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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Angela Merkel looks well placed to continue as German Chancell

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited August 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Angela Merkel looks well placed to continue as German Chancellor after next month’s German election

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  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,333
    edited August 6
    First again! I suspect the reason the French system receives more attention in the UK is that it is relatively simple - not as disastrously simple as the UK model of course - while the German system seems more complicated to our Conservative friends who go in for betting..
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,176
    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,302

    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
    Indeed. I heard Dacre (Daily Mail) and Greig (MoS) hate each others guts! :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,587
    PClipp said:

    First again! I suspect the reason the French system receives more attention in the UK is that it is relatively simple - not as disastrously simple as the UK model of course - while the German system seems more complicated to our Conservative friends who go in for betting..

    Possibly the French elections' sheer unpredictability compared to Germany ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,302
    On Topic: Angie winning again will be good for Europe (and the UK)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,549

    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
    Editorially it's certainly different, but does it have a very different readership to the Daily Mail?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,549
    On topic:- Merkel's lead is "only" as big as May's was 7 weeks out from the election (in fact I think May's might have even been a bit bigger).

    That said, if you'd expect anywhere to defy the trend of populists having huge surges, you'd expect it to be boring steady old Germany.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,302
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
    Editorially it's certainly different, but does it have a very different readership to the Daily Mail?
    I doubt it... And I suspect the DM is far more "in touch" with their readers than MoS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,587
    Danny565 said:

    On topic:- Merkel's lead is "only" as big as May's was 7 weeks out from the election (in fact I think May's might have even been a bit bigger).

    That said, if you'd expect anywhere to defy the trend of populists having huge surges, you'd expect it to be boring steady old Germany.

    Yes, but has Merkel decided to announce a novel policy to slaughter the first born... ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125
    PClipp said:

    First again! I suspect the reason the French system receives more attention in the UK is that it is relatively simple - not as disastrously simple as the UK model of course - while the German system seems more complicated to our Conservative friends who go in for betting..

    France is a country we're more familiar with than Germany. Which is odd, given that ethnically, most of us are Germans.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125
    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
    Editorially it's certainly different, but does it have a very different readership to the Daily Mail?
    I doubt it... And I suspect the DM is far more "in touch" with their readers than MoS.
    The MoS editorial is strange, rather like the way the FT supported Labour for years.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
    Editorially it's certainly different, but does it have a very different readership to the Daily Mail?
    I doubt it... And I suspect the DM is far more "in touch" with their readers than MoS.
    The MoS editorial is strange, rather like the way the FT supported Labour for years.
    Confusingly, Peter Hitchens writes for the MoS not the Mail. Funny old world.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,198
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
    Editorially it's certainly different, but does it have a very different readership to the Daily Mail?
    I doubt it... And I suspect the DM is far more "in touch" with their readers than MoS.
    The MoS editorial is strange, rather like the way the FT supported Labour for years.
    The FT being a bit left is a fairly obvious phenomenon I'd have thought - at least some of their journalists would like to work in the industry that they report on, and want to be able to spin a slightly different slant and tax their jammy contemporaries. More tellingly they may have a greater insight into the excesses of greed that can sometimes drive the rampaging few. Having lunch with one or two of the more loathsome oiks that have made their way to the top is pretty opinion-changing (Somehow if you work for them your skin thickens).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368
    PClipp said:

    First again! I suspect the reason the French system receives more attention in the UK is that it is relatively simple - not as disastrously simple as the UK model of course - while the German system seems more complicated to our Conservative friends who go in for betting..

    The French presidential election gets attention but the legislative one had barely any attention. The reason punters on here give the French presidential election more attention is because it was unpredictable. Macron's victory in the second round looks very comfortable. But it could have been so very different.

    Similarly, the Dutch election received a lot of attention on here because it was close. The German election will not be close. We know the CDU/CSU will win most seats. Perhaps if we had constituency betting we could analyse it more closely, but we don't.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    Earlier in the year you could back Angela Merkel for next Chancellor at 1.7. I did, and pointed out at the time that was excellent value.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 179
    Presidential systems are more media friendly. The only open question regarding the German election is who Merkel's coalition partners will be.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 213
    On the German elections I think it could be interesting to bet on the coalition. Whilst more of the same is almost certainly an option, the old CDU-FDP could just be possible as well as CDU-Green.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,996

    On the German elections I think it could be interesting to bet on the coalition. Whilst more of the same is almost certainly an option, the old CDU-FDP could just be possible as well as CDU-Green.

    Vote Green, Go Blue?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,362
    Evening all :)

    The CDU/CSU position is analogous to that of the Conservatives after the last election.

    They don't have a majority but there's no alternative Government coalition.

    Presumably the FDP won't go in with a SPD/Green/Linke grouping and no one will work with AfD so that leaves either the CDU/CSU with the FDP as the most likely option if the FDP make it back into the Bundestag.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,392
    edited August 6
    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    I suspect the SPD have similar problems to those that the Lib Dems had in 2015. It is quite difficult to attack a government that you have been a part of and not particularly convincing when you try.

    My expectation is that they will do badly and that the FDP will be back. The SDP will probably be quite glad to get out of a suffocating grand coalition and back to the relative safety of opposition.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368
    @Sunil_Prasannan - Are you aware that during the blockade at London Bridge (August 29 to September 1), Southeastern will be running some services into London Waterloo via the flyover previously used by Eurostar? It's an opportunity to tick off that bit of track if you haven't got it already.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,392
    edited August 6

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,401
    edited August 6
    tlg86 said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan - Are you aware that during the blockade at London Bridge (August 29 to September 1), Southeastern will be running some services into London Waterloo via the flyover previously used by Eurostar? It's an opportunity to tick off that bit of track if you haven't got it already.

    Thanks :)

    I did it way back in 1999 when I caught Eurostar from Waterloo to Paris, but not since I bought a digital camera.

    Although it's not mentioned on PSUL!
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    Fill your boots
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    Essexit said:

    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.

    Has the experience of last June not taught you that most voters do not place getting out of the EU as their number one priority?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,650
    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368

    tlg86 said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan - Are you aware that during the blockade at London Bridge (August 29 to September 1), Southeastern will be running some services into London Waterloo via the flyover previously used by Eurostar? It's an opportunity to tick off that bit of track if you haven't got it already.

    Thanks :)

    I did it way back in 1999 when I caught Eurostar from Waterloo to Paris, but not since I bought a digital camera.
    I might do it one of those evenings. I have a horrible feeling that tomorrow is going to be carnage at Waterloo and Clapham Junction, but luckily I can go in early and leave early.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527

    Essexit said:

    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.

    Has the experience of last June not taught you that most voters do not place getting out of the EU as their number one priority?
    It became a non-issue because the two main parties had the same stance.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,401
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan - Are you aware that during the blockade at London Bridge (August 29 to September 1), Southeastern will be running some services into London Waterloo via the flyover previously used by Eurostar? It's an opportunity to tick off that bit of track if you haven't got it already.

    Thanks :)

    I did it way back in 1999 when I caught Eurostar from Waterloo to Paris, but not since I bought a digital camera.
    I might do it one of those evenings. I have a horrible feeling that tomorrow is going to be carnage at Waterloo and Clapham Junction, but luckily I can go in early and leave early.
    Apparently, the connection at East Putney is in use in daylight (ie. early evenings) from tomorrow to 24th.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,362
    The New Zealand General Election takes place the same weekend as the German election.

    The National Government of Bill English, who took over from John Key in 2015, remains in a strong position but rather like Merkel and May, English is likely to fall short of an overall majority and is currently projected to win 56 of the 121 NZ seats.

    The opposition Labor Party has recently changed little with Andrew Little replaced with Jacinda Ardem. Labor have as much to do as the SPD in all honesty but unlike their German counterparts, the NZ Greens are running a strong third with NZ First in fourth.

    Recent arguments suggest the idea of a Labor-Green-NZ First Government is fairly remote but mathematically feasible. It may be Ardem can make it happen but Peters is the NZ equivalent of Farage (only more successful). If Labor can take support from National it will make the post-election interesting but you'd have to think the solid National support level will hold and English will be elected.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.

    Has the experience of last June not taught you that most voters do not place getting out of the EU as their number one priority?
    It became a non-issue because the two main parties had the same stance.
    To claim they had the same stance is disingenuous. May's stance was 'strengthen my hand' and Corbyn's stance was 'my hands are tied'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan - Are you aware that during the blockade at London Bridge (August 29 to September 1), Southeastern will be running some services into London Waterloo via the flyover previously used by Eurostar? It's an opportunity to tick off that bit of track if you haven't got it already.

    Thanks :)

    I did it way back in 1999 when I caught Eurostar from Waterloo to Paris, but not since I bought a digital camera.
    I might do it one of those evenings. I have a horrible feeling that tomorrow is going to be carnage at Waterloo and Clapham Junction, but luckily I can go in early and leave early.
    Apparently, the connection at East Putney is in use in daylight (ie. early evenings) from tomorrow to 24th.
    It is, I've not done that either.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    They offered passive incoherence up against the aggressive incoherence of the Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049
    Sean_F said:

    PClipp said:

    First again! I suspect the reason the French system receives more attention in the UK is that it is relatively simple - not as disastrously simple as the UK model of course - while the German system seems more complicated to our Conservative friends who go in for betting..

    France is a country we're more familiar with than Germany. Which is odd, given that ethnically, most of us are Germans.
    ...But we were conquered by the Norman French in 1066 and to a quite significant degree they are still in charge.

    Just been a paying guest today around the Duke of Norfolk's pad at Arundel... The Norfolks seem to be just about managing :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    They offered passive incoherence up against the aggressive incoherence of the Tories.
    So broadly the same position then? :smiley:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,401
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan - Are you aware that during the blockade at London Bridge (August 29 to September 1), Southeastern will be running some services into London Waterloo via the flyover previously used by Eurostar? It's an opportunity to tick off that bit of track if you haven't got it already.

    Thanks :)

    I did it way back in 1999 when I caught Eurostar from Waterloo to Paris, but not since I bought a digital camera.
    I might do it one of those evenings. I have a horrible feeling that tomorrow is going to be carnage at Waterloo and Clapham Junction, but luckily I can go in early and leave early.
    Apparently, the connection at East Putney is in use in daylight (ie. early evenings) from tomorrow to 24th.
    It is, I've not done that either.
    Me neither!
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.

    Has the experience of last June not taught you that most voters do not place getting out of the EU as their number one priority?
    It became a non-issue because the two main parties had the same stance.
    To claim they had the same stance is disingenuous. May's stance was 'strengthen my hand' and Corbyn's stance was 'my hands are tied'.
    Yes, May was a reluctant Remainer, Corbyn a reluctant Leaver.

    Still, we're leaving, all is well.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,650
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
    In the circumstances described above, the positions would be different - Labour in favour of staying in the SM (ergo Freedom of Movement).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
    In the circumstances described above, the positions would be different - Labour in favour of staying in the SM (ergo Freedom of Movement).
    And the Tories in favour of leaving, ergo redundancies. We know from polling which side would be more likely to come out on top in that argument.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
    Good point, read Lib Dem and Ukip for evidence
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125

    Sean_F said:

    PClipp said:

    First again! I suspect the reason the French system receives more attention in the UK is that it is relatively simple - not as disastrously simple as the UK model of course - while the German system seems more complicated to our Conservative friends who go in for betting..

    France is a country we're more familiar with than Germany. Which is odd, given that ethnically, most of us are Germans.
    ...But we were conquered by the Norman French in 1066 and to a quite significant degree they are still in charge.

    Just been a paying guest today around the Duke of Norfolk's pad at Arundel... The Norfolks seem to be just about managing :lol:
    That had a huge impact. For centuries, anyone who was anyone thought of France as the home of culture and literature, French was the language of diplomacy, even when we were fighting them. We thought of Germany as some kind of dismal hole, even when ruled by the House of Hanover, until they suddenly burst on the scene after 1870.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    GIN1138 said:

    On Topic: Angie winning again will be good for Europe (and the UK)

    Yes, agree, the uncontrolled immigration of a generation of fighting-age Jihadis will royally screw the EU and Germany - therefore being good for Europe and the UK.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,650
    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
    In the circumstances described above, the positions would be different - Labour in favour of staying in the SM (ergo Freedom of Movement).
    I understand that, but I do not buy it. If leaving the SM is your most important issue, you probably already voted Tory. If not, then yet another vote on the issue is unlikely to be more successful than the first. There is a majority for leave, not for any particular version, and not to the exclusion of other matters.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,928
    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5

    Presumably everyone just coming round to the view that there isn't time - May obviously won't call one and even if she is deposed by the time a new leader is elected it'll (practically) be too late.

    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
    In the circumstances described above, the positions would be different - Labour in favour of staying in the SM (ergo Freedom of Movement).
    I understand that, but I do not buy it. If leaving the SM is your most important issue, you probably already voted Tory. If not, then yet another vote on the issue is unlikely to be more successful than the first. There is a majority for leave, not for any particular version, and not to the exclusion of other matters.
    I'm not convinced there's a majority for leave any more. And the more the Tories are seen to be unable to settle on fixed positions for what they want the more the balance will tip away.

    Tories who think rerunning another election based entirely on Hard Brexit whilst prisons and hospitals continue to fail will be in for a rude awakening.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,180
    I went swimming at the local pool today. I put a drumstick in my speedos so I could taste some chlorinated chicken after. The remainers should know; it's really not that bad. Certainly good enough for the food banks.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049
    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Very little going on but odds on a 2017 GE have been steadily drifting over the last couple of weeks.

    Two markets on Betfair:

    Year of GE - 2017 is: Back 13 / Lay 19

    Second GE in 2017 is: Back 11 / Lay 15.5



    Plus any new PM would surely want the chance to just be PM for even a short while before risking losing a GE.

    Not my type of bet, but I'd say the realistic odds of another GE this year is nearer 1000/1. A few % interest for big punters is easy money.
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.
    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.
    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?
    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.
    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.
    In the circumstances described above, the positions would be different - Labour in favour of staying in the SM (ergo Freedom of Movement).
    I understand that, but I do not buy it. If leaving the SM is your most important issue, you probably already voted Tory. If not, then yet another vote on the issue is unlikely to be more successful than the first. There is a majority for leave, not for any particular version, and not to the exclusion of other matters.
    Agreed. I think most people, whether they were leavers or remainers, now expect us to leave and have lost interest in the subject.

    Their interest would only be rekindled by a cancellation of the A50 process (which is not going to happen) or a painful hard brexit directly impacting their lives. Any government of whatever hue can avoid that by agreeing the softest possible brexit. The next GE will be determined on non-Brexit issues: how voters are feeling about the economy, their own and their families' prospects, the state of public services, security etc.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049

    I went swimming at the local pool today. I put a drumstick in my speedos so I could taste some chlorinated chicken after. The remainers should know; it's really not that bad. Certainly good enough for the food banks.

    Hah! call that a drumstick? - looked more like a chicken wing to me!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049
    GeoffM said:

    GIN1138 said:

    On Topic: Angie winning again will be good for Europe (and the UK)

    Yes, agree, the uncontrolled immigration of a generation of fighting-age Jihadis will royally screw the EU and Germany - therefore being good for Europe and the UK.
    You live in a fantasy world of your own imagination Geoff!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,211
    The €40 billion "exit fee" , which was trailed in the Sunday Telegraph and promptly denied. Is that the government warming people up to the fact of a significant fee being paid, or is it really a civil war between the Die-Hards and the Regulars?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,211


    Agreed. I think most people, whether they were leavers or remainers, now expect us to leave and have lost interest in the subject.

    Their interest would only be rekindled by a cancellation of the A50 process (which is not going to happen) or a painful hard brexit directly impacting their lives. Any government of whatever hue can avoid that by agreeing the softest possible brexit. The next GE will be determined on non-Brexit issues: how voters are feeling about the economy, their own and their families' prospects, the state of public services, security etc.

    It won't be a soft exit because the treaties will lapse when we do exit. It could be a soft non-exit or a soft-for-the-time-being not-exit-yet. The next election will be dominated by Brexit.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,650
    edited August 6
    Agreed it seems very unlikely - but so many unexpected things have happened recently that I would be reluctant to rule anything out.

    I think the most likely way it could happen is as follows:

    Reports suggest Labour may well push remaining a member of the Single Market (or Customs Union) to a vote this Autumn. If they do that and the Government loses then that just might lead to a complete collapse and in turn a GE.

    ...a GE where Labour would be wiped out in Leave-voting North/Midlands seats in exchange for a few gains in Remain seats.

    Really? That was the plan last time wasn't it?

    Labour had broadly the same position on the EU as the Tories.

    So why would that lead to Labour wipe out in Leave areas next time?
    My own pet theory is that there is a substantial sub section of the population who are sick to the eye teeth of seeing and hearing about Brexit and the attitudes of hard liners on both sides. They gravitated to the Party who didn't bang on about it.

    In the circumstances described above, the positions would be different - Labour in favour of staying in the SM (ergo Freedom of Movement).

    I understand that, but I do not buy it. If leaving the SM is your most important issue, you probably already voted Tory. If not, then yet another vote on the issue is unlikely to be more successful than the first. There is a majority for leave, not for any particular version, and not to the exclusion of other matters.

    Agreed. I think most people, whether they were leavers or remainers, now expect us to leave and have lost interest in the subject.

    Their interest would only be rekindled by a cancellation of the A50 process (which is not going to happen) or a painful hard brexit directly impacting their lives. Any government of whatever hue can avoid that by agreeing the softest possible brexit. The next GE will be determined on non-Brexit issues: how voters are feeling about the economy, their own and their families' prospects, the state of public services, security etc.


    Agreed. I feel that will happen whether the next GE is in 5 months or 5 years. Brexit is a topic that excites strong emotions on some people, but not most.


    ps Blockquote fail...apologies.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049
    FF43 said:

    The €40 billion "exit fee" , which was trailed in the Sunday Telegraph and promptly denied. Is that the government warming people up to the fact of a significant fee being paid, or is it really a civil war between the Die-Hards and the Regulars?

    I suspect you are right - softening up in progress.

    €40bn (£36bn) is less than 2 years contribution according to the Leave campaign, so I am sure the government could sell it to them! :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049
    FF43 said:


    Agreed. I think most people, whether they were leavers or remainers, now expect us to leave and have lost interest in the subject.

    Their interest would only be rekindled by a cancellation of the A50 process (which is not going to happen) or a painful hard brexit directly impacting their lives. Any government of whatever hue can avoid that by agreeing the softest possible brexit. The next GE will be determined on non-Brexit issues: how voters are feeling about the economy, their own and their families' prospects, the state of public services, security etc.

    It won't be a soft exit because the treaties will lapse when we do exit. It could be a soft non-exit or a soft-for-the-time-being not-exit-yet. The next election will be dominated by Brexit.

    You mean like the last one was (expected to be)?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    dixiedean said:

    Agreed. I feel that will happen whether the next GE is in 5 months or 5 years. Brexit is a topic that excites strong emotions on some people, but not most.

    There is inherent danger for any government if an issue has the capacity to show them not to be in control of events, and willing to respond in a way that threatens the interests of citizens. That's why Lamont's efforts to defend the value of the pound were so toxic, regardless of whether anyone cared about the ERM one way or the other.

    Brexit dominates everything for the government at the moment, and they are already failing to maintain the appearance of being in control.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,211

    FF43 said:

    The €40 billion "exit fee" , which was trailed in the Sunday Telegraph and promptly denied. Is that the government warming people up to the fact of a significant fee being paid, or is it really a civil war between the Die-Hards and the Regulars?

    I suspect you are right - softening up in progress.

    €40bn (£36bn) is less than 2 years contribution according to the Leave campaign, so I am sure the government could sell it to them! :lol:
    If it's really for a three year transition as previously described by Philip Hammond, the amount will be larger than €40 billion over the period. The EU will charge the full rate and residual amounts for pensions and infrastructure projects that have been budgeted but not accrued will be on top.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,211

    FF43 said:


    Agreed. I think most people, whether they were leavers or remainers, now expect us to leave and have lost interest in the subject.

    Their interest would only be rekindled by a cancellation of the A50 process (which is not going to happen) or a painful hard brexit directly impacting their lives. Any government of whatever hue can avoid that by agreeing the softest possible brexit. The next GE will be determined on non-Brexit issues: how voters are feeling about the economy, their own and their families' prospects, the state of public services, security etc.

    It won't be a soft exit because the treaties will lapse when we do exit. It could be a soft non-exit or a soft-for-the-time-being not-exit-yet. The next election will be dominated by Brexit.

    You mean like the last one was (expected to be)?
    The debate is no longer about whether to Leave or Remain. It is about how to deal with the mess and what to do next and who is going to make the decisions. Those things certainly informed the last election.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,530
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The €40 billion "exit fee" , which was trailed in the Sunday Telegraph and promptly denied. Is that the government warming people up to the fact of a significant fee being paid, or is it really a civil war between the Die-Hards and the Regulars?

    I suspect you are right - softening up in progress.

    €40bn (£36bn) is less than 2 years contribution according to the Leave campaign, so I am sure the government could sell it to them! :lol:
    If it's really for a three year transition as previously described by Philip Hammond, the amount will be larger than €40 billion over the period. The EU will charge the full rate and residual amounts for pensions and infrastructure projects that have been budgeted but not accrued will be on top.
    The way some people are interpreting is that the "transition period" will be contribution free. No Sireee ! Transition period means that even though we will be out, we still will be in. We still have to pay our "normal" contributions. The €40 billion is a quite separate divorce bill.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049
    edited August 6
    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The €40 billion "exit fee" , which was trailed in the Sunday Telegraph and promptly denied. Is that the government warming people up to the fact of a significant fee being paid, or is it really a civil war between the Die-Hards and the Regulars?

    I suspect you are right - softening up in progress.

    €40bn (£36bn) is less than 2 years contribution according to the Leave campaign, so I am sure the government could sell it to them! :lol:
    If it's really for a three year transition as previously described by Philip Hammond, the amount will be larger than €40 billion over the period. The EU will charge the full rate and residual amounts for pensions and infrastructure projects that have been budgeted but not accrued will be on top.
    The way some people are interpreting is that the "transition period" will be contribution free. No Sireee ! Transition period means that even though we will be out, we still will be in. We still have to pay our "normal" contributions. The €40 billion is a quite separate divorce bill.
    Yes, I get that it's in addition to continued contributions during the transition period.

    It's the equivalent of 2 years contributions (according to Leave - in reality it's equal to 4 years net contributions but Leave will look pretty silly arguing that, given 'the bus').

    I think a large majority of the UK public will accept that, if leads to a sensible post-brexit relationship with the EU.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,644
    To some extent this is all a phoney war on Brexit - some sort of deal will be done on settled foreigners each wa and (more tricky) on Ireland, and the public doesn't really have a feel for whether £30, 40, 50 or 80 billion are a lot of a little. Deals will be reached, but there will then be a more serious battle on market access. I still think an overall deal will be achieved in the end, but a drab one that leaves everyone a bit fed up.

    Like Dixiedean I think many people are bored with it - they feel it's all a bit worrying but are not following the details. There will come a crunch at some point - EU negotiations always have a period of deadlock - and that may focus minds again. But I don't think it will sway many votes unless it goes really wonderfully or horribly.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,263

    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The €40 billion "exit fee" , which was trailed in the Sunday Telegraph and promptly denied. Is that the government warming people up to the fact of a significant fee being paid, or is it really a civil war between the Die-Hards and the Regulars?

    I suspect you are right - softening up in progress.

    €40bn (£36bn) is less than 2 years contribution according to the Leave campaign, so I am sure the government could sell it to them! :lol:
    If it's really for a three year transition as previously described by Philip Hammond, the amount will be larger than €40 billion over the period. The EU will charge the full rate and residual amounts for pensions and infrastructure projects that have been budgeted but not accrued will be on top.
    The way some people are interpreting is that the "transition period" will be contribution free. No Sireee ! Transition period means that even though we will be out, we still will be in. We still have to pay our "normal" contributions. The €40 billion is a quite separate divorce bill.
    Yes, I get that it's in addition to continued contributions during the transition period.

    It's the equivalent of 2 years contributions (according to Leave - in reality it's equal to 4 years net contributions but Leave will look pretty silly arguing that, given 'the bus').

    I think a large majority of the UK public will accept that, if leads to a sensible post-brexit relationship with the EU.
    Part of the E40b Bill is for our share of the rest of the budget cycle up to and including 2020. If there is a transition period we won't pay twice so it's not all additional.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    edited August 6
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:
    You've got to remember the the Mail on Sunday has a totally different editorial slant than Dacre's Daily Mail. It was, for instance, pro-Remain.
    Editorially it's certainly different, but does it have a very different readership to the Daily Mail?
    Going by the most popular comments under that article:

    The only fanatic here is Vince Cable who's upset that he misses out on the EU gravy train.

    NOBODY Voted for 'Brexit' it is a term that has been hijacked by the Liberal Left Losers to manipulate the wording and ensure we Remain...........mine and 17,399,000 other winning ballot papers CLEARLY said 'LEAVE THE EU', we can't do that if we have ECJ, Free Movement etc etc

    There was s referendum - you lost. What is it about democracy that the Lib Dems hate so much, what is it you don't understand? I guarantee if we had a second referendum and Brexit won again, this man would call for another and then another until he gets his way.

    "The Remain argument about economic damage is now largely accepted." Really? Accepted by whom? Only by old fools who find themselves leading an almost-defunct, useless political party.


    I suspect the readership (or those who Comment and support comments) is in line with the Daily, not Sunday line.

    These are the least popular comments:

    When will you Brexiters get it into your heads that the "democratic" referendum was only advisory and the government is not required to implement it. Indeed , the general election - which supersedes the referendum - showed there is no majority support for Theresa May's extreme version of Brexit.

    f Brexiters are so certain that this is the "will of the people", let's have a second referendum on the terms of Brexit. What are you afraid of?

    hope that the brunt of the economic pain from Brexit will be borne by those who voted to leave, but as Mr Cable points out, this group mainly comprises wealthy pensioners who will be unaffected. The rest of the Brexit vote was made up of the Jeremy Kyle underclass - again with nothing to lose.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    Just started reading:

    Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union
    by Harold D. Clarke (Author), Matthew Goodwin (Author), Paul Whiteley (Author)

    Fascinating stuff!
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,180
    edited August 7

    I went swimming at the local pool today. I put a drumstick in my speedos so I could taste some chlorinated chicken after. The remainers should know; it's really not that bad. Certainly good enough for the food banks.

    Hah! call that a drumstick? - looked more like a chicken wing to me!
    I think they're just chlorine washed giblets..

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,180
    edited August 7
    X
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 300
    No, I think you are misreading it. The idea is that by having a transition period and paying contributions during this time, it is a 'downpayment' on the Brexit bill. This partly makes sense because a lot of the 'bill' simply relates to UK contributions during the forecast budget period so if we keep paying for full SM access during this time, a lot of the 'bill' goes away. It is meant to be a mechanism whereby the EU says we paid 40 billion after we left, and the UK says we paid not much but normal contributions during the transition period but in return for full SM access in this time. At least this is the way I read the article - it says "Senior Whitehall officials are now looking to propose a transition deal which would see Britain continue to offer to make net payments to the EU of some €10bn-a-year for up to three years after Brexit. The payments would represent a partial payment on a final €40bn bill."

    I can see a fudge where we pay for full SM access during the transition period and a bit over at the end totalling 40 billion. If the EU want payment during the transition period plus 40 billion, it has no chance of passing the cabinet let alone anywhere else.

    I do remind people that the UK has no legal liability for pensions, infrastructure projects or anything else.

    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:



    If it's really for a three year transition as previously described by Philip Hammond, the amount will be larger than €40 billion over the period. The EU will charge the full rate and residual amounts for pensions and infrastructure projects that have been budgeted but not accrued will be on top.

    The way some people are interpreting is that the "transition period" will be contribution free. No Sireee ! Transition period means that even though we will be out, we still will be in. We still have to pay our "normal" contributions. The €40 billion is a quite separate divorce bill.
    Yes, I get that it's in addition to continued contributions during the transition period.

    It's the equivalent of 2 years contributions (according to Leave - in reality it's equal to 4 years net contributions but Leave will look pretty silly arguing that, given 'the bus').

    I think a large majority of the UK public will accept that, if leads to a sensible post-brexit relationship with the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,364

    No, I think you are misreading it. The idea is that by having a transition period and paying contributions during this time, it is a 'downpayment' on the Brexit bill. This partly makes sense because a lot of the 'bill' simply relates to UK contributions during the forecast budget period so if we keep paying for full SM access during this time, a lot of the 'bill' goes away. It is meant to be a mechanism whereby the EU says we paid 40 billion after we left, and the UK says we paid not much but normal contributions during the transition period but in return for full SM access in this time. At least this is the way I read the article - it says "Senior Whitehall officials are now looking to propose a transition deal which would see Britain continue to offer to make net payments to the EU of some €10bn-a-year for up to three years after Brexit. The payments would represent a partial payment on a final €40bn bill."

    I can see a fudge where we pay for full SM access during the transition period and a bit over at the end totalling 40 billion. If the EU want payment during the transition period plus 40 billion, it has no chance of passing the cabinet let alone anywhere else.

    I do remind people that the UK has no legal liability for pensions, infrastructure projects or anything else.

    surbiton said:

    FF43 said:



    If it's really for a three year transition as previously described by Philip Hammond, the amount will be larger than €40 billion over the period. The EU will charge the full rate and residual amounts for pensions and infrastructure projects that have been budgeted but not accrued will be on top.

    The way some people are interpreting is that the "transition period" will be contribution free. No Sireee ! Transition period means that even though we will be out, we still will be in. We still have to pay our "normal" contributions. The €40 billion is a quite separate divorce bill.
    Yes, I get that it's in addition to continued contributions during the transition period.

    It's the equivalent of 2 years contributions (according to Leave - in reality it's equal to 4 years net contributions but Leave will look pretty silly arguing that, given 'the bus').

    I think a large majority of the UK public will accept that, if leads to a sensible post-brexit relationship with the EU.
    As a matter of interest, if Scotland voted to secede from the UK, would you believe that it had any liability for UK civil servants pensions?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 300
    Yes. Scotland is part of a nation, and if it split the assets and liabilities would need to be divided. It would make sense that pensions would be part of that. When you are part of a nation, you are indeed jointly liable for all liabilities and share all assets.

    The UK is not part of a EU 'nation', we are part of an international organisation governed by treaties which they wrote and to which we agreed. These treaties make it clear that (a) liabilities of the EU are liabilities of this organisation, not the member states and (b) that the EU must fund all its expenditure from its own resources, they do not have separate recourse to member states.
    rcs1000 said:



    As a matter of interest, if Scotland voted to secede from the UK, would you believe that it had any liability for UK civil servants pensions?

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,322
    The reason why the French election got attention was because it had an extreme-right candidate in the running. This fits a juicy media template from every part of the British political spectrum:

    * Far-right: We're winning!
    * Right: The EU is falling apart and turning into some undefined more nation-statier thing
    * Centre / Centre-left: THE WORLD IS DOOMED (Read all about it)
    * Left: Neo-liberalism is crumbling!

    There's bascally nothing for the UK media in the German election, which is basically Moderate Centre-Right Leader Still On Course To Beat Moderate Centre-Left Leader.

    If AfD were in serious contention instead of being down to a few guys and a dog you'd be hearing *lot* about the German election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368

    The reason why the French election got attention was because it had an extreme-right candidate in the running. This fits a juicy media template from every part of the British political spectrum:

    * Far-right: We're winning!
    * Right: The EU is falling apart and turning into some undefined more nation-statier thing
    * Centre / Centre-left: THE WORLD IS DOOMED (Read all about it)
    * Left: Neo-liberalism is crumbling!

    There's bascally nothing for the UK media in the German election, which is basically Moderate Centre-Right Leader Still On Course To Beat Moderate Centre-Left Leader.

    If AfD were in serious contention instead of being down to a few guys and a dog you'd be hearing *lot* about the German election.

    Certainly there was a lot of excitement in 2002 (but there really shouldn't have been). But the 2007 and 2012 elections received a lot of coverage too. I cannot remember anything about previous German elections.
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