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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So much fun, let’s do it all again

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So much fun, let’s do it all again

2015 hasn’t been the happiest of years for Labour. They have had worse ones – 1931, perhaps – but it’s still been a bit of a shocker. Today’s leadership election result ought to close that chapter and open a new and more hopeful one.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • I do hope they pick Creasy for the deputy position.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    Absolutely pointless thread. You'll need another one pretty sharpish.
  • Who would get to choose the leadership rules for a second contest - whether next month or next year?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT:
    I cannot say that if Corbyn becomes Labour Leader at midday, that Labour will not get another Jewish vote, but it will be in the hundreds instead of the thousands that Labour usually gets.
    Still, he'll have a major part of the muslim vote sown up.
  • MD..I think it should be Watson..then Khan then Corbyn..perfect trio..Then we can all sit back and watch..
  • LOLbour Party.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,068
    There is zero chance of the London race being re run.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,984
    Corbyn planning to have rotating loyalists at PMQs instead of coin it himself says the Sun.

    Dave v Diane ? There isn't enough popcorn
  • Alex It is probably planned in the next hour or so.. PB is a tightly run ship,.
  • Lucy Powell not ruling herself out of the shadow cabinet. Corbyn-Powell; a dream ticket!
  • Do Scottish PBers think Corbyn will make inroads into the SNP vote?

    And if so how much?
  • Surely it is up to the Speaker to call people other than the LOTO at PMQs?
  • The candidates should have now been told the result.
  • Mr. Flightpath, my understanding was that both the PM and Leader of the Opposition could put in someone else, of their choosing, to bat, if they wish.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2015
    73.6% turnout for the labour election.
    sorry; 76.3%
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour people say Corbyn's weakness is lack of charisma or the right wing media but for me it's the policies.

    Wait until the voters hear about getting out of nato, nuclear disarmament, and most of all, yet more mass immigration.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    FPT

    Mr. Tudor, saw a few minutes of the interview on Youtube, then stopped watching. Constant interruptions and condescending attitude put me off.

    Paxman was overrated. Newsnight has a bad history of presenters trying to make themselves look good by tripping up ministers and claiming scalps. Oddly, the best presenter I saw was probably Nick Robinson, who did it for a brief stint whilst others were away, and acted more as a chairman rather than seeing himself as a pugilist in a verbal bout.

    Edited extra bit: was the Obama comparison to do with having a few months in the job? :p

    The confrontational style of long form interview asking difficult questions is really difficult to do. It requires meticulous research and needs to let the interviewee say enough to dig the hole.

    The best at this that immediately springs to mind is Stephen Sackurs' HardTalk on BBC World - why does this not make the terrestrial channel I don't know. Surprisingly a dose of humour can also help drop the guard of the interviewee, see Jon Stewart or even Ali G for examples of that.
  • The candidates should have now been told the result.

    Which of them will leak first?
  • Less than an hour and well know. I have a work meeting at 11:45 but should hear it begore heading out
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    BBC News trying to explain AV, now interviewing John Curtice.
  • I expect Corbyn to win on the first ballot at between 50-65%
  • Mr. Taffys, not forgetting his friends.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,984
    Important to remember that JC hasn't been involved in this election - he is backed by an ambitious and ruthless team that have stage managed a cult image a la SNP.

  • TGOHF..That would be so comical .. and much fun to be had..right across the country..The LOTO is running scared of tackling Cameron...which is exactly what it would be......
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    1.02 for Corbyn on BF
  • Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Mr. Tudor, saw a few minutes of the interview on Youtube, then stopped watching. Constant interruptions and condescending attitude put me off.

    Paxman was overrated. Newsnight has a bad history of presenters trying to make themselves look good by tripping up ministers and claiming scalps. Oddly, the best presenter I saw was probably Nick Robinson, who did it for a brief stint whilst others were away, and acted more as a chairman rather than seeing himself as a pugilist in a verbal bout.

    Edited extra bit: was the Obama comparison to do with having a few months in the job? :p

    The confrontational style of long form interview asking difficult questions is really difficult to do. It requires meticulous research and needs to let the interviewee say enough to dig the hole.

    The best at this that immediately springs to mind is Stephen Sackurs' HardTalk on BBC World - why does this not make the terrestrial channel I don't know. Surprisingly a dose of humour can also help drop the guard of the interviewee, see Jon Stewart or even Ali G for examples of that.
    Going back a bit - Brian Walden was superb at the probing half-hour interview. He really got you to the core beliefs of the interviewee without ever being rude , aggressive or raising his voice.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,541
    edited September 2015

    Surely it is up to the Speaker to call people other than the LOTO at PMQs?

    Corbyn would need to absent himself and appoint various ANO to deputise.

    Then he would face accusations of being frit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,813
    edited September 2015
    If Labour do it again in a couple of years, does that mean "Registered Supporters" who really aren't supporters get to vote then if they just keep their heads down?

    And because it will presumably be run as tightly as a whalebone corset they may have some extra influence proportionally.

    I wonder if we will ever know how many incomers there were. 200+ Green candidates implies quite a lot of unidentified Greens.
  • Sandpit said:

    BBC News trying to explain AV, now interviewing John Curtice.


    AV made no difference whatsoever to the Mayor vote, in terms of the order of candidates selected.

  • The candidates should have now been told the result.

    Which of them will leak first?
    In the bag?
    BBC political editor tweets...

    Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak
    Corbyn's team and supporters v confident this morning - strong sense it's in the bag
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,864
    edited September 2015

    Senior Labour figures now in no doubt Corbyn has won -- their only uncertainty is whether or not he's won over 50% of first preferences ...

    — Andrew Neil (@afneil) September 12, 2015
  • What a lovely, lovely day..
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,068


    Sandpit said:

    BBC News trying to explain AV, now interviewing John Curtice.


    AV made no difference whatsoever to the Mayor vote, in terms of the order of candidates selected.

    The effects of AV are always overrated.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,813
    Will the result this morning move any markets, or is it all priced in now?
  • At what time will the mass resignations take place..
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    Clive Lewis rules himself out of Shadow Cabinet.

    So he can't even count on his supporters... ;)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 5,780
    edited September 2015
    Bloke on Sky saying Twitter a very very poor way of judging public mood...

    In other news, the Pope is still Catholic
  • TGOHF said:

    Corbyn planning to have rotating loyalists at PMQs instead of coin it himself says the Sun.

    Dave v Diane ? There isn't enough popcorn

    Dave's response should be "which IRA condoning loony left wing nutbag am
    I facing this week?"
  • FPT

    Pleasing hearing about Tory aggression towards the BBC.

    If as expected Corbyn wins then I think the BBC is going to get a well earned kicking as the Tories become more confident. I can see them gradually cutting funding and privatising them after 2020 if they win again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    It will be very interesting to see if Corbyn as leader, if he wins, can indeed try to transform the role into something he finds more comfortable, than the current role which he certainly never expected to be in a position to fill, or whether he either cracks under the strain or finds talents in areas he never expected to and rises to the challenge. Certainly the fact that his biggest parliamentary cheerleader is Diane Abbot, who I find quite distasteful and, if she is bright, then for some reason makes a lot of statements that make her appear not very bright, probably makes it harder to see him succeeding that may be fair.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Is the a market on the number of potential defectors....???

    0....???? 10.....???? 50.....???
  • My moggy has just shown up to watch the telly wearing his 'Cats for Corbyn' collar...
  • Mr. Tudor, did he vote for Corbyn?
  • TGOHF said:

    Corbyn planning to have rotating loyalists at PMQs instead of coin it himself says the Sun.

    Dave v Diane ? There isn't enough popcorn

    Dave's response should be "which IRA condoning loony left wing nutbag am
    I facing this week?"
    The tories should shame week in, week out, any labour MP joining in this circus.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Bloke on Sky saying Twitter a very very poor way of judging public mood...

    If twitter was a guide labour would have a majority.
  • RodCrosby said:

    1.02 for Corbyn on BF

    Laid at 1.03
  • TGOHF said:

    Corbyn planning to have rotating loyalists at PMQs instead of coin it himself says the Sun.

    Dave v Diane ? There isn't enough popcorn

    Dave's response should be "which IRA condoning loony left wing nutbag am
    I facing this week?"
    Farcical.
  • Sandpit said:

    FPT

    Mr. Tudor, saw a few minutes of the interview on Youtube, then stopped watching. Constant interruptions and condescending attitude put me off.

    Paxman was overrated. Newsnight has a bad history of presenters trying to make themselves look good by tripping up ministers and claiming scalps. Oddly, the best presenter I saw was probably Nick Robinson, who did it for a brief stint whilst others were away, and acted more as a chairman rather than seeing himself as a pugilist in a verbal bout.

    Edited extra bit: was the Obama comparison to do with having a few months in the job? :p

    The confrontational style of long form interview asking difficult questions is really difficult to do. It requires meticulous research and needs to let the interviewee say enough to dig the hole.

    The best at this that immediately springs to mind is Stephen Sackurs' HardTalk on BBC World - why does this not make the terrestrial channel I don't know. Surprisingly a dose of humour can also help drop the guard of the interviewee, see Jon Stewart or even Ali G for examples of that.

    Andrew Neil is always well on top of his subject and has detailed facts to refute what the interviewee says.

    Unfortunately he is so good that Cameron will be interveiwed by him. Others get shreaded.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2015
    SB I rather fancy they will and which Labour MP would be prepared to take it..
  • RodCrosby said:

    1.02 for Corbyn on BF

    Laid at 1.03
    Ballsey, but i think your money is safe.
  • Mr. Tudor, did he vote for Corbyn?

    Yes, online I think, using a mouse!

    I'll get my donkey jacket....
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    DanSmith said:


    Sandpit said:

    BBC News trying to explain AV, now interviewing John Curtice.


    AV made no difference whatsoever to the Mayor vote, in terms of the order of candidates selected.

    The effects of AV are always overrated.
    Yes. It's also amusing to see people misunderstanding the best way to operate under AV. For example, fairly early in this contest it became apparent that the only potential way to beat Corbyn was for the other candidates to unite behind a single unity "stop Corbyn" candidate. But to suggest this was to get rubbished for "not understanding AV". Which is to take an extremely simplistic view of the operation of AV and the way that multiple candidates campaigning against each other will change the way the contest is conducted and the way people will vote on lower preferences.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253

    TGOHF said:

    Corbyn planning to have rotating loyalists at PMQs instead of coin it himself says the Sun.

    Dave v Diane ? There isn't enough popcorn

    Dave's response should be "which IRA condoning loony left wing nutbag am
    I facing this week?"
    The tories should shame week in, week out, any labour MP joining in this circus.
    They won't have it all their own way. No matter how poor most of the may be, Cameron will trip up or be tripped up on something even they can catch him on, there are simply too many vulnerabilities that could arise, so they can attempt to shame them week in, week out, but it might not always work out.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,974
    edited September 2015
    TudorRose said:

    Lucy Powell not ruling herself out of the shadow cabinet. Corbyn-Powell; a dream ticket!

    Clever move by Lucy Powell, probably the best Tory mole CCHQ have had in many a year :lol:
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The tories should shame week in, week out, any labour MP joining in this circus.'

    I imagine the tory backbenchers are composing the tame questions for PMQ as we speak...

    ''Mr Speaker does the Prime Minister share with me the extreme distaste of the opposition's links with ( insert terror group or despot).''

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    TGOHF..That would be so comical .. and much fun to be had..right across the country..The LOTO is running scared of tackling Cameron...which is exactly what it would be......

    Every single time the PM would remind everyone that the LotO is running away from holding the govt to account and highlighting what a shambles the Labour Party has become. I noted that the PM broke his silence yesterday, after the voting had closed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    Less than hour until the champagne corks come out!
  • I'm hoping Corbs gets way over 50% of the vote, then he can do exactly what he wants with the Labour Party and it really isn't going to be pretty.

    Perhaps we will be seeing the Gang of 200.
  • TudorRose said:

    Lucy Powell not ruling herself out of the shadow cabinet. Corbyn-Powell; a dream ticket!

    Clever move by Lucy Powell, probably the best Tory mole CCHQ have had in many a year :lol:
    Corbyn will have real talent there..

    Arf...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    taffys said:

    ''The tories should shame week in, week out, any labour MP joining in this circus.'

    I imagine the tory backbenchers are composing the tame questions for PMQ as we speak...

    ''Mr Speaker does the Prime Minister share with me the extreme distaste of the opposition's links with ( insert terror group or despot).''

    The media are going to have great fun joining in too. There will be an informal competition to see who gets the most outlandish. Can't wait for the Mail to run headlines like "Corbyn would give nukes to IRA"
  • TGOHF said:

    Corbyn planning to have rotating loyalists at PMQs instead of coin it himself says the Sun.

    Dave v Diane ? There isn't enough popcorn

    Dave's response should be "which IRA condoning loony left wing nutbag am
    I facing this week?"
    The tories should shame week in, week out, any labour MP joining in this circus.
    I wonder what the poster on here who used to accused Dave of missing PMQs* thinks of that idea

    *Before another meme starts, Dave has attended more PMQs than any other PMQs in absolute and percentage numbers since 1997.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,318

    Bloke on Sky saying Twitter a very very poor way of judging public mood...

    In other news, the Pope is still Catholic

    People sometimes restate the obvious, because to many is isnt obvious. People will swear blind that they couldnt understand that the Tories could ever win any election as they not only dont know anyone who would vote tory, they would find such a person so repulsive as worthy of being pushed in front of a bus.
  • Uniting....


    Paul Waugh ✔ @paulwaugh

    Labour MP, an avowed antiCorbynista, tells me:"This is just *one* election in *one* part of the Labour party." #ominous
  • Camerons best tactic will be to be respectful of Corbyn and not bully him.

    But behind the scenes his team will be feeding the media with the dirt.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 162
    No offers now Jeremy Corbyn, Cooper 33/1 Burnham 50/1
    Implies that there's only a slight chance that Corbyn has not won on the first count.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF..That would be so comical .. and much fun to be had..right across the country..The LOTO is running scared of tackling Cameron...which is exactly what it would be......

    Every single time the PM would remind everyone that the LotO is running away from holding the govt to account and highlighting what a shambles the Labour Party has become. I noted that the PM broke his silence yesterday, after the voting had closed.
    I think the smart Tory move is to not target Corbyn, but target the Labour party for electing him and Labour MPs forced to defend his policy positions. The more the problem is seen with the alternatives to Corbyn and the wider Labour party, the less the potential for a mid-term defenestration and pretending it never happened.

  • The next Labour PM is probably not even an MP at the moment.

  • Corbyn is going to giving Burnham the biggest beating anyone with the surname B has ever had since Scipio Africanus gave Hannibal Barca the beating of his life at Zama
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,895


    The next Labour PM is probably not even an MP at the moment.

    I think you mean foetus
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    taffys said:

    Is the a market on the number of potential defectors....???

    0....???? 10.....???? 50.....???

    Surely there's got to be a few. John Woodcock in Barrow could well go Tory, Simon Danzsuk maybe UKIP??
    Whips and managers from all parties must be hoping for a conference season scalp as UKIP got with that TPD last year.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,385
    One thing that hasn't received any attention is Corbyn's brother Piers who runs the wonderful website Weatheraction.com and has a long term forecasting record second to none with a complete rejection of the man made global warming agenda. I would expect attention to be drawn to this at some point. I do have common cause with Corbyn as a republican but that isn't going to be a fight that he'll take on sadly in my opinion. The global sovereign debt crisis will present opportunities to corbyn if he can see off the initial threats to his leadership. The next 4 or 5 years were already going to be fascinating enough already. This adds to it further!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    taffys said:


    I imagine the tory backbenchers are composing the tame questions for PMQ as we speak...

    I would think the Whips have already drafted those for the backbenchers. Can't rely on all of them to get even a softball question right, I'd guess.*

    *I'm just kidding, some backbenchers are probably very able and decent MPs, even when they are called upon to do some awkward PMQ bootlicking.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    On November 25, 1970, novelist Yukio Mishima, having failed to persuade a bewildered nation to convert to political extremism, committed ritual suicide in despair.

    Just saying.
  • [Restricted] Animal ‏@politic_animal

    Ed Miliband Resigned The Labour Leadership. What Happened Next Will Amaze You.
  • rcs1000 said:


    The next Labour PM is probably not even an MP at the moment.

    I think you mean foetus
    :smiley:
  • TGOHF said:

    Corbyn planning to have rotating loyalists at PMQs instead of coin it himself says the Sun.

    Dave v Diane ? There isn't enough popcorn

    The Speaker surely wouldn't allow that? If JC doesn't want to ask his questions he'd just move on to backbenchers.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    Bloke on sky - "senior political correspondent, Guido Fawkes blog". Self importance, much? :)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I would think the Whips have already drafted those for the backbenchers. Can't rely on all of them to get even a softball question right, I'd guess.*

    Very true Mr Kle. One of many sharp and salient comments from your good self recently IMHO.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,984
    I doubt there will be any defections nor splits - moderate Labour MPs will simply hide on the back benches or polish their CVs - moderat Labour will die with a whimper not a scream.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,920
    At 11:00 am precisely an act of remembrance will take place in memory of the Labour party.

    The Dear Leader wearing a white poppy pinned to the extreme left of his donkey jacket lapel will lay a wreath of deepest red roses at the base of the Ed Stone.

    Bands will play and veterans will march past and the masses will mourn.
  • alex. said:

    Bloke on sky - "senior political correspondent, Guido Fawkes blog". Self importance, much? :)

    Wait until you see the Guest Editor of a blog about betting on politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    taffys said:

    I would think the Whips have already drafted those for the backbenchers. Can't rely on all of them to get even a softball question right, I'd guess.*

    Very true Mr Kle. One of many sharp and salient comments from your good self recently IMHO.

    You are too kind.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    TGOHF said:

    I doubt there will be any defections nor splits - moderate Labour MPs will simply hide on the back benches or polish their CVs - moderat Labour will die with a whimper not a scream.

    Won't be much space to hide. Best just not turn up.
  • Fantastic PB Tory Herd propaganda piece, David H!
  • JackW said:

    At 11:00 am precisely an act of remembrance will take place in memory of the Labour party.

    The Dear Leader wearing a white poppy pinned to the extreme left of his donkey jacket lapel will lay a wreath of deepest red roses at the base of the Ed Stone.

    Bands will play and veterans will march past and the masses will mourn.

    @TSEofPB: Assuming they elect Corbyn, at midday I'll try and start a twitterstorm with the hashtag #PrayForLabour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 20,007

    Corbyn is going to giving Burnham the biggest beating anyone with the surname B has ever had since Scipio Africanus gave Hannibal Barca the beating of his life at Zama

    Labour's about to take the cleverest decision since Shah Muhammad thought "why don't I execute Genghis Khan's ambassadors?"
  • It's coming home!
    It's coming home!
    Labour's coming home!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    Camerons best tactic will be to be respectful of Corbyn and not bully him.

    But behind the scenes his team will be feeding the media with the dirt.

    Yes. Cameron will play the ball, focus his disdain on Labour's policies and the party who elected Corbyn, rather than on the man himself.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,068
    Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
    Senior aide to Liz Kendall says Corbyn has won in the first round with over 60% of the vote.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Corb 1.01 on BF

  • Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor

    Senior aide to Liz Kendall says Corbyn has won in the first round with over 60% of the vote.
  • DanSmith said:

    Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
    Senior aide to Liz Kendall says Corbyn has won in the first round with over 60% of the vote.

    Wow.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    BTW, as one idiotic decision among many. Why on earth do Labour have their election for Leader and Deputy at the same time?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,920
    rcs1000 said:


    The next Labour PM is probably not even an MP at the moment.

    I think you mean foetus
    Titter .... :smile:

  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,813
    If Corbs does go for rotating reps at PMQ, the who decides who the Govt would put up?

    Is it a "usual channels" process, or do we get Diddy Man Bingo?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    DanSmith said:

    Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
    Senior aide to Liz Kendall says Corbyn has won in the first round with over 60% of the vote.

    My word. Truly a mass suicide. Images from Jonestown spring to mind.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,984
    MattW said:

    If Corbs does go for rotating reps at PMQ, the who decides who the Govt would put up?

    Is it a "usual channels" process, or do we get Diddy Man Bingo?

    Cam should take them all on .
  • 30 mins to JICILL
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''moderat Labour will die with a whimper not a scream.''

    I'm not sure. I just read a tweet from James Forsyth that the defeated at the place are not making a scintilla of effort to hide their feelings about the result.

    When they emerge, the pictures are just going to be too, too delicious....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited September 2015
    DanSmith said:

    Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
    Senior aide to Liz Kendall says Corbyn has won in the first round with over 60% of the vote.

    Ha ha. Ha ha ha ha ha haaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"........... [NO CARRIER]
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