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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd moves up in the next CON leader betting but Corbyn

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd moves up in the next CON leader betting but Corbyn still favourite to become next PM

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Comments

  • Her majority is the issue.

    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.
  • I suspect the party will unite behind whoever is the Stop Boris/JRM candidate, if you’re not already on Sir Micky Fallon and Jeremy Hunt are worth backing with a few notes.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,242

    Her majority is the issue.
    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.

    Wasn`t it you the other day talking about having a child by him, Mr Eagles?

    Nowt as strange as you Tories......
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 15,866

    Her majority is the issue.

    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.

    Backing others that don't appear on that list seems value. DD retiring. JRM has too much Popery. Ruth not in Westminster until 2022 at earliest.
  • PClipp said:

    Her majority is the issue.
    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.

    Wasn`t it you the other day talking about having a child by him, Mr Eagles?

    Nowt as strange as you Tories......
    No, I said when people read an article I posted about him, people would want to have his babies.

    As for the strangeness stakes, I raise you a Mark Oaten.
  • TGOHF said:

    Her majority is the issue.

    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.

    Backing others that don't appear on that list seems value. DD retiring. JRM has too much Popery. Ruth not in Westminster until 2022 at earliest.
    Dom Raab and Tom Tugendhat are the other two worth backing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686

    TGOHF said:

    Her majority is the issue.

    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.

    Backing others that don't appear on that list seems value. DD retiring. JRM has too much Popery. Ruth not in Westminster until 2022 at earliest.
    Dom Raab and Tom Tugendhat are the other two worth backing.
    Nick Boles, health willing. Nick Herbert also. Dom Raab I agree also.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458
    7% for Davidson is too high. She may well make a fine Conservative leader one day, but the First Ministership is in her sights. Even if she were gunning for it the logistics of getting a Westminster seat in time are an obstacle.
  • TimGeoTimGeo Posts: 14
    Johnny Mercer certainly did a great job in shoring up his personal majority at the 2017 GE ( +14.3%) in marginal territory.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    TGOHF said:

    Her majority is the issue.

    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.

    Backing others that don't appear on that list seems value. DD retiring. JRM has too much Popery. Ruth not in Westminster until 2022 at earliest.
    Dom Raab and Tom Tugendhat are the other two worth backing.
    Yup, I agree on those two. Definite chance if the next leader is 2019, 2021, or 2025....

    Whereas DD, Hammond and BoJo betting slips are going to have limited life span. Ditto Hunt and Fallon, i fear.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797
    Next PM and Next Tory Leader, both markets for laying rather than backing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    There should be some arbitrage between those two lists. Why for example is David Davis a 11% prospect of being next Tory leader but has no prospect of being next PM while Johnson's prospects of being next leader and PM are essentially the same.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438

    I suspect the party will unite behind whoever is the Stop Boris/JRM candidate, if you’re not already on Sir Micky Fallon and Jeremy Hunt are worth backing with a few notes.

    Both of those should be backed in the Next PM, not the Next Leader, markets.
  • TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Her majority is the issue.

    Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.

    Backing others that don't appear on that list seems value. DD retiring. JRM has too much Popery. Ruth not in Westminster until 2022 at earliest.
    Dom Raab and Tom Tugendhat are the other two worth backing.
    Nick Boles, health willing. Nick Herbert also. Dom Raab I agree also.
    I heart Nick Boles.

    I suspect David Davis wanting to stand down is good news for his former Chief of Staff, Mr Raab.

    If Gove doesn't stand again, he might endorse Raab, whom he is close to.

    That's quite the double endorsement.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 678

    Question for those who voted Remain. [snip]

    My answer on this, informed by many commenters on here:

    I would declare that the country was divided like never before, across generations, classes and outlooks. As PM, I would govern for the whole country and my priority was to bring the country together and address the divisions. The referendum result reflected the unease about the EU but it was clear that no consensus was emerging in the country, in parliament or in government about what comes next as reflected in the hung parliament and the contradictory promises of the Leave campaign which are impossible to deliver together.

    Therefore we would adopt a 2 step process. The first step would to be respect the referendum and Article 50 process by leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union. This will remove us from political frameworks and produce a net saving but the question of our place in Europe would be unresolved as this compromise would disappoint both adamant Remainers and Leavers.

    To determine a final position, a further referendum will be needed. This would have three options:
    1) rejoin the EU
    2) remain in the EEA
    3) leave the single market and customs union. (AV fans this is your moment!)

    However the three positions would need to be fully informed - we cannot repeat the referendum with both sides discrediting the other and the conduct of this referendum will be part of how I am restoring credibility and trust in politics. Therefore the Government will, in partnership with the EU, carry out extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option. As all three options will be Government-approved, the Government will remain strictly neutral throughout the campaign; ministers can support the approach they feel is best. This referendum will take place only when the country has settled experience in the EEA, and has fully weighted and negotiated the alternative options.

    The Government will then throw its weight and enthusiasm behind the option with the greatest support, and there will be an agreed plan of what this will mean and how it will be delivered. The Government will in the meantime seek to address issues raised such as growth and immigration burdens and bringing forward plans to reduce regulation and concrete examples of proposed regulation changes which are only possible outside the single market. These will add clarity to the debate.

    This Government is committed to uniting a divided country; these plans will disappoint some, particularly those who support the current approach, however in seeking a fully implementable plan for leaving the single market we will bring clarity and the time we need to craft such an approach, and there will be the opportunity to secure the mandate for this approach that I have concluded I lack.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    edited October 3
    TimGeo said:

    Johnny Mercer certainly did a great job in shoring up his personal majority at the 2017 GE ( +14.3%) in marginal territory.

    Although given the very high Leave vote (~70%) and 2015 UKIP vote (22%) there, Mercer's increase wasn't particularly better than Tory increases in similar seats.
  • TimGeo said:

    Johnny Mercer certainly did a great job in shoring up his personal majority at the 2017 GE ( +14.3%) in marginal territory.

    And his fellow Plymouth Tory MP lost his seat, which makes Mercer's achievement even more impressive.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    edited October 3
    Just found out Amber Rudd is 54. Two thoughts arise. One she doesn't look bad on it. Two what are her list of achievements which qualify her for the role of PM? It is one thing to skip a generation and bring in a new face without a great deal of baggage, eg, Blair, Cameron. It is another to say you need a steady hand of experience on the tiller. Where does Ms. Rudd fit in? Also from her speech today she can hardly claim to appeal to the Liberal wing, or to young people who will find her attitude to encryption bewildering, and knee jerk censorship disturbing.
    The only reason I can see for her being elected is if Brexit proves to be an intractable mess, and they need a remainer to reverse ferret.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 57,213
    edited October 3

    I suspect the party will unite behind whoever is the Stop Boris/JRM candidate, if you’re not already on Sir Micky Fallon and Jeremy Hunt are worth backing with a few notes.

    Both of those should be backed in the Next PM, not the Next Leader, markets.
    A few weeks ago, I tipped/backed Fallon as next Tory leader at 100/1, he wasn't even listed in the next PM market at that time, which tells you a lot about these markets.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    edited October 3
    dixiedean said:

    Just found out Amber Rudd is 54

    Whaaaat?!

    She's just 7 years younger than May. Wow.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    Raab made some interesting comments before the referendum.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/house/75976/dominic-raab-remain-are-getting-jittery-–-were-winning-debate

    “I think the sensible thing, if it’s very close – within a couple of points – would be to take pause, respect the verdict of the British people and effectively shelve this debate until that point, which I hope is going to be as close to the 2020 election as possible.

    “I think that’s the pragmatic, sensible approach. Then we can all get on with delivering the business of government.”
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    tpfkar said:

    Qn. [snip]

    I would declare that the country was divided like never before, across generations, classes and outlooks. As PM, I would govern for the whole country and my priority was to bring the country together and address the divisions. The referendum result reflected the unease about the EU but it was clear that no consensus was emerging in the country, in parliament or in government about what comes next as reflected in the hung parliament and the contradictory promises of the Leave campaign which are impossible to deliver together.

    Therefore we would adopt a 2 step process. The first step would to be respect the referendum and Article 50 process by leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union. This will remove us from political frameworks and produce a net saving but the question of our place in Europe would be unresolved as this compromise would disappoint both adamant Remainers and Leavers.

    To determine a final position, a further referendum will be needed. This would have three options:
    1) rejoin the EU
    2) remain in the EEA
    3) leave the single market and customs union. (AV fans this is your moment!)

    However the three positions would need to be fully informed - we cannot repeat the referendum with both sides discrediting the other and the conduct of this referendum will be part of how I am restoring credibility and trust in politics. Therefore the Government will, in partnership with the EU, carry out extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option. As all three options will be Government-approved, the Government will remain strictly neutral throughout the campaign; ministers can support the approach they feel is best. This referendum will take place only when the country has settled experience in the EEA, and has fully weighted and negotiated the alternative options.

    The Government will then throw its weight and enthusiasm behind the option with the greatest support, and there will be an agreed plan of what this will mean and how it will be delivered. The Government will in the meantime seek to address issues raised such as growth and immigration burdens and bringing forward plans to reduce regulation and concrete examples of proposed regulation changes which are only possible outside the single market. These will add clarity to the debate.

    This Government is committed to uniting a divided country; these plans will disappoint some, particularly those who support the current approach, however in seeking a fully implementable plan for leaving the single market we will bring clarity and the time we need to craft such an approach, and there will be the opportunity to secure the mandate for this approach that I have concluded I lack.
    nice
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456
    It's widely reported that Crosby told May ffs don't have a general election, so hiring him has a slight look of a signal “look at me, I pay attention to Crosby, not like that other woman“.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    tpfkar said:


    I would declare that the country was divided like never before, across generations, classes and outlooks. As PM, I would govern for the whole country and my priority was to bring the country together and address the divisions. The referendum result reflected the unease about the EU but it was clear that no consensus was emerging in the country, in parliament or in government about what comes next as reflected in the hung parliament and the contradictory promises of the Leave campaign which are impossible to deliver together.

    Therefore we would adopt a 2 step process. The first step would to be respect the referendum and Article 50 process by leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union. This will remove us from political frameworks and produce a net saving but the question of our place in Europe would be unresolved as this compromise would disappoint both adamant Remainers and Leavers.

    To determine a final position, a further referendum will be needed. This would have three options:
    1) rejoin the EU
    2) remain in the EEA
    3) leave the single market and customs union. (AV fans this is your moment!)

    However the three positions would need to be fully informed - we cannot repeat the referendum with both sides discrediting the other and the conduct of this referendum will be part of how I am restoring credibility and trust in politics. Therefore the Government will, in partnership with the EU, carry out extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option. As all three options will be Government-approved, the Government will remain strictly neutral throughout the campaign; ministers can support the approach they feel is best. This referendum will take place only when the country has settled experience in the EEA, and has fully weighted and negotiated the alternative options.

    The Government will then throw its weight and enthusiasm behind the option with the greatest support, and there will be an agreed plan of what this will mean and how it will be delivered. The Government will in the meantime seek to address issues raised such as growth and immigration burdens and bringing forward plans to reduce regulation and concrete examples of proposed regulation changes which are only possible outside the single market. These will add clarity to the debate.

    This Government is committed to uniting a divided country; these plans will disappoint some, particularly those who support the current approach, however in seeking a fully implementable plan for leaving the single market we will bring clarity and the time we need to craft such an approach, and there will be the opportunity to secure the mandate for this approach that I have concluded I lack.

    Well thought through approach. In practice you are leading to a situation where we would stay in the EEA.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,250
    edited October 3
    Afternoon all :)

    Not a market with which I want to be involved. It's analogous to having a bet on next year's Derby now. Back someone because they make one good speech but they could easily make a gaffe or simply not improve.

    I think you have to bet on the circumstances and time of May's departure. Will she jump or will she be pushed ? I find it strange the usual "bright young things" from the backbenches are mentioned. Tom Tugendhat might be the leader after the leader after next and would the Conservatives really choose someone without Ministerial experience even at junior level ?

    If May leaves as Prime Minister are the Conservatives going to involve the members in choosing the next Prime Minister ? Perhaps the Party can offer an incentive to build its membership - £3 to join and a vote to choose the next Prime Minister ?

    If the leadership election occurs because the Party is in Opposition, it becomes a similar but different question as the choice is the person who might one day be PM.

    As with all these contests the question is not who the Party WANTS but who the Party NEEDS. They aren't always one and the same.
  • Well he does have form for this, sort of.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    FF43 said:


    Well thought through approach. In practice you are leading to a situation where we would stay in the EEA.

    Well thought out it may be, but it has a couple of fatal flaws:

    - There was no option of 'leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union.' There could have been an option of negotiating to leave and to apply for membership of the EEA as a non-EU member, with the consent of the four EFTA countries and the 27 other EU countries, although on what timescale that consent could be achieved, and on what terms, is problematic. What's more, it's very unlikely that such consent could have been obtained for a temporary arrangement, as envisaged.

    - There is absolutely no chance at all that our EU friends would countenance "extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option". It's hard enough getting them to agree to negotiate on one option in the current situation.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited October 3
    Ishmael_Z said:

    It's widely reported that Crosby told May ffs don't have a general election, so hiring him has a slight look of a signal “look at me, I pay attention to Crosby, not like that other woman“.

    Crosby and his allies (or his enemies enemies) spun this line after the result. I don't buy it.

    If he didn't think it was a good idea, he wouldn't have put his reputation on the line.

    He could have walked away. Opted out. Not taken small tory donors hard earned cash and delivered them a defeat.

    That's a completely disastrous outcome if you're a PR company.

    Crosby is spinning his way out of a major f*ckup, partly of his own making.

    He should be refunding the money he took from small tory donors.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 678
    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:


    [snip for length]

    Therefore we would adopt a 2 step process. The first step would to be respect the referendum and Article 50 process by leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union. This will remove us from political frameworks and produce a net saving but the question of our place in Europe would be unresolved as this compromise would disappoint both adamant Remainers and Leavers.

    To determine a final position, a further referendum will be needed. This would have three options:
    1) rejoin the EU
    2) remain in the EEA
    3) leave the single market and customs union. (AV fans this is your moment!)

    However the three positions would need to be fully informed - we cannot repeat the referendum with both sides discrediting the other and the conduct of this referendum will be part of how I am restoring credibility and trust in politics. Therefore the Government will, in partnership with the EU, carry out extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option. As all three options will be Government-approved, the Government will remain strictly neutral throughout the campaign; ministers can support the approach they feel is best. This referendum will take place only when the country has settled experience in the EEA, and has fully weighted and negotiated the alternative options.

    The Government will then throw its weight and enthusiasm behind the option with the greatest support, and there will be an agreed plan of what this will mean and how it will be delivered. The Government will in the meantime seek to address issues raised such as growth and immigration burdens and bringing forward plans to reduce regulation and concrete examples of proposed regulation changes which are only possible outside the single market. These will add clarity to the debate.

    This Government is committed to uniting a divided country; these plans will disappoint some, particularly those who support the current approach, however in seeking a fully implementable plan for leaving the single market we will bring clarity and the time we need to craft such an approach, and there will be the opportunity to secure the mandate for this approach that I have concluded I lack.

    Well thought through approach. In practice you are leading to a situation where we would stay in the EEA.
    Yes I think that is exactly where it would end up, classic middle option territory
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    FF43 said:


    Well thought through approach. In practice you are leading to a situation where we would stay in the EEA.

    Well thought out it may be, but it has a couple of fatal flaws:

    - There was no option of 'leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union.' There could have been an option of negotiating to leave and to apply for membership of the EEA as a non-EU member, with the consent of the four EFTA countries and the 27 other EU countries, although on what timescale that consent could be achieved, and on what terms, is problematic. What's more, it's very unlikely that such consent could have been obtained for a temporary arrangement, as envisaged.
    EEA would have to be a permanent arrangement. I think the EU would agree it with a transition (fee and rule-taking on existing arrangements required). But you are right there is a circle to square between what the EU and EFTA will accept and what this hypothetical Remain politician wants to say to a domestic audience.

    - There is absolutely no chance at all that our EU friends would countenance "extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option". It's hard enough getting them to agree to negotiate on one option in the current situation.

    Of course not. It would never happen. The whole point is to get EEA bedded in, people happy to live with it and never get to stage 2.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023

    I suspect the party will unite behind whoever is the Stop Boris/JRM candidate, if you’re not already on Sir Micky Fallon and Jeremy Hunt are worth backing with a few notes.

    Both of those should be backed in the Next PM, not the Next Leader, markets.
    A few weeks ago, I tipped/backed Fallon as next Tory leader at 100/1, he wasn't even listed in the next PM market at that time, which tells you a lot about these markets.
    I'm on Hunt. Boy that would be a big payday for me.

    Seems extremely unlikely mind.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    What time will the lion roar? You may have your opinions on Boris, but he is the only Tory whose speech will be worth watching.
    Even if it is most likely to be the usual bollocks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,832
    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797
    DD gets a good laugh for a jibe at Boris: “We train the World’s best diplomats, then put them to the test by sending them to work for the Foreign Secretary”
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 678

    FF43 said:


    Well thought through approach. In practice you are leading to a situation where we would stay in the EEA.

    Well thought out it may be, but it has a couple of fatal flaws:

    - There was no option of 'leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union.' There could have been an option of negotiating to leave and to apply for membership of the EEA as a non-EU member, with the consent of the four EFTA countries and the 27 other EU countries, although on what timescale that consent could be achieved, and on what terms, is problematic. What's more, it's very unlikely that such consent could have been obtained for a temporary arrangement, as envisaged.

    - There is absolutely no chance at all that our EU friends would countenance "extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option". It's hard enough getting them to agree to negotiate on one option in the current situation.
    Both subject to negotiation but I think the first point will be resolvable with diplomacy and business backing across Europe. The second would be difficult and potentially very expensive. The other flaw is that the EU would have an incentive to make 'rejoin' sweet and 'leave single market' very painful to try to influence the vote - but maybe no bad thing if they realise they have to improve their offer.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420

    I suspect the party will unite behind whoever is the Stop Boris/JRM candidate, if you’re not already on Sir Micky Fallon and Jeremy Hunt are worth backing with a few notes.

    Both of those should be backed in the Next PM, not the Next Leader, markets.
    A few weeks ago, I tipped/backed Fallon as next Tory leader at 100/1, he wasn't even listed in the next PM market at that time, which tells you a lot about these markets.
    I'm on Hunt. Boy that would be a big payday for me.

    Seems extremely unlikely mind.
    Even bigger payday for JC.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,044

    Well he does have form for this, sort of.

    Go Boris!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,832
    @iainmartin1: Lovely Fallon digs at Boris. Says spending £18bn on new defence kit. "That really is £350m per week."
  • stevefstevef Posts: 256
    Corbyn's favourite status as the next PM seems to be based on the assumption that May will fight the next election -probably in 2022.

    There is no basis for the assumption that Corbyn will be the next -or next next PM.

    Hugh Gaitskell was favourite to be the next PM in 1956, post Suez, three years before landslide defeat at the hands of Harold Macmillan in 1959.

    Neil Kinnock was the favourite to be next PM in 1990 at the height of the Poll tax before defeat at the hands of John Major in 1992.

    Beware the poison chalice of being "favourite".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Lovely Fallon digs at Boris. Says spending £18bn on new defence kit. "That really is £350m per week."

    Wake me up when Boris is on.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    Oh for f**** sake, I haven't got a penny on Priti.
  • Oh for f**** sake, I haven't got a penny on Priti.

    I’m laying her. She’s thick as pigshit as a certain clip from QT will show and get a lot of airing if she runs.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,166
    Great selection.....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    Students could choose 'a frugal existence' if they are short of money, says Jo Johnson

    At a fringe meeting at the conference Jo Johnson, the universities minister, said students who were short of money could manage by choosing to live “a frugal existence”. He was responding to Martin Lewis, the MoneySavingExpert.com founder, who said students who only got a maintenance loan of £5,000 could not afford to live on that.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/03/conservative-conference-2017-theresa-may-says-she-does-not-want-yes-men-in-her-cabinet
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023

    Oh for f**** sake, I haven't got a penny on Priti.

    I’m laying her. She’s thick as pigshit as a certain clip from QT will show and get a lot of airing if she runs.
    I'm really not sure that criteria will be a problem. Bet she's got more 'A' levels than Jezza.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    Mirror, mirror on the wall. Who's the Priti-est of them all?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458
    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    If the Tories think a big part of their problem at this election was May's lack of charisma and refusal to give straight answers to questions in interviews, it's not clear to me how Ms Patel is the answer....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    Boris is reading from notes rather than the autocue. Could suggest he's going to go off the agreed script.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    Boris on.

    Rehashing the tired joke about how many jobs Osborne has.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 3,976
    Boris up at Conservative Conference.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487
    tpfkar said:

    Question for those who voted Remain. [snip]


    To determine a final position, a further referendum will be needed. This would have three options:
    1) rejoin the EU
    2) remain in the EEA
    3) leave the single market and customs union. (AV fans this is your moment!)

    The Government will then throw its weight and enthusiasm behind the option with the greatest support, and there will be an agreed plan of what this will mean and how it will be delivered. The Government will in the meantime seek to address issues raised such as growth and immigration burdens and bringing forward plans to reduce regulation and concrete examples of proposed regulation changes which are only possible outside the single market. These will add clarity to the debate.

    This Government is committed to uniting a divided country; these plans will disappoint some, particularly those who support the current approach, however in seeking a fully implementable plan for leaving the single market we will bring clarity and the time we need to craft such an approach, and there will be the opportunity to secure the mandate for this approach that I have concluded I lack.
    In principle, I agree, but what you'd really be voting on is for the UK's preferring negotiating position for its long-term relationship.

    We don't know on what terms we'd be offered to Remain by the EU, EEA-EFTA would need to be the deal on the second (needing acceptance by both the EEA and EFTA) and it's a brand new, bespoke, negotiation with the EU on the last.

    Let's assume the EU and EFTA fully played ball, and laid out all the options on the table, assuming single choice, you'd probably get:

    (1) Remain - 25%
    (2) EEA/EFTA - 35%
    (3) Full Leave - 40%

    Under FPTP, Full Leave wins. Under AV, it's EEA-EFTA.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,561
    Danny565 said:

    Students could choose 'a frugal existence' if they are short of money, says Jo Johnson

    At a fringe meeting at the conference Jo Johnson, the universities minister, said students who were short of money could manage by choosing to live “a frugal existence”. He was responding to Martin Lewis, the MoneySavingExpert.com founder, who said students who only got a maintenance loan of £5,000 could not afford to live on that.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/03/conservative-conference-2017-theresa-may-says-she-does-not-want-yes-men-in-her-cabinet

    or get a job,

    or 1 of a hundred other options.

  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,561
    I mean, a good two dozen universities are in dock towns.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 3,976
    Boris - Corbyn is Caracas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
    Not in favour of AWS. As to my previous remark I was being a smart arse.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    Boris much better at cracking jokes than being FS
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,854
    OT. If this is true and as depicted then it is a new low for the current US administration.

    http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/us_votes_against_un_resolution_condemning_death_penalty_for_blasphemy_adultery_and_same_sex_relations

    "The United States has voted against a United Nations resolution that condemns the use of the death penalty as punishment for a variety of acts, including religious blasphemy, adultery, and same-sex relations."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,832

    Boris is reading from notes rather than the autocue. Could suggest he's going to go off the agreed script.

    @hugorifkind: Is Johnson perhaps using notes instead of an autocue because he wrote two speeches and gave the autocue people the wrong one?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,854

    Oh for f**** sake, I haven't got a penny on Priti.

    I’m laying her. She’s thick as pigshit as a certain clip from QT will show and get a lot of airing if she runs.
    She is in favour of the death penalty. That makes her unsupportable as far as I am concerned.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    3 day week power cuts in 70s were apparently Labours fault according to BJ
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
    Colchester has a big LibDem vote to squeeze (and quite possibly a fair few Labour suppoters who tactically went LD last time in the belief that they were best-placed to beat the Tories), so that surely makes it more marginal than the majority suggests?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617
    stevef said:

    Corbyn's favourite status as the next PM seems to be based on the assumption that May will fight the next election -probably in 2022.

    There is no basis for the assumption that Corbyn will be the next -or next next PM.

    Hugh Gaitskell was favourite to be the next PM in 1956, post Suez, three years before landslide defeat at the hands of Harold Macmillan in 1959.

    Neil Kinnock was the favourite to be next PM in 1990 at the height of the Poll tax before defeat at the hands of John Major in 1992.

    Beware the poison chalice of being "favourite".

    No Corbyn's favourite status is simply due to the Tory contenders being divided while he is the sole Labour candidate.

    In reality it's still less than 1/5 chance that May is replaced by Corbyn which indicates a roughly 4/5 chance that either May gets replaced before the next election or wins the next election and ultimately gets replaced.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    Is BJ still FS

    Doesnt seem to have mentioned it so far
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,199
    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
    "I wholeheartedly agree"
    Maybe you should re-read what Dixie wrote.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,854

    Well he does have form for this, sort of.

    I would have thought that he would be supporting his fellow religious fanatic JRM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,023
    Boris on the attack over Corbyn's marxism.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458
    Danny565 said:

    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
    Colchester has a big LibDem vote to squeeze (and quite possibly a fair few Labour suppoters who tactically went LD last time in the belief that they were best-placed to beat the Tories), so that surely makes it more marginal than the majority suggests?
    Even getting half the Lib Dem vote wouldn't do it - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colchester_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s - and there must be a core of LD loyalists who wouldn't switch. Of course I'm not complacent and it's not impossible Labour could take the seat, but they've just made their job harder by removing a well-known and well-respected Councillor who campaigned well.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617

    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
    "I wholeheartedly agree"
    Maybe you should re-read what Dixie wrote.
    Or take it as intended that Dixie was being sarcastic and meant the opposite of what he literally wrote, in which case agreeing is reasonable.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458

    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
    "I wholeheartedly agree"
    Maybe you should re-read what Dixie wrote.
    So I should! Silly me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617

    Well he does have form for this, sort of.

    I would have thought that he would be supporting his fellow religious fanatic JRM.
    Since when has Boris been a religious fanatic?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,726
    Are the audience still awake??
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458

    Essexit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Essexit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Priti Patel is turning this into a credo speech. I think we can count her in when it comes to the next Tory leadership race

    @janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.

    Maybe the Tories want to be on their third female leader and first ethnic minority leader before Labour or the Lib Dems have had one of either.
    I have a dream. One day a politician may be judged, not by the content of their character, but by the colour of their skin, or by the contents of their underwear.
    I wholeheartedly agree, but this is the world we live in.

    I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.

    They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
    "I wholeheartedly agree"
    Maybe you should re-read what Dixie wrote.
    Or take it as intended that Dixie was being sarcastic and meant the opposite of what he literally wrote, in which case agreeing is reasonable.
    No, in fairness I actually did read it wrong.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487
    Danny565 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just found out Amber Rudd is 54

    Whaaaat?!

    She's just 7 years younger than May. Wow.
    Andrew Leadsom has the misfortune to look older than she is.

    Amber Rudd is the opposite.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,854

    Well he does have form for this, sort of.

    I would have thought that he would be supporting his fellow religious fanatic JRM.
    Since when has Boris been a religious fanatic?
    I was referring to Tim Montgomerie
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    edited October 3

    3 day week power cuts in 70s were apparently Labours fault according to BJ

    Not heard of the Unions, mate? Thought your lot were pro them....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487

    Oh for f**** sake, I haven't got a penny on Priti.

    I’m laying her. She’s thick as pigshit as a certain clip from QT will show and get a lot of airing if she runs.
    For a similar reason, I'm not backing another Tory minister.

    Although she might say that is a disgrace.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited October 3

    OT. If this is true and as depicted then it is a new low for the current US administration.

    http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/us_votes_against_un_resolution_condemning_death_penalty_for_blasphemy_adultery_and_same_sex_relations

    "The United States has voted against a United Nations resolution that condemns the use of the death penalty as punishment for a variety of acts, including religious blasphemy, adultery, and same-sex relations."

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/10/03/why-did-the-us-vote-against-banning-the-death-penalty-for-gay-people/

    "André du Plessis, Head of UN Programme and Advocacy at the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA) explained to PinkNews: “No votes on this resolution as a whole are generally best-interpreted as a position by a country on the death penalty as a whole.

    “It is important to point out that a ‘no’ vote on the resolution is not addressing same-sex relations, but the wider application of death penalty generally.

    “The United States, for example, has the death penalty and has a consistent record of voting no on resolutions that are against it.”

    He added: “We are grateful for the leadership of the eight countries that brought this resolution – Belgium, Benin, Costa Rica, France, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia and Switzerland – countries that come from every corner of the globe showing truly cross-regional support.”

    It's also good to see some more of the more progressive African countries voted yes.
  • Boris bringing me round in this speech. Needed lots more of this
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487
    Corbyn's Britain would be a return to an economy led by producer interests, whilst trying to fool the voters they were actually running the economy in consumer interests.

    You know the endless tube strikes with TfL in London?

    Think of that happening all over again. Nationwide.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,487

    Corbyn's Britain would be a return to an economy led by producer interests, whilst trying to fool the voters they were actually running the economy in consumer interests.

    You know the endless tube strikes with TfL in London?

    Think of that happening all over again. Nationwide.

    PS. Innovation and new technology would also be stifled regularly, as it would be seen as a threat, so you can forget improved productivity and economic growth as well
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 250

    Boris bringing me round in this speech. Needed lots more of this

    It's just stock Tory cliches? Good for a leadership bid but nothing new to interest non-Tories
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617

    Well he does have form for this, sort of.

    I would have thought that he would be supporting his fellow religious fanatic JRM.
    Since when has Boris been a religious fanatic?
    I was referring to Tim Montgomerie
    LOL! That makes much more sense.
  • Boris bringing me round in this speech. Needed lots more of this

    It's just stock Tory cliches? Good for a leadership bid but nothing new to interest non-Tories
    Caracus !!!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438

    Boris bringing me round in this speech. Needed lots more of this

    It's just stock Tory cliches? Good for a leadership bid but nothing new to interest non-Tories
    I think that's a fair comment, actually. The best bits so far are the elegantly-crafted Labour-bashing and Corbyn-bashing bits, and the defence of free markets, but there's no great vision beyond that.
  • He really did throw that speech together at the last moment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797
    edited October 3
    Guido says this is the full text of Boris’ speech
    https://order-order.com/2017/10/03/boris-speech-full-text/#more-277651
    Is this what he actually said, or what he was supposed to say? There’s not a lot of foreign secretary stuff in there.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    Hmm super mediocre.

    He doesn't really seem to believe in it if there's anything he did seem to believe was the transparent bullshit of saying how much better we would be outside the EU.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 783
    Can't stand Boris before and after this speech.
  • jonny83 said:

    Can't stand Boris before and after this speech.

    He may be the next PM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    edited October 3
    The new university funding plan seems very fair to me. Although changing the repayment threshold to £25,000 for all plan II starters.
    Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
    I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on :).

    For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?

    Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.
  • Sky - Barn storming speech
This discussion has been closed.