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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » James Chapman’s Democrats notion is a doomed distraction

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited August 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » James Chapman’s Democrats notion is a doomed distraction

James Chapman is not a name that many people will have been aware of before this week. Some will remember him as the Political Editor of the Daily Mail; a few might recall that he became George Osborne’s Director of Communications after the 2015 election; fewer still will have known that he was briefly Chief of Staff at David Davis’ Brexit Department. He has, however, now burst back onto the political scene with what is for now still very much a one-man crusade for a new party – The Democrats – to save Britain from herself and from Brexit.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,686
    edited August 12
    "UKIP – the party which the Democrats would most closely resemble politically (albeit in mirror image) – was founded in 1991 as the Anti-Federalist League. A decade later, despite having established a place for itself in the political firmament, it was still winning only 1.5% of the vote and it would be 23 years after their formation before they gained their first elected MP (and that following a defection)."

    UKIP's first MP was Bob Spink in Castle Point in 2008.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,686
    "My guess will be that they do: Chapman would look pretty silly if after all his tweeting (including about the Democrats forming governments: talk about hubris!), nothing at all came of it."

    He looks very silly anyway, regardless of whether it happens.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,858
    JohnLoony said:

    "UKIP – the party which the Democrats would most closely resemble politically (albeit in mirror image) – was founded in 1991 as the Anti-Federalist League. A decade later, despite having established a place for itself in the political firmament, it was still winning only 1.5% of the vote and it would be 23 years after their formation before they gained their first elected MP (and that following a defection)."

    UKIP's first MP was Bob Spink in Castle Point in 2008.

    Yes, hence the qualification "first elected MP"

    (Obviously, Spink had been elected but not under UKIP's banner. Nor would he be).
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,686
    This is a bit like the SDP, except going straight from the 1980 phase to the 1990 phase with no intervening details or members whatsoever. It's like what the SDP would have been in 1981, if the Liberal Party had decided not to have any electoral pact at any level, if the Gang of Four had never existed, and if the founding members had been Victor Borge and Hattie Jacques instead of Roy Jenkins and Shirley Poppins.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,686
    All of this is happening, and is being given so much media attention on the internet, only because of a few tweets by a nonentity that nobody has ever heard of, who is about as famous as the people on Celebrity Big Brother, and not because of any real support - or even interest - from any actual politicians. Only a tiny handful of hystericalist ultra-remoaniacs, also only on Twitter and not in the real world.

    That this is being given any attention at all is a sign of the times we live in; after all we are in the middle of the Silly Season (it would be more logical and relevant to have a thread about the potential electoral prospects of a Silly Party under the leadership of Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel) and it's not as if we're only a few days away from a nuclear war or anything.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,211
    edited August 12
    Good article, however I think the more fundamental problem is that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped, therefore there isn't enough demand for a party that attempts to do so.

    The possible outcomes for Brexit are:

    1. It's a success. The consensus of opinion is happy to be out. Sceptics are won over.
    2. It's a failure. The consensus is that Brexit was a mistake, including people who previously supported it (similar to the Iraq war). There are serious attempts to rejoin the EU, or near equivalent.
    3. It is compromised. In an attempt to avoid failure, Brexit is mitigated and watered down to the extent there is no real point to it. There is no serious attempt to rejoin the EU.
    4. Brexit is stopped.

    The first three require Brexit to happen. (2) will see mainstream parties oppose Brexit so there is no need for Chapman Democrats. Political operators who want (1) may push for (3) to avoid (2). Personally I think a compromised Brexit is the most likely outcome, but that is because I don't think a successful Brexit is particularly likely. I don't think a stopped Brexit is likely either. A failed Brexit is a definite possibility.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    Janan Ganesh has a good article on the subject too:

    To avoid caricature as pro-European monomaniacs, and to let their restless energies roam, the people involved aspire to stand for something broad: political moderation in an age of extremes. This requires them to have policies, or at least first principles, across the full spectrum of government business. But each time a putative party settles its view on, say, fiscal policy or healthcare, it will alienate some of its original and potential supporters. It also loses definition. Before the project has a single achievement to its name, it is bogged down in matters of internal theology. It becomes a paradox: a fissiparous political party with no MPs.

    https://www.ft.com/content/230972b6-7b87-11e7-ab01-a13271d1ee9c?emailId=598952a442a3ee000463febb

    What UKIP had going for it was a single idea 'Out of the EU' - implicit in its name (with a hefty dose of stop immigration thrown in) and a single charismatic spokesman - Farage.

    What do the 'Democrats' have going for them? An idea arguably based on a rejection of a democratic decision, and no charismatic spokesperson.....


    Chapman would look pretty silly if after all his tweeting......

    That bridge was crossed several dozen tweets ago.....
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,686
    Eighth!

    Just like the Democrats will be in the opinion polls in six months' time!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,936
    edited August 12
    In the 1980s the politicians appeared to be trying to lead the people toward the extremes, and the formation and couple of years of success of the Alliance was a counter-reaction.

    Today it is the people dragging politicians towards the extremes, whether a more radical challenge to austerity from the left or replacing economic prudence with the radicalism of Brexit on the right, leaving a vacuum in the centre. Sadly the lesson of history is that things have actually to go badly wrong as a consequence of extremism before there is any renewed demand for the moderate centre. Meanwhile the 'Democrats' would appear to be a product without a customer base, and with an existing struggling competitor for the same market.

    We just have to wait for the inevitable disaster, and are fortunate (in the Chinese sense) to have so many potential scenarios to chose from.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    JohnLoony said:

    "UKIP – the party which the Democrats would most closely resemble politically (albeit in mirror image) – was founded in 1991 as the Anti-Federalist League. A decade later, despite having established a place for itself in the political firmament, it was still winning only 1.5% of the vote and it would be 23 years after their formation before they gained their first elected MP (and that following a defection)."

    UKIP's first MP was Bob Spink in Castle Point in 2008.

    Not elected as a Kipper though!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,576
    FF43 said:

    Good article, however I think the more fundamental problem is that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped, therefore there isn't enough demand for a party that attempts to do so.

    The possible outcomes for Brexit are:

    1. It's a success. The consensus of opinion is happy to be out. Sceptics are won over.
    2. It's a failure. The consensus is that Brexit was a mistake, including people who previously supported it (similar to the Iraq war). There are serious attempts to rejoin the EU, or near equivalent.
    3. It is compromised. In an attempt to avoid failure, Brexit is mitigated and watered down to the extent there is no real point to it. There is no serious attempt to rejoin the EU.
    4. Brexit is stopped.

    The first three require Brexit to happen. (2) will see mainstream parties oppose Brexit so there is no need for Chapman Democrats. Political operators who want (1) may push for (3) to avoid (2). Personally I think a compromised Brexit is the most likely outcome, but that is because I don't think a successful Brexit is particularly likely. I don't think a stopped Brexit is likely either. A failed Brexit is a definite possibility.

    Good post.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Good morning, everyone.

    Interesting prediction, Mr. Herdson. Brave to make them in the current political climate :p
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    I see Waters is now cleared to stand for UKIP Leader. With an 11 candidate FPTP system, and rumours of hard right entryism she is now BF favourite.

    It is a tough contest to call though.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    edited August 12
    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile the 'Democrats' would appear to be a product without a customer base

    The customer basis is other politicians who fear a BREXIT car crash and are trying to identify escape routes, other journalists who don't want to be associated with the great unwashed and members of the punditklatura still smarting from being ignored by same.....

    Yer actual 'voters', not so much.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    RobD said:

    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.

    He is truly that, but does add to the gaiety of the nation during silly season.

    His party is a non starter, but also shows the folly of having Cable as LD leader. He is too associated with the past coalition to be able to pick up anti Brexit votes.

    Meanwhile it does seem that the difficulties of Brexit are dawning on the cabinet.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,576

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile the 'Democrats' would appear to be a product without a customer base

    The customer basis is other politicians who fear a BREXIT car crash and are trying to identify escape routes, other journalists who don't want to be associated with the great unwashed and members of the punditklatura still smarting from being ignored by same.....

    Yer actual 'voters', not so much.....
    From the opposite side of the Brexit debate....... agree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    RobD said:

    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.

    The former political editor of the Daily Mail came across as an utter loon?

    I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    Iain Martin's view. He seems to think it's a joke that got out of hand:

    https://reaction.life/worried-james-chapman/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.

    The former political editor of the Daily Mail came across as an utter loon?

    I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!
    I am both shocked and appalled!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    RobD said:

    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.

    I'm not sure that the most... committed Brexiters are particularly well qualified to sit in judgement over the sanity of others.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412

    What UKIP had going for it was a single idea 'Out of the EU' - implicit in its name (with a hefty dose of stop immigration thrown in) and a single charismatic spokesman - Farage.

    What do the 'Democrats' have going for them?

    They have a single idea; avert catastrophe.

    The problem for them right now is that most people do not expect catastrophe, therefore see no need to avoid it.

    Any number of Titanic analogies spring to mind...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527

    RobD said:

    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.

    I'm not sure that the most... committed Brexiters are particularly well qualified to sit in judgement over the sanity of others.
    How do you think he came off then? :p
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 9,088
    IanB2 said:

    In the 1980s the politicians appeared to be trying to lead the people toward the extremes, and the formation and couple of years of success of the Alliance was a counter-reaction.

    Today it is the people dragging politicians towards the extremes, whether a more radical challenge to austerity from the left or replacing economic prudence with the radicalism of Brexit on the right, leaving a vacuum in the centre. Sadly the lesson of history is that things have actually to go badly wrong as a consequence of extremism before there is any renewed demand for the moderate centre. Meanwhile the 'Democrats' would appear to be a product without a customer base, and with an existing struggling competitor for the same market.

    We just have to wait for the inevitable disaster, and are fortunate (in the Chinese sense) to have so many potential scenarios to chose from.

    We've already had the disasters and they were caused by the BlairyCammyCleggy centrist politicians ie the potential base of the 'Democrats':

    £1.7tr government debt and an unbalanced economy
    Uncontrolled immigration and stagnant wages
    Unaffordable housing and falling home ownership
    Student tuition fees and intergenerational inequality
    Iraq and general Middle Eastern warmongering

    Would the 'Democrats' have any ideas as to how to clear up the mess they caused or is their message nothing more than 'Privilege before people' ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204
    100 days in Macron is having an attack of the Trumps

    lower approval than Hollande at this point


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2017/08/11/01002-20170811ARTFIG00190-cent-jours-apres-macron-confronte-au-scepticisme-des-francais.php
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    RobD said:

    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.

    This can't be true.

    TSE has 'met him', and assured us that a former right-hand man of Osborne could never be so.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Just listened to the Today interview with Chapman. He came of as an utter loon.

    The former political editor of the Daily Mail came across as an utter loon?

    I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!
    Some of his 'fans' have been having fun exploring his Daily Mail back catalogue.....which may not endear him to other 'Democrats' (sic).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Mr. Brooke, that does seem a little surprising (the scale, I mean).

    Is the decline because he's abandoning electoral promises or because he's keeping them?

    A fall in support itself isn't surprising given he won based on who he was not, rather than who he was. Not wholly dissimilar to the situation here, although with a largely binary choice rather than having the quartet the French presidential race had.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    edited August 12
    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    Mr. Brooke, that does seem a little surprising (the scale, I mean).

    Is the decline because he's abandoning electoral promises or because he's keeping them?

    A fall in support itself isn't surprising given he won based on who he was not, rather than who he was. Not wholly dissimilar to the situation here, although with a largely binary choice rather than having the quartet the French presidential race had.

    seems he's passed loads of irritating measures - stuffing up cigs to 10 euros - but voters think he has done noting decisive
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 352
    Perhaps I am over thinking this, but is going on holiday, having a few drinks, and tweeting like mad for 2 days the best way to found a political movement ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Mr. Brooke, cheers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    Fat_Steve said:

    Perhaps I am over thinking this, but is going on holiday, having a few drinks, and tweeting like mad for 2 days the best way to found a political movement ?

    No, you're not overthinking this.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,176

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Pandering to xenophobia at a time of austerity will always find a ready audience. The Remain camp's mistake was assuming that some of those who led the Leave camp would be able to work out that such a victory would trap them into courses of action that they would bitterly regret. They underestimated their shortsightedness.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Mr. Smithson, shade harsh. The vast majority of people (and pollsters) got the election wrong.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Pandering to xenophobia at a time of austerity will always find a ready audience. The Remain camp's mistake was assuming that some of those who led the Leave camp would be able to work out that such a victory would trap them into courses of action that they would bitterly regret. They underestimated their shortsightedness.
    So Remain basiclly thought everyone should think like they do ?

    You should get out more.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,016
    Fat_Steve said:

    Perhaps I am over thinking this, but is going on holiday, having a few drinks, and tweeting like mad for 2 days the best way to found a political movement ?

    Two words: President Trump.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,996
    Anyone who wants to be in a pro-EU party called The Democrats should simply join the Liberal Democrats and focus on the second part of their name.

    I can't see a space that needs filling by a new centre party.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Pandering to xenophobia at a time of austerity will always find a ready audience. The Remain camp's mistake was assuming that some of those who led the Leave camp would be able to work out that such a victory would trap them into courses of action that they would bitterly regret. They underestimated their shortsightedness.
    So Remain basiclly thought everyone should think like they do ?

    You should get out more.
    If you think Boris Johnson and Michael Gove want to reduce immigration, I've got a bridge that I can sell you.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,016

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Pandering to xenophobia at a time of austerity will always find a ready audience. The Remain camp's mistake was assuming that some of those who led the Leave camp would be able to work out that such a victory would trap them into courses of action that they would bitterly regret. They underestimated their shortsightedness.
    The Remain camp failed to make a positive case for the EU. Theirs was a purely negative campaign. At least Leave offered £350 million for the NHS -- which according to Cummings was the crucial factor. Remain's was the same disastrous, negative strategy that almost lost the Scottish referendum until Gordon Brown intervened at the last minute.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Pandering to xenophobia at a time of austerity will always find a ready audience. The Remain camp's mistake was assuming that some of those who led the Leave camp would be able to work out that such a victory would trap them into courses of action that they would bitterly regret. They underestimated their shortsightedness.
    So Remain basiclly thought everyone should think like they do ?

    You should get out more.
    If you think Boris Johnson and Michael Gove want to reduce immigration, I've got a bridge that I can sell you.
    I have no doubt they dont, but if you were basing youre hopes on Johnson not being an unprincipled careerist I'll sell you your bridge back and some magic beans
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,333

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums
    but they still outwitted Remain
    how do you explain that ?
    The Remain campaign was led and controlled by top Tories, who were not half as clever as they thought they were.
    The Leave campaign was led and controlled by top Tories as well. They had the advantage that they knew the duffers that they were up against.
    They then indulged in their usual strategy of resorting to lies, thus outwitting the Remain Tories.
    It wasn`t difficult.
    And it proves nothing about the country`s future relationship with the EU.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    OGH, you are defending a man who as part of this alleged founding of a political movement, if that's what he's doing, tweeted this:



    I would suggest that's unanswerable evidence that he's at least possessed of appalling judgement.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,523
    edited August 12

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Putting things on buses must been covered in PhD courses - it is the only explanation.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,001

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    We shall certainly soon find out what Chapman is made of. Having upped the ante in the way that he has he must now stand and deliver.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,176

    Mr. Smithson, shade harsh. The vast majority of people (and pollsters) got the election wrong.

    But it is what people said at the time about the polls that were out of line, Survation and the YouGov model, that is most revealing. There was evidence there that CON was faltering but because it didn't for the CON landslide narrative was rubbished by many on here.

    I kept an open mind.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,523
    PeterC said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    We shall certainly soon find out what Chapman is made of. Having upped the ante in the way that he has he must now stand and deliver.
    One of the delicious elements of Twitter is that it reduces the time between ante upping and delivery demands.

    Oh, and that it shows people up for their real, often flawed selves.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    Scott_P said:

    What UKIP had going for it was a single idea 'Out of the EU' - implicit in its name (with a hefty dose of stop immigration thrown in) and a single charismatic spokesman - Farage.

    What do the 'Democrats' have going for them?

    They have a single idea; avert catastrophe.
    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Pandering to xenophobia at a time of austerity will always find a ready audience. The Remain camp's mistake was assuming that some of those who led the Leave camp would be able to work out that such a victory would trap them into courses of action that they would bitterly regret. They underestimated their shortsightedness.
    The Remain camp failed to make a positive case for the EU. Theirs was a purely negative campaign. At least Leave offered £350 million for the NHS -- which according to Cummings was the crucial factor. Remain's was the same disastrous, negative strategy that almost lost the Scottish referendum until Gordon Brown intervened at the last minute.
    One lesson every politician and pundit should learn from the last ten years is that positive campaigns beat negative campaigns.

    In the 2010 leader debates, it was interesting that despite the abuse heaped on the idea, the moment Cameron got his highest approval from watchers was when putting forward his £1 million IHT threshold. His lowest was when he was pointing out that Brown had left us grossly over borrowed when the crisis hit.

    It is unfortunately a lesson May failed to learn, although Macron did. Of course doesn't make much difference in practice to what happens next, but it would surely have made a difference to the result if May had offered pay and tax reform for those under 25.

    (It might be noted here that Cameron's free nursery place for every child, which appears to have been crucial in changing the momentum in 2015, has now practically bankrupted the nursery sector because there is insufficient money to fund the guaranteed places.)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204
    PClipp said:

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums
    but they still outwitted Remain
    how do you explain that ?
    The Remain campaign was led and controlled by top Tories, who were not half as clever as they thought they were.
    The Leave campaign was led and controlled by top Tories as well. They had the advantage that they knew the duffers that they were up against.
    They then indulged in their usual strategy of resorting to lies, thus outwitting the Remain Tories.
    It wasn`t difficult.
    And it proves nothing about the country`s future relationship with the EU.
    and Labour did nothing

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    PeterC said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    We shall certainly soon find out what Chapman is made of. Having upped the ante in the way that he has he must now stand and deliver.
    Is that a reference to possible legal problems? His money or his...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Mr. Doethur, I strongly agree with that point. Right now, saying why you should vote X is more effective, by far, than saying why you shouldn't vote Y.

    Mr. Smithson, as an aside, would you say that apparent outliers in polling are likelier to be correct than taking an average of polls? I think that was the case for both 2015 and 2017.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,001
    Mortimer said:

    PeterC said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    We shall certainly soon find out what Chapman is made of. Having upped the ante in the way that he has he must now stand and deliver.
    One of the delicious elements of Twitter is that it reduces the time between ante upping and delivery demands.

    Oh, and that it shows people up for their real, often flawed selves.
    It has never failed to amaze me ever since we first started using the internet how careless some people are about what they commit to electronic communication. Reputations have been ruined by the click of a mouse.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    Not really analogous, since no one though it would sink in the first place. Brexit, on the other hand....
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,001
    ydoethur said:

    PeterC said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    We shall certainly soon find out what Chapman is made of. Having upped the ante in the way that he has he must now stand and deliver.
    Is that a reference to possible legal problems? His money or his...
    I don't see a legal dimension personally. By stirring up such a twitter storm over a new party that will stop Brexit then his reputation stands to be shredded if nothing much happens.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,176
    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412
    RobD said:

    Not really analogous, since no one though it would sink in the first place. Brexit, on the other hand....

    That's exactly the point. None of the Brexiteers think (or admit to thinking) that Brexit will be catastrophic.

    Doesn't mean they are right
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736

    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,362
    Not buying Chapman's Democrats. TBH I can't think of a much better way to kill off the idea than have it led by someone like him.

    Maybe that's the plan.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,713

    Anyone who wants to be in a pro-EU party called The Democrats should simply join the Liberal Democrats and focus on the second part of their name.

    I can't see a space that needs filling by a new centre party.

    :+1:

    No idea what the purpose of this is, other than the hope that people will rally to something just because it is new.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct - it would take a truly freakish event to sink her, like hitting a bloody great iceberg longways instead of head on. It was the advertisers who dropped the word 'practically', which with hindsight wasn't perhaps the smartest decision in the history of publicity.

    It became important because of course it wasn't true, but then advertisers got away with murder on a regular basis at that time. I once read some numbers of the Railway Gazette from 1911, which advertised 'X's Universal Nostrum'. This was not only guaranteed to cure all ills but had an apparent testimonium from somebody who had been clinically dead before taking it. How that went down with the chapel-going readers of the Gazette I don't know, but it caused me considerable pain and inconvenience trying to suppress hysterical laughter so I wouldn't be thrown out of Warwick University Library.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums

    but they still outwitted Remain

    how do you explain that ?
    Pandering to xenophobia at a time of austerity will always find a ready audience. The Remain camp's mistake was assuming that some of those who led the Leave camp would be able to work out that such a victory would trap them into courses of action that they would bitterly regret. They underestimated their shortsightedness.
    No, the Remain camp's mistake was to not actually campaign for Remain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412
    ydoethur said:


    It became important because of course it wasn't true,

    Like £350m for the NHS...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,302
    edited August 12
    People are taking Chapman way too seriously.

    A few days ago he was tweeting that the plan was to set up the Democrats and force through a new referendum in 2019 which would reverse Brexit.

    Yesterday the plan was for the MP's of the new Democrats party to block Brexit in Parliament, thus we wouldn't need a second referendum.

    There is no "plan". He's just making this all up as he goes along.

    The tweet to Stewert Jackson's wife asking how her husband was getting on in *his* (£115k) job reveals what this is really all about IMO...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,362
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct - it would take a truly freakish event to sink her, like hitting a bloody great iceberg longways instead of head on. It was the advertisers who dropped the word 'practically', which with hindsight wasn't perhaps the smartest decision in the history of publicity.

    It became important because of course it wasn't true, but then advertisers got away with murder on a regular basis at that time. I once read some numbers of the Railway Gazette from 1911, which advertised 'X's Universal Nostrum'. This was not only guaranteed to cure all ills but had an apparent testimonium from somebody who had been clinically dead before taking it. How that went down with the chapel-going readers of the Gazette I don't know, but it caused me considerable pain and inconvenience trying to suppress hysterical laughter so I wouldn't be thrown out of Warwick University Library.
    Vincent Cable apparently interested in Universal Nostrum for Lib Dems.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 894

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Probably his twitter feed (which provides ample evidence) and his lack of judgement in posting a naked photo of himself to his instagram feed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,713
    @GoodwinMJ twitter feed over the last couple of days sets out why Chappers party will not work.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,644
    Entirely agree with David's article. I'd add that I'd never heard of Chapman at all until i read about him on PB - he's not just a Westminster Beltway figure, I think he's a little-known figure even in Westminster. He may be doing an effective job in getting himself a role as a TV interviewer though...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,099
    edited August 12
    To be fair, Remain did put a positive case.

    'Anyone who votes for Leave is a dirty racist.'

    And the motto of the Democrats can be. 'The people have voted and they're wrong.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct - it would take a truly freakish event to sink her, like hitting a bloody great iceberg longways instead of head on. It was the advertisers who dropped the word 'practically', which with hindsight wasn't perhaps the smartest decision in the history of publicity.

    It became important because of course it wasn't true, but then advertisers got away with murder on a regular basis at that time. I once read some numbers of the Railway Gazette from 1911, which advertised 'X's Universal Nostrum'. This was not only guaranteed to cure all ills but had an apparent testimonium from somebody who had been clinically dead before taking it. How that went down with the chapel-going readers of the Gazette I don't know, but it caused me considerable pain and inconvenience trying to suppress hysterical laughter so I wouldn't be thrown out of Warwick University Library.
    Vincent Cable apparently interested in Universal Nostrum for Lib Dems.
    I don't think it claimed to be *that* good!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,176
    TonyE said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Probably his twitter feed (which provides ample evidence) and his lack of judgement in posting a naked photo of himself to his instagram feed.
    ydoethur said:

    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?
    So you think TMay was right to trigger A50 when she had no plan at all over the intricacies involved?

    The two guilty people of this whole saga are Cameron for agreeing to the referendum and TMay. They are the ones should be blamed for making us all poorer and taking away some of our freedoms.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736

    @GoodwinMJ twitter feed over the last couple of days sets out why Chappers party will not work.

    I would have thought Chapman's Twitter feed set that out quite convincingly on its own, without the need for help.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,180
    What I can't work out is how Chapman ever got the job working for Davis. Did Davis personally hire him?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736

    TonyE said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Probably his twitter feed (which provides ample evidence) and his lack of judgement in posting a naked photo of himself to his instagram feed.
    ydoethur said:

    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?
    So you think TMay was right to trigger A50 when she had no plan at all over the intricacies involved?

    The two guilty people of this whole saga are Cameron for agreeing to the referendum and TMay. They are the ones should be blamed for making us all poorer and taking away some of our freedoms.
    This is a genuine question, asked because I want to know the answer. I think you've picked the wrong post to quote, so I'll repeat it here:

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?

    Addendum: Because if it's just Chapman, whether he has insider knowledge or not, whether he's right or not, the sheer ludicrousness of his tweets on the subject mean he will be ignored when he isn't laughed at. He's coming across as a sort of centrist Piers Morgan at the moment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736

    What I can't work out is how Chapman ever got the job working for Davis. Did Davis personally hire him?

    Well he'll struggle to get any job of any sort after this. The nude pictures alone would probably cause most employers to run like crazy.

    I spend a lot of my time reminding children that the errors you make on the internet are there for all time and can be incredibly damaging. About the only positive of this meltdown is it's given me lots of material I can use.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,644
    Incidentally, any "former Mail editor=Tory fanboy" equation is a lazy assumption. I was talking this week to another former senior Mail editor, and he was far more scathing about the Government than I would be. I disagree with them, with exceptions (i actually think Gove is doing a good job). He thinks they're a useless shower. In that, he perhaps does reflect Osborne.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,713
    ydoethur said:

    TonyE said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Probably his twitter feed (which provides ample evidence) and his lack of judgement in posting a naked photo of himself to his instagram feed.
    ydoethur said:

    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?
    So you think TMay was right to trigger A50 when she had no plan at all over the intricacies involved?

    The two guilty people of this whole saga are Cameron for agreeing to the referendum and TMay. They are the ones should be blamed for making us all poorer and taking away some of our freedoms.
    This is a genuine question, asked because I want to know the answer. I think you've picked the wrong post to quote, so I'll repeat it here:

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?

    Addendum: Because if it's just Chapman, whether he has insider knowledge or not, whether he's right or not, the sheer ludicrousness of his tweets on the subject mean he will be ignored when he isn't laughed at. He's coming across as a sort of centrist Piers Morgan at the moment.
    I think Mike means Chapman. Shipman is most likely Shippers of Sunday Times. I doubt he has been tweeting about a new party all week.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527
    CD13 said:

    To be fair, Remain did put a positive case.

    'Anyone who votes for Leave is a dirty racist.'

    And the motto of the Democrats can be. 'The people have voted and they're wrong.'

    "Try again, plebs."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct.
    It was a claim also made - by journalists - of other large liners at the time. Ironically two of the Olympic class sank.....

    On topic, why do Remoaners think predicting catastrophe is going to work this time - when it failed to last time and the predicted catastrophe failed to materialise. Voters were aware there was an economic downside risk when they voted to leave.......
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    TonyE said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Probably his twitter feed (which provides ample evidence) and his lack of judgement in posting a naked photo of himself to his instagram feed.
    ydoethur said:

    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?
    So you think TMay was right to trigger A50 when she had no plan at all over the intricacies involved?

    The two guilty people of this whole saga are Cameron for agreeing to the referendum and TMay. They are the ones should be blamed for making us all poorer and taking away some of our freedoms.
    You are assuming what you are trying to prove there.

    The truly guilty people are those who refused us a referendum on Maastricht or the Euro or the Constitution or Lisbon. Had we had a referendum on any of those, we would have been able to say no to the Project without taking the nuclear option of Leaving.

    Cameron deserves opprobrium not for calling the referendum (democracy is not a bad thing, Mike MSmithson) but for doing so without a plan for a Leave vote. Theresa TMay is just doing what she was told to do by the people.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368
    I'd like to see some polling on James Chapman. What proportion of people have heard of him? Is it more or less than have heard of Tim Farron?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 9,088
    edited August 12

    TonyE said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Probably his twitter feed (which provides ample evidence) and his lack of judgement in posting a naked photo of himself to his instagram feed.
    ydoethur said:

    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?
    So you think TMay was right to trigger A50 when she had no plan at all over the intricacies involved?

    The two guilty people of this whole saga are Cameron for agreeing to the referendum and TMay. They are the ones should be blamed for making us all poorer and taking away some of our freedoms.
    They've not made me poorer.

    I'm much better off that I was 18 months ago and so are probably most other people with a defined contributions pension plan.

    I'm not aware of these freedoms you say I've lost either.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct.
    It was a claim also made - by journalists - of other large liners at the time. Ironically two of the Olympic class sank.....

    On topic, why do Remoaners think predicting catastrophe is going to work this time - when it failed to last time and the predicted catastrophe failed to materialise. Voters were aware there was an economic downside risk when they voted to leave.......
    They don't predict catastrophe - they repeatedly assert that there is a catastrophe and hope if they repeat it enough people will believe them despite reality.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,333

    PClipp said:

    On topic, I would not expect a third party, still less one led by James Chapman. He's obviously enjoyed a few days of settling scores with the assorted loonies, opportunists and careerists that comprise the Leave camp, and exposed many of them for the unpleasant intellectual vacuums that they are. But new parties aren't led by obscure journalists and James Chapman will know that as well as anyone. He's just having holiday fun.

    unpleasant intellectual vacuums
    but they still outwitted Remain
    how do you explain that ?
    The Remain campaign was led and controlled by top Tories, who were not half as clever as they thought they were.
    The Leave campaign was led and controlled by top Tories as well. They had the advantage that they knew the duffers that they were up against.
    They then indulged in their usual strategy of resorting to lies, thus outwitting the Remain Tories.
    It wasn`t difficult.
    And it proves nothing about the country`s future relationship with the EU.
    and Labour did nothing
    Exactly so. Like they did in the AV Referendum, when AV was part of their platform in the previous general election. Labour are quite as useless and pathetic as the Conservatives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    edited August 12

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct.
    It was a claim also made - by journalists - of other large liners at the time. Ironically two of the Olympic class sank.....

    On topic, why do Remoaners think predicting catastrophe is going to work this time - when it failed to last time and the predicted catastrophe failed to materialise. Voters were aware there was an economic downside risk when they voted to leave.......
    It's a bit harsh to blame WSL for the Brittanic being hit by a torpedo. It's also worth remembering Olympic was torpedoed too and survived, although it was probably helped somewhat by the torpedo in question failing to explode!

    There was of course one ship even before the Titanic that survived a series of disastrous accidents including the breaking of its rudder during a major storm and the tearing of a gash 85 feet long and about 8-9 feet wide in its side, partly because it was double hulled. If not unsinkable, it certainly proved to be damned hard to sink, and indeed when it was broken up it took something like two years to scrap. It is quite stunning to reflect this was not even compulsory on oil tankers, let alone other ships, until 1992.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 851
    good analysis.

    To be honest, his new party idea this morning looks like it is in ruins. £480 raised on a crowdfunding website he is promoting.

    There is scant evidence of any real interest in this plan outside media/political circles. And, as other people have pointed out, why would he be the person to lead it? The publicity it is getting around the world is wholly disproportionate to the fact that 'remainers' aren't for the most part interested in this. It is only vaguely interesting because of his background and former position in DEXEU.

    On the other hand, the defection of a handful of tory MP's to a pro EU centist party could be a disaster for Mrs May, at the moment.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,903

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Hmmm - when it comes to forecasting elections it's very brave of you to be casting stones....
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,645
    edited August 12
    ydoethur said:

    Iain Martin's view. He seems to think it's a joke that got out of hand:

    https://reaction.life/worried-james-chapman/

    Since Martin knows Chapman, he might well be right on this one.

    I think David's header is mostly wise too, but I can't go with My guess will be that they do: Chapman would look pretty silly if after all his tweeting (including about the Democrats forming governments: talk about hubris!), nothing at all came of it.

    Why would he look silly? Does anybody seriously expect a PR man and ex-journalist to make serious waves as a shiny new leader on the UK political scene? He's stirred things up, which could well be his main aim here. Maybe prompted others, especially fidgety Remainers, to think their options over a little. He's making the most of the silly season for a brief spell in the spotlight - albeit his wife may feel that it's probably not the most use of their holiday...

    After all this he goes back to work at Bell - Pottinger being paid massive wads of money to defend many of the world's indefensibly brutal, horrific and murderous dictatorships, or for a change of pace, some shady corrupt child-labour-employing "businessman" or another. Multinational corporations can't defend themselves, you know. He's just done a brilliant piece of promotional work gratis for a cause he clearly cares passionately about. It won't "save the country" from the catastrophe he fears, but it might salve his conscience about his day job.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct.
    It was a claim also made - by journalists - of other large liners at the time. Ironically two of the Olympic class sank.....

    On topic, why do Remoaners think predicting catastrophe is going to work this time - when it failed to last time and the predicted catastrophe failed to materialise. Voters were aware there was an economic downside risk when they voted to leave.......
    It's a bit harsh to blame WSL for the Brittanic being hit by a torpedo. It's also worth remembering Olympic was torpedoed too and survived, although it was probably helped somewhat by the torpedo in question failing to explode!

    There was of course one ship even before the Titanic that survived a series of disastrous accidents including the breaking of its rudder during a major storm and the tearing of a gash 85 feet long and about 8-9 feet wide in its side, partly because it was double hulled. If not unsinkable, it certainly proved to be damned hard to sink, and indeed when it was broken up it took something like two years to scrap. It is quite stunning to reflect this was not even compulsory on oil tankers, let alone other ships, until 1992.
    How do you think the unthinkable?

    With an itheberg.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 851

    TonyE said:

    David is spot on in his assessment.

    My sense is that Chapman is both full of hot air - and not as bright or insightful as he thinks he is - and was encouraged to unleash himself and grab the airwaves by George Osborne.

    But, aside from boosting the morale of ultra-Remainers and providing them with entertainment, nothing will come of it and it will be quickly overtaken by events.

    What qualifications do you have to sit in judgement over the "brightness" of Chapman?

    As to forecasting events perhaps we could look at some of the comments that came from you ahead of 2200 in June 8th.
    Probably his twitter feed (which provides ample evidence) and his lack of judgement in posting a naked photo of himself to his instagram feed.
    ydoethur said:

    Forget the third party part of the Shipman narrative and focus on what he has been saying about the government total lack of preparedness by TMay when she invoked A50. That is the reason why Shipman remains dangerous

    Do you mean Chapman? Or is there some other twitterati called Shipman helping him along?
    So you think TMay was right to trigger A50 when she had no plan at all over the intricacies involved?

    The two guilty people of this whole saga are Cameron for agreeing to the referendum and TMay. They are the ones should be blamed for making us all poorer and taking away some of our freedoms.
    Absolutely. Both Cameron and May are guilty of putting party before country. It could well destroy the conservative party.
    Chapman is right on this count.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    Essexit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    But that catastrophe was predicted for a year ago......and so far, the only catastrophic damage has been to the reputations of those who predicted it.......

    The Titanic sailed for hundreds of miles without hitting an iceberg, and is therefore unsinkable...
    In fairness to White Star Line, they never claimed Titanic was unsinkable. They said it was 'practically unsinkable' which was indeed correct.
    It was a claim also made - by journalists - of other large liners at the time. Ironically two of the Olympic class sank.....

    On topic, why do Remoaners think predicting catastrophe is going to work this time - when it failed to last time and the predicted catastrophe failed to materialise. Voters were aware there was an economic downside risk when they voted to leave.......
    It's a bit harsh to blame WSL for the Brittanic being hit by a torpedo. It's also worth remembering Olympic was torpedoed too and survived, although it was probably helped somewhat by the torpedo in question failing to explode!

    There was of course one ship even before the Titanic that survived a series of disastrous accidents including the breaking of its rudder during a major storm and the tearing of a gash 85 feet long and about 8-9 feet wide in its side, partly because it was double hulled. If not unsinkable, it certainly proved to be damned hard to sink, and indeed when it was broken up it took something like two years to scrap. It is quite stunning to reflect this was not even compulsory on oil tankers, let alone other ships, until 1992.
    How do you think the unthinkable?

    With an itheberg.
    Lettuce not start the bad puns so early...

    I have to go shopping. Have a good morning!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    The focus shouldn't be on the idea of a Democrats party. The real issue is that Brexit can, must and will be stopped, and that some mechanism will need to be found to do it. If a new party isn't going to work for various reasons, it means that MPs within the existing party structure need to summon up some courage to start telling some home truths to Leave voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    ydoethur said:

    I spend a lot of my time reminding children that the errors you make on the internet are there for all time and can be incredibly damaging. About the only positive of this meltdown is it's given me lots of material I can use.

    Sadly your pupils will be aware that Donald Trump became President, so they may not believe you.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,180
    Who thinks we should appoint our very own Glenn & Eagles team as joint Chiefs of Staff to PB's Brexit department? It seems as sane as Chapman's employment at Dexeu..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,914
    edited August 12

    Who thinks we should appoint our very own Glenn & Eagles team as joint Chiefs of Staff to PB's Brexit department? It seems as sane as Chapman's employment at Dexeu..

    It would be saner than the appointment of Stewart Jackson as Chief of Staff to David Davis at DExEU.
This discussion has been closed.