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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited August 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won’t not serve a full term

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 7,972
    First
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,202
    Assuming the Dems get the House but not the Senate, it might be worth thinking about Republican senators who might vote to impeach. The key is that they're going to risk getting primaried, so you're limited to people who won't be running again. If McCain makes it until then he might be one - any others?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406

    Assuming the Dems get the House but not the Senate, it might be worth thinking about Republican senators who might vote to impeach. The key is that they're going to risk getting primaried, so you're limited to people who won't be running again. If McCain makes it until then he might be one - any others?

    Collins and Murkowski for a start:
    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/27/obamacare-repeal-republicans-status-241025

    Impeachment really depends on the Mueller investigation coming up with something damning, I think. My gut feeling is the odds are just about right for now - it's entirely possible that Trump will go, but not yet overwhelmingly likely.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,146
    edited August 4
    Grand jury called for Trump investigation!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40820863

    This is all moving rather faster than I had thought it would...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,146
    Trump currently 9.2 to go this year. Worth it as a trading bet I think - I would expect that to come in a bit once this grand jury news hits...
  • Richard_HRichard_H Posts: 40
    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454
    Morning Mike

    " As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won’t not serve a full term"

    Shouldn't that be 'will not' or 'won't?'
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,739
    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 8,584
    Most of the economic indicators in the US are reasonable, so if the Republiocan candidates can distinguish themselves from too close an association with Trump’s lunancies, then they’ll probably do OK.
    As others have posted, Trump’s fights with the media, while fascinating for the interested, are of less importance to those outside.
    I fear that caution on Dem prospects is indicated.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 224

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 3,925
    ydoethur said:

    Morning Mike

    " As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won’t not serve a full term"

    Shouldn't that be 'will not' or 'won't?'

    Thanks for that.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,492
    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    I don't know. In Plato's absence, you could see what the Dilbert cartoonist, Scott Adams, is saying. Adams has long been proclaiming that everything Trump does is a masterstroke to confound his enemies. Maybe he is right.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,739
    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    I don't know. In Plato's absence, you could see what the Dilbert cartoonist, Scott Adams, is saying. Adams has long been proclaiming that everything Trump does is a masterstroke to confound his enemies. Maybe he is right.
    Is he also advising David Davis and Michel Barnier?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 3,919
    Nate Silver on 538 has indicated in the past that approval ratings below 40% are dangerously low for any President. Nate's daily chart currently has him on 37%, so that's getting very dangerous. I should say 35% would be critical. My own guess, on which I have bet, is that he will go before the end of his term. I would say that's about a 4/6 shot, so still decent value to be had on Betfair.

    Exactly when he would go is more difficult to judge, but he's such a mercurial and unpredictable character that anything from tomorrow to never is perfectly plausible. The 9.2 on Betfair for him to go this year is tempting and I'm on to small stakes.

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 37,194
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Punter, some way from Manchester myself but for what it's worth it's currently overcast. Looks like showers rather than tipping it down.

    Also, is 'layed' the proper spelling (like the odd-looking 'bettor') or is it 'laid'?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 3,919
    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    Four full days play is generally enough for a result but in English conditions with two vulnerable batting line-ups I should say three and a half would do. Sounds like they should get that, no?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406
    edited August 4
    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 8,584

    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
    Eastbourne now has a significant student population.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    Four full days play is generally enough for a result but in English conditions with two vulnerable batting line-ups I should say three and a half would do. Sounds like they should get that, no?
    Don't know. There isn't any rain here at the moment but that can change. Equally it was fine last night when rain was predicted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406
    rkrkrk said:

    Grand jury called for Trump investigation!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40820863

    This is all moving rather faster than I had thought it would...

    A grand jury doesn't imply that things are moving fast at all - typically they are empanelled at the start of a criminal investigation - rather it's confirmation that Mueller is pursuing criminal charges (against someone, not necessarily Trump).

    I too have a little cash on Trump leaving this year - trading bet only.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 30,811
    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,146
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Grand jury called for Trump investigation!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40820863

    This is all moving rather faster than I had thought it would...

    A grand jury doesn't imply that things are moving fast at all - typically they are empanelled at the start of a criminal investigation - rather it's confirmation that Mueller is pursuing criminal charges (against someone, not necessarily Trump).

    I too have a little cash on Trump leaving this year - trading bet only.
    Ah okay thanks for clarification.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 3,919
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 21,220
    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Grand jury called for Trump investigation!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40820863

    This is all moving rather faster than I had thought it would...

    A grand jury doesn't imply that things are moving fast at all - typically they are empanelled at the start of a criminal investigation - rather it's confirmation that Mueller is pursuing criminal charges (against someone, not necessarily Trump).

    I too have a little cash on Trump leaving this year - trading bet only.
    Ah okay thanks for clarification.
    There's a good article at Politico, including the 'ham sandwich' quote
    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/03/what-is-a-grand-jury-trump-russia-mueller-investigation-215458?lo=ap_d1

    What we do know is that there is a very capable and experienced team of prosecutors quite determined to take this investigation as far as they can. If any of the Trump periphery are vulnerable to criminal charges (Manafort or Flynn are possibilities), then there is a strong possibility they will squeal.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 3,919

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Punter, some way from Manchester myself but for what it's worth it's currently overcast. Looks like showers rather than tipping it down.

    Also, is 'layed' the proper spelling (like the odd-looking 'bettor') or is it 'laid'?

    Thanks Morris.

    I'm not sure there is a proper spelling but I prefer layed in order to stress the betting sense. I'll change if it bothers people.

    Not sure about bettor. Again it makes sense to distinguish the betting meaning but the word looks and sounds ugly to me, so I'll need a bit more persuasion on that one. I think in practice I use 'punters' to avoid the ugly 'bettors' and the possibly confusing 'betters'.

    What do you prefer?
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    This place is getting worse, to call Trump incompetent is a widely held opinion, to call him lazy or a slacker is plain nonsense.

    For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 21,220

    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
    Eastbourne now has a significant student population.
    Pretty much everywhere has a big student population nowadays, it is why student debt is such an enormous issue, and total sum.

    Not many students in Worthing voting in August methinks. Something else is going on when solid blue Worthing and Purple Margate are going red.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    Except he has successfully nominated judges to the Federal bench at a far greater rate than Obama - which is likely to be his most enduring and malign legacy.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 21,220

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    This place is getting worse, to call Trump incompetent is a widely held opinion, to call him lazy or a slacker is plain nonsense.

    For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
    Did you read the Newsweek article?

    I believe it comes to 35 golfing days, 20% of his days as president.

    When you add in the 5 hours of TV each day, it doesn't leave much work time, which is probably a good thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406
    edited August 4

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Punter, some way from Manchester myself but for what it's worth it's currently overcast. Looks like showers rather than tipping it down.

    Also, is 'layed' the proper spelling (like the odd-looking 'bettor') or is it 'laid'?

    Thanks Morris.

    I'm not sure there is a proper spelling but I prefer layed in order to stress the betting sense. I'll change if it bothers people.

    Not sure about bettor. Again it makes sense to distinguish the betting meaning but the word looks and sounds ugly to me, so I'll need a bit more persuasion on that one. I think in practice I use 'punters' to avoid the ugly 'bettors' and the possibly confusing 'betters'.

    What do you prefer?

    I don't know - Peter the Better must have its attractions ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,112
    I don't think he'll go voluntarily - far too much ego. And I can't see the advantage for GOP ~Senators to vote to convict - by the time it comes round, he'll be up for re-election anyway. The exception would be a real smoking gun - proof that he's in the pay of Moscow or something - but I doubt if that exists. People are now used to anything less.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,004

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    This place is getting worse, to call Trump incompetent is a widely held opinion, to call him lazy or a slacker is plain nonsense.

    For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
    Did you read the Newsweek article?

    I believe it comes to 35 golfing days, 20% of his days as president.

    When you add in the 5 hours of TV each day, it doesn't leave much work time, which is probably a good thing.
    Plus twitter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454
    edited August 4

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454

    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
    Eastbourne now has a significant student population.
    Pretty much everywhere has a big student population nowadays, it is why student debt is such an enormous issue, and total sum.

    Not many students in Worthing voting in August methinks. Something else is going on when solid blue Worthing and Purple Margate are going red.
    Is there a chance Conservative voters might be on holiday? What was the turnout like?

    Bear in mind only the rich (who may live in Worthing) and families with children (who may not) go on holiday in August. Those who have to watch spending more carefully and are not tied to school holidays prefer September and October.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 11,176

    I don't think he'll go voluntarily - far too much ego. And I can't see the advantage for GOP ~Senators to vote to convict - by the time it comes round, he'll be up for re-election anyway. The exception would be a real smoking gun - proof that he's in the pay of Moscow or something - but I doubt if that exists. People are now used to anything less.

    Nobody will be paying any attention to whether or not he is impeached once a war starts with NK.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    This place is getting worse, to call Trump incompetent is a widely held opinion, to call him lazy or a slacker is plain nonsense.

    For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
    Did you read the Newsweek article?

    I believe it comes to 35 golfing days, 20% of his days as president.

    When you add in the 5 hours of TV each day, it doesn't leave much work time, which is probably a good thing.
    "He has visited a golf club 40 times since taking office in January,"

    A round of golf, assuming he plays 18, takes 3-4 hours. How on earth does that equate to 35 golfing days?

    You simply make things up to suit your agenda.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
    Bit harsh on Root who averages 53 in tests
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 21,220
    ydoethur said:

    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
    Eastbourne now has a significant student population.
    Pretty much everywhere has a big student population nowadays, it is why student debt is such an enormous issue, and total sum.

    Not many students in Worthing voting in August methinks. Something else is going on when solid blue Worthing and Purple Margate are going red.
    Is there a chance Conservative voters might be on holiday? What was the turnout like?

    Bear in mind only the rich (who may live in Worthing) and families with children (who may not) go on holiday in August. Those who have to watch spending more carefully and are not tied to school holidays prefer September and October.
    Possibly, but there is more than an insignificant chance of a Labour landslide next GE. May cannot recover,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454

    ydoethur said:

    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
    Eastbourne now has a significant student population.
    Pretty much everywhere has a big student population nowadays, it is why student debt is such an enormous issue, and total sum.

    Not many students in Worthing voting in August methinks. Something else is going on when solid blue Worthing and Purple Margate are going red.
    Is there a chance Conservative voters might be on holiday? What was the turnout like?

    Bear in mind only the rich (who may live in Worthing) and families with children (who may not) go on holiday in August. Those who have to watch spending more carefully and are not tied to school holidays prefer September and October.
    Possibly, but there is more than an insignificant chance of a Labour landslide next GE. May cannot recover,
    Only if they ditch Corbyn. For all his improvement he's still a drag on Labour. If somebody bright and experienced were leading them I might agree with you.

    Also remember a very small swing to the Conservatives would deliver them a comfortable majority. Although much has been made of Labour gains in the south, what was much less noticed was how many formerly safe seats in the north, like Newcastle under Lyme, have become very marginal.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,112
    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,720
    Good by-election results in the locals for Labour.Labour needs to engage these end-of-the-line coastal towns all around Britain and offer economic regeneration programmes for these neglected areas,especially as Gove has now reneged on "control" of British fishing waters which will now remain under EU law.
    The Tories have found £1 billion for Ulster.Where's the cash for Margate and Worthing?
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 21,220

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    This place is getting worse, to call Trump incompetent is a widely held opinion, to call him lazy or a slacker is plain nonsense.

    For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
    Did you read the Newsweek article?

    I believe it comes to 35 golfing days, 20% of his days as president.

    When you add in the 5 hours of TV each day, it doesn't leave much work time, which is probably a good thing.
    "He has visited a golf club 40 times since taking office in January,"

    A round of golf, assuming he plays 18, takes 3-4 hours. How on earth does that equate to 35 golfing days?

    You simply make things up to suit your agenda.
    He plays in Key Largo and New Jersey, both involving significant travel, and is shortly to recuperate with a 17 day golfing holiday.

    Feel free to counter with all his achievements from the first six months.

    Take a look at @NateSilver538's Tweet:

    At 1.07% per month linear decline his popularity crosses zero on the y axis in 36 months!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,112
    edited August 4
    ydoethur said:



    Is there a chance Conservative voters might be on holiday? What was the turnout like?

    Bear in mind only the rich (who may live in Worthing) and families with children (who may not) go on holiday in August. Those who have to watch spending more carefully and are not tied to school holidays prefer September and October.

    It's always a mistake to read too much into a few local by-elections, but also it's no longer true that there's a strong link between social class and voting preference. The evidence that Labour is starting to do well in the South is piling up, and it's getting beyond the point that it's just gaining ground in seats where it was too far behind to matter.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    This place is getting worse, to call Trump incompetent is a widely held opinion, to call him lazy or a slacker is plain nonsense.

    For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
    Did you read the Newsweek article?

    I believe it comes to 35 golfing days, 20% of his days as president.

    When you add in the 5 hours of TV each day, it doesn't leave much work time, which is probably a good thing.
    "He has visited a golf club 40 times since taking office in January,"

    A round of golf, assuming he plays 18, takes 3-4 hours. How on earth does that equate to 35 golfing days?

    You simply make things up to suit your agenda.
    He plays in Key Largo and New Jersey, both involving significant travel, and is shortly to recuperate with a 17 day golfing holiday.

    Feel free to counter with all his achievements from the first six months.

    Take a look at @NateSilver538's Tweet:

    At 1.07% per month linear decline his popularity crosses zero on the y axis in 36 months!
    I've just posted one of his "achievements", I'm interested in your reply.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 482
    edited August 4
    If you're interested in US politics and want a Dem point of view, can thoroughly recommend:

    https://getcrookedmedia.com/here-have-a-podcast-78ee56b5a323

    Former Obama White House insiders, partisan, sometimes very funny, informative about the realities of the US political process.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 16,461
    I agree with @NickPalmer - the route to an early bath looks too tortuous to justify these odds. A resignation is the most likely, perhaps on health grounds or "health grounds". But he seems not to be overtaxing himself so I'm not expecting that either.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
    Bit harsh on Root who averages 53 in tests
    Yes - and who has an absolutely shocking conversion rate. 29 50s and 12 hundreds is not good enough for a top batsman in the middle order. Compare with Cook (55 and 30) Williamson (25 and 17) or Smith (20 and 20).

    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954

    I agree with @NickPalmer - the route to an early bath looks too tortuous to justify these odds. A resignation is the most likely, perhaps on health grounds or "health grounds". But he seems not to be overtaxing himself so I'm not expecting that either.

    Yes, too many people projecting what they'd like to happen again. Egos as big as Trump's don't resign, it will take something enormous to finish him off.

    I'd suggest he's pretty good at delegation and covering his own backside.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
    Bit harsh on Root who averages 53 in tests
    Yes - and who has an absolutely shocking conversion rate. 29 50s and 12 hundreds is not good enough for a top batsman in the middle order. Compare with Cook (55 and 30) Williamson (25 and 17) or Smith (20 and 20).

    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
    With all due respect, that's utter guff.
    England's batting problem lies at two and three.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 9,877

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    what's that matrix? Lazy and industrious along the top, stupid and clever along the side - the most dangerous is stupid and industrious, the best is lazy and clever (not industrious and clever or you produce so many good ideas no one can keep up with them all..)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 2,406
    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 8,584
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
    Bit harsh on Root who averages 53 in tests
    Yes - and who has an absolutely shocking conversion rate. 29 50s and 12 hundreds is not good enough for a top batsman in the middle order. Compare with Cook (55 and 30) Williamson (25 and 17) or Smith (20 and 20).

    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
    With all due respect, that's utter guff.
    England's batting problem lies at two and three.
    Two maybe but not at three now! Essex rules!!!!!
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 1,843
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
    Bit harsh on Root who averages 53 in tests
    Yes - and who has an absolutely shocking conversion rate. 29 50s and 12 hundreds is not good enough for a top batsman in the middle order. Compare with Cook (55 and 30) Williamson (25 and 17) or Smith (20 and 20).

    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
    You are Geoffrey Boycott and I claim my £5
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    <
    Yes - and who has an absolutely shocking conversion rate. 29 50s and 12 hundreds is not good enough for a top batsman in the middle order. Compare with Cook (55 and 30) Williamson (25 and 17) or Smith (20 and 20).

    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.

    With all due respect, that's utter guff.
    England's batting problem lies at two and three.
    Those are the figures. They do not lie. He is a very good batsman with a remarkable record who can nevertheless do better. A bit like a more productive Ian Bell.

    On your other point, in a normal side, would you not want your best batsman at 3? And wouldn't that be Root? England's greatest batsman would surely be Hammond, who spent most of his career at 3. Williamson and Smith both bat at three. Kohli doesn't but frankly I don't rate him as highly as those three, or as Pujara. That's who Root should be looking to emulate.

    Yet he doesn't want it and the management don't seem to want to push him. Why not? Temperament? Or his conversion rate? Or a mixture?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 12,861

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Interesting one. American politicians don't usually do that sort of thing, so I'd assume the Democrats are going to try and get a recall petition up and running ASAP.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 37,194
    Mr. Punter, sorry for the delay replying.

    I agree that 'bettor' is bit clunky. Punter, or gambler, looks and sounds better. Or the politically correct 'high risk, high return financial forecaster', of course.

    'Layed' doesn't bother me I was just curious, as the nun said to the hockey team.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 17,511
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    West Virginia has moved from safe Democratic to safe Republican very rapidly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454
    Blue_rog said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
    Bit harsh on Root who averages 53 in tests
    Yes - and who has an absolutely shocking conversion rate. 29 50s and 12 hundreds is not good enough for a top batsman in the middle order. Compare with Cook (55 and 30) Williamson (25 and 17) or Smith (20 and 20).

    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
    You are Geoffrey Boycott and I claim my £5
    Thing with Root is, when 'e gets gooing, miy grandmoother cud bat with 'im (she was a Yorkshirewoman too, by the way)!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 3,919

    Mr. Punter, sorry for the delay replying.

    I agree that 'bettor' is bit clunky. Punter, or gambler, looks and sounds better. Or the politically correct 'high risk, high return financial forecaster', of course.

    'Layed' doesn't bother me I was just curious, as the nun said to the hockey team.

    Lol! Then 'layed' it is!

    And 'high risk, high return financial forecaster' of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 12,861
    Blue_rog said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?

    If the weather here - admittedly at some distance from Manchester - is anything to go by, they should get three clear days. Tomorrow looks poor and Monday looks iffy.

    But unless both sides bat considerably better than they have so far, three overcast days should see a result.
    I'd be slightly anxious if I had money against the draw. Typical changeable English conditions, which could mean they get four and a half days play, or if unlucky, two and a half.
    There's no way these two teams could play for four and a half days without producing a result. They might even manage it in two and a half, so I'll hold my bets for a bit.
    What it boils down to is that the two sides have three proper Test batsmen between them - Cook, Amla and du Plessis - and they are all in wretched form right now.

    The rest of them don't really have the temperament for batting long in tough conditions, apart possibly from Elgar whose technique is not of the best. But even Joe Root isn't willing to really graft when things are tough (look at that dumb shot he played in the second Test). They all prefer to thrash the bowling and naturally surrender their wickets too easily.

    So naturally, they crack easily under even quite mild pressure.
    Bit harsh on Root who averages 53 in tests
    Yes - and who has an absolutely shocking conversion rate. 29 50s and 12 hundreds is not good enough for a top batsman in the middle order. Compare with Cook (55 and 30) Williamson (25 and 17) or Smith (20 and 20).

    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
    You are Geoffrey Boycott and I claim my £5
    I wonder if his fellow broadcasters can wind him up again? They did a bloody good job of it last week!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 21,220

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    This place is getting worse, to call Trump incompetent is a widely held opinion, to call him lazy or a slacker is plain nonsense.

    For clarification, how many times has he played golf in the last 6 months?
    Did you read the Newsweek article?

    I believe it comes to 35 golfing days, 20% of his days as president.

    When you add in the 5 hours of TV each day, it doesn't leave much work time, which is probably a good thing.
    "He has visited a golf club 40 times since taking office in January,"

    A round of golf, assuming he plays 18, takes 3-4 hours. How on earth does that equate to 35 golfing days?

    You simply make things up to suit your agenda.
    He plays in Key Largo and New Jersey, both involving significant travel, and is shortly to recuperate with a 17 day golfing holiday.

    Feel free to counter with all his achievements from the first six months.

    Take a look at @NateSilver538's Tweet:

    At 1.07% per month linear decline his popularity crosses zero on the y axis in 36 months!
    I've just posted one of his "achievements", I'm interested in your reply.
    Not sure that Trump had any role in that, apart from worsening Americas cultural divide. West Virginia is a sad and depressing place. John Denver got it wrong.

    It is interesting to have one Trumpite on PB, no matter how delusional though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 17,511
    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    Worthing was very good for Labour. Margate was winning back a ward they should never have lost.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 6,454
    edited August 4

    'Layed' doesn't bother me I was just curious, as the nun said to the hockey team.

    Since Mr Dancer has started the risqué jokes about nuns this morning:

    A young nun goes to her abbess and says, 'Reverend Mother, I am pregnant.'
    'Quick,' says the abbess, 'suck these five lemons.'
    'Will that help?' asks the nun.
    'No,' replied the abbess, 'but with luck it will wipe that stupid grin off your face.'

    With that, work beckons. I trust everyone has a productive morning.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,656
    Sandpit said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Interesting one. American politicians don't usually do that sort of thing, so I'd assume the Democrats are going to try and get a recall petition up and running ASAP.
    Reading about him, he was only recently a democrat, and is a former oil billionaire who has financial problems.

    Bit like Trump!
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954
    @foxinsox

    For the umpteenth time I can't stand the man, I'm simply pointing out the nonsense of your posts on here. As with the referendum, it is your view of Trump that is deluded - he was elected, get over it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 17,511
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
    I think there's a big realignment of voters going on across Western democracies. Some middle class voters realise they've been left wing all along, matched by working class voters realising they've been right wing all along.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 9,877
    edited August 4

    @foxinsox

    For the umpteenth time I can't stand the man, I'm simply pointing out the nonsense of your posts on here. As with the referendum, it is your view of Trump that is deluded - he was elected, get over it.

    Yep - and it's interesting to see the level of regret now displayed by the US voters over their decision to make Trump president.

    A similar linear percentage point decrease in support for Brexit, by contrast, would see an interesting next few years over here.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 3,919

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    On more serious matters, I have as usual layed the draw in the Test Match but am anxious about the weather reports. The BBC weather service, which is presumably cribbed from the Met Office, is notoriously inaccurate, Any locals got a bit of seaweed hanging out of the window?



    For why? Because although he's a very attacking batsman with a superb technique and the ability to bat long, he also throws it away needlessly when set (although in Smith's case playing in Australia probably also helps). That's why I say he's not a fully 'Test' batsman in the mould of Cook, and it's also one reason why England are prone to such spectacular collapses as the rest of the middle order take their tone from him.
    With all due respect, that's utter guff.
    England's batting problem lies at two and three.
    Two maybe but not at three now! Essex rules!!!!!
    Tom Westley has earned a run at three but there are two other Essex batsmen I would have picked ahead of him - Daniel Lawrence and Nick Browne. I'd have picked Buttler ahead of all three though.

    Bayliss apparently prefers Root at three, which makes you wonder what kind of authority he wields if the player doesn't start in the position the manager wants him. But then Bayliss doesn't have much credibility after picking Malan ahead of Buttler/Lawrence/Browne...and Stoneham and numerous others with apparently better claims. He also picked Dawson ahead of The Office Cat, which must have been a close one. (And although Toblerone saved the blushes with a good performance at the Oval he was a fairly questionable choice too.)

    The important thing is we drop Bayliss before the squad for Australia is picked. A defeat at Manchester might help.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 954
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
    I think there's a big realignment of voters going on across Western democracies. Some middle class voters realise they've been left wing all along, matched by working class voters realising they've been right wing all along.
    Absolutely correct, go to a council estate and ask for views on immigration, grammar schools, the death penalty, prison sentences etc. It is a mystery to me why these people vote labour.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 3,919
    repost...

    Tom Westley has earned a run at three but there are two other Essex batsmen I would have picked ahead of him - Daniel Lawrence and Nick Browne. I'd have picked Buttler ahead of all three though.

    Bayliss apparently prefers Root at three, which makes you wonder what kind of authority he wields if the player doesn't start in the position the manager wants him. But then Bayliss doesn't have much credibility after picking Malan ahead of Buttler/Lawrence/Browne...and Stoneham and numerous others with apparently better claims. He also picked Dawson ahead of The Office Cat, which must have been a close one. (And although Toblerone saved the blushes with a good performance at the Oval he was a fairly questionable choice too.)

    The important thing is we drop Bayliss before the squad for Australia is picked. A defeat at Manchester might help.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,083
    Morning all :)

    It is more than interesting to see how West Virginia has moved away from the Democrats since 1996 when Clinton won it. It was a marginal in 2000 with Bush winning 52 to 46 but last year Trump won 69 to 26. I suspect there are other states which have made the opposite journey.

    Justice himself was a Republican until re-registering as a Democrat in early 2015 and only just won the gubernatorial election. The cynic might say he saw the way the wind had blown in his state and figured he'd never beat another Republican so he'd have to become one (again and of course he's not the first to have ratted and then re-ratted).

    That said, he does sound a conservative Democrat which rather like the notion of a liberal Republican, seems an anachronism regrettably.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 37,194
    Mr. Doethur, Morris Dancer's jokes are high risqué, high reward.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 17,511

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
    I think there's a big realignment of voters going on across Western democracies. Some middle class voters realise they've been left wing all along, matched by working class voters realising they've been right wing all along.
    Absolutely correct, go to a council estate and ask for views on immigration, grammar schools, the death penalty, prison sentences etc. It is a mystery to me why these people vote labour.
    They voted Labour because historically, it was the party for the working classes, just as middle class left-wingers voted Conservative because it was the party for the middle classes.

    Now, both groups are voting in line with their values.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 12,861
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
    I think there's a big realignment of voters going on across Western democracies. Some middle class voters realise they've been left wing all along, matched by working class voters realising they've been right wing all along.
    The middle classes aged under 50 no longer remember what a socialist government looks like in reality.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,146

    Richard_H said:

    Trump should receive an award for services to comedy. He has been a gift to US late night talk shows, who might have struggled talking about reality TV stars each night.

    The question is whether the Trump circus is just a distraction and he is making changes without media spotlight. While media is concerned with Trumps latest Tweet or Russian link, Trump is signing off executive orders making changes he would not otherwise get away with ?

    This newsweek article and cover seem to have it right. Trumps executive orders are often over trivial things. Trump is Ted Bundy:

    http://www.newsweek.com/2017/08/11/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-gop-white-house-potus-bannon-643996.html?amp=1

    Trump has done bugger all apart from golf and twitter in 6 months. He has been West of the Mississippi just once, and that to a rally. He hasnt even nominated candidates for hundreds of posts, let alone got them starting work. He is a classic egotistical slacker.

    On the other hand his incompetence and laziness probably limits the harm he can do, apart from to his country's reputation.
    Long term I think scrapping TPP could have a big impact and is where his inaction has a big effect.

    See Japan doing trade deal with EU for instance.
    EU could become the benchmark for trade deals/standards/regulations etc.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,059
    edited August 4
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
    I think there's a big realignment of voters going on across Western democracies. Some middle class voters realise they've been left wing all along, matched by working class voters realising they've been right wing all along.
    The middle classes aged under 50 no longer remember what a socialist government looks like in reality.
    Have they never heard of the concept of picking up a history book to find out what happened a few decades ago?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,492

    I agree with @NickPalmer - the route to an early bath looks too tortuous to justify these odds. A resignation is the most likely, perhaps on health grounds or "health grounds". But he seems not to be overtaxing himself so I'm not expecting that either.

    I'd be inclined to ignore Trump's poll ratings and keep an eye on Ivanka and a look out for signs of collateral damage to the Trump brand.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 30,811

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 9,877
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
    I think there's a big realignment of voters going on across Western democracies. Some middle class voters realise they've been left wing all along, matched by working class voters realising they've been right wing all along.
    The middle classes aged under 50 no longer remember what a socialist government looks like in reality.
    Have they never heard of the concept of picking up a history book to find out what happened a few decades ago?
    Why only a few decades ago? Surely in order to be an informed voter they need to start earlier, perhaps with William/Harold?

    On a more serious note, perhaps this is an indication that the middle classes (income bracket?) feel more remote from the "ruling classes" and that Tezza's JAM speech didn't hit home.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,729
    TOPPING said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see the Democrat governor of West Virginia has defected to the Republicans!

    Sssssshhh doesn't fit the agenda on here Nick
    Might be worth pointing out that he is a former Republican. He appears to be something of a political weathercock. Mind you the same could be said of me!

    Still a fairly stunning indictment of the current state of the Democrats.
    Or the State of West Virginia...

    It's true, though, that the Democrats manage to embody in one party a similar division of the left to that which in this country allowed a decade of Thatcher hegemony.
    Interesting article this in the Washington Post:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/04/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-isnt-the-only-democrat-trump-won-over/?utm_term=.23787d4e6e8d

    I spent a lot of the time I was reading it thinking that for 'democrat' you could read 'Conservative'. But it might be arguable that in some parts of the country you could also read 'Labour'.

    There is a chance of a major political realignment to get underway. I can only hope we have worthier politicians than Corbyn and May (or Trump and Clinton) to lead it.

    Incidentally @foxinsoxuk - speaking for myself the more time Trump spends on the golf course than in the Oval Office, the better pleased I am.
    I think there's a big realignment of voters going on across Western democracies. Some middle class voters realise they've been left wing all along, matched by working class voters realising they've been right wing all along.
    The middle classes aged under 50 no longer remember what a socialist government looks like in reality.
    Have they never heard of the concept of picking up a history book to find out what happened a few decades ago?
    and that Tezza's JAM speech didn't hit home.

    Its a mystery why TMay's inspiring rhetoric and actions didn't hit home, isn't it??

    The complacency and delusion among Tories...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,059
    edited August 4
    Spectacular results for Labour in last night's local by-elections, including winning the Marine ward in Worthing for the first time ever (I think). They also won Margate Central from UKIP.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,004
    AndyJS said:

    Spectacular results for Labour in last night's local by-elections, including winning the Marine ward in Worthing for the first time ever (I think). They also won Margate Central from UKIP.

    Both caused by UKIP not standing/vote crashing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,181
    AndyJS said:

    Spectacular results for Labour in last night's local by-elections, including winning the Marine ward in Worthing for the first time ever (I think). They also won Margate Central from UKIP.

    Certainly 'very good' - I think 'spectacular' may be over-egging it - UKIP's clearly a busted flush.....the Tories less so:


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 7,972

    ydoethur said:

    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
    Eastbourne now has a significant student population.
    Pretty much everywhere has a big student population nowadays, it is why student debt is such an enormous issue, and total sum.

    Not many students in Worthing voting in August methinks. Something else is going on when solid blue Worthing and Purple Margate are going red.
    Is there a chance Conservative voters might be on holiday? What was the turnout like?

    Bear in mind only the rich (who may live in Worthing) and families with children (who may not) go on holiday in August. Those who have to watch spending more carefully and are not tied to school holidays prefer September and October.
    Possibly, but there is more than an insignificant chance of a Labour landslide next GE. May cannot recover,
    A government that borrows time rarely becomes more popular.

    And Brexit isn't going to become more popular either.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,067
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    nunuone said:

    Has Carlotta been along yet to tell us how Labour wins in wards in West Worthing and North Thanet in last night's byelections were good news for the Tories?

    The three by elections last bight were very good for labour. They are winning back the wwc ukip vote as well as winning new middle class voters.
    I think the interesting thing is evidence for demographic change on the south coast. Is what's happened in Brighton and Hove in the last 25 years now spreading out to other larger towns? Is it what also tipped Eastbourne back to the Libs? Worthing East looks winnable now for Lab. Rudd could be doomed too.
    Eastbourne now has a significant student population.
    Pretty much everywhere has a big student population nowadays, it is why student debt is such an enormous issue, and total sum.

    Not many students in Worthing voting in August methinks. Something else is going on when solid blue Worthing and Purple Margate are going red.
    Is there a chance Conservative voters might be on holiday? What was the turnout like?

    Bear in mind only the rich (who may live in Worthing) and families with children (who may not) go on holiday in August. Those who have to watch spending more carefully and are not tied to school holidays prefer September and October.
    Possibly, but there is more than an insignificant chance of a Labour landslide next GE. May cannot recover,
    A government that borrows time rarely becomes more popular.

    And Brexit isn't going to become more popular either.
    Sure it will, after it happens. In 10 years time everyone will wonder what the fuss was about.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 8,584

    I agree with @NickPalmer - the route to an early bath looks too tortuous to justify these odds. A resignation is the most likely, perhaps on health grounds or "health grounds". But he seems not to be overtaxing himself so I'm not expecting that either.

    I'd be inclined to ignore Trump's poll ratings and keep an eye on Ivanka and a look out for signs of collateral damage to the Trump brand.
    The West Virginia saga doesn’t say much for the Dem organisation in the state!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 40,988
    edited August 4
    Had a look at Marine Ward on electoral calculus. "Looks" like Labour houses to my Midlands eyes.
    Offington definitely the pick of the wards in the seat.
This discussion has been closed.