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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly two in three voters don’t approve of the way the govern

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly two in three voters don’t approve of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations

Several pollsters are tracking how the public is viewing the Brexit negotiations and the latest, from ORB shows a sharp net decline in approval.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    Seems like every time I come on here there is a new thread. Not goal hanging for the glory. Honest.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
  • Don't worry David Davis, Liam Fox, and Boris Johnson are in charge of delivering Brexit, nothing to worry about.
  • dixiedean said:

    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?

    Should be when ORB publish their tables.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063
    Emmanuel Macron: If Cameron attacks, everything will be alright.

    Michel Barnier: Monsieur Macron... Cameron...

    Angela Merkel: Cameron didn't have enough Remainers. The Remain victory didn't take place.

    [Macron pauses to take off his glasses]

    Macron: The following stay here: Tusk, Merkel, Barnier and Juncker.
    [The four named EU bigwigs, along with Hollande and Verhofstadt, remain in the room as the others leave. The door closes behind them]
    That was an order! Cameron's attack was an order! How dare you ignore my orders?!
    [Macron's ranting is clearly audible outside the room]
    Is this what it came to? The Commission, everybody lied to me. Even the LibDems! The Remainers are no more than a bunch of disloyal cowards!

    Juncker: Monsieur Macron, I can't permit you to insult the British Remainers-

    Macron: They are all cowards, traitors and failures!

    Juncker: Monsieur Macron, This is outrageous!

    Macron: The Commission are the scum of the European Project!
    [flings a pencil onto the table]
    NO SENSE OF HONOUR! You call yourself "Commissioner" because you spent years at the academy, where you only learned how to use a knife and fork! For years, the Commission obstructed me. All you ever did is thwart me. What I should have done, is had all the high officers fired, like Donald Trump did!
    [pauses]
    I never went to the academy. But I conquered all of France on my own. Traitors! I've been betrayed and deceived from the start. Such enormous betrayal of the European people. But all these traitors will pay. They will pay with their own jobs! They will drown in their European Regulations!

    Theresa May: [To Anna Soubry, outside the room] Anna, please calm yourself!

    Macron: All my orders have been ignored. How can I be a French President under these circumstances? It's over. The war is lost. But if you think this means I'll leave Brussels... you're wrong. I'd rather give Nigel Farage fellatio! [sighs] Do whatever you want.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    Tom Petty dead. Saw him at Wembley Arena c 1988.
  • dixiedean said:

    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?

    Suspect it is probably both - and there lies the conundrum for anyone leading the Country into Brexit
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 4,897

    Don't worry David Davis, Liam Fox, and Boris Johnson are in charge of delivering Brexit, nothing to worry about.


    Glad you're on board.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,854
    The problem with such polling is that although the overall numbers are clearly meaningful to some extent (and I would be one of those disapproving) they are conflating many different opinions.

    We already know that most Remainers disapprove of the way May is handling things.
    We also know that for almost exactly the opposite reasons most of the hard line Leavers also disapprove of the way she is handling things.

    But both these groups would probably disapprove almost no matter what she was doing unless she was either saying we ignore the vote and stay in (hard line Remainers) or leave immediately with no deal (hard line Leavers).

    It strikes me that this sort of polling was pretty much inevitable so long as she tries to tread a path anywhere near the centre.
  • MP_SE2MP_SE2 Posts: 77

    Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!

    I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.
    I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420

    dixiedean said:

    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?

    Should be when ORB publish their tables.
    Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 19,987
    fpt

    MEH. Give the Catalonians some guns. Arm them. Then let's see how brave the Castilian cops might be.
  • MP_SE2 said:

    Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!

    I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.
    I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.
    But you've been getting exercised by some on the left being complete bellends over the attack, but you're quiet on this, I wonder why.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,032
    I think most people are just sick of hearing about Brexit.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?

    Should be when ORB publish their tables.
    Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.
    Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.

    https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    Updated reports are that shooter had 19 weapons with him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    MEH. Give the Catalonians some guns. Arm them. Then let's see how brave the Castilian cops might be.

    "Nonviolence is a powerful and just weapon. Indeed, it is a weapon unique in history, which cuts without wounding and ennobles the man who wields it."
    — Martin Luther King, Jr., The Quest for Peace and Justice (1964)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,797
    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.

    I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.
  • Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,797

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.

    I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.
    Just stick with the discount ones, right?
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.

    I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.
    Just stick with the discount ones, right?
    Yup.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.


    One of my least favourite places!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.

    I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.
    What would a good Muslim boy such as yourself love about sin city?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 19,987

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.

    I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.
    What would a good Muslim boy such as yourself love about sin city?
    When asked for one word to describe Las Vegas, Martin Amis, rather brilliantly, came up with the single word: "Unislamic".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    One factor is that Labour’s is still managing to get away with its carefully contrived ambivalence on the issue. How long that will last is hard to say.

    Quite awhile I should think. With the Tories not able to portray any strength or stability, Labour will be able to get away with any ambivalence quite effectively, and the Tories struggle to benefit even when there is good news.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,032
    edited October 2
    deleted
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 57,213
    edited October 2

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.

    I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.
    What would a good Muslim boy such as yourself love about sin city?
    I've been on two stag dos there, and a few gambling trips.

    I ony went to ensure my companions engaged in high standards of moral hygiene.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 19,987
    Scott_P said:
    That makes Boris PM, I reckon. Unless an unexpected star emerges, or Ruth D can somehow be smuggled south
  • Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 19,987

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726

    Updated reports are that shooter had 19 weapons with him.

    Perhaps the NRA would allow Trump to change 2nd amendment to limit guns to a maximum of 18.

    Could have saved 3 lives last night
  • SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Probably
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Don't worry, Eton College knows how to prepare people for the premiership, it'll be fine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603
    edited October 2
    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    17 months is an awfully long time in politics - just think about the changes over the past 17 months. Literally anything could happen.

    Edit: plus with the tories, the obvious front-runner never gets the role (e.g. Hestletine, Portillo, Osborne, Johnson)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    That makes Boris PM, I reckon. Unless an unexpected star emerges, or Ruth D can somehow be smuggled south
    Is that Ruth 'stop WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland' Davidson ?

    Whoever is the next Conservative leader is going to have to advocate some harsh and unpopular policies.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?

    Should be when ORB publish their tables.
    Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.
    Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.

    https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf
    Doesn't really enlighten us then. Why would you commission such a poll and not ask for leave or remain. Surely you'd need them for sampling control. In which case why not publish?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095
    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 19,987
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Don't worry, Eton College knows how to prepare people for the premiership, it'll be fine.
    I've gone from being very pro-Boris (I do owe him a massive personal career debt), to quite pro, to so-so, to mildly negative (since Brexit), yet in the last few weeks, I've been thinking: why the feck not. Give him a chance.

    He's smart, he's still charismatic, sure he annoys millions, but he can also charm millions. He is the Corbyn of the right. He also believes (genuinely) in Brexit, and the Tories may just need that convinced salesman spiel to see things through. That sense of optimism. Let's do this!

    He's a kind of pound-shop Churchill, but that's where we are. I see no obvious rivals apart from Ruth D (who would be perfect, but she's stuck in Holyrood)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    That makes Boris PM, I reckon. Unless an unexpected star emerges, or Ruth D can somehow be smuggled south
    Is that Ruth 'stop WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland' Davidson ?

    Whoever is the next Conservative leader is going to have to advocate some harsh and unpopular policies.
    Maybe not - if the next leader is in opposition because May held on that long (not that they will necessarily win if she does not) then they can advocate some very popular policies.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?

    Should be when ORB publish their tables.
    Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.
    Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.

    https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf
    Doesn't really enlighten us then. Why would you commission such a poll and not ask for leave or remain. Surely you'd need them for sampling control. In which case why not publish?
    It is a mystery.

    This, however, should cheer you up


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited October 2
    The brother of the shooter claims he was a multi-millionaire. It just get weirder and weirder. And no that doesn't mean I am suggesting any sort of tin foil hat conspiracy theory.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    MEH. Give the Catalonians some guns. Arm them. Then let's see how brave the Castilian cops might be.

    I would not mess around with the Guardia Civil armed or unarmed. They are hard and deeply unpleasant with it. Fatalistic, Castillian Catholicism is not the Bachinnalian Mediterranean variety you get in Catalonia and Andalucia. It's why the Castillians won all the violent confrontations.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Don't worry, Eton College knows how to prepare people for the premiership, it'll be fine.
    I've gone from being very pro-Boris (I do owe him a massive personal career debt), to quite pro, to so-so, to mildly negative (since Brexit), yet in the last few weeks, I've been thinking: why the feck not. Give him a chance.

    He's smart, he's still charismatic, sure he annoys millions, but he can also charm millions. He is the Corbyn of the right. He also believes (genuinely) in Brexit, and the Tories may just need that convinced salesman spiel to see things through. That sense of optimism. Let's do this!

    He's a kind of pound-shop Churchill, but that's where we are. I see no obvious rivals apart from Ruth D (who would be perfect, but she's stuck in Holyrood)
    Boris's time has come... and gone. It'll not be him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377

    The brother of the shooter claims he was a multi-millionaire. It just get weirder and weirder.

    Well Bin Laden was worth a good few million. Cash = access to bombs, guns or w/e - not really a hindrance. If you can't rub two pennies together it is tricky to get hold of a gun.
  • The most interesting thing about Boris was in the Sunday Times, he's itching to be sacked because he's struggling to make ends meet on the salary of a Foreign Secretary.

    I did point out a few weeks ago it must be frustrating for Boris seeing George Osborne earning £650,00 a year for one day a week.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    Pulpstar said:

    The brother of the shooter claims he was a multi-millionaire. It just get weirder and weirder.

    Well Bin Laden was worth a good few million. Cash = access to bombs, guns or w/e - not really a hindrance. If you can't rub two pennies together it is tricky to get hold of a gun.
    Well quite. There was some suggestion in the media earlier that gambler = broke = motive.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.
    Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.

    On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Don't worry, Eton College knows how to prepare people for the premiership, it'll be fine.
    I've gone from being very pro-Boris (I do owe him a massive personal career debt), to quite pro, to so-so, to mildly negative (since Brexit), yet in the last few weeks, I've been thinking: why the feck not. Give him a chance.

    He's smart, he's still charismatic, sure he annoys millions, but he can also charm millions. He is the Corbyn of the right. He also believes (genuinely) in Brexit, and the Tories may just need that convinced salesman spiel to see things through. That sense of optimism. Let's do this!

    He's a kind of pound-shop Churchill, but that's where we are. I see no obvious rivals apart from Ruth D (who would be perfect, but she's stuck in Holyrood)
    Boris was the reason I voted Tory for the first time ever in 2008 :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438

    The most interesting thing about Boris was in the Sunday Times, he's itching to be sacked because he's struggling to make ends meet on the salary of a Foreign Secretary.

    I did point out a few weeks ago it must be frustrating for Boris seeing George Osborne earning £650,00 a year for one day a week.

    Yeah, but Osborne's CV includes a six-year stint as the G20's most successful finance minister.
  • The most interesting thing about Boris was in the Sunday Times, he's itching to be sacked because he's struggling to make ends meet on the salary of a Foreign Secretary.

    I did point out a few weeks ago it must be frustrating for Boris seeing George Osborne earning £650,00 a year for one day a week.

    Yeah, but Osborne's CV includes a six-year stint as the G20's most successful finance minister.
    Very true.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.
    Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.

    On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.
    Exactly! I suspect May will find a way to hang on through to the GE. Win or lose at that point her successor will be from the next generation. Boris will join the pantheon of the 'might-have-beens'.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603
    Back on topic, is there any indication from that poll as to whether voters are blaming the government more than the EU?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 19,987

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.
    Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.

    On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.
    But EVERYONE will look shop soiled by 2022, and the next GE.

    Corbyn is 68, and will be 73 in 2022. That's really quite old, and, I reckon, way too old for the Brits to elect him as PM.

    In four more years will the Labour Conference still be singing Oooooh, Jeremy Corbyn! - call me an old cynic, but I REALLY doubt it. Corbyn is a phenomenon of political youth, he is the latest boyband in a vest, and boybands come and go.

    Unlike Corbyn, Boris has been in front line politics for a decade, his initial appeal has very much worn off, but he is still a serious politician. He is also like Churchill in terms of being in and out of favour.

    I reckon it will be Boris versus SOMEONE WE CAN'T PREDICT versus Ruth Davidson for Tory leader. Timing is all.

    And the next Labour PM will be Emily Thornberry, producing a much more centrist version of Corbynism, with Softer Brexit.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,021

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.
    Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.

    On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.
    An interesting observation - which might just explain Davis' statement.

    A touch of Morton's fork... is Davis a bridge player ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 57,213
    edited October 2
    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page

    I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019
    AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.

    The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
    Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.
    Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.

    On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.
    But EVERYONE will look shop soiled by 2022, and the next GE.

    Corbyn is 68, and will be 73 in 2022. That's really quite old, and, I reckon, way too old for the Brits to elect him as PM.

    In four more years will the Labour Conference still be singing Oooooh, Jeremy Corbyn! - call me an old cynic, but I REALLY doubt it. Corbyn is a phenomenon of political youth, he is the latest boyband in a vest, and boybands come and go.

    Unlike Corbyn, Boris has been in front line politics for a decade, his initial appeal has very much worn off, but he is still a serious politician. He is also like Churchill in terms of being in and out of favour.

    I reckon it will be Boris versus SOMEONE WE CAN'T PREDICT versus Ruth Davidson for Tory leader. Timing is all.

    And the next Labour PM will be Emily Thornberry, producing a much more centrist version of Corbynism, with Softer Brexit.

    I think that is right, and I agree that Emily Thornberry is one to watch. However, the softness or otherwise of Brexit is going to be decided in the next 12 months, because that is the absolute latest that plans can be made - might even be too late.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603
    edited October 2

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?

    (Although a successful leadership bid has been launched from Hastings before of course - it'd be one in the eye for Boris!)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.
  • Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    He seems to provoke visceral dislike from many Tories. He was being briefed against for months in the lead up to the referendum, and while such polling as exists suggests he is hardly super popular with the rank and vile, I struggle to see why the possibility provokes such animus.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    He seems to provoke visceral dislike from many Tories. He was being briefed against for months in the lead up to the referendum, and while such polling as exists suggests he is hardly super popular with the rank and vile, I struggle to see why the possibility provokes such animus.
    He has an annoying habit of talking sense.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    edited October 2

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    That's what they thought in the run up to 2015. Instead her majority went up to 4,700.

    If the LibDems recover a bit, and the Conservatives don't alienate their core vote next time round, she has a good chance of repeating the trick. Still, she's certainly in danger, and that's definitely a problem for any leadership bid.
  • Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.

    Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.
    The ground game was just running late by 2 years is all.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456

    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.
    He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    Now here's a thought I've been mulling over:

    If the Budget earlier this year had been accepted without problem would there have been a GE ?

    I rather suspect that May went for the GE because firstly she wanted more leeway for tax and spending changes and secondly she wanted a bigger majority for dealing with rebellions such as the Budget provoked.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    That's what they thought in the run up to 2015. Instead her majority went up to 4,700.

    If the LibDems recover a bit
    Why should it? If it didn't in 2017, I don't know that anything dramatic will occur for them next time, even if some increase should be possible given possibly 12 years of Tory government. They couldn't even recover second in many former heartlands.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?

    Should be when ORB publish their tables.
    Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.
    Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.

    https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf
    Doesn't really enlighten us then. Why would you commission such a poll and not ask for leave or remain. Surely you'd need them for sampling control. In which case why not publish?
    It is a mystery.

    This, however, should cheer you up


    Not sure it does really. While critical, not sure anyone else would be better. Stable clubs do well. Palace sack someone every couple of months and look at them. Wrong people wrong strategy. Conservatives take note!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095

    Now here's a thought I've been mulling over:

    If the Budget earlier this year had been accepted without problem would there have been a GE ?

    I rather suspect that May went for the GE because firstly she wanted more leeway for tax and spending changes and secondly she wanted a bigger majority for dealing with rebellions such as the Budget provoked.

    Disagree. It was a vanity trip encouraged by DDavis
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.
    He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.
    I recall at that time wondering why so many people went after Hammond for that though - May is PM, unless people are telling me she didn't see the budget before Hammond introduced it, she must have known it was coming, so either one or both of them didn't realise it contradicted a previous pledge, or they considered the situation demanded it and then backed off when trouble arose. A choice between idiocy and cowardice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,021
    Interesting explanation for the violence of the Grenfell conflagration:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-41466281
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,267
    Rudd did very badly in the Frank Luntz Con leaders focus group on Sunday Politics.

    5 options were presented:

    Hammond and Rudd were eliminated first - neither considered remotely leadership potential.

    Boris came 3rd.

    Final was Davis v Rees-Mogg - which ended in a tie.

    However, Davis, R-M and Boris were all considered entirely plausible.

    Hammond and Rudd were not.

    Rudd widely considered to be a solid number 2, not a leader.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.

    Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
    IOS 11? :lol:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602

    Now here's a thought I've been mulling over:

    If the Budget earlier this year had been accepted without problem would there have been a GE ?

    I rather suspect that May went for the GE because firstly she wanted more leeway for tax and spending changes and secondly she wanted a bigger majority for dealing with rebellions such as the Budget provoked.

    Disagree. It was a vanity trip encouraged by DDavis
    And maybe by the claims that she didn't have a mandate of her own and was a 'Poundshop Gordon Brown' for not having the courage to call an election :wink:
  • MP_SE2MP_SE2 Posts: 77

    MP_SE2 said:

    Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!

    I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.
    I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.
    But you've been getting exercised by some on the left being complete bellends over the attack, but you're quiet on this, I wonder why.
    I don't jump to conclusions and I don't feel the need to virtue signal. If you were right I would have been posting all that crap about his partner being some deranged anti-Trump activist that was doing the rounds earlier.

    I am sure you are just tetchy, the last 12 months or so have been particularly difficult for you. No Dave... No George... No more chumocracy...
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,248
    Interesting figures but it's classic ' negative sovereignty '. Brexit will become as unpopular as EU membership became for the same reasons. It's the status quo and diverse groups who agree about nothing else will agree that the status quo is crap. If western democracies have reached the point of ' negative sovereignty ' where majorities can only be assembled to block or stop things but never to create or sustain things this is the future.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    kle4 said:

    Why should it? If it didn't in 2017, I don't know that anything dramatic will occur for them next time, even if some increase should be possible given possibly 12 years of Tory government. They couldn't even recover second in many former heartlands.

    In a word, or rather two words, Tim Farron. Plus if some vague semblance of sanity leaks back into the brains of left-leaning voters, Corbyn and his extremist cabal won't be able to repeat the trick of hoovering up all the left-of-Tory vote.

    I'm not saying this is nailed on, of course. No-one knows. But it's a perfectly plausible scenario that the stars won't align for Corbyn - let alone any sucessor - as perfectly as they did in 2017.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.

    Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
    Er... stumped on both points. Do they relate to PB before BP?
  • MP_SE2MP_SE2 Posts: 77

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    That's what they thought in the run up to 2015. Instead her majority went up to 4,700.

    If the LibDems recover a bit, and the Conservatives don't alienate their core vote next time round, she has a good chance of repeating the trick. Still, she's certainly in danger, and that's definitely a problem for any leadership bid.
    Rudd's career history is problematic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    kle4 said:

    Why should it? If it didn't in 2017, I don't know that anything dramatic will occur for them next time, even if some increase should be possible given possibly 12 years of Tory government. They couldn't even recover second in many former heartlands.

    In a word, or rather two words, Tim Farron. Plus if some vague semblance of sanity leaks back into the brains of left-leaning voters, Corbyn and his extremist cabal won't be able to repeat the trick of hoovering up all the left-of-Tory vote.

    I'm not saying this is nailed on, of course. No-one knows. But it's a perfectly plausible scenario that the stars won't align for Corbyn - let alone any sucessor - as perfectly as they did in 2017.
    Fingers crossed. (Though depending on who if anyone succeeds him before then, I would not be so opposed).
  • MP_SE2 said:

    MP_SE2 said:

    Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!

    I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.
    I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.
    But you've been getting exercised by some on the left being complete bellends over the attack, but you're quiet on this, I wonder why.
    I don't jump to conclusions and I don't feel the need to virtue signal. If you were right I would have been posting all that crap about his partner being some deranged anti-Trump activist that was doing the rounds earlier.

    I am sure you are just tetchy, the last 12 months or so have been particularly difficult for you. No Dave... No George... No more chumocracy...
    So that's a no from you, you've been exposed for being a hypocrite.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603
    Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.
    He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.
    Overruled by May on that one. I thought those changes were a superb idea personally.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438

    Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!
    It would certainly provoke a big attempt at a decapitation. That might backfire, though.

    Clearly it would be a big risk for the Conservatives, and that probably means it won't be Rudd.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.
    He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.
    I recall at that time wondering why so many people went after Hammond for that though - May is PM, unless people are telling me she didn't see the budget before Hammond introduced it, she must have known it was coming, so either one or both of them didn't realise it contradicted a previous pledge, or they considered the situation demanded it and then backed off when trouble arose. A choice between idiocy and cowardice.
    Or both.

    The Budget should have been a warning sign about the lack of proper planning and inattention to detail.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?

    The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.

    Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.
    He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.
    Overruled by May on that one. I thought those changes were a superb idea personally.
    So did most of us here IIRC.

    But a few loud mouthed pols and journos stopped them.

    I wonder if any of the Conservative MPs who were so against the NI changes lost their seats in June.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603
    MikeL said:

    Rudd did very badly in the Frank Luntz Con leaders focus group on Sunday Politics.

    5 options were presented:

    Hammond and Rudd were eliminated first - neither considered remotely leadership potential.

    Boris came 3rd.

    Final was Davis v Rees-Mogg - which ended in a tie.

    However, Davis, R-M and Boris were all considered entirely plausible.

    Hammond and Rudd were not.

    Rudd widely considered to be a solid number 2, not a leader.

    Perhaps she's just genuinely trying to hold her seat at the next GE - given it (as Hastings) has been a bell-weather seat since 1983, I suspect she's wasting her money.
  • Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!
    As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.

    What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149

    Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!
    As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.

    What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.
    Perhaps then picking Rudd would be a good choice - the chance to take down the leader distracting effort in many other seats, so even if they succeed, the Tories are triumphant. Party before leader.
  • kle4 said:

    Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!
    As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.

    What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.
    Perhaps then picking Rudd would be a good choice - the chance to take down the leader distracting effort in many other seats, so even if they succeed, the Tories are triumphant. Party before leader.
    Yup.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.

    Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
    Er... stumped on both points. Do they relate to PB before BP?
    IOS was a London Labour activist who continually boasted about Labour's 'ground game' and how it was certain to bring victory in 2015.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603

    Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!
    As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.

    What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.
    Yes but to decapitate the PM - that would out-Portillo everything!

    (Note to Special Branch: I am talking about unseating the PM!!!)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,603

    Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?
    She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.
    Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!
    You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.

    Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
    Er... stumped on both points. Do they relate to PB before BP?
    IOS was a London Labour activist who continually boasted about Labour's 'ground game' and how it was certain to bring victory in 2015.
    Ah thanks, I suspected something along those lines.

    Well, I am sure TSE didn't make any rash predictions about the size of the Tory GE2017 majority, in the days before I joined the forum :lol:
This discussion has been closed.