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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in 1990 John Major would not have become PM

Twenty-five years ago today Lady Thatcher announced her decision to resign as Prime Minister, but if the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling then her successor would not have been John Major but Michael Heseltine. The above polling was not atypical of the time, Michael Heseltine was seen as the best person to revive the Tory party’s electoral fortunes.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 13,182
    Go Hezza. :smile:
  • Deuxieme!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,731
    British history is littered with politicians who “ought" to have been party leader, but didn’t!
  • This polling precedent might also give Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters some succour too.

    A very important observation! Thank goodness it's the Tory Party that "only ever panics in a crisis" and Labour are made of sterner stuff. Like all true revolutionaries the Corbynites are taking the long view and must first transform the Labour Party - rooting out the traitorous pig dogs (that's Tory to UKIP surely - ed.?) in the HoC who are only interested in winning elections securing salubrious sinecures to maintain their bourgeois life styles - keep the faith Corbynites! You know it makes sense, in theory (if not in practice - another bourgeois distraction)!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,709
    If you do something daft like ask the voters who should be the leader of XYZ Party, of course they're going to give a daft answer like Michael Heseltine. You should ask the supporters or members or voters of that party, not the voters in general. Heseltine would have been a disaster as PM, but anyway that's not even the point.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    edited November 2015
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    JohnLoony said:

    If you do something daft like ask the voters who should be the leader of XYZ Party, of course they're going to give a daft answer like Michael Heseltine.

    Or Jeremy Corbyn...

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,949
    edited November 2015
    Most people had never heard of Major.

    At best he was a useful puppet, filling the seats of real politicians who had resigned offering not much himself.

    As it turned out, that was his premiership.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Good article, Mr. Eagles. I've long said Boris has no chance because the PCP won't let him get into the final two.
  • The Labour membership has ensured that it does not matter who the Tories choose as their next leader. He/she will be PM for as long as the Tories wish it.
  • Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,949

    The Labour membership has ensured that it does not matter who the Tories choose as their next leader. He/she will be PM for as long as the Tories wish it.

    Who knows... Things change rapidly and profoundly these days. Most can't predict tomorrow, let alone 5 years hence.
  • Jonathan said:

    The Labour membership has ensured that it does not matter who the Tories choose as their next leader. He/she will be PM for as long as the Tories wish it.

    Who knows... Things change rapidly and profoundly these days. Most can't predict tomorrow, let alone 5 years hence.

    As long as JC leads Labour the Tories are guaranteed a majority.



  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,290
    "The Church of England has said it is "disappointed and bewildered" by the refusal of leading UK cinemas to show an advert featuring the Lord's Prayer."

    The cinema chain doesn't want to offend. I'm a little puzzled who might be offended by a recitation. Obviously no Christian, and Christ is a prophet in Islam. I'd guess atheists might be bored but who else?

    Isn't "offended" being used as a default setting now. "Inappropriate" is the word used when the speaker dislikes something, but "offended" is taking over.

    Are they worried that Muslims may want to advertise? If so, they're showing an amazing ignorance.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,073
    edited November 2015

    Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?

    FPTP means there is no chance a new party will succeed, at least for many years. MP action needs to be prompted by something concrete. That probably means meltdown across the board in next year's elections. But it will also require the non-hard left Labour Corbynistas - his useful idiots - finally realising what a catastrophe he and his mates are. Again, relentless humiliation in real elections will probably be required.

    As ever, the key to this will be the unions. Unlike most £3ers they have plenty to lose if the Tories stay in power. At some stage they will realise this and the pressure they can put JC and his mates under will be significant and very hard to dismiss.

  • The Labour membership has ensured that it does not matter who the Tories choose as their next leader. He/she will be PM for as long as the Tories wish it.

    That fact in itself will influence the Tory choice. Quite possibly in a direction that left-of-centre voters would not like.
  • El Pais is reporting that since the Catalan parliament voted in favour of pursuing independence close to 700 companies have moved their HQs out of Catalonia.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The unions are about to be hit over the head with the Trades Union Bill re Labour donations.

    Do we have a date when that's to be discussed?

    Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?

    FPTP means there is no chance a new party will succeed, at least for many years. MP action needs to be prompted by something concrete. That probably means meltdown across the board in next year's elections. But it will also require the non-hard left Labour Corbynistas - his useful idiots - finally realising what a catastrophe he and his mates are. Again, relentless humiliation in real elections will probably be required.

    As ever, the key to this will be the unions. Unlike most £3ers they have plenty to lose if the Tories stay in power. At some stage they will realise this and the pressure they can put JC and his mates under will be significant and very hard to dismiss.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    If @Tim_B is still around - Top Laugh on the FPT for PS4 joke. Brilliant.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433
    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
  • Jonathan said:

    The Labour membership has ensured that it does not matter who the Tories choose as their next leader. He/she will be PM for as long as the Tories wish it.

    Who knows... Things change rapidly and profoundly these days. Most can't predict tomorrow, let alone 5 years hence.

    As long as JC leads Labour the Tories are guaranteed a majority.



    And for at least ten years afterwards...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    Curious piece over on labour uncut. In tone it seems to be an attempt to rally labour centrists to keep on trying, but it's message appears to be a blunt 'there's nowhere else for you/us to go, so just put up with it'

    Not necessarily inaccurate, but franker than I expected.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/11/20/labour-centrists-should-not-abandon-ship-on-account-of-the-captain/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626

    Jonathan said:

    The Labour membership has ensured that it does not matter who the Tories choose as their next leader. He/she will be PM for as long as the Tories wish it.

    Who knows... Things change rapidly and profoundly these days. Most can't predict tomorrow, let alone 5 years hence.

    As long as JC leads Labour the Tories are guaranteed a majority.

    And for at least ten years afterwards...

    Not a chance.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :lol:
    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.

    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCuIkJi6
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Seems like a lot of new fighter planes been ordered to go on those new carriers..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    Guess the author...
    as Osborne knows, he is politically free to do what he wants. The leadership of the Labour party offers no substantive intellectual or political opposition, nor represents a potential governing coalition, nor, wedded to a bankrupt simplistic top-down statism, understands the complexities of these new times. Rarely has the principal opposition party been so irrelevant at a time of national need. All that is left is noises off – the odd newspaper editorial or column and civil society and business beginning to stir as they experience the impact. Weep for our country.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/22/tories-autumn-statement-george-osborne
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    Moses_ said:

    they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out

    Are they drawing straws to see who gets to be James Purnell?

    "We're right behind you..."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448
  • Mr. P, the Milibands have left quite the legacy. The elder has drastically reduced the odds on a man who must be ousted being ousted, the younger put in place the system that enabled (with the connivance of spectacularly stupid MPs) said man to be elected leader.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    How do you defeat a nihilistic death cult on-line? With 80's pop, of course...

    http://www.dazeddigital.com/artsandculture/article/28512/1/anonymous-are-apparently-rickrolling-isis
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    Meanwhile, Tory MPs are plotting a coup if next week Cameron reveals himself to be juncker in disguise this whole time.
  • Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    If that happens will the Labour Party membership quietly accept it?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!

    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    edited November 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Moses_ said:

    they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out

    Are they drawing straws to see who gets to be James Purnell?

    "We're right behind you..."
    A factor possibly behind those who never joined the shadow cabinet in the first place. They never wanted to take that risk of being the trigger man on a coup and failing.
  • kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    It's a good tool, you don't want to ignore it, but a lot of people act like winning on itis the same as winning the argument. It isn't, as we know from the trends seen on social media vs the result. I can't play the attached video in the tweet, but I'd hope McDonnell knows that, as the description makes it sound like 'we don't like the media, so let's listen to ourselves'
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    If that happens will the Labour Party membership quietly accept it?
    That's truly the issue here. The MP's may want it but the membership won't stand for it. The unions of course are sitting in the middle in full knowledge that MPs mean power but votes means MPs. If this did happen (not convinced) then I could see a dramatic split in the party into two perhaps 3 differing factions.

    The Slightly silly party, (centre left) the very silly party (left of centre left) and the extremely silly party (Corbynistas and associated nutters)

    Heart of stone and all that.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.

    Cameron's negotiations may never take place

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @theobertram
    Today is the day the leader resigns. Statement expected 9.30am @majorsrise
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    It's a good tool, you don't want to ignore it, but a lot of people act like winning on itis the same as winning the argument. It isn't, as we know from the trends seen on social media vs the result. I can't play the attached video in the tweet, but I'd hope McDonnell knows that, as the description makes it sound like 'we don't like the media, so let's listen to ourselves'
    That has been true since JC and I were young...

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,429
    edited November 2015
    FPT
    I was at the Yvonne Arnaud Theatre in Guildford last night watching a performance of Agatha Christie's "A Murder is Announced".. It seems to me that Labour need to do something akin to this (in political terms) given the polling I have just seen on the previous thread. I don't trust any poll, but this latest poll must make Labour MP's shudder.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Incidentally I hear labour, right on cue, are throwing the race card around in Oldham. They always end up with that, they should stop mucking around and start with it, they've nothing else to say.
  • Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    To quote Tracy Chapman, if not now, then when? If not today, then why make your promises?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    It's a good tool, you don't want to ignore it, but a lot of people act like winning on itis the same as winning the argument. It isn't, as we know from the trends seen on social media vs the result. I can't play the attached video in the tweet, but I'd hope McDonnell knows that, as the description makes it sound like 'we don't like the media, so let's listen to ourselves'
    That has been true since JC and I were young...

    True, but there seems more risk of self deception now, as its presumably easier to fool oneself into thinking the echo chamber is real. It's an online movement, not just fat bob the Stalinist's newsletter saying I'm great!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.
    Cameron's negotiations may never take place



    Quite possibly. Never had much faith in either them producing a satisfactory outcome anyway. The project must go on and all that. We are deluding ourselves if we ever considered it to be otherwise.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    Labour's problem with the new media is that they like talking to themselves. So convinced of their cause, they just talk about how correct they are, rather than trying to convince others that they are right.

    If my FB feed before the GE was anything to go by, then Miliband's Labour would have swept to a landslide greater than Blair's in 1997. And it was relentlessly negative: not promoting their own ideas, but trashing the hated, evil Conservatives.

    And it didn't work. Sadly, some are still posting the same stuff. They're intelligent, and they know it doesn't work, so it can only be virtue signalling. ("I'm Labour! I care! I'm good! Tories smell!")

    Some lefties think it's impossible for someone on the right to have friends on the left. It's no wonder they lose - they're in one big circle-jerk where other views are verboten.
  • Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    If that happens will the Labour Party membership quietly accept it?
    That's truly the issue here. The MP's may want it but the membership won't stand for it. The unions of course are sitting in the middle in full knowledge that MPs mean power but votes means MPs. If this did happen (not convinced) then I could see a dramatic split in the party into two perhaps 3 differing factions.

    The Slightly silly party, (centre left) the very silly party (left of centre left) and the extremely silly party (Corbynistas and associated nutters)

    Heart of stone and all that.
    It will take more than one by election loss (is that even likely?) for the MPs to be able to topple Corbyn. If they do could he not just stand again and be chosen again by the members - and I realise that MPs could refuse to renominate him, but would that not cause huge ructions, lawsuits etc?
    Much more likely that they leave it until more losses have occurred in the Council elections, they need Corbyn to be less popular with the membership before trying to topple him.
    The danger with that is that the MPs themselves could be deselected in the meantime. Tricky times to be a centrist Labour MP!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    Labour's problem with the new media is that they like talking to themselves. So convinced of their cause, they just talk about how correct they are, rather than trying to convince others that they are right.

    If my FB feed before the GE was anything to go by, then Miliband's Labour would have swept to a landslide greater than Blair's in 1997. And it was relentlessly negative: not promoting their own ideas, but trashing the hated, evil Conservatives.

    And it didn't work. Sadly, some are still posting the same stuff. They're intelligent, and they know it doesn't work, so it can only be virtue signalling. ("I'm Labour! I care! I'm good! Tories smell!")

    Some lefties think it's impossible for someone on the right to have friends on the left. It's no wonder they lose - they're in one big circle-jerk where other views are verboten.
    Isn't the stereotype that the left think the right are evil, the right think the left are idiots?

    We do see the latter on here on Tory heavy days, as I'm sure the labour fans would agree.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.
    Cameron's negotiations may never take place

    Quite possibly. Never had much faith in either them producing a satisfactory outcome anyway. The project must go on and all that. We are deluding ourselves if we ever considered it to be otherwise.

    Events are dictating that they won't have the time to sit down and discuss Cameron's "demands", by which time the EU will in effect have imploded. Cameron's last resort was to say we need to be in the EU for security reasons, that has been proven to be ridiculous beyond parody.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.

    Schengen has provision for suspension in times of emergency.

    Cameron is a very lucky politician. Never has there been a better time for reformation of the EU treaties to include border controls and settlemen rights. Even the delay to 2017 for a referendum caused by the Lords vote may play into his hands by giving a chance for such negotiations to happen.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    Labour's problem with the new media is that they like talking to themselves. So convinced of their cause, they just talk about how correct they are, rather than trying to convince others that they are right.

    If my FB feed before the GE was anything to go by, then Miliband's Labour would have swept to a landslide greater than Blair's in 1997. And it was relentlessly negative: not promoting their own ideas, but trashing the hated, evil Conservatives.

    And it didn't work. Sadly, some are still posting the same stuff. They're intelligent, and they know it doesn't work, so it can only be virtue signalling. ("I'm Labour! I care! I'm good! Tories smell!")

    Some lefties think it's impossible for someone on the right to have friends on the left. It's no wonder they lose - they're in one big circle-jerk where other views are verboten.
    Agree entirely, well put.

  • If Cameron's negotiations effectively don't occur because the Schengen area is too busy trying to stop itself being continually subject to attack, what does he do? There are three options:
    1) Recommend In anyway. Probably the likeliest, but makes the concept of negotiation a sham as he wants in without any changes.
    2) Recommend Out. The PCP would love him forever, but Cameron is pro-EU.
    3) Delay. Ostensibly sensible, except that the PCP might well decide it would be an optimal moment to instruct the Labour Party in how to defenestrate a displeasing leader.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    To quote Tracy Chapman, if not now, then when? If not today, then why make your promises?
    Human instinct. We always wish to put off that inevitable visit to the dentist to deal with the niggly tooth. Perhaps another aspirin will do the trick, mouthwash yeah that will stop the pain..... It does, briefly but then it's back and it's worse. Extraction or root canal the only long term answer.

    On reflection a Labour split is realistically now inevitable. The two sides could never now meet and agree.

    As Dair said last night. labours done ........"stick a pin in it"
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Corbyn wants a negotiated settlement with ISIS..He cant even manage that within his own party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    edited November 2015
    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    To quote Tracy Chapman, if not now, then when? If not today, then why make your promises?
    Human instinct. We always wish to put off that inevitable visit to the dentist to deal with the niggly tooth. Perhaps another aspirin will do the trick, mouthwash yeah that will stop the pain..... It does, briefly but then it's back and it's worse. Extraction or root canal the only long term answer.

    On reflection a Labour split is realistically now inevitable. The two sides could never now meet and agree.

    As Dair said last night. labours done ........"stick a pin in it"
    Is that a formal split? As the UNcut piece earlier argues, they have nowhere else to go, so even if they despise each other might well stick together, and wait for circumstance to force the Corbynite genie back in the bottle. I ridicule the idea of a homogenised anti-tory majority, but those who don't vote tory, at some point, want an alternative, and only Labour can offer it.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    He's back....

    Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has broken his silence over his successor Jeremy Corbyn – and suggested he was turning out to be an even bigger flop than he was.
    Mr Miliband had stayed tight-lipped about Mr Corbyn’s disastrous performance, but last week, he astonished a group of Labour MPs by telling them: ‘I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.’
    Now Mr Corbyn’s frontbench critics are plotting a coup if Labour loses the Oldham West by-election in ten days’ time.
    If their 14,738 majority is overturned by Ukip, they plan to table a no-confidence vote among Labour MPs and mount a mass resignation of Shadow Ministers to force the leader out, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn tipped as the favourite interim leader.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3328876/Ed-Miliband-breaks-silence-Jeremy-Corbyn-telling-MPs-bet-didn-t-think-things-actually-worse.html#ixzz3sCtO5tQx

    If that happens will the Labour Party membership quietly accept it?
    That's truly the issue here. The MP's may want it but the membership won't stand for it. The unions of course are sitting in the middle in full knowledge that MPs mean power but votes means MPs. If this did happen (not convinced) then I could see a dramatic split in the party into two perhaps 3 differing factions.

    The Slightly silly party, (centre left) the very silly party (left of centre left) and the extremely silly party (Corbynistas and associated nutters)

    Heart of stone and all that.
    It will take more than one by election loss (is that even likely?) for the MPs to be able to topple Corbyn. If they do could he not just stand again and be chosen again by the members - and I realise that MPs could refuse to renominate him, but would that not cause huge ructions, lawsuits etc?
    Much more likely that they leave it until more losses have occurred in the Council elections, they need Corbyn to be less popular with the membership before trying to topple him.
    The danger with that is that the MPs themselves could be deselected in the meantime. Tricky times to be a centrist Labour MP!
    Could not agree more. "Into the valley rode the 231" and all that ....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    edited November 2015
    I'm disappointed in you all. I give you a thread that mentions

    "With the quasi-AV voting system the Tory party currently uses to select their leader, you can see a Stop-X candidate doing very well in the forthcoming Tory leadership contest."

    And no one has discussed that part of the thread.
  • Mr. kle4, except Corbyn's changing the way policy and positions are determined within Labour. The rules are shifting power away from MPs into the hands of a very leftwing membership. The PLP can either strum its lute and moan wistfully as power ebbs away, or exercise its power before it's all gone.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.
    Schengen has provision for suspension in times of emergency.

    Cameron is a very lucky politician. Never has there been a better time for reformation of the EU treaties to include border controls and settlemen rights. Even the delay to 2017 for a referendum caused by the Lords vote may play into his hands by giving a chance for such negotiations to happen.

    It does. My point was it will be a brave politician to reinstate it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    Labour's problem with the new media is that they like talking to themselves. So convinced of their cause, they just talk about how correct they are, rather than trying to convince others that they are right.

    If my FB feed before the GE was anything to go by, then Miliband's Labour would have swept to a landslide greater than Blair's in 1997. And it was relentlessly negative: not promoting their own ideas, but trashing the hated, evil Conservatives.

    And it didn't work. Sadly, some are still posting the same stuff. They're intelligent, and they know it doesn't work, so it can only be virtue signalling. ("I'm Labour! I care! I'm good! Tories smell!")

    Some lefties think it's impossible for someone on the right to have friends on the left. It's no wonder they lose - they're in one big circle-jerk where other views are verboten.
    Isn't the stereotype that the left think the right are evil, the right think the left are idiots?

    We do see the latter on here on Tory heavy days, as I'm sure the labour fans would agree.
    Personally, I think there is evil and idiocy in all parties, and they all need to learn to guard against those traits, ;)

    The Conservatives may be about to learn that lesson yet again ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    edited November 2015

    I'm disappointed in you all. I give you a thread that mentions

    "With the quasi-AV voting system the Tory party currently uses to select their leader, you can see a Stop-X candidate doing very well in the forthcoming Tory leadership contest."

    And no one has discussed that part of the thread.

    Patience, we need to build up to that. Though Stop Boris seems the likely option.

    Anyway, back to Fallout4 - damn work getting in the way meant I only managed something like 15 hours on it this week!
  • kle4 said:

    I'm disappointed in you all. I give you a thread that mentions

    "With the quasi-AV voting system the Tory party currently uses to select their leader, you can see a Stop-X candidate doing very well in the forthcoming Tory leadership contest."

    And no one has discussed that part of the thread.

    Patience, we need to build up to that. Though Stop Boris seems the likely option.

    Anyway, back to Fallout4 - damn work getting in the way meant I only managed something like 15 hours on it this week!
    But you all tell me you want to talk more about AV.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    Labour's problem with the new media is that they like talking to themselves. So convinced of their cause, they just talk about how correct they are, rather than trying to convince others that they are right.

    If my FB feed before the GE was anything to go by, then Miliband's Labour would have swept to a landslide greater than Blair's in 1997. And it was relentlessly negative: not promoting their own ideas, but trashing the hated, evil Conservatives.

    And it didn't work. Sadly, some are still posting the same stuff. They're intelligent, and they know it doesn't work, so it can only be virtue signalling. ("I'm Labour! I care! I'm good! Tories smell!")

    Some lefties think it's impossible for someone on the right to have friends on the left. It's no wonder they lose - they're in one big circle-jerk where other views are verboten.
    Isn't the stereotype that the left think the right are evil, the right think the left are idiots?

    We do see the latter on here on Tory heavy days, as I'm sure the labour fans would agree.
    An updated version might be that the right think the left are corrupt. Often pb sees suggestions along the line of people only vote Labour because they've been bribed with over-generous benefits or public sector salaries, or are ghosts in postal vote frauds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626

    kle4 said:

    I'm disappointed in you all. I give you a thread that mentions

    "With the quasi-AV voting system the Tory party currently uses to select their leader, you can see a Stop-X candidate doing very well in the forthcoming Tory leadership contest."

    And no one has discussed that part of the thread.

    Patience, we need to build up to that. Though Stop Boris seems the likely option.

    Anyway, back to Fallout4 - damn work getting in the way meant I only managed something like 15 hours on it this week!
    But you all tell me you want to talk more about AV.
    And when it comes, it takes us time to process, as we've been waiting so long :)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    I'm disappointed in you all. I give you a thread that mentions

    "With the quasi-AV voting system the Tory party currently uses to select their leader, you can see a Stop-X candidate doing very well in the forthcoming Tory leadership contest."

    And no one has discussed that part of the thread.

    These mentions should be only be on weekdays. My therapist does not work weekends.
    :lol:
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    A bubble within a bubble. A political 'safe place' where their views go entirely unchallenged.
    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836
    Alastaire

    "To quote Tracy Chapman, if not now, then when? If not today, then why make your promises"

    or even Tracy Emin....

    "All the mistakes I've ever made in my life have been when I've been drunk. I haven't made hardly any mistakes sober, ever, ever."

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    I'm disappointed in you all. I give you a thread that mentions

    "With the quasi-AV voting system the Tory party currently uses to select their leader, you can see a Stop-X candidate doing very well in the forthcoming Tory leadership contest."

    And no one has discussed that part of the thread.

    Patience, we need to build up to that. Though Stop Boris seems the likely option.

    Anyway, back to Fallout4 - damn work getting in the way meant I only managed something like 15 hours on it this week!
    I do not think Boris has enough support in parliament to make the two that gets through the parliamentary party.

    The Conservative leadership contests do not seem to favour mavericks. George vs one other. He would beat May, but may struggle against Hammond or Paterson.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,570
    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.

    I'm sorry, but that's utter tosh.

    Firstly, Schengen includes a whole bunch of non-EU countries, such as Switzerland.

    Secondly, Brussels being locked down has nothing to do with Schengen. If we had a lock down in - say - Tower Hamlets, would that mean the UK was dead?

    Wake me up when a non-EU country votes to leave Schengen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @PaulFlynnMP: BBC repeated Tory distortion of Corbyn's shoot to kill comment, turned it into an abusrdity & attacked their own creation. Bias multiplied

    @DPJHodges: .@PaulFlynnMP Agreed. It's a disgrace the way the BBC keep filming Jeremy Corbyn and putting his comments on air for people to see.
  • mattmatt Posts: 1,612

    Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?

    FPTP means there is no chance a new party will succeed, at least for many years. MP action needs to be prompted by something concrete. That probably means meltdown across the board in next year's elections. But it will also require the non-hard left Labour Corbynistas - his useful idiots - finally realising what a catastrophe he and his mates are. Again, relentless humiliation in real elections will probably be required.

    As ever, the key to this will be the unions. Unlike most £3ers they have plenty to lose if the Tories stay in power. At some stage they will realise this and the pressure they can put JC and his mates under will be significant and very hard to dismiss.

    You might find it helpful to keep a watching eye on how Nick Palmer is twisting in the wind. I suspect that will be an effective indicator.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Number Cruncher is having fun

    Biggest Con lead in while in govt since Jan 1991. Tied with Jun ComRes for worst Lab % in opposition since Sep 1983. https://t.co/aMgSIxyYXt
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    matt said:

    Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?

    FPTP means there is no chance a new party will succeed, at least for many years. MP action needs to be prompted by something concrete. That probably means meltdown across the board in next year's elections. But it will also require the non-hard left Labour Corbynistas - his useful idiots - finally realising what a catastrophe he and his mates are. Again, relentless humiliation in real elections will probably be required.

    As ever, the key to this will be the unions. Unlike most £3ers they have plenty to lose if the Tories stay in power. At some stage they will realise this and the pressure they can put JC and his mates under will be significant and very hard to dismiss.

    You might find it helpful to keep a watching eye on how Nick Palmer is twisting in the wind. I suspect that will be an effective indicator.
    I don't think so. Nick is a party loyalist, not a rebel. If he has any doubts then they will be revealed after the event.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    McIRA is on Marr
  • Scott_P said:

    @PaulFlynnMP: BBC repeated Tory distortion of Corbyn's shoot to kill comment, turned it into an abusrdity & attacked their own creation. Bias multiplied

    @DPJHodges: .@PaulFlynnMP Agreed. It's a disgrace the way the BBC keep filming Jeremy Corbyn and putting his comments on air for people to see.

    Both are right. In the sense "shoot to kill" has a special meaning, which is shoot suspects who could otherwise be arrested, as is often alleged to have happened in Northern Ireland or, say, on the tube, Corbyn is right.

    In the sense that only a politician with a tin ear would realise this was not the time, and that the public would interpret this literally as meaning no terrorists should ever be shot, even while firing their own guns into crowded bars and concerts, Hodges is right that Corbyn is a total muppet.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,429
    matt said:

    Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?

    FPTP means there is no chance a new party will succeed, at least for many years. MP action needs to be prompted by something concrete. That probably means meltdown across the board in next year's elections. But it will also require the non-hard left Labour Corbynistas - his useful idiots - finally realising what a catastrophe he and his mates are. Again, relentless humiliation in real elections will probably be required.

    As ever, the key to this will be the unions. Unlike most £3ers they have plenty to lose if the Tories stay in power. At some stage they will realise this and the pressure they can put JC and his mates under will be significant and very hard to dismiss.

    You might find it helpful to keep a watching eye on how Nick Palmer is twisting in the wind. I suspect that will be an effective indicator.
    Can't say I have seen NPEXMP doing any twisting, in fact he said he voted for Corbyn because he wanted left wing policies to be promoted in a positive way !!! and that was what JC was doing.!!!! NP finally has the leader he dreamed of.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    FPT after the discussion on temperature, this caught my eye

    Made the mistake of commenting "it's cold in London" to Northern friend. Got this back. https://t.co/p19yeoXSBV
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836
    Now there are no Labour supporters on here you're all going mad and talking to yourselves. Even Southam Observer just pops in three times a day to say the same thing.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,371
    matt said:

    Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?

    FPTP means there is no chance a new party will succeed, at least for many years. MP action needs to be prompted by something concrete. That probably means meltdown across the board in next year's elections. But it will also require the non-hard left Labour Corbynistas - his useful idiots - finally realising what a catastrophe he and his mates are. Again, relentless humiliation in real elections will probably be required.

    As ever, the key to this will be the unions. Unlike most £3ers they have plenty to lose if the Tories stay in power. At some stage they will realise this and the pressure they can put JC and his mates under will be significant and very hard to dismiss.

    You might find it helpful to keep a watching eye on how Nick Palmer is twisting in the wind. I suspect that will be an effective indicator.
    The NP index.
    Here is the NPI....
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger.. so do you..
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,429
    Roger said:

    Now there are no Labour supporters on here you're all going mad and talking to yourselves. Even Southam Observer just pops in three times a day to say the same thing.

    Roger, PB reflects what's going on in politics. Labour is committing hari kiri.. if their supporters on here cant be arsed to post about their own party, frankly, I don't blame them./
  • Mr. kle4, it may delight you to learn that 'Morris' is one of the names that Codsworth will call you, should you name your character thus.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,371
    I see Vicky Pryce is getting business on the BBC, presented as an impartial economic advisor.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Has there been any opinion polls in France after Hollande started to act like Napoleon Bonaparte and solving all the problems in the world ?
  • notme said:

    I see Vicky Pryce is getting business on the BBC, presented as an impartial economic advisor.

    Don't be to harsh on her. For all we know her partner might have coerced her into appearing on the BBC.
  • notmenotme Posts: 2,371

    notme said:

    I see Vicky Pryce is getting business on the BBC, presented as an impartial economic advisor.

    Don't be to harsh on her. For all we know her partner might have coerced her into appearing on the BBC.
    Hopefully she wont tell anyone!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Maybe Huhne was booked but Vicky took his place
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.
    I'm sorry, but that's utter tosh.

    Firstly, Schengen includes a whole bunch of non-EU countries, such as Switzerland.

    Secondly, Brussels being locked down has nothing to do with Schengen. If we had a lock down in - say - Tower Hamlets, would that mean the UK was dead?

    Wake me up when a non-EU country votes to leave Schengen.

    Is it?
    I would agree if just Tower Hamlets had put up border controls. You conveniently ignore the fact that the last time I looked it was Sweden to Greece, UK (always had them) to the borders of Russia. Belgium is in lockdown and Brussels the heart of the EU is paralysed.

    Sorry no , I know you are an ardent EU fan but you are the one speaking "utter tosh"
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,836
    edited November 2015
    Moses

    "Human instinct. We always wish to put off that inevitable visit to the dentist to deal with the niggly tooth. Perhaps another aspirin will do the trick, mouthwash yeah that will stop the pain..... It does, briefly but then it's back and it's worse. Extraction or root canal the only long term answer.

    On reflection a Labour split is realistically now inevitable. The two sides could never now meet and agree. "



    As Dylan Thomas said "Oh, isn't life a terrible thing, thank God?”
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,086
    Osborne waffling, will the turkey still be around for Christmas?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626

    Mr. kle4, it may delight you to learn that 'Morris' is one of the names that Codsworth will call you, should you name your character thus.

    Lucky for some.
    Roger said:

    Now there are no Labour supporters on here you're all going mad and talking to yourselves. Even Southam Observer just pops in three times a day to say the same thing.

    There are not many Corbyn labour supporters, it is true. Even with the government's crap performance recently, sensible tories will need to defend against predictions of a thousand year Tory government, as Labour infighting week makes people fear the worst/hope for the best.
  • Moses_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Moses_ said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12009370/Mali-Bamako-terrorist-attack-170-hostages-Paris-Belgium-live.html#update-20151122-0433

    A bit more detail is emerging about the terrorist threat which led the Belgian authorities to effectively impose a curfrew in Brussels and shut the city down.

    According to Le Soir the police are hunting for at least two terrorists and that other terror cells are poised to act. One of the men who is being hunted by the police could be a suicide bomber, the paper reports.
    Wow! The Belgian Interior Minister wants Molenbeek to be searched house to house!
    This has killed Schengen. When the very heart of the EU is on lock down, streets cleared and borders closed it really is all over. It will take a very brave politician or leader to go back to how it once was without being monstered for putting its citizens at risk. Given Schengen is one of the corner stones then we really are on a sea change that potentially may make our referendum irrelevant after all. Never underestimate the EU unelected's stupidity though not to make the attempt.
    I'm sorry, but that's utter tosh.

    Firstly, Schengen includes a whole bunch of non-EU countries, such as Switzerland.

    Secondly, Brussels being locked down has nothing to do with Schengen. If we had a lock down in - say - Tower Hamlets, would that mean the UK was dead?

    Wake me up when a non-EU country votes to leave Schengen.
    Is it?
    I would agree if just Tower Hamlets had put up border controls. You conveniently ignore the fact that the last time I looked it was Sweden to Greece, UK (always had them) to the borders of Russia. Belgium is in lockdown and Brussels the heart of the EU is paralysed.

    Sorry no , I know you are an ardent EU fan but you are the one speaking "utter tosh"

    Um. Outside of Kipperdom Robert is about as far from an ardent EU fan as it is possible to get. The only point on which I have seen he he disagrees with most Outers is the question of free movement.

    Do not confuse Robert with his Dad. They are very different beasts when it comes to politics from what I have seen on here.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    OchEye said:

    Osborne waffling, will the turkey still be around for Christmas?

    Christmas is a little too early for Corbyn to go, I think.

    Oh... You meant Osborne ...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulFlynnMP: BBC repeated Tory distortion of Corbyn's shoot to kill comment, turned it into an abusrdity & attacked their own creation. Bias multiplied

    @DPJHodges: .@PaulFlynnMP Agreed. It's a disgrace the way the BBC keep filming Jeremy Corbyn and putting his comments on air for people to see.

    Both are right. In the sense "shoot to kill" has a special meaning, which is shoot suspects who could otherwise be arrested, as is often alleged to have happened in Northern Ireland or, say, on the tube, Corbyn is right.

    In the sense that only a politician with a tin ear would realise this was not the time, and that the public would interpret this literally as meaning no terrorists should ever be shot, even while firing their own guns into crowded bars and concerts, Hodges is right that Corbyn is a total muppet.
    Sadly, I carefully re-read Corbyn's actual statement and also listened to a few clips. In fact, it was not that far away or indeed exactly what the current law states.

    It is how and when he says it.

    You need to have a political antenna. All his political life he didn't need to as his supporters heard what they wanted to. To others he was a far flung loony. Rather unfair but that was how he was treated.

    On bombing, I am still not convinced what it will actually achieve. Is it only about Britain's face ? Surely the number of bombs and missile strikes today compared to two months ago far exceeds what Britain would do. It will be tokenistic so that Britain does not look smaller than France when France - Britain summit takes.

    Clearly Britain has a self-esteem problem.

    Do you think Merkel gives a shit that she does not have these toys ? Britain still hankers after being a world power 70 years after giving up the Empire and not realising that it is a small island on the edge of Europe.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh - I see this tweet linked to which is saying McDonnell was talking about creating their own media, social media in particular. After may, why do people still persist in pushing how great social media is as though it's a signifier of political success, or how it proves negative other media is irrelevant? It's great if they are building on social media, but everyone knows now Twitter is not the uk.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/668210002327400448

    Social media are important and played a big part in the Conservative Party winning the general election -- specially-crafted messages were targeted at particular groups of voters, thanks to Messina's analysis. Not to mention that social media are not regulated for electoral purposes so that American-style attack ads could be placed on Youtube that would not be allowed on television.

    Labour's problem with the new media is that they like talking to themselves. So convinced of their cause, they just talk about how correct they are, rather than trying to convince others that they are right.

    If my FB feed before the GE was anything to go by, then Miliband's Labour would have swept to a landslide greater than Blair's in 1997. And it was relentlessly negative: not promoting their own ideas, but trashing the hated, evil Conservatives.

    And it didn't work. Sadly, some are still posting the same stuff. They're intelligent, and they know it doesn't work, so it can only be virtue signalling. ("I'm Labour! I care! I'm good! Tories smell!")

    Some lefties think it's impossible for someone on the right to have friends on the left. It's no wonder they lose - they're in one big circle-jerk where other views are verboten.
    Isn't the stereotype that the left think the right are evil, the right think the left are idiots?

    We do see the latter on here on Tory heavy days, as I'm sure the labour fans would agree.
    An updated version might be that the right think the left are corrupt. Often pb sees suggestions along the line of people only vote Labour because they've been bribed with over-generous benefits or public sector salaries, or are ghosts in postal vote frauds.
    Both sides think that of the other, with some degree of justification. Both Tories and Labour protect some client groups more than is justified, due to electoral concerns. I don't think that the allegations of direct corruption - via donations - are fair but indirectly,via preferential treatment, it's not far off amounting to the same thing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulFlynnMP: BBC repeated Tory distortion of Corbyn's shoot to kill comment, turned it into an abusrdity & attacked their own creation. Bias multiplied

    @DPJHodges: .@PaulFlynnMP Agreed. It's a disgrace the way the BBC keep filming Jeremy Corbyn and putting his comments on air for people to see.

    Both are right. In the sense "shoot to kill" has a special meaning, which is shoot suspects who could otherwise be arrested, as is often alleged to have happened in Northern Ireland or, say, on the tube, Corbyn is right.

    In the sense that only a politician with a tin ear would realise this was not the time, and that the public would interpret this literally as meaning no terrorists should ever be shot, even while firing their own guns into crowded bars and concerts, Hodges is right that Corbyn is a total muppet.
    Sadly, I carefully re-read Corbyn's actual statement and also listened to a few clips. In fact, it was not that far away or indeed exactly what the current law states.

    It is how and when he says it.

    You need to have a political antenna. All his political life he didn't need to as his supporters heard what they wanted to. To others he was a far flung loony. Rather unfair but that was how he was treated.

    On bombing, I am still not convinced what it will actually achieve. Is it only about Britain's face ? Surely the number of bombs and missile strikes today compared to two months ago far exceeds what Britain would do. It will be tokenistic so that Britain does not look smaller than France when France - Britain summit takes.

    Clearly Britain has a self-esteem problem.

    Do you think Merkel gives a shit that she does not have these toys ? Britain still hankers after being a world power 70 years after giving up the Empire and not realising that it is a small island on the edge of Europe.
    From that it seems that it's not Britain who has a self-esteem problem: it's you.
  • matt said:

    Mr. Observer, you don't believe the PLP will attempt to either axe Corbyn or form a break-away party that's leftwing without being demented?

    FPTP means there is no chance a new party will succeed, at least for many years. MP action needs to be prompted by something concrete. That probably means meltdown across the board in next year's elections. But it will also require the non-hard left Labour Corbynistas - his useful idiots - finally realising what a catastrophe he and his mates are. Again, relentless humiliation in real elections will probably be required.

    As ever, the key to this will be the unions. Unlike most £3ers they have plenty to lose if the Tories stay in power. At some stage they will realise this and the pressure they can put JC and his mates under will be significant and very hard to dismiss.

    You might find it helpful to keep a watching eye on how Nick Palmer is twisting in the wind. I suspect that will be an effective indicator.
    Can't say I have seen NPEXMP doing any twisting, in fact he said he voted for Corbyn because he wanted left wing policies to be promoted in a positive way !!! and that was what JC was doing.!!!! NP finally has the leader he dreamed of.
    NP was a Blairite back in the day, though that was also before he'd given up electoral politics. He was also a Communist (long) beforethat. I suspect his support of Corbyn won't long outlast Corbyn's leadership.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulFlynnMP: BBC repeated Tory distortion of Corbyn's shoot to kill comment, turned it into an abusrdity & attacked their own creation. Bias multiplied

    @DPJHodges: .@PaulFlynnMP Agreed. It's a disgrace the way the BBC keep filming Jeremy Corbyn and putting his comments on air for people to see.

    Both are right. In the sense "shoot to kill" has a special meaning, which is shoot suspects who could otherwise be arrested, as is often alleged to have happened in Northern Ireland or, say, on the tube, Corbyn is right.

    In the sense that only a politician with a tin ear would realise this was not the time, and that the public would interpret this literally as meaning no terrorists should ever be shot, even while firing their own guns into crowded bars and concerts, Hodges is right that Corbyn is a total muppet.
    Sadly, I carefully re-read Corbyn's actual statement and also listened to a few clips. In fact, it was not that far away or indeed exactly what the current law states.

    It is how and when he says it.

    You need to have a political antenna. All his political life he didn't need to as his supporters heard what they wanted to. To others he was a far flung loony. Rather unfair but that was how he was treated.

    On bombing, I am still not convinced what it will actually achieve. Is it only about Britain's face ? Surely the number of bombs and missile strikes today compared to two months ago far exceeds what Britain would do. It will be tokenistic so that Britain does not look smaller than France when France - Britain summit takes.

    Clearly Britain has a self-esteem problem.

    Do you think Merkel gives a shit that she does not have these toys ? Britain still hankers after being a world power 70 years after giving up the Empire and not realising that it is a small island on the edge of Europe.
    From that it seems that it's not Britain who has a self-esteem problem: it's you.
    Er,,,why ? I don't want to bomb anyone unless I am actually attacked. To say that Daesh is an existential threat is a lie. It simply demeans all the sacrifices our men and women suffered when hundreds of thousands died. Those were an existential fight. In fact, the cold war was an existential fight even though not single missile was fired in anger.

    Will us bombing them first stop them ? You don't need to look too far. Hollande wanted to act like Bonaparte to increase his poll ratings. He has been at them for more than a year. What has it stopped ?
This discussion has been closed.