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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could Alan Johnson lead Labour into the 2020 General Electi

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited September 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could Alan Johnson lead Labour into the 2020 General Election?

His failure to appoint any women to the so-called ‘top jobs’ whilst controversially choosing John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor got his leadership off to a rough start.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited September 2015
    First!

    Good article Keiran, and you're right to identify the value in Johnson being 25/1. The only history I can see repeating itself now is the party being too cautious - as they were with both Brown and Miliband. Everyone might want Corbyn out but the MPs and (s)electorate will have very different views on who the replacement leader should be.

    That a huge number of new members have been those Corbyn supporting types that Kinnock spent most of the 1980s getting rid of, and with JC talking about party reforms handing more power to the members at the expense of the MPs, the job of replacing him with someone half way electable to the general public becomes that much more difficult.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,920
    First Class

    Comrade Postie for the 2020 General Election.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    edited September 2015
    One man's "largely trivial events" is the electorates first opportunity to see what they think of the man. After four days, there are a hell of a lot of floating voters who are already going to need huge efforts to be persuaded to give Corbyn a second chance.

    Maybe, just maybe, it is dawning on him after 50 years of rigid views, that politics at the top table is not about 100%-0% choices, but a lot that are a very nuanced 51%-49%.
  • Even the women issue might be overblown, since half the Shadow Cabinet is female. On the bet, is Alan Johnson the Howard figure if Corbyn steps down (as I too expect he will) due to age?

    Angela Eagle, who will deputise at PMQs in her role as Shadow First Secretary of State, should be backed (currently 20/1) if, and only if, she can lay a glove on George Osborne (or even David Cameron). Otherwise, wait and see who shines. Things that make you go hmm: Stella Creasy is not in the Shadow Cabinet despite coming second in the Deputy race.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited September 2015

    One man's "largely trivial events" is the electorates first opportunity to see what they think of the man. After four days, there are a hell of a lot of floating voters who are already going to need huge efforts to be persuaded to give Corbyn a second chance.

    Maybe, just maybe, it is dawning on him after 50 years of rigid views, that politics at the top table is not about 100%-0% choices, but a lot that are a very nuanced 51%-49%.

    The thing about these trivial events is in the number of them, and the reinforcement of the perception they provide. It wouldn't have taken a fool to guess that Corbyn would have turned up a little scruffy and unaware of protocol at a military event - especially when standing next to Cameron, who does these things rather well indeed and has been attending them in an official capacity for a decade.

    He really needs a good Chief of Staff who knows this stuff and can drag him into looking like a statesman. As Ed discovered, the first impressions count for a lot and JC, like Ed, doesn't look the part and doesn't act like a potential PM - and really needs a trip to the tailor and the barber whether he likes it or not! Remember that most non-politics-geeks will have barely heard of him until this week, so this is very much the first impression forming now among the general population.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2015
    Sandpit said:

    First!

    Good article Keiran, and you're right to identify the value in Johnson being 25/1. The only history I can see repeating itself now is the party being too cautious - as they were with both Brown and Miliband. Everyone might want Corbyn out but the MPs and (s)electorate will have very different views on who the replacement leader should be.

    That a huge number of new members have been those Corbyn supporting types that Kinnock spent most of the 1980s getting rid of, and with JC talking about party reforms handing more power to the members at the expense of the MPs, the job of replacing him with someone half way electable to the general public becomes that much more difficult.

    30 years ago, but this speech could do with a re-run today more than ever.



    I do not think that Johnson is the answer. He is too old, has admitted his lack of competence when he stood down as SCOE and most importantly is too genial of guy. Restoring the Labour party to sanity requires someone who has a lot of fight in their belly and is willing to confront a new generation of Militants. Even at 25/1 i do not think him value.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095

    Even the women issue might be overblown, since half the Shadow Cabinet is female. On the bet, is Alan Johnson the Howard figure if Corbyn steps down (as I too expect he will) due to age?

    Angela Eagle, who will deputise at PMQs in her role as Shadow First Secretary of State, should be backed (currently 20/1) if, and only if, she can lay a glove on George Osborne (or even David Cameron). Otherwise, wait and see who shines. Things that make you go hmm: Stella Creasy is not in the Shadow Cabinet despite coming second in the Deputy race.

    Agree that Stella Creasy's absence is worthy of note. I suspect that the next long-term leader of the party (ie not a night watchman) will be either Creasy or, more likely, Keir Starmer. It will have to be somebody not associated in the voters' minds with any of Blair, Brown, Miliband or Corbyn.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097
    edited September 2015

    Even the women issue might be overblown, since half the Shadow Cabinet is female. On the bet, is Alan Johnson the Howard figure if Corbyn steps down (as I too expect he will) due to age?

    Angela Eagle, who will deputise at PMQs in her role as Shadow First Secretary of State, should be backed (currently 20/1) if, and only if, she can lay a glove on George Osborne (or even David Cameron). Otherwise, wait and see who shines. Things that make you go hmm: Stella Creasy is not in the Shadow Cabinet despite coming second in the Deputy race.

    Agree that Stella Creasy's absence is worthy of note. I suspect that the next long-term leader of the party (ie not a night watchman) will be either Creasy or, more likely, Keir Starmer. It will have to be somebody not associated in the voters' minds with any of Blair, Brown, Miliband or Corbyn.
    Kier Starmer is at 14/1 with a few bookies as next leader, which might have a little value - as you say he is a clean skin in terms of party politics, yet still very experienced at playing the political games from his role as DPP.

    If Corbyn hangs on for a couple of years there might not be time for a night watchman, they'll need another Kinnock willing to do the job for a decade. Starmer is 53 now, could plausibly do the job until 2025 and conceivably do it until 2030 if elected PM.

    Edit: In fact, looking at the next leader odds with Jarvis and Umunna the two favourites, there's value in almost anyone else given the changes in the party since the election. The hard left have already taken over, there's not much chance of a centrist getting the job next time around.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,920
    It's early but .... The next Labour PM may not even be a gleam in Jeremy Corbyn's and Diane Abbott's eyes ....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Is the market void if Corbynmania proves to be a terminal event and there is no next leader of the Labour party?

    Considering Corbyn has been favourite for the role he seems woefully unprepared. He has not thought through what he wants to do and how to go about doing it. The combination of his oppositionist views and his lack of leadership ability is going to destroy him and his party.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,365
    edited September 2015
    Btw, the main problem with this bet is that who leads Labour into the 2020 election won't be known for five years, until when shadsy will have your money tied up.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    JackW said:

    First Class

    Comrade Postie for the 2020 General Election.

    More like return to sender.... " not known at this address"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 16,097

    Btw, the main problem with this bet is that who leads Labour into the 2020 election means tying up your money for five years.

    I think Keiran's hypothesis is that there will be a new leader well before the next election, the bet is for next Labour leader rather than Labour leader in 2020.

    If JC lasts past Conference it will probably take a couple of years to get rid of him, given the mandate from the size of his victory.
  • Agree that JC will be long gone in 2020. Not sure Johnson will replace him. His time was last year. Sadly, he didn't want it.

    Corbyn is not Labour's IDS. That was Ed. Corbyn is uncharted territory. Far more extreme, unappealing and media unsavvy than anything any major party has ever put in front of voters before.

    I'd also argue there's another major difference: IDS won the Tory leadership on his anti-Europe, small state, socially conservative platform. Corbyn won on who he was not. He was not Burnham, Cooper or Kendall; he was not a representative of the machine; he was not New Labour; he was not part of or close to the last Labour government; he was not pro-Iraq; he was not a supporter of welfare cuts; and so on. The Labour selectorate saw Corbyn as something different and new after years of conformity, pained triangulation and two crushing electoral defeats. He was a conduit for their despair and someone they could project their hopes onto. That's why he won such a mandate.

    Now, of course, and quite rightly, the Tories and the media will hold the Labour party to account for the choice it made. Corbyn's record, back story and incompetence are all fair game. But from a practical point of view, and for betting purposes, it would be wise not to believe Corbyn is untouchable. The big problem with being the hope candidate is that you can only disappoint. Throw in endless unforced errors, desperately poor communication skills, dismall polls, electoral setbacks and bad decision-making, and that process of disillusion could (I'd argue will) accelerate.

    The next Labour leader is currently sitting on the backbenches and will, in all likelihood, be in place by the start of 2017. Dan Jarvis still looks a good bet to me. But I would not rule out Yvette Cooper either.
  • Sandpit said:

    One man's "largely trivial events" is the electorates first opportunity to see what they think of the man. After four days, there are a hell of a lot of floating voters who are already going to need huge efforts to be persuaded to give Corbyn a second chance.

    Maybe, just maybe, it is dawning on him after 50 years of rigid views, that politics at the top table is not about 100%-0% choices, but a lot that are a very nuanced 51%-49%.

    The thing about these trivial events is in the number of them, and the reinforcement of the perception they provide. It wouldn't have taken a fool to guess that Corbyn would have turned up a little scruffy and unaware of protocol at a military event - especially when standing next to Cameron, who does these things rather well indeed and has been attending them in an official capacity for a decade.

    He really needs a good Chief of Staff who knows this stuff and can drag him into looking like a statesman. As Ed discovered, the first impressions count for a lot and JC, like Ed, doesn't look the part and doesn't act like a potential PM - and really needs a trip to the tailor and the barber whether he likes it or not! Remember that most non-politics-geeks will have barely heard of him until this week, so this is very much the first impression forming now among the general population.
    ... and yet his appeal to the hundreds of thousands of people who got enthused and joined Labour to vote for him was that he wasn't like other politicians. It's going to be difficult for him to compromise on even the trivial things such as dress code let alone substantive issues without looking to his Labour electors as if he's selling out. Also he's been uncompromising for over 30 years, is he likely to change now?
  • To say the least, Johnson doesn't have a lot of fans in his own former union.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 12,920
    Moses_ said:

    JackW said:

    First Class

    Comrade Postie for the 2020 General Election.

    More like return to sender.... " not known at this address"
    Surely it's all about delivery and Comrade Postie putting his stamp on policy?

  • It's a good tip. I also like the Ladbrokes odds of 8/1 and 12/1 that Corbyn is replaced in 2018 or 2019 respectively.

    In reality, I think he'll limp through this year and next (just) because I don't think Labour will make their next move until the EU referendum outcome and that of the next Conservative leader is clear.

    2-3 years out from the next general election starts to sharpen the brain.
  • That Kinnock speech still brings a tear to my eyes. The best and singularly most effective I have ever heard.

    It's such a shame he joined the gravy train and did not learn all the lessons of 18 years in opposition.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    Alan Johnson's period as Shadow Chancellor was embarrassing. Very nice man, absolutely no idea about economics. I mean it was so bad that even Ed noticed. Can anyone seriously imagine him taking on Osborne in a leaders' debate? It would be cruel. Labour have a problem but he is not the solution.

    Labour need to move on at least 1 generation, arguably 2. A market where your money is tied up for nearly 5 years doesn't seem to me to be very attractive (I will have forgotten about any bet by then) but I would go for someone much, much younger like Dan Jarvis. If Corbyn collapses quickly it may be too soon for him but if he soldiers on (well he wouldn't do that but you know what I mean) Jarvis has time to create a media profile and a following. He should get on with it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490

    That Kinnock speech still brings a tear to my eyes. The best and singularly most effective I have ever heard.

    It's such a shame he joined the gravy train and did not learn all the lessons of 18 years in opposition.

    It was great. I don't believe he would have been a competent PM but he was the best public orator of my lifetime. The first in my family to go to University in a 1,000 generations speech was really good too.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,542
    edited September 2015
    Very good thought provoking article.

    I've argued here before that Corbyn will not lead Labour into the next election. In the latest Kuenssberg interview, he ducks the question again

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34272636 from 12:50.

    I think Alan Johnson is too old and too reluctant. I know we are looking at value rather than likelihood but I don't think even 25/1 is value. Incidentally you can lay him at 20/1 on Betfair so it is value if you get on quick at 25/1 and lay at 20/1.

    Tom Watson is the man. The public will see a lot of him. He is a safe pair of hands. I think he will work well with Corbyn who will willingly hand over to him when the time is right.
  • I like Johnson, a decent man who is fun to watch with Portillo, but his time has been and gone. I can't help thinking he got where he did in Labour BECAUSE he used to be a postman, they were desperate to be seen as the party of the working man. His time as a minister was indistinguished.

    What a mess that party is in if he's being tipped as leader 5 years hence.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Barnesian said:

    Very good thought provoking article.

    I've argued here before that Corbyn will not lead Labour into the next election. In the latest Kuenssberg interview, he ducks the question again

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34272636 from 12:50.

    I think Alan Johnson is too old and too reluctant. I know we are looking at value rather than likelihood but I don't think even 25/1 is value. Incidentally you can lay him at 20/1 on Betfair.

    Tom Watson is the man. The public will see a lot of him. He is a safe pair of hands. I think he will work well with Corbyn who will willingly hand over to him when the time is right.

    Tom Watson is a fat slug in a suit, but nonetheless in pole position. He would be the interim leader in any election, has the union backing and has an electoral mandate of his own. I do not think he would be any good, but from the betting perspective he is a good bet. Angela Eagle and Stella Creasy are also good bets, Labour is increasingly uncomfortable with more white male hegemony.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 34,492
    @JohnRentoul: “Now we have to destroy the Labour brand.” Cabinet minister to @matthewdancona http://t.co/lF2hsZws3I

    They don't to, the loony left is doing that for them.

    The Blairites should split and form New Labour (the only Labour brand to win elections this century)

    When I posed this before the issue raised was lack of funds
    One of Labour’s biggest donors has vowed to fund MPs who want to defect from the party as he branded Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership the “beginning of the end”.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    Barnesian said:

    Very good thought provoking article.

    I've argued here before that Corbyn will not lead Labour into the next election. In the latest Kuenssberg interview, he ducks the question again

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34272636 from 12:50.

    I think Alan Johnson is too old and too reluctant. I know we are looking at value rather than likelihood but I don't think even 25/1 is value. Incidentally you can lay him at 20/1 on Betfair.

    Tom Watson is the man. The public will see a lot of him. He is a safe pair of hands. I think he will work well with Corbyn who will willingly hand over to him when the time is right.

    I thought about Watson but I am not sure. I suspect he is going to come out badly from this nonce stuff and also be tainted by the chaos that is going to surround Corbyn.

    His lack of a Shadow role is curious but in fairness trying to keep a Corbyn led Labour party even vaguely coherent is going to be a full time job. I just wonder if it will allow the public to get to know him better and even more whether the public will like him when they do.

    It is strange he is not going to get to cover for Corbyn during any absences (and Labour need to start thinking up good reasons not to be there after yesterday). That would have been a chance to show whether he is up to the mark. His current role is going to give him very little opportunity to show the PLP what he can do.
  • Angela Eagle is not going to be Labour leader.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    An interesting article and its conclusion has been pushed by many on here. But let's look with a cold eye at his disadvantages:

    1) He's only slightly younger than Corbyn;

    2) He's been effectively retired from frontline politics for five years;

    3) He's had about four chances to take the Labour leadership and every time he has bottled it. Had he moved decisively against Brown in 2008/9, Labour would surely have won enough seats in 2010 to make their own coalition with the Liberal Democrats - and that's something I don't think Labour members will have forgotten or forgiven.

    4) He's blokeish, and people like him, and he's got a good back story. But he's also not the, if we're honest, the best Commons performer. Grayling had him in trouble at the despatch box a few times. I don't think he would shine against the Tories in opposition, and from the backbenches he won't get the chance.

    So although 14/1 is slightly longer perhaps than it should be, it's a bet I can't see winning and therefore I don't think it's value.

    Watson is as @Barnesian and @foxinsoxuk say a very strong contender - after all, he's the deputy leader. However, if Labour decide to depose Corbyn and rally round a greybeard who commands general respect and who is pretty senior in the parliamentary party, after we have finished pointing and laughing at the flying pigs I think the value bet is Hilary Benn. He doesn't have any major enemies, people like him, he's not a bad Commons performer and he was the de facto no. 2 in Labour until last week - you'd still put him in the top 5 after Corbyn, Macdonnell, Watson and theoretically Eagle. Therefore, he's likely to remain a key figure and somebody who could build up a head of steam quickly in case of need, as Howard did. And of course, he's a Benn, so the left might just rally to him for old times' sake (they can be quite sentimental in Labour - it's one of the pleasanter things about them).

    I don't say it's necessarily likely to happen, but I do think it's possible, and the 33/1 Ladbrokes are offering seem to me absurdly long. I'd say 10/1 would be more like it. So there would be value in that bet.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364
    The most telling thing about Corbyn's relationship with Abbott is not that they dated , its where they went on holiday. Tells you all you need to know.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good thought provoking article.

    I've argued here before that Corbyn will not lead Labour into the next election. In the latest Kuenssberg interview, he ducks the question again

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34272636 from 12:50.

    I think Alan Johnson is too old and too reluctant. I know we are looking at value rather than likelihood but I don't think even 25/1 is value. Incidentally you can lay him at 20/1 on Betfair.

    Tom Watson is the man. The public will see a lot of him. He is a safe pair of hands. I think he will work well with Corbyn who will willingly hand over to him when the time is right.

    I thought about Watson but I am not sure. I suspect he is going to come out badly from this nonce stuff and also be tainted by the chaos that is going to surround Corbyn.

    His lack of a Shadow role is curious but in fairness trying to keep a Corbyn led Labour party even vaguely coherent is going to be a full time job. I just wonder if it will allow the public to get to know him better and even more whether the public will like him when they do.

    It is strange he is not going to get to cover for Corbyn during any absences (and Labour need to start thinking up good reasons not to be there after yesterday). That would have been a chance to show whether he is up to the mark. His current role is going to give him very little opportunity to show the PLP what he can do.
    The nonce-finding is likely to backfire, and the lack of a shadow role shows there is no love lost twixt Watson and Corbyn. Those NEC meetings are going to be entertaining.

    The reception of the new Labour members may well be similar to this:

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good thought provoking article.

    I've argued here before that Corbyn will not lead Labour into the next election. In the latest Kuenssberg interview, he ducks the question again

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34272636 from 12:50.

    I think Alan Johnson is too old and too reluctant. I know we are looking at value rather than likelihood but I don't think even 25/1 is value. Incidentally you can lay him at 20/1 on Betfair.

    Tom Watson is the man. The public will see a lot of him. He is a safe pair of hands. I think he will work well with Corbyn who will willingly hand over to him when the time is right.

    I thought about Watson but I am not sure. I suspect he is going to come out badly from this nonce stuff and also be tainted by the chaos that is going to surround Corbyn.

    His lack of a Shadow role is curious but in fairness trying to keep a Corbyn led Labour party even vaguely coherent is going to be a full time job. I just wonder if it will allow the public to get to know him better and even more whether the public will like him when they do.

    It is strange he is not going to get to cover for Corbyn during any absences (and Labour need to start thinking up good reasons not to be there after yesterday). That would have been a chance to show whether he is up to the mark. His current role is going to give him very little opportunity to show the PLP what he can do.
    I think they know perfectly well he isn't, and therefore keeping him as far as possible from George Osborne is a very sensible decision by Corbyn. Whenever Watson gets stuck, which he usually does because coherence and succintness are not his long suits, he defaults to bullying mode, which shows how unpleasant, not to say stupid, he is. Who could forget, after Gove began to run rings round him on academisation, something even Gove privately admitted he had bungled, that Watson started shouting and screaming 'You're a miserable little pipsqueak of a man, Gove,' and had to be shouted down by the deputy Speaker?

    Imagine that multiplied tenfold all over the news at six - how would Labour continue with their 'public school bullies' line after that without being met by laughter?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    Well its 7.34 and I don't think there have been any mistakes today yet. Can things get better for Corbyn?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Very good thought provoking article.

    I've argued here before that Corbyn will not lead Labour into the next election. In the latest Kuenssberg interview, he ducks the question again

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34272636 from 12:50.

    I think Alan Johnson is too old and too reluctant. I know we are looking at value rather than likelihood but I don't think even 25/1 is value. Incidentally you can lay him at 20/1 on Betfair.

    Tom Watson is the man. The public will see a lot of him. He is a safe pair of hands. I think he will work well with Corbyn who will willingly hand over to him when the time is right.

    I thought about Watson but I am not sure. I suspect he is going to come out badly from this nonce stuff and also be tainted by the chaos that is going to surround Corbyn.

    His lack of a Shadow role is curious but in fairness trying to keep a Corbyn led Labour party even vaguely coherent is going to be a full time job. I just wonder if it will allow the public to get to know him better and even more whether the public will like him when they do.

    It is strange he is not going to get to cover for Corbyn during any absences (and Labour need to start thinking up good reasons not to be there after yesterday). That would have been a chance to show whether he is up to the mark. His current role is going to give him very little opportunity to show the PLP what he can do.
    I think they know perfectly well he isn't, and therefore keeping him as far as possible from George Osborne is a very sensible decision by Corbyn. Whenever Watson gets stuck, which he usually does because coherence and succintness are not his long suits, he defaults to bullying mode, which shows how unpleasant, not to say stupid, he is. Who could forget, after Gove began to run rings round him on academisation, something even Gove privately admitted he had bungled, that Watson started shouting and screaming 'You're a miserable little pipsqueak of a man, Gove,' and had to be shouted down by the deputy Speaker?

    Imagine that multiplied tenfold all over the news at six - how would Labour continue with their 'public school bullies' line after that without being met by laughter?
    Watson is indeed dreadful. One wonders how labour can survive Tom and Jerry.
  • Johnson is a good thought, but after that maybe one of the new people who have been given a chance by the gaps created by the refuseniks.

    I have never seen her but Heidi Alexander's profile looks interesting
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    DavidL said:

    Well its 7.34 and I don't think there have been any mistakes today yet. Can things get better for Corbyn?

    7.35. Jeremy Corbyn's alarm clock goes off....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,497
    DavidL said:

    Well its 7.34 and I don't think there have been any mistakes today yet. Can things get better for Corbyn?

    Matt Cartoon, April 1997, at Tory HQ:

    'I feel uneasy - nothing dreadful has happened for 20 minutes'.

    Labour must be feeling the same way!

    And with that, I am off to work. Have a good day everyone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490

    Johnson is a good thought, but after that maybe one of the new people who have been given a chance by the gaps created by the refuseniks.

    I have never seen her but Heidi Alexander's profile looks interesting

    That is the sort of thinking that led to Liz Kendall. Projecting hopes onto an unknown quantity rarely ends well (and I am conscious that I did that myself downthread in respect of Jarvis).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    Hilary Benn is probably more likely as he is Shadow Foreign Secretary as Michael Howard was Shadow Chancellor while Johnson is not in the Shadow Cabinet. Benn, helped by his surname, is also leftwing enough to appease the Corbyn left as Howard was rightwing enough to appease most of the IDS right. Johnson would have appeal through
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Well its 7.34 and I don't think there have been any mistakes today yet. Can things get better for Corbyn?

    Matt Cartoon, April 1997, at Tory HQ:

    'I feel uneasy - nothing dreadful has happened for 20 minutes'.

    Labour must be feeling the same way!

    And with that, I am off to work. Have a good day everyone.
    Talking of Matt: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    edited September 2015

    Agree that JC will be long gone in 2020. Not sure Johnson will replace him. His time was last year. Sadly, he didn't want it.

    Corbyn is not Labour's IDS. That was Ed. Corbyn is uncharted territory. Far more extreme, unappealing and media unsavvy than anything any major party has ever put in front of voters before.

    I'd also argue there's another major difference: IDS won the Tory leadership on his anti-Europe, small state, socially conservative platform. Corbyn won on who he was not. He was not Burnham, Cooper or Kendall; he was not a representative of the machine; he was not New Labour; he was not part of or close to the last Labour government; he was not pro-Iraq; he was not a supporter of welfare cuts; and so on. The Labour selectorate saw Corbyn as something different and new after years of conformity, pained triangulation and two crushing electoral defeats. He was a conduit for their despair and someone they could project their hopes onto. That's why he won such a mandate.

    Now, of course, and quite rightly, the Tories and the media will hold the Labour party to account for the choice it made. Corbyn's record, back story and incompetence are all fair game. But from a practical point of view, and for betting purposes, it would be wise not to believe Corbyn is untouchable. The big problem with being the hope candidate is that you can only disappoint. Throw in endless unforced errors, desperately poor communication skills, dismall polls, electoral setbacks and bad decision-making, and that process of disillusion could (I'd argue will) accelerate.

    The next Labour leader is currently sitting on the backbenches and will, in all likelihood, be in place by the start of 2017. Dan Jarvis still looks a good bet to me. But I would not rule out Yvette Cooper either.

    No Ed Miliband was Hague Corbyn is IDS Benn could be Howard Umunna Creasey or Jarvis could be Cameron. IDS won because he was not Clarke or Portillo. Cooper has zero chance after coming third it would be like the Tories electing Portillo to succeed IDS
  • The next Labour leader is currently sitting on the backbenches and will, in all likelihood, be in place by the start of 2017. Dan Jarvis still looks a good bet to me. But I would not rule out Yvette Cooper either.

    I think Yvette will regret posing with that "#RefugeesWelcome" sign - if she did become leader, UKIP would have that put on every poster in traditional Labour areas.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,673
    I would think the next leader is a function of how the rules for nomination and election are either changed or kept the same.
    Am I right that in the event of a challenge to the leader under current regulations the incumbent is eligible to stand without seeking any parliamentary nominations? If Corbyn had the aim of embedding a left bias to Labour it will be through manipulation the structures to keep the left dominant in the party. That aim is likely to impact the identity of the next Labour leader.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 18,490
    Surprisingly blunt intervention by Carney yesterday on Peoples QE and BoE independence: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11870215/Jeremy-Corbyns-policies-will-hurt-economy-Mark-Carney-suggests.html

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hits the nail on the head. This honeymoon period did not last long!
  • Good morning, everyone.

    FPT (2) ago: Mr. T, that's an issue. Accepting and facing reality rather than wallowing in self-pity (which not only means more therapy than should be needed but also decreases the chance of moving on in a positive way) is what it should be about. It's not dissimilar to some aspects of the charity industry. After all, if Britain's ornithological health is perfect, what's the point of the RSPB?

    Miss Cyclefree, indeed. My grandpa had Alzheimer's, and that was very difficult on my father.

    MrsB, the toga is only for grand gatherings of the House of Haddock.
  • philiph said:

    I would think the next leader is a function of how the rules for nomination and election are either changed or kept the same.
    Am I right that in the event of a challenge to the leader under current regulations the incumbent is eligible to stand without seeking any parliamentary nominations? If Corbyn had the aim of embedding a left bias to Labour it will be through manipulation the structures to keep the left dominant in the party. That aim is likely to impact the identity of the next Labour leader.

    yes yes yes
  • In going over the top in their attacks on Corbyn, his opponents will only serve to solidify his position – especially among Labour members that voted for him.

    No! Really?

    No, Johnson's time has come & gone - Labour are hardly going to depose one useless old duffer to replace him with another one.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 40,642
    edited September 2015
    On-topic: hmm. I have doubts about Johnson. He's very likeable and has the common touch, but he's not as sharp as a leader (or shadow chancellor...) should be.

    Undoubtedly an improvement on the incumbent, though, and his very lack of ambition would prove an advantage if he were advocated as a caretaker.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,870
    The London mayoral election will probably make the difference between Corbyn being gone sooner or later.
  • Hits the nail on the head. This honeymoon period did not last long!
    As someone observed in the Grauniad a few days ago, not only did he not get a Honeymoon, a brawl broke out among the guests at the wedding.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Hits the nail on the head. This honeymoon period did not last long!
    As someone observed in the Grauniad a few days ago, not only did he not get a Honeymoon, a brawl broke out among the guests at the wedding.....
    Isn't that a normal event? Or is it just the weddings I go to!
  • In going over the top in their attacks on Corbyn, his opponents will only serve to solidify his position – especially among Labour members that voted for him.

    No! Really?

    No, Johnson's time has come & gone - Labour are hardly going to depose one useless old duffer to replace him with another one.....

    This is the Stupid Party we are talking about. The only thing you can be 100% sure on with regards to the Labour leadership is that Angela Eagle will never be voted in.

  • he is on a zero-hours contract and knows it
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited September 2015
    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    edited September 2015
    philiph said:

    I would think the next leader is a function of how the rules for nomination and election are either changed or kept the same.
    Am I right that in the event of a challenge to the leader under current regulations the incumbent is eligible to stand without seeking any parliamentary nominations? If Corbyn had the aim of embedding a left bias to Labour it will be through manipulation the structures to keep the left dominant in the party. That aim is likely to impact the identity of the next Labour leader.

    Who has the power to change the rules around electing a new Labour leader? Conference? The Leader? The MPs? As they were such a disaster this time around, that must surely be the first step for the MPs to get changed. Or they will just risk running the process again and getting Jeremy Mark 2 (if they can ever get rid of Jeremy Mark 1).
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    If Labour gets desperate could they turn to the person who the electorate view as the most successful labour leader-Step forward Tony Bliar
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,364

    In going over the top in their attacks on Corbyn, his opponents will only serve to solidify his position – especially among Labour members that voted for him.

    No! Really?

    No, Johnson's time has come & gone - Labour are hardly going to depose one useless old duffer to replace him with another one.....

    This is the Stupid Party we are talking about. The only thing you can be 100% sure on with regards to the Labour leadership is that Angela Eagle will never be voted in.

    Here voice alone would reduce Labour % to <20. She is absolutely terrible on camera IMHO..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    Unlikely in my opinion.

    He's repeatedly said he's not up for it. He doesn't have the aura of competence that Howard had (isn't the GP contract his fault?) And he's too old
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    edited September 2015

    The next Labour leader is currently sitting on the backbenches and will, in all likelihood, be in place by the start of 2017. Dan Jarvis still looks a good bet to me. But I would not rule out Yvette

    Wrong on both counts. The next leader will have to be a senior Shadow Cabinet minister as Michael Howard was and someone who seen as of the left as Howard was seen as if the right. Hilary Benn fits both criteria so it will be him. Cooper has no chance having come third and she is not even in the Shadow Cabinet. Jarvis would wait until an election defeat

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    Many thanks to those providing the blow by blow of thebamerican debate on the last thread. It sounded terrible.
  • Well, those yougov numbers are shockingly poor for Corbyn. He really is as bad as we all predicted. Actually , he's worse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095

    In going over the top in their attacks on Corbyn, his opponents will only serve to solidify his position – especially among Labour members that voted for him.

    No! Really?

    No, Johnson's time has come & gone - Labour are hardly going to depose one useless old duffer to replace him with another one.....

    This is the Stupid Party we are talking about. The only thing you can be 100% sure on with regards to the Labour leadership is that Angela Eagle will never be voted in.

    Here voice alone would reduce Labour % to <20. She is absolutely terrible on camera IMHO.. </p>
    Angela Eagle's voice is an annoying, disturbing noise - like waking in the middle of the night, realising there is a mosquito inside your mosquito net....

    She is also extraordinarily rude, always talking across any other guests when she is interviewed.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,663
    Sandpit said:

    Even the women issue might be overblown, since half the Shadow Cabinet is female. On the bet, is Alan Johnson the Howard figure if Corbyn steps down (as I too expect he will) due to age?

    Angela Eagle, who will deputise at PMQs in her role as Shadow First Secretary of State, should be backed (currently 20/1) if, and only if, she can lay a glove on George Osborne (or even David Cameron). Otherwise, wait and see who shines. Things that make you go hmm: Stella Creasy is not in the Shadow Cabinet despite coming second in the Deputy race.

    Agree that Stella Creasy's absence is worthy of note. I suspect that the next long-term leader of the party (ie not a night watchman) will be either Creasy or, more likely, Keir Starmer. It will have to be somebody not associated in the voters' minds with any of Blair, Brown, Miliband or Corbyn.
    Kier Starmer is at 14/1 with a few bookies as next leader, which might have a little value - as you say he is a clean skin in terms of party politics, yet still very experienced at playing the political games from his role as DPP.

    If Corbyn hangs on for a couple of years there might not be time for a night watchman, they'll need another Kinnock willing to do the job for a decade. Starmer is 53 now, could plausibly do the job until 2025 and conceivably do it until 2030 if elected PM.

    Edit: In fact, looking at the next leader odds with Jarvis and Umunna the two favourites, there's value in almost anyone else given the changes in the party since the election. The hard left have already taken over, there's not much chance of a centrist getting the job next time around.
    I understand there are some skeletons relating to Starmers time at the DPP. Can't really talk in detail though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    Dair said:

    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.

    No it will be a Shadow Cabinet Minister. The alternatives to IDS were Howard or Davis and Howard got it the alternatives to Corbyn before 2020 would be Hilary Benn and a few of his supporters may push Burnham again but Hillary Benn would get it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,253
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: “Now we have to destroy the Labour brand.” Cabinet minister to @matthewdancona http://t.co/lF2hsZws3I

    They don't to, the loony left is doing that for them.

    The Blairites should split and form New Labour (the only Labour brand to win elections this century)

    When I posed this before the issue raised was lack of funds

    One of Labour’s biggest donors has vowed to fund MPs who want to defect from the party as he branded Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership the “beginning of the end”.


    The bigger problem is lack of public support for the new labour brand I'd have thought.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    In going over the top in their attacks on Corbyn, his opponents will only serve to solidify his position – especially among Labour members that voted for him.

    No! Really?

    No, Johnson's time has come & gone - Labour are hardly going to depose one useless old duffer to replace him with another one.....

    This is the Stupid Party we are talking about. The only thing you can be 100% sure on with regards to the Labour leadership is that Angela Eagle will never be voted in.

    Here voice alone would reduce Labour % to <20. She is absolutely terrible on camera IMHO.. </p>
    Angela Eagle's voice is an annoying, disturbing noise - like waking in the middle of the night, realising there is a mosquito inside your mosquito net....

    She is also extraordinarily rude, always talking across any other guests when she is interviewed.

    Almost as bad as the voice is the permanent scowl.

    If you compare her twin to her, Maria comes across much better despite identical voices and accents, purely because she isn't permanently scowling at the camera.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.

    No it will be a Shadow Cabinet Minister. The alternatives to IDS were Howard or Davis and Howard got it the alternatives to Corbyn before 2020 would be Hilary Benn and a few of his supporters may push Burnham again but Hillary Benn would get it
    The entire Shadow Cabinet will sink with Corbyn's ship.
  • "The bigger problem is lack of public support for the new labour brand I'd have thought."

    I'd imagine they'd have a pretty reasonable public support but virtually no activist base.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:


    Kier Starmer is at 14/1 with a few bookies as next leader, which might have a little value - as you say he is a clean skin in terms of party politics, yet still very experienced at playing the political games from his role as DPP.

    If Corbyn hangs on for a couple of years there might not be time for a night watchman, they'll need another Kinnock willing to do the job for a decade. Starmer is 53 now, could plausibly do the job until 2025 and conceivably do it until 2030 if elected PM.

    Edit: In fact, looking at the next leader odds with Jarvis and Umunna the two favourites, there's value in almost anyone else given the changes in the party since the election. The hard left have already taken over, there's not much chance of a centrist getting the job next time around.

    I understand there are some skeletons relating to Starmers time at the DPP. Can't really talk in detail though.
    Also a problem for Starmer is that there is very little chance of Corbyn holding on for the three or four years which would give his candidacy some viability.

    Corbyn is a broken man after 5 days in the job. He is never going to bee there in 2018.
  • OchEye said:
    Really?

    They seem pretty reasonable. Oh, and its not a positive article about Corbyn, if you have the attention to read past about the third paragraph. It's basically saying that, no matter how these various slips and mishaps go down, he's not going anywhere, for better and, much more likely, for worse.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    OchEye said:
    I wonder why Channel 4 haven't repeated A Very British Coup already. It would seem to be very apropos as Mr Ashcroft suggests.
  • HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.

    No it will be a Shadow Cabinet Minister. The alternatives to IDS were Howard or Davis and Howard got it the alternatives to Corbyn before 2020 would be Hilary Benn and a few of his supporters may push Burnham again but Hillary Benn would get it
    You mean my £2 on him at 949/1 a few days ago actually stands a chance?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Could all the tipsters who are saying with confidence who the next Labour Leader will be please remember that 5 months ago no one tipped Jezza as the next leader. He was a permanent member of the backbench awkward squad with no power base in the party (or so it seemed). The next leader is equally unlikely. Labour is not behaving rationally at the moment and anything could happen.

    Apart from the brief periods of Blairism in the nineties and Wilsonism in the sixties the Labour party has never been serious about looking like an alternative government. The Conservatives however have always lusted after power. We are entering a period of unhealthy blue hegemony. The lights are going out all over the Labour party, we will not see them re-lit in our (political) lifetimes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234

    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.

    No it will be a Shadow Cabinet Minister. The alternatives to IDS were Howard or Davis and Howard got it the alternatives to Corbyn before 2020 would be Hilary Benn and a few of his supporters may push Burnham again but Hillary Benn would get it
    You mean my £2 on him at 949/1 a few days ago actually stands a chance?
    As Labour leader yes
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,870
    edited September 2015
    Why can't Labour ever make the obvious choice when electing a leader? Instead of Brown it should have been Johnson, instead of Ed it should have been David, instead of Corbyn it should have been Cooper.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    OchEye said:
    I wonder why Channel 4 haven't repeated A Very British Coup already. It would seem to be very apropos as Mr Ashcroft suggests.
    It is on the Channel 4 player.

    GBH may be worth a re-run too, or Our Friends in the North.
  • 25/1 is excellent value for Johnson, for the reasons Keiran notes. However, I'd suggest Harriet Harman and Hilary Benn, both at 33/1, as perhaps even better.

    Although Harman has also stepped back from the front line, she's not retired quite so obviously as Johnson has. She is also - in case it's escaped anyone's attention - a woman.

    Benn, another in the 60+ age-group, enabling young cardinals to pick old popes, is still on the front bench and so could potentially straddle the party loyalists and Corbynistas with the pragmatists who want something approximating to competence. Handling Corbyn's foreign policy may be less of a problem than some think. Corbyn's general policy is not that unpopular; it's the associations he's made in pursuing it that leave him weak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234

    Could all the tipsters who are saying with confidence who the next Labour Leader will be please remember that 5 months ago no one tipped Jezza as the next leader. He was a permanent member of the backbench awkward squad with no power base in the party (or so it seemed). The next leader is equally unlikely. Labour is not behaving rationally at the moment and anything could happen.

    Apart from the brief periods of Blairism in the nineties and Wilsonism in the sixties the Labour party has never been serious about looking like an alternative government. The Conservatives however have always lusted after power. We are entering a period of unhealthy blue hegemony. The lights are going out all over the Labour party, we will not see them re-lit in our (political) lifetimes.

    I remember the IDS years when Blair reigned supreme Cameron now reigns supreme the pendulum turns
  • Much F1 news.

    Renault will cease to be an engine supplier for other teams. Still uncertain if they'll takeover Lotus:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34269127

    Rossi will race for Manor for 5 races, replacing Merhi:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34270705

    Thoughts from McNish on the Renault/Red Bull situation:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34252188
  • Is there a market for the number of days Corbyn will remain Labour leader? There ought to be one---the market-maker would certainly find he'd have two way trades.

    Maybe someone with more clout than me could persuade SPIN to offer one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 38,234
    Dair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.

    No it will be a Shadow Cabinet Minister. The alternatives to IDS were Howard or Davis and Howard got it the alternatives to Corbyn before 2020 would be Hilary Benn and a few of his supporters may push Burnham again but Hillary Benn would get it
    The entire Shadow Cabinet will sink with Corbyn's ship.
    They did not with IDS it would be Benn
  • I think the next leader will probably be a woman. A Corbynite woman just propelled onto the front bench, perhaps. But would she stand a Cat in hell's chance of becoming PM?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I loved the notion of "a motorcycle tour of East Germany" being a euphemism.

    I've been laughing quietly about that all morning.
    JackW said:

    It's early but .... The next Labour PM may not even be a gleam in Jeremy Corbyn's and Diane Abbott's eyes ....

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.

    No it will be a Shadow Cabinet Minister. The alternatives to IDS were Howard or Davis and Howard got it the alternatives to Corbyn before 2020 would be Hilary Benn and a few of his supporters may push Burnham again but Hillary Benn would get it
    You mean my £2 on him at 949/1 a few days ago actually stands a chance?
    As Labour leader yes
    Drat ...... he has to become the next Prime Minister for me to collect. Still I'm encouraged to discover that his price on Betfair has shrunk somewhat since making my investment last week and is currently 62/1. Not yet time to book my break at Sandy Lane but a dirty weekend in Skeggy appears to be in prospect.
  • Ruth Davidson once again showing signs of being a member of the human race.

    Ruth Davidson MSP ‏@RuthDavidsonMSP 10 mins10 minutes ago
    Does anyone really think DAs promotion is due to a 40 y.o. fling rather than the lifetime of friendship & shared activism since? Come on.
    7 retweets 18 favourites
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,241
    Let's face it Labour have just run out of human beings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095

    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:

    Alan Johnson has no chance, whatsoever, of becoming Labour leader. Firstly because he doesn't want it but far more importantly for the very pragmatic reason that the qualities that would make him a good Labour leader will also likely tell him that it is a long haul process to drag the party back and he is too old for the task.

    Labour are stuck in a very bad place right now. But that is not the fault of Labour members or Labour voters, it is entirely due to Labour MPs and especially the "toys out the pram" attitude of a string of the Labour Hard Right and Blairites who are doing anything they can to undermine him. This is what will cause them problems in the long term.

    Depending when exactly Corbyn goes, Labour need a candidate who would be at least reasonably unifying but also one that is not already utterly contaminated by what is currently happening in the party.

    Every single person who signed up for a Shadow post is now out of any future Labour election, anyone on the Left not in his cabinate is out, the Losing Three are out and all those who are currently briefing against him are out.

    That leaves very few people - all of whom are non-entities and/or not interested.

    This means that the only possible Labour leader will be whichever of the three options they have in the wings, waiting for a by-election to return and assuming they would. That means David Milliband, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls.

    Of course none of these options are entirely without baggage. Alexander has the record of being the man who lost 2015, Milliband has, well lots of baggage, and Mr Cooper isn't clean. But there are really no other choices for Labour.

    Whichever one of them gets the first by-election, that's their new leader.

    No it will be a Shadow Cabinet Minister. The alternatives to IDS were Howard or Davis and Howard got it the alternatives to Corbyn before 2020 would be Hilary Benn and a few of his supporters may push Burnham again but Hillary Benn would get it
    You mean my £2 on him at 949/1 a few days ago actually stands a chance?
    Please God, no. We'd NEVER hear the end of that....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 16,095
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Even the women issue might be overblown, since half the Shadow Cabinet is female. On the bet, is Alan Johnson the Howard figure if Corbyn steps down (as I too expect he will) due to age?

    Angela Eagle, who will deputise at PMQs in her role as Shadow First Secretary of State, should be backed (currently 20/1) if, and only if, she can lay a glove on George Osborne (or even David Cameron). Otherwise, wait and see who shines. Things that make you go hmm: Stella Creasy is not in the Shadow Cabinet despite coming second in the Deputy race.

    Agree that Stella Creasy's absence is worthy of note. I suspect that the next long-term leader of the party (ie not a night watchman) will be either Creasy or, more likely, Keir Starmer. It will have to be somebody not associated in the voters' minds with any of Blair, Brown, Miliband or Corbyn.
    Kier Starmer is at 14/1 with a few bookies as next leader, which might have a little value - as you say he is a clean skin in terms of party politics, yet still very experienced at playing the political games from his role as DPP.

    If Corbyn hangs on for a couple of years there might not be time for a night watchman, they'll need another Kinnock willing to do the job for a decade. Starmer is 53 now, could plausibly do the job until 2025 and conceivably do it until 2030 if elected PM.

    Edit: In fact, looking at the next leader odds with Jarvis and Umunna the two favourites, there's value in almost anyone else given the changes in the party since the election. The hard left have already taken over, there's not much chance of a centrist getting the job next time around.
    I understand there are some skeletons relating to Starmers time at the DPP. Can't really talk in detail though.
    I thought skeletons were de rigeur for Labour leaders these days?
  • Fancy Diane being a concorbyne

    or then again perhaps not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,870

    Dair said:

    OchEye said:
    I wonder why Channel 4 haven't repeated A Very British Coup already. It would seem to be very apropos as Mr Ashcroft suggests.
    It is on the Channel 4 player.

    GBH may be worth a re-run too, or Our Friends in the North.
    There was a re-run of GBH a few years ago on ITV3 I think.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited September 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Dair said:


    The entire Shadow Cabinet will sink with Corbyn's ship.

    They did not with IDS it would be Benn
    IDS was out his depth and jettisoned for failure.

    Corbyn is despised. That carries a baggage which will tarnish all who journey beside him.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,673
    Scenario one :

    PLP grow a pair and mount a challenge. The PLP show discipline and nominate one centre candidate. The PLP is smug and happy as there is only one candidate so no election by members affiliates supporters. On the last day of nominations Corbyn announces he will stand again. That will end well.

    Scenario 2

    Corbyn stays long enough to democratise the party so members, supporters and affiliates are empowered. PLP will no longer have the power to select candidates for leadership. That will end well.

    Scenario three.

    I don't think there is one.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The two phone calls to the KC helpline speaks volumes. So many desperately in need of help suddenly evaporated.
    DavidL said:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,870
    Labour's problems are exactly the same as those of social democratic parties all over Europe. The gap between the views of their traditional supporters and the metropolitan types who dominate the membership are rapidly becoming unbridgeable so that both groups cannot be satisfied at the same time.
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