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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but better than slow death under TMay

In the end BJohnson’s much anticipated conference speech was totally on message and it was hard to find even the most minuscule of difference with the PM. For just about the first time the conference hall was packed and the delegates seemed to be enjoying themselves.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,952
    First! Like Mrs May.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,952
    the smallish number of CON MPs who are at the conference

    One of them is in Chicago.........
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    FPT, but more relevant to this one:

    It looks to me very much as though the net effect of BoJo's interventions over the past couple of weeks has been to damage the Conservative Party and the Brexit negotiations, without furthering his leadership chances.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    Fpt:

    Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.

    I don't see how Boris would destroy Corbyn. Neither does detail, both are lazy and like to talk with big pictures. I doubt there is anything in Boris's armoury that would cause Corbyn a sleepless night. Boris is a polarising figure who has burned up a lot of the goodwill he had created as mayor of London.
    JRM would.

    His clear commmunication abilities are the reason why he is the strongest backbencher on the field.

    Gove would too, but I fear he is too unpopular.

    Again, I don't see a social conservative with very right wing economic views clawing back support among working voters who are seeing their living standards and public services squeezed. Speeches citing Agincourt and Crecy win applause at Tory conferences. I am not sure they seem particularly relevant to people in the real world.

    Generally, rich, privileged politicians telling everyone to be positive and to stop moaning will be OK when the economy is doing well and people are feeling hood about the future. They are less compelling when the storm clouds are gathering.

    Frankly, you rubbish every possible Tory leader on tiny variations of the same boring eeyoridh soundbite. Not sure I give your views on JRM more credence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797

    the smallish number of CON MPs who are at the conference

    One of them is in Chicago.........

    ...unfortunately.

    Can’t we send a J R-M, a Dan Hannan or anyone who can talk positively about a post-Brexit Britain to these things? Hunky Dunky needs to be put on the first plane back home.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617
    edited October 3
    Hard to disagree for once with him.

    May is quite clearly mortally wounded. It may be a terrible rhetorical question but what is the worst that can happen with Boris in charge?

    He twice won Labour-supporting London and he won the Brexit referendum. He is a proven winner who should be given a chance.

    The Tories are going to be judged on how well or not they honour Vote Leave's pledges anyway (like £350 mn a week) so they may as well be led by someone who at least professes to believe in them!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104
    Again, I don't see a social conservative with very right wing economic views clawing back support among working voters who are seeing their living standards and public services squeezed. Speeches citing Agincourt and Crecy win applause at Tory conferences. I am not sure they seem particularly relevant to people in the real world.

    Generally, rich, privileged politicians telling everyone to be positive and to stop moaning will be OK when the economy is doing well and people are feeling hood about the future. They are less compelling when the storm clouds are gathering.



    Frankly, you rubbish every possible Tory leader on tiny variations of the same boring eeyoridh soundbite. Not sure I give your views on JRM more credence.



    Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104
    edited October 3
    Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 864

    Again, I don't see a social conservative with very right wing economic views clawing back support among working voters who are seeing their living standards and public services squeezed. Speeches citing Agincourt and Crecy win applause at Tory conferences. I am not sure they seem particularly relevant to people in the real world.

    Generally, rich, privileged politicians telling everyone to be positive and to stop moaning will be OK when the economy is doing well and people are feeling hood about the future. They are less compelling when the storm clouds are gathering.

    Frankly, you rubbish every possible Tory leader on tiny variations of the same boring eeyoridh soundbite. Not sure I give your views on JRM more credence.



    Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.



    1850s.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    edited October 3



    Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

    You throw around Thatcher as an insult. She was an unbeaten election winner.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617

    Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

    1650s
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063


    Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

    The Treaty of Rome that you hold so dear is anchored very firmly in the 1950s.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424

    the smallish number of CON MPs who are at the conference

    One of them is in Chicago.........

    I don't think that Duncan has ever hidden his pro Remain views. His language was a bit off, but his analysis of Brexit is not far off what many have said on here, including leavers. "kicking the establishment up the arse" is a tantrum.

    He is still an arrogant prick though.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104
    Mortimer said:



    Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

    You throw around Thatcher as an insult. She was an unbeaten election winner.

    Not an insult at all. On a personal level I owe a fair bit tot he changes that Mrs Thatcher oversaw, as I have said on here many times. But it is just a statement of fact that JRM is to the right of her on economics (and probably on social policy, too).

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has very clearly thrown his hat into the leadership ring in the most transparent way possible.

    Actually quite a common reason I imagine - several family members have said the same to me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456

    FPT, but more relevant to this one:

    It looks to me very much as though the net effect of BoJo's interventions over the past couple of weeks has been to damage the Conservative Party and the Brexit negotiations, without furthering his leadership chances.

    Too early to tell, certainly until we see what TM manages tomorrow.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    Fpt
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 15,756

    the smallish number of CON MPs who are at the conference

    One of them is in Chicago.........

    I don't think that Duncan has ever hidden his pro Remain views. His language was a bit off, but his analysis of Brexit is not far off what many have said on here, including leavers. "kicking the establishment up the arse" is a tantrum.

    He is still an arrogant prick though.
    except its the establishment having the tantrum, the voters dont like the direction theyre going in and are demanding a correction

    endless brexit whinges to follow
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,426
    Boris is becoming rather like David Miliband. Constantly running up and ringing the doorbell, but then when he hears someone coming to the door, scarpering at the last minute.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,854
    edited October 3



    Feel free to ignore me. I could be wrong. It could be that voters are desperate for someone to the right of Margaret Thatcher with social views anchored very firmly in the 1950s.

    Nah. Even I agree with you and, his religious views apart, I do like JRM. But he shouldn't getvwithim a hundred miles of being PM.

    I would still like David Davis but accept he is not likely to get the job either by choice or because he cannot enthuse the Tory party.

    Otherwise I think they should be looking to bypass all of the current crop of hopefuls. They all have significant faults. Instead they should be looking to the younger generation. Someone like Mercer or Stewart could reinvigorate the party and the electorate.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    This should make depressed Tories chuckle. Some of our new Corbynite chums down in Horsham are convinced they're are going to take the seat.

    Whilst in an era where we've seen safe seats fall, you can't fail to smile.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    edited October 3
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    Boris is Trump with better hair
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456
    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    The sort of post that gives tokenism a bad name.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 132
    The smart thing for the Conservatives to do is to let May get on and deliver Brexit, use her to absorb all the flack on it, and then appoint someone from the younger generation who would still seem fresh at the 2022 election. Cameron's problem was that he came in too soon and seemed old hash by the time the general election rolled round. They need someone who seems liberal-leaning and economically serious, and can't be mocked for being anti-gay or an ex-lobbyist or anything like that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 13,797
    Danny565 said:

    Boris is becoming rather like David Miliband. Constantly running up and ringing the doorbell, but then when he hears someone coming to the door, scarpering at the last minute.

    Yep, he had the opportunity to stand last year and decided against it, rather like Miliband having his opportunity in 2009 when he was supposed to resign with James Purnell but bottled it at the last minute.

    I’m not sure Boris has half as much support for the leadership within the PCP as he makes out, he’s got far too many skeletons, and if his wife doesn’t trust him why should the party or the country?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 132

    Hard to disagree for once with him.

    May is quite clearly mortally wounded. It may be a terrible rhetorical question but what is the worst that can happen with Boris in charge?

    He twice won Labour-supporting London and he won the Brexit referendum. He is a proven winner who should be given a chance.

    The Tories are going to be judged on how well or not they honour Vote Leave's pledges anyway (like £350 mn a week) so they may as well be led by someone who at least professes to believe in them!

    The worse that can happen is that his clownishness and Remainers anger at him leads to Corbyn getting an outright majority.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 233
    The Tory party is left with 2 unpalatable options. 1. Appoint a hard Brexiter such as Mogg and leave under WTO and hope for best. 2. Appoint a remainer such as Davidson and negotiate a Norway plus deal. Both options could destroy the Tory party. Appointing Boris is to continue the status quo and the pretence that another option exists.

    I am deeply depressed about the Tory party and how it has fallen so far so fast. The only ray of joy is the weakness of the opposition.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    The sort of post that gives tokenism a bad name.
    Wait till you see The Government Diversity Audit next week. Fallon seems keen on increasing the diversity of the Armed Forces. We now have targets for BME recruitment.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    The Tory party is left with 2 unpalatable options. 1. Appoint a hard Brexiter such as Mogg and leave under WTO and hope for best. 2. Appoint a remainer such as Davidson and negotiate a Norway plus deal. Both options could destroy the Tory party. Appointing Boris is to continue the status quo and the pretence that another option exists.

    I am deeply depressed about the Tory party and how it has fallen so far so fast. The only ray of joy is the weakness of the opposition.

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    The commentators who have got every single other part of the Brexit debate wrong could be in for a clean sweep.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,021
    Danny565 said:

    Boris is becoming rather like David Miliband. Constantly running up and ringing the doorbell, but then when he hears someone coming to the door, scarpering at the last minute.

    Maybe we should expect him to be caricatured as the cowardly lion after this speech ?

    He seems to be channeling May's indecisiveness and Cameron's laziness. A modicum of charisma might be necessary in a prospective leader, but it is hardly sufficient.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    The sort of post that gives tokenism a bad name.
    Wait till you see The Government Diversity Audit next week. Fallon seems keen on increasing the diversity of the Armed Forces. We now have targets for BME recruitment.

    Are you in the TA as well as the NHS? Kudos!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063
    Jonathan said:

    Boris is Trump with better hair

    Boris won Labour London TWICE
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Elliot said:

    Hard to disagree for once with him.

    May is quite clearly mortally wounded. It may be a terrible rhetorical question but what is the worst that can happen with Boris in charge?

    He twice won Labour-supporting London and he won the Brexit referendum. He is a proven winner who should be given a chance.

    The Tories are going to be judged on how well or not they honour Vote Leave's pledges anyway (like £350 mn a week) so they may as well be led by someone who at least professes to believe in them!

    The worse that can happen is that his clownishness and Remainers anger at him leads to Corbyn getting an outright majority.
    I think that quite likely whoever is in Number 10.

    Brexit is totemic, but carries a lot of baggage that the young do not like. There will be a backlash. The Spectator did a good article the other day:

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is Trump with better hair

    Boris won Labour London TWICE
    Yup. So what. Much like Trump he has some reach beyond his natural base.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Mortimer said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    The sort of post that gives tokenism a bad name.
    Wait till you see The Government Diversity Audit next week. Fallon seems keen on increasing the diversity of the Armed Forces. We now have targets for BME recruitment.

    Are you in the TA as well as the NHS? Kudos!
    I meant we in the British sense, not personally.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Mortimer said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    The sort of post that gives tokenism a bad name.
    Wait till you see The Government Diversity Audit next week. Fallon seems keen on increasing the diversity of the Armed Forces. We now have targets for BME recruitment.

    Are you in the TA as well as the NHS? Kudos!
    I meant we in the British sense, not personally.
    Ah, I see. Sorry, wrong end of stick.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Mortimer said:

    The Tory party is left with 2 unpalatable options. 1. Appoint a hard Brexiter such as Mogg and leave under WTO and hope for best. 2. Appoint a remainer such as Davidson and negotiate a Norway plus deal. Both options could destroy the Tory party. Appointing Boris is to continue the status quo and the pretence that another option exists.

    I am deeply depressed about the Tory party and how it has fallen so far so fast. The only ray of joy is the weakness of the opposition.

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    The commentators who have got every single other part of the Brexit debate wrong could be in for a clean sweep.
    So what bits should our government compromise on?

    Compromise does not mean getting your own way!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Mortimer said:

    The Tory party is left with 2 unpalatable options. 1. Appoint a hard Brexiter such as Mogg and leave under WTO and hope for best. 2. Appoint a remainer such as Davidson and negotiate a Norway plus deal. Both options could destroy the Tory party. Appointing Boris is to continue the status quo and the pretence that another option exists.

    I am deeply depressed about the Tory party and how it has fallen so far so fast. The only ray of joy is the weakness of the opposition.

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    The commentators who have got every single other part of the Brexit debate wrong could be in for a clean sweep.
    So what bits should our government compromise on?

    Compromise does not mean getting your own way!
    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,021
    Scott_P said:
    Perhaps - but have we seen May nadir yet ?

  • PongPong Posts: 4,277
    edited October 3
    I'm trying to find any issues/votes which have me on the same side as JRM;

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24926/jacob_rees-mogg/north_east_somerset/votes

    The only things that stick out are;

    "for higher taxes on plane tickets"
    "against greater regulation of gambling"
    "for new high speed rail infrastructure"

    That's pretty much it. On every other issue I'm ether ambivalent about it or have strong opinion the other way.

    His worldview is almost entirely opposite to mine.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Perhaps - but have we seen May nadir yet ?

    Is anyone in hostage negotiations to release the captive May?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,149
    The slow death can be a great nickname, but not in this instance obviously.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    edited October 3
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    The sort of post that gives tokenism a bad name.
    Wait till you see The Government Diversity Audit next week. Fallon seems keen on increasing the diversity of the Armed Forces. We now have targets for BME recruitment.

    Are you in the TA as well as the NHS? Kudos!
    I meant we in the British sense, not personally.
    Ah, I see. Sorry, wrong end of stick.
    Though closer than you think. I was accepted into the Defence Medical Services as a Medical Student, but didnt take up the commission. I was too unsure about my own career direction to want to be tied down.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,095
    Elliot said:

    The smart thing for the Conservatives to do is to let May get on and deliver Brexit, use her to absorb all the flack on it, and then appoint someone from the younger generation who would still seem fresh at the 2022 election. Cameron's problem was that he came in too soon and seemed old hash by the time the general election rolled round. They need someone who seems liberal-leaning and economically serious, and can't be mocked for being anti-gay or an ex-lobbyist or anything like that.

    But she is incapable of doing that. Essentially she is

    First! Like Mrs May.....

    ...in quitting her job after her GE17 flop which has smashed her confidence.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    The sort of post that gives tokenism a bad name.
    Wait till you see The Government Diversity Audit next week. Fallon seems keen on increasing the diversity of the Armed Forces. We now have targets for BME recruitment.

    Are you in the TA as well as the NHS? Kudos!
    I meant we in the British sense, not personally.
    Ah, I see. Sorry, wrong end of stick.
    Though closer than you think. I was accepted into the Defence Medical Services as a Medical Student, but didnt take up the commission. I was too unsure about my own career direction to want to be tied down.
    Not a Tory cabinet minister then, they like to be tied down.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,032

    Again, I don't see a social conservative with very right wing economic views clawing back support among working voters who are seeing their living standards and public services squeezed.

    This assumes that working voters think that right wing economic views are worse for them in the long run. A lot completely disagree with that notion.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The Tory party is left with 2 unpalatable options. 1. Appoint a hard Brexiter such as Mogg and leave under WTO and hope for best. 2. Appoint a remainer such as Davidson and negotiate a Norway plus deal. Both options could destroy the Tory party. Appointing Boris is to continue the status quo and the pretence that another option exists.

    I am deeply depressed about the Tory party and how it has fallen so far so fast. The only ray of joy is the weakness of the opposition.

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    The commentators who have got every single other part of the Brexit debate wrong could be in for a clean sweep.
    So what bits should our government compromise on?

    Compromise does not mean getting your own way!
    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?
    Not much as I recall (hence why I have long expected WTO Brexit, in March 2019).

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456
    Scott_P said:
    Fortunately there are no well known incidents of Islam putting in the mouths of Cabinet ministers words the minister never actually said. Or hardly any.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,277

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is Trump with better hair

    Boris won Labour London TWICE
    In 2012 he would have lost to other Labour candidates.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 2,812
    edited October 3
    It worked far better for Boris when he was a liberal - the endearingly bumbling Etonian who supported amnesties for illegal immigrants seemed a refreshing novelty. He seriously miscalculated when he chose to be the face of Brexit. Had he campaigned for Remain with dedication and gusto, he could then have the done the 'I'm sad we're leaving but the people have spoken' thing (who better than Boris to pull that off?). Remainers and Leavers would have united behind him, and he would now be PM with a massive majority. An opportunity lost.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,815
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The Tory party is left with 2 unpalatable options. 1. Appoint a hard Brexiter such as Mogg and leave under WTO and hope for best. 2. Appoint a remainer such as Davidson and negotiate a Norway plus deal. Both options could destroy the Tory party. Appointing Boris is to continue the status quo and the pretence that another option exists.

    I am deeply depressed about the Tory party and how it has fallen so far so fast. The only ray of joy is the weakness of the opposition.

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    The commentators who have got every single other part of the Brexit debate wrong could be in for a clean sweep.
    So what bits should our government compromise on?

    Compromise does not mean getting your own way!
    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?
    Why would the EU be wanting to compromise? Its the UK wanting a new arrangement where we can have our cake and eat it. Maybe they want to have their cake and eat it too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686

    It worked far better for Boris when he was a liberal - the endearingly bumbling Etonian who supported amnesties for illegal immigrants seemed a refreshing novelty. He seriously miscalculated when he chose to be the face of Brexit. Had he campaigned for Remain with dedication and gusto, he could then have the done the 'I'm sad we're leaving but the people have spoken' thing (who better than Boris to pull that off?). Remainers and Leavers would have united behind him, and he would now be PM with a massive majority. An opportunity lost.

    What an extraordinary period of British politics we are in. Sadly.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Off topic, a great article here from Jess Phillips on her family experience of UC.



    Jess is as ambitious enough, would be a great leader.

    I note Priti set out her stall today too.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Yes I see the issue, for what very little it is worth. I just don't think it is that interesting or important. The Tories just aren't that vulnerable on gay rights, what with Duncan himself having come out yonks ago and still having had a career. And if you think the yoof think differently, forget it, being gay is ancient history; transgenderism is the issue du jour.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Replacing was your word...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Yes I see the issue, for what very little it is worth. I just don't think it is that interesting or important. The Tories just aren't that vulnerable on gay rights, what with Duncan himself having come out yonks ago and still having had a career. And if you think the yoof think differently, forget it, being gay is ancient history; transgenderism is the issue du jour.
    I resent your use of the masculine for 'jour'.

    As for the Duncan-JRM swap there is currently plenty of scope for the Cons to increase their nasty quotient.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Replacing was your word...
    In government.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,456
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Yes I see the issue, for what very little it is worth. I just don't think it is that interesting or important. The Tories just aren't that vulnerable on gay rights, what with Duncan himself having come out yonks ago and still having had a career. And if you think the yoof think differently, forget it, being gay is ancient history; transgenderism is the issue du jour.
    I resent your use of the masculine for 'jour'.

    As for the Duncan-JRM swap there is currently plenty of scope for the Cons to increase their nasty quotient.
    No: la journee, but le jour.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,999

    Off topic, a great article here from Jess Phillips on her family experience of UC.



    Jess is as ambitious enough, would be a great leader.

    I note Priti set out her stall today too.

    Thanks for sharing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Replacing was your word...
    In government.
    How convenient for your false equivalency argument. :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,686
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Replacing was your word...
    In government.
    How convenient for your false equivalency argument. :)
    May sacks Duncan and promotes JRM at the same time and sorry you think the story will be about what?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Replacing was your word...
    In government.
    How convenient for your false equivalency argument. :)
    May sacks Duncan and promotes JRM at the same time and sorry you think the story will be about what?
    An offensive comment made about Leave voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fpt

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    Yep replacing someone who is married and gay with someone who fundamentally disagrees with gay marriage should do wonders for cohesion and stability across the party and country.
    Utterly, utterly irrelevant to the issue at hand.

    Being that offensive to people because of how they voted is not acceptable.

    If you think the optics of that are irrelevant, regardless of your own views on the matter, then you have much to learn about politics in general and the perception of the Conservative Party today in particular.
    Says the person who thinks Duncan is in the cabinet....
    When did I say that? You said sack Duncan and promote JRM to cabinet. To which I responded.

    And @Ishmael_Z you really don't see the issue? Amazing.
    Replacing was your word...
    In government.
    How convenient for your false equivalency argument. :)
    May sacks Duncan and promotes JRM at the same time and sorry you think the story will be about what?
    An offensive comment made about Leave voters.
    I reckon that May is too weak to sack. It will be interesting to see, but Duncan is not far from Soubry or Morgan on the continuity Remain wing of the Tories. May needs their support.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,361
    A minor point on this:it's very common for many MPs on both sides to skip the conference. It's seen as a chance for the leadership to talk to the grass roots, and the temptation is to let them get on with it and catch up on constituency stuff (or even on a holiday). The exception is if you're maneuvering for a leadership bid soon, or you're among the minority who just like the event.

    A more serious issue is that quite a few exhibitors skipped it too - the hall was distinctly lighter than last year - and my impression is that there were fewer delegates too, though I might be wrong about that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,854

    The Tory party is left with 2 unpalatable options. 1. Appoint a hard Brexiter such as Mogg and leave under WTO and hope for best. 2. Appoint a remainer such as Davidson and negotiate a Norway plus deal. Both options could destroy the Tory party. Appointing Boris is to continue the status quo and the pretence that another option exists.

    I am deeply depressed about the Tory party and how it has fallen so far so fast. The only ray of joy is the weakness of the opposition.

    I don't care about the Tory party at all. As we said before about Labour and the Lib Dems, no party has a god given right to survive or thrive. If the Tory party collapses or splits then a new party or parties will take its place. Just because the Tories are not there does not mean there will be any fewer right of centre voters. What matters is principles not parties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,113
    edited October 3

    Off topic, a great article here from Jess Phillips on her family experience of UC.



    Jess is as ambitious enough, would be a great leader.

    I note Priti set out her stall today too.

    Good article from an MP who has contact with people actually going through the process of claiming Universal Credit.As she says the problem is the complex cases , and this needs to be sorted out before any mass roll out to existing claimants .If they can not sort it out on new claimants, then pause until you can.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    The EU?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 149

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is Trump with better hair

    Boris won Labour London TWICE
    To be fair he won by building up huge margins in outer boroughs like Havering, Bromley, Bexley and Hillingdon offsetting often large losses to Livingstone in inner London. That is the Tories problem now in London - their only solid base of support is in leave voting areas in zones 5 and 6. Won't win them the Mayoralty and rather limits your general election seats opportunities.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 881
    Heard him blathering on about speaking to young people all over the world; has he spoken to the young people of this country whose future he's royally shafted? To hear some of the Tories on the radio saying how they need him as he can appeal to the youth was risible.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    The EU?
    Which is far more than a trade bloc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    edited October 3
    CNN - vegas shooter wired $100k to Philippines

    The story just gets weirder and weirder.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 11,617
    Elliot said:

    Hard to disagree for once with him.

    May is quite clearly mortally wounded. It may be a terrible rhetorical question but what is the worst that can happen with Boris in charge?

    He twice won Labour-supporting London and he won the Brexit referendum. He is a proven winner who should be given a chance.

    The Tories are going to be judged on how well or not they honour Vote Leave's pledges anyway (like £350 mn a week) so they may as well be led by someone who at least professes to believe in them!

    The worse that can happen is that his clownishness and Remainers anger at him leads to Corbyn getting an outright majority.
    That's already likely to happen with the way May is drifting along.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 132

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    Australia and New Zealand.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 132
    Chris_A said:

    Heard him blathering on about speaking to young people all over the world; has he spoken to the young people of this country whose future he's royally shafted? To hear some of the Tories on the radio saying how they need him as he can appeal to the youth was risible.

    The young people of this country have been far more shafted by tuition fees and housing cost than Brexit. That is why Corbyn has got away with it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424
    Elliot said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    Australia and New Zealand.
    Freedom of movement is part of that as I recall.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 881

    Off topic, a great article here from Jess Phillips on her family experience of UC.



    Jess is as ambitious enough, would be a great leader.

    I note Priti set out her stall today too.

    You had me thinking of ulcerative colitis!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 379
    I am amused reading some of the comments on here.

    I think Brexit supporters are seriously deluded if they think the EU will give the UK a good deal. I don't think it is in their (the EU) interests to offer any deal at all. It will either be stay as we are or leave in a disorderly fashion. My reasoning is simple: Firstly, just look at how the Eurozone countries like Greece have suffered and the EU has just ploughed on regardless. What hope of a deal for a country leaving the EU entirely, the Eurozone bailouts are repayable and they are committed to Eurozone membership and EU membership. Secondly, the EU institutions and the power they wield are not going to countenance any diminution in power by countries exiting, it is simply not in their interests to do so.

    How I think this will play out is nothing will happen until the UKs MEPs elected term finishes in 2019. Then Johnson, who will be PM will advise he has tried negotiating and we cannot have our cake and eat it and will say it is not a wise path to follow and recommend continued membership with a few tweaks. If we stay in the EU I expect MEPs will not be elected using any form of PR but FPTP, which historically has killed parties before they got a toehold. UKIP and its remnants will be dead and their will be no platform for them to easily re-establish. Ultimately as professor Vernon Bogdanor has commented, a second referendum is likely. On this second referendum in my opinion Boris will be on the remain side.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 132

    Elliot said:

    Hard to disagree for once with him.

    May is quite clearly mortally wounded. It may be a terrible rhetorical question but what is the worst that can happen with Boris in charge?

    He twice won Labour-supporting London and he won the Brexit referendum. He is a proven winner who should be given a chance.

    The Tories are going to be judged on how well or not they honour Vote Leave's pledges anyway (like £350 mn a week) so they may as well be led by someone who at least professes to believe in them!

    The worse that can happen is that his clownishness and Remainers anger at him leads to Corbyn getting an outright majority.
    That's already likely to happen with the way May is drifting along.
    Which is why the Conservatives should choose a new younger leader a year before the next election. They need someone who openly breaks with May and says they are happy to be a citizen of the world. Announce a substantial youth-friendly policy every month until the election, while reassuring the economically sensible, and they would romp home against Corbyn. It would be too soon for the rabid right to get upset and the animosity of the young would be diffused so turnout falls among them.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,424

    I am amused reading some of the comments on here.

    I think Brexit supporters are seriously deluded if they think the EU will give the UK a good deal. I don't think it is in their (the EU) interests to offer any deal at all. It will either be stay as we are or leave in a disorderly fashion. My reasoning is simple: Firstly, just look at how the Eurozone countries like Greece have suffered and the EU has just ploughed on regardless. What hope of a deal for a country leaving the EU entirely, the Eurozone bailouts are repayable and they are committed to Eurozone membership and EU membership. Secondly, the EU institutions and the power they wield are not going to countenance any diminution in power by countries exiting, it is simply not in their interests to do so.

    How I think this will play out is nothing will happen until the UKs MEPs elected term finishes in 2019. Then Johnson, who will be PM will advise he has tried negotiating and we cannot have our cake and eat it and will say it is not a wise path to follow and recommend continued membership with a few tweaks. If we stay in the EU I expect MEPs will not be elected using any form of PR but FPTP, which historically has killed parties before they got a toehold. UKIP and its remnants will be dead and their will be no platform for them to easily re-establish. Ultimately as professor Vernon Bogdanor has commented, a second referendum is likely. On this second referendum in my opinion Boris will be on the remain side.

    Boris did once advocate voting Leave, then negotiate a better deal to Remain.

    Which is the real Boris? that one or the hard Brexiteer? Tories better be sure...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    Who said anything about a completely open border?

    But at the same time, who has ever struck a trade deal from a position of total pre-existing regulatory equivlence.

    And also, who needs £10bn a year?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,063
    justin124 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris is Trump with better hair

    Boris won Labour London TWICE
    In 2012 he would have lost to other Labour candidates.
    But he didn't lose the election. So there :p
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 417
    edited October 3

    If we stay in the EU I expect MEPs will not be elected using any form of PR but FPTP, which historically has killed parties before they got a toehold.

    Except that it's an EU requirement that elections for MEPs be held by some form of PR. If by some miracle the UK does stay in the EU, it won't ever be getting any sort of opt-out again.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    Who said anything about a completely open border?
    Theresa May - https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-florence-speech-a-new-era-of-cooperation-and-partnership-between-the-uk-and-the-eu

    As part of this, we and the EU have committed to protecting the Belfast Agreement and the Common Travel Area and, looking ahead, we have both stated explicitly that we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,016
    CNN expert is speculating that to get those guns, book a suitable suite given the big event was on, etc etc etc he must have been planning this for several months.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 610
    The battle lines are set leavers are leavers, remainers are remainers, we have two parties who are either incompetant or crazy. They remain our only choice, both will ruin the country based on dogma, how do we get out of this mess?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    Who said anything about a completely open border?
    Theresa May - https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-florence-speech-a-new-era-of-cooperation-and-partnership-between-the-uk-and-the-eu

    As part of this, we and the EU have committed to protecting the Belfast Agreement and the Common Travel Area and, looking ahead, we have both stated explicitly that we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border.
    Physically open, but completely? That seems to have been in your imagination....


    Quelle surprise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,698
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    Who said anything about a completely open border?
    Theresa May - https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-florence-speech-a-new-era-of-cooperation-and-partnership-between-the-uk-and-the-eu

    As part of this, we and the EU have committed to protecting the Belfast Agreement and the Common Travel Area and, looking ahead, we have both stated explicitly that we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border.
    Physically open, but completely? That seems to have been in your imagination....

    Quelle surprise.
    How can a border with no physical infrastructure be closed in any way?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,101

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    It will be downright hilarious on here when a decent compromise deal is struck.

    Mortimer said:

    And the EU have compromised where, exactly?

    So how exactly do you expect this deal to be done and what do you expect it to look like?
    I suspect it'll be rather similar to Mrs May's speech, give of take a few billion.

    The EU is basically unprincipled; but they are short of cash. The negotiations will proceed on that basis.
    And the solution for Northern Ireland will be?
    A free trade deal....
    Which free trade deal anywhere in the world facilitates a completely open border?
    Who said anything about a completely open border?
    Theresa May - https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pms-florence-speech-a-new-era-of-cooperation-and-partnership-between-the-uk-and-the-eu

    As part of this, we and the EU have committed to protecting the Belfast Agreement and the Common Travel Area and, looking ahead, we have both stated explicitly that we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border.
    Physically open, but completely? That seems to have been in your imagination....

    Quelle surprise.
    How can a border with no physical infrastructure be closed in any way?
    The opposite of completely open is not closed.

    Self certification, digital infrastructure etc etc.
This discussion has been closed.