Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited August 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

There’s little doubt that if the general election had been on May 4th, local election day, then Mrs. May would have got her landslide. The general election polling that was coming out at the time with leads of 15%/20% was broadly reflected in the way that the country voted in the range of elections on that day. The build up to that Thursday, and her dramatic visit to the Palace on May 3rd and speech in Downing Street afterwards very much set the tone for the elections the following day.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    first, like Huddersfield!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095

    first, like Huddersfield!

    Great result nearly matching Burnley.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    edited August 12
    Second like the second coming of Rooney!...Or even third like the number LFC concede.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    edited August 12
    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424

    first, like Huddersfield!

    Great result nearly matching Burnley.

    I am on both Huddersfield and Burnley in the Handicap win. Quite worried about Leicester. The defence is comedy, though not alone there, but Shakey's subs are incomprehensible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,570

    first, like Huddersfield!

    Great result nearly matching Burnley.

    Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087

    first, like Huddersfield!

    Great result nearly matching Burnley.

    I am on both Huddersfield and Burnley in the Handicap win. Quite worried about Leicester. The defence is comedy, though not alone there, but Shakey's subs are incomprehensible.
    You'll be fine, I think Leicester will be Top 10.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087
    DavidL said:

    first, like Huddersfield!

    Great result nearly matching Burnley.

    Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.
    I was lucky enough to see Barca in the flesh in 2010 and 2011. City are nowhere near that level of performance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,570
    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,570
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    first, like Huddersfield!

    Great result nearly matching Burnley.

    Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.
    I was lucky enough to see Barca in the flesh in 2010 and 2011. City are nowhere near that level of performance.
    De Bruyn is no Ienesta but who is? He is as close as there is today. If there was a chance to take one player from another team it would be him, Kante or Hazard. Pushed , I would go for him.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    edited August 12
    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
    Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,022

    first, like Huddersfield!

    German management....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    first, like Huddersfield!

    Great result nearly matching Burnley.

    Brilliant result but City look unbeatable. Much as it hurts me as a United fan to admit It I even like the way they play. Looks like the Barca of 5 years ago.
    I was lucky enough to see Barca in the flesh in 2010 and 2011. City are nowhere near that level of performance.
    De Bruyn is no Ienesta but who is? He is as close as there is today. If there was a chance to take one player from another team it would be him, Kante or Hazard. Pushed , I would go for him.
    He is very good, I think it would be between him and Kane for me if I could take a player from another team. But the issue with City isn't so much personnel as it is mental strength. Let's see how they get on when the nights start drawing in. By contrast, I think Spurs need to get off to a decent start which they haven't in the last two seasons.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,570
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
    Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
    No, it shows Tories support a leader, even a duff one. They will support the next duff leader too. Especially given the choice Labour are offering.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,319
    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    Which PBTories are advocating for a change of leader, except @TSE?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,624
    edited August 12
    I see the Russian "neutral" athletes at the World Champs get to wear a rather dull kit coloured in red and blue with some whiter bits.

    This strikes me as highly unsatisfactory for several reasons. It is rather unattractive and lacks a certain boldness. By favouring some colours over others, the "neutral" kit has a preference for only some parts of the spectrum. Worse still, the Russian flag is also white, blue and red - barely disguising the fact this is a Russian team in all but name.

    I do, however, have a solution.

    I propose that the "neutrals" should wear kit in the colours of the Rainbow Flag. A rainbow top, rainbow shorts and rainbow socks. Rainbow headbands available too. If an athlete reaches the podium, the silly flag saying "IAAF" (which is a logo, let us face it, not a proper flag) should be replaced with the Rainbow Flag itself.

    It would be bold, striking, aesthetically pleasing, not aligned with any particular flag, and highly inclusive. Russians will love cheering for it. And if one of them wins, at least it would be funny.

    I might also note that the guy in charge of the stadium sound system seems to love playing YMCA. The crowd love it. If a Russian wins, the present situation is that the Official Anthem of the IAAF will be played. But that is quite sad; after all, who can get behind the Offical Anthem of the IAAF? Who can it stir the passion and pride of? Who can claim to enjoy the dirge? But that is not the only choice of song available. You Can Make Another.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    edited August 12
    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
    Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
    No, it shows Tories support a leader, even a duff one. They will support the next duff leader too. Especially given the choice Labour are offering.
    "Tories always support a leader". Quite a number of people voted for the Tories this time are people who hadn't voted for them for many elections - many of them I would argue precisely because of May's personal qualities. Why you would be so confident that they're in the bag for the Tories no matter what, when they didn't even vote for Cameron, is beyond me.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    Which PBTories are advocating for a change of leader, except @TSE?
    Almost every PBTory is suggesting a change of leader before the next election, with the implicit assumption this will automatically lead to an improvement for their electoral fortunes.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    edited August 12
    snip
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,171
    edited August 12
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
    Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
    It also shows that Corbyn is much less popular than his party. So that suggests that if somebody who didn't have unsavoury associations with the IRA, Hamas, Venezuela and Diane Abbott were leading them, not to mention somebody all his own MPs distrust, they would be in a much stronger position to win the next election?

    Edit: although it's interesting to note May's ratings are also lower than her party's, but by 2-3 points rather than 8-9, which rather tells against your earlier point.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    ydoethur said:

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
    Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
    It also shows that Corbyn is much less popular than his party. So that suggests that if somebody who didn't have unsavoury associations with the IRA, Hamas, Venezuela and Diane Abbott were leading them, not to mention somebody all his own MPs distrust, they would be in a much stronger position to win the next election?

    Edit: although it's interesting to note May's ratings are also lower than her party's, but by 2-3 points rather than 8-9, which rather tells against your earlier point.
    No guarantee Labour will pick that person though. :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,171
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Which just goes to show how the Tories are wrong to think all their problems are going to be solved just by changing leader.

    Despite all her flaws, May still pulled in some votes from people who would ordinarily never go near the Tory box on the ballot paper (albeit she pulled in rather less of those votes than was expected at the start of the campaign). Even at the end of the campaign, although people started thinking she was a bit useless and a scaredy-cat, she still didn't really inspire the kind of hugely negative feelings in people that most Tory leaders do. I'm still yet to hear from those PBTories who keep claiming changing leader will be some kind of panacea, WHO they actually think this wonderful new leader is, and HOW exactly they would be more of an electoral asset than May.

    What it shows is that Corbyn is still a loser despite not having lost as badly as expected. Those who think he still has a chance are deluding themselves.
    Sorry, but the polling shows that even now Theresa May is more popular than the Conservatives generally, no? Does it not follow from that that the Tories are likely to decline further if/when she is replaced?
    It also shows that Corbyn is much less popular than his party. So that suggests that if somebody who didn't have unsavoury associations with the IRA, Hamas, Venezuela and Diane Abbott were leading them, not to mention somebody all his own MPs distrust, they would be in a much stronger position to win the next election?

    Edit: although it's interesting to note May's ratings are also lower than her party's, but by 2-3 points rather than 8-9, which rather tells against your earlier point.
    No guarantee Labour will pick that person though. :D
    The point is that with the possible exceptions of McDonnell (Corbyn without the charm) Abbott (who I suspect is too ill anyway) and Thornberry (who apparently still believes she was a colonel in the Army despite being patiently told by the MoD she is wrong) it is not hard to see that any candidate would be an improvement. Rayner may be rather dim but she hasn't the baggage. Long-Bailey and Smith would be worse but also have no chance. Ashworth is capable and popular. Trickett is at least capable. Watson is for some peculiar reason popular.

    Corbyn did far better than anyone including he himself expected. But really under a half-decent leader the Tories would never have dared call the election and would have been there for the taking in 2020. There is no certainty Corbyn can lead Labour back to government and indeed these numbers suggest he probably cannot.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    edited August 12
    @ydoethur

    Corbyn has the aura of a visionary prophet, and that aura is not likely to be transferrable (or to survive experience of power). While he carries a lot of the baggage that you mention, he carries a lot of more positive baggage too, at least in the eyes of many Britons.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,361
    My recollection (which may be wrong) is that incumbents usually lead fairly comfortably in the Best PM polling, because it's easier to visualise them doing it if they're already doing it. A 3-point lead is nothing much if that's the case - but is it? Do others know?
  • My recollection (which may be wrong) is that incumbents usually lead fairly comfortably in the Best PM polling, because it's easier to visualise them doing it if they're already doing it. A 3-point lead is nothing much if that's the case - but is it? Do others know?

    Pretty poor compared to Cameron, who regularly led Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn by double digits.

    For example shortly before the 2015 general election Cameron led Miliband by 14%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 8,498

    It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html

    I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.
  • On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.
  • Alistair said:

    It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html

    I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.
    Yeah, I saw the video too, words fail me.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 8,498

    Alistair said:

    It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html

    I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.
    Yeah, I saw the video too, words fail me.
    Trump has gone with "Both sides are bad"

    Other Republicans are being decent human beings and denouncing Nazism.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    It seems a driver inpired by preachers of hate has rammed a crowd of pedestrians:

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/08/12/emergency-declared-ahead-unite-right-rally-in-virginia.amp.html

    I've seen the video, it was incredibly deliberate.
    Yeah, I saw the video too, words fail me.
    Trump has gone with "Both sides are bad"

    Other Republicans are being decent human beings and denouncing Nazism.
    He also said we should love Nazis too.
  • David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

    Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

    In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • Look Nige, they are trying to take back control of their country, thought you'd have approved.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063

    David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

    Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

    In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02661/cringe-milliband-b_2661184b.jpg
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 4,897

    David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

    Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

    In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


    "abdication" from the man who ran away from a leadership challenge vs Brown.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    Look Nige, they are trying to take back control of their country, thought you'd have approved.

    Disbelief usually signals approval in Farage's lexicon.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    There is no doubt there is huge enthusiasm for Corbyn on the left but the right hates his policies (apart from his acceptance of Brexit) and the centre has huge reservations about him which is why the next general election is so unpredictable
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063
    TSE doing Scott_P's job tonight :)
  • HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
  • MP_SE2MP_SE2 Posts: 77
    edited August 12

    David Miliband makes a dramatic entry into the debate about Britain’s exit from the EU with an impassioned call for politicians from all parties to work together to avoid the Tory high command driving the country “off a cliff”.

    Labour’s former foreign secretary warns that Brexit is an “unparalleled act of economic self-harm” and suggests that it is up to MPs of all political colours to fight back against its worst consequences. The country’s future, he argues, should be decided by another vote on the terms of a final settlement – either by referendum or in parliament.

    In a scathing article in the Observer, Miliband writes: “Delegating to May and Davis, never mind Johnson and Fox, the settlement of a workable alternative to EU membership is a delusion, not just an abdication.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/12/david-miliband-calls-second-vote-on-brexit-deal-europe-britain?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Not really dramatic. Few have heard of him and even fewer care what he has to say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    edited August 12

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
  • See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,171
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,194
    Britain wins Gold in 3rd fastest time ever. Bolt pulls up, sadly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
    Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
  • Honestly that was like Bradman's duck.

    Poor Usain Bolt
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,171
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
    Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
    Shhh!

    Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

    Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    edited August 12

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
    Look, I am not disputing Cameron did better seats wise in 2015 and did a tremendous job winning most seats in 2010 and an overall majority in 2015 but nonetheless May was also able to win over former UKIP 2010 and 2015 voters who Cameron could never have won over while keeping most of those who voted for Dave. Despite her dire campaign and abysmal policies like the dementia tax that should not be forgotten
  • stevefstevef Posts: 256
    Corbyn beware. Labour got 40% because of Brexit and because he piled up votes in seats Labour already held following the tuition fees bribe. He remains a n electoral liability for Labour which could have got rid of him if the Tories had won a majority.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
    Look, I am not disputing Cameron did better seats wise and did a tremendous job winning most seats in 2010 and an overall majority in 2015 but nonetheless May was also able to win over former UKIP 2010 and 2015 voters who Cameron could never have won over while keeping most of those who voted for Dave. Despite her dire campaign and abysmal policies like the dementia tax that should not be forgotten
    She also managed to unite the left behind Jeremy Corbyn.

    Destroying an empire to win a war is no victory, as a famous Emperor once said.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,194
    edited August 12
    Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
    Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
    Shhh!

    Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

    Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...
    Corbyn is a better campaigner than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband I will give him that but he is not in the same league as Tony Blair
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
    Look, I am not disputing Cameron did better seats wise and did a tremendous job winning most seats in 2010 and an overall majority in 2015 but nonetheless May was also able to win over former UKIP 2010 and 2015 voters who Cameron could never have won over while keeping most of those who voted for Dave. Despite her dire campaign and abysmal policies like the dementia tax that should not be forgotten
    She also managed to unite the left behind Jeremy Corbyn.

    Destroying an empire to win a war is no victory, as a famous Emperor once said.
    I think Corbyn did that himself, no Tory leader would have changed that
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,171
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
    Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
    Shhh!

    Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

    Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...
    Corbyn is a better campaigner than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband I will give him that but he is not in the same league as Tony Blair
    Talk about damning with faint praise. Being a better campaigner than Ed Miliband is the electoral equivalent of being less obese than Kim Jong Un. And in fairness, Corbyn has proven three times how formidable a campaigner he is. I just don't think it's enough to carry Labour across the line given the Marmite nature of his leadership.

    I agree, incidentally with your main point. Tony Blair was in many significant ways a political giant, but to slightly misquote Edward Heath on Harold Wilson, I never felt he was a statesman.

    Good night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    AndyJS said:

    Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

    Harold Wilson of course also managed 44% in 1964 and 48% in 1966 and even when he lost in 1970 he got 43%. Corbyn roughly matched the 39% Wilson got in October 1974
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

    No, we'll be staying by the front door.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,319
    edited August 12

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
    You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

    And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%
  • Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
    You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

    And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%
    Yeah, the Tories didn't go negative, they never mentioned Corbyn's past, not once.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,171
    AndyJS said:

    Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

    Not quite. It's unarguable that he was a winner. They think he's not a left-winger. Therefore he doesn't count. In the first part of course they are correct. But since only two left wing leaders have won an majority of more than five seats and the last was over 50 years ago, it would occur to anyone of average intelligence whether ideological purity or actual power is more desirable. For Corbyn, who is not very bright, it is purity because he thinks it will lead to power. For Blair, who is undoubtedly intelligent, it was power and he knew being left wing would make that difficult if not impossible.

    Good night.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    Blair did it twice and Corbyn will assure you he was a Tory...
    Corbyn got to 39.9% himself, but still fell short of the 43% Blair got in 1997 or the 40.7% he got in 2001
    Shhh!

    Remember, he won really, apart from the votes and the seats. He is certainly better at electioneering than Blair. He must be, because Momentum say he is.

    Otherwise you are committing heresy against the One True Jezziah...
    Corbyn is a better campaigner than Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband I will give him that but he is not in the same league as Tony Blair
    Talk about damning with faint praise. Being a better campaigner than Ed Miliband is the electoral equivalent of being less obese than Kim Jong Un. And in fairness, Corbyn has proven three times how formidable a campaigner he is. I just don't think it's enough to carry Labour across the line given the Marmite nature of his leadership.

    I agree, incidentally with your main point. Tony Blair was in many significant ways a political giant, but to slightly misquote Edward Heath on Harold Wilson, I never felt he was a statesman.

    Good night all.
    Ha ha, yes being a better campaigner than Ed Miliband is not too hard and certainly not enough on its own to get to No 10
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,691
    If 12 months ago, any of us had said that Tezzie would barely have a lead over Jezza on Best PM they would have been advised to go and have a lie down.

    During the election campaign not only did voters' opinion of May go down, but their opinion of Corbyn went up.

    What is clear is that both parties will be better off with a different leader next time around.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,691
    Sorry, but how is the Moggster 'skipping a generation' when he is only a couple of years younger than David Cameron?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 2,915

    See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

    No, we'll be staying by the front door.
    Why would the 27 want us? We are trouble.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited August 12

    See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

    No, we'll be staying by the front door.
    When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,319

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
    You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

    And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%
    Yeah, the Tories didn't go negative, they never mentioned Corbyn's past, not once.
    They didn't - the media did. The Tories said very little.

    Clearly, though, going negatively effectively should be taken as read.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    AndyJS said:

    Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

    By the 2022 GE, no Tory leader other than David Cameron will have won a majority for 30 years.. Neither side seems to like their winners much. Toomuch compromise with reality...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 2,915

    See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

    No, we'll be staying by the front door.
    When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?
    Hiroo Onoda? Last Japanese soldier standing. Surrendered in the 70's I think.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    Looks like the great British public is beginning to see some sense with Corbyn, and thank God for that
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Theresa May also became the first Tory leader in 25 years to get over 40% of the vote
    It's all about seats.

    What's the point of getting 42% when your opponent gets 40%?
    You can't control your opponent's votes, without going negative.

    And it's better than getting 38% when your opponent gets 40%
    Yeah, the Tories didn't go negative, they never mentioned Corbyn's past, not once.
    They didn't - the media did. The Tories said very little.

    Clearly, though, going negatively effectively should be taken as read.
    The whole "Strong and Stable" schtick was an implicit attack on Corbyn, making him out to be neither.

    It turned out to be the worst campaign in modern history. The more the Tories turned the spotlight on Jezza, the more the public liked him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    edited August 12

    AndyJS said:

    Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

    By the 2022 GE, no Tory leader other than David Cameron will have won a majority for 30 years.. Neither side seems to like their winners much. Toomuch compromise with reality...
    The patron saint of Tory leaders for Tory voters is of course Maggie Thatcher while the patron saint of Labour leaders for Labour voters is Clement Attlee because both managed to win while remaining ideologically pure, however most of the time the average voter wants a centrist Blair or a Cameron rather than an ideologue
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    ydoethur said:



    The point is that with the possible exceptions of McDonnell (Corbyn without the charm) Abbott (who I suspect is too ill anyway) and Thornberry (who apparently still believes she was a colonel in the Army despite being patiently told by the MoD she is wrong) it is not hard to see that any candidate would be an improvement. Rayner may be rather dim but she hasn't the baggage. Long-Bailey and Smith would be worse but also have no chance. Ashworth is capable and popular. Trickett is at least capable. Watson is for some peculiar reason popular.

    Corbyn did far better than anyone including he himself expected. But really under a half-decent leader the Tories would never have dared call the election and would have been there for the taking in 2020. There is no certainty Corbyn can lead Labour back to government and indeed these numbers suggest he probably cannot.

    How exactly does him being only a few points behind a Tory leader who is probably more popular than her successor, a sign that he "probably cannot" win an election?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,361
    Except it's not the same as Tony's masochism strategy. That was to offer to debate with his most ferocious critics. He didn't offer to change, he tried to persuade them they were mistaken. Because he's pretty good at debate, it was at least half successful.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063
    welshowl said:

    See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

    No, we'll be staying by the front door.
    When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?
    Hiroo Onoda? Last Japanese soldier standing. Surrendered in the 70's I think.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063

    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I believe it was Peter the Punter who said for every day Mrs May remains in office she's giving the Tories two days in opposition.

    Hard to disagree with that, other than it might be closer to 3 days now.

    Except the polling shows that the Tories do better under May against Corbyn than any other Tory leader bar Boris
    Polls? Eh.

    What about real votes, Theresa May became the first Tory leader in 20 years to make a net loss of seats.
    Not in Scotland :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    Entirely OT, but thoroughly recommend the RSC's Queen Anne with Romola Garai; really funny, as well as historically and politically interesting.
  • sladeslade Posts: 488
    The Terriers top of the Premier League - what are the odds on that and for the next few weeks.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 1,981
    To help Mike fight those Jihadists..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    slade said:

    The Terriers top of the Premier League - what are the odds on that and for the next few weeks.

    There next match is Newcastle at home, and I have them down to win. Man City may go top though.

    Leicester must win against Brighton, after that we have horrible fixtures until end Sept.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    welshowl said:

    See, Phil Hammond really does want Theresa May's job

    No, we'll be staying by the front door.
    When we have left the EU how will you cope? Or will the delusion somehow continue?
    Hiroo Onoda? Last Japanese soldier standing. Surrendered in the 70's I think.
    Digby Jones thinks we should see the upside in 100 years' time so he's making a valiant bid to be the last Brexiteer standing.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,624
    https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/08/dnc-hackers-from-russia-used-nsa-developed-attack-code-in-attack-on-hotels/
    Over the past few years, hotel Wi-Fi has emerged as a frequent vehicle for advanced hackers to target people of interest who happen to be connected. In 2014, researchers at security firm Kaspersky Lab said a group it dubbed Dark Hotel had been infecting hotel networks for at least seven years. In a separate report a year later, Kaspersky Lab researchers uncovered evidence suggesting a separate hacking group with ties to the creators of the Stuxnet worm infected hotel conference rooms in an attempt to monitor high-level diplomatic negotiations the US and five other nations held with Iran over its nuclear program.

    Why do "high value targets" like diplomats or top party workers use hotel wi-fi?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 2,624
    I find it as astonishing as these stories from 2008:

    Downing Street aide in Chinese 'honeytrap' sting

    An adviser to Gordon Brown has had his Blackberry phone stolen by a woman suspected of being a Chinese intelligence officer. The aide to the Prime Minister met the woman in a disco in Shanghai during a trip to China with Mr Brown earlier this year. The unnamed official went back to his hotel room with her and the next morning reported that his mobile phone, which also contained his emails, was missing.

    And from 2009:

    Former Boris aide Ian Clement claims he was lured into sex by Chinese spy
    London’s former deputy mayor, Ian Clement, has admitted he was lured by a female Chinese secret agent, who drugged him and ransacked his Beijing hotel room after having sex with him. Clement said he fell for “the oldest trick in the book”, euphemistically known as ‘honey trap’ in intelligence circles, while accompanying UK Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell to Beijing to “build contacts with potential investors” for the 2012 Summer Olympics in London. He said he became acquainted with an attractive Chinese woman at the exclusive official party on the opening night of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, and had a few drinks with her. He then invited her to his hotel room, where he eventually became unconscious. Upon waking up, several hours later, he found that “the woman had rifled through confidential documents and downloaded details about how the capital is run from his BlackBerry Smartphone”. Interestingly, Clement said that he and the rest of the British official delegation to the Beijing Olympics had been briefed by MI6 prior to their trip and specifically warned that the Chinese Ministry of State Security often use honey traps to get information from visiting foreign officials.

    Was British diplomat set up by the Russian secret service?

    Yesterday, a four-minute video surfaced featuring 37-year-old British diplomat James Hudson, entitled "Adventures of Mr Hudson in Russia". It shows the deputy consul general in Ekaterinburg cavorting with two prostitutes. He has since resigned. ... It has been suggested that the diplomat might have been lured into a "honey trap" by the Russian intelligence service FSB, the successor to the KGB, with the aim of embarrassing the British Government.

    Do people never learn to take even basic precautions, following which should be part of their jobs?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    Nice evening out at Surprise View here. Clear for once
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,361
    HYUFD said:


    The patron saint of Tory leaders for Tory voters is of course Maggie Thatcher while the patron saint of Labour leaders for Labour voters is Clement Attlee because both managed to win while remaining ideologically pure, however most of the time the average voter wants a centrist Blair or a Cameron rather than an ideologue

    Attlee wasn't seen as at all ideologically pure at the time - he had a long-running feud with left-wingers including Harold Laski on the NEC, culminating in his famous put down - "A period of silence from Mr Laski would be appreciated."

    Curiously, my extremely non-political mother met both Laski and the Webbs, who moved in similar circles (I think the London upper middle classes were mostly familiar with each other, even when politically divided). She thought Laski was charming - he seems to have been a bit like Corbyn with his gentle idealism, so gentle and politely interested in her life that my mum didn't actually realise that he was interested in politics. She found the Webbs tiresomely intense.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 1,981
    This place has really become weird.

    @MikeSmithson used to ban people for calling other people racist. He now himself calls leavers jihadists. On the same thread that he attacks a regular, intelligent poster for questioning Chapman, a fellow Remainer's intelligence.

    Meanwhile @AlastairMeeks attacks posters for questioning Chapman's sanity, at the same time as calling leavers xenophobic loons.

    @TheScreamingEagles has done threads using polling to prove that leavers have dirty underpants, remainers love bum sex (this may have been Smithson), and that everyone who doesn't hate May has a tiny brain.

    I hope you'll get back to intelligent political discussion soon x
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    This place has really become weird.

    @MikeSmithson used to ban people for calling other people racist. He now himself calls leavers jihadists. On the same thread that he attacks a regular, intelligent poster for questioning Chapman, a fellow Remainer's intelligence.

    Meanwhile @AlastairMeeks attacks posters for questioning Chapman's sanity, at the same time as calling leavers xenophobic loons.

    @TheScreamingEagles has done threads using polling to prove that leavers have dirty underpants, remainers love bum sex (this may have been Smithson), and that everyone who doesn't hate May has a tiny brain.

    I hope you'll get back to intelligent political discussion soon x

    Its depressing but true. This place has jumped the shark.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,797
    GeoffM said:

    This place has really become weird.

    @MikeSmithson used to ban people for calling other people racist. He now himself calls leavers jihadists. On the same thread that he attacks a regular, intelligent poster for questioning Chapman, a fellow Remainer's intelligence.

    Meanwhile @AlastairMeeks attacks posters for questioning Chapman's sanity, at the same time as calling leavers xenophobic loons.

    @TheScreamingEagles has done threads using polling to prove that leavers have dirty underpants, remainers love bum sex (this may have been Smithson), and that everyone who doesn't hate May has a tiny brain.

    I hope you'll get back to intelligent political discussion soon x

    Its depressing but true. This place has jumped the shark.

    Dude: you have been among the first to put the boot in to people (and peoples) you don't like. What was it you called Spaniards, again?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,277
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Who is the only Labour leader to win an election since 1974? Tony Blair. And that will probably remain the case until 2022, which is 48 years. But Corbynistas think he's a loser.

    Harold Wilson of course also managed 44% in 1964 and 48% in 1966 and even when he lost in 1970 he got 43%. Corbyn roughly matched the 39% Wilson got in October 1974
    Corbyn managed 41% on a GB basis - and 40% across the UK. Comparisons with 1964 and 1966 need to take account of the fact that there were then far fewer third party candidates - even the Liberals contested only circa 50% of the seats - with the result that both Labour and Tory vote shares were artificially high.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,171
    Danny565 said:

    ydoethur said:



    The point is that with the possible exceptions of McDonnell (Corbyn without the charm) Abbott (who I suspect is too ill anyway) and Thornberry (who apparently still believes she was a colonel in the Army despite being patiently told by the MoD she is wrong) it is not hard to see that any candidate would be an improvement. Rayner may be rather dim but she hasn't the baggage. Long-Bailey and Smith would be worse but also have no chance. Ashworth is capable and popular. Trickett is at least capable. Watson is for some peculiar reason popular.

    Corbyn did far better than anyone including he himself expected. But really under a half-decent leader the Tories would never have dared call the election and would have been there for the taking in 2020. There is no certainty Corbyn can lead Labour back to government and indeed these numbers suggest he probably cannot.

    How exactly does him being only a few points behind a Tory leader who is probably more popular than her successor, a sign that he "probably cannot" win an election?
    As has been noted upthread, PMs always have an advantage over those who are not PM simply by being in office. Almost every new leader has seen their ratings rise dramatically on appointment/election - May herself, Brown, Blair (touching 93% at one point in 1997) Major (zero to hero in six months in the polls) Thatcher (who had trailed Callaghan throughout the election). I can't remember it happening for Cameron, but he would be the exception and the circumstances were unusual.

    So I'm afraid your point is special pleading. These ratings for both are low by historical standards and there is little doubt that replacements would do better. The key point to take away is that Corbyn despite all the chest-beating and hubris is still significantly less popular than May and is still dragging down Labour. Until that changes it makes the task of winning an election significantly more difficult for you.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,583
    Mortimer said:

    Entirely OT, but thoroughly recommend the RSC's Queen Anne with Romola Garai; really funny, as well as historically and politically interesting.

    Good to read that as I will be seeing the play in less than two weeks.
Sign In or Register to comment.