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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All this week’s local by-election results

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited November 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All this week’s local by-election results

Carnforth and Millhead (Con defence) on Lancaster
Result: Conservative 545 (55% +7%), Labour 320 (32% -3%), Green Party 52 (5% -12%), Liberal Democrat 38 (4%, no candidate in 2015), United Kingdom Indepdendence Party 37 (4%, no candidate in 2015)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 225 (23%) on a swing of 5% from Labour to Conservative

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Thanks Harry
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    The choosing time approaches for members of his Shadow Cabinet. The ship is sinking and no amount of dogged loyalty to the greater idea of the Labour party can change that. The question is whether they wish to sink with it. On Monday some will surely decide to abandon ship. There is no disgrace in that. On the contrary, dignity and self-respect leave them with little else to do.

    Granted, it is by no means obvious that there is a winning alternative to Corbyn. But his leadership is achieving the impossible: it makes you pine for Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham! Think on that.
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/death-of-a-political-party-jeremy-corbyn-has-killed-labour/
  • Thanks Harry

    Seconded - the threads are great, and local by-elections more interesting than ever (YMMV) in this Parliament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    FPT
    kle4 said:

    Wanderer said:

    @RobbieTravers · 15m15 minutes ago
    Labour source just told me #OldhamWest canvas returns are dreadful. A minimum of 50% of Labour voters in May will not vote Labour next week.

    So the question is what they will do instead. If they just abstain I think it's still a Labour hold.
    Indeed - Labour are sinking at present, but the Tories and LDs don't appear to be gaining (we shall see about UKIP), so even if they sink a long way they retain buckets of seats, and a slight recovery from now, say under a new leader, sees them hold their ground even. I know it's been a tough week and months for them, but their underlying position retains a lot of promise all the same.
    I should make clear the promise I mentioned above is if they fget their sh*t together.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    edited November 2015
    Troubling for the LDs in Wiltshire - strong results despite vote drop in 2013, but a couple of lost by-elections and multipe defections to Tories and Independents since then. With Labour nowhere in the county outside of Salisbury, this is the sort of place they need to rebuild in so they can challenge for parliamentary seats like Chippenham (the others are unattainable, bar the Swindon ones for Labour one day).

    In their defence in this one there was no UKIP candidate when there was in 2013.
  • kle4 said:

    even if they sink a long way they retain buckets of seats

    Just like Scottish Labour?

    Labour are in danger of being SNP'd by UKIP in 2020, and reduced to about 50 seats. It's not odds-on, though. Yet.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited November 2015
    Scott_P said:

    The choosing time approaches for members of his Shadow Cabinet. The ship is sinking and no amount of dogged loyalty to the greater idea of the Labour party can change that. The question is whether they wish to sink with it. On Monday some will surely decide to abandon ship. There is no disgrace in that. On the contrary, dignity and self-respect leave them with little else to do.

    Granted, it is by no means obvious that there is a winning alternative to Corbyn. But his leadership is achieving the impossible: it makes you pine for Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham! Think on that.
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/death-of-a-political-party-jeremy-corbyn-has-killed-labour/

    Come on Oldies. 'Vote Burnham! Free vase and all the flower water you can drink'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,798
    In times like these I wonder if Cameron regrets the fixed term parliament act. How much better to contrive to lose a vote of confidence and then ask the people to return the government with a meaningful majority?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @MichaelLCrick: Corbyn ally reckons Shadow Cabinet are 25-5 against him on Syria, & PLP will go 2-1 agst him too. Others in Corbyn camp think PLP more 50-50
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300

    In times like these I wonder if Cameron regrets the fixed term parliament act. How much better to contrive to lose a vote of confidence and then ask the people to return the government with a meaningful majority?

    He could make the Syria vote a confidence motion could he not?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,066

    In times like these I wonder if Cameron regrets the fixed term parliament act. How much better to contrive to lose a vote of confidence and then ask the people to return the government with a meaningful majority?

    No reason why they can't remove it (maybe the Lords?!!!). I'd have thought it would be a very sensible thing to get rid of.
  • Kyle Edmund racing into a 3-0 lead. Andy Murray should be shortening for SPOTY.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    Billy Hills still have some 11-4 left on UKIP.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Thanks @HarryHayfield - great, informative stuff.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Reports last night were 15 against 5 pro IIRC
    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelLCrick: Corbyn ally reckons Shadow Cabinet are 25-5 against him on Syria, & PLP will go 2-1 agst him too. Others in Corbyn camp think PLP more 50-50

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    We all know about Erdogan, even Obama, Cameron, Merkel, the EU lords and the NATO bigwigs; yet they all lick his arse.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Scott_P said:

    The choosing time approaches for members of his Shadow Cabinet. The ship is sinking and no amount of dogged loyalty to the greater idea of the Labour party can change that. The question is whether they wish to sink with it. On Monday some will surely decide to abandon ship. There is no disgrace in that. On the contrary, dignity and self-respect leave them with little else to do.

    Granted, it is by no means obvious that there is a winning alternative to Corbyn. But his leadership is achieving the impossible: it makes you pine for Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham! Think on that.
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/death-of-a-political-party-jeremy-corbyn-has-killed-labour/

    Well don't blame me!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,626
    tlg86 said:

    In times like these I wonder if Cameron regrets the fixed term parliament act. How much better to contrive to lose a vote of confidence and then ask the people to return the government with a meaningful majority?

    No reason why they can't remove it (maybe the Lords?!!!). I'd have thought it would be a very sensible thing to get rid of.
    I have no problem with it, but given they could not outright say it was done to ensure the coalition lasted 5 years, that is for political purposes, he would have to explain why the reasons he gave for passing it were bunkum. More trouble than it is worth - if the Tories are right they will win easily in 2020 anyway, and an opposition in disarray would make their majority seem better than it is.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Thanks Harry

    Seconded - the threads are great, and local by-elections more interesting than ever (YMMV) in this Parliament.
    Thirded. It's very useful to have this weekly monitor of local by-elections.
  • tlg86 said:

    In times like these I wonder if Cameron regrets the fixed term parliament act. How much better to contrive to lose a vote of confidence and then ask the people to return the government with a meaningful majority?

    No reason why they can't remove it (maybe the Lords?!!!). I'd have thought it would be a very sensible thing to get rid of.
    I wonder how back-bench Tory MPs would feel about it. On the one hand it helps the PM call an election at the optimal time to keep them in their jobs, but on the other it allows him to gamble their jobs for the chance of a bigger majority.

    Also aside from whether they'll win or lose, I'd imagine MPs of all parties appreciate the ability to plan ahead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Dramatic shifts in the Selston Parish and Llais Gwynedd and Independent votes, some village halls must have been tense!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @euanmccolm: looking for stocking-fillers for the kids. anyone know where diane abbott got her dictator top trumps?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    edited November 2015

    Kyle Edmund racing into a 3-0 lead. Andy Murray should be shortening for SPOTY.

    William Hills are 5-1, 1/5 the odds Each Way on him. 3 places.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited November 2015
    Any Labour resignations yet? Arf, Arf. :wink:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @TimPBouverie: "Because we have a leader who can't lead we have decided not to take a position." Labour MP on prospect of free vote on Syria #c4news
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited November 2015
    I was going to say that there’s a fresh episode of this tragi-comedy everyday but, actually, they come along more frequently than that. It’s like bingeing on a box set of political incompetence. Mao. The IRA. The 7/7 suicide bombers. Who dares predict what happens next? Nothing is too improbable to be realistic now...

    Matters have reached such a state that the leader of the Labour party feels unable to campaign in a by-election in which his party is defending a 15,000 majority won just six months ago. His presence in Oldham – Oldham! – can only make things worse for Labour.
    Scott_P said:

    The choosing time approaches for members of his Shadow Cabinet. The ship is sinking and no amount of dogged loyalty to the greater idea of the Labour party can change that. The question is whether they wish to sink with it. On Monday some will surely decide to abandon ship. There is no disgrace in that. On the contrary, dignity and self-respect leave them with little else to do.

    Granted, it is by no means obvious that there is a winning alternative to Corbyn. But his leadership is achieving the impossible: it makes you pine for Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham! Think on that.
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/death-of-a-political-party-jeremy-corbyn-has-killed-labour/

  • Pulpstar said:

    Kyle Edmund racing into a 3-0 lead. Andy Murray should be shortening for SPOTY.

    William Hills are 5-1, 1/5 the odds Each Way on him. 3 places.
    Two arbs on one thread.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542
    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic shifts in the Selston Parish and Llais Gwynedd and Independent votes, some village halls must have been tense!

    The turnout for Selston looks amazingly high. 3000+ people turning out for a by-election at council level is incredible
  • In times like these I wonder if Cameron regrets the fixed term parliament act. How much better to contrive to lose a vote of confidence and then ask the people to return the government with a meaningful majority?

    If he contrived to lose a vote of confidence in the current parliament, there'd be an election anyway: no-one else could form a government.

    The problem is more the politics. How do you explain to the electorate during the two weeks it'd take to prove that no-one else commands the House's confidence that you're not just using the public to your own ends?
  • MikeK said:

    We all know about Erdogan, even Obama, Cameron, Merkel, the EU lords and the NATO bigwigs; yet they all lick his arse.
    twitter.com/nufcno1fan/status/670214428072243201

    Why not save yourself time and just keep reposting 'I hate all Muslims, vote UKIP' ??
  • kle4 said:

    even if they sink a long way they retain buckets of seats

    Just like Scottish Labour?

    Labour are in danger of being SNP'd by UKIP in 2020, and reduced to about 50 seats. It's not odds-on, though. Yet.
    One market we really could do with is number of seats won by party at the next GE. I had a quick look at lunchtime and apart from a LD over/under one, I couldn't see any.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645
    Scott_P said:

    The choosing time approaches for members of his Shadow Cabinet. The ship is sinking and no amount of dogged loyalty to the greater idea of the Labour party can change that. The question is whether they wish to sink with it. On Monday some will surely decide to abandon ship. There is no disgrace in that. On the contrary, dignity and self-respect leave them with little else to do.

    Granted, it is by no means obvious that there is a winning alternative to Corbyn. But his leadership is achieving the impossible: it makes you pine for Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham! Think on that.
    http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/death-of-a-political-party-jeremy-corbyn-has-killed-labour/

    Great line that 'the path of righteousness is not for everyone, including some Labour MPs and they like the British people must be replaced'
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @PeterMannionMP: Momentum Corbynistas busy themselves with destabilising Labour MPs and holding Twitterstorms. Ordinary Labour ppl are out in Oldham drizzle.
  • Scott_P said:

    @TimPBouverie: "Because we have a leader who can't lead we have decided not to take a position." Labour MP on prospect of free vote on Syria #c4news

    If so, that = Cam gets his way. Lab in favour greatly exceeds Tory rebels even if SNP solid against.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,645

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic shifts in the Selston Parish and Llais Gwynedd and Independent votes, some village halls must have been tense!

    The turnout for Selston looks amazingly high. 3000+ people turning out for a by-election at council level is incredible
    Clearly must be a lot of tension over organising the Christmas Fayre!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033
    Lib Dem votes in those by-elections:

    38
    114
    262
    230
    97
    7
  • Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem votes in those by-elections:

    38
    114
    262
    230
    97
    7

    Add them together for their Oldham vote?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    7? :lol:
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem votes in those by-elections:

    38
    114
    262
    230
    97
    7

  • MikeK said:

    Any Labour resignations yet? Arf, Arf. :wink:

    Think you may have to wait until Monday now. Weekend papers will be a sight to see though.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    We all know about Erdogan, even Obama, Cameron, Merkel, the EU lords and the NATO bigwigs; yet they all lick his arse.
    twitter.com/nufcno1fan/status/670214428072243201

    Why not save yourself time and just keep reposting 'I hate all Muslims, vote UKIP' ??
    I don't hate muslims, you are libelling me, #flightpath. What I hate is an Islam that supports maniacal Islamists. Perhaps you're a Daesh supporter?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    MikeK said:

    Any Labour resignations yet? Arf, Arf. :wink:

    Think you may have to wait until Monday now. Weekend papers will be a sight to see though.
    A weekend when the Momentum types will be putting as much pressure as they can on Labour MPs

    This is going to get bloody
  • MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    We all know about Erdogan, even Obama, Cameron, Merkel, the EU lords and the NATO bigwigs; yet they all lick his arse.
    twitter.com/nufcno1fan/status/670214428072243201

    Why not save yourself time and just keep reposting 'I hate all Muslims, vote UKIP' ??
    I don't hate muslims, you are libelling me, #flightpath. What I hate is an Islam that supports maniacal Islamists. Perhaps you're a Daesh supporter?
    UKIP are peddling racism in the run up to the by election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,300
    @BBCLouise: Labour MP for Hove @peterkyle says it doesn't matter about letter from leader, he backs action in Syria - more @bbcsoutheast at 1330
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,033

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dem votes in those by-elections:

    38
    114
    262
    230
    97
    7

    Add them together for their Oldham vote?
    That'll be about right I think, yep.
  • New Thread New Thread

  • MikeK said:

    Any Labour resignations yet? Arf, Arf. :wink:

    Think you may have to wait until Monday now. Weekend papers will be a sight to see though.
    A weekend when the Momentum types will be putting as much pressure as they can on Labour MPs

    This is going to get bloody
    Might be some easy money to be had on BetFair's "Corbyn to go before next GE" market. Currently 1.2 with £75 on the table.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    We all know about Erdogan, even Obama, Cameron, Merkel, the EU lords and the NATO bigwigs; yet they all lick his arse.
    twitter.com/nufcno1fan/status/670214428072243201

    Why not save yourself time and just keep reposting 'I hate all Muslims, vote UKIP' ??
    I don't hate muslims, you are libelling me, #flightpath. What I hate is an Islam that supports maniacal Islamists. Perhaps you're a Daesh supporter?
    UKIP are peddling racism in the run up to the by election.
    You are pitiful.
  • MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    We all know about Erdogan, even Obama, Cameron, Merkel, the EU lords and the NATO bigwigs; yet they all lick his arse.
    twitter.com/nufcno1fan/status/670214428072243201

    Why not save yourself time and just keep reposting 'I hate all Muslims, vote UKIP' ??
    I don't hate muslims, you are libelling me, #flightpath. What I hate is an Islam that supports maniacal Islamists. Perhaps you're a Daesh supporter?
    UKIP are peddling racism in the run up to the by election.
    You are pitiful.
    No you are for endlessly peddling UKIP twitters.
  • MikeK said:

    Any Labour resignations yet? Arf, Arf. :wink:

    Think you may have to wait until Monday now. Weekend papers will be a sight to see though.
    A weekend when the Momentum types will be putting as much pressure as they can on Labour MPs

    This is going to get bloody
    Might be some easy money to be had on BetFair's "Corbyn to go before next GE" market. Currently 1.2 with £75 on the table.
    Basically a less risky/lower return than saying he's going to go soon... if he does go in 2019 having your money tied up isn't ideal so I assume you'd sell out at some point.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,040
    One of our new "allies" in Syria - Jaysh Al-Islam - appears to be an offshoot of Al Queda:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam

    As far as I can tell this bunch appear to be just as bad as ISIS, their only redeeming feature is they're on our side (for now). Some recent coverage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3145562/Rival-Syrian-terror-group-turns-tables-ISIS-fighters-releasing-slick-execution-video-executing-jihadis-dressed-orange-jumpsuits.html

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/11/01/Monitor-Syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-as-human-shields-.html
This discussion has been closed.