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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Corbyn price on Betfair edges out a touch following com

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Corbyn price on Betfair edges out a touch following comments by the YouGov boss

Kellner clearly sees a lot more polling and other data than is made public and my guess is that hs comment on the World at One was not taken out of the air but is based on something.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410
    Well, that's a helpful intervention!
  • He knows something and is prepared to risk his job by leaking it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410
    Do we really think all those tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands? - who signed up specifically to vote for Jeremy are getting cold feet? Can't see it myself.

    It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197

    He knows something and is prepared to risk his job by leaking it?

    I think he's trying to un-risk it, actually.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197

    Do we really think all those tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands? - who signed up specifically to vote for Jeremy are getting cold feet? Can't see it myself.

    It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.

    Jeremy just winning. Ideally by 3 votes.
  • Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    For Registered Supporters (supporters who have paid £3 to register themselves):

    You will receive an email containing a link and two-part security details to vote online. You will only be able to vote online.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,064
    edited August 2015
    He also said he had no idea who is ahead between Cooper and Burnham.
  • Perhaps it is the same data but YouGov reconsidering how unconfident they are, given the difficulty of getting a balanced cross section of the Labour electorate and their certainty to vote.

    For example we know that younger people are less likely to vote than they claim.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515

    It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.

    Close enough either way for everyone to doubt the whole process would be the funniest result as a disinterested bystander.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    To get one election wrong may be regarded as a misfortune; two looks like carelessness.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,650
    FPT: What about Romania/Hungary/Slovakia?

    Stag do got out of hand?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    Wow, so the £3 votes are online? No way to rig that at all, no sir.


  • Also when did UK or English forces enter:

    Romania?
    Slovakia?
    Hungary?
    Kazakhstan?

    I'm imagining Kazakhstan would have been Great Game/Crimean war stuff.

    TBF to the bloke:

    "Only a comparatively small proportion of the total in Mr Laycock's list of invaded states actually formed an official part of the empire.The remainder have been included because the British were found to have achieved some sort of military presence in the territory – however transitory – either through force, the threat of force, negotiation or payment.

    Incursions by British pirates, privateers or armed explorers have also been included, provided they were operating with the approval of their government.The research lists countries based on their current national boundaries and names. Many of the invasions took place when these did not apply."
    No British forces entered that far north during the Great Game or during the Crimean War.

    Also he forgot the British presence 1810-1812 on the Swedish island of Hano (which I mentioned earlier)!
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,161
    Sorry to repeat, but this was my reply to my good chum Pulps from the previous thread who is asking me if I've had a Dan Hodges conversion.


    I guess I have Pulps. The Corbyn factor has stimulated some kind of deep rooted post traumatic stress syndrome for me that has just hit me like a bolt of unwanted lightning. I suddenly remember the 1980's- the branch meetings, Trots talking utter shyte, arguing for endless hours over the wording of some resolution or other.

    The Trots are a pain in the bloody arse. And mostly as thick as pig shit- they don't listen to anything. They read the Communist Manifesto and got indoctrinated without questioning anything else. But worse they made any party gathering about as fun as spending three hours sticking needles in your eyes.

    And now- the Trots are back. I cannot believe it. Arghhhhh.........
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,936
    Go Cooper!
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,064

    Perhaps it is the same data but YouGov reconsidering how unconfident they are, given the difficulty of getting a balanced cross section of the Labour electorate and their certainty to vote.

    For example we know that younger people are less likely to vote than they claim.

    But there's uncertainty in that as well, if you've actively paid £3 to be part of the process, surely you are highly likely to vote, no matter what your demographic?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,936
    tyson said:

    Sorry to repeat, but this was my reply to my good chum Pulps from the previous thread who is asking me if I've had a Dan Hodges conversion.


    I guess I have Pulps. The Corbyn factor has stimulated some kind of deep rooted post traumatic stress syndrome for me that has just hit me like a bolt of unwanted lightning. I suddenly remember the 1980's- the branch meetings, Trots talking utter shyte, arguing for endless hours over the wording of some resolution or other.

    The Trots are a pain in the bloody arse. And mostly as thick as pig shit- they don't listen to anything. They read the Communist Manifesto and got indoctrinated without questioning anything else. But worse they made any party gathering about as fun as spending three hours sticking needles in your eyes.

    And now- the Trots are back. I cannot believe it. Arghhhhh.........

    Let's hope others are having similar thoughts at the last moment.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Something I've not seen commented on is that the membership of SLAB might now be known (or at least an upper limit).

    Several sources seem to indicate that Kezia dugdale got 5,217 votes to become leader of SLAB. As she got 72% of a vote which was 60% turnout, this means that the grand total of the electorate for SLAB leader was : -

    12,076

    Now this includes those voters who paid their £3 and eligible Union affiliates. The UK wide numbers indicate that this is about half the total electorate. Perhaps it is likely that in Scotland that number is lower but it's hard to be sure.

    What we do know is that it must be below 12,000 and could be as low as 6,000,

    Put into perspective the Scottish Greens have 9,000 members, the Scottish Tories have 11,000. The Liberals might be higher than 4,000 but as there isn't an update since before the election I can find, it's not clear if they have benefited in Scotland from their recent "surge" in membership.

    The SNP have 104,000.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Do we really think all those tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands? - who signed up specifically to vote for Jeremy are getting cold feet? Can't see it myself.

    It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.

    Jeremy just winning. Ideally by 3 votes.
    Actually, the bigger his majority, the harder it will be to remove him. We either want Corbyn by a landslide or Burnham by a paper thin margin.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,064
    MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    Would surely have been sensible not to get involved in polling this leadership race at all.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 13,099

    He knows something and is prepared to risk his job by leaking it?

    Sounds more like a weather forecaster saying there's a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and when it then stays dry, he says 'told you it might'.

    No-one can prove what the real position was last week however people very much will be able to say what the scores are right now. An attack of doubt is very handy in such circumstances to a pollster who didn't have the best of elections (not that he was the only one there).

    Ignoring Kellner's comments, do we have any reason otherwise to assume that Burnham, Cooper or Kendall have improved since last week? Only if you think the grandees weighing in over the weekend will have made a difference. I can't see why it should have - so the safest assumption to work on is surely that they haven't. In any case, if their intervention has marginally damaged Corbyn, the others are surely even more damaged by their attacks on each other.

    1.43 strikes me as excellent value.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    tyson said:

    Sorry to repeat, but this was my reply to my good chum Pulps from the previous thread who is asking me if I've had a Dan Hodges conversion.


    I guess I have Pulps. The Corbyn factor has stimulated some kind of deep rooted post traumatic stress syndrome for me that has just hit me like a bolt of unwanted lightning. I suddenly remember the 1980's- the branch meetings, Trots talking utter shyte, arguing for endless hours over the wording of some resolution or other.

    The Trots are a pain in the bloody arse. And mostly as thick as pig shit- they don't listen to anything. They read the Communist Manifesto and got indoctrinated without questioning anything else. But worse they made any party gathering about as fun as spending three hours sticking needles in your eyes.

    And now- the Trots are back. I cannot believe it. Arghhhhh.........

    The sensible wing of Labour must really be wondering what the hell just happened. It's been a 100 day slow motion car crash and it is still a long way from being over.

    Some value in Labour majority at next election 4.2 on Betfair or Labour most seats at 3.2. Tories could yet still screw up over Europe.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097

    tyson said:

    Sorry to repeat, but this was my reply to my good chum Pulps from the previous thread who is asking me if I've had a Dan Hodges conversion.


    I guess I have Pulps. The Corbyn factor has stimulated some kind of deep rooted post traumatic stress syndrome for me that has just hit me like a bolt of unwanted lightning. I suddenly remember the 1980's- the branch meetings, Trots talking utter shyte, arguing for endless hours over the wording of some resolution or other.

    The Trots are a pain in the bloody arse. And mostly as thick as pig shit- they don't listen to anything. They read the Communist Manifesto and got indoctrinated without questioning anything else. But worse they made any party gathering about as fun as spending three hours sticking needles in your eyes.

    And now- the Trots are back. I cannot believe it. Arghhhhh.........

    Let's hope others are having similar thoughts at the last moment.
    NO, NO AND NO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,936
    JEO said:

    Do we really think all those tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands? - who signed up specifically to vote for Jeremy are getting cold feet? Can't see it myself.

    It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.

    Jeremy just winning. Ideally by 3 votes.
    Actually, the bigger his majority, the harder it will be to remove him. We either want Corbyn by a landslide or Burnham by a paper thin margin.
    The question will be whether a slim win by Cooper/Burnham means everything calms down as the summer madness ends, or whether this a genuine sea-change in Labour core support and years of rows, splits and arguments ensue. You can probably tell from my previous postings that I am firmly in the former camp.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,410
    MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    I'm not sure how going from "Jeremy - landslide" to "er...dunno mate!" in a week fills anyone with confidence that they now know what they are doing!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,274
    edited August 2015
    JEO said:

    Do we really think all those tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands? - who signed up specifically to vote for Jeremy are getting cold feet? Can't see it myself.

    It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.

    Jeremy just winning. Ideally by 3 votes.
    Actually, the bigger his majority, the harder it will be to remove him. We either want Corbyn by a landslide or Burnham by a paper thin margin.
    Though Labour are impotent at removing leaders anyway, plus if its too hard to remove him (as a landslide would make it) then they'd not be so riven with in-fighting and divisions.

    Corbyn by a wafer thin margin will see him in place, but the party will be wracked with in-fighting.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    OchEye said:
    The death of the middle (one can see it in the UK as well) is the big danger and can give an argument to both the right and the left.

    As Darlene said in the cold open if the latest episode of Mr Robot** "There's no middle any more. Just rich and poor."

    **One of the best series I've ever seen and the TV highlight of the year
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,550
    edited August 2015
    tyson said:

    Sorry to repeat, but this was my reply to my good chum Pulps from the previous thread who is asking me if I've had a Dan Hodges conversion.


    I guess I have Pulps. The Corbyn factor has stimulated some kind of deep rooted post traumatic stress syndrome for me that has just hit me like a bolt of unwanted lightning. I suddenly remember the 1980's- the branch meetings, Trots talking utter shyte, arguing for endless hours over the wording of some resolution or other.

    The Trots are a pain in the bloody arse. And mostly as thick as pig shit- they don't listen to anything. They read the Communist Manifesto and got indoctrinated without questioning anything else. But worse they made any party gathering about as fun as spending three hours sticking needles in your eyes.

    And now- the Trots are back. I cannot believe it. Arghhhhh.........

    Tyson!

    You should know that Trotskyism is a tool of the Capitalists!!

    http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515

    MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    I'm not sure how going from "Jeremy - landslide" to "er...dunno mate!" in a week fills anyone with confidence that they now know what they are doing!
    Has Kellner decided that the hole he's in is too big for his shovel, so he's calling in the JCB to help with the digging?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    It's interesting from that Cruddas article, that he finds there are three issues Labour need to address:

    1) Reducing immigration
    2) Regaining economic credibility
    3) Being tough on welfare

    The debate between New Labour and Old Labour has concentrated entirely on 2. But the eventual solution to Labour's problems has to address 1. and 3. Right now I don't see either side in the Labour debate being willing to do so.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,161

    Do we really think all those tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands? - who signed up specifically to vote for Jeremy are getting cold feet? Can't see it myself.

    It's hard to know wherein lies the bigger shit-fest for Labour - Jeremy winning, or Jeremy just losing.


    Considering about 99% of so of members, or anyone else for that matter didn't have a clue about who Corbyn was a month or so ago, I can safely assume his vote could be quite soft. He's not like a Rand Paul figure who has cultivated a messianic following over the years.

    I couldn't imagine a more difficult election to poll. Burnham and Cooper have no real following in the party, members were fed up with the choice of candidates, and then up steps this beardy unknown who shakes it all up a bit. And, to cap it all you have this unfathomable voting system that even the candidates don't appear to understand.

    If I was Kellner I would hedge as fast as a hibernating hedgehog.
  • MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    I'm not sure how going from "Jeremy - landslide" to "er...dunno mate!" in a week fills anyone with confidence that they now know what they are doing!
    YouGov = YawwwwwnGov :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,550
    edited August 2015

    FPT: What about Romania/Hungary/Slovakia?

    Stag do got out of hand?

    I got a theory re. Kazakhstan!

    He was thinking of the wrong Petropavlovsk! There is indeed a city by that name in present-day Kazakhstan (though better known as Petropavl).

    But there is also one in the Russian Far East! It was the latter wot was besieged by Anglo-French forces in 1854:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Petropavlovsk

  • JEO said:

    It's interesting from that Cruddas article, that he finds there are three issues Labour need to address:

    1) Reducing immigration
    2) Regaining economic credibility
    3) Being tough on welfare

    The debate between New Labour and Old Labour has concentrated entirely on 2. But the eventual solution to Labour's problems has to address 1. and 3. Right now I don't see either side in the Labour debate being willing to do so.

    2 is impossible without first resolving 3.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,176
    If only Tim was still with us:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33973394

    Do they sell Paprika Pringles behind the fish counter at Morrisons?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,064
    JEO said:

    It's interesting from that Cruddas article, that he finds there are three issues Labour need to address:

    1) Reducing immigration
    2) Regaining economic credibility
    3) Being tough on welfare

    The debate between New Labour and Old Labour has concentrated entirely on 2. But the eventual solution to Labour's problems has to address 1. and 3. Right now I don't see either side in the Labour debate being willing to do so.

    But Tories offer the answers for those three questions and its clear that at the moment the electorate are happy to go with centre right answers to those questions. Labour will just have to be patient and wait for an economic incident to damage Tory credibility. People like Cruddas and Kendall are fooling themselves if they think they can beat the Tories on these topics.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,161
    Pulps- I wouldn't liked to have been anywhere near OGH when that BBC election night forecast came out.

    To calm you down a bit, some of my Labour friends are voting Corbyn as second preference, so even if he fails to get over the hurdle at the first time, it is very likely that he'll do it later on.

    The Cooper/Burnham ugly spat is likely to push their respective supporters second choices to Corbyn out of loyalty.

    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    Sorry to repeat, but this was my reply to my good chum Pulps from the previous thread who is asking me if I've had a Dan Hodges conversion.


    I guess I have Pulps. The Corbyn factor has stimulated some kind of deep rooted post traumatic stress syndrome for me that has just hit me like a bolt of unwanted lightning. I suddenly remember the 1980's- the branch meetings, Trots talking utter shyte, arguing for endless hours over the wording of some resolution or other.

    The Trots are a pain in the bloody arse. And mostly as thick as pig shit- they don't listen to anything. They read the Communist Manifesto and got indoctrinated without questioning anything else. But worse they made any party gathering about as fun as spending three hours sticking needles in your eyes.

    And now- the Trots are back. I cannot believe it. Arghhhhh.........

    Let's hope others are having similar thoughts at the last moment.
    NO, NO AND NO.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    I'm not sure how going from "Jeremy - landslide" to "er...dunno mate!" in a week fills anyone with confidence that they now know what they are doing!
    Has Kellner decided that the hole he's in is too big for his shovel, so he's calling in the JCB to help with the digging?
    JCB? The Jeremy Corbyn Brigade?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Jeremy Corbyn Brotherhood?
    Disraeli said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    I'm not sure how going from "Jeremy - landslide" to "er...dunno mate!" in a week fills anyone with confidence that they now know what they are doing!
    Has Kellner decided that the hole he's in is too big for his shovel, so he's calling in the JCB to help with the digging?
    JCB? The Jeremy Corbyn Brigade?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    DanSmith said:

    JEO said:

    It's interesting from that Cruddas article, that he finds there are three issues Labour need to address:

    1) Reducing immigration
    2) Regaining economic credibility
    3) Being tough on welfare

    The debate between New Labour and Old Labour has concentrated entirely on 2. But the eventual solution to Labour's problems has to address 1. and 3. Right now I don't see either side in the Labour debate being willing to do so.

    But Tories offer the answers for those three questions and its clear that at the moment the electorate are happy to go with centre right answers to those questions. Labour will just have to be patient and wait for an economic incident to damage Tory credibility. People like Cruddas and Kendall are fooling themselves if they think they can beat the Tories on these topics.
    You don't need to beat the Tories on these topics. You just need to prove you can be trusted on these topics so voters listen to you on other ones. If Labour set out a plan to get immigration down to 1990s levels, the issue would be taken off the table.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,064
    JEO said:

    DanSmith said:

    JEO said:

    It's interesting from that Cruddas article, that he finds there are three issues Labour need to address:

    1) Reducing immigration
    2) Regaining economic credibility
    3) Being tough on welfare

    The debate between New Labour and Old Labour has concentrated entirely on 2. But the eventual solution to Labour's problems has to address 1. and 3. Right now I don't see either side in the Labour debate being willing to do so.

    But Tories offer the answers for those three questions and its clear that at the moment the electorate are happy to go with centre right answers to those questions. Labour will just have to be patient and wait for an economic incident to damage Tory credibility. People like Cruddas and Kendall are fooling themselves if they think they can beat the Tories on these topics.
    You don't need to beat the Tories on these topics. You just need to prove you can be trusted on these topics so voters listen to you on other ones. If Labour set out a plan to get immigration down to 1990s levels, the issue would be taken off the table.
    If the Tories are still scrambling around trying to work out how to get immigration down to 1990s levels I'm not sure how Labour are going to manage it. Or even create a realistic plan that will be taken seriously by anyone.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Plato said:

    Jeremy Corbyn Brotherhood?

    Disraeli said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    I'm not sure how going from "Jeremy - landslide" to "er...dunno mate!" in a week fills anyone with confidence that they now know what they are doing!
    Has Kellner decided that the hole he's in is too big for his shovel, so he's calling in the JCB to help with the digging?
    JCB? The Jeremy Corbyn Brigade?
    You are right. "Brotherhood" is better. It fits in with the image (1).

    (1) Has anyone notice the trend for some idiots to pronounce "image" as "immaaaj"? Like "homage" and "homaaaj" - Yuk.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,281
    Greetings comrades. Just to say, I have cast my votes:

    1. JC, 2. EC, 3. AB, 4. LK
    1. CF, 2. SC. 3. TW, 4. BB, 5. AE
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,401
    edited August 2015
    Dair said:

    OchEye said:
    The death of the middle (one can see it in the UK as well) is the big danger and can give an argument to both the right and the left.

    As Darlene said in the cold open if the latest episode of Mr Robot** "There's no middle any more. Just rich and poor."

    **One of the best series I've ever seen and the TV highlight of the year

    There is an economic measure of inequality called Gini where 0 shows max equality and 100 shows max inequality. Figures for the Uk show in 1991 it was 36 and in 2010 it was 38, so little changed in those 20 years.

    One of the most equal countries is Albania with 29 in 2012 and one of the least equal is Brazil with 53 in 2012.

    Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI

    Subjective impressions are more to do with relativity. If you are poor and everyone else is poor you don't feel so bad. If you are well off and there are many billionaires then you will feel the inequality.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,127

    If only Tim was still with us:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33973394

    Do they sell Paprika Pringles behind the fish counter at Morrisons?


    Will they rename the plane Easy Jet 1 ?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 5,281

    Greetings comrades. Just to say, I have cast my votes:

    1. JC, 2. EC, 3. AB, 4. LK
    1. CF, 2. SC. 3. TW, 4. BB, 5. AE

    E for Evette, obviously!
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TheWhiteRabbit

    'He knows something and is prepared to risk his job by leaking it?'

    He's just hedging his bets ,he can't afford to be wrong again after the GE mess.
  • MaxPB said:

    Sounds like Peter Kellner is hedging his bets. Sensible to do so - should YouGov get this wrong then there'll be a lot of awkward questions!

    Indeed. After massively miscalculating the GE and their daily poll being the worst offender wrt to herding and showing TCTC and basically no movement for too long, another error in the political arena could send YouGov and Kellner back to the drawing board for a long time. They need to get this right.
    Kellner was very defensive on radio (WATO?) today. Brought up the scot referendum and Europe and ....
    Of course he could also be in a deep pit of gloom over the antics of his beloved Labour party.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,894
    Good afternoon Comrades .... just getting used to that fraternal greeting in the coming Labour Corbyn-Land.

    Meanwhile .... I've just returned from a very pleasing luncheon- I do enjoy a decent pie and a fine ale :smile: .... and the company of one of my few Labour sources. Poor fellow is in such a pit of despair about the prospects of Labour under Comrade Corbyn it's difficult to underestimate how badly he believes events will run.

    I have to say I agree. No matter how bad some PB Tories think Corbyn will be, they are as nothing as to how my Labour source and I believe this fiasco will turn out.

    Tremendous fun for PB but better government is served by an able opposition and government in waiting. Sadly we shall have many years to wait.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097

    Greetings comrades. Just to say, I have cast my votes:

    1. JC, 2. EC, 3. AB, 4. LK
    1. CF, 2. SC. 3. TW, 4. BB, 5. AE

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Dair said:

    OchEye said:
    The death of the middle (one can see it in the UK as well) is the big danger and can give an argument to both the right and the left.

    As Darlene said in the cold open if the latest episode of Mr Robot** "There's no middle any more. Just rich and poor."

    **One of the best series I've ever seen and the TV highlight of the year

    There is an economic measure of inequality called Gini where 0 shows max equality and 100 shows max inequality. Figures for the Uk show in 1991 it was 36 and in 2010 it was 38, so little changed in those 20 years.

    One of the most equal countries is Albania with 29 in 2012 and one of the least equal is Brazil with 53 in 2012.

    Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI

    Subjective impressions are more to do with relativity. If you are poor and everyone else is poor you don't feel so bad. If you are well off and there are many billionaires then you will feel the inequality.
    As Churchill (?) said socialism is the equal sharing of misery, or similar, Albania having not recovered from Soviet influence.

  • Dair said:

    .....Several sources seem to indicate that Kezia dugdale got 5,217 votes to become leader of SLAB. As she got 72% of a vote which was 60% turnout, this means that the grand total of the electorate for SLAB leader was : - 12,076
    Now this includes those voters who paid their £3 and eligible Union affiliates. The UK wide numbers indicate that this is about half the total electorate. Perhaps it is likely that in Scotland that number is lower but it's hard to be sure.
    What we do know is that it must be below 12,000 and could be as low as 6,000,

    6,000 full members of SLAB is funny, thanks Dair.
  • rullkorullko Posts: 158

    If only Tim was still with us:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33973394

    Do they sell Paprika Pringles behind the fish counter at Morrisons?

    I'll have you know Cameron is a well-known regular at the West Cornwall Pringle Company.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,650


    There is an economic measure of inequality called Gini where 0 shows max equality and 100 shows max inequality. Figures for the Uk show in 1991 it was 36 and in 2010 it was 38, so little changed in those 20 years.

    It's probably gone down slightly over the last 5 years.

    INEQUALITY IS SPIRALLING
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    JackW said:

    Good afternoon Comrades .... just getting used to that fraternal greeting in the coming Labour Corbyn-Land.

    Meanwhile .... I've just returned from a very pleasing luncheon- I do enjoy a decent pie and a fine ale :smile: .... and the company of one of my few Labour sources. Poor fellow is in such a pit of despair about the prospects of Labour under Comrade Corbyn it's difficult to underestimate how badly he believes events will run.

    I have to say I agree. No matter how bad some PB Tories think Corbyn will be, they are as nothing as to how my Labour source and I believe this fiasco will turn out.

    Tremendous fun for PB but better government is served by an able opposition and government in waiting. Sadly we shall have many years to wait.

    Well hello young man: I'm surprised to see you back on here after your terrible underestimation of the Conservatives at the General Election.

    Do you (and/or your source) think there is a chance Labour could be supplanted as HM's Loyal Opposition?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    If only Tim was still with us:

    Don't you worry.

  • Dair said:

    .....Several sources seem to indicate that Kezia dugdale got 5,217 votes to become leader of SLAB. As she got 72% of a vote which was 60% turnout, this means that the grand total of the electorate for SLAB leader was : - 12,076
    Now this includes those voters who paid their £3 and eligible Union affiliates. The UK wide numbers indicate that this is about half the total electorate. Perhaps it is likely that in Scotland that number is lower but it's hard to be sure.
    What we do know is that it must be below 12,000 and could be as low as 6,000,

    6,000 full members of SLAB is funny, thanks Dair.
    "UPDATE: A second Labour figure just rang me to assure me my information – which was from a good source – is wrong. She would not give the actual figure and only said it was “higher”. I offered to take down the post and publish an accurate figure if she would give it, but this was declined."

    I have no horse in this race.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 487
    edited August 2015
    Having seen an upper class Tory Twit from central casting called Tristram who claimed to be Labour's education spokesman on Newsnight last night it is difficult to know what to make of the Labour party.

    But Jack, as most old Labourites are now in the HoL the correct term is surely My Lord Comrade or informally Honourable Comrade.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    john_zims said:

    @TheWhiteRabbit

    'He knows something and is prepared to risk his job by leaking it?'

    He's just hedging his bets ,he can't afford to be wrong again after the GE mess.

    Of course he can. People in prominent roles in public life never get held to account. Just look at Vicky Pryce, who is back on the BBC with an expert gig, despite being a convicted criminal.

  • There is an economic measure of inequality called Gini where 0 shows max equality and 100 shows max inequality. Figures for the Uk show in 1991 it was 36 and in 2010 it was 38, so little changed in those 20 years.

    It's probably gone down slightly over the last 5 years.

    INEQUALITY IS SPIRALLING
    In the short term the income of the top 1% has gone up, the income of the top 10% down.

    Difficult to full explanation for that.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Given that there's never been a Labour MP called *Tim*, I wonder how many Tory MPs have been called Tristram?
    Icarus said:

    Having seen an upper class Tory Twit from central casting called Tristram who claimed to be Labour's education spokesman on Newsnight last night it is difficult to know what to make of the Labour party.

    But Jack, as most old Labourites are now in the HoL the correct term is surely My Lord Comrade or informally Honourable Comrade.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,070
    Good afternoon, comrades.

    Chairman Corbyn's hammer will smash the banskster-capitalist conspiracy, even as his sickle reaps a rich harvest of socialist triumph!
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656


    There is an economic measure of inequality called Gini where 0 shows max equality and 100 shows max inequality. Figures for the Uk show in 1991 it was 36 and in 2010 it was 38, so little changed in those 20 years.

    And this was despite large numbers of people from Eastern Europe, South Asia and Africa joining the very bottom of the pile in terms of income, thus increasing inequality. For the native population, equality has probably increased.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,894

    JackW said:

    Good afternoon Comrades .... just getting used to that fraternal greeting in the coming Labour Corbyn-Land.

    Meanwhile .... I've just returned from a very pleasing luncheon- I do enjoy a decent pie and a fine ale :smile: .... and the company of one of my few Labour sources. Poor fellow is in such a pit of despair about the prospects of Labour under Comrade Corbyn it's difficult to underestimate how badly he believes events will run.

    I have to say I agree. No matter how bad some PB Tories think Corbyn will be, they are as nothing as to how my Labour source and I believe this fiasco will turn out.

    Tremendous fun for PB but better government is served by an able opposition and government in waiting. Sadly we shall have many years to wait.

    Well hello young man: I'm surprised to see you back on here after your terrible underestimation of the Conservatives at the General Election.

    Do you (and/or your source) think there is a chance Labour could be supplanted as HM's Loyal Opposition?
    Your sense of the absurd does you credit Sir. :smile:

    FPTP will ensure Labour remain as the Loyal Opposition but in such a diminished fashion as to allow the Conservatives a free run for the foreseeable future.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    Hopefully it'll lead to each other's supporters declining 2nd prefs ! So that El Corbo can storm the bastille.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Greetings comrades. Just to say, I have cast my votes:

    1. JC, 2. EC, 3. AB, 4. LK
    1. CF, 2. SC. 3. TW, 4. BB, 5. AE

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,579
    Icarus said:

    Having seen an upper class Tory Twit from central casting called Tristram who claimed to be Labour's education spokesman on Newsnight last night it is difficult to know what to make of the Labour party.

    But Jack, as most old Labourites are now in the HoL the correct term is surely My Lord Comrade or informally Honourable Comrade.

    Corbyn gains another few hundred vote everytime Tristram or Chuka are sent out to lecture the members on what they should do.
  • Just got an email from Redbridge Labour urging me to back Sadiq!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''FPTP will ensure Labour remain as the Loyal Opposition but in such a diminished fashion as to allow the Conservatives a free run for the foreseeable future.''

    I'm trying to imagine the likes of Chukka, Liz and Danczuk spouting Corbynite rubbish for two years while they wait for decent leader.

    It isn't easy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097

    Just got an email from Redbridge Labour urging me to back Sadiq!

    I do hope you'll follow their advice. Have you received your email link yet comrade btw ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,894
    Icarus said:

    Having seen an upper class Tory Twit from central casting called Tristram who claimed to be Labour's education spokesman on Newsnight last night it is difficult to know what to make of the Labour party.

    But Jack, as most old Labourites are now in the HoL the correct term is surely My Lord Comrade or informally Honourable Comrade.

    Noble Comrade is the correct form or Nobble Comrade for those Labour peers attempting to resist the blandishments of Comrade Corbyn.

    Corbyn as LotO will also become a member of the Privy Council - The Rt Hon Comrade Corbyn. :smile:

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I read that in September HMtQ will open a new railway in Scotland and will travel on it, in a steam train built in 1937 and called the "Union of South Africa".

    It might be just me, but there is something not quite right about this event that I just can't put my finger on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    What are they thinking? They should be chasing each others' supporters for second preferences now rather than screaming at each other, what happened to the positive and cordial campaign they were all talking about only a few weeks back?

    Betfair has reacted to this piece with another grand available to back JC at 1.39 or 1.38. Pile in, those who haven't already!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Corbyn gains another few hundred vote everytime Tristram or Chuka are sent out to lecture the members on what they should do. ''

    Quite. A situation that might make them very well reflect on what future they have in such a party.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just got an email from Redbridge Labour urging me to back Sadiq!

    I do hope you'll follow their advice. Have you received your email link yet comrade btw ?
    Um, while I'm working in the Midlands, my snail mail is currently in Ilford, will have to wait till Friday to open it. But I can wait three days :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,579
    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    Yvette has gone down in my opinion for this ridiculous "sexism" accusation. It is hardly unreasonable to say she would be politically associated with someone she's married to. Jeb Bush is getting ribbed right now for his brother's record, is that also sexism?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,894
    taffys said:

    ''FPTP will ensure Labour remain as the Loyal Opposition but in such a diminished fashion as to allow the Conservatives a free run for the foreseeable future.''

    I'm trying to imagine the likes of Chukka, Liz and Danczuk spouting Corbynite rubbish for two years while they wait for decent leader.

    It isn't easy.

    Not easy but the effort is worth the humungous chortle.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @JEO

    'Just look at Vicky Pryce, who is back on the BBC with an expert gig, despite being a convicted criminal.'

    What's Pryce doing on the BBC ?

  • I read that in September HMtQ will open a new railway in Scotland and will travel on it, in a steam train built in 1937 and called the "Union of South Africa".

    It might be just me, but there is something not quite right about this event that I just can't put my finger on.

    The Waverley line from Edinburgh to Tweedbank, Mr Llama. Aka. the Borders Railway

    http://www.bordersrailway.co.uk/
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    Danny565 said:

    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    Yvette has gone down in my opinion for this ridiculous "sexism" accusation. It is hardly unreasonable to say she would be politically associated with someone she's married to. Jeb Bush is getting ribbed right now for his brother's record, is that also sexism?
    Jeb's problem is Bush whereas Yvette's is Balls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097

    Pulpstar said:

    Just got an email from Redbridge Labour urging me to back Sadiq!

    I do hope you'll follow their advice. Have you received your email link yet comrade btw ?
    Um, while I'm working in the Midlands, my snail mail is currently in Ilford, will have to wait till Friday to open it. But I can wait three days :)
    You won't be getting it in the snail mail, Dr Prassanan -

    http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/havent-received-your-ballot-yet

    For Registered Supporters (supporters who have paid £3 to register themselves):

    You will receive an email containing a link and two-part security details to vote online. You will only be able to vote online.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    taffys said:

    I'm trying to imagine the likes of Chukka, Liz and Danczuk spouting Corbynite rubbish for two years while they wait for decent leader.

    Surely there will be either a breakaway SDP2 or defections whatever the result, there's just too much bad blood around? All the other parties will be desperate for a conference-season scalp, that much is certain.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Superb.

    ttps://twitter.com/jakegoretzki/status/632587261738131456

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just got an email from Redbridge Labour urging me to back Sadiq!

    I do hope you'll follow their advice. Have you received your email link yet comrade btw ?
    Um, while I'm working in the Midlands, my snail mail is currently in Ilford, will have to wait till Friday to open it. But I can wait three days :)
    You won't be getting it in the snail mail, Dr Prasannan -

    http://www.labour.org.uk/blog/entry/havent-received-your-ballot-yet

    For Registered Supporters (supporters who have paid £3 to register themselves):

    You will receive an email containing a link and two-part security details to vote online. You will only be able to vote online.
    Oh in that case - no I haven't received one! How about you, Comrade Pulpstar?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 9,040
    Danny565 said:

    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    Yvette has gone down in my opinion for this ridiculous "sexism" accusation. It is hardly unreasonable to say she would be politically associated with someone she's married to. Jeb Bush is getting ribbed right now for his brother's record, is that also sexism?
    I can see why she has been bland for years.

    She is shite at confrontational politics.

    Lost a potential 2nd pref from me about a week ago.

    Jezza only for me if my ballots ever arrive
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,974
    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    All rather depressing IMO – two prospective candidates for the leadership of the opposition reduced to petty bickering and name calling. – We knew the ABCs were a weak bunch, but really, was this the best Labour had to offer?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,176

    I read that in September HMtQ will open a new railway in Scotland and will travel on it, in a steam train built in 1937 and called the "Union of South Africa".

    It might be just me, but there is something not quite right about this event that I just can't put my finger on.

    Oh, an A4. Well, at least it's prototypical as they used to work the route. Although as they're an express passenger train, and the new line is just a single-track branch, I'd much prefer a grimy Class 5. :)

    The Scottish government deserves some credit for the reopening of the line. Although I hope it;s been built to a better standard than the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine link, which is having to be rebuilt just a few years after it was reopened ...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 610
    re: UK gini coefficient, the ONS has a table going from 1977-2014. The highest (ie most unequal on this measure) points were 1990 at 36.8, and 2001/2002 at 36.2. We're at 32 now, the lowest since the mid 80s.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/household-income/the-effects-of-taxes-and-benefits-on-household-income/2013-2014/sb-chd-figure-5.xls
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm honestly astonished at how quickly this whole election has deteriorated into a playground spat.

    It started to get out of hand about two weeks ago, and currently nose-diving. And we've three weeks to go. I've no idea what could possibly happen next, it's all beyond absurd - and these people are grown-ups FFS.
    Danny565 said:

    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    Yvette has gone down in my opinion for this ridiculous "sexism" accusation. It is hardly unreasonable to say she would be politically associated with someone she's married to. Jeb Bush is getting ribbed right now for his brother's record, is that also sexism?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    john_zims said:

    @JEO

    'Just look at Vicky Pryce, who is back on the BBC with an expert gig, despite being a convicted criminal.'

    What's Pryce doing on the BBC ?

    She was on Radio 4 last week. Seems to be their favourite 'Go to Greek' for whatever reason.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,176

    Plato said:

    The spat between Cooper and Burnham today is hilarious. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4530629.ece

    All rather depressing IMO – two prospective candidates for the leadership of the opposition reduced to petty bickering and name calling. – We knew the ABCs were a weak bunch, but really, was this the best Labour had to offer?
    It's all that was left after Brown and his cronies (ably led by Watson) had done their work.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,579



    Jezza only for me if my ballots ever arrive

    Mine arrived this morning. Santa Gordon Brown dropped it off :D

    Will still be dithering about for a while and not voting for a few weeks, though.
  • I read that in September HMtQ will open a new railway in Scotland and will travel on it, in a steam train built in 1937 and called the "Union of South Africa".

    It might be just me, but there is something not quite right about this event that I just can't put my finger on.

    Oh, an A4. Well, at least it's prototypical as they used to work the route. Although as they're an express passenger train, and the new line is just a single-track branch, I'd much prefer a grimy Class 5. :)

    The Scottish government deserves some credit for the reopening of the line. Although I hope it;s been built to a better standard than the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine link, which is having to be rebuilt just a few years after it was reopened ...
    Forgot to mention - latest bit of British railway traversed for me: Ashford to Dover on Saturday. First visit to Dover in five years, and the first by train rather than car.
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