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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn might have to face another tricky electoral test in

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn might have to face another tricky electoral test in the New Year

Word has reached from a reliable source that another another safe LAB seat where the the party might have to fight a by-election. It would take place during the first half of 2016.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • Fascinating.
  • @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 40% (-)
    Leave: 38% (-2)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 24 Nov)
  • A Lab v Con by election would be great.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,077

    @britainelects: EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 40% (-)
    Leave: 38% (-2)
    (via YouGov / 19 - 24 Nov)

    All to play for.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    Is this the rumoured Huddersfield or Coventry NW ?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    What's the definition of a *safe Labour seat* these days? :wink:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    If UKIP can get close in Oldham, then they can get close anywhere in the north I reckon (Except Westmorland maybe)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @chrisshipitv: I was looking at the list of 9 @libdems rebels on Syria in 2013 to see how they might vote this time. Thing is, not one of them still an MP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033

    What's the definition of a *safe Labour seat* these days? :wink:

    Glasgow East, no wait, Bradford. Errm hold on Heywood. I mean Oldham. Errm

    East Ham !
  • McDonnell thoughts on Mao...



    HatTip:- HurryUpHarry
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sheerman or Robinson - two very long standing names. Either are likely candidates - I thought Barry had been tipped to retire to allow DMili to come back too.
    Pulpstar said:

    Is this the rumoured Huddersfield or Coventry NW ?

  • I don’t know the seat or the MP but my understanding is that, unlike Oldham West and Royton, this is not natural UKIP territory.

    Islington North?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,899
    During the summer, Bristol West's MP has had treatment for breast cancer, and the UKIP vote isn't particularly strong. It is possible that she is responding well to treatment, and that the by-election isn't in the West.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    What's the definition of a *safe Labour seat* these days? :wink:

    Islington.
  • After the events of yesterday, is the seat Hayes and Harlington?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    dr_spyn said:

    During the summer, Bristol West's MP has had treatment for breast cancer, and the UKIP vote isn't particularly strong. It is possible that she is responding well to treatment, and that the by-election isn't in the West.

    Lib Dems would put a real effort into Bristol West I reckon.
  • Tim Farron gone down like a lead balloon in the House
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,470
    edited November 2015

    After the events of yesterday, is the seat Hayes and Harlington?

    no.

    Because despite unsettling weather in the east yesterday, hurricanes hardly ever happen there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,371
    edited November 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    If UKIP can get close in Oldham, then they can get close anywhere in the north I reckon (Except Westmorland maybe)

    Excluding Merseyside and inner city seats with large EM populations.

    One by-election possibility next year is St Helens South & Whiston where the new MP is facing a trial for assault.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34923246
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    It will be very rare to not have a non-Labour safe seat by-election, they are the group with the oldest average age.

    On Syria, Cameron made a big political mistake:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 3m3 minutes ago
    Julian Lewis, Tory chairman of defence select cttee, sceptically says Cameron figure of 70k ground troops is 'a revelation to me'.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300

    Tim Farron gone down like a lead balloon in the House

    He reminds all of the people who forgot all about the Lib Dems just what a massive plonker he is
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    Tim Farron gone down like a lead balloon in the House

    He has nothing to contribute, so why would anyone pay attention to that little man?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,692
    The £23 billion windfall that has arrived courtesy of the OBR implies that the extent of any Austerity required was significantly exaggerated throughout the last Parliament and that the electorate was misled – wilfully or otherwise – at the 2015 election. Surely that in itself should be an issue for Labour to make hay with?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I turned the debate off about 90secs into his contribution. He's got such a whiny, self righteous student manner.

    I thought Angus Robertson did a good stint - he came across as an adult with a heavy weight on his shoulders.

    Tim Farron gone down like a lead balloon in the House

  • There could also be a by election. If she's found guilty her position could be untenable even if she doesn't receive a custodial sentence of more than 12 months.

    Labour MP Marie Rimmer faces trial over alleged 'referendum assault'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34923246
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,371
    Coventry NW would be a good chance for the Tories to make a gain from Labour IMO. The sort of seat where Labour could lose votes to UKIP with the Tories holding steady.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033

    There could also be a by election. If she's found guilty her position could be untenable even if she doesn't receive a custodial sentence of more than 12 months.

    Labour MP Marie Rimmer faces trial over alleged 'referendum assault'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34923246

    Pile on UKIP for that one methinks.
  • justin124 said:

    The £23 billion windfall that has arrived courtesy of the OBR implies that the extent of any Austerity required was significantly exaggerated throughout the last Parliament and that the electorate was misled – wilfully or otherwise – at the 2015 election. Surely that in itself should be an issue for Labour to make hay with?

    You mean the economy performing well under the conservatives is good news for labour?
    Its because the economy has been sustained rather than crucified because of excess austerity (as implied by labour) that it has been able to continue growing.
  • I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    I used to know Geoffrey quite well years ago and can imagine he's got a significant personal vote as he's so charming. I've never seen him out of *can I count on your vote* mode.

    He's also a businessman.
    AndyJS said:

    Coventry NW would be a good chance for the Tories to make a gain from Labour IMO. The sort of seat where Labour could lose votes to UKIP with the Tories holding steady.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    There could also be a by election. If she's found guilty her position could be untenable even if she doesn't receive a custodial sentence of more than 12 months.

    Labour MP Marie Rimmer faces trial over alleged 'referendum assault'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34923246

    Everyone supports her on that and no one but the SNP would demand a resignation for kicking an obnoxious YES campaigner in the balls.
    She's safe no matter what the verdict.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    Coventry NW would be a fascinating three way marginal.
  • Great response by Nadin Dorries in support of David Cameron
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015
    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    If Labour manage to get their act into gear by 2020, an Osborne lead Tory party will have a fight on it's hands to stay in office. He's wound up a lot of natural Conservative voters.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    When did HMG last win a by-election from the Opposition?
    Pulpstar said:

    Coventry NW would be a fascinating three way marginal.

  • Nigel Dodds commends the Prime Minister on his statement
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,386
    edited November 2015

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,775
    watford30 said:

    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    Or calm over inflated market?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,371
    edited November 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Coventry NW would be a fascinating three way marginal.

    There was a by-election there in 1976 that the Tories hoped to win at which Geoffrey Robinson was first elected.

    Video footage:
    http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/watch-unseen-footage-coventry-north-9710037
  • 1982, Mitcham & Morden. But that was in the context of a hopelessly left-wing Labour Party and an insurgent third party splitting the vote.

    Oh.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitcham_and_Morden_by-election,_1982
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

    1982, Mitcham & Morden. But that was in the context of a hopelessly left-wing Labour Party and an insurgent third party splitting the vote.

    Oh.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitcham_and_Morden_by-election,_1982

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,299
    On-topic:

    Intriguing. A 'innocuous personal reason' might mean something personally serious. I hope he or she is well.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,371
    edited November 2015

    When did HMG last win a by-election from the Opposition?

    Pulpstar said:

    Coventry NW would be a fascinating three way marginal.

    The last Tory gain from Labour while the Tories were in office that didn't involve defections or other unusual circumstances (such as Tony Benn being disqualified) was back in 1960:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighouse_and_Spenborough_by-election,_1960
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,386

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    Apparently Khan said he wouldn't stand down as Tooting MP, even if he wins.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,371

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I think the Greens could do well in a Richmond Park by-election at the expense of the LDs.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Wow. 55yrs ago...
    AndyJS said:

    When did HMG last win a by-election from the Opposition?

    Pulpstar said:

    Coventry NW would be a fascinating three way marginal.

    The last Tory gain from Labour while the Tories were in office that didn't involve defections or other unusual circumstances (such as Tony Benn being disqualified) was back in 1960:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighouse_and_Spenborough_by-election,_1960
  • Artist said:

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    Apparently Khan said he wouldn't stand down as Tooting MP, even if he wins.
    He's changed his mind on that.

    Before: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/sadiq-khan-will-serve-full-term-mp-tooting-if-he-becomes-mayor-london

    After: http://labourlist.org/2015/09/sadiq-khan-wins-race-to-be-labours-candidate-for-london-mayor/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    edited November 2015
    watford30 said:

    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    If Labour manage to get their act into gear by 2020, an Osborne lead Tory party will have a fight on it's hands to stay in office. He's wound up a lot of natural Conservative voters.

    Rivers are being cried for them in the comments section. Rivers of tears. Seas, oceans, even.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 64,263
    edited November 2015

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour hold.

    Is in London after all.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    watford30 said:

    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    If Labour manage to get their act into gear by 2020, an Osborne lead Tory party will have a fight on it's hands to stay in office. He's wound up a lot of natural Conservative voters.

    Who are the BTL lot going to vote for ?

    No one? And the Kippers.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Interestingly, the current Mitcham and Morden Labour MP was one of those that went into writing to criticise Andrew Fisher, Corbyn-ista henchman. She now fears a Momentum surge to oust her. But she is powerful and would win a by-election as an Independent Labour candidate. The fall out would be fun though. Khan isn't that strong in Tooting. The Tory candidate is hard working and intelligent.
  • I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    watford30 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    watford30 said:

    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    If Labour manage to get their act into gear by 2020, an Osborne lead Tory party will have a fight on it's hands to stay in office. He's wound up a lot of natural Conservative voters.

    Who are the BTL lot going to vote for ?

    No one?
    If Osborne can get generation rent onboard, even Fortress London could be in Tory sights. No mileage in piling up yet more votes in Surrey.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    LOL. Really?

    You have to pay a bit more for what's considered a guaranteed asset rise, and you're going to take your ball home in a huff?
    watford30 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    watford30 said:

    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    If Labour manage to get their act into gear by 2020, an Osborne lead Tory party will have a fight on it's hands to stay in office. He's wound up a lot of natural Conservative voters.

    Who are the BTL lot going to vote for ?

    No one?
  • watford30 said:

    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    If Labour manage to get their act into gear by 2020, an Osborne lead Tory party will have a fight on it's hands to stay in office. He's wound up a lot of natural Conservative voters.

    It is not just big companies that have but to let empires of 15 or more homes, but that is massively unfair. That totally weights the "game" in favour of these bigger players / individuals and against an individual who are just trying to supplement their pension with a buy-to-let flat. Surely if anything it should be the other way around?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,899
    Are there any friends of Edward Michael Balls in the House who might want to bring him back rather than vacate a seat for Miliband Major?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @Torcuil: No sign of @AlexSalmond in the chamber though

    @AClarke1984: @Torcuil he is in Edinburgh, unveiling a portrait of himself. Not joking.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015

    watford30 said:

    I see there's a row brewing over Osborne's decision to help out his chums with large property companies.

    'What will fuel their anger is that large firms owning more than 15 properties are not expected to have to pay the higher charge.'

    www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html

    If Labour manage to get their act into gear by 2020, an Osborne lead Tory party will have a fight on it's hands to stay in office. He's wound up a lot of natural Conservative voters.

    It is not just big companies that have but to let empires of 15 or more homes, but that is massively unfair. That totally weights the "game" in favour of these bigger players / individuals and against an individual who are just trying to supplement their pension with a buy-to-let flat. Surely if anything it should be the other way around?
    Maybe it should. It's pretty obvious who's been whining the most in cosy 'chats with chums' at Number 11.

    Big business always wins with Osborne. (See large scale Tax Avoidance by corporations, and the advantages given to large consulting firms over contractors for further reference).
  • I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    How'd you price it up?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Balls had a few mares responding to Osborne - but he must be watching from behind the sofa right now.

    McMao was talking gibberish yesterday.
    dr_spyn said:

    Are there any friends of Edward Michael Balls in the House who might want to bring him back rather than vacate a seat for Miliband Major?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,570

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    I have friends in the Tooting Conservative Party, who tell me Dan may not be the candidate.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @NCPoliticsUK: YouGov (Trust to make right decisions on #Syria)

    Corbyn:
    Trust 21
    Don't Trust 68

    Putin:
    Trust 21
    Don't Trust 68
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    edited November 2015

    Balls had a few mares responding to Osborne - but he must be watching from behind the sofa right now.

    McMao was talking gibberish yesterday.

    dr_spyn said:

    Are there any friends of Edward Michael Balls in the House who might want to bring him back rather than vacate a seat for Miliband Major?

    We had some stories after the GE that is exactly what was going to happen, but a) you can't do that straight away and b) now the nut job fringe are in charge rather than Ms Spheroids, maybe staying at home with the kids is a more attractive option.
  • I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    How'd you price it up?
    At the moment, 5/6 each. But who knows what lunacy McDonnell & Corbyn will perpetrate before June?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,386
    edited November 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    I have friends in the Tooting Conservative Party, who tell me Dan may not be the candidate.
    Interesting. They certainly won't be reverting to the 2010 candidate.

    Of course I suspect this will all be a moot point, as Zac wins.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,899
    @plato_says : talking gibberish...5 across.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,371
    Richmond Park — reality check on the general election result:

    Con 58%
    LD 19%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Park_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Great response by Nadin Dorries in support of David Cameron

    Is it supporting Cameron to say she won't vote?
    http://www.trendingcentral.com/nadine-dorries-will-not-vote-on-syria-debate/
  • Great response by Nadin Dorries in support of David Cameron

    Is it supporting Cameron to say she won't vote?
    http://www.trendingcentral.com/nadine-dorries-will-not-vote-on-syria-debate/
    That's from 2013.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,692
    edited November 2015

    justin124 said:

    The £23 billion windfall that has arrived courtesy of the OBR implies that the extent of any Austerity required was significantly exaggerated throughout the last Parliament and that the electorate was misled – wilfully or otherwise – at the 2015 election. Surely that in itself should be an issue for Labour to make hay with?

    You mean the economy performing well under the conservatives is good news for labour?
    Its because the economy has been sustained rather than crucified because of excess austerity (as implied by labour) that it has been able to continue growing.
    No - but that the need for further Austerity was far less than Osborne was suggesting last May. £23 billion does not appear out of thin air in just a few months. Labour and other critics can now reasonably say that Osborne cannot be relied upon to tell the truth. 'Dodgy' Osborne might have a ring to it.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    OT For Times online readers - anyone else unable to see the Most Read stories? I've got a white box but can randomly click on invisible links. No word from their Tech Team.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @JamieRoss7: The SNP deny Salmond is missing Cameron's statement to unveil a portrait of himself. He's in Edinburgh for FMQs, they say.
  • I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    How'd you price it up?
    At the moment, 5/6 each. But who knows what lunacy McDonnell & Corbyn will perpetrate before June?
    Speaking to a Labour activist friend the other day, he had this doomsday scenario.

    After Labour are shellacked in London, Scotland, Wales and England next May, Corbyn decides the only reason Labour did so badly was because he wasn't sufficiently left wing enough and decides to move further to the left.
  • I've been looking at the age of MPs by party and it is quite interesting:

    Labour have 15 MPs over the age of 70 including 4 over the age of 80 (Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick and Flynn), while the Cons only have 8 MPs over 70 (Haselhurst is the oldest by some way at 78). Lab also has more MPs in their 60s (50 vs. 40 for the Cons). Unsurprisingly the SNP's MPs are the youngest with only 6 over 60.

    It suggests the Cons have been better at persuading some of the old guard to stand aside and reduces the probability of a by-election in a Con seat due to an MP passing away.

  • justin124 said:

    No - but that the need for further Austerity was far less than Osborne was suggesting last May. £23 billion does not appear out of thin air in just a few months. Labour and other critics can now reasonably say that Osborne cannot be relied upon to tell the truth. 'Dodgy' Osborne might have a ring to it.

    To be honest I don't think that even John McDonnell is so stupid as to try that idiotic line.

    If you don't understand how these forecasts are made, and can't read the OBR's explanation of what assumptions have changed, then it's probably best not to make a fool of yourself by commenting on the subject.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @faisalislam: ex shadow chancellor Chris Leslie asks PM to confirm that UNSC resolution provides backing for the action - that sounds like a Yes
  • I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    How'd you price it up?
    At the moment, 5/6 each. But who knows what lunacy McDonnell & Corbyn will perpetrate before June?
    Speaking to a Labour activist friend the other day, he had this doomsday scenario.

    After Labour are shellacked in London, Scotland, Wales and England next May, Corbyn decides the only reason Labour did so badly was because he wasn't sufficiently left wing enough and decides to move further to the left.
    Indeed the danger for Labour is if they 'Let Corbyn be Corbyn' to paraphase The West Wing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    edited November 2015

    justin124 said:

    No - but that the need for further Austerity was far less than Osborne was suggesting last May. £23 billion does not appear out of thin air in just a few months. Labour and other critics can now reasonably say that Osborne cannot be relied upon to tell the truth. 'Dodgy' Osborne might have a ring to it.

    To be honest I don't think that even John McDonnell is so stupid as to try that idiotic line.

    If you don't understand how these forecasts are made, and can't read the OBR's explanation of what assumptions have changed, then it's probably best not to make a fool of yourself by commenting on the subject.
    I don't know, Evan Davis on Newsnight last night was trying to get a conspiracy theory of OBR projections going. Whatever happened to those theories about why unemployment wasn't really falling I wonder?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12017887/david-cameron-syria-air-strikes-plan-live.html#update-20151126-1154
    PM: I have examined my conscience over air strikes

    Quote There's no part of me that wants to take part in any military action that i don't believe is 100 per cent necessary for our own safety and security. That's what this is about. [Referring] back to the Iraq vote, and I know that was a time of great difficulty for the House and the country and has become hugely controversial. But we must not let that hold us back from making correct and thought-through decisions when we are under such threat. And we are. Thant bomb in Paris - that could have been London.

    If they had their way it would be London. I can't stand here and say we're safe from all these threats. We are not. I can't stand here either and say that we will remove the threat through the action that we take. But do I stand here with advice behind me that taking action will degrade and reduce that threat over time, absolutely. And I've examined my conscience and that's what it is telling me.
  • This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2015
    @Big_G_NorthWales

    'Tim Farron gone down like a lead balloon in the House'


    Problem is that he comes across as a student activist (or the Andrex puppy as some people refer to him), Lamb wold have been taken more seriously.
  • This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    Finally...been pissing about with this decision for what 18 months?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    What will their parents and probation officers watch?

    This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @JournoStephen: Nicola Sturgeon asks why @kdugdalemsp is criticising her instead of the Tories. She understands how First Minister's Questions works, right?
  • It is not just big companies that have but to let empires of 15 or more homes, but that is massively unfair. That totally weights the "game" in favour of these bigger players / individuals and against an individual who are just trying to supplement their pension with a buy-to-let flat. Surely if anything it should be the other way around?

    No, I think a key goal is to encourage big providers to enter the market; currently there are very few. In principle pension funds would make excellent investors in rental property, as they need long-term, stable returns and are currently over-dependent on government bonds (very low returns) and to a lesser extent shares (volatile and risky). They would have the scale and organisational structures to be very good landlords, and could bring a of new investment to the market, thus making a significant contribution to improving housing supply. However, although there has been talk for quite a long time of pension funds entering this market, it hasn't happened on the scale which many people hoped for. It looks to me as though Osborne is having a serious go at making it more attractive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033

    This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    BBC3 is the not particularly good answer to E4/ITV/C5.

    BBC4 is the real peak Guardian channel, and more in line with what the BBC should be doing.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    In no universe can I image BBC3 having more than a tiny audience - it's so achingly Right-On mixed with lots of swearing and Guardian style documentaries about disabled, black, war veterans who are now pacifists, who'd never vote Tory.

    I'm not their target demographic, but I can zap myself back to my 18-25self quite easily. And I'd still roll my eyes at it.

    This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    Finally...been pissing about with this decision for what 18 months?
  • Balls had a few mares responding to Osborne - but he must be watching from behind the sofa right now.

    McMao was talking gibberish yesterday.

    dr_spyn said:

    Are there any friends of Edward Michael Balls in the House who might want to bring him back rather than vacate a seat for Miliband Major?

    Robinson - Coventry?

  • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12017887/david-cameron-syria-air-strikes-plan-live.html#update-20151126-1154

    PM: I have examined my conscience over air strikes

    Quote There's no part of me that wants to take part in any military action that i don't believe is 100 per cent necessary for our own safety and security. That's what this is about. [Referring] back to the Iraq vote, and I know that was a time of great difficulty for the House and the country and has become hugely controversial. But we must not let that hold us back from making correct and thought-through decisions when we are under such threat. And we are. Thant bomb in Paris - that could have been London.

    If they had their way it would be London. I can't stand here and say we're safe from all these threats. We are not. I can't stand here either and say that we will remove the threat through the action that we take. But do I stand here with advice behind me that taking action will degrade and reduce that threat over time, absolutely. And I've examined my conscience and that's what it is telling me.
    That could be Blair. Nauseating.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    How'd you price it up?
    I canvass a lot in Tooting. Khan's vote held up at GE but Corbyn is losing a few votes for him now. Dan Watkins is hard working and bright. If Khan wins Mayoral (Christ, I hope not) then Dan would be favourite. Labour don't have any other politician who has presence. For 2020, if Corbyn in charge, Dan Watkins will have a great chance. Also, if boundary changes stay as they are Tooting jettisons 2 labour wards (Furzedown and Graveney I think) for 2 Tory wards (Balham and Bedford). Tooting would be likely Tory win.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,692

    justin124 said:

    No - but that the need for further Austerity was far less than Osborne was suggesting last May. £23 billion does not appear out of thin air in just a few months. Labour and other critics can now reasonably say that Osborne cannot be relied upon to tell the truth. 'Dodgy' Osborne might have a ring to it.

    To be honest I don't think that even John McDonnell is so stupid as to try that idiotic line.

    If you don't understand how these forecasts are made, and can't read the OBR's explanation of what assumptions have changed, then it's probably best not to make a fool of yourself by commenting on the subject.
    These forecasts are based on modelling - but the fact that £23billion can suddenly appear out of thin air a mere four and a half months on from the July Budget shows how dodgy they inherently are - as is Osborne for relying on them!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    E4 have it about right IMO, enough rebellion/fun/being controversial. C5 for Big Brother and similar.
    Pulpstar said:

    This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    BBC3 is the not particularly good answer to E4/ITV/C5.

    BBC4 is the real peak Guardian channel, and more in line with what the BBC should be doing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @JohnRentoul: Cameron still going in the House of Commons. The Chamber still quite full. I think that means he is winning the argument.
  • The Labour front bench is pretty full at the moment, no repeat of the other day
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,383
    edited November 2015

    In no universe can I image BBC3 having more than a tiny audience - it's so achingly Right-On mixed with lots of swearing and Guardian style documentaries about disabled, black, war veterans who are now pacifists, who'd never vote Tory.

    I'm not their target demographic, but I can zap myself back to my 18-25self quite easily. And I'd still roll my eyes at it.

    This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    Finally...been pissing about with this decision for what 18 months?
    And the fact the "channel" is only on in the evening and is something like 80-90% repeats. In a world with iplayer, Netflix, Twitch, it is a totally outdated vanity project. With iPlayer, there is far less reasons to need to screen repeats of a show multiple times a week, and plenty of opportunity to road test new projects either on BBC2 or iPlayer.

    If content is good, people find it. In a world with twitter etc, when something is good news spreads.

    It is happening in the US already, more and more online only channels or shows, more original content will appear on YouTube, Twitch, Netflix, etc. The idea that the family sits down every night to watch the big moving picture box in the corner of the living room is total outdated idea. Its tablets, mobile, pc, laptop.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.

    I think the most interesting by election of 2016 would be a Richmond Park by election.

    Iff the Lib Dems could take that....

    I don't think they can. The Tories & Tooting, on the other hand... either way the Mayoral election is going to provide us with a nice betting postscript.
    I reckon Tooting should be a Labour held.

    Is in London after all.
    It's gentrifying rapidly. qv. Battersea in May - some people thought that would be close.

    Prices are up 6.69 per cent in the year to June, according to Knight Frank, and show little signs of tailing off just yet, given the changing demographic.

    The changes have been noted by local businessman Dan Watkins, who stood as the Conservative candidate for Tooting at the 2015 general election. He failed to defeat the incumbent, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, but Khan recently won his party’s nomination as London mayoral candidate for next summer’s election. If Khan wins, Watkins hopes to be elected in Tooting at the resulting by-election. This time, he thinks he may have a chance due to those demographic shifts.


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4473340-8952-11e5-90de-f44762bf9896.html
    How'd you price it up?
    At the moment, 5/6 each. But who knows what lunacy McDonnell & Corbyn will perpetrate before June?
    Speaking to a Labour activist friend the other day, he had this doomsday scenario.

    After Labour are shellacked in London, Scotland, Wales and England next May, Corbyn decides the only reason Labour did so badly was because he wasn't sufficiently left wing enough and decides to move further to the left.
    Never underestimate the number of Labour supporters who will hold their nose and vote for Corbyn's party. Both Tory and Labour have hard core of 170 seats they will never lose. I reckon worst case scenario for a Corbyn led party is 4.5 swing against. 43 Tory, 27 Labour. In London that would mean 37 V 37. That's still good for Labour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300

    The Labour front bench is pretty full at the moment, no repeat of the other day

    They are supporting Cameron, not Corbyn
  • This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    Is it going online? or no BBC3 content either?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033

    E4 have it about right IMO, enough rebellion/fun/being controversial. C5 for Big Brother and similar.

    Pulpstar said:

    This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    BBC3 is the not particularly good answer to E4/ITV/C5.

    BBC4 is the real peak Guardian channel, and more in line with what the BBC should be doing.
    BBC3: Young, trans and looking for love

    BBC4: Colour - The spectrum of science.

    Might watch that Docu actually.
  • This will get the lefties and luvvies all excited

    BBC3 to close in February

    Is it going online? or no BBC3 content either?
    Online
This discussion has been closed.