral and by-election results though will become much more important if they show a clear and consistent pattern.
    I don't disagree. We are also faced with a situation where pollsters are making different adjustments in seeking to deal with their May debacle , but as of now we have no idea as to which - if any - is correct.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    HYUFD said:

    john_zims said:

    @HurstLliama

    'I'm an emphatic No, but view the hastening of the breakup of the UK as the icing on the cake if we win.'

    Me too, a win win

    I am greatly concerned by these PBers who would like to see Great Britain reduced to Little England
    Who said anything about "Little England"? If the Scots want to go their own way, as seems inevitable, then let them. The Welsh and the Northern Irish too, though they both may need a bit of a shove. There will be nothing ":little" about the England that is left after its unwanted medieval leftovers have gone their own way.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,196
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    For comparison the question was also asked of the last 3 Labour leaders, Ed Miliband was on -50%, Gordon Brown on -45%, Tony Blair on -43%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    There is a pattern emerging. It looks like the Labour Party is deliberately choosing ever worse leaders. Will it repeat?
    Mind you, the Tories went Thatcher, then Major, then Hague, then IDS, so they are hardly ones to talk!!
    True, but the Tories weren't trying to find some sort of anti-Thatcher.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,131


    ...

    Right now I'm a Yes [to the EU], but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    Crumbs, Mr. Observer. You don't want a Conservative Government in case it upsets the Scots. You don't want us to leave the EU in case it upsets the Scots. You seem to be thinking that keeping the UK together is the ultimate aim and appeasing the SNP is the only way that it can be achieved. Maybe you might want to think about what it is about the UK that makes it worth preserving.
    You're misunderstanding Mr Observer's affection for the union.

    It's the mechanism that allows him to vote Labour, regardless of their policies, because anything else represents an existential threat to the Union that he holds so dear.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,809
    Mr. Llama, Scottish independence is entirely possible. It's no more inevitable than ever closer union, or the Roman Empire surviving the Crisis of the Third Century.

    Wales hasn't been independent, or anything approaching it, since Llewellyn made the mistake of annoying Edward I. It also has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the wealth.

    [I got some books on modern history last Christmas].
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    The Comres poll, is a terrible one for Labour, it also highlights the generational gap enormously. In the under 45's Labour is ahead by double digits, in the over 45's the Tories are ahead but the killer one are the over 65's : CON 54, LAB 18, UKIP 16, LD 6.

    So essentially there is no one over the age of 65 voting Labour.

    All these under 45s going Labour are Generation Rent. Cameron really needs to do something about housing. If he does the Tories will sweep to a landslide in 2020, Corbyn or no Corbyn. If he doesn't....
    Cameron needs to do the necessary stuff on foreign buyers leaving properties empty, to take that argument away from Labour, and then make clear the link between immigration and housing. If there are three generations of Bangladeshis or 20 Polish workers living to a house, obviously a typical young British couple can't afford to compete.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    For comparison the question was also asked of the last 3 Labour leaders, Ed Miliband was on -50%, Gordon Brown on -45%, Tony Blair on -43%
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/08/15/corbyn-worst-placed-to-beat-tories-–-poll/

    There is a pattern emerging. It looks like the Labour Party is deliberately choosing ever worse leaders. Will it repeat?
    Mind you, the Tories went Thatcher, then Major, then Hague, then IDS, so they are hardly ones to talk!!
    True, but the Tories weren't trying to find some sort of anti-Thatcher.
    No, they were trying to find an anti-Blair, until they ended up selecting a Blair clone anyway!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 9,439
    edited August 2015


    Wales hasn't been independent, or anything approaching it, since Llewellyn made the mistake of annoying Edward I. It also has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the wealth.

    [I got some books on modern history last Christmas].

    Owain Glyn Dwr? That's always been a bit debated, but in theory at least in 1405 he controlled more of Wales than Llewelyn Ein Llyw Olaf (Eng. 'Our Last Prince') ever did.

    Hope you enjoy your books on 'modern' history. If you ever tire of the Middle Ages, I've got some books on the Stuarts you can borrow!
  • If Tories were going to do something about housing, you'd have thought they'd have announced it by now. It appears the party doesn't see the housing issue as a long-term problem for them, and if they want to take that risk they'll find out in 10, 20 years time what the consequences of that will be.

    In any case though, I doubt Labour are signifcantly ahead with under 45s - it's one poll after all. In the GE, Labour did well with 18-24 year olds, but their advantage dissipated with voters over the age of 25, especially males. Where Labour did well was under 45 females. Labour also did badly with CD2Es, which I doubt has changed - and if we rely on stereotypes of the 'White Van Man' - then these groups are middle-aged, at the very least.

    Not surprised that the over 65s are voting Tory in large numbers. Life is pretty much set-up for them under the Tories, in contrast to anyone middle-aged, or younger. Also over 65s are naturally Conservative as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,630
    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    The Comres poll, is a terrible one for Labour, it also highlights the generational gap enormously. In the under 45's Labour is ahead by double digits, in the over 45's the Tories are ahead but the killer one are the over 65's : CON 54, LAB 18, UKIP 16, LD 6.

    So essentially there is no one over the age of 65 voting Labour.

    All these under 45s going Labour are Generation Rent. Cameron really needs to do something about housing. If he does the Tories will sweep to a landslide in 2020, Corbyn or no Corbyn. If he doesn't....
    Indeed, a majority of under 40s will be renting by 2020, certainly most people now need two incomes to even consider a mortgage
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    HYUFD said:

    Right now I'm a Yes, but only because a No will hasten the break-up of the UK.

    I'm a Yes, but view the No hastening the break-up of the UK as a consolation prize if we lose.
    I am a Yes to the EU, provided some reform, and a Yes to the Union too, country comes first!
    Surely it matters what reform rather than just 'some'?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,809
    edited August 2015
    Mr. Doethur, you can't possibly expect me to be familiar with something as recent as 1405! [I make an honourable exception for the Battle of Agincourt].

    Anyway, I stand corrected. In my defence, I've said many times I'm not au fait with modern history. :p

    Edited extra bit: a kind offer, but (as well as currently reading a new book on the Diadochi, huzzah!) I've got a lengthy reading list and I really should be writing more and reading less.

    Got a bit of an awkward book queue forming. I'll be glad when Temple and Treasure come out.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,524
    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    The Comres poll, is a terrible one for Labour, it also highlights the generational gap enormously. In the under 45's Labour is ahead by double digits, in the over 45's the Tories are ahead but the killer one are the over 65's : CON 54, LAB 18, UKIP 16, LD 6.

    So essentially there is no one over the age of 65 voting Labour.

    All these under 45s going Labour are Generation Rent. Cameron really needs to do something about housing. If he does the Tories will sweep to a landslide in 2020, Corbyn or no Corbyn. If he doesn't....
    Hard to do much - but Cameron has brought in Individual Voter Registration so a large chunk of them won't even be on the electoral register and those who are on it are much less likely to vote.
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