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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It takes a nation of millions to hold us back

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It takes a nation of millions to hold us back

Picture yourself for a moment as Nicola Sturgeon. Right now, she presides over a hegemony.  At every level of Scottish politics, the SNP has routed its opponents.  It has 56 out of 59 MPs.  It has an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament.  It has more local authority councillors than any other party.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,848
    first.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241
    Oil.

    heading for $30 a barrel and looking like staying that way for a while.

    The Nats still can't face up to the economics arguments.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    This might be the point at which the SNP tide recedes. A second referendum could lose moderates who endured two years or more of campaigning, as well as ignoring the 'sovereign will of the Scottish people'. But without it, the fired-up chaps desperate to leave the union might jump ship to the Caledonian People's Front.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241
    First Brown, then Miliband D.

    If Labour Nabobs care so much about their country why don't their families live here ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,643
    edited August 2015
    EU migrants getting worried about the prospect of a No vote:

    "Rush for dual-nationality passports as EU migrants fear Brexit
    From work permits to healthcare, pensions to tax, EU citizens in UK and Britons in Europe worry they could be in a precarious position after 2016’s referendum"


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/17/dual-nationality-passports-eu-migrants-fear-brexit-european-union-referendum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044

    Plato said:

    From the Hodges article http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11805916/Labour-MPs-are-now-preparing-to-go-underground-to-resist-the-Corbyn-regime.html

    Speaking to shadow ministers over the weekend, it appears a majority are moving towards the Maquis model. “The key lesson we learnt in the 1980s is you never voluntarily concede ground to the Left,” one said to me. They also pointed out that there are number of practical and constitutional reasons why it was important not relinquish control of the shadow cabinet. Each shadow cabinet position comes with significant financial resources for research and media work. The shadow cabinet also has control over a number of positions on Labour’s ruling NEC. “We haven’t had to check all this stuff for decades," one shadow minister said, “but when you look at the small print of the party rule book the Shadow Cabinet actually has a lot of influence over the party machinery."
    All of which means that the left would be well advised to bring back elections to the shadow cabinet.
    I had thought that was indeed Corbyn's intent?
    Sandpit said:

    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JEO said:

    This sounds like the unravelling of Thatcher's property-owning democracy:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/16/matthew-taylor-we-must-face-difficult-truths-to-solve-housing-crisis

    In 2004, nearly 60% of 25- to 34-year-olds were owner-occupiers; now it’s only just over a third.

    That's a shocking statistic. Major planning reform is needed if it's to be addressed though, along with incentives for people to downsize.
    The most serious threat to Conservative hegemony IMHO.

    The further property ownership levels drop, the more likely the country is to shift to the Left.

    All the polling data certainly backs up your fear.




    The English want detached family homes with a garden. We got this right from c.1920-c.1985.





    And get a serious grip on immigration too. Natch.
    Agree entirely. Planning reform is way overdue, as is probably another Milton Keynes sized new town with associated services. Permission is too hard to get, and comes with too many strings attached.
    Sounds about right. It's at the point where we need some majorly sized builds, not merely relaxing of laws to enable a few dozen here, a few hundred there. And the speed at which it's needed requires some people will have to get hard done by sadly, I'd hate to be one of them, but it really is a, apologies, greater good situation.
  • glwglw Posts: 3,874

    Oil.

    heading for $30 a barrel and looking like staying that way for a while.

    The Nats still can't face up to the economics arguments.

    They had a very poor economic argument at the worst-case scenario of $110 per barrel, God knows how big the hole would be at $30.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,168
    Even if the Nats demand a referendum in 2017 or whatever, I expect Cameron to refuse, on the grounds the SNP said the last vote was a once-in-a-generation event. Then it would go to constitutional lawyers and take years to plod through the courts.

    Given that calling a referendum soon is not a popular option, even in Scotland, Cameron would be on politically thick ice. And fairly safe.

    However for the reasons adduced in this excellent piece (antifrank, where do you find the time to work pro bono for OGH??) I reckon Sturgeon will fudge it, anyhoo. The manifesto will loudly "reserve the right to call a vote when we choose", but she won't call one, unless something drastic happens, like the UK quitting the EU.

    And now I must do some paying work. We're not all as rich as antifrank, able to leisurely write elegant essays for free.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    glw said:

    Oil.

    heading for $30 a barrel and looking like staying that way for a while.

    The Nats still can't face up to the economics arguments.

    They had a very poor economic argument at the worst-case scenario of $110 per barrel, God knows how big the hole would be at $30.
    "La la la la, it's just as well I can't hear you"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    The dominance of the SNP will surely lead to another referendum in time, and their very strength compared to last time would, I'd have thought, make the job easier. If the only issue is the leadership is concerned it might be too soon to ask the question again for those on the fence, and yet their membership is clamouring for it, it's not much of an issue - at the end of the day the membership would probably complaint but be patient if needed if they can be convinced a wait of just a little longer will see them home and their dream fulfilled. We joke about annual referendums and the like, but as pointed out Sturgeon and co are canny enough to think more cautiously about such matters, and with the party doing so well the membership willsurely follow the leadership if they say it needs to wait a little while.

    I am certain there will be another vote by 2020 at the latest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    SeanT said:

    Even if the Nats demand a referendum in 2017 or whatever, I expect Cameron to refuse, on the grounds the SNP said the last vote was a once-in-a-generation event.

    This would be an ideal outcome for the SNP politically speaking.

    We want to have another referendum but the english Tories are stopping us ! It'd suit both Dave and Nicola...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,112
    edited August 2015
    kle4 said:

    All of which means that the left would be well advised to bring back elections to the shadow cabinet.
    I had thought that was indeed Corbyn's intent?
    Sandpit said:

    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    JEO said:

    This sounds like the unravelling of Thatcher's property-owning democracy:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/16/matthew-taylor-we-must-face-difficult-truths-to-solve-housing-crisis

    In 2004, nearly 60% of 25- to 34-year-olds were owner-occupiers; now it’s only just over a third.

    That's a shocking statistic. Major planning reform is needed if it's to be addressed though, along with incentives for people to downsize.
    The most serious threat to Conservative hegemony IMHO.

    The further property ownership levels drop, the more likely the country is to shift to the Left.

    All the polling data certainly backs up your fear.




    The English want detached family homes with a garden. We got this right from c.1920-c.1985.





    And get a serious grip on immigration too. Natch.
    Agree entirely. Planning reform is way overdue, as is probably another Milton Keynes sized new town with associated services. Permission is too hard to get, and comes with too many strings attached.
    Sounds about right. It's at the point where we need some majorly sized builds, not merely relaxing of laws to enable a few dozen here, a few hundred there. And the speed at which it's needed requires some people will have to get hard done by sadly, I'd hate to be one of them, but it really is a, apologies, greater good situation.

    If people are handsomely, very handsomely, compensated, then much of the Nimbyism would disappear. Being stingy with compensation to those affected is a false economy.

    Something wrong with my editing: only the last 2 sentences are mine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited August 2015
    SeanT said:

    Even if the Nats demand a referendum in 2017 or whatever, I expect Cameron to refuse, on the grounds the SNP said the last vote was a once-in-a-generation event. Then it would go to constitutional lawyers and take years to plod through the courts.

    Given that calling a referendum soon is not a popular option, even in Scotland, Cameron would be on politically thick ice. And fairly safe.

    Not necessarily. Sturgeon could call and hold one illegally. Sure, Cameron could say he will ignore the result, or put the army on the streets of Edinburgh and Glasgow, or for the matter of that send in Special Forces to blow up Holyrood. But whether he would be wise to do so is an altogether different question. That is, indeed, the main reason why he gave Scotland a referendum in the first place even though in theory he didn't have to.

    If, in a well-organised national plebiscite, technically legal or not, there was a big majority for independence it's difficult to see how it could be ignored, as the Spanish government are finding out over Catalonia (and indeed, found out over Gibraltar that time they tried to annex it by some casuistic legal device a few years back).

    Cameron's best bet under the circumstances would likely be to concede a second referendum, and blame all the fuss and bother on a bunch of hardline lunatics who can't take an honest answer. That would almost certainly produce an even terser 'no', because one thing people hate more than being told what they must do is being told they chose wrong the first time. That would destroy the independence movement and might also severely damage the SNP, two consummations devoutly to be wished from his point of view.

    Of course the fun would really begin if Sturgeon got her 'lock' on the referendum and the Scots voted for withdrawal from the EU and the English or Welsh didn't. Now there's a glorious counterfactual scenario to play with...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    kle4 said:

    The dominance of the SNP will surely lead to another referendum in time, and their very strength compared to last time would, I'd have thought, make the job easier. If the only issue is the leadership is concerned it might be too soon to ask the question again for those on the fence, and yet their membership is clamouring for it, it's not much of an issue - at the end of the day the membership would probably complaint but be patient if needed if they can be convinced a wait of just a little longer will see them home and their dream fulfilled. We joke about annual referendums and the like, but as pointed out Sturgeon and co are canny enough to think more cautiously about such matters, and with the party doing so well the membership willsurely follow the leadership if they say it needs to wait a little while.

    I am certain there will be another vote by 2020 at the latest.

    Joke about annual referenda? I think not. Westminster would do well to legislate to make them compulsory, perhaps even have them half yearly. Sooner or later the Scots would get the right result.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited August 2015
    From the prior thread:
    rcs1000 said:

    Re UKIP and the EU referendum:

    Those forecasting the demise of UKIP following the EU referendum are, I think, mistaken. The right wing in the UK has split between the metropolitan, socially liberal, internationalist, Tories (TSE, for example), and the more socially conservative, who are concerned with the impact on British society of various external forces (of which the EU is only one).

    This schism on the right will not be easily healed. (Although a Corbyn Labour Party surging the polls might pull them back together, temporarily at least.) It is a breakdown in the traditional alliance that makes up the Conservative Party - between Capital and Country.

    I think this is a gross simplification, and I'm guessing you're not a right winger and are judging it from the outside. For example, I tend towards social conservatism but I'm also internationalist. I'm not sure whether I count as metropolitan, but I live in Kent and work in London.

    My views on the EU, like most of my fellow conservatives, are entirely pragmatic: are the benefits worth the costs? This is the difference between conservatism and other belief systems. It is based on accumulated judgment and experience rather than abstract first principles.

    In terms of pros of the EU, we get low bureaucracy exports to the EU, decision-making input into rule-setting, easy travel to other EU nations, and certain prestige effect. In terms of cons, we get high membership fees, higher food costs, high levels of unskilled immigration, a lot of unnecessary regulation, high membership fees, an unchecked judiciary, and constricted trade elsewhere.

    Ten years ago, the benefits outweighed the costs. But right now the benefits are declining (such as being shut out of decision making by the Eurozone; the value of EU trade as the Eurocrisis goes on and on), and the costs have grown substantially (higher levels of immigration; membership fees going up arbitrarily; increased judicial activism; losing out on trade with emerging markets). Now it seems like the costs outweigh the benefits. Perhaps David Cameron will be able to redress the balance. Perhaps he will not. But my views, and I suspect the views of most right-wingers, will be focused on that, rather than any ideology.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    I fully agree with Nicola Sturgeon's comment:
    “if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”

    I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.

    Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    Disraeli said:

    I fully agree with Nicola Sturgeon's comment:
    “if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”

    I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.

    Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.

    Na, they'll just threaten to leave if they don't get their way. Much like the UK is doing... titters
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Reports of more bombs in Bangkok - one successfully defused...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Mr. Disraeli, indeed.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Happy Birthday!
    RodCrosby said:

    Reports of more bombs in Bangkok - one successfully defused...

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    http://www.theweek.co.uk/labour-leader/62858/labour-leader-plots-to-stop-jeremy-corbyn-look-doomed-to-fail
    "Anti-Corbyn Labour MPs are discussing two alternative strategies should he be victorious on September 12, according to Dan Hodges.

    *The Free French strategy: Labour MPs would withdraw all support, refusing to serve in his shadow cabinet and declining to observe the Labour whip. Just as Charles de Gaulle and his Free French forces retreated to exile in Britain after the Germans invaded France in WW2, returning only on D-Day to liberate their homeland, so Labour MPs would hang back until Corbyn gives up and a new election has to be called.

    *The Maquis strategy: Another direct reference to WW2, this involves "staying behind enemy lines" and fighting the enemy from within, as the French Resistance guerillas chose to do. Senior MPs would exploit Corbyn's promise to hold elections for all shadow cabinet posts, and proceed to oppose his more radical policies and "start to construct an independent base" within the Parliamentary Labour Party from which to launch a coup when the time is right."
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,898
    Slightly O/T

    I saw a disturbing piece on Countryfile yesterday. Apparently, there's a bill going through Holyrood to reduce the ownership rights of Scottish landowners - opening the doors for a land grab a la Zimbabwe.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Mr. Rog, I've heard snippets about that from time to time on Twitter. Unsure of the detail, though.
  • Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    Well I'd agree there. Both UKIP and Labour had dismal elections.
  • @JEO You're a social conservative? That's actually a bit of a surprise!
  • Disraeli said:

    I fully agree with Nicola Sturgeon's comment:
    “if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”

    I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.

    Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.

    Isn't it strange that the SNP which is so attached to the EU has a horror for the Euro and a great affection for the Bank of England's pound sterling. Maybe they're just full of it.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited August 2015
    Blue_rog said:

    Slightly O/T

    I saw a disturbing piece on Countryfile yesterday. Apparently, there's a bill going through Holyrood to reduce the ownership rights of Scottish landowners - opening the doors for a land grab a la Zimbabwe.

    Will Trump's golf courses be exempt?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,443
    RodCrosby said:

    http://www.theweek.co.uk/labour-leader/62858/labour-leader-plots-to-stop-jeremy-corbyn-look-doomed-to-fail
    "Anti-Corbyn Labour MPs are discussing two alternative strategies should he be victorious on September 12, according to Dan Hodges.

    *The Free French strategy: Labour MPs would withdraw all support, refusing to serve in his shadow cabinet and declining to observe the Labour whip. Just as Charles de Gaulle and his Free French forces retreated to exile in Britain after the Germans invaded France in WW2, returning only on D-Day to liberate their homeland, so Labour MPs would hang back until Corbyn gives up and a new election has to be called.

    *The Maquis strategy: Another direct reference to WW2, this involves "staying behind enemy lines" and fighting the enemy from within, as the French Resistance guerillas chose to do. Senior MPs would exploit Corbyn's promise to hold elections for all shadow cabinet posts, and proceed to oppose his more radical policies and "start to construct an independent base" within the Parliamentary Labour Party from which to launch a coup when the time is right."

    Either of those would make 'Militant' look tame.
  • isamisam Posts: 24,352
    edited August 2015

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    Well I'd agree there. Both UKIP and Labour had dismal elections.
    Number of seats +1
    Number of votes +3 million
    Share of vote +9.5%

    Whatever happened to the good old days?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,643
    edited August 2015
    O/T:

    Cumbria and Staffordshire come out well of this survey of places in the UK that combine affordable housing with a good standard of living. Funnily enough, both counties had some of the biggest swings to the Conservatives at the general election:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3200706/Map-shows-best-places-live-Britain-affordability-meets-happiness.html

    Top 10:

    Allerdale
    Ribble Valley
    Copeland
    Staffs Moorlands
    Stockton
    North Lincs
    Darlington
    East Cambs
    Stafford
    Western Isles


    Bottom 10:

    Haringey
    Lewisham
    Brentwood
    Brent
    East Hampshire
    Oxford
    Ealing
    Hammersmith & Fulham
    Enfield
    Guildford
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    edited August 2015
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited August 2015

    @JEO You're a social conservative? That's actually a bit of a surprise!

    Yes, I'm a strong believer in married two-parent families as the optimum social model. I also think children and young people need to be raised with firm and consistent boundaries. I also worry about the extent of integration among certain cultural groups in the UK.

    How come you found that such a surprise?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    Well I'd agree there. Both UKIP and Labour had dismal elections.
    Number of seats +1
    Number of votes +3 million
    Share of vote +9.5%

    Whatever happened to the good old days?
    Farage has misplayed his hand a touch post GE I think, the resignation followed by unresignation was a bit daft. UKIP need to get all hands to the pump for the locals and Euro Ref.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942

    Disraeli said:

    I fully agree with Nicola Sturgeon's comment:
    “if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”

    I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.

    Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.

    Isn't it strange that the SNP which is so attached to the EU has a horror for the Euro and a great affection for the Bank of England's pound sterling. Maybe they're just full of it.
    The millstone sterling, you mean?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,721
    RodCrosby said:

    http://www.theweek.co.uk/labour-leader/62858/labour-leader-plots-to-stop-jeremy-corbyn-look-doomed-to-fail
    "Anti-Corbyn Labour MPs are discussing two alternative strategies should he be victorious on September 12, according to Dan Hodges.

    *The Free French strategy: Labour MPs would withdraw all support, refusing to serve in his shadow cabinet and declining to observe the Labour whip. Just as Charles de Gaulle and his Free French forces retreated to exile in Britain after the Germans invaded France in WW2, returning only on D-Day to liberate their homeland, so Labour MPs would hang back until Corbyn gives up and a new election has to be called.

    *The Maquis strategy: Another direct reference to WW2, this involves "staying behind enemy lines" and fighting the enemy from within, as the French Resistance guerillas chose to do. Senior MPs would exploit Corbyn's promise to hold elections for all shadow cabinet posts, and proceed to oppose his more radical policies and "start to construct an independent base" within the Parliamentary Labour Party from which to launch a coup when the time is right."

    I would imagine the labour Maquis would be as about as successful as the ones in Star Trek...ie not very, and a bunch of them would probably end up lost on the other side of the galaxy.
  • RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    I fully agree with Nicola Sturgeon's comment:
    “if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”

    I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.

    Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.

    Isn't it strange that the SNP which is so attached to the EU has a horror for the Euro and a great affection for the Bank of England's pound sterling. Maybe they're just full of it.
    The millstone sterling, you mean?
    In case you missed it last night. Gordon Brown to Benny Hill

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.

    Has anyone ever screwed up a leadership election as badly as Andy Burnham ?!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    Pulpstar said:

    Has anyone ever screwed up a leadership election as badly as Andy Burnham ?!

    David Miliband
  • On topic, John Rentoul called this piece by Antifrank "outstanding"

    He's right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.

    So there's some value in Yvette at 8/1 as opposed to Andy at 7/2. If that story's right those two should probably be the other way round.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,721

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.

    Problem is I would imagine that a fair few of burnham second prefs would be corbyn.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Plato said:

    Happy Birthday!

    RodCrosby said:

    Reports of more bombs in Bangkok - one successfully defused...

    Cheers!
  • @JEO I find social conservatives tend to be extremely judgemental, and you didn't come across that way.

    On two parent families I'd agree - I think that's the best model too, although I don't agree with demonising single-parents, but trying to create a society were two-parent families can occur as much as possible. I feel one parent cannot do everything. On marriage, I'm neither here nor there with marriage - a lot of people use the security of marriage to mistreat their partner though, which is why I probably wouldn't get married.

    On boundaries - are you in favour or physical punishment like smacking? Personally, I don't agree with it.
    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    Well I'd agree there. Both UKIP and Labour had dismal elections.
    Number of seats +1
    Number of votes +3 million
    Share of vote +9.5%

    Whatever happened to the good old days?
    As I said previously:
    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,573
    edited August 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Even if the Nats demand a referendum in 2017 or whatever, I expect Cameron to refuse, on the grounds the SNP said the last vote was a once-in-a-generation event.

    This would be an ideal outcome for the SNP politically speaking.

    We want to have another referendum but the english Tories are stopping us ! It'd suit both Dave and Nicola...
    But it wouldn't really matter much anymore now that all bar 3 seats in Scotland are SNP-held. The pro-Union parties have only a single seat left to lose - very little leverage there for the SNP. In a way the SNP has been a victim of its success here - had it emerged from the May election with 35 seats with Labour on -say - 20 , it would be much better placed to put pressure on Labour to go along with a second referendum in the near future. Labour has nothing now to gain from that at all , and I would like too see it and the LibDems support Cameron in ruling out another vote in this Parliament. That would not necessarily prevent the SNP proceeding with a consultative referendum without the consent of Westminster , but were they to do so I hope the pro-Union parties would encourage their supporters to boycott it and so destroy its legitimacy.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.

    Has anyone ever screwed up a leadership election as badly as Andy Burnham ?!
    Michael Portillo
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Reports: Bangkok bombs were placed inside the shrine and on the Skytrain...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    Pulpstar said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.

    Has anyone ever screwed up a leadership election as badly as Andy Burnham ?!
    Bit early to say, as he might yet win. He's not appealing for Corbyn's 2nd preferences (as some have disparagingly accused) - he needs direct switchers now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Has anyone ever screwed up a leadership election as badly as Andy Burnham ?!

    David Miliband
    No, I think what Andy is managing to do far outweighs the elder Miliband's non achievement at the last Labour election. He was squeaked by Ed, Andy has let a total non runner into the race and could end up coming third.

    He's made the elder Miliband look good.
  • Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Has anyone ever screwed up a leadership election as badly as Andy Burnham ?!

    David Miliband
    Actually, I think David Miliband was just unlucky. Ed's advantage over him was so small, and almost entirely down to the unions and Labour's bizarre system of giving individuals multiple votes.

    Meanwhile Burnham will be on the back-end of a landslide defeat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    JEO said:

    @JEO You're a social conservative? That's actually a bit of a surprise!

    Yes, I'm a strong believer in married two-parent families as the optimum social model. I also think children and young people need to be raised with firm and consistent boundaries. I also worry about the extent of integration among certain cultural groups in the UK.
    I agree with that, and your previous comment. The pragmatist's view is certainly heading away from the EU in recent years. Interesting times ahead.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited August 2015
    Earthquake in San Francisco...

    Magnitude 4.0
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    He's a bit of a twatpolemicist, but this is quite amusing:
    Hey, folks. Meet the economics 'genius' behind Jeremy Corbyn by Tim Worstall
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    Pulpstar said:

    No, I think what Andy is managing to do far outweighs the elder Miliband's non achievement at the last Labour election. He was squeaked by Ed, Andy has let a total non runner into the race and could end up coming third.

    He's made the elder Miliband look good.

    David Miliband could have won, but threw it away, and he could have been Prime Minister

    Andy Burnham should have been beaten anyway, and will never be Prime Minister
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Don't all rush at once..but which group would have a bomb grudge against the Hindu religion in Thialand
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Mr. Pulpstar, indeed. I do wonder if Burnham would be worse for Labour than Corbyn.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT Does anyone know who's funding Tom Watson's campaign - just got a very glossy full colour booklet from him, Corbyn's feels like a charity hand-out in comparison.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    edited August 2015

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.

    Problem is I would imagine that a fair few of burnham second prefs would be corbyn.
    Yes - Burnham is a "bad bank" - if he fails, then the whole system may go down...

    Then again, if he succeeds, Labour have Andy Burnham as leader. Heads the Tories win, tails Labour lose...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    I fully agree with Nicola Sturgeon's comment:
    “if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”

    I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.

    Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.

    Isn't it strange that the SNP which is so attached to the EU has a horror for the Euro and a great affection for the Bank of England's pound sterling. Maybe they're just full of it.
    The millstone sterling, you mean?
    In case you missed it last night. Gordon Brown to Benny Hill

    I did! And bravo!!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,112

    Don't all rush at once..but which group would have a bomb grudge against the Hindu religion in Thialand

    Wasn't the bomb placed at a Buddhist shrine?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    RodCrosby said:

    Earthquake in San Francisco...

    Magnitude 4.0

    Your reporter on the scene! They've temporarily stopped the train so I delayed in getting to work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    RodCrosby said:

    Earthquake in San Francisco...

    4.2 apparently. Shouldn't be too serious, let's hope it's not a foreshock to a bigger one.

    Oh, and happy birthday Rod!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,974
    edited August 2015
    Afternoon all - An excellent article Antifrank, many thanks.

    Looks as though the all-conquering Nicola Sturgeon is also prone to fudging things.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    Oh, and pace John Rentoul, this is seriously good stuff from Antifrank, as per usual.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Cyclefree ..The reports say it is a Hindu shrine..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Earthquake in San Francisco...

    4.2 apparently. Shouldn't be too serious, let's hope it's not a foreshock to a bigger one.

    Oh, and happy birthday Rod!
    Looks like it was on the Hayward fault, which is 'due' for a big one. Hopefully it's not today.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    O/T one for our bevy of military historians
    http://www.tickld.com/x/13-complete-soldiers-kits-from-the-armies
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 5,970

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    Well I'd agree there. Both UKIP and Labour had dismal elections.
    Ms Apocalypse, I would like to apologise for my unpleasant remarks the other day; I hope you can forgive me - I should know better than to shoot from the hip and I shall endeavour to rise above my base self in future.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    In the grand scheme of things it makes very little difference whether UKIP won one seat or won six (the absolute maximum that the party could have got in May). The party's presence in the Commons would be marginal with either number. In terms of vote share, 13% was at the top end of expectations, and for a party that's trying to get off the ground, the way forward is to win votes, then members, then council seats, then Parliamentary seats. No one comes from nowhere to win dozens of Parliamentary seats in one go (Labour and the SNP certainly didn't.)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Earthquake in San Francisco...

    4.2 apparently. Shouldn't be too serious, let's hope it's not a foreshock to a bigger one.

    Oh, and happy birthday Rod!
    Looks like it was on the Hayward fault, which is 'due' for a big one. Hopefully it's not today.
    The area due for a really big one is the Pacific Northwest:

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

    The newcomers took the land they encountered at face value, and at face value it was a find: vast, cheap, temperate, fertile, and, to all appearances, remarkably benign.

    A century and a half elapsed before anyone had any inkling that the Pacific Northwest was not a quiet place but a place in a long period of quiet.
  • RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Earthquake in San Francisco...

    4.2 apparently. Shouldn't be too serious, let's hope it's not a foreshock to a bigger one.

    Oh, and happy birthday Rod!
    Looks like it was on the Hayward fault, which is 'due' for a big one. Hopefully it's not today.
    Stay safe Rob!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,112
    Re the Free French nonsense by Labour MPs: there is an impeccable Labour precedent for this and that's Livingstone himself, who manoeuvred himself into the GLC leadership by a coup after Labour, led by someone else, won.

    But I think it will be very difficult for those MPs opposed to Corbyn to do something effective which will not be - or look - anti-democratic. Interesting times ahead for Labour, whoever wins.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Cyclefree said:

    Don't all rush at once..but which group would have a bomb grudge against the Hindu religion in Thialand

    Wasn't the bomb placed at a Buddhist shrine?
    Sam Kiley on Sky has just described it as a "Hindu mosque." !!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    RodCrosby said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Don't all rush at once..but which group would have a bomb grudge against the Hindu religion in Thialand

    Wasn't the bomb placed at a Buddhist shrine?
    Sam Kiley on Sky has just described it as a "Hindu mosque." !!
    LOL. Never wrong for long!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Mr. F, disagree. UKIP went backwards, instead of adding seats. On 6, it'd have hope in 2020 of becoming larger than the Lib Dems.
  • calumcalum Posts: 2,901
    An interesting comparison of 2 very different court cases, suffice to say it would appear that in the UK today the rich get better justice than the poor:

    https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/a-small-gesture-of-solidarity#/story
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    edited August 2015

    Cyclefree ..The reports say it is a Hindu shrine..

    I think Hinduism is to Buddhism as Islam is to Judaism/Christianity - common origins.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 9,112

    Cyclefree ..The reports say it is a Hindu shrine..

    OK, thank you.

    Does Thailand have a terrorist problem? All I know about is the Bali bomb.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519

    Don't all rush at once..but which group would have a bomb grudge against the Hindu religion in Thialand

    Methodists, surely?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Oh, and pace John Rentoul, this is seriously good stuff from Antifrank, as per usual.

    Pace Tissue_price, i thought pace was used as shorthand to refer to somebody with whom you disagree!

    ;-)

    But the sentiment is noted, a fine piece by Antifrank.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Mr. Crosby, ha, that's rather good. Reminds me of the 'good Jewish boy' on The Apprentice a few years ago. He was tasked with acquiring a kosher chicken, and got one that was halal instead.

    Mr. Pulpstar, not sure about that, though it's not my forte.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 2 minutes ago

    Understand we should be getting some PLP Cooper switchers later on today. Andy Burnham speech this morning said to have gone down badly.

    EDIT: today's are basically the last moves of this election, as far as I can see. If Yvette has a chunk of MPs lined up to do something dramatic, then fair play to her.

    Has anyone ever screwed up a leadership election as badly as Andy Burnham ?!
    David Davis?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,443
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    Well I'd agree there. Both UKIP and Labour had dismal elections.
    Number of seats +1
    Number of votes +3 million
    Share of vote +9.5%

    Whatever happened to the good old days?
    Farage has misplayed his hand a touch post GE I think, the resignation followed by unresignation was a bit daft. UKIP need to get all hands to the pump for the locals and Euro Ref.
    UKIP haven't recently won a seat which wasn't fought by a defecting MP. Plus they lost one of those, so before May 2015 to after May 2015
    Number of seats: -1
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Dr. Prasannan, very unfair on Davis. Corbyn only got on the ballot because Burnham showed all the tactical insight of the Romans at the Battle of Arausio.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    On topic (for a change) the other factor is how much the SNP candidates want IndyRef2. So far 2 sitting MSP's have been deselected by their local party. At least one of them wanted another go
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,516
    edited August 2015
    Just when we all thought the Labour leadership race couldn't get any more weird, now we have David Miliband turning up - and backing Kendall! What the...

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    @JEO I find social conservatives tend to be extremely judgemental, and you didn't come across that way.

    I'm a social conservative, I'm just not mad at anyone about it. :)

    One of the things I'm socially conservative about is old fashioned politeness and good manners. I would be a hypocrite if I believed that and did not do my best to be respectful to those who disagree with me.

    On two parent families I'd agree - I think that's the best model too, although I don't agree with demonising single-parents, but trying to create a society were two-parent families can occur as much as possible. I feel one parent cannot do everything. On marriage, I'm neither here nor there with marriage - a lot of people use the security of marriage to mistreat their partner though, which is why I probably wouldn't get married.

    On boundaries - are you in favour or physical punishment like smacking? Personally, I don't agree with it.

    I feel like opposing marriage based on its abuse is like opposing the existence of police force because of police abuse. The right approach is to address the abuse, rather than the institution. I don't like how many people think of marriage as "just a bit of paper" when it is nothing of the sort. The very act of being prepared to publicly commit your lives and everything you have to each other I think achieves a major psychological effect. There's a tremendous sense of relationship stability and happy contentment that comes from locking a relationship in legally.

    In terms of smacking, I am instinctively opposed as I have never needed to do it with my children. However, I am aware that the more unruly teens tend to have far less respect for authority figures these days than they used to, and this correlates quite closely to the decline in smacking. But as I lean against, I'd like to see if we could repair this with bringing back non-physical discipline to schools on a more consistent basis first.
  • RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    I fully agree with Nicola Sturgeon's comment:
    “if in Scotland we faced exit from the EU, effectively against our will – something which the polling suggests could happen – it would not be at all surprising if that caused a swell of demand for a further independence referendum.”

    I understand her anguish that Scotland may find itself outvoted by the other nations of the Union, and having decisions foisted on them for which Scotland has not voted.

    Well she'd better get used to it - if Scotland does indeed join the EU post independence then she'll find this sort of situation cropping up quite a lot.

    Isn't it strange that the SNP which is so attached to the EU has a horror for the Euro and a great affection for the Bank of England's pound sterling. Maybe they're just full of it.
    The millstone sterling, you mean?
    In case you missed it last night. Gordon Brown to Benny Hill

    Gordo - the fastest ex-Labour Leader in the West!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,252

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    This might be the point at which the SNP tide recedes. A second referendum could lose moderates who endured two years or more of campaigning, as well as ignoring the 'sovereign will of the Scottish people'. But without it, the fired-up chaps desperate to leave the union might jump ship to the Caledonian People's Front.

    MD your knowledge of Scottish politics is a hoot. You are nearly as bad as Scottp.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197

    Oh, and pace John Rentoul, this is seriously good stuff from Antifrank, as per usual.

    Pace Tissue_price, i thought pace was used as shorthand to refer to somebody with whom you disagree!

    ;-)

    But the sentiment is noted, a fine piece by Antifrank.
    Pace myself, you are correct. How embarrassing. I only slipped it in as otherwise I had two "as per"s :-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,252
    John_M said:

    Indigo said:

    FPT:

    isam said:

    3% to 13% in five years... amazing what a dismal campaign can do

    25 MPs - 5 MPs forecasts, to only actual 1 MP = plus losing a seat, plus your party leader failing to win a seat for the nth time. That's a dismal campaign. Unfortunately in FPTP, vote-share, unless accompanied by considerable seat total, doesn't mean much.
    I think you will find dropping from 57 seats to 8 is the correct definition of a dismal election ;)
    Well I'd agree there. Both UKIP and Labour had dismal elections.
    Ms Apocalypse, I would like to apologise for my unpleasant remarks the other day; I hope you can forgive me - I should know better than to shoot from the hip and I shall endeavour to rise above my base self in future.
    Wimp
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,550
    edited August 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree ..The reports say it is a Hindu shrine..

    OK, thank you.

    Does Thailand have a terrorist problem? All I know about is the Bali bomb.

    Muslim insurgency in its southern-most provinces, predominantly inhabited by ethnic Malays. The said provinces were formerly part of the Malay states, divided ultimately between Britain (Malaya, now Malaysia) and Siam (now Thailand)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Siamese_Treaty_of_1909
  • calumcalum Posts: 2,901
    I think the SNP will likely have a second referendum in their manifesto which would only be triggered by an unspecified "material event" - already Sturgeon has mentioned EU ref as an example, another might be Trident renewal. The SNP would not want to be specific in their manifesto of what would constitute a "material event", to leave them with maximum room for manoeuvre.

    I think the SNP's real aim is for the UK to become a federal state before any final push for independence. This would resolve many issues - including EVEL, currency and memberships of International Bodies - and would give Scotland the economic levers to grow its economy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,623
    edited August 2015
    AndyJS said:

    EU migrants getting worried about the prospect of a No vote:

    "Rush for dual-nationality passports as EU migrants fear Brexit
    From work permits to healthcare, pensions to tax, EU citizens in UK and Britons in Europe worry they could be in a precarious position after 2016’s referendum"


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/17/dual-nationality-passports-eu-migrants-fear-brexit-european-union-referendum

    I know a couple of very senior City people from other EU countries who are going through the process of getting British citizenship right now. The view being: if it's going to be a lot harder to get British citizenship (residence, etc.) in future, then far better to be covered.

    EDIT: just to add, these people aren't planning on staying here forever, but getting a British passport seems a useful precaution.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,252
    RobD said:

    glw said:

    Oil.

    heading for $30 a barrel and looking like staying that way for a while.

    The Nats still can't face up to the economics arguments.

    They had a very poor economic argument at the worst-case scenario of $110 per barrel, God knows how big the hole would be at $30.
    "La la la la, it's just as well I can't hear you"
    No hole as we would not be subsidising the loan junkies in the south. We would live within our means.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    EU migrants getting worried about the prospect of a No vote:

    "Rush for dual-nationality passports as EU migrants fear Brexit
    From work permits to healthcare, pensions to tax, EU citizens in UK and Britons in Europe worry they could be in a precarious position after 2016’s referendum"


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/17/dual-nationality-passports-eu-migrants-fear-brexit-european-union-referendum

    I know a couple of very senior City people from other EU countries who are going through the process of getting British citizenship right now. The view being: if it's going to be a lot harder to get British citizenship (residence, etc.) in future, then far better to be covered.
    Part of me sees this as a positive thing. Committing themselves to become British nationals, and undergoing the citizenship exam (as weak as it is), is good for integration in my book.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Earthquake in San Francisco...

    4.2 apparently. Shouldn't be too serious, let's hope it's not a foreshock to a bigger one.

    Oh, and happy birthday Rod!
    Looks like it was on the Hayward fault, which is 'due' for a big one. Hopefully it's not today.
    The area due for a really big one is the Pacific Northwest:

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

    The newcomers took the land they encountered at face value, and at face value it was a find: vast, cheap, temperate, fertile, and, to all appearances, remarkably benign.

    A century and a half elapsed before anyone had any inkling that the Pacific Northwest was not a quiet place but a place in a long period of quiet.
    So I'm not moving to Seattle anytime soon!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,207
    edited August 2015
    Blue_rog said:

    Slightly O/T

    I saw a disturbing piece on Countryfile yesterday. Apparently, there's a bill going through Holyrood to reduce the ownership rights of Scottish landowners - opening the doors for a land grab a la Zimbabwe.

    My friend who has a small island just off Harris (nothing massive - he bought it for about £2m a few years ago after he sold his company) is spitting about it. There's a real risk that he could lose his holiday home, despite the fact that he has invested in it, and created employment for a dozen people there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,643
    RodCrosby said:

    Reports: Bangkok bombs were placed inside the shrine and on the Skytrain...

    Did the bomb go off on the Skytrain? If so it will have caused large numbers of casualties. That part of the system is always busy.
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