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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The diminishing options of the average Labour MP

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The diminishing options of the average Labour MP

The typical Labour MP started off unenthused with Jeremy Corbyn as their new leader in September.  He commanded little respect among his parliamentary colleagues and he only crept onto the ballot paper for the leadership election with loaned votes.  It is fair to say that nothing that has happened since has improved the view of the average Labour MP of their new leader.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,899
    LCFC.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Great visual.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Somehow when he was just Antifrank, he was so much a better read !
  • I do have a postscript to this. The membership are not in general card-carrying trots. They're simply looking for inspiration. Jeremy Corbyn was their best option for inspiration in the summer. They are quite capable of being won over by a more centrist prospectus that convincingly shows not just electability but also that the world can be changed for the better.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

    I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.
    HYUFD said:

    IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

    Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

    We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

    Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

    http://www.gloucesterservices.com.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,899
    edited November 2015
    @moses I think it is run by the same group who run the Tebay or Westmorland services.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    The average Labour MP deserves all he..she gets..
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I do have a postscript to this. The membership are not in general card-carrying trots. They're simply looking for inspiration. Jeremy Corbyn was their best option for inspiration in the summer. They are quite capable of being won over by a more centrist prospectus that convincingly shows not just electability but also that the world can be changed for the better.

    Rather than worrying about whether the leader needs 35 nominations or not, the more pertinent question is: What is the electorate for the next leadership contest ? Is it just the membership or membership + £3 Tories ?

    That will decide who will win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    HYUFD said:

    IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

    The Labour Party rule-book of 2015 is not the Conservative Party rule-book of 2003.

    There is a basic logic to the notion that if there is a process to ensure there is a challenger, then there also has to be somebody in place to challenge. So Corbyn is automatically on the ballot. Or else, it isn't a challenge. It is a coup.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,395
    Is it possible for the parliamentary party to "go over the head" of the membership to appeal directly to (erstwhile) Labour voters? The problem is that the Corbynite tendency in the party membership has driven a wedge between MPs and voters.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429

    The average Labour MP deserves all he..she gets..


    And aren't those Labour MP's average?!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    Thanks AM. As usual a thought-provoking read.

    Even taking into account your postscript, it does sound as if Labour are screwed for the next couple of years, external events excluded.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    Moses_ said:

    O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

    Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

    We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

    Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

    http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

    I stopped by here on my way to North Devon, the food was very pleasent to eat by the pond/lake? outside. It made a very pleasent start to our holiday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429

    I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

    I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

    HYUFD said:

    IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

    Labour has all the attractions of a dating agency for praying mantis...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    edited November 2015
    surbiton said:

    I do have a postscript to this. The membership are not in general card-carrying trots. They're simply looking for inspiration. Jeremy Corbyn was their best option for inspiration in the summer. They are quite capable of being won over by a more centrist prospectus that convincingly shows not just electability but also that the world can be changed for the better.

    Rather than worrying about whether the leader needs 35 nominations or not, the more pertinent question is: What is the electorate for the next leadership contest ? Is it just the membership or membership + £3 Tories ?

    That will decide who will win.
    Surely the process for electing a leader has not altered in the last few months, and is unlikely to shift towards anything that would advantage the centre with Corbyn in charge. In fact, as it says above, quite the opposite.

    Centrist MPs are in more danger politically than Corbyn, at least at the moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    I hope Corbyn lasts long enough for this grand experiment in new leadership stylings to be entirely discredited, or even, which seems remarkable but let's include for the possibility, vindicated. As the piece says, he put forward a prospectus which the membership rewarded, so best to see this through to the unexpected victory or the bitter end.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    geoffw said:

    Is it possible for the parliamentary party to "go over the head" of the membership to appeal directly to (erstwhile) Labour voters? The problem is that the Corbynite tendency in the party membership has driven a wedge between MPs and voters.

    The only way that works is if they all resign as MPs and go get a new mandate from their voters, not from their local party. Even getting nominated as the Labour candidate would be fun...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    In a perverse way, I feel quite vindicated in spending £3 to vote for him. We need a credible Opposition to the Tories. Labour haven't and aren't providing one.

    Jezza is just the worst possible outcome for Labour - but 250k of them voted for him - it's entirely their own fault. Blaming me and others for it is laughable.

    Until Labour grows up in a serious way and stops harking back 70yrs+, they're not going anywhere near power - which is another reason why I'm entirely unconcerned about any supposed *threat* Corbyn is. He's not since he's unelectable as the LotO.
    kle4 said:

    I hope Corbyn lasts long enough for this grand experiment in new leadership stylings to be entirely discredited, or even, which seems remarkable but let's include for the possibility, vindicated. As the piece says, he put forward a prospectus which the membership rewarded, so best to see this through to the unexpected victory or the bitter end.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,985

    I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

    I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

    Popular with the membership, unpopular with the hierarchy, rapidly hemorrhaging support, losing once-solid redoubts...Nick Clegg, obviously

    Or, come to think of it, Hitler. Has anybody done a "Downfall" video yet?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300

    The only way that works is if they all resign as MPs and go get a new mandate from their voters, not from their local party. Even getting nominated as the Labour candidate would be fun...

    They don't need a new mandate. They got a mandate in May from 9m people on an explicitly non-Corbynite platform.

    Corbyn and his 145,000 can stick it...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    I do have a postscript to this. The membership are not in general card-carrying trots. They're simply looking for inspiration. Jeremy Corbyn was their best option for inspiration in the summer. They are quite capable of being won over by a more centrist prospectus that convincingly shows not just electability but also that the world can be changed for the better.

    Rather than worrying about whether the leader needs 35 nominations or not, the more pertinent question is: What is the electorate for the next leadership contest ? Is it just the membership or membership + £3 Tories ?

    That will decide who will win.
    Surely the process for electing a leader has not altered in the last few months, and is unlikely to shift towards anything that would advantage the centre with Corbyn in charge. In fact, as it says above, quite the opposite.

    Centrist MPs are in more danger politically than Corbyn, at least at the moment.
    Not quite. Are the £3 Tories now a constitutional part of the election procedure or was it just a decision of the NEC only for the election just concluded ?

    I do not think a membership only election would necessarily return the same final result. Even last time, 49% voted for Corbyn. This could easily be 45% or lower next time. I don't think Corbyn would get too many votes in Round 2,3 ...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    We need body-doubles first :wink:
    viewcode said:

    I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

    I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

    Popular with the membership, unpopular with the hierarchy, rapidly hemorrhaging support, losing once-solid redoubts...Nick Clegg, obviously

    Or, come to think of it, Hitler. Has anybody done a "Downfall" video yet?
  • That reminds me, we're playing the Spanners this afternoon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    I'm reluctant to say this, but I'm bored stiff of these IDS et al comparisons from ages ago. Corbyn is in a league of his own along with his brow-beating comrades.

    I really can't see ANY valid comparisons with ANY Party right now.

    HYUFD said:

    IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

    In November 2001 there were two polls, one from ICM had the Tories on 29% and Labour on 46% another from Mori had the Tories on 25% and Labour on 56% so I think the comparison holds
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    HYUFD said:

    IDS won 60% of Tory members in 2001 and yet he was replaced by Michael Howard by MPs without consulting the members, Labour is now polling as low as Michael Foot did in its worst ever poll defeat. Labour should forget this membership (made up anyway of significant numbers of leftwing entryists since the New Labour years) and any war would be better than the abysmal electoral fate it faces under Corbyn. Kinnock had a war with militant and saved the Labour Party, had there been no war it may well have turned into nothing more than a pressure group

    The Labour Party rule-book of 2015 is not the Conservative Party rule-book of 2003.

    There is a basic logic to the notion that if there is a process to ensure there is a challenger, then there also has to be somebody in place to challenge. So Corbyn is automatically on the ballot. Or else, it isn't a challenge. It is a coup.

    Well it will have to be a coup as effectively Howard replacing IDS was a coup, Hilary Benn will in effect have to be nominated by virtually all the PLP
  • The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,386
    What Labour needs, and quick, is absolutely catastrophic election results, which will force the more nervous MPs to act, and frighten the membership.

    These deluded Corbynite cretins can ignore polls till doomsday, but thet can't ignore actual votes in actual elections.

    So Labour need to do very badly, or to lose, in Oldham, London, Scotland, Europe, and all and any other by-elections. To do this they need to make the party look divided and useless, which, funnily enough, is exactly what the anti-Corbyn right is doing as of this moment.
  • TomTom Posts: 272
    Good piece. The Unions are the great unmentioned here. There have been/are Gen Sec elections for two of the big 3 unions this year (GMB and Unison) this year which led to a bidding war of left stupidity. It was interesting to see Dave Prentiss being critical of Corbyn today - the calculation may now be that there are more votes in being against him than for him, or at least hedging bets. It is also odd that Corbyn has chosen to take the PLP on on the one issue on which they and not he have union support - Trident. If the money stops and they turn against him he is gone. Odds are that not happening yet but i think its the only way he'll be gone quickly. Suspect we'll need to lose Oldham or London or both. Tom Watson has been awful quite which would worry me if i were Jez.

    One of the problems with him walking away gracefully is there isn't really any capable leftist for him to hand over to, they are all hopeless.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    TBH, until they've worked out what vision they have for the future - I think it's nails-on-the-donkey-tail stuff.

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Harriet
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Moses_ said:

    O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

    Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

    We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

    Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

    http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

    Sheesh, I never complain about motorway service stations. Mind you, bladder permitting, I only stop at those that have a Burger King outlet. The extra-large bacon double cheese burger with double fries and a diet coke (a snip at only about 2000 calories) - can only be experienced in all its revolting glory at a motorway service station. Anywhere else (except maybe Victoria Station after an evening on the pop) and it is just too downmarket even to consider.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    IIRC Prentiss has broken cover - but isn't Uncle Len the main player here? He's at one with Corbyn politically - or a trifle to his left.
    Tom said:

    Good piece. The Unions are the great unmentioned here. There have been/are Gen Sec elections for two of the big 3 unions this year (GMB and Unison) this year which led to a bidding war of left stupidity. It was interesting to see Dave Prentiss being critical of Corbyn today - the calculation may now be that there are more votes in being against him than for him, or at least hedging bets. It is also odd that Corbyn has chosen to take the PLP on on the one issue on which they and not he have union support - Trident. If the money stops and they turn against him he is gone. Odds are that not happening yet but i think its the only way he'll be gone quickly. Suspect we'll need to lose Oldham or London or both. Tom Watson has been awful quite which would worry me if i were Jez.

    One of the problems with him walking away gracefully is there isn't really any capable leftist for him to hand over to, they are all hopeless.

  • TomTom Posts: 272

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Not true. Probably 15 to 20%, which shows how bad Kendall's campaign was. But yes the Labour 'sweet spot' is soft left, and nostalgic - Jeremy sold them a better yesterday.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    All the salt in that mega-meal would stop you peeing for a week :wink:

    Moses_ said:

    O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

    Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

    We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

    Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

    http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

    Sheesh, I never complain about motorway service stations. Mind you, bladder permitting, I only stop at those that have a Burger King outlet. The extra-large bacon double cheese burger with double fries and a diet coke (a snip at only about 2000 calories) - can only be experienced in all its revolting glory at a motorway service station. Anywhere else (except maybe Victoria Station after an evening on the pop) and it is just too downmarket even to consider.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited November 2015
    Harman..Harman..hehehe...Harman..wow..that should right the ship..hehehehhhh
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    0_o Belgium?!
    As Britain's Davis Cup team delay their trip to Belgium, the Foreign Office has updated its guidance for travelling to the country.

    It is now advising visitors not to go to places in the country with large numbers of people. Here are the full details
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12010302/Brussels-Belgium-terror-alert-on-Sunday-as-Paris-manhunt-goes-on-live.html#update-20151122-1536
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    HL Why bother with the diet coke.
  • TomTom Posts: 272
    Uncle Len supported Burnham and didn't want Corbyn. I suspect Uncle Len and Tom Watson have been having some of the most important conversations for Labour's future of late.

    Prentiss is furious because the idiot Corbyn has managed to focus media coverage of Labour on issues which are bad for Labour and which are either of no interest to his members or on which they are as likely to oppose Corbyn as support him. Such self indulgence is unlikely to be forgotten.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,670
    edited November 2015
    Skimming the ComRes poll, one thing struck me in particular - the marked demographic skew in Corbyn's ratings. At its simplest, those old enough to remember a left-wing Labour government really don't like him:

    'I Trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep me & my family safe: (net agree)
    18-24: -15
    25-34: -19
    35-44: -29
    45-54: -41
    55-64: -58
    65+ : -70

    Net Favourable view of Jeremy Corbyn:
    18-24: 0
    25-34: -5
    35-44: -15
    45-54: -28
    55-64: -45
    65+ : -62

    Edit - Corbyn's ratings also are weakest in the Midlands.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
  • SeanT said:

    What Labour needs, and quick, is absolutely catastrophic election results, which will force the more nervous MPs to act, and frighten the membership.

    These deluded Corbynite cretins can ignore polls till doomsday, but thet can't ignore actual votes in actual elections.

    So Labour need to do very badly, or to lose, in Oldham, London, Scotland, Europe, and all and any other by-elections. To do this they need to make the party look divided and useless, which, funnily enough, is exactly what the anti-Corbyn right is doing as of this moment.

    That might be a problem. IDS actually did quite well at the ballot box; it was in the House of Commons that he couldn't hack it, and lost the parliamentary party who defenestrated him in a well-planned coup.

    Corbyn has already lost the PLP, of course. That Hilary Benn is mooted to take the Michael Howard role is hardly encouraging. Would-be successors need to make their name by opposing the government, not their own side.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Have a look at the C2D2 class bit too - I saw some hideous figs posted on Twitter earlier.

    Skimming the ComRes poll, one thing struck me in particular - the marked demographic skew in Corbyn's ratings. At its simplest, those old enough to remember a left-wing Labour government really don't like him:

    'I Trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep me & my family safe: (net agree)
    18-24: -15
    25-34: -19
    35-44: -29
    45-54: -41
    55-64: -58
    65+ : -70

    Net Favourable view of Jeremy Corbyn:
    18-24: 0
    25-34: -5
    35-44: -15
    45-54: -28
    55-64: -45
    65+ : -62

  • HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.
  • TomTom Posts: 272
    At its simplest, those old enough to remember a left-wing Labour government really don't like him.

    I didn't know they could pick up the dead in opinion polls. I think its mainly people who are old enough to remember a left wing Labour opposition!
  • HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Charismatic?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    HL Why bother with the diet coke.

    I should have thought that obvious, Mr. Dodd. You have to wash the stuff down with some sort of soft drink and just think of the calories in a full-fat Coke. One must not go overboard on these occasions.
  • Have a look at the C2D2 class bit too - I saw some hideous figs posted on Twitter earlier.

    Skimming the ComRes poll, one thing struck me in particular - the marked demographic skew in Corbyn's ratings. At its simplest, those old enough to remember a left-wing Labour government really don't like him:

    'I Trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep me & my family safe: (net agree)
    18-24: -15
    25-34: -19
    35-44: -29
    45-54: -41
    55-64: -58
    65+ : -70

    Net Favourable view of Jeremy Corbyn:
    18-24: 0
    25-34: -5
    35-44: -15
    45-54: -28
    55-64: -45
    65+ : -62

    Yes - C2 are out of whack vs C1 and DE:

    Net Favourable:
    AB: -39
    C1: -21
    C2: -30
    DE: -25
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited November 2015
    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.
  • Moses_ said:

    O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

    Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

    We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

    Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

    http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

    I've had a look at the site and can't find a menu anywhere, though they seem to have farm shops and dog walks.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I cannot stand Benn.. he is a hypocrite just like his father..however he might be able to pull together a decent opposition .. which Labour are not at the moment
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,334
    I'm amazed that no-one has yet challenged Corbyn in some way.

    The Labour young pretenders turn out to be mostly that it seems.

    It may of course be that Corbyn and co are the real deal and will lead Labour to power and the country to wealth and equality. ("Pigs with lead boots might fly" in my view, but it is possible). Failing that though they'll finish up with invaluable shadow-ministerial experience being notched up by the wrong people - Eagles, Abbot, McDonnell. Labour already had a problem with a lack of fresh blood, and this is making things worse.

    It can't go on like this!

    PS I get a squiggly red line under both 'Corbyn' and 'Labour' when typing this. Does my PC know something!?

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Good piece, Mr. Meeks. It did get me wondering: if Corbyn can ignore the PLP to shift power to the membership, can't the PLP ignore Corbyn and shift power to a Shadow Leader?

    Suppose Cooper, for argument's sake, gets spoken of by 100 plus Labour MPs as a good leader. And they take their voting cues in Parliament from her. Labour, de facto, becomes a diarchy rather than a monarchy.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 8,286
    edited November 2015
    Some irony that the passing of an old hard-left MP might be the straw that breaks the back of a hard-left leadership.

    Also looking at the PL league table on BBC website, Spurs should rebrand themselves by dropping the cockerel and using this old friend instead:

    --------------------------
    5. Tottenham Hotspur
    --------------------------
  • HL Why bother with the diet coke.

    I should have thought that obvious, Mr. Dodd. You have to wash the stuff down with some sort of soft drink and just think of the calories in a full-fat Coke. One must not go overboard on these occasions.
    Yes, full-fat Coke has as many calories and as much sugar as orange juice. A normal-sized bacon double cheeseburger for me, though, so I can risk it.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    HL Some sort of deranged logic there..like choosing the 12 bore as against the 16 bore when you come to blow your head off..
  • Tom said:


    I didn't know they could pick up the dead in opinion polls. I think its mainly people who are old enough to remember a left wing Labour opposition!

    Someone who was 18 in 1979 is 54 now.......so not dead yet......and if people start remembering stuff from say age 10, then they would be in their mid-forties:

    Net Favourable unweighted average
    Under 35: -2
    35-55: -22
    55+: -54
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I do have a postscript to this. The membership are not in general card-carrying trots. They're simply looking for inspiration. Jeremy Corbyn was their best option for inspiration in the summer. They are quite capable of being won over by a more centrist prospectus that convincingly shows not just electability but also that the world can be changed for the better.

    Rather than worrying about whether the leader needs 35 nominations or not, the more pertinent question is: What is the electorate for the next leadership contest ? Is it just the membership or membership + £3 Tories ?

    That will decide who will win.
    Surely the process for electing a leader has not altered in the last few months, and is unlikely to shift towards anything that would advantage the centre with Corbyn in charge. In fact, as it says above, quite the opposite.

    Centrist MPs are in more danger politically than Corbyn, at least at the moment.
    Not quite. Are the £3 Tories now a constitutional part of the election procedure or was it just a decision of the NEC only for the election just concluded ?

    I do not think a membership only election would necessarily return the same final result. Even last time, 49% voted for Corbyn. This could easily be 45% or lower next time. I don't think Corbyn would get too many votes in Round 2,3 ...
    The £3 Tories are irrelevant. ISTR (although might be wrong) that the majority of non-Labour people taking advantage of the £3 deal were Greens and SWP types. I think there were some figures floating around during the campaign.

    And you miss the point: Corbyn is rapidly capturing the capability to change the rules. Given this, he is more likely to change them towards rules that advantage his type of thinking than away from it. Besides, as he advantaged from it, you cannot blame him for keeping it.

    Expect the next leadership election, if it is more than six months away, to have rules that further advantage the left.
  • Omnium said:


    PS I get a squiggly red line under both 'Corbyn' and 'Labour' when typing this. Does my PC know something!?

    It knows you are in America. Sort out the spelling or dictionary options in your browser settings.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Nah, Mr Llama is saving space for future Burger do-das.

    Deranged logic is an old friend of mine called Spacey [as in Hopper]. He bought a salad to go with his as he was on *diet*

    HL Some sort of deranged logic there..like choosing the 12 bore as against the 16 bore when you come to blow your head off..

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,334

    0_o Belgium?!

    As Britain's Davis Cup team delay their trip to Belgium, the Foreign Office has updated its guidance for travelling to the country.

    It is now advising visitors not to go to places in the country with large numbers of people. Here are the full details
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12010302/Brussels-Belgium-terror-alert-on-Sunday-as-Paris-manhunt-goes-on-live.html#update-20151122-1536

    World's gone mad!

    It was interesting yesterday that they wanted to do house to house surveys. I'd not mind that at all if they came knocking. National ID cards seem a good idea now in retrospect too.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Famous Belgians won't be Hercule Poirot for much longer at this rate.
    Omnium said:

    0_o Belgium?!

    As Britain's Davis Cup team delay their trip to Belgium, the Foreign Office has updated its guidance for travelling to the country.

    It is now advising visitors not to go to places in the country with large numbers of people. Here are the full details
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12010302/Brussels-Belgium-terror-alert-on-Sunday-as-Paris-manhunt-goes-on-live.html#update-20151122-1536
    World's gone mad!

    It was interesting yesterday that they wanted to do house to house surveys. I'd not mind that at all if they came knocking. National ID cards seem a good idea now in retrospect too.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Big boost for Trump in new national Fox poll, he leads the GOP field clearly and beats Hillary in the general election (although bear in mind Fox leans GOP, Hillary still leads Trump by 4.4% on average)

    Trump 28%
    Carson 18%
    Rubio 14%
    Cruz 14%
    Bush 5%

    Rubio 50 Hillary 42
    Jeb 45 Hillary 39
    Carson 47 Hillary 42
    Trump 46 Hillary 41
    Cruz 45 Hillary 41
    Christie 46 Hillary 43

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/11/20/fox-news-poll-2016-matchups-syrian-refugees/
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
  • Mr. Omnium, no, they don't.

    The state having the right to demand 'papers, please' will provide a hacker's wet dream of a database. It will not stop clean-skin psychopaths from killing people, nor deter criminals from entering the country illegally to commit mass murder.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    CBS Iowa

    Trump....30 %
    Cruz........21 %
    Carson....19 %
    Rubio.......11 %
    Bush.........5 %
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-retakes-lead-cruz-surges-in-ia-rubio-second-in-nh/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,334

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Good piece, Mr. Meeks. It did get me wondering: if Corbyn can ignore the PLP to shift power to the membership, can't the PLP ignore Corbyn and shift power to a Shadow Leader?

    Suppose Cooper, for argument's sake, gets spoken of by 100 plus Labour MPs as a good leader. And they take their voting cues in Parliament from her. Labour, de facto, becomes a diarchy rather than a monarchy.

    Strategic genius Mr Dancer. They'll not do it though.
  • HYUFD said:

    Big boost for Trump in new national Fox poll, he leads the GOP field clearly and beats Hillary in the general election (although bear in mind Fox leans GOP, Hillary still leads Trump by 4.4% on average)

    Trump 28%
    Carson 18%
    Rubio 14%
    Cruz 14%
    Bush 5%

    Rubio 50 Hillary 42
    Jeb 45 Hillary 39
    Carson 47 Hillary 42
    Trump 46 Hillary 41
    Cruz 45 Hillary 41
    Christie 46 Hillary 43

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/11/20/fox-news-poll-2016-matchups-syrian-refugees/
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    On those numbers the Democrats need a Plan B PDQ. Draft Biden.
  • We live in Interesting Times

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/labour-resistance-using-secret-code-in-corbyn-downfall-plot

    Isn't 'May your children live in interesting times' an old Arab curse?
  • Mr. Omnium, you're too kind.

    I agree they won't do it.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    So Masonic handshakes are out then?

    We live in Interesting Times

    http://www.sunnation.co.uk/labour-resistance-using-secret-code-in-corbyn-downfall-plot

    Isn't 'May your children live in interesting times' an old Arab curse?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    CBS New Hampshire

    Trump 32%
    Rubio 13%
    Carson 10%
    Cruz 10%
    Kasich 8%
    Bush 6%


    CBS South Carolina

    Trump 35%
    Carson 19%
    Rubio 16%
    Cruz 13%
    Bush 5%

    74% of GOP voters back ground forces in Syria
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-retakes-lead-cruz-surges-in-ia-rubio-second-in-nh/

    Suffolk/Boston New Hampshire

    Trump – 22%
    Rubio – 11%
    Carson – 10%
    Cruz – 9%
    Kasich – 9%
    Bush – 8%
    Christie – 4%
    Fiorina – 4%
    Paul – 3%
    Huckabee – 1%
    Graham – *
    Pataki – *
    Santorum – 0%
    Undecided – 18%

    If Romney changed his mind he leads Trump in NH 31%-15%
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/11/21/gop-voters-would-prefer-romney/WiU9f86jd19UkXYQfb2yxM/story.html
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,334

    Mr. Omnium, no, they don't.

    The state having the right to demand 'papers, please' will provide a hacker's wet dream of a database. It will not stop clean-skin psychopaths from killing people, nor deter criminals from entering the country illegally to commit mass murder.

    I see your point. I don't mind if people know my name though (he says writing under a pseudonym).

    I think the sweet spot is minimal data collection with maximal use. So for example if you had been seen leaving the country then it's implausible that you're trying to get into Buck house on a tour.

    A spin-off would be that we'd have to invest in some serious computing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Charismatic?
    Neither was Howard, they need an experienced unity candidate first
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.
    We shall see
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2015

    Moses_ said:

    O/T curse new thread etc. Might save you money for more betting though.......

    Just driven southbound down the M5 and stopped at services just north of Junction 12. Had Sunday lunch which was superb. The place is not set like a normal service station and has been buried into a hill. Clean tidy and fairly new I think as I do t remember noticing it before as we always stopped at MIchael woods further south.

    We all winge about services on motorways but I can Highly recommend if you are passing on M5 ( southbound only) . They appear to have others around the country as well and if they all like this then you will not be disappointed.

    Edit - prices are also very competitive and not like normal service stations that charge the earth.

    http://www.gloucesterservices.com.

    I've had a look at the site and can't find a menu anywhere, though they seem to have farm shops and dog walks.
    No I see what you mean.

    Think Farm shop...they have a fresh meat but there's a there a fish counter (small) all meant are off the local farm all burgers look homemade. Dont expect MakkieD, Costa coffe or Starbucks. They have. Quick sandwich area all freshly made not packed and delivered, , a roast meat area for all the normal dinners and a varied fish menu . A healthy eating area , a pasta area for pizza and Italian styles food. The cakes selection was like a Lyons tea shop ( if you can remember those). You can also get fuel here from a fuel station also built into the hillside.

    Point was this was not your normal service station and as pulp star mentioned up thread sitting by the lake and eating Sunday dinner was superb and enjoyable. Plenty of space, not overly crowded but busy, lots of tables and smal areas to sit quiet. The whole place looks environmentally friendly and you have to really see it to get the theme of it and enjoy the food. Staff were very friendly nothing too much trouble for them. Never ever thought I would say that about a service station.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    HYUFD said:

    Big boost for Trump in new national Fox poll, he leads the GOP field clearly and beats Hillary in the general election (although bear in mind Fox leans GOP, Hillary still leads Trump by 4.4% on average)

    Trump 28%
    Carson 18%
    Rubio 14%
    Cruz 14%
    Bush 5%

    Rubio 50 Hillary 42
    Jeb 45 Hillary 39
    Carson 47 Hillary 42
    Trump 46 Hillary 41
    Cruz 45 Hillary 41
    Christie 46 Hillary 43

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/11/20/fox-news-poll-2016-matchups-syrian-refugees/
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    On those numbers the Democrats need a Plan B PDQ. Draft Biden.
    Fox has had Trump leading Clinton before, as I said it is the most GOP leaning pollster, on average Hillary still leads the RCP average, if that changes maybe
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,334

    Nah, Mr Llama is saving space for future Burger do-das.

    Deranged logic is an old friend of mine called Spacey [as in Hopper]. He bought a salad to go with his as he was on *diet*

    HL Some sort of deranged logic there..like choosing the 12 bore as against the 16 bore when you come to blow your head off..

    You have a friend called Spacey-Hopper? I used to have a Space-Hopper. I wonder if it's the same orange thing?
  • Re Benn - as I indicated before, if the main markets move too fast, then backing Benn (current at 15-17) would be value if the wheels of a coup are in force against Corbyn. that hasn't happened yet obviously!
  • Mr. Omnium, sounds like you want to re-establish exit controls, as I think they were called, which were abolished early on by New Labour. [I think they just took a note of who and how many people were leaving the country].
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Charismatic?
    Neither was Howard, they need an experienced unity candidate first
    Experienced?

    Howard had served as a Secretary of State of one of the great offices of state. Which great office of state has Benn been Secretary for in government?
  • surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The ComRes polls for the Daily Mail are phone polls and the ComRes polls for the Sunday Mirror/IOS are online
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted
    But that does not explain why, for example:


    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent CON 42 - 42 - 42; LAB 30 - 29 -27

    Tory lead 12 - 13 - 15

    whereas,

    Comres Daily Mail CON 42 - 39 - 38; LAB 28 - 30 - 33

    Tory lead 14 - 9 - 5
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Famous Belgians won't be Hercule Poirot for much longer at this rate.

    Omnium said:

    0_o Belgium?!

    As Britain's Davis Cup team delay their trip to Belgium, the Foreign Office has updated its guidance for travelling to the country.

    It is now advising visitors not to go to places in the country with large numbers of people. Here are the full details
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12010302/Brussels-Belgium-terror-alert-on-Sunday-as-Paris-manhunt-goes-on-live.html#update-20151122-1536
    World's gone mad!

    It was interesting yesterday that they wanted to do house to house surveys. I'd not mind that at all if they came knocking. National ID cards seem a good idea now in retrospect too.



    I seem to recollect that TInTIn was good at sorting this sort of stuff out. How times change.
  • HYUFD said:

    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.
    We shall see
    If Corbyn sticks to his present line and applies a whip then I can see the Syria vote becoming a rallying point for prospective stalking horses.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Re Benn - as I indicated before, if the main markets move too fast, then backing Benn (current at 15-17) would be value if the wheels of a coup are in force against Corbyn. that hasn't happened yet obviously!

    Benn does not have too many enemies !
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,334

    Mr. Omnium, sounds like you want to re-establish exit controls, as I think they were called, which were abolished early on by New Labour. [I think they just took a note of who and how many people were leaving the country].

    We mostly have that anyway don't we? If you book a flight to sunny climes you'll be noted as such.

    There are benefits as well as downsides to the government knowing where you are - tea at the Embassy for example.
  • HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted
    No they both use the same ComRes turnout voter model
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted
    But that does not explain why, for example:


    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent CON 42 - 42 - 42; LAB 30 - 29 -27

    Tory lead 12 - 13 - 15

    whereas,

    Comres Daily Mail CON 42 - 39 - 38; LAB 28 - 30 - 33

    Tory lead 14 - 9 - 5
    It may also be the last Comres DM poll was taken post tax credits row, the latest Comres Independent poll post Corbyn's 'non shoot to kill' statement
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted
    But that does not explain why, for example:


    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent CON 42 - 42 - 42; LAB 30 - 29 -27

    Tory lead 12 - 13 - 15

    whereas,

    Comres Daily Mail CON 42 - 39 - 38; LAB 28 - 30 - 33

    Tory lead 14 - 9 - 5
    It may also be the last Comres DM poll was taken post tax credits row, the latest Comres Independent poll post Corbyn's 'non shoot to kill' statement
    Possibly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    edited November 2015

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Charismatic?
    Neither was Howard, they need an experienced unity candidate first
    Experienced?

    Howard had served as a Secretary of State of one of the great offices of state. Which great office of state has Benn been Secretary for in government?
    Hilary Benn was Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural affairs and International Development, he is also Shadow Foreign Secretary as Howard was Shadow Chancellor, there is no alternative!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted
    But that does not explain why, for example:


    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent CON 42 - 42 - 42; LAB 30 - 29 -27

    Tory lead 12 - 13 - 15

    whereas,

    Comres Daily Mail CON 42 - 39 - 38; LAB 28 - 30 - 33

    Tory lead 14 - 9 - 5
    It may also be the last Comres DM poll was taken post tax credits row, the latest Comres Independent poll post Corbyn's 'non shoot to kill' statement
    Possibly.
    We will await further polling to confirm
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,429
    surbiton said:

    Re Benn - as I indicated before, if the main markets move too fast, then backing Benn (current at 15-17) would be value if the wheels of a coup are in force against Corbyn. that hasn't happened yet obviously!

    Benn does not have too many enemies !
    Legions of Corbynistas are making Benn voodoo dollies as we speak....
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Charismatic?
    Neither was Howard, they need an experienced unity candidate first
    Experienced?

    Howard had served as a Secretary of State of one of the great offices of state. Which great office of state has Benn been Secretary for in government?
    Hilary Benn Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural affairs and International Development, he is also Shadow Foreign Secretary as Howard was Shadow Chancellor, there is no alternative!
    Neither DEFRA nor International Development are great offices of state comparable to Home Secretary. The comparison is very weak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/SM-IoS_Political-Poll_November-2015-4123.pdf

    Does anyone know why does the Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls and the Comres Daily Mail polls differ so markedly ?

    Comres Sunday Mirror/Independent polls November, October, September virtually identical

    Comres Daily Mail polls similar to each other except Labour improving 5% since August and the Tories falling 4%.

    They must use different methodologies otherwise they could not be so markedly different.

    The Comres Independent polls are I think more turnout adjusted
    No they both use the same ComRes turnout voter model
    I believe Comres for the Independent also weights for demographics on turnout, not just whether voters say they will vote or not, if that applies to both so be it, as I said the explanation may be on the tax credits row being pre DM poll the Security row pre Independent poll we shall see
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I thought @surbiton was a Corbynista - is that wrong?

    surbiton said:

    Re Benn - as I indicated before, if the main markets move too fast, then backing Benn (current at 15-17) would be value if the wheels of a coup are in force against Corbyn. that hasn't happened yet obviously!

    Benn does not have too many enemies !
    Legions of Corbynistas are making Benn voodoo dollies as we speak....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.
    We shall see
    If Corbyn sticks to his present line and applies a whip then I can see the Syria vote becoming a rallying point for prospective stalking horses.
    I think Corbyn still gets at least two years
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.
    We shall see
    If Corbyn sticks to his present line and applies a whip then I can see the Syria vote becoming a rallying point for prospective stalking horses.
    It will certainly be a watershed moment. If he fails to carry the PLP on such a vote then he could carry no other and as you say the Stalking horse would most likely appear. If The PLP fails to have the cojones to resist the three line whip theN Corby could as good as do what he likes and would not be removed.

    The ironic thing is that either way he will have a de facto civil war behind the scenes and spend more time looking at people behind him than in front. Not good for Labour either way really. All their own fault as well.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,429
    HYUFD said:

    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 'right' of the Labour Party represents 4.5% of the membership. They are not going to regain control. However, a charismatic figure of the 'soft left' could garner enough support from across the party to beat JC in a head to head contest. Any suggestions on who that might be?

    Hilary Benn obviously, though I expect him to be anointed unopposed only once virtually all Labour MPs are on board
    Might not be too far away if Cameron can get enough on board in the Syria vote.
    We shall see
    If Corbyn sticks to his present line and applies a whip then I can see the Syria vote becoming a rallying point for prospective stalking horses.
    I think Corbyn still gets at least two years
    in prison?
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