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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the S Times reports are correct it doesn’t bode well for TM

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited September 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the S Times reports are correct it doesn’t bode well for TMay’s survival chances

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Comments

  • FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.
  • FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.

    Not capping immigration either

    And second
  • The Sunday Times suggests leadership positioning has evolved into a full scale coup attempt. This is going to be a very unpleasant chapter in our national story.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095

    FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.

    Not capping immigration either

    And second
    UKIP's been infiltrated by a Lib Dem
  • FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.

    Not capping immigration either

    And second
    So the 80% of people in the UK who would like to see a limit to immigration can now vote for....no one at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    The Palace story attributed to Sir Christopher Geidt, the Queen's aide recently forced to resign after a rumoured rift with Prince Charles so no axe to grind there then
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    On Topic


    What a fookin mess the Tories are in
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited September 30
    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

  • The Tories are always going to do worse with the young. The BBC and education system are so anti-Tory it is laughable, not to mention social media. They also don't read newspapers.
  • First the Telegraph with Boris’s essay, next the sun with Boris’s article and now the Sunday Times.

    Murdoch has made his mind up.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    Why is the Palace furious??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    The Boris story also all attributed to 'leading Eurosceptics' and 'allies of Boris Johnson' rather than Boris himself
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    'No one' was always a silly comment. However the younger voters do need to be addressed. Lets see how this progresses over the next months (autumn statement)
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 206
    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.
  • Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited September 30
    I love the way (according to the ST) she plans to reannounce banning letting fees for the third time.

    Just get on with it. You could have done it within a few weeks of taking power if you really cared.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    edited September 30

    FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.

    Not capping immigration either

    And second
    So the 80% of people in the UK who would like to see a limit to immigration can now vote for....no one at all.
    They can vote for a Boris led Tory Party which will end free movement after the transition period post Brexit though if that is his policy Bolton might even lose voters to the BNP while failing to gain any from the main 3 parties
  • HYUFD said:

    The Boris story also all attributed to 'leading Eurosceptics' and 'allies of Boris Johnson' rather than Boris himself

    Aren't the Times and Tim Shipman big remainer's and want Hammond in place
  • What a piss poor policy offer for young voters. A huge 360 quid cut. Wowza.

    Clear Mays tenure is nearing an end. Tories in a right old mess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited September 30
    PM pledges help for young people on fees and housing

    Theresa May is set to announce that tuition fees will be frozen at £9,250 in an overhaul of student funding.
    She told the Sun on Sunday there would also be an increase of the repayment threshold, meaning graduates only start paying once they are earning £25,000.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41456555

    This is going to change precisely zero people's vote one way or another.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424

    Why is the Palace furious??

    Messing up Ascot, and being misled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    Another £1Bn MMT raising limit for repayment to £25K
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited September 30

    PM pledges help for young people on fees and housing
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41456555

    This is going to change precisely zero people's vote one way or another.

    Deckchairs.

    Titanic.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
  • HYUFD said:

    The Boris story also all attributed to 'leading Eurosceptics' and 'allies of Boris Johnson' rather than Boris himself

    There are no "allies of Boris"; there is Boris, and that's it. May is clearly a broken woman, and utterly out of her depth. Come on the Moggester, your hour has come
  • First the Telegraph with Boris’s essay, next the sun with Boris’s article and now the Sunday Times.

    Murdoch has made his mind up.

    Spot on. The coup has spread from the Telegraph group to Murdoch in just two weeks. Only Dacre holding out. Once the europhobic print press goes it's game over. We're heading for a second or arguably third ) national trauma where Leave/Remain is rerun as Soft/Hard Brexit. Voters made the wrong choice this June so the project must be got back on track via a change in Tory Leader.
  • Pong said:

    PM pledges help for young people on fees and housing
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41456555

    This is going to change precisely zero people's vote one way or another.

    Deckchairs.

    Titanic.
    [SJW mode] Cut-throat Free-market greed contributed to her sinking [/SJW mode]
  • May. She's only carrying on for shits and gigs
  • stevefstevef Posts: 256
    May needs to announce that she will abolish tuition fees. There is no point of tweeking them or lowering them or juggling with them. Why would the young accept that when Corbyn is promising to abolish them?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,815

    Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?

    I'm quite liking the idea of Boris taking over, blowing up the A50 negotiations and then having to deal with the consequences. Would be nice for him to have to clean up his own mess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646

    First the Telegraph with Boris’s essay, next the sun with Boris’s article and now the Sunday Times.

    Murdoch has made his mind up.

    Spot on. The coup has spread from the Telegraph group to Murdoch in just two weeks. Only Dacre holding out. Once the europhobic print press goes it's game over. We're heading for a second or arguably third ) national trauma where Leave/Remain is rerun as Soft/Hard Brexit. Voters made the wrong choice this June so the project must be got back on track via a change in Tory Leader.
    It is up to Tory MPs in a vote of no confidence to topple her if she does not want to go and I expect they will have hesitations making Boris PM before the Brexit talks have ended and I doubt he wants the job before then either
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487

    Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?

    I disagree. I have a lot of respect for Tim Shipman's integrity as a journalist. And he is an extremely good one.

    The story will be very well sourced, and accurate.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    'No one' was always a silly comment. However the younger voters do need to be addressed. Lets see how this progresses over the next months (autumn statement)
    The problem for the Tories are that the crossover for them on those figures is about age 60, so its not exactly a youth issue. Also Brexit is the defining political issue of the moment/decade. It defines the Tories in a very unhelpful way with the under 60's because they think Brexit an anathema, even if it isn't always what motivates them.
  • Given that she's not actually in power anyway, wouldn't it be a better idea for May to announce her resignation on stage in Manchester in the first line, walk off, then spend the rest of conference sat in the front row shouting "BOLLOCKS" at every speech from the backstabbing shots that she couldn't sack?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 206
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646

    HYUFD said:

    The Boris story also all attributed to 'leading Eurosceptics' and 'allies of Boris Johnson' rather than Boris himself

    Aren't the Times and Tim Shipman big remainer's and want Hammond in place
    The Times Yes, the Sunday Times is more pro Boris with Dominic Lawson et al but this is all media stirring before the conference
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487

    What a piss poor policy offer for young voters. A huge 360 quid cut. Wowza.

    Clear Mays tenure is nearing an end. Tories in a right old mess.

    Best thing she could do is to restore student loan interest to match CPI, and no more.

    Given current government finances, and other priorities, not much more than can be done.
  • What a piss poor policy offer for young voters. A huge 360 quid cut. Wowza.

    Clear Mays tenure is nearing an end. Tories in a right old mess.

    It depends on the review and how soon it can be produced. A comprehensive review could well offer a solution that is fair to students and fair to the tax payer.

    Lets wait and see what is announced across the conference. 10 billion to help young people buy and an overhaul of the rented sector including the abolition of tenancy fees is a good start if confirmed
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,267
    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    Doomed
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 881
    Pong said:

    PM pledges help for young people on fees and housing
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41456555

    This is going to change precisely zero people's vote one way or another.

    Deckchairs.

    Titanic.
    Magic money tree.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    'No one' was always a silly comment. However the younger voters do need to be addressed. Lets see how this progresses over the next months (autumn statement)
    The problem for the Tories are that the crossover for them on those figures is about age 60, so its not exactly a youth issue. Also Brexit is the defining political issue of the moment/decade. It defines the Tories in a very unhelpful way with the under 60's because they think Brexit an anathema, even if it isn't always what motivates them.
    It is part of the Tories owning Brexit, and thereby ignoring more pressing issues. Working age people voted Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    franklyn said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Boris story also all attributed to 'leading Eurosceptics' and 'allies of Boris Johnson' rather than Boris himself

    There are no "allies of Boris"; there is Boris, and that's it. May is clearly a broken woman, and utterly out of her depth. Come on the Moggester, your hour has come
    Nadine Dorries, James Cleverley, Kwasi Kwarteng, Mark Field, Bill Wiggin, Nadhim Zahawi, Zac Goldsmith just some of the MPs who are allies of Boris and backed him in his leadership bid before he pulled out last summer
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095
    edited September 30
    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have gone in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    HYUFD said:

    First the Telegraph with Boris’s essay, next the sun with Boris’s article and now the Sunday Times.

    Murdoch has made his mind up.

    Spot on. The coup has spread from the Telegraph group to Murdoch in just two weeks. Only Dacre holding out. Once the europhobic print press goes it's game over. We're heading for a second or arguably third ) national trauma where Leave/Remain is rerun as Soft/Hard Brexit. Voters made the wrong choice this June so the project must be got back on track via a change in Tory Leader.
    It is up to Tory MPs in a vote of no confidence to topple her if she does not want to go and I expect they will have hesitations making Boris PM before the Brexit talks have ended and I doubt he wants the job before then either
    Well if he doesnt want the job yet,


    His recent behaviour really is especially stupid
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    MikeL said:

    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.

    The government might actually make a profit on that proposal, as those earning £100k would be paying it forever.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited September 30

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution problem. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution policy. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
    We've heard that before ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Yes, but if the Tories think the voters will gratefully fall automatically back into their lap after a few years of Corbyn, then they are also making a mistake.

    Vision. Respect. Patience. Argument from first principles. Showing their means are the only way to achieve better ends. Optimism. Right tone, and language. Stamina. Resilience.

    This is the approach needed.
  • Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?

    I disagree. I have a lot of respect for Tim Shipman's integrity as a journalist. And he is an extremely good one.

    The story will be very well sourced, and accurate.
    Where did I say it was badly sourced or inaccurate ? I said it was a masterclass and specifically a masterclass of varying tropes designed to finish her. None of that is incompatible with it being well sourced or accurate. You can construct a brutally damaging and pre scripted narrative from careful arrangement of things are individually well sourced.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    edited September 30

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have going in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
    Absolutely. Should have walked, but was clearly in shock. No one pushed because they were cowards and know the first person to challenge rarely wins the prize. Hard to hold this excuse for a government in more contempt.

    They deserve a stint on the opposition benches.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 881

    FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.

    UKIP, leader and dork all belong naturally in the same sentence.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487

    Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?

    I disagree. I have a lot of respect for Tim Shipman's integrity as a journalist. And he is an extremely good one.

    The story will be very well sourced, and accurate.
    Where did I say it was badly sourced or inaccurate ? I said it was a masterclass and specifically a masterclass of varying tropes designed to finish her. None of that is incompatible with it being well sourced or accurate. You can construct a brutally damaging and pre scripted narrative from careful arrangement of things are individually well sourced.
    I don't see any motive or agenda here, yet alone a prescripted agenda. It's a scoop and a story.

    I think you're being paranoid.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 4,897

    PM pledges help for young people on fees and housing

    Theresa May is set to announce that tuition fees will be frozen at £9,250 in an overhaul of student funding.
    She told the Sun on Sunday there would also be an increase of the repayment threshold, meaning graduates only start paying once they are earning £25,000.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41456555

    This is going to change precisely zero people's vote one way or another.


    The planned £250 increase in tuition fees for 2018-19 will not go ahead and they will instead remain at the current maximum of £9,250 per year.

    Seriously. That's it? FFS.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited September 30

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Yes, but if the Tories think the voters will gratefully fall automatically back into their lap after a few years of Corbyn, then they are also making a mistake.

    Vision. Respect. Patience. Argument from first principles. Showing their means are the only way to achieve better ends. Optimism. Right tone, and language. Stamina. Resilience.

    This is the approach needed.
    What they arent fighting is the narrative that socialism is a better system that capitalism. Until corbyn, new labour of course spent their time trying to convince everybody they weren't any more and so the tories didn't have to fight that.

    While maomentum will bang on about the evils of centrist dad, the Tories rarely fight hard on the all the failures of socialism as if they believe that everybody knows it and feels the same way...Except the kids don't and quite like the sound of it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,267
    edited September 30

    First the Telegraph with Boris’s essay, next the sun with Boris’s article and now the Sunday Times.

    Murdoch has made his mind up.

    Spot on. The coup has spread from the Telegraph group to Murdoch in just two weeks. Only Dacre holding out. Once the europhobic print press goes it's game over. We're heading for a second or arguably third ) national trauma where Leave/Remain is rerun as Soft/Hard Brexit. Voters made the wrong choice this June so the project must be got back on track via a change in Tory Leader.
    But could a new Tory leader deliver the above?

    The choice is probably a TMay Brexit or Corbyn.

    If Boris becomes PM he won't be able to get a Hard Brexit through the Commons. Which would mean a GE which could result in anything - but probably Corbyn I suspect.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited September 30
    The student loan threshold change is positive. It's a cop out if it's not relinked to RPI, though.

    The tories still look to have banked the "savings" from cancelling the support for the poorest students, back in 2015.

    Disappointing if they haven't reinstated that, especially bad for the JAMS.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487
    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have going in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
    Absolutely. Should have walked, but was clearly in shock. No one pushed because they were cowards and know the first person to challenge rarely wins the prize. Hard to hold this excuse for a government in more contempt.

    They deserve a stint on the opposition benches.
    No bloody way.

    I'd sell the shirt on my back to stop Corbyn. Bedblocking him out of office, even with IDS as PM, would be preferable to that, and doing the nation a great service.

    Get your party back, for all our sakes.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 1,852
    MikeL said:

    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.

    Ah yes, a proposal that will make young people worse off than they are currently. That will help win them over.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution policy. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
    We've heard that before ;)
    I know. The Conservatives are not extinct yet, but they look to be going that way, unless something fundamental changes. The fundamentals aren't good for them, in particular Brexit isn't good for them.
  • Chris_A said:

    FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.

    UKIP, leader and dork all belong naturally in the same sentence.
    Your prejudice shows in that comment. Bolton is an ex LiB Dem candidate, ex Army and Police, has an OBE for international security and speaks well. He has also removed the cap on immigration.

    I do not support UKIP at all but he does seem to be a big improvement on Farage et al
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    edited September 30
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution policy. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
    We've heard that before ;)
    Centrist Dads are the swing constituency. Blair and Ashdown won them over, then Cameron and Clegg did.

    I think that they are suspicious of Jezza, but repelled by May. Could BoJo win them? I don't think so, but this is his chance.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    Chameleon said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.

    Ah yes, a proposal that will make young people worse off than they are currently. That will help win them over.
    How would it make young people worse off?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have going in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
    Absolutely. Should have walked, but was clearly in shock. No one pushed because they were cowards and know the first person to challenge rarely wins the prize. Hard to hold this excuse for a government in more contempt.

    They deserve a stint on the opposition benches.
    After just winning an election?

    Stop being so blindly partisan and have a bit of respect for democracy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Yes, but if the Tories think the voters will gratefully fall automatically back into their lap after a few years of Corbyn, then they are also making a mistake.

    Vision. Respect. Patience. Argument from first principles. Showing their means are the only way to achieve better ends. Optimism. Right tone, and language. Stamina. Resilience.

    This is the approach needed.
    What they arent fighting is the narrative that socialism is a better system that capitalism. Until corbyn, new labour of course spent their time trying to convince everybody they weren't any more and so the tories didn't have to fight that.

    While maomentum will bang on about the evils of centrist dad, the Tories rarely fight hard on the all the failures of socialism as if they believe that everybody knows it and feels the same way...Except the kids don't and quite like the sound of it.
    Tories have simply forgotten how to do it.

    Also I think the quality of those going into politics these days is piss poor, on all sides, it encourages trained robots who succeed by dodging controversy and playing the media game.

    No, I wouldn't be any better. But you get better (and more convincing) arguments on here than in the Commons or in TV interviews/debate, most of the time.
  • Pong said:

    The student loan threshold change is positive. It's a cop out if it's not relinked to RPI, though.

    Do you not mean CPI
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have going in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
    Absolutely. Should have walked, but was clearly in shock. No one pushed because they were cowards and know the first person to challenge rarely wins the prize. Hard to hold this excuse for a government in more contempt.

    They deserve a stint on the opposition benches.
    After just winning an election?

    Stop being so blindly partisan and have a bit of respect for democracy
    She lost her majority.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have going in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
    Absolutely. Should have walked, but was clearly in shock. No one pushed because they were cowards and know the first person to challenge rarely wins the prize. Hard to hold this excuse for a government in more contempt.

    They deserve a stint on the opposition benches.
    After just winning an election?

    Stop being so blindly partisan and have a bit of respect for democracy
    She lost her majority.
    But formed a government.

    Do we have to go back to Uk constitution 101?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Yes, but if the Tories think the voters will gratefully fall automatically back into their lap after a few years of Corbyn, then they are also making a mistake.

    Vision. Respect. Patience. Argument from first principles. Showing their means are the only way to achieve better ends. Optimism. Right tone, and language. Stamina. Resilience.

    This is the approach needed.
    It is not about falling gracefully into their lap, the high taxes, nationalisations and appalling service, endless strikes and falling prosperity and rising prices would do it for them regardless of what the Tories do.

    Even after 1945 the Tories were back in power after 6 years, after 1964 after 6 years too and after 1974 after just 5 years. Only New Labour of postwar Labour governments lasted over a decade and Corbyn is no Attlee or Wilson
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 1,852
    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.
  • PM pledges help for young people on fees and housing

    Theresa May is set to announce that tuition fees will be frozen at £9,250 in an overhaul of student funding.
    She told the Sun on Sunday there would also be an increase of the repayment threshold, meaning graduates only start paying once they are earning £25,000.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41456555

    This is going to change precisely zero people's vote one way or another.


    The planned £250 increase in tuition fees for 2018-19 will not go ahead and they will instead remain at the current maximum of £9,250 per year.

    Seriously. That's it? FFS.

    No - the threshold goes up to £25,000 and a review of the whole system will be undertaken
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution policy. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
    We've heard that before ;)
    I know. The Conservatives are not extinct yet, but they look to be going that way, unless something fundamental changes. The fundamentals aren't good for them, in particular Brexit isn't good for them.
    Let us not forget they did get 42% of the vote at the last election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited September 30
    Chameleon said:

    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.

    Given that bugger all students will ever pay back the full amount it is totally irrelevant. The raising of the repayment level a bit does make a difference but it is one of those hidden things virtually nobody will notice.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 1,852
    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.

    Ah yes, a proposal that will make young people worse off than they are currently. That will help win them over.
    How would it make young people worse off?
    For those that do not repay all their loans it will be neutral, for those that earn enough to pay off their loans then they will repay more. No young person gains, a decent amount lose.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646

    HYUFD said:

    First the Telegraph with Boris’s essay, next the sun with Boris’s article and now the Sunday Times.

    Murdoch has made his mind up.

    Spot on. The coup has spread from the Telegraph group to Murdoch in just two weeks. Only Dacre holding out. Once the europhobic print press goes it's game over. We're heading for a second or arguably third ) national trauma where Leave/Remain is rerun as Soft/Hard Brexit. Voters made the wrong choice this June so the project must be got back on track via a change in Tory Leader.
    It is up to Tory MPs in a vote of no confidence to topple her if she does not want to go and I expect they will have hesitations making Boris PM before the Brexit talks have ended and I doubt he wants the job before then either
    Well if he doesnt want the job yet,


    His recent behaviour really is especially stupid
    Boris wants the job in 2019 not 2017, his behaviour is about ensuring that he has no interest in taking over now while Brexit talks are ongoing he wants May and Davis to take the flack for those
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 1,852

    Chameleon said:

    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.

    Given that bugger all students will ever pay back the full amount it is totally irrelevant.

    Not really, at least the current system has the opportunity to find a way out of the extra tax burden.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    edited September 30
    Chameleon said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.

    Ah yes, a proposal that will make young people worse off than they are currently. That will help win them over.
    How would it make young people worse off?
    For those that do not repay all their loans it will be neutral, for those that earn enough to pay off their loans then they will repay more. No young person gains, a decent amount lose.
    So it makes the richest young people worse off? And how much do you have to earn to pay it off before you are 35, for example?

    In any case, a graduate tax could be far lower than 9%, as high earners will keep paying it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    edited September 30
    Chameleon said:

    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.

    Pension pots over a million are already taxed at 55%, and any income from state pension is taxable already.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited September 30

    Pong said:

    The student loan threshold change is positive. It's a cop out if it's not relinked to RPI, though.

    Do you not mean CPI
    The threshold for the original plan2 loans were linked to average earnings. The interest is linked to RPI, so really the threshold should be, too.

    Permanently raising it, but freezing the level, allows the treasury to sell off the loans and get a much higher rate for them than if the threshold was linked to earnings.

    As an investment, student loans with a frozen threshold are a fantastic inflation-protected asset. Pension funds etc love them.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 1,852

    Chameleon said:

    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.

    Pension ots over a million are already taxed at 55%, and any income from state pension is taxable already.
    And I proposing that it should be taxed further.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Yes, but if the Tories think the voters will gratefully fall automatically back into their lap after a few years of Corbyn, then they are also making a mistake.

    Vision. Respect. Patience. Argument from first principles. Showing their means are the only way to achieve better ends. Optimism. Right tone, and language. Stamina. Resilience.

    This is the approach needed.
    It is not about falling gracefully into their lap, the high taxes, nationalisations and appalling service, endless strikes and falling prosperity and rising prices would do it for them regardless of what the Tories do.

    Even after 1945 the Tories were back in power after 6 years, after 1964 after 6 years too and after 1974 after just 5 years. Only New Labour of postwar Labour governments lasted over a decade and Corbyn is no Attlee or Wilson
    Yes, you always have an answer to whatever anyone is saying but listen to what I'm saying, man.

    Complacency has already brought us to the brink, and will end up killing us.

    We must march to the sound of the guns and publicly win the arguments in theological combat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have going in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
    Absolutely. Should have walked, but was clearly in shock. No one pushed because they were cowards and know the first person to challenge rarely wins the prize. Hard to hold this excuse for a government in more contempt.

    They deserve a stint on the opposition benches.
    After just winning an election?

    Stop being so blindly partisan and have a bit of respect for democracy
    She lost her majority.
    But formed a government.

    Do we have to go back to Uk constitution 101?
    She should have walked after such an unforced, catastrophic error of judgement. Instead hung on and dragged herself, her party and her country down.
  • Chameleon said:

    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.

    The need is social care at circa 20 billion per annum and no one has any idea how to pay for it. However that is where pensioners monies are likely to be directed to be honest
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,267
    Chameleon said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.

    Ah yes, a proposal that will make young people worse off than they are currently. That will help win them over.
    It would make no difference to approx 75% of people.

    Yes, high earners would pay more - if you want to avoid that then put a maximum cap on the total graduate tax that could ever be paid over a lifetime.

    The point is to get rid of the mindset of debt - that is the problem.

    And it can be done without costing the Treasury anything - or only very little.
  • Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?

    I disagree. I have a lot of respect for Tim Shipman's integrity as a journalist. And he is an extremely good one.

    The story will be very well sourced, and accurate.
    Where did I say it was badly sourced or inaccurate ? I said it was a masterclass and specifically a masterclass of varying tropes designed to finish her. None of that is incompatible with it being well sourced or accurate. You can construct a brutally damaging and pre scripted narrative from careful arrangement of things are individually well sourced.
    I don't see any motive or agenda here, yet alone a prescripted agenda. It's a scoop and a story.

    I think you're being paranoid.
    I think you're pretending to be thick again for tribal purposes. Your problem is your elitist and patrician sense of entitlement. Which is amusing as it's what you accused Remoaners of. Like all very clever globalising right wing Brexiters you feel you own Brexit and it must mean X because it always has in your world and certain socioeconomic frameworks are like the laws of physics.

    But now having set the building on fire to get what you wanted your observing the chaos in anger and bewilderment. You are shouting at the flames and collapsing masonry telling them they are are misbehaving but the chaos does care. Pound Shop Dr Frankenstein's complaining the monster you built to get what you want is no longer under control.

    So faced with the latest development in the unfolding chaos, the Sunday Times story, you are reduced to denying the obvious and using mildly abusive words like " Paranoid ". Physician heal thyself.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 881

    Chris_A said:

    FPT

    Just heard the new UKIP leader on the radio and he sounds like a complete dork.

    What happened to the anti-Islam woman? That was their last chance to remain relevant.

    UKIP, leader and dork all belong naturally in the same sentence.
    Your prejudice shows in that comment. Bolton is an ex LiB Dem candidate, ex Army and Police, has an OBE for international security and speaks well. He has also removed the cap on immigration.

    I do not support UKIP at all but he does seem to be a big improvement on Farage et al
    He's a member of UKIP so he's exactly as bad as Farage.
  • How long have ukip been sponsoring MOTD coverage of the premier league ;-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    I see JRM profits from abortion pills

    Life is great
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487

    Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?

    I disagree. I have a lot of respect for Tim Shipman's integrity as a journalist. And he is an extremely good one.

    The story will be very well sourced, and accurate.
    Where did I say it was badly sourced or inaccurate ? I said it was a masterclass and specifically a masterclass of varying tropes designed to finish her. None of that is incompatible with it being well sourced or accurate. You can construct a brutally damaging and pre scripted narrative from careful arrangement of things are individually well sourced.
    I don't see any motive or agenda here, yet alone a prescripted agenda. It's a scoop and a story.

    I think you're being paranoid.
    I think you're pretending to be thick again for tribal purposes. Your problem is your elitist and patrician sense of entitlement. Which is amusing as it's what you accused Remoaners of. Like all very clever globalising right wing Brexiters you feel you own Brexit and it must mean X because it always has in your world and certain socioeconomic frameworks are like the laws of physics.

    But now having set the building on fire to get what you wanted your observing the chaos in anger and bewilderment. You are shouting at the flames and collapsing masonry telling them they are are misbehaving but the chaos does care. Pound Shop Dr Frankenstein's complaining the monster you built to get what you want is no longer under control.

    So faced with the latest development in the unfolding chaos, the Sunday Times story, you are reduced to denying the obvious and using mildly abusive words like " Paranoid ". Physician heal thyself.
    So you'll fallen back on a lengthy insecure post charged with personal insults and non sequiturs.

    Ok, thank you. I'll take that as a win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Yes, but if the Tories think the voters will gratefully fall automatically back into their lap after a few years of Corbyn, then they are also making a mistake.

    Vision. Respect. Patience. Argument from first principles. Showing their means are the only way to achieve better ends. Optimism. Right tone, and language. Stamina. Resilience.

    This is the approach needed.
    It is not about falling gracefully into their lap, the high taxes, nationalisations and appalling service, endless strikes and falling prosperity and rising prices would do it for them regardless of what the Tories do.

    Even after 1945 the Tories were back in power after 6 years, after 1964 after 6 years too and after 1974 after just 5 years. Only New Labour of postwar Labour governments lasted over a decade and Corbyn is no Attlee or Wilson
    Yes, you always have an answer to whatever anyone is saying but listen to what I'm saying, man.

    Complacency has already brought us to the brink, and will end up killing us.

    We must march to the sound of the guns and publicly win the arguments in theological combat.
    I don't doubt it but until people actually experience socialism they are unlikely to be as opposed to it and almost nobody under 40 has experienced socialism in the UK in any real form
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095

    Pick though the tropes in the Sunday Times story. It's a masterclass. #1 The SAS and Queen references are archetypes of Britishness likely to appeal to Conservative voters. May is cast in opposition to them. It's a conservative attack not a left liberal one. #2 The references to her mental health are reminiscent of the ' rumours ' about Gordon Brown's anti depressant use.Which were nothing to do with medication and everything to do with popular prejudice about mental strength. #3 The crying/make up thing is a classic sexist trope.

    Be in no doubt they are trying to topple her soon so the Hard Brexiters can shape or in all probability blow up the A50 negotiations. This is happening. The questions now are #1 Will there be a counter attack by the same wing of the Tories ? #2 Will it work ?

    I disagree. I have a lot of respect for Tim Shipman's integrity as a journalist. And he is an extremely good one.

    The story will be very well sourced, and accurate.
    Where did I say it was badly sourced or inaccurate ? I said it was a masterclass and specifically a masterclass of varying tropes designed to finish her. None of that is incompatible with it being well sourced or accurate. You can construct a brutally damaging and pre scripted narrative from careful arrangement of things are individually well sourced.
    I don't see any motive or agenda here, yet alone a prescripted agenda. It's a scoop and a story.

    I think you're being paranoid.
    I think you're pretending to be thick again for tribal purposes. Your problem is your elitist and patrician sense of entitlement. Which is amusing as it's what you accused Remoaners of. Like all very clever globalising right wing Brexiters you feel you own Brexit and it must mean X because it always has in your world and certain socioeconomic frameworks are like the laws of physics.

    But now having set the building on fire to get what you wanted your observing the chaos in anger and bewilderment. You are shouting at the flames and collapsing masonry telling them they are are misbehaving but the chaos does care. Pound Shop Dr Frankenstein's complaining the monster you built to get what you want is no longer under control.

    So faced with the latest development in the unfolding chaos, the Sunday Times story, you are reduced to denying the obvious and using mildly abusive words like " Paranoid ". Physician heal thyself.
    Great post YS
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution policy. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
    We've heard that before ;)
    I know. The Conservatives are not extinct yet, but they look to be going that way, unless something fundamental changes. The fundamentals aren't good for them, in particular Brexit isn't good for them.
    Let us not forget they did get 42% of the vote at the last election.
    Sure. The 60+ group is keeping the Conservatives afloat. They are probably OK on the demographics to the next election, all other things being equal (which they won't be of course), but they will have an existentially serious demographic problem for the election after that. Unless something changes.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 881
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    The only advantage to Boris is that he'll actually fight the stupid communists instead of ceding all the political and intellectual arguments to them - although I did appreciate May's recent defence of capitalism.

    But keeping Labour out for 5 years is far more important that who leads the Tory Party.

    The Tories have a choice, either go all out to beat Corbyn at the price of a decade or more out of power in all probability once a post Corbyn Labour Party comes to its senses, or lose to Corbyn and have a real chance of being back after 1 term after the complete mess he and McDonnell will make of the economy.

    I hope for the country's sake they remain focused on the former
    Absolutely - I'd rather have 20 years of Tony Blair than a single term of Corbyn.
    As I've been saying for months TMay should have going in the weekend after the election. Since the exit poll her position has been untenable. The media is simply reflecting this fact.
    Absolutely. Should have walked, but was clearly in shock. No one pushed because they were cowards and know the first person to challenge rarely wins the prize. Hard to hold this excuse for a government in more contempt.

    They deserve a stint on the opposition benches.
    After just winning an election?

    Stop being so blindly partisan and have a bit of respect for democracy
    But she didn't win the election. If so why are we bribing the DUP with a billion quid?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 1,852
    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely the politically sensible thing to do would be to "cancel" all student debt and just call it a graduate tax of 9% on earnings above £25,000 payable by anyone who went to university since the fees went up to £9k.

    This would cost the Govt nil but would be presentationally much better.

    NB. Don't change it for people who paid fees of £3k as they have a much lower debt which they can repay.

    Only tricky bit would be cut-off for those who had some fees at £3k and some at £9k - maybe given them the choice.

    Ah yes, a proposal that will make young people worse off than they are currently. That will help win them over.
    How would it make young people worse off?
    For those that do not repay all their loans it will be neutral, for those that earn enough to pay off their loans then they will repay more. No young person gains, a decent amount lose.
    So it makes the richest young people worse off? And how much do you have to earn to pay it off before you are 35, for example?

    In any case, a graduate tax could be far lower than 9%, as high earners will keep paying it.
    I've yet to see a proposal to make it less than 9%, and was responding to a proposal of 9%. It also depends entirely on how much you take out, I know people that are funding the majority of their degree via work and will end up with ~£10k of loans.

    According to http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/students/student-finance-calculator - it will take them about 10 years.
  • Chameleon said:

    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.

    Pension pots over a million are already taxed at 55%, and any income from state pension is taxable already.
    Is that the case, of the 1 million is there not a tax free element
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,510
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution policy. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
    We've heard that before ;)
    I know. The Conservatives are not extinct yet, but they look to be going that way, unless something fundamental changes. The fundamentals aren't good for them, in particular Brexit isn't good for them.
    Let us not forget they did get 42% of the vote at the last election.
    Sure. The 60+ group is keeping the Conservatives afloat. They are probably OK on the demographics to the next election, all other things being equal (which they won't be of course), but they will have an existentially serious demographic problem for the election after that. Unless something changes.
    And how many people said they had the same demographic problem in 1997?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    Monarch doesnt collapse in 75 mins (the airline)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 33,646
    edited September 30
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently Opinium/ Guardian have done a poll that shows no-one under the age of 45 will touch the Conservatives with a bargepole. Labour is rated higher than Conservatives on the empathy scale for all age groupd until crossover at age 65.

    Would like to see the data though.

    Somewhat borne out by voting intention figures in the latest YouGov poll, tables here:

    Con:.....15.........30..........45.......60
    Lab:......70.........52.........38........23
    .........18-24....25-49...50-64.....65+

    Age is by far the best determinant of whether you vote Conservative or Labour.

    Those Conservative figures look too symmetrical to be true.
    It's corroboration by another polling company for the point the Guardian article was making. But it does suggest the Conservatives have a demographic problem rather than a policy or execution policy. To put it crudely, the Conservative Party is literally dying.
    We've heard that before ;)
    I know. The Conservatives are not extinct yet, but they look to be going that way, unless something fundamental changes. The fundamentals aren't good for them, in particular Brexit isn't good for them.
    Let us not forget they did get 42% of the vote at the last election.
    Sure. The 60+ group is keeping the Conservatives afloat. They are probably OK on the demographics to the next election, all other things being equal (which they won't be of course), but they will have an existentially serious demographic problem for the election after that. Unless something changes.
    At the moment I would take a Tory win in 2019/20 then 10-15 years in opposition under a more moderate Labour PM if it keeps Corbyn and McDonnell out of power
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 2,914
    Chameleon said:

    As someone who is typing this from inside a uni - the £250 saving for each of the next 2 years, plus the £360 from then on in is appreciated. However in the grand scheme of things it's not that much. The obvious solution to all this is to take some money from the pensioners, they've had a life time to prepare for their retirement. Or on a slightly less radical note, if someone has a pension pot of above £1m, they should be ineligible for the Govt. pension, WFA, bus passes etc.

    So

    a) They will freeze their pot ( the very very very few that have £1m ) at £999k.
    b) If you've paid NI for 35 years with the govt saying " you get a pension" and it's taken away - where's the fairness?
    c) Given a pot of £1m buys you an index linked pension at 65 with 50% spouse pension (a standard public sector terms pension) of about £28k, are public sector pensioners who get more than 28k ( say deputy school heads) going to be so penalised too?
This discussion has been closed.