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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In head-to-heads Johnson comfortably beats main contenders in

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited September 29 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In head-to-heads Johnson comfortably beats main contenders in latest YouGov CON members’ poll

Good YouGov infographic from its CON members' poll for the Times. The top 3 in head to heads pic.twitter.com/D5LTJKPhxG

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • The stop Boris will win.
  • I’m still laying Boris. It was profitable last time.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,017
    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.
  • So khan now wants to go after middle clash folk with their wood burning stoves....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    I also suspect they overestimate Johnson's popularity with swing voters, so he is seen as a safe choice.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 206

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 174
    FPT-

    Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.
  • From last thread

    Comment re labour

    "The many are for the feudal."

    Brilliant
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 206

    From last thread

    Comment re labour

    "The many are for the feudal."

    Brilliant

    Reposting here so that more can enjoy:

    https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1

    "I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."

    "I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."

    "It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."

    "I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"

    "One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.

    Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."

    "The many are for the feudal."

    LOL!
  • The other aspect of this polling is that it is likely to embolden Boris and his allies to topple Mrs May PDQ.
  • The other aspect of this polling is that it is likely to embolden Boris and his allies to topple Mrs May PDQ.

    Give over - George is not coming back
  • blueblue said:

    From last thread

    Comment re labour

    "The many are for the feudal."

    Brilliant

    Reposting here so that more can enjoy:

    https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1

    "I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."

    "I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."

    "It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."

    "I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"

    "One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.

    Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."

    "The many are for the feudal."

    LOL!
    Really enjoyed your post
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,199
    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    Is it really that simple. Wouldn't the question be 'why haven't you done that already?'
  • HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,017
    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    If the Conservatives are going to try to refight the 2017 campaign in 2022, they are going to be hammered. It's not going to be fought on the same topics and right now Labour are choosing the topics that it's going to be fought on.
  • The other aspect of this polling is that it is likely to embolden Boris and his allies to topple Mrs May PDQ.

    Give over - George is not coming back
    What the heck are you talking about?

    I didn't mention Mr Osborne, and I've said countless times he's not coming back, his political career is over.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    Interesting twitter thread on Parliament Act and Brexit going on at moment:

  • blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    If the Conservatives are going to try to refight the 2017 campaign in 2022, they are going to be hammered. It's not going to be fought on the same topics and right now Labour are choosing the topics that it's going to be fought on.
    Quite relaxed about that - the more they are put under the spotlight the better. That was the missing element from the GE
  • HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    Not going to happen. Ruth wants First Minister
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    FPT
    philiph said:

    FF43 said:

    So it looks like only Ruth can span the divide in the Tory party.

    The divide in the Tory party can only be spanned when there is consensus on a realistic settlement with the EU. They are lightyears away from that.
    I would suggest it will be purely irrelevant and academic after the deal (or no deal) with the EU, so of no relevance after March 2019.

    This is also applicable to the Labour party.
    Article 50 is simply an opportunity to agree stuff while we are still members and within a two year window. The issues and the debate don't stop on the arbitrary date of March 2019. Mrs May's objective, clearly, is to get through to March 2019 in one piece, announce that Britain has exited the EU without too much damage, and leave consideration of how to conduct business with the EU and other parties until afterwards.

    But you're right, Labour need to face the same reality.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 206

    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    Is it really that simple. Wouldn't the question be 'why haven't you done that already?'
    The answer would have been that the Tories have a great track record of taking millions of people out of paying tax from 2010 onwards, and would now ease the burden further on the struggling middle.

    The electorate was longing for the Tories to promise them something other than a kick in the teeth - they believed Corbyn's insane pledges fgs, just because they wanted them to be true.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,277
    FF43 said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    I also suspect they overestimate Johnson's popularity with swing voters, so he is seen as a safe choice.
    I agree. Boris only narrowly beat Livingstone in 2012 and would have lost to other Labour candidates.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.
  • The other aspect of this polling is that it is likely to embolden Boris and his allies to topple Mrs May PDQ.

    Give over - George is not coming back
    What the heck are you talking about?

    I didn't mention Mr Osborne, and I've said countless times he's not coming back, his political career is over.
    Reference to 'George' was a wind up
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited September 29
    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    Is it really that simple. Wouldn't the question be 'why haven't you done that already?'
    The answer would have been that the Tories have a great track record of taking millions of people out of paying tax from 2010 onwards, and would now ease the burden further on the struggling middle.

    The electorate was longing for the Tories to promise them something other than a kick in the teeth - they believed Corbyn's insane pledges fgs, just because they wanted them to be true.
    Throw in a policy of an extra ohhhhhhhh let's say £200-300 million a week for the nhs by 2022 and the Tories could deployed bojo to spread the word, perhaps with a bus or something.

    That policy would have won a huge number of middle aged waverers, which as has to be repeated is why Tories didn't win (not the yuff surge).
  • The other aspect of this polling is that it is likely to embolden Boris and his allies to topple Mrs May PDQ.

    Give over - George is not coming back
    What the heck are you talking about?

    I didn't mention Mr Osborne, and I've said countless times he's not coming back, his political career is over.
    Reference to 'George' was a wind up
    Nope, you were talking shite, and were caught out, but you can't admit you were wrong, noted.
  • The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 174
    edited September 29

    So khan now wants to go after middle clash folk with their wood burning stoves....

    Well done him. Almost makes me (a lifelong Tory) want to vote for him.

    Why on earth would anyone consider it acceptable to install such a hugely polluting device in a house in a densely populated city? On some measures wood fires are more polluting than coal, and far more so than standard gas/electric central heating. It is pure selfishness, against the spirit of the original clean air acts and strange that no-one has acted on this sooner.

    Edit - the growing popularity of wood burning stoves is reportedly also causing increasing problems of deforestation across the UK
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    While I do think it more likely than not than Corbyn will be the next PM, do we really know if people are showing complacency or not until after the event?

    HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    SalmoGE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    You really think there's even a slither of a chance, in this day and age, that the convention that the PM be in the lower house is going to be ignored, even accepting there is no legal reason they cannot?
    blueblue said:

    From last thread

    Comment re labour

    "The many are for the feudal."

    Brilliant

    Reposting here so that more can enjoy:

    https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1

    "I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."

    "I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."

    "It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."

    "I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"

    "One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.

    Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."

    "The many are for the feudal."

    LOL!
    I do find the adulation stuff pretty creepy to be honest. I know no party is immune from overly effusive praise of a seemingly successful leader at times, but the apparently genuine nature of some of the more over the top stuff makes me, a very awkward British person, a little uncomfortable.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,017

    Interesting twitter thread on Parliament Act and Brexit going on at moment:

    I have to say that I think this is not quite the key point that it is being made out to be. As a matter of politics, the House of Lords cannot be seen to be blocking Brexit. As a matter of timing, the Government needs the Withdrawal Bill through sooner rather than later anyway, making the Parliament Act moot.

    There are many problems for the Withdrawal Bill (and in particular the Henry VIII provisions), but this isn't the most important. The most important is the lack of a majority in the House of Commons for the Government.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    OT, but last day of Sir Edric's Kingdom (came out a week ago) being cut-price:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sir-Edrics-Kingdom-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B0757PMR7F

    Mr. Borough, indeed. It's an alarming situation.
  • The other aspect of this polling is that it is likely to embolden Boris and his allies to topple Mrs May PDQ.

    Give over - George is not coming back
    What the heck are you talking about?

    I didn't mention Mr Osborne, and I've said countless times he's not coming back, his political career is over.
    Reference to 'George' was a wind up
    Nope, you were talking shite, and were caught out, but you can't admit you were wrong, noted.
    Calm down - I thought you are a fellow conservative
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,046
    FF43 said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    I also suspect they overestimate Johnson's popularity with swing voters, so he is seen as a safe choice.
    I suspect tbat if it was Jeremy vs Boris it would be a choice between two Marmite candidates and ‘someone else’ would do extremely well.
    If the contest is in 2022, then Jo Swinson would be a very attractive option.
  • kle4 said:

    While I do think it more likely than not than Corbyn will be the next PM, do we really know if people are showing complacency or not until after the event?

    HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    SalmoGE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    You really think there's even a slither of a chance, in this day and age, that the convention that the PM be in the lower house is going to be ignored, even accepting there is no legal reason they cannot?
    blueblue said:

    From last thread

    Comment re labour

    "The many are for the feudal."

    Brilliant

    Reposting here so that more can enjoy:

    https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1

    "I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."

    "I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."

    "It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."

    "I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"

    "One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.

    Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."

    "The many are for the feudal."

    LOL!
    I do find the adulation stuff pretty creepy to be honest. I know no party is immune from overly effusive praise of a seemingly successful leader at times, but the apparently genuine nature of some of the more over the top stuff makes me, a very awkward British person, a little uncomfortable.
    Only in an national emergency. A disorderly/WTO Brexit might count.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 206

    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    If the Conservatives are going to try to refight the 2017 campaign in 2022, they are going to be hammered. It's not going to be fought on the same topics and right now Labour are choosing the topics that it's going to be fought on.
    Of course I agree - fighting the last war is a recipe for disaster. But since we can't out-promise Corbyn's hundreds of billions, it seems we have two choices - either fight on a "sane Labout platform", e.g. reduced fees, not no fees and no student debt, or put forward distinctive Tory ideas to improve people's lives, e.g. scrap overseas aid and divert every penny to the NHS. The former on its own is a bit weak because why vote for an imitation when you can have full fat Labour, but in combination with the latter it might have a chance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,691
    I thought that Rudd would get the backing of all of the Ruthites and come out on top. The head to heads show my supposition to be misguided.

    What we need is a set of matchups against the Moggster to see the true colours of the Tory rank and file.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    Things are moving in only one direction. Unless May can turn Brexit into a success and assuming she either improves her image or the Tories manage a stemless transition to a new leader who is better at campaigning, the next election will be fought by the Tories facing all the problems they did in 2017, only amplified because anti-austerity forces will be even stronger, the base will be even tireder, and floaters will be even more willing to give someone else a shot after 12 years of Tory government. If the election is before 2017 then labour have an even better chance unless a new Tory leader gets a polling bump that is borne out by the voters, since Labour are energised, and almost all dissenters are now grabbing ankle for Oh Jeremy.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456

    The other aspect of this polling is that it is likely to embolden Boris and his allies to topple Mrs May PDQ.

    If Bojo has any sense he will realise that he does not have unlimited time at his disposal; the Moggasm and the appearance on these lists of the likes of Tugendhat and Mercer should tell him that. If May promotes any of that lot it will look a lot like a tank on the BoJo lawn.

    Plus I want him to resign from the cabinet before anyone else does.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,046

    kle4 said:

    While I do think it more likely than not than Corbyn will be the next PM, do we really know if people are showing complacency or not until after the event?

    HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    SalmoGE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    You really think there's even a slither of a chance, in this day and age, that the convention that the PM be in the lower house is going to be ignored, even accepting there is no legal reason they cannot?
    blueblue said:

    From last thread

    Comment re labour

    "The many are for the feudal."

    Brilliant

    Reposting here so that more can enjoy:

    https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1

    "I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."

    "I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."

    "It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."

    "I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"

    "One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.

    Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."

    "The many are for the feudal."

    LOL!
    I do find the adulation stuff pretty creepy to be honest. I know no party is immune from overly effusive praise of a seemingly successful leader at times, but the apparently genuine nature of some of the more over the top stuff makes me, a very awkward British person, a little uncomfortable.
    Only in an national emergency. A disorderly/WTO Brexit might count.
    I wait for the singing of ‘Oh Vince Cable’ with a considerable amount of dread.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    Is it really that simple. Wouldn't the question be 'why haven't you done that already?'
    The answer would have been that the Tories have a great track record of taking millions of people out of paying tax from 2010 onwards, and would now ease the burden further on the struggling middle.

    The electorate was longing for the Tories to promise them something other than a kick in the teeth - they believed Corbyn's insane pledges fgs, just because they wanted them to be true.
    The problem is that the Conservatives threw away any reputation for being cautious and competent with Brexit. Maybe exciting and optimistic beats cautious and competent. But Corbyn wins on those grounds. If you choose fantasy, you would want the inspiring one. The Conservatives have a serious brand issue. No-one knows what they stand for nowadays. With Corbyn, it's clear.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    King Cole, disagree strongly with your assessment.

    In a binary choice, the "anti-" vote becomes more powerful and translates more directly into the opposing realistic choice. The Lib Dems do well when there's a cosy general consensus. Regardless of Damien Green's dreams, people won't waste a vote on continental beige when they're worried about deranged socialism or baby-eating Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    justin124 said:

    FF43 said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    I also suspect they overestimate Johnson's popularity with swing voters, so he is seen as a safe choice.
    I agree. Boris only narrowly beat Livingstone in 2012 and would have lost to other Labour candidates.
    I think it was still a good achievement, but even so it has been 5 years since then, and generally I find most people are no longer as keen on Johnson as they once were. It's not even a knock on him really, but he has been high profile for a long time now.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 174
    edited September 29

    HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    For a 19th century PM maybe. Today it would be realistically impossible and lead swiftly to her removal or defeat, as I suspect you well know. Even in 1963 it was not considered acceptable for Home to be PM from the Lords.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    I have to say that I think this is not quite the key point that it is being made out to be. As a matter of politics, the House of Lords cannot be seen to be blocking Brexit. As a matter of timing, the Government needs the Withdrawal Bill through sooner rather than later anyway, making the Parliament Act moot.

    There are many problems for the Withdrawal Bill (and in particular the Henry VIII provisions), but this isn't the most important. The most important is the lack of a majority in the House of Commons for the Government.

    I think that might be understating it. The problem with the Withdrawal Bill is that if you strip out the Henry VIII powers, all sorts of things need to be made explicit, not least leaving the single market, and changing the devolution settlement to maintain a UK single market.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 174
    edited September 29
    Deleted repeat post
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,046

    King Cole, disagree strongly with your assessment.

    In a binary choice, the "anti-" vote becomes more powerful and translates more directly into the opposing realistic choice. The Lib Dems do well when there's a cosy general consensus. Regardless of Damien Green's dreams, people won't waste a vote on continental beige when they're worried about deranged socialism or baby-eating Tories.

    A plague on both your houses?
  • kle4 said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    Things are moving in only one direction. Unless May can turn Brexit into a success and assuming she either improves her image or the Tories manage a stemless transition to a new leader who is better at campaigning, the next election will be fought by the Tories facing all the problems they did in 2017, only amplified because anti-austerity forces will be even stronger, the base will be even tireder, and floaters will be even more willing to give someone else a shot after 12 years of Tory government. If the election is before 2017 then labour have an even better chance unless a new Tory leader gets a polling bump that is borne out by the voters, since Labour are energised, and almost all dissenters are now grabbing ankle for Oh Jeremy.
    And the Tories have the Brexit millstone around their neck. They will get the blame for failing to deliver on the impossible promises many of them have made.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 206
    FF43 said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    Is it really that simple. Wouldn't the question be 'why haven't you done that already?'
    The answer would have been that the Tories have a great track record of taking millions of people out of paying tax from 2010 onwards, and would now ease the burden further on the struggling middle.

    The electorate was longing for the Tories to promise them something other than a kick in the teeth - they believed Corbyn's insane pledges fgs, just because they wanted them to be true.
    The problem is that the Conservatives threw away any reputation for being cautious and competent with Brexit. Maybe exciting and optimistic beats cautious and competent. But Corbyn wins on those grounds. If you choose fantasy, you would want the inspiring one. The Conservatives have a serious brand issue. No-one knows what they stand for nowadays. With Corbyn, it's clear.
    That last point has to be the next leader's top priority. To be fair, once Brexit is finally resolved one way or another, then a return to clear, "normal" Conservatism may finally (please God!) be possible.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,017

    I have to say that I think this is not quite the key point that it is being made out to be. As a matter of politics, the House of Lords cannot be seen to be blocking Brexit. As a matter of timing, the Government needs the Withdrawal Bill through sooner rather than later anyway, making the Parliament Act moot.

    There are many problems for the Withdrawal Bill (and in particular the Henry VIII provisions), but this isn't the most important. The most important is the lack of a majority in the House of Commons for the Government.

    I think that might be understating it. The problem with the Withdrawal Bill is that if you strip out the Henry VIII powers, all sorts of things need to be made explicit, not least leaving the single market, and changing the devolution settlement to maintain a UK single market.
    That is what I meant by the Henry VIII provisions being a particular problem.

    It's not the Parliament Act that's giving the Government that headache though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    blueblue said:

    FF43 said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    Is it really that simple. Wouldn't the question be 'why haven't you done that already?'
    The answer would have been that the Tories have a great track record of taking millions of people out of paying tax from 2010 onwards, and would now ease the burden further on the struggling middle.

    The electorate was longing for the Tories to promise them something other than a kick in the teeth - they believed Corbyn's insane pledges fgs, just because they wanted them to be true.
    The problem is that the Conservatives threw away any reputation for being cautious and competent with Brexit. Maybe exciting and optimistic beats cautious and competent. But Corbyn wins on those grounds. If you choose fantasy, you would want the inspiring one. The Conservatives have a serious brand issue. No-one knows what they stand for nowadays. With Corbyn, it's clear.
    That last point has to be the next leader's top priority. To be fair, once Brexit is finally resolved one way or another, then a return to clear, "normal" Conservatism may finally (please God!) be possible.
    So that'll be around 2035 then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 57,213
    edited September 29
    HHemmelig said:

    HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    For a 19th century PM maybe. Today it would be realistically impossible and lead swiftly to her removal or defeat, as I suspect you well know. Even in 1963 it was not considered acceptable for Home to be PM from the Lords.
    The country are up for a bit of noblesse oblige, the country voted for an Old Etonian as PM twice, which is only one step down for a PM for The Lords.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    It does look like Mrs May will improve her very grudging offer on citizens rights. These talks are one-sided and possibly humiliating for us, but they could deliver something good. The instinct behind Brexit is to throw up barriers and restrict liberties, so I am in favour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797

    I’m still laying Boris. It was profitable last time.

    Definitely with you there. Lay the favourite, and keep laying Boris.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 174

    kle4 said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    Things are moving in only one direction. Unless May can turn Brexit into a success and assuming she either improves her image or the Tories manage a stemless transition to a new leader who is better at campaigning, the next election will be fought by the Tories facing all the problems they did in 2017, only amplified because anti-austerity forces will be even stronger, the base will be even tireder, and floaters will be even more willing to give someone else a shot after 12 years of Tory government. If the election is before 2017 then labour have an even better chance unless a new Tory leader gets a polling bump that is borne out by the voters, since Labour are energised, and almost all dissenters are now grabbing ankle for Oh Jeremy.
    And the Tories have the Brexit millstone around their neck. They will get the blame for failing to deliver on the impossible promises many of them have made.
    The Tories cocking up Brexit will also be blamed by PM Corbyn for the disastrous consequences of his policies, and enough people will believe him to keep him in place for a few years.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 875
    blueblue said:


    To be fair, once Brexit is finally resolved one way or another, then a return to clear, "normal" Conservatism may finally (please God!) be possible.

    It's never going to be finally resolved. The rejoin campaign will blame every single thing that goes wrong on Brexit for decades to come.

  • Hmm, 46% vs 39% is not really a 'comfortable' lead for Boris vs DD, in a poll which is very hard to get right in a contest which isn't yet formally started. Even so, if it's believed to be roughly right, it's a bit of a self-contradicting prophecy: the possibility of Boris boosts the stability of May.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
  • FF43 said:

    It does look like Mrs May will improve her very grudging offer on citizens rights. These talks are one-sided and possibly humiliating for us, but they could deliver something good. The instinct behind Brexit is to throw up barriers and restrict liberties, so I am in favour.

    The EU27 offer is more grudging. Odd that you haven't noticed this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797

    Interesting twitter thread on Parliament Act and Brexit going on at moment:

    That sounds correct. But why would the Lords reject the Bill when it comes up?

    Seek to amend it, almost certainly, but rejecting it means we leave the EU with no deal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    King Cole, I don't think so. Corbyn will have the enthusiastic (if ill-informed) on-side, Conservatives will have those who either remember or have read of the woes of socialism on theirs.

    The Lib Dems neither achieve the Venezuelan paradise, nor prevent it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    FF43 said:

    It does look like Mrs May will improve her very grudging offer on citizens rights. These talks are one-sided and possibly humiliating for us, but they could deliver something good. The instinct behind Brexit is to throw up barriers and restrict liberties, so I am in favour.

    The EU27 offer is more grudging. Odd that you haven't noticed this.
    I didn't notice it because it's not the case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    HHemmelig said:

    kle4 said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    Things are moving in only one direction. Unless May can turn Brexit into a success and assuming she either improves her image or the Tories manage a stemless transition to a new leader who is better at campaigning, the next election will be fought by the Tories facing all the problems they did in 2017, only amplified because anti-austerity forces will be even stronger, the base will be even tireder, and floaters will be even more willing to give someone else a shot after 12 years of Tory government. If the election is before 2017 then labour have an even better chance unless a new Tory leader gets a polling bump that is borne out by the voters, since Labour are energised, and almost all dissenters are now grabbing ankle for Oh Jeremy.
    And the Tories have the Brexit millstone around their neck. They will get the blame for failing to deliver on the impossible promises many of them have made.
    The Tories cocking up Brexit will also be blamed by PM Corbyn for the disastrous consequences of his policies, and enough people will believe him to keep him in place for a few years.
    Blaming the last government can last you a very long time, more than a few years. As I am fond of noting, Gordon Brown in his final year once at PMQs blamed the last Tory government, then 13 years prior, for something or other as a counter to some opposition question. Certainly the Tories have still be doing 7 years from the last Labour government as well. How much it is believed, well, that's hard to say, but given Oh Jeremy's deft positioning on the Brexit issue, he could manage it for some time.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 875

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    Do travel agent still even exist?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,691

    kle4 said:

    While I do think it more likely than not than Corbyn will be the next PM, do we really know if people are showing complacency or not until after the event?

    HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    SalmoGE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    You really think there's even a slither of a chance, in this day and age, that the convention that the PM be in the lower house is going to be ignored, even accepting there is no legal reason they cannot?
    blueblue said:

    From last thread

    Comment re labour

    "The many are for the feudal."

    Brilliant

    Reposting here so that more can enjoy:

    https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1

    "I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."

    "I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."

    "It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."

    "I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"

    "One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.

    Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."

    "The many are for the feudal."

    LOL!
    I do find the adulation stuff pretty creepy to be honest. I know no party is immune from overly effusive praise of a seemingly successful leader at times, but the apparently genuine nature of some of the more over the top stuff makes me, a very awkward British person, a little uncomfortable.
    Only in an national emergency. A disorderly/WTO Brexit might count.
    I wait for the singing of ‘Oh Vince Cable’ with a considerable amount of dread.
    How about:

    "We've got Paddy Paddy Paddy Paddy Ashdown in the Lords, in the Lords"
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 149

    HHemmelig said:

    FPT-

    Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.

    You don't have to be a party leader or an MP to be PM.

    Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
    We haven't had a PM who wasn't an MP since 1902 - discounting Alec Douglas Home's few hours before he renounced his peerage on becoming PM in 1962.

    Only one nation I think Davidson wants to lead - and that is Scotland.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,017
    The Conservatives urgently need to think about what their pitch is going to be to Remain voters. In the long term, they aren't going to keep Leave voters just because they implemented Brexit. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to be doing their level best to keep Remain voters alienated from them. This wouldn't be a problem if Remain voters were grudgingly accepting that they made the wrong choice a year ago but poll after poll shows that they don't think any such thing.

    The Conservatives can't afford to write off roughly half the electorate for the indefinite future. So what's their strategy going to be to get these people - many of whom are actively horrified at what the Conservatives are currently doing - to consider voting for them?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    I think it a stretch to go from 'nationalisation is popular' to 'Corbynism is popular' as if the two are completely identical. Plenty of Labour policies were popular ideas, not all would get people to vote for the party. By that chart alone if nationalism=corbynism he should have won a landslide.
  • The Conservatives urgently need to think about what their pitch is going to be to Remain voters. In the long term, they aren't going to keep Leave voters just because they implemented Brexit. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to be doing their level best to keep Remain voters alienated from them. This wouldn't be a problem if Remain voters were grudgingly accepting that they made the wrong choice a year ago but poll after poll shows that they don't think any such thing.

    The Conservatives can't afford to write off roughly half the electorate for the indefinite future. So what's their strategy going to be to get these people - many of whom are actively horrified at what the Conservatives are currently doing - to consider voting for them?

    Strange question. The strategy is to get a good deal with our EU friends.

    It may not work, of course - getting a good deal depends on what the other side want - but it's a perfectly reasonable aim.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,113

    King Cole, disagree strongly with your assessment.

    In a binary choice, the "anti-" vote becomes more powerful and translates more directly into the opposing realistic choice. The Lib Dems do well when there's a cosy general consensus. Regardless of Damien Green's dreams, people won't waste a vote on continental beige when they're worried about deranged socialism or baby-eating Tories.

    Morris I think you have hit the nail on the head very succinctly .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    Mr. Borough, do we have similar bar charts for support for seizing assets from pension funds? Just curious.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,017

    The Conservatives urgently need to think about what their pitch is going to be to Remain voters. In the long term, they aren't going to keep Leave voters just because they implemented Brexit. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to be doing their level best to keep Remain voters alienated from them. This wouldn't be a problem if Remain voters were grudgingly accepting that they made the wrong choice a year ago but poll after poll shows that they don't think any such thing.

    The Conservatives can't afford to write off roughly half the electorate for the indefinite future. So what's their strategy going to be to get these people - many of whom are actively horrified at what the Conservatives are currently doing - to consider voting for them?

    Strange question. The strategy is to get a good deal with our EU friends.

    It may not work, of course - getting a good deal depends on what the other side want - but it's a perfectly reasonable aim.
    A Leaver view of what looks like a good deal is very different from a Remainer view.

    Theresa May might yet negotiate a deal that isn't completely catastrophic. It's still not going to enthuse Remain voters.

    I don't think the Conservatives have begun to realise how strategically awful their position is.
  • The Conservatives urgently need to think about what their pitch is going to be to Remain voters. In the long term, they aren't going to keep Leave voters just because they implemented Brexit. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to be doing their level best to keep Remain voters alienated from them. This wouldn't be a problem if Remain voters were grudgingly accepting that they made the wrong choice a year ago but poll after poll shows that they don't think any such thing.

    The Conservatives can't afford to write off roughly half the electorate for the indefinite future. So what's their strategy going to be to get these people - many of whom are actively horrified at what the Conservatives are currently doing - to consider voting for them?

    If today's Times is correct May will be authorising a number of important concessions in the Brexit negotiations after the Tory conference. The Tory moonhowlers will be furious, but if May keeps her nerve and isolates them that might help to win Remainer votes. Problem is it will probably mean the Tory civil war intensifies and UKIP gets a bounce. Europe is such a Tory dividing line, you have to begin to wonder whether the party can avoid a formal schism.

  • HHemmelig said:

    kle4 said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    Things are moving in only one direction. Unless May can turn Brexit into a success and assuming she either improves her image or the Tories manage a stemless transition to a new leader who is better at campaigning, the next election will be fought by the Tories facing all the problems they did in 2017, only amplified because anti-austerity forces will be even stronger, the base will be even tireder, and floaters will be even more willing to give someone else a shot after 12 years of Tory government. If the election is before 2017 then labour have an even better chance unless a new Tory leader gets a polling bump that is borne out by the voters, since Labour are energised, and almost all dissenters are now grabbing ankle for Oh Jeremy.
    And the Tories have the Brexit millstone around their neck. They will get the blame for failing to deliver on the impossible promises many of them have made.
    The Tories cocking up Brexit will also be blamed by PM Corbyn for the disastrous consequences of his policies, and enough people will believe him to keep him in place for a few years.
    Quite possibly. Brexit is proving to be the worst decision taken by the UK for decades, perhaps centuries.
  • kle4 said:

    I think it a stretch to go from 'nationalisation is popular' to 'Corbynism is popular' as if the two are completely identical. Plenty of Labour policies were popular ideas, not all would get people to vote for the party. By that chart alone if nationalism=corbynism he should have won a landslide.

    Nonetheless those figures are horrific, suggesting we may be headed for a period of catastrophic economic policy which, if past experience is any guide, could take us a decade or two to correct.
  • blueblue said:

    FF43 said:

    blueblue said:

    blueblue said:

    The second and third tweet are vitally important. If the Conservative electorate think that the only thing they need to fix is the campaign, they are not going to change course significantly. They are going to choose a leader from complacency.

    But a good campaign would have won. Imagine if the dementia tax had instead been an eye-catching tax cut for middle earners - how many seats would that have saved?
    Is it really that simple. Wouldn't the question be 'why haven't you done that already?'
    The answer would have been that the Tories have a great track record of taking millions of people out of paying tax from 2010 onwards, and would now ease the burden further on the struggling middle.

    The electorate was longing for the Tories to promise them something other than a kick in the teeth - they believed Corbyn's insane pledges fgs, just because they wanted them to be true.
    The problem is that the Conservatives threw away any reputation for being cautious and competent with Brexit. Maybe exciting and optimistic beats cautious and competent. But Corbyn wins on those grounds. If you choose fantasy, you would want the inspiring one. The Conservatives have a serious brand issue. No-one knows what they stand for nowadays. With Corbyn, it's clear.
    That last point has to be the next leader's top priority. To be fair, once Brexit is finally resolved one way or another, then a return to clear, "normal" Conservatism may finally (please God!) be possible.

    We've got another decade of Brexit, at least.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,691
    kle4 said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    I think it a stretch to go from 'nationalisation is popular' to 'Corbynism is popular' as if the two are completely identical. Plenty of Labour policies were popular ideas, not all would get people to vote for the party. By that chart alone if nationalism=corbynism he should have won a landslide.
    I guess people aren't so keen to pay more tax to pay for the renationalisation. That's where renationalisation of the railways (i.e. the passenger franchises) is the best to promote, since it just involves not handing out new franchises when the current ones expire.

    With the utilities, then the public sector could own all new power generation capacity, for example, and a state-owned supplier could be established to sell us gas and leccy in competition with the private sector providers, until the latter give up because the vast majority switch to the publicly owned option. (Or not, as the case may be)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686

    The Conservatives urgently need to think about what their pitch is going to be to Remain voters. In the long term, they aren't going to keep Leave voters just because they implemented Brexit. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to be doing their level best to keep Remain voters alienated from them. This wouldn't be a problem if Remain voters were grudgingly accepting that they made the wrong choice a year ago but poll after poll shows that they don't think any such thing.

    The Conservatives can't afford to write off roughly half the electorate for the indefinite future. So what's their strategy going to be to get these people - many of whom are actively horrified at what the Conservatives are currently doing - to consider voting for them?

    Strange question. The strategy is to get a good deal with our EU friends.

    It may not work, of course - getting a good deal depends on what the other side want - but it's a perfectly reasonable aim.
    Well of course for Remain Cons voters (ahem), I would be happy to stay in the single market one way or another.

    But I would ideally (ha!) like the Cons to be on the front foot and suggest it rather than have it forced upon them by economic circumstance.

    I would also like a 17.2hh unicorn for Christmas pls.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797
    edited September 29

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
  • kle4 said:

    I think it a stretch to go from 'nationalisation is popular' to 'Corbynism is popular' as if the two are completely identical. Plenty of Labour policies were popular ideas, not all would get people to vote for the party. By that chart alone if nationalism=corbynism he should have won a landslide.

    Nonetheless those figures are horrific, suggesting we may be headed for a period of catastrophic economic policy which, if past experience is any guide, could take us a decade or two to correct.
    Voters have decided to take back control from capitalism.

    Brexit and Corbyn are two cheeks of the same arse.

    Economic illiteracy dressed up as popular, sensible choices when they are anything but.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    The Conservatives urgently need to think about what their pitch is going to be to Remain voters. In the long term, they aren't going to keep Leave voters just because they implemented Brexit. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to be doing their level best to keep Remain voters alienated from them. This wouldn't be a problem if Remain voters were grudgingly accepting that they made the wrong choice a year ago but poll after poll shows that they don't think any such thing.

    The Conservatives can't afford to write off roughly half the electorate for the indefinite future. So what's their strategy going to be to get these people - many of whom are actively horrified at what the Conservatives are currently doing - to consider voting for them?

    They are in a bind. A lot of Tories voted remain, but the sizable grouping that was flirting with UKIP previously are still the more problematic, so the Tories have to not merely say they are implementing the referendum, but feel they have to do so in a way which, as you say, alienates a lot of remainers - some will never forgive the party anyway, but there are those who could be retained, but its hard when the party is still pitching just to the most hardcore leavers because they are the ones who still flounce about all the time.

    The Tories need to get the message out that Labour are also planning to implement the referendum and see us leave, so that alone is no reason to vote for them, and they need to argue that whether you were for leave or remain, the best leave option for the country is the one they can deliver - it might not be anything like what remainers want, but it will be more positive than Labour can offer. The LDs will face the regular 'don't waste your vote' approach.

    I do struggle to see how the Tories can manage this though. If any Brexit is not deemed severe enough they lose swathes of votes anyway, and even if they attempt to say to remainers that 'you're getting Brexit one way or another, and ours is better than Labour's' in as positive a manner as they can, Labour can easily outdo them in that direction - they can just say they'd keep as close to the EU as possible.

    I don't see a way for them to make the appeal they need. So they are stuck in trying to make sure it is at least not disastrous as far as most people are concerned, and then doing a better job pitching domestic plans than they were in 2017.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,017
    Sandpit said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
    The median age of the country is somewhere around 40. So the answer to your question is no.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    edited September 29
    Of course, we do all need to keep pinching ourselves, and remembering that a mere five months ago we were discussing the imminent collapse and split of the Labour Party, and worrying about PM Theresa May gaining such an enormous and impregnable majority that the lack of a credible opposition was a threat to democracy.

    So if anyone tells you with great confidence what the future will bring, the only certainty is that they are wrong.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    Mr. Nick, we'll see.

    Mr. Eagles, you yourself said you supported us leaving the EU, with the somewhat Cameroon cop-out that you wanted to leave in a decade (when there would've been even more integration and difficulty in withdrawing). To condemn as equivalent to socialism those who advocate the same policy a few years earlier seems unreasonable.
  • kle4 said:

    I think it a stretch to go from 'nationalisation is popular' to 'Corbynism is popular' as if the two are completely identical. Plenty of Labour policies were popular ideas, not all would get people to vote for the party. By that chart alone if nationalism=corbynism he should have won a landslide.

    Nonetheless those figures are horrific, suggesting we may be headed for a period of catastrophic economic policy which, if past experience is any guide, could take us a decade or two to correct.
    Voters have decided to take back control from capitalism.

    Brexit and Corbyn are two cheeks of the same arse.

    Economic illiteracy dressed up as popular, sensible choices when they are anything but.

    Yep, the Leave win showed you can win by promising Cake And Eat It, and crying Project Fear when challenged.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023

    Sandpit said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
    The median age of the country is somewhere around 40. So the answer to your question is no.
    As I said earlier, there is potentially one of Callaghan's sea changes happening, and nothing the Tories can do about it. Socialism is this year's surprise hit as Fraser Nelson puts it.

    And we have answered the question as to whether the young will bother to vote.

  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 174

    kle4 said:

    I think it a stretch to go from 'nationalisation is popular' to 'Corbynism is popular' as if the two are completely identical. Plenty of Labour policies were popular ideas, not all would get people to vote for the party. By that chart alone if nationalism=corbynism he should have won a landslide.

    Nonetheless those figures are horrific, suggesting we may be headed for a period of catastrophic economic policy which, if past experience is any guide, could take us a decade or two to correct.
    I agree. The 25% of people who favour nationalisation of car manufacture is perhaps the most jaw-dropping. Presumably they want to create British Leyland II by requisitioning Toyota Derby, Nissan Sunderland etc and stringing the factories together under state ownership to produce modern Austin Allegros and Morris Marinas? I wouldn't put it past Corbyn actually.

    That 50% of people believe banks should be nationalised is also pretty insane.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    I still struggle to see any other outcome than Remain within the next 18 months, with the Tory Eurosceptic wing finding themselves marginalised.

    My sense is that the Tory Eurosceptics are actually the most committed to Brexit of all the political tribes - more so than the hard left, most of whose more realistic policies could be done within the EU, and significantly, more so than the Kippers, who I think could easily morph into a kind of AfD style party whose agenda wasn't defined by leaving the EU.

    When the ship of Brexit goes down, it will be the IDSs and Rees-Moggs who will be the last to see the writing on the wall.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    edited September 29
    Sandpit said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
    I don't remember what they were like, and I can say that I, like a lot of people, just note that m many of these industries appear to be badly run or unfair, and that for very important utilities for example, the argument these should not be in private hands is superficially appealing.

    Now, I have seen arguments advanced on here as to why it is a lot more complicated and costly than it might seem, and that state ownership has been badly done in the past. But I have never been surprised at high support for nationalisation in polls. I'll bet it was pretty high when Cameron won his majority, which if I am right is another reason why as an example of why Corbynism is popular it is misplaced.

    I am surprised people want to nationalise travel agents though. What's that about?
    Boo f***ing hoo. I'm sorry, but that is such a whinge. It is also stupid beyond belief from the Europeans if that is the case, it's insulting to their intellect and reason, and I've no reason to believe they are so stupid. We're not a small country in European terms. They are many and we are but one, but he's telling me they don't care about what we might do about things, a highly populated, economically significant european power? They don't care about what Switzerland or other nations in Europe do? Nonsense. Ok, so they are saying 'just let them go' now, what of it? That's recognition that it would be absurd for them to do anything to get us to stay (it would encourage more disruption), and if we are to go back it will be by our choice, and them in the strong corner as a result.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 804
    edited September 29
    Sandpit said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
    When the utilities were nationalised they were often seen as unresponsive, lethargic bureaucracies which put the interests of the staff ahead of consumers.

    Now they are privatised they are seen as unresponsive, overcharging bureaucracies which put the financial interests of the shareholders and directors ahead of consumers. And they are mostly owned by foreigners to boot.

    Are the Tories really going to defend the behaviour of the owners of Thames Water for instance?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797

    Sandpit said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
    The median age of the country is somewhere around 40. So the answer to your question is no.
    I’m nearly 40, and have memories of walking to phone boxes in the ‘80s because it took weeks to get a phone installed when we moved house. I also remember British Rail “We’re Getting There” - with the run down trains and soggy sandwiches.

    No thanks.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    A Leaver view of what looks like a good deal is very different from a Remainer view.

    Theresa May might yet negotiate a deal that isn't completely catastrophic. It's still not going to enthuse Remain voters.

    I don't think the Conservatives have begun to realise how strategically awful their position is.

    There are no good choices so you have to trade off the disadvantages of each. Nevertheless the choices are clear: 1) Outer space with a prospect of a limited trade agreement at some time in the future. This option is chaotic, results in long term uncertainty and is costly; 2) Rejoin the EU. The one definite in all this is that voters rejected that option; 3) Single Market and/or Customs Union. Gives us much of the same benefits and obligations of membership but on a strictly do as you are told basis. As the whole point of leaving the EU was to take back control, that clearly doesn't compute.

    Mrs May's strategy so far is to deny those choices so she doesn't have to face up to them. That might get her through until March 2019, but it isn't a sustainable position. (Which is one reason why I think she might choose to go right after formal Brexit).

    My central prediction is that we will end up with (3) pseudo-Brexit. But we are a long way from getting consensus for that position and in particular the Conservative Party is a long way from that consensus. It may not get there by 2022.
  • Mr. Nick, we'll see.

    Mr. Eagles, you yourself said you supported us leaving the EU, with the somewhat Cameroon cop-out that you wanted to leave in a decade (when there would've been even more integration and difficulty in withdrawing). To condemn as equivalent to socialism those who advocate the same policy a few years earlier seems unreasonable.

    I supported an orderly Brexit (with other countries) which would be manageable to the UK, if the EU changed its strategy and became the Eurozone club.

    What we’re getting is a disorderly Brexit.

    You Leavers have gone from there will be no economic hit to saying the economic hit will be worth it.

    Corbynites make the same argument on things like nationalisation, there’ll be an economic hit but it’ll be worth it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    edited September 29

    kle4 said:

    I think it a stretch to go from 'nationalisation is popular' to 'Corbynism is popular' as if the two are completely identical. Plenty of Labour policies were popular ideas, not all would get people to vote for the party. By that chart alone if nationalism=corbynism he should have won a landslide.

    Nonetheless those figures are horrific, suggesting we may be headed for a period of catastrophic economic policy which, if past experience is any guide, could take us a decade or two to correct.
    Voters have decided to take back control from capitalism.

    Brexit and Corbyn are two cheeks of the same arse.

    Economic illiteracy dressed up as popular, sensible choices when they are anything but.
    A major issue for Labour is that I highly suspect that popularity of nationalisation of water, gas, electric and trains is a reflection of the feeling they all cost a lot.

    Is it likely that nationalised utilities will deliver lower prices?

    Possibly, if the either the politicians game the price system after nationalisation in run-up to 2025 General Election ('look prices are down!!'). Or, it really is the case that pension funds fat-cats are creaming excessive profits.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    Sandpit said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
    When the utilities were nationalised they were often seen as unresponsive, lethargic bureaucracies which put the interests of the staff ahead of consumers.

    Now they are privatised they are seen as unresponsive, overcharging bureaucracies which put the financial interests of the shareholders and directors ahead of consumers. And they are mostly owned by foreigners to boot.
    A more succinct analysis than my own ramblings on the subject.

    They were crap then (I'm told), and they are crap now. Maybe the crap level has reduced, I don't know, but their service is crap, their prices are crap, they're just, well, you get it.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,113

    Of course, we do all need to keep pinching ourselves, and remembering that a mere five months ago we were discussing the imminent collapse and split of the Labour Party, and worrying about PM Theresa May gaining such an enormous and impregnable majority that the lack of a credible opposition was a threat to democracy.

    So if anyone tells you with great confidence what the future will bring, the only certainty is that they are wrong.

    Richard we certainly do .I honestly thought the majority would be immense for May.I do not think I have seen such a change in a few weeks of an election campaign in my lifetime.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,407
    kle4 said:


    .... the best leave option for the country is the one they can deliver - it might not be anything like what remainers want, but it will be more positive than Labour can offer. ...

    A bit like saying "You are getting executed in the morning. Hanging or firing squad?"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,046
    Sandpit said:

    The Tory complacency over Jezza should terrify Tory CCHQ.

    He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.

    Evidence
    What the..?

    Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
    I remember. Reasonably clearly. What I don’t remember is swathes of people coming on the radio (then) or writing in newspapers about how one had to switch suppliers of gas and electicity to ensure the best prices. And it was the same product coming down the same wires and pipes.
This discussion has been closed.