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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first polling verdict is in

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first polling verdict is in

That is the finding of a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday, launched immediately after the result of the Labour leadership contest was announced yesterday.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    Was there a standard VI question?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    Heh
  • Who cares? Corbyn = 59.5% :)
  • RobD said:

    Was there a standard VI question?

    Not been released yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292

    RobD said:

    Was there a standard VI question?

    Not been released yet.
    That juicy? Tories 50%? :D
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    But don't worry, lefties, it will all get better as Corbyn's coherent and intriguing opinions come under proper scrutiny, likewise his agreeable friends.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    So a net loss of 6% for Labour by electing Corbyn. Like they could afford to go backwards.

    Genius.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    not a bloody selfie stick!
  • glwglw Posts: 3,922
    SeanT said:

    But don't worry, lefties, it will all get better as Corbyn's coherent and intriguing opinions come under proper scrutiny, likewise his agreeable friends.

    Yes when some nutters blow-up a whole load of Brits the sight of Corbyn explaining the nuances of his relationships with the Jihadists will definitely go down well with the public.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277

    So a net loss of 6% for Labour by electing Corbyn. Like they could afford to go backwards.

    Genius.

    And that's BEFORE most voters even know his name. Cf my earlier anecdote (true) from a Highgate pub tonight. Half the drinkers had no idea who he is. Those that did had a vaguely mistrustful sense that he is a stupid "70s lefty".
  • Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
    Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    could be worse
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    kle4 said:

    could be worse

    We don't want him out early now, do we? :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    JWisemann said:

    Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
    Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?

    You are the definition of optimist if you think those DKs are going to break in a positive fashion for Corbyn.
  • I like the idea that that its a stunning showing when a good deal less than half of the population actively think the actual prime minister is more prime ministerial than someone who we have been unceasingly informed is the second coming of bin laden.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,057
    Before his interview with Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show last night, Donald Trump interviews his reflection in the mirror.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689
    Any suggestions for:

    Shadow For Sec?
    Shadow NI Sec?
    Shadow Scottish Sec? (Scottish MP is not a fan)
  • On the other hand Corbyn will probably (if I get the phrase right) be ahead in his own poll ratings compared with his party.
  • "Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    JWisemann said:

    Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
    Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?

    A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.
  • I love my Mum!

    She thinks the Shadow Cabinet flouncers should join the Tory Party - "that's where they belong!"

    :lol:
  • I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.
  • SeanT said:

    So a net loss of 6% for Labour by electing Corbyn. Like they could afford to go backwards.

    Genius.

    And that's BEFORE most voters even know his name. Cf my earlier anecdote (true) from a Highgate pub tonight. Half the drinkers had no idea who he is. Those that did had a vaguely mistrustful sense that he is a stupid "70s lefty".
    I think as well he is something of a Mr Angry.
  • Corbyn = 59.5%

    Your three Blairite Pseudo-Tories could only muster 40.5% between them!

    :lol: :lol: :lol:
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364
    Survation in poll shocker discovers what everyone already knew.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    @pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.

    Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?

    I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.

    There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.

    Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.

    On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.

    The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.



  • JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    Won't his being moderate disappoint his supporters? They want him to transform politics and move away from the current policies of Labour in many areas.
  • SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
    Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?

    A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.
    He hasn't even had his first full day as leader yet, for christs sake.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    They aren't disappointing, they represent a negative for Labour, who are already starting from a pretty low base.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,870
    Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292

    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.
    Did IOS mention something about Labour's ground game at some point?
  • glwglw Posts: 3,922

    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.
    Have either of those two reappeared?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    FFS A few days ago I predicted a Labour polling SURGE on the back of Corbyn's victory (as authentic, new, different). It might still happen. But tonight I wonder.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    JWisemann said:

    SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
    Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?

    A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.
    He hasn't even had his first full day as leader yet, for christs sake.

    Boost was probably the wrong word, people giving him the benefit of the doubt, no doubt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    JWisemann said:

    SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
    Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?

    A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.
    He hasn't even had his first full day as leader yet, for christs sake.

    And I'm already disappointed - I've not seen a single mob of peasants marching on Buckingham Palace and american air bases yet. Dull.
  • kle4 said:

    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    Won't his being moderate disappoint his supporters? They want him to transform politics and move away from the current policies of Labour in many areas.
    No, because they are just after unapologetic advocacy of moderate social democratic policies, by and large.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    AndyJS said:

    Can't wait for the London mayoral election. My prediction: Goldsmith 55%, Khan 45%.

    The locals will be good too!
  • FPT

    PMQs will be like 15 to 1 - Bercow asks Corbyn 'Question or Nominate?'

    Is 15 to 1 the odds of a Labour victory?

    Labour's been binging a lot of vintage gameshows recently.

    I'm sorry I haven't a clue.

    Pointless.

    The weakest link.

    Decimate.

    Shipwrecked.

    Shafted.

    They think it's all over.

    But the Knightmare continues.

    The Tories Played Their Cards Right, Struck It Lucky and scored a Bullseye when Corbyn finally got his Big Break, officially crowned the Best Of The Worst. Didn't He Do Well? But You Bet the euphoria will last Just A Minute: if he isn't Wanted by the British public, it'll be The People Versus Labour.

    The $64,000 Question is whether, with no Turnabout or Rebound, Jezza will reach for the Ejector Seat - or are his rivals playing The Waiting Game until the Opportunity Knocks to Go For Gold? We Need Answers. Can't see the support of Hamas and Argentina will be much use, Friends Like These don't go down well with the 8 out of 10 Brits who Love My Country, and Only Connect with the hard left. That's a Distraction from his plan of a Million Pound Drop, If He Ruled The World: something most economic Eggheads warn against. Yet Corbyn seems Oblivious. It's a Countdown to Total Wipeout, Labour are at Tipping Point and Every Second Counts.

    Not long ago, Liz was favourite in The Chase to be Top Of The Form, but The Wheel Of Fortune turned at The Moment Of Truth! Now the Singled Out Blairites have shown 100% that they are The Biggest Losers after Corbyn's Epic Win, how many will stick it out and be Argumental in Labour politics Win, Lose or Draw, will there be any Defectors, and how many others will head for the Exit List, exploit their Connections and Want To Be Millionaires instead? (Greed! But a Family Fortune sounds more attractive than backbenching in The Bubble.) Oh how Labour miss their Golden Balls! Man Oh Man, Labour Had Talent, once.

    According to the polls, It's a Knockout! Labour apparently consign themselves to Room 101. Were there many blue-leaning Moles involved? It's Perfection for the Tories.

    Will the defeated candidates in this Dog Eat Dog contest stand Four Square behind their new leader? There'll be Scavengers over the mess when this is all over and Who Dares, Wins.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".
  • RobD said:

    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.
    Did IOS mention something about Labour's ground game at some point?
    Depending on my mood/events the morning thread talks about Labour's AWESOME ground game (no really it does)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Dan Hodges sums up one of Labours major problems though I suspect Corbyn and his followers won't care........

    "When the new trade union bill is passed a similar collapse in the party’s union funding will follow. The last private sector donors are already walking away. Leaving Labour a party without a credible prime minister, a credible cabinet, a credible policy programme or a credible funding stream. In other words, it has ceased to be a political party at all."
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    Many of us said explicitly before he won that the polling woudln't be too bad at first, but would get worse and worse with time. Also, positions like giving away northern Ireland and printing money to fund government are in no way reasonable or moderate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241
    Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,
  • glw said:

    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    That's what IOS and Chilon used to say about Ed Miliband.
    Have either of those two reappeared?
    I seem to recall that IOS was just a volunteer at head office, and had a regular dayjob, but Chilon (I suspected at the time) was either someone important or someone very well-connected.
  • SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,033

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    @pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.

    Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?

    I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.

    There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.

    Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.

    On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.

    The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.



    Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292
    Speaking of polls:
    IOS Posts: 1,450
    May 5
    all polls now looking at Ed being PM.

    WELL DONE CROSBY - should have stuck to the economy.
    Titter.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364
    edited September 2015

    Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,

    Is, was, always shall be, world without end AMEN./ Bryant will understand the reference.
  • Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,

    What has Reverend Underpants done now?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?
  • Moses_ said:

    Dan Hodges sums up one of Labours major problems though I suspect Corbyn and his followers won't care........

    "When the new trade union bill is passed a similar collapse in the party’s union funding will follow. The last private sector donors are already walking away. Leaving Labour a party without a credible prime minister, a credible cabinet, a credible policy programme or a credible funding stream. In other words, it has ceased to be a political party at all."

    This is a dead parrot?
  • The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.

    The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.

    The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    Generally poor reviews of Corbyn in Nuneaton on BBC news tonight, though 1 leftwinger and 1 2015 Kipper were more positive
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241

    Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,

    What has Reverend Underpants done now?
    Interview on BBC, he did a Palmer - he always supported Jezza and believes he will be PM.

    Eastasia has always been our ally.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364
    kle4 said:

    Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.

    Point out as you wish. He's a commie who wants to destroy the UK as we know it.
  • "Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party! For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

    "Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential! They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

    "A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

    To be read with a suitably Scottish burr. :-)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    William_H said:

    The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.

    The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.

    The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.

    I agree that most of this is bollocks. But the last is a killer. This is after 1 day. The media onslaught has barely begun.

    I picture a Daily Mail comment editor literally wanking with joy, tonight.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AnneJGP said:

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    @pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.

    Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?

    I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.

    There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.

    Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.

    On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.

    The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.



    Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?
    I have no easy answers, because there are none.
  • For any PBers too young to know but curious as to what the 1970s was really like after the Corbyn / Watson nostalgiafest may I suggest you watch the new BBC comedy 'Cradle to Grave'.

    And then add in strikes, power cuts and general crapness.

    What do you do if your nose goes on strike ?

    Picket / pick it.

    Coming in 2020 if Labour gets its way.
  • I see the PBTs are hedging their bets already in response to this disappointing nonsense polling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    SeanT said:

    JWisemann said:

    Given the very large number of unknowns and the pretty even-handed results, the idea that this is at all bad let alone worthy of the headline they clearly had already decided to run with is pretty funny.
    Surely even you diehards must admit this is hardly damning evidence?

    A new leader commonly gets a honeymoon. An initial polling boost.
    The first poll after IDS was elected Tory leader had the Tories on 29%, Labour 46%, the LDs 20%. I would not be too surprised to see a similar result for Corbyn as IDS got, with UKIP swapped for the LDs, already this Survation has voters a net 6% less likely to vote for Corbyn than for him
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
  • glwglw Posts: 3,922
    kle4 said:

    Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.

    It took a long time for Ed Miliband's uselessness to be recognised by the wider public, but PB Tories were right about him from the very start. I see no reason to think Corbyn will not follow a similar trajectory.
  • SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?
    No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.
  • This is the key polling finding

    A total of 24 per cent of voters say Corbyn’s victory means they will be less likely to vote Labour; 18 per cent are more likely. Among Labour supporters 30 per cent are more likely and 15 per cent less likely.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 4,060
    JWisemann said:

    I see the PBTs are hedging their bets already in response to this disappointing nonsense polling.

    Which is it? Disappointing or nonsense?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241

    SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?
    No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.
    They also colluded with the IRA at certain levels.
  • SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?
    No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.
    Pathetic comment.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364

    Chris Bryant proves he's a total dick,

    What has Reverend Underpants done now?
    Interview on BBC, he did a Palmer - he always supported Jezza and believes he will be PM.

    Eastasia has always been our ally.
    I hope Bryant has a rethink as Corby wants to be pals with ISIS. Not good if you are anyone who isn't a jihadist, but especially bad if you are someone like Bryant.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    JWisemann said:

    I see the PBTs are hedging their bets already in response to this disappointing nonsense polling.

    I'm not hedging my bets at all. What chance do you think Corbyn has of winning the 2020 election?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277
    The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.

    Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?

    It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,870
    After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364

    SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?
    No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.
    BOLLOCKS. They did no such thing.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 928
    edited September 2015
    How is less people than voted Tory in the last election saying they think Corbyn is unfit to be PM a big thing when we've been told he will simultaneously enforce mandatory feminism, state-sponsored gayness and sharia law and put armed forces funding into scientific research to resurrect the prophet Muhammad and Saddam Hussein.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    Did Jezza (or indeed any other politician of note) share a platform with the Loyalist killers and call them friends?
    No, but HMG colluded with them at certain levels.
    Quite possibly, but has any contemporary politician given the Loyalist paramilitaries the same platform and support that Jezza has given the IRA?

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,478

    I love my Mum!

    She thinks the Shadow Cabinet flouncers should join the Tory Party - "that's where they belong!"

    :lol:

    Labour unity
  • AnneJGP said:

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    @pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.

    Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?

    I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.

    There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.

    Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.

    On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.

    The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.



    Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?
    I have no easy answers, because there are none.
    He did not as you for easy answers.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241
    SeanT said:

    The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.

    Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?

    It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
    ?????

    she's a bit of a posho herself.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143

    SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,292

    SeanT said:

    The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.

    Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?

    It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
    ?????

    she's a bit of a posho herself.
    It's all relative!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    Once again I feel obliged to point out that even people who think Corbyn will be a disaster have said they thinkhe will lead in the polls at some point. Therefore, while they might be indulging in hubris, very early polls 'not being as bad they could be' does not prove them wrong or that they must be disappointed.

    It took a long time for Ed Miliband's uselessness to be recognised by the wider public, but PB Tories were right about him from the very start. I see no reason to think Corbyn will not follow a similar trajectory.
    That may be the case - I am interested to see if Corbyn in fact rises to the challenge - but my point was really to stop the claim, that will no doubt occur, when or if Corbyn gets a poll lead, that this shows that his detractors were wrong and never thought such a thing would occur. Many do think he will get a lead, but like Ed M it will not be a large enough lead (incidentally I thought Ed did get a large enough lead, and was wrong)
  • AndyJS said:

    After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

    Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,478
    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    Corbinite delusion
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,277

    SeanT said:

    The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.

    Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?

    It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
    ?????

    she's a bit of a posho herself.
    Sure. But she successfully evinced ordinariness.

    And of course Jezza grew up in a modest mansion and went to a private school.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241
    JWisemann said:

    AndyJS said:

    After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

    Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.
    So labourites won't be talking about Thatcher from this point on then ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    This is the key polling finding

    A total of 24 per cent of voters say Corbyn’s victory means they will be less likely to vote Labour; 18 per cent are more likely. Among Labour supporters 30 per cent are more likely and 15 per cent less likely.

    How many of the 33% of the electorate who did not vote in 2015 were asked in the poll ? If they were asked what weight was attached to them ?

    Many "Corbyn" Labour supporters do not vote currently ! Usual polling methodology will not necessarily apply.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,318
    edited September 2015
    AndyJS said:

    After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

    The rerating of labour support, as a consequence of getting it wrong in May will make any leads Corbyn have, look very paltry. But yes I expect Corbyn to have overall majority type leads for the bulk of this parliament. in November 2019 support will fall away and in 2020 Labour will get somewhere between 28% and 32% of the vote.

    I also expect a few local government successes. The Cons will be hoping to maybe squeeze a few gains in May, but following that we will see an attrition of councillors.

    The Government is going to get a lot of grief following the autumn spending review.
  • saddened said:

    SeanT said:

    Vicious from the BBC Ten. Snide, clever, brutal.

    Gerry Adams filmed: "he's a friend of Ireland".

    Loyalists killed lots of innocents too - they even outkilled the Provos in 1993 and 94.
    What's your point? That you've identified a group of terrorist scumbags Jez, doesn't count as friends?
    People on the Loyalist side killed people as well, wasn't just the IRA, my dear.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    The loss of Yvette Cooper is the most serious blow, by far. She should have been leader, and she could have won in 2020. Yes she was robotic but she found her voice by the end, and against the posho, macho Tories she would have prospered.

    Now she won't even be in the Shadow Cabinet?

    It's just a catastrophe for Labour. Difficult to find comparisons as there are none.
    ?????

    she's a bit of a posho herself.
    Sure. But she successfully evinced ordinariness.

    And of course Jezza grew up in a modest mansion and went to a private school.

    ordinariness - only by being so lamentably dull.
  • Were people in 1980 obsessing about elections in 1945? I don't know, I was 1.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,143
    JWisemann said:

    AndyJS said:

    After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

    Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.
    So why is Jez, trying to solve today's issues with solutions from thirty five years ago?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,689

    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    Corbinite delusion
    But Corbyn has energised the population and placed himself at the head of a national movement that is going to sweep away all before it.
  • saddened said:

    JWisemann said:

    AndyJS said:

    After Michael Foot was elected leader in 1980, Labour registered leads of between 9% and 24% within a few weeks.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

    Yes, we should use events from 35 years ago as a meaningful benchmark in today's completely identical world, because that wouldn't be insane, clearly.
    So why is Jez, trying to solve today's issues with solutions from thirty five years ago?
    Why are the Tories trying to solve today's issues with solutions from 135 years ago?
  • William_H said:

    The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.

    The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.

    The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.

    On topic: I agree very strongly with this comment. Polls at this stage are not only pretty meaningless, but these specific questions are particularly naff.

    What they do suffice to show, is that the "Corbynmania" - this energising flood of euphoria that so many grassroots lefties have reported a surging tide of - hasn't broken through into mainstream opinion. It is still reminiscent of the early inklings of the SNP or Green surges - but that just goes to show it might yet catch light (not the bookies' favourite at the moment) or could simply fizzle out without translating into parliamentary gains (even if gets voting numbers up, they may well not be well-distributed electorally*).

    * Corbynites suppose that he'll do well among working-class non-voters currently turned off of politics entirely, but history suggests this is a very hard group to break out into. Moreover turnout is generally lower in Labour safe seats, so these people are likely to be concentrated where they are least useful. There have also been glowing reports of Corbynmania across southern shires: but a word of caution here. There are still a core of Labour-voters (or sympathisers who, for local reasons, vote Lib Dem) in most places across the country, particularly wherever there are schools and colleges, large NHS facilities, civil service outposts and so on. Their enthusiasm may not be transmissible to the rest of the town they live, let alone the rural areas appended to the constituency. If Corbynism delivers a pro-Labour swing that is fairly evenly distributed across the country, it won't gain that many seats-per-point-of-swing. More likely, some of the effects (appeal to Old Labour types) are likely to be concentrated in Labour areas anyway, reducing the efficiency further.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AnneJGP said:

    FPT:

    MrsB said:

    @pulpstat guess my money is safe for the foreseeable future, as Andy Burnham has not become the leader of the Labour party.

    Anybody else staggered at the concept that commentators are seriously discussing whether the leader of a major party will be able to find enough people from within his own party willing to serve in his shadow cabinet?

    I missed a lot of pb today through being on the refugees welcome march in London. Seems to me that pb is not representative of the country on this issue. There is more support for refugees in the population at large than there is on pb. Not claiming a majority, but certainly not a tiny minority.

    There are a fair number of people quietly helping. My Church has been supporting asylum seekers for years in a non judgemental way. I have had a number of interesting conversations with asylum seekers over the years as a result. My barber is a Kurd who arrived here as an asylum seeker too, and I have taken on a number of doctors via a national scheme to get them restarted in their careers.

    Tommorow it seems the Villa fans will be displaying a #refugeeswelcome banner at the match. I shall report back on its reception. Personally I do not want to see political banners of any sort being displayed at matches. I want to jeer at the Villa fans for their pisspoor team rather than their politics.

    On an individual basis the asylum seekers that I meet are pretty decent people with harrowing stories. They are a fairly self selected bunch though as I suspect that the more dubious ones do not come to meetings in a Christian Church, even a liberal one that does not expect anything from them. Jesus was given refuge in Egypt and we take our lead from that.

    The numbers need to be manageable though, and those that fail to establish their bonafides need to be deported more quickly. It is not a simple issue.



    Do you have any thoughts as to how the numbers can be kept manageable?
    I have no easy answers, because there are none.
    He did not as you for easy answers.
    Broadly I am supportive of the approach taken by the Barnabas fund, and I have made donations in 4 figures to the fund in recent years.

    https://barnabasfund.org/appeals
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    alex. said:

    JWisemann said:

    I wish the PB Tories could be honest and admit these are quite disappointing results for them, given the media storm and the fact that Corbyn hasn't even begun to show that he is actually completely reasonable and moderate as leader, which he will.

    Corbinite delusion
    But Corbyn has energised the population and placed himself at the head of a national movement that is going to sweep away all before it.
    JC is the the way the truth and the life.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    William_H said:

    The first and second questions are meaningless, it's just asking people to prognosticate about something they know little. And where the even the experts don't have a clue.

    The third is pretty meaningless. That form of question always picks up a bunch of committed partisans saying they're less likely to vote for someone they were never going to vote for (or vice verse). With high "No Difference", it suggests the british public don't care, yet.

    The last is bad - more for the low "yes" than the "no". But it's not terrible either. Corbyn needs to win people over.

    I agree that most of this is bollocks. But the last is a killer. This is after 1 day. The media onslaught has barely begun.

    I picture a Daily Mail comment editor literally wanking with joy, tonight.
    I would have thought the Daily Mail editors do it all the time !
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