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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions that DDavis no longer interested

Boris Johnson, who just over a month ago had been down at 6% in the next CON leader betting has now moved back sharply and is 17% clear favourite following reports that David Davis will no longer want it.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,248
    A Strong Nominee. A Divisive Opponent. But Can Democrats Win in Alabama? https://nyti.ms/2fJFrKg
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,248
    Jeff Flake, in Feud with Trump, Now Faces Challenge from the Left https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/29/us/politics/jeff-flake-kyrsten-sinema-arizona-senate-trump.html
  • Can’t imagine why David David doesn’t want to be around during aftermath of Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited October 3
    FPT
    ydoethur said:

    The leadership is inextricably tied to Brexit. One will not be resolved without the other. Which puts everything else on hold. Possibly the best argument against a transition deal is that while we are still talking about this, we're not having serious conversations about our decayed infrastructure, unbalanced economy, worrying reliance on imported fuel and constitutional dog's breakfast. All these desperately need addressing and have done since the mid 1990s but will never be addressed while we are haggling with M. Barnier about what kind of cameras we should have on the Irish border.

    I really don't expect a contest this side of March 2019, but after that I expect one to follow swiftly and I hope it is a big discussion about domestic problems. Let's face it, that's the only way we'll get such a discussion given Labour is now openly talking about deliberate economic destruction and closing the NHS and the state education system (even if it it's too dense to realise that's where its policies lead).

    We need to decide as a country what's more important: leaving the EU or dealing with these pressing issues. My main political regret is that we didn't deal with those issues while we were members of the EU and had an opportunity to do so. The haggling over Article 50 is a modest foretaste of what we will get from now on and - to be absolutely clear - walking away will massively exacerbate the disruption. It was Leaver dishonesty that leaving the EU would be free of consequences and would in some vague way sort those problems out. It doesn't. It just makes those problems hugely more difficult to solve.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Lynton Crosby won't come cheap, who will be paying him to work for Rudd?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,024
    Tom Petty RIP. Very sad news. One of the towering greats of the last few decades.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,024

    Can’t imagine why David David doesn’t want to be around during aftermath of Brexit.

    :lol:

    Is he retiring to another country?
  • Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
  • Well I’m team stop Boris/JRM.

    David Davis might still be PM if Mrs May is toppled in the near future, so I wouldn’t lay him at silly prices.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    FPT

    I watched "Today at Conference" after Newsnight. Not much of a crowd for anyone.

    Checking ticket prices: Labour Conference = £110; Conservative Conference = £520

    I think there's a reason for the sparse attendance right there. Assume you are an engaged Party member who has other ways of spending £520. I think those prices are a blow back to when activists were seen as an embarrassment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    Mr. Eagles, no.

    There'll naturally be a period of turbulence as we leave EU trade deals and negotiate our own. This isn't difficult to comprehend.

    The economics of socialism always fail, permanently. We need only look at Venezuela. China's rapid economic growth only took off once it moved to a more capitalist approach.

    This ridiculous "If you want to leave the EU you're just like a Corbynista" line holds as much water as your mad views on Caesar being a better general than Hannibal.

    It's particularly perverse when you yourself claim to support leaving the EU, just not right now (the idea it'd be easier to leave in the future is about as optimistic as throwing yourself out of a plane because you might land in the Playboy mansion swimming pool).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,024
    Has Davis denied this story yet?

    I mean the Telegraph is the Boris house paper.
  • Mr. Eagles, no.

    There'll naturally be a period of turbulence as we leave EU trade deals and negotiate our own. This isn't difficult to comprehend.

    The economics of socialism always fail, permanently. We need only look at Venezuela. China's rapid economic growth only took off once it moved to a more capitalist approach.

    This ridiculous "If you want to leave the EU you're just like a Corbynista" line holds as much water as your mad views on Caesar being a better general than Hannibal.

    It's particularly perverse when you yourself claim to support leaving the EU, just not right now (the idea it'd be easier to leave in the future is about as optimistic as throwing yourself out of a plane because you might land in the Playboy mansion swimming pool).

    The politics of economic nationalism also fail.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,047
    Quite frankly there is no pathway for a soft EUer like Rudd or any other vaguely electable Tory with the membership as is. They would be destroyed in a contest. And there is no way the Tory head banging MP quadrant will allow a soft EUer the prize unopposed. And May is finished. The Tories have no viable options....jettison May for someone worse (Johnson, Davids, Mogg et al), or stick with a loser.

    Granted, Corbyn is too polarising a figure to win Labour the kind of Blair like majorities...but Rudd certainly has little prospect to retain her seat.


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    FF43 said:

    FPT

    I watched "Today at Conference" after Newsnight. Not much of a crowd for anyone.

    Checking ticket prices: Labour Conference = £110; Conservative Conference = £520

    I think there's a reason for the sparse attendance right there. Assume you are an engaged Party member who has other ways of spending £520. I think those prices are a blow back to when activists were seen as an embarrassment.
    Should've held it in Mansfield not Manchester.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on staying in or leaving the EU, not adopting economic nationalism.

    You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.
  • Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on staying in or leaving the EU, not adopting economic nationalism.

    You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.

    You’re talking about an economic hit being worth it for Brexit.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 244
    "But Venezuela" is the new Godwin's Law.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 637

    Lynton Crosby won't come cheap, who will be paying him to work for Rudd?

    See some of Rudd's financial resources, Private Eye passim! (always wanted to write that ;-)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited October 3

    Lynton Crosby won't come cheap, who will be paying him to work for Rudd?

    I'd be surprised if he wasn't working for free after the 2017 campaign.

    Anyway, the story is very odd.

    An attempt to smoke out/pin down Crosby?

    This was the Sun's take;

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4599000/amber-rudd-hires-top-pollster-sir-lyton-crosbys-firm-to-help-her-next-election-campaign/

    Unless I'm misreading, they're saying the funding is - at least in part - from Feldman.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    edited October 3

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.

    And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.

    The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.

    There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,047

    Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on staying in or leaving the EU, not adopting economic nationalism.

    You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.


    Mate...the whole Brexit fuckup is built on economic nationalism. It's utterly corrosive, damaging and illiterate.

    Why do you think the only business people Brexit dredged up was some wanker who set up Weatherspoons, or the completely bonkers, Dyson?

    The kind of nationalism that underpins Brexit is horrible with a capital H. It has completely debased our country, thrown us out to the margins, and alienated us from world affairs instead looking to the likes of Trump and Saudi for crumbs.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 256
    Thus proving once more that at the top of the Tory tree, there's nothing but monkeys.
  • Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.

    And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.

    The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.

    There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.

    Brexit, in its current form, is economic nationalism, is a pity you can’t see it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,384
    edited October 3
    Mr. Tyson, I didn't vote to leave because of nationalism, economic or otherwise. I voted to leave because we face a strategic decision to either integrate or separate. I'm quite aware this is not a painless path (though it would be easier if Cameron hadn't forbade contingency planning by the Civil Service, or if May et al were more competent). The alternative would also not be painless, but it would be the pain of a frog, slowly boiled as the temperature gradually rises and powers are gradually dragged from here to Brussels.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, the economic policy of this nation, for good or ill, will be decided at the next General Election. The decision to leave the EU was likewise made at the ballot box.

    You seem greatly antagonistic towards those who share your view we should leave, but prefer to do it sooner rather than later.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited October 3

    Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Long term disruption as we partially reconstitute what we had before, on a best case, but on worse terms and on a take or leave it basis.

    But hey ...

  • eekeek Posts: 1,884

    Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.

    And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.

    The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.

    There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.

    Brexit, in its current form, is economic nationalism, is a pity you can’t see it.
    As I would say to anyone in this circumstance show me the steps, step by (logical) step....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,021
    An extraordinary detail in the thicket of absurdities which constitute US gun laws:

    https://www.gq.com/story/inside-federal-bureau-of-way-too-many-guns
    That's been a federal law, thanks to the NRA, since 1986: No searchable database of America's gun owners. So people here have to use paper, sort through enormous stacks of forms and record books that gun stores are required to keep and to eventually turn over to the feds when requested. It's kind of like a library in the old days—but without the card catalog. They can use pictures of paper, like microfilm (they recently got the go-ahead to convert the microfilm to PDFs), as long as the pictures of paper are not searchable. You have to flip through and read. No searching by gun owner. No searching by name…
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087
    tyson said:

    Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on staying in or leaving the EU, not adopting economic nationalism.

    You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.


    Mate...the whole Brexit fuckup is built on economic nationalism. It's utterly corrosive, damaging and illiterate.

    Why do you think the only business people Brexit dredged up was some wanker who set up Weatherspoons, or the completely bonkers, Dyson?

    The kind of nationalism that underpins Brexit is horrible with a capital H. It has completely debased our country, thrown us out to the margins, and alienated us from world affairs instead looking to the likes of Trump and Saudi for crumbs.
    Whereas Remain had Stuart "wages will rise" Rose.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    tyson said:

    Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on staying in or leaving the EU, not adopting economic nationalism.

    You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.


    Mate...the whole Brexit fuckup is built on economic nationalism. It's utterly corrosive, damaging and illiterate.

    Why do you think the only business people Brexit dredged up was some wanker who set up Weatherspoons, or the completely bonkers, Dyson?

    The kind of nationalism that underpins Brexit is horrible with a capital H. It has completely debased our country, thrown us out to the margins, and alienated us from world affairs instead looking to the likes of Trump and Saudi for crumbs.
    Whereas economic globalisation of the previous decade had brought stagnant wages and stagnant productivity but rising debt and rising inequality.

    Not to mention all the social costs:

    ' A raid on a three-bedroom house in north-west London has found 35 men living in rooms full of mattresses.

    The discovery was made on Winchester Avenue, Queensbury, at about 6am on Tuesday following complaints from neighbours, Brent council said. The men, all of eastern European origin, had piled bedding in every room except bathrooms, with one mattress even laid out under a canopy in the back garden. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/20/london-council-finds-35-men-living-in-one-three-bedroom-house

    The Leave vote was a consequence of the working class being deemed socioeconomically irrelevant maybe even worthless by the establishment.

    Likewise the rise of Corbyn was a consequence of other demographics being treated in the same way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited October 3
    Sheriff in Las vegas had an incredible stat last night that of all those made it to UNLV hospital alive are still alive and they have in general a 97% survival rate for gunshot wounds in general.
  • eek said:

    Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.

    And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.

    The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.

    There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.

    Brexit, in its current form, is economic nationalism, is a pity you can’t see it.
    As I would say to anyone in this circumstance show me the steps, step by (logical) step....
    I’ll a write a thread on it, as I don’t think I’ll be able to explain it in one comment BTL.

    The headline is ‘Corbynism and Brexit, two cheeks of the same arse’
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,206

    Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.

    And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.

    The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.

    There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.

    Brexit, in its current form, is economic nationalism, is a pity you can’t see it.
    To be frank, I think neoliberalism is headed towards its death throes. When we are selling off organisations like the Land Registry, which carry out basic functions of the state, it is clearly a process driven by ideology rather any broader sense of the national interest.

    Dying in a ditch for privatisation and buy to let landlords will not save the Tory Party. The one policy that might is rampant housebuilding.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer.

    It's not on offer because it's akin to saying you'd happily sign up to the public services without the taxes. It simply isn't possible to have one without the other.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.

    And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.

    The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.

    There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.

    Brexit, in its current form, is economic nationalism, is a pity you can’t see it.
    To be frank, I think neoliberalism is headed towards its death throes. When we are selling off organisations like the Land Registry, which carry out basic functions of the state, it is clearly a process driven by ideology rather any broader sense of the national interest.

    Dying in a ditch for privatisation and buy to let landlords will not save the Tory Party. The one policy that might is rampant housebuilding.
    The biggest roadblock to mass house building is rampant NIMBYism.

    The green belt is a real achievement and we should build on it.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,047

    Mr. Tyson, I didn't vote to leave because of nationalism, economic or otherwise. I voted to leave because we face a strategic decision to either integrate or separate. I'm quite aware this is not a painless path (though it would be easier if Cameron hadn't forbade contingency planning by the Civil Service, or if May et al were more competent). The alternative would also not be painless, but it would be the pain of a frog, slowly boiled as the temperature gradually rises and powers are gradually dragged from here to Brussels.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, the economic policy of this nation, for good or ill, will be decided at the next General Election. The decision to leave the EU was likewise made at the ballot box.

    You seem greatly antagonistic towards those who share your view we should leave, but prefer to do it sooner rather than later.

    You talk about Brussels like it is some separate body. As the 2nd or 3rd largest, English speaking country we had a significant voice in Brussels to shape it.


    Now we are akin to a dog with a begging bowel. It took the Germans the cataclysm of a defeat in a world war to be dictated to by world bodies. At least with Britain we have diminished ourselves only through a vote and not the folly of war.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063

    Mr. Eagles, there'll be a short term economic period of turbulence necessarily as we negotiate new trade deals.

    Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.

    And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.

    The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.

    Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.

    There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.

    Brexit, in its current form, is economic nationalism, is a pity you can’t see it.
    Or "Swadeshi", as Gandhi put it.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited October 3


    Whereas economic globalisation of the previous decade had brought stagnant wages and stagnant productivity but rising debt and rising inequality.

    Not to mention all the social costs:

    ' A raid on a three-bedroom house in north-west London has found 35 men living in rooms full of mattresses.

    The discovery was made on Winchester Avenue, Queensbury, at about 6am on Tuesday following complaints from neighbours, Brent council said. The men, all of eastern European origin, had piled bedding in every room except bathrooms, with one mattress even laid out under a canopy in the back garden. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/20/london-council-finds-35-men-living-in-one-three-bedroom-house

    The Leave vote was a consequence of the working class being deemed socioeconomically irrelevant maybe even worthless by the establishment.

    Likewise the rise of Corbyn was a consequence of other demographics being treated in the same way.

    You are right that the Brexit vote was largely a response to those problems. Anyone who is a liberal or supports capitalism has some soul searching to do. If their philosophies aren't seen to deliver, people will look elsewhere. Even though the assumed "solutions" - Brexit and Corbynist state corporatism - will make the situation far worse.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,952
    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,952

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    He writes....as a Tory?
  • It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    Indeed. If she had any sense of shame, decency, or honour she would have resigned on June 9th.

    But no, she intends to emulate Gordon Brown.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    I wonder if he'd appeared on the show if Andrew Neil had stood in for Marr?
  • Nigelb said:

    An extraordinary detail in the thicket of absurdities which constitute US gun laws:

    https://www.gq.com/story/inside-federal-bureau-of-way-too-many-guns
    That's been a federal law, thanks to the NRA, since 1986: No searchable database of America's gun owners. So people here have to use paper, sort through enormous stacks of forms and record books that gun stores are required to keep and to eventually turn over to the feds when requested. It's kind of like a library in the old days—but without the card catalog. They can use pictures of paper, like microfilm (they recently got the go-ahead to convert the microfilm to PDFs), as long as the pictures of paper are not searchable. You have to flip through and read. No searching by gun owner. No searching by name…

    sound very paranoic - no fed database just in case looney dems get in and persecute gun owners. Then again I'd be against central databases of anything on general purposes, so not that insane.
  • tysontyson Posts: 4,047
    FF43 said:


    Whereas economic globalisation of the previous decade had brought stagnant wages and stagnant productivity but rising debt and rising inequality.

    Not to mention all the social costs:

    ' A raid on a three-bedroom house in north-west London has found 35 men living in rooms full of mattresses.

    The discovery was made on Winchester Avenue, Queensbury, at about 6am on Tuesday following complaints from neighbours, Brent council said. The men, all of eastern European origin, had piled bedding in every room except bathrooms, with one mattress even laid out under a canopy in the back garden. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/20/london-council-finds-35-men-living-in-one-three-bedroom-house

    The Leave vote was a consequence of the working class being deemed socioeconomically irrelevant maybe even worthless by the establishment.

    Likewise the rise of Corbyn was a consequence of other demographics being treated in the same way.

    You are right that the Brexit vote was largely a response to those problems. Anyone who is a liberal or supports capitalism has some soul searching to do. If their philosophies aren't seen to deliver, people will look elsewhere. Even though the assumed "solutions" - Brexit and Corbynist state corporatism - will make the situation far worse.
    The Tory response to the banking crisis was disgusting in seeking to reshape the state. The assault on public services and council funding has been criminally negligent.

    And now the party is flailing around, left holding Brexit, knowing now that it is on the wrong side of the economic debate.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 614
    At what point are Tory MPs going to stop with this farce? Stop pretending May is safe and will fight next election. No chance.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,407

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.

    :D :D :+1:
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited October 3

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The buying of the product creates the debt. There's never not going to be a debt when you buy a product across a currency border.

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    What a farce, Corbyn spouts economic tosh yet not a single Conservative is capable of publicly explaining that.

    Let's face it, the tory PBers would vote for anything or anybody in a blue rosette, it saves thinking. And in the meantime they're happy to bash away in echo chambers and ignore the general public. Rudd has to hire an American to tell her what to say, its pathetic.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    He writes....as a Tory?
    Are you saying that only Tories can have opinions on our sub-standard PM who has been rejected by the voters? I admire your loyalty but she is rubbish at politics and is incapable of leading the country.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    What a farce, Corbyn spouts economic tosh yet not a single Conservative is capable of publicly explaining that.

    Ummm. Brexit?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 8,602
    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The exchange of products creates the debt. no?

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
    Effectively Britain is selling its assets to pay for its current consumption.

    The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.

    So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087

    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The exchange of products creates the debt. no?

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
    Effectively Britain is selling its assets to pay for its current consumption.

    The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.

    So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
    Until Comrade Corbyn cancels the debt.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    tyson said:

    FF43 said:


    Whereas economic globalisation of the previous decade had brought stagnant wages and stagnant productivity but rising debt and rising inequality.

    Not to mention all the social costs:

    ' A raid on a three-bedroom house in north-west London has found 35 men living in rooms full of mattresses.

    The discovery was made on Winchester Avenue, Queensbury, at about 6am on Tuesday following complaints from neighbours, Brent council said. The men, all of eastern European origin, had piled bedding in every room except bathrooms, with one mattress even laid out under a canopy in the back garden. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/20/london-council-finds-35-men-living-in-one-three-bedroom-house

    The Leave vote was a consequence of the working class being deemed socioeconomically irrelevant maybe even worthless by the establishment.

    Likewise the rise of Corbyn was a consequence of other demographics being treated in the same way.

    You are right that the Brexit vote was largely a response to those problems. Anyone who is a liberal or supports capitalism has some soul searching to do. If their philosophies aren't seen to deliver, people will look elsewhere. Even though the assumed "solutions" - Brexit and Corbynist state corporatism - will make the situation far worse.
    The Tory response to the banking crisis was disgusting in seeking to reshape the state. The assault on public services and council funding has been criminally negligent.

    And now the party is flailing around, left holding Brexit, knowing now that it is on the wrong side of the economic debate.
    The problem is not that they're on the wrong side - they're not on any side. They know Corbyn is an economic fruitcake but they're incapable of explaining why. Have a look at the tory brains trust on here and you'll soon understand why the party is in such a mess.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,407
    Pong said:

    The buying of the product creates the debt. There's never not going to be a debt when you buy a product across a currency border.

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.

    The buying of the product creates the debt only if you lack the money to pay for the product - and if you lack the money you should not be buying it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,952

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    He writes....as a Tory?
    Are you saying that only Tories can have opinions on our sub-standard PM who has been rejected by the voters? I admire your loyalty but she is rubbish at politics and is incapable of leading the country.
    Everyone is entitled to an opinion - but I would suggest the views of Tory Party members - which is what Lord Ashcroft reports, might be more germane......

    As for 'rejected by the voters':

    http://hastheresamayresignedyet.com
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    FF43 said:

    What a farce, Corbyn spouts economic tosh yet not a single Conservative is capable of publicly explaining that.

    Ummm. Brexit?

    Well you better explain the connection between Brexit and Corbyn's plans to renationalise everything, raise tax and write off student debt.

    Brexit is happening, unless the tories grow a pair balls Corbyn will happen too.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    He writes....as a Tory?
    Are you saying that only Tories can have opinions on our sub-standard PM who has been rejected by the voters? I admire your loyalty but she is rubbish at politics and is incapable of leading the country.
    As owner of this site I don't understand why you insult people by saying May was rejected by voters. Regardless of your view of her she is PM.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,166
    edited October 3
    tyson said:

    Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on staying in or leaving the EU, not adopting economic nationalism.

    You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.


    Mate...the whole Brexit fuckup is built on economic nationalism. It's utterly corrosive, damaging and illiterate.

    Why do you think the only business people Brexit dredged up was some wanker who set up Weatherspoons, or the completely bonkers, Dyson?

    The kind of nationalism that underpins Brexit is horrible with a capital H. It has completely debased our country, thrown us out to the margins, and alienated us from world affairs instead looking to the likes of Trump and Saudi for crumbs.
    An excellent post and on the nail. Nationalism is grotesque and a scourge whether it is in Bosnia the UK.

    I just heard that only 1 in 4 of the under 50's voted Tory at the last election which roughly corresponds to those under 50 who voted Brexit.

    I'm no psephologist but that tells me the Tories are fucked unless they can find a get out and with Boris there's zero chance of that.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Roger said:

    tyson said:

    Mr. Eagles, the referendum was on staying in or leaving the EU, not adopting economic nationalism.

    You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.


    Mate...the whole Brexit fuckup is built on economic nationalism. It's utterly corrosive, damaging and illiterate.

    Why do you think the only business people Brexit dredged up was some wanker who set up Weatherspoons, or the completely bonkers, Dyson?

    The kind of nationalism that underpins Brexit is horrible with a capital H. It has completely debased our country, thrown us out to the margins, and alienated us from world affairs instead looking to the likes of Trump and Saudi for crumbs.
    An excellent post and on the nail. Nationalism is grotesque and a scourge whether it is Bosnia or in the UK.

    I just heard that only 1 in 4 of the under 50's voted Tory at the election which roughly corresponds to those under 50 who voted Brexit.

    I'm no psephologist but that tells me the Tories are fucked unless they can find a get out and with the opportunists opportunist Boris there's zero chance of that.
    You sound like a riot policeman in Catalonia.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    Well you better explain the connection between Brexit and Corbyn's plans to renationalise everything, raise tax and write off student debt.

    Scott_P has a photograph that might help you join the dots.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377

    Pong said:

    The buying of the product creates the debt. There's never not going to be a debt when you buy a product across a currency border.

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.

    The buying of the product creates the debt only if you lack the money to pay for the product - and if you lack the money you should not be buying it.
    Unless you're buying a house or creating an interest rate arbitrage situation :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    FF43 said:

    What a farce, Corbyn spouts economic tosh yet not a single Conservative is capable of publicly explaining that.

    Ummm. Brexit?

    Well you better explain the connection between Brexit and Corbyn's plans to renationalise everything, raise tax and write off student debt.

    Brexit is happening, unless the tories grow a pair balls Corbyn will happen too.
    Unless the Tories stop pretending Brexit will be anything other than a miserable failure that can only be abandoned or damage limited, they easily out-tosh Corbyn. That's why they can't lay a finger on him.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,407
    edited October 3

    Brexit is happening

    Yes it is happening and it looks like we are going to mess it up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    tlg86 said:

    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The exchange of products creates the debt. no?

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
    Effectively Britain is selling its assets to pay for its current consumption.

    The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.

    So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
    Until Comrade Corbyn cancels the debt.
    You generally get to borrow more cheaply when you pay debts back. Unilaterally cancelling our debt would cost a fortune :o
    I'm sure Labour knows this :)
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Well you better explain the connection between Brexit and Corbyn's plans to renationalise everything, raise tax and write off student debt.

    Scott_P has a photograph that might help you join the dots.
    I knew I'd regret it and that you and other ostriches would c&p something juvenile
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,206

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    He writes....as a Tory?
    Are you saying that only Tories can have opinions on our sub-standard PM who has been rejected by the voters? I admire your loyalty but she is rubbish at politics and is incapable of leading the country.
    If you add up all the votes the Lib Dem won in 2010, 2015 and 2017, you are still more than 2 million below what the Tories under Theresa May got this summer.

    That's rejection.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,248
    Whoops ! <

    UK builders suffer surprise contraction

    Breaking! Britain’s construction sector is contracting, fuelling fears that the UK economy is slowing.

    The Markit construction PMI, which tracks activity across the sector, fell to just 48.1 in September. That’s down from 51.1 in August.

    Crucially, it is below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

    In other words, activity across the building sector is shrinking, for the first time in 13 months (just after the Brexit vote).

    This is much worse than anyone in the City expected (economists predicted a reading of around 50.0)

    Builders interviewed by Markit say they suffered a drop in workloads due to “fragile confidence and subdued risk appetite” among clients, especially in the commercial building sector.

    Brexit uncertainty appears to be a big factor. Markit says:

    Survey respondents widely commented on a headwind from political and economic uncertainty, alongside extended lead times for budget approvals among clients
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,407

    Well you better explain the connection between Brexit and Corbyn's plans to renationalise everything, raise tax and write off student debt.

    Scott_P has a photograph that might help you join the dots.
    I knew I'd regret it and that you and other ostriches would c&p something juvenile
    Basically, Comrade Corbyn seems to believe that remaining in the EU will stop some of his loonier schemes. So he is better off without the EU interfering with his plans for a Socialist Workers' Paradise therefore Brexit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The exchange of products creates the debt. no?

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
    Effectively Britain is selling its assets to pay for its current consumption.

    The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.

    So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
    Until Comrade Corbyn cancels the debt.
    You generally get to borrow more cheaply when you pay debts back. Unilaterally cancelling our debt would cost a fortune :o
    I'm sure Labour knows this :)
    Interesting question. If Labour did that, and then genuinely lived within its means by cutting spending or, more likely, increasing taxes, would it save the tax payer money in the long run? Sure, no one would lend to the government (certainly not Labour), but would it be worth it?

    (I appreciate that cancelling the debt would actually hurt people in this country)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797
    edited October 3
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The exchange of products creates the debt. no?

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
    Effectively Britain is selling its assets to pay for its current consumption.

    The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.

    So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
    Until Comrade Corbyn cancels the debt.
    You generally get to borrow more cheaply when you pay debts back. Unilaterally cancelling our debt would cost a fortune :o
    I'm sure Labour knows this :)
    When John McDonnell said last week that no-one earning less than £80k will pay more tax under Labour, what he failed to mention is that five years of inflation, devaluation and printing money will mean that £80k is going to be barely minimum wage!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,407
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    The buying of the product creates the debt. There's never not going to be a debt when you buy a product across a currency border.

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.

    The buying of the product creates the debt only if you lack the money to pay for the product - and if you lack the money you should not be buying it.
    Unless you're buying a house or creating an interest rate arbitrage situation :)
    But a house is a realizable asset. It can be sold to recover the debt at any point in time (unless it was massively over-valued at the purchase)
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Well you better explain the connection between Brexit and Corbyn's plans to renationalise everything, raise tax and write off student debt.

    Scott_P has a photograph that might help you join the dots.
    I knew I'd regret it and that you and other ostriches would c&p something juvenile
    Basically, Comrade Corbyn seems to believe that remaining in the EU will stop some of his loonier schemes. So he is better off without the EU interfering with his plans for a Socialist Workers' Paradise therefore Brexit.
    As I keep saying, it should be very easy for people to debunk these loony schemes.

    But they can't, they prefer to blame the Brexit bogeyman.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,952
    Boss of Monarch not blaming Brexit for collapse:

    Mr Swaffield blamed the company's demise on "terrorism and the closure of some markets like Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt," which led to more competition on routes to Spain and Portugal.
    "Flights were being squeezed into a smaller number of destinations and a 25% reduction in ticket prices on our routes created a massive economic challenge for our short-haul network," he told the BBC.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41481661?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,831

    Can’t imagine why David David doesn’t want to be around during aftermath of Brexit.

    For betting purposes, does this make Davis the new Howard -- succeed May in a coronation and pledge to step down after 12 months, by which time the new Cameron will have been found?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    RoyalBlue said:

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    He writes....as a Tory?
    Are you saying that only Tories can have opinions on our sub-standard PM who has been rejected by the voters? I admire your loyalty but she is rubbish at politics and is incapable of leading the country.
    If you add up all the votes the Lib Dem won in 2010, 2015 and 2017, you are still more than 2 million below what the Tories under Theresa May got this summer.

    That's rejection.
    She asked for mandate to implement her plan, she lost her majority. That's rejection.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,831

    Boss of Monarch not blaming Brexit for collapse:

    Mr Swaffield blamed the company's demise on "terrorism and the closure of some markets like Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt," which led to more competition on routes to Spain and Portugal.
    "Flights were being squeezed into a smaller number of destinations and a 25% reduction in ticket prices on our routes created a massive economic challenge for our short-haul network," he told the BBC.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41481661?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter

    The HR department at Ryanair will be busy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797

    Boss of Monarch not blaming Brexit for collapse:

    Mr Swaffield blamed the company's demise on "terrorism and the closure of some markets like Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt," which led to more competition on routes to Spain and Portugal.
    "Flights were being squeezed into a smaller number of destinations and a 25% reduction in ticket prices on our routes created a massive economic challenge for our short-haul network," he told the BBC.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41481661?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter

    The HR department at Ryanair will be busy.
    The HR departments at BA, Easy, Jet2, Flybe, and many others around the world will be busy. Even unemployed pilots don’t want to work for Ryanair.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 57,213
    edited October 3

    Can’t imagine why David David doesn’t want to be around during aftermath of Brexit.

    For betting purposes, does this make Davis the new Howard -- succeed May in a coronation and pledge to step down after 12 months, by which time the new Cameron will have been found?
    Nah. Howard was respected across the party as a serious politician.

    Because of that vanity by election, across the party, David Davis is seen as a preening twat who puts the T I T in egotist
  • Jonathan said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    It wasn’t so long ago that Boris Johnson was the star attraction of the conference. He would pack auditoriums, just as I’m sure he will when he speaks this afternoon.

    But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html


    The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
    He writes....as a Tory?
    Are you saying that only Tories can have opinions on our sub-standard PM who has been rejected by the voters? I admire your loyalty but she is rubbish at politics and is incapable of leading the country.
    If you add up all the votes the Lib Dem won in 2010, 2015 and 2017, you are still more than 2 million below what the Tories under Theresa May got this summer.

    That's rejection.
    She asked for mandate to implement her plan, she lost her majority. That's rejection.
    Correction, she lost David Cameron’s majority.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,831
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The exchange of products creates the debt. no?

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
    Effectively Britain is selling its assets to pay for its current consumption.

    The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.

    So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
    Until Comrade Corbyn cancels the debt.
    You generally get to borrow more cheaply when you pay debts back. Unilaterally cancelling our debt would cost a fortune :o
    I'm sure Labour knows this :)
    When John McDonnell said last week that no-one earning less than £80k will pay more tax under Labour, what he failed to mention is that five years of inflation, devaluation and printing money will mean that £80k is going to be barely minimum wage!
    We've already had years of devaluation and printing money.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,407

    Well you better explain the connection between Brexit and Corbyn's plans to renationalise everything, raise tax and write off student debt.

    Scott_P has a photograph that might help you join the dots.
    I knew I'd regret it and that you and other ostriches would c&p something juvenile
    Basically, Comrade Corbyn seems to believe that remaining in the EU will stop some of his loonier schemes. So he is better off without the EU interfering with his plans for a Socialist Workers' Paradise therefore Brexit.
    As I keep saying, it should be very easy for people to debunk these loony schemes.

    But they can't, they prefer to blame the Brexit bogeyman.
    No - you are missing the point. Labour appear to have schemes that the EU will reject. Whether or not non-Labour people blame Brexit or not, as long as Corbyn believes that the EU will interfere then he will tacitly support Brexit. If he knew we were staying in the EU then some of the more outlandish schemes would never be proposed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    Boss of Monarch not blaming Brexit for collapse:

    Mr Swaffield blamed the company's demise on "terrorism and the closure of some markets like Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt," which led to more competition on routes to Spain and Portugal.
    "Flights were being squeezed into a smaller number of destinations and a 25% reduction in ticket prices on our routes created a massive economic challenge for our short-haul network," he told the BBC.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41481661?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter

    I can quote too. Waahey!

    Higher air fares, less choice and possibly even a return to 1970s air charter days to get around flight restrictions: a leading UK airline boss has told The Independent what could await British travellers if the present “open skies” arrangements end after Brexit.

    Andrew Swaffield, chief executive of Monarch, said: “Fares will gradually go up and there will be less competition.” He said the remarkable choice and low fares currently available to British travellers are due to European liberalisation.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-monarch-flights-boss-step-backwards-seventies-warning-latest-a7751641.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,166

    Boss of Monarch not blaming Brexit for collapse:

    Mr Swaffield blamed the company's demise on "terrorism and the closure of some markets like Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt," which led to more competition on routes to Spain and Portugal.
    "Flights were being squeezed into a smaller number of destinations and a 25% reduction in ticket prices on our routes created a massive economic challenge for our short-haul network," he told the BBC.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41481661?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter</blockquote


    I can't see anything in the article you linked to that mentions Brexit? I did hear on radio a commentator say the fall in the pound was a contributory factor

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    Nah. Howard was respected across the party as a serious politician.

    Only in relative terms. His recent comments about war with Spain and saying that Barnier is demanding reparations from us suggest he was no more suitable to be a candidate for PM than IDS.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited October 3
    Just heard from somebody who got "rescued" from abroad due to monarch collapse. They said it was actually rather well organised and good communication throughout.

    Not often you hear that. Especially given the large numbers involved.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 804
    tyson said:

    FF43 said:


    Whereas economic globalisation of the previous decade had brought stagnant wages and stagnant productivity but rising debt and rising inequality.

    Not to mention all the social costs:

    ' A raid on a three-bedroom house in north-west London has found 35 men living in rooms full of mattresses.

    The discovery was made on Winchester Avenue, Queensbury, at about 6am on Tuesday following complaints from neighbours, Brent council said. The men, all of eastern European origin, had piled bedding in every room except bathrooms, with one mattress even laid out under a canopy in the back garden. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/20/london-council-finds-35-men-living-in-one-three-bedroom-house

    The Leave vote was a consequence of the working class being deemed socioeconomically irrelevant maybe even worthless by the establishment.

    Likewise the rise of Corbyn was a consequence of other demographics being treated in the same way.

    You are right that the Brexit vote was largely a response to those problems. Anyone who is a liberal or supports capitalism has some soul searching to do. If their philosophies aren't seen to deliver, people will look elsewhere. Even though the assumed "solutions" - Brexit and Corbynist state corporatism - will make the situation far worse.
    The Tory response to the banking crisis was disgusting in seeking to reshape the state. The assault on public services and council funding has been criminally negligent.

    And now the party is flailing around, left holding Brexit, knowing now that it is on the wrong side of the economic debate.
    Yes. Anyone who has done any doorstep canvassing in recent years will know that the popular perception is that those who caused the banking crisis were bailed out at public expense, no one was punished, and the whole corporate merry go round of telephone number salaries for those at the top and minimum-wage zero-hours contracts for those at the bottom continued with the active encouragement of the government. The cost of the crisis was paid by ordinary people who suffered tax increases, frozen living standards and the erosion of public services whilst the top 10% or so continued to get richer.

    In the circumstances the rise of populism is hardly surprising. But right-wing populists have rushed into the blind alleys of Brexit in the UK and Trump in the US - neither of these offer any serious hope of dealing with the causes of the popular sense of alienation and anger. So the stage is set fair for left-wing populism and there is very little the right can do to halt it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,087
    edited October 3
    Net national disposable income (NNDI) per head increased by 2.0% between Quarter 2 2016 and Quarter 2 2017, due mainly to a £6.4 billion increase in the income received from the UK’s foreign direct investment from abroad.

    https://tinyurl.com/yccfshp2
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,248
    edited October 3
    Nobody is " blaming Brexit " for Monarch. Almost everyone is recognising that #1 A peak to trough devaluation of $1.55 to $1.20 for the £ is a significant shock to a company with huge costs in Foriegn Currency. #2 That withdrawing from the Single European Sky on Brexit Day with no earthly idea what if anything will replace it has detected external buyers. Devaluation and Uncertainty. Or " an immediate economic shock " as a certain Treasury document once said.

    Which isn't to say Monarch didn't have huge problems anyway. It certainly did. But if you are already I'll that's a reason to avoid unnecessary infections not vote for them in a referendum. It's simply obtuse to argue that because something isn't the sole or primary cause of something it can't be an aggrevating factor.
  • Just heard from somebody who got "rescued" from abroad due to monarch collapse. They said it was actually rather well organised and good communication throughout.

    Not often you hear that. Especially given the large numbers involved.

    Astonishing given that Chris Grayling was involved.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 864
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, most of those (here, at least) who support leaving the EU believe that, in the short term, there will be an economic hit. However, David Davis is unlikely to be around as a potential leadership candidate much beyond that short term period.

    Exactly the same argument the Corbynistas make about trashing the economy and a run on the pound.

    You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
    We had £115bn of economic arsonism from GO in 2016:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
    Not to mention an interest rate cut when the pound was weakening.
    From saying this in 2010:

    " at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm

    to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
    Isn't that statement meaningless/economically obvious?

    The exchange of products creates the debt. no?

    Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
    Effectively Britain is selling its assets to pay for its current consumption.

    The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.

    So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
    Until Comrade Corbyn cancels the debt.
    You generally get to borrow more cheaply when you pay debts back. Unilaterally cancelling our debt would cost a fortune :o
    I'm sure Labour knows this :)
    When John McDonnell said last week that no-one earning less than £80k will pay more tax under Labour, what he failed to mention is that five years of inflation, devaluation and printing money will mean that £80k is going to be barely minimum wage!
    Any politician who discusses that current account deficit chart would have my respect. The UK ... going the way of Monarch Airlines?

    I'm puzzled why the line is so flat in the earlier period, surely there should be some movement up and down? I remember though that severe current deficits were thought to be a sign of incompetence and brought down governments.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617
    tlg86 said:
    Non-household incomes?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    In the circumstances the rise of populism is hardly surprising. But right-wing populists have rushed into the blind alleys of Brexit in the UK and Trump in the US - neither of these offer any serious hope of dealing with the causes of the popular sense of alienation and anger. So the stage is set fair for left-wing populism and there is very little the right can do to halt it.

    I looked up Steve Baker's CV recently and it turns out that before going into politics he worked in IT for Lehman Brothers.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited October 3
    tlg86 said:



    Not sure why these two metrics would move in opposite directions.

    Interesting. Anyway, this article explains Real Net National Disposable Income, despite its name, is a variation of GDP that includes income from foreign investments. Real Household Disposable Income is what we think it is, ie what households have to spend after taxes.

This discussion has been closed.