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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a succ

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a successor is in place by Christmas

The only question being asked that matters in British – nay European – politics tonight: does Mrs May survive?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,445
    !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 57,198
    edited October 5
    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    It's like musical chairs. All the contestants get agitated when the hand is hovering over the off switch.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    edited October 5

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    And I'll repeat my reply. Of the myriad reasons to oust her, if "too soft on Brexit" is the reason then they are f"""ing insane. The country is sick of hearing about it.
    More Brexit masturbation at the expense of housing, wages, et al is the quickest way to PM Corbyn.
  • dixiedean said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    And I'll repeat my reply. Of the myriad reasons to oust her, if "too soft on Brexit" is the reason then they are f"""ing insane. The country is sick of hearing about it.
    Well Tory Leavers assured me the only way to unite the Tory party was for Leave to win.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,819
    dixiedean said:

    they are f"""ing insane.

    This has been established beyond any doubt
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 783
    Fighting over Europe yet again, deja vu.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992
    Well it seems the Tory party us going for the most painful route to replace May.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 614
    dixiedean said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    And I'll repeat my reply. Of the myriad reasons to oust her, if "too soft on Brexit" is the reason then they are f"""ing insane. The country is sick of hearing about it.
    More Brexit masturbation at the expense of housing, wages, et al is the quickest way to PM Corbyn.
    Absolutely. Get on with it and remove her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 14,304
    Who does Ed Vaizey want to be Theresa's replacement? Because I can't see it being Boris......
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    O/T

    "Uncovering the abyss
    Kazuo Ishiguro, a Nobel laureate for these muddled times

    Dealing in self-deception and distortion, his works chime in an era of “alternative facts”

    https://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2017/10/uncovering-abyss
  • Who does Ed Vaizey want to be Theresa's replacement? Because I can't see it being Boris......

    Anyone but Boris and JRM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,484

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,096
    Jonathan said:

    Well it seems the Tory party us going for the most painful route to replace May.

    We're just toying with you. Wouldn't want to prove your favourite 'office but not in power' phrase incorrect too easily.
  • I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 14,304
    If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......
  • If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......

    Nah, Remainer May would have beaten Leaver Boris if it had gone to the members according to YouGov.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.

    If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......

    Nah, Remainer May would have beaten Leaver Boris if it had gone to the members according to YouGov.
    Yes, but what of the 4 you named? Would any of them beat Boris?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,539

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Dave doesn't feel aggrieved at what happened to George?
  • dixiedean said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.

    If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......

    Nah, Remainer May would have beaten Leaver Boris if it had gone to the members according to YouGov.
    Yes, but what of the 4 you named? Would any of them beat Boris?
    I think all but Hammond would.

    But I'm not sure Boris will make it to the final two.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,484

    dixiedean said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.

    If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......

    Nah, Remainer May would have beaten Leaver Boris if it had gone to the members according to YouGov.
    Yes, but what of the 4 you named? Would any of them beat Boris?
    I think all but Hammond would.

    But I'm not sure Boris will make it to the final two.
    Hunt.
  • rkrkrk said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Dave doesn't feel aggrieved at what happened to George?
    I'm sure he does, but Dave, like George, is a party man, and he also doing his best to stop Corbyn becoming PM.

    Mrs May undoubtedly regrets her stupidity and gracelessness in sacking Mr Osborne now.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,822

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,539

    dixiedean said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.

    If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......

    Nah, Remainer May would have beaten Leaver Boris if it had gone to the members according to YouGov.
    Yes, but what of the 4 you named? Would any of them beat Boris?
    I think all but Hammond would.

    But I'm not sure Boris will make it to the final two.
    If not Boris - then surely there will be a leaver in there...
    If it's true Davis is out - then who is left? Fox? Patel? Gove?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 14,304

    If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......

    Nah, Remainer May would have beaten Leaver Boris if it had gone to the members according to YouGov.
    Much water under the bridge since then.

    But Boris shot his own feet off in 2016 by withdrawing. What I want to know, as a member of the electorate that will decide the next PM is this: if Boris wasn't putting himself forward in 2016 (for undisclosed reasons), what is so fundamentally different in Boris the candidate being right for PM in 2017? If Boris really has ambitions for the top job, he needs a very convincing answer to that question.

    And Gove would also need to have a convincing answer as to why he would support him this time.

    I really don't think a year as Foreign Secretary is any answer.

    Is Boris REALLY a candidate this time around? How?
  • I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
    If Hunt or Fallon win, I'm in serious money, ok on Hammond and Rudd.

    I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,581

    Who does Ed Vaizey want to be Theresa's replacement? Because I can't see it being Boris......

    Anyone but Boris and JRM.
    Liam Fox and Andrea Leadsom in the final two just for the lolz.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,539

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
    If Hunt or Fallon win, I'm in serious money, ok on Hammond and Rudd.

    I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
    JRM my worst result. Ruth is next, then Boris.
    Otherwise green with big wins on Hunt or Rory Stewart. Was green on Boris but laying at 6.2 seems value given he can't have had the votes to get to final 2 last time and has surely pissed off a few since then.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 783
    AndyJS said:
    "Mr Pritchard voiced loyalty to Mrs May, with an apparent disparaging reference to Boris Johnson: “Better to have a prime minister who coughs during one speech than someone who wants to be prime minister who makes most audiences splutter in most of his speeches.”"

    lol so true.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,822

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
    If Hunt or Fallon win, I'm in serious money, ok on Hammond and Rudd.

    I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
    I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.
  • I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
    If Hunt or Fallon win, I'm in serious money, ok on Hammond and Rudd.

    I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
    I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.
    Fallon is worth a punt, he's a proper Thatcherite, which will play well with the Leavers.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,539

    If it is a Remainer or Boris - it's Boris, Ed......

    Nah, Remainer May would have beaten Leaver Boris if it had gone to the members according to YouGov.
    Much water under the bridge since then.

    But Boris shot his own feet off in 2016 by withdrawing. What I want to know, as a member of the electorate that will decide the next PM is this: if Boris wasn't putting himself forward in 2016 (for undisclosed reasons), what is so fundamentally different in Boris the candidate being right for PM in 2017? If Boris really has ambitions for the top job, he needs a very convincing answer to that question.

    And Gove would also need to have a convincing answer as to why he would support him this time.

    I really don't think a year as Foreign Secretary is any answer.

    Is Boris REALLY a candidate this time around? How?
    Yes I have been wondering about this.

    Boris must have known without Gove support (or with Gove in race) he couldn't get enough MPs to make final two. I agree little has changed since last year - if anything I would imagine a few are furious with his undermining of May.

    I can't imagine there wouldn't be a leave candidate - but if you think May is too soft on Brexit - surely Boris is still a big risk... he nearly came down for Remain and there is at least a suspicion he doesn't believe in Brexit...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844
    kle4 said:



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
    As some of us have been saying it needs to be someone from a much younger intake - someone not associated with either Leave or Remain in a high profile manner.

    I would still suggest the best way to handle this is have Davis as a caretaker and then have someone like Stewart or Mercer take over. Of course the claim would come back that neither of them have any great experience with high office. The obvious response to that is neither has Corbyn.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,822

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
    If Hunt or Fallon win, I'm in serious money, ok on Hammond and Rudd.

    I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
    I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.
    What I would say to people is that if you think May will go soon, then have a look at next PM betting because the market is made by Corbyn and JRM, and there are wild disparities on most of the rest.
  • kle4 said:



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
    As some of us have been saying it needs to be someone from a much younger intake - someone not associated with either Leave or Remain in a high profile manner.

    I would still suggest the best way to handle this is have Davis as a caretaker and then have someone like Stewart or Mercer take over. Of course the claim would come back that neither of them have any great experience with high office. The obvious response to that is neither has Corbyn.
    I watched Blade Runner 2049 this afternoon.

    It did live up to the hype.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 12,844

    kle4 said:



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
    As some of us have been saying it needs to be someone from a much younger intake - someone not associated with either Leave or Remain in a high profile manner.

    I would still suggest the best way to handle this is have Davis as a caretaker and then have someone like Stewart or Mercer take over. Of course the claim would come back that neither of them have any great experience with high office. The obvious response to that is neither has Corbyn.
    I watched Blade Runner 2049 this afternoon.

    It did live up to the hype.
    Thanks TSE

    I must admit all the responses I have been seeing on the forums back that up. These are fanatical fans of the original and are coming out saying this is easily as good if not better. I am hoping to see it this weekend.
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 107
    What the plotters forget in their desire to replace May with a "true brexiteer" is that a hard or clean brexit will never get through the Commons. The trouble also is that a so called soft brexit will be met with the most fearsome cries of betrayal by a powerful clique in the Party and could even bring down the Govt. Best leave May in situ and then have a fresh start after April 2019.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    kle4 said:



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
    As some of us have been saying it needs to be someone from a much younger intake - someone not associated with either Leave or Remain in a high profile manner.
    .
    I think that would be best, although that was on the assumption they would take over in 2019. It'd be nice to see a relatively new face surprise at this juncture.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    peterbuss said:

    What the plotters forget in their desire to replace May with a "true brexiteer"

    What they really forget is that level of personal Brexitness hasn't really factored into May's problems really, at least as I see it.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
    If Hunt or Fallon win, I'm in serious money, ok on Hammond and Rudd.

    I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
    I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.
    Fallon is worth a punt, he's a proper Thatcherite, which will play well with the Leavers.
    Given recent issues polling, a proper Thatcherite would be Corbyn's wet dream.
  • kle4 said:



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
    As some of us have been saying it needs to be someone from a much younger intake - someone not associated with either Leave or Remain in a high profile manner.

    I would still suggest the best way to handle this is have Davis as a caretaker and then have someone like Stewart or Mercer take over. Of course the claim would come back that neither of them have any great experience with high office. The obvious response to that is neither has Corbyn.
    I watched Blade Runner 2049 this afternoon.

    It did live up to the hype.
    Thanks TSE

    I must admit all the responses I have been seeing on the forums back that up. These are fanatical fans of the original and are coming out saying this is easily as good if not better. I am hoping to see it this weekend.
    I'd like to explain why it was so brilliant, but it would involve spoilers, but for a near three hour film, not once did I look at my watch.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 783

    kle4 said:



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
    As some of us have been saying it needs to be someone from a much younger intake - someone not associated with either Leave or Remain in a high profile manner.

    I would still suggest the best way to handle this is have Davis as a caretaker and then have someone like Stewart or Mercer take over. Of course the claim would come back that neither of them have any great experience with high office. The obvious response to that is neither has Corbyn.
    I watched Blade Runner 2049 this afternoon.

    It did live up to the hype.
    Good to hear, should be watching this later this week. Reviews are very positive (not that I pay that much attention to reviews these days).
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 107


    I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.

    Sadly John there will never be enough time in the eyes of brexiteers for Hammond to be proved right as however much the economy continues its southward course they will never attribute it to brexit.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052

    kle4 said:



    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Well who is an option then?
    As some of us have been saying it needs to be someone from a much younger intake - someone not associated with either Leave or Remain in a high profile manner.

    I would still suggest the best way to handle this is have Davis as a caretaker and then have someone like Stewart or Mercer take over. Of course the claim would come back that neither of them have any great experience with high office. The obvious response to that is neither has Corbyn.
    I watched Blade Runner 2049 this afternoon.

    It did live up to the hype.
    Thanks TSE

    I must admit all the responses I have been seeing on the forums back that up. These are fanatical fans of the original and are coming out saying this is easily as good if not better. I am hoping to see it this weekend.
    I'd like to explain why it was so brilliant, but it would involve spoilers, but for a near three hour film, not once did I look at my watch.
    Does you need to watch the original to enjoy the new one?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    They'll get some big prices on that lot. It is not really a prediction so much as a wish-list.
    If Hunt or Fallon win, I'm in serious money, ok on Hammond and Rudd.

    I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
    I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.
    Fallon is worth a punt, he's a proper Thatcherite, which will play well with the Leavers.
    I think Fallon might self combust laying into Corbyn.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,313

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
  • Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    She would have to appoint a deputy leader in case she loses her seat, then it'd be clear for her Majesty who to ask to form a government (in the improbable event the Tories are largest party again).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I see on wikipedia one of his middle names is 'Streynsham'. Quite striking.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 18,345

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    Heidi Allen.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 18,345

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    I don't think her majority matters much. If the Tories win, she'll hold her seat. If they don't, she won't, but it won't matter.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 490
    Ed Vaizey? Really? The man who gave BT over a billion quid not to solve the rural broadband challenge?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I see on wikipedia one of his middle names is 'Streynsham'. Quite striking.
    And his wife is Chinese.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,539
    The next election is 4 and a half years away. Anyone who cites "the polling" (which isn't even actually that bad - take a look at some of Thatcher's ratings a year into a new parliament) as a reason to change PM needs their head examining.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,822

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    I thought Rudd but on encryption, she sounds unintelligent or illiberal or both. There has been some attempt to spin that Rudd really does know what she is doing -- and that might be a sign of support from the men in grey suits. More importantly, however, she might be seen as the daughter of May, which is probably not a good thing right now.

    Hammond would be the obvious choice but no-one likes him.

    I'm not sure Fallon is even in the betting. I'd imagine he is the leader Corbyn would most like because his cuts neutralise defence as an election issue. He just seems over-promoted as a reward for the dead cat attacks in 2015.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,742
    Looking at how the Tory press are calling it, Murdoch and the Barclay Bros are behind Johnson.Boris is expendable for Murdoch,however,as he already has Gove as his man inside the government operation.Dacre and the ukip housepaper, the gool old Express, are so far behind May.I suggest if Dacre turns,she will be allowed to run through cornfields for the rest of her days.
    The other factor is how the big Tory donors react.I think the Tories very own Feldman,not Marti or any relation to him,may represent the Tories' wallet.Money talks,as they say.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,328

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    I thought Rudd but on encryption, she sounds unintelligent or illiberal or both. There has been some attempt to spin that Rudd really does know what she is doing -- and that might be a sign of support from the men in grey suits. More importantly, however, she might be seen as the daughter of May, which is probably not a good thing right now.

    Hammond would be the obvious choice but no-one likes him.

    I'm not sure Fallon is even in the betting. I'd imagine he is the leader Corbyn would most like because his cuts neutralise defence as an election issue. He just seems over-promoted as a reward for the dead cat attacks in 2015.
    DYOR and look at Amber Rudd's business career. and you'll soon conclude that that lady has no business being Home Secretary, let alone Prime Minister.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    Could Sir Patrick McLoughlin kindly do the decent thing and go first? Some of us are on him at decent odds to be the first to leave..
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,645
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    The former deputy prime minister has admitted it is “odd” for him to encourage voters to join a political party other than his own, but he believes that Brexit is a “time of national emergency” and requires greater pressure on the two main parties.

    An interesting point to include.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,539
    Leaving aside the idea of a change of PM is madness, i would put my money on Saqib Javid.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,742

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    Rudd's majority is 346 and is being targetted by Labour's army of members,as is my own constituency,which has shown commitment to gender equality by adopting an all-woman shortlist.Labour candidates will be digging into 74 seats by Christmas,ready for a GE next year or whenever it comes.

    https://labourlist.org/2017/09/revealed-the-key-marginals-where-labour-will-pick-candidates-before-christmas/

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Hunt is a pillock, but no worse than most Ministers of Health.

    I don't think anyone has gone from Health to PM, generally it is a career killer. Ken Clarke was one of the few survivors.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    Rudd's majority is 346 and is being targetted by Labour's army of members
    Good for them - perhaps targeting Rudd will protect other Tories who would otherwise be at risk, but the prize is too tempting.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,539

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Hunt is a pillock, but no worse than most Ministers of Health.

    I don't think anyone has gone from Health to PM, generally it is a career killer. Ken Clarke was one of the few survivors.

    Neville Chamberlain!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,274
    peterbuss said:



    I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.

    Sadly John there will never be enough time in the eyes of brexiteers for Hammond to be proved right as however much the economy continues its southward course they will never attribute it to brexit.

    Good odds.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 864
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    Rudd's majority is 346 and is being targetted by Labour's army of members
    Good for them - perhaps targeting Rudd will protect other Tories who would otherwise be at risk, but the prize is too tempting.
    Rudd fails the Private Eye test, i.e. 'What stories on X can we run in the next issue ... and the issue after that?' With Rudd, plenty.

    On present trends, Momentum could unseat IDS, Johnson and Rudd.

    If they wish to make their next leader Momentum-proof, south-west Surrey is one answer I suppose.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
    He is on record as saying Health is his last big job
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
    He is on record as saying Health is his last big job
    IIRC when Mrs Thatcher was Education Secretary she said there wouldn't be a woman PM in her political lifetime.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 15,753
    Macron tells french workers theyre lazy bastards

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/05/emmanuel-macron-sparks-furore-telling-protesting-workers-stop/

    have to agree, I used to own the factory !
  • England are so uninspiring
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    Rudd's majority is 346 and is being targetted by Labour's army of members
    Good for them - perhaps targeting Rudd will protect other Tories who would otherwise be at risk, but the prize is too tempting.
    Rudd fails the Private Eye test, i.e. 'What stories on X can we run in the next issue ... and the issue after that?' With Rudd, plenty.

    On present trends, Momentum could unseat IDS, Johnson and Rudd.

    If they wish to make their next leader Momentum-proof, south-west Surrey is one answer I suppose.
    Ooh, it's not Surry but if they want Momentum proof I know someone, they had the second largest Tory majority in 2015. TMay.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    Rudd's majority is 346 and is being targetted by Labour's army of members
    Good for them - perhaps targeting Rudd will protect other Tories who would otherwise be at risk, but the prize is too tempting.
    Rudd fails the Private Eye test, i.e. 'What stories on X can we run in the next issue ... and the issue after that?' With Rudd, plenty.

    On present trends, Momentum could unseat IDS, Johnson and Rudd.

    If they wish to make their next leader Momentum-proof, south-west Surrey is one answer I suppose.
    Or Spelthorne
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
    He is on record as saying Health is his last big job
    IIRC when Mrs Thatcher was Education Secretary she said there wouldn't be a woman PM in her political lifetime.
    If the hard leavers in the party are behind a coup they will never get my vote again. As a member I would vote for the best of the remain candidates. I do not accept a hard Brexit
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,445

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
    He is on record as saying Health is his last big job
    Really? he's only 50.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791

    Macron tells french workers theyre lazy bastards

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/05/emmanuel-macron-sparks-furore-telling-protesting-workers-stop/

    have to agree, I used to own the factory !

    It's a fascinating battle; the UK, Germany and Spain have all deregulated the labour markets in the last 30 years, and it's been hugely positive for their economies.

    France has resisted every effort at reform, and it's brought successive administrations to a halt. Will Macron succeed where Sarkozy and even Hollande failed?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,819

    I do not accept a hard Brexit

    Ummm...
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
    He is on record as saying Health is his last big job
    Really? he's only 50.
    Apparently
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,904
    Dear God, manoeuvring like a pack of hyenas around the kill. What an unedifying sight.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    rcs1000 said:

    France has resisted every effort at reform, and it's brought successive administrations to a halt. Will Macron succeed where Sarkozy and even Hollande failed?

    Yes.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 658

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    Rudd's majority is 346 and is being targetted by Labour's army of members,as is my own constituency,which has shown commitment to gender equality by adopting an all-woman shortlist.Labour candidates will be digging into 74 seats by Christmas,ready for a GE next year or whenever it comes.

    https://labourlist.org/2017/09/revealed-the-key-marginals-where-labour-will-pick-candidates-before-christmas/

    Hastings and Rye are not subject to an all woman shortlist. The Labour candidate is likely to be Peter Chowney again, same as last time. He is an exceptional candidate and has a good backstory. 16 years on the local council and career local government officer. I think he will do it next time, but the rural suburbs are an issue.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,093
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    I agree with Mike.

    And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.

    I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.

    They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.

    and of the Cameroons...

    The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.

    It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

    It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.

    Ed Vaizey is merely the start.

    So who are they supporting then?
    The Cameroons?

    Dave is backing Mrs May.

    The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
    Hunt
    I think it would be Rudd, but her majority is an issue.
    Rudd's majority is 346 and is being targetted by Labour's army of members
    Good for them - perhaps targeting Rudd will protect other Tories who would otherwise be at risk, but the prize is too tempting.
    Rudd fails the Private Eye test, i.e. 'What stories on X can we run in the next issue ... and the issue after that?' With Rudd, plenty.

    On present trends, Momentum could unseat IDS, Johnson and Rudd.

    If they wish to make their next leader Momentum-proof, south-west Surrey is one answer I suppose.
    Or Spelthorne
    You mean Kwasi
    .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    On Catalonia, kind of expected that the courts would say the Catalan parliament cannot meet to declare UDI, but will they physically still make an attempt to do so in that building, or some other location, shoudl it come down to that?
  • Scott_P said:

    I do not accept a hard Brexit

    Ummm...
    I really do not want a cliff edge Brexit - remember I was a remainer and want to leave Junckers and his mindset behind
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 146

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
    He is on record as saying Health is his last big job
    IIRC when Mrs Thatcher was Education Secretary she said there wouldn't be a woman PM in her political lifetime.
    If the hard leavers in the party are behind a coup they will never get my vote again. As a member I would vote for the best of the remain candidates. I do not accept a hard Brexit
    Aren't the majority of Tory members and activists hard leavers? Of course it depends who is put before them - if they get a choice at all.

    Ed Vaizey is a staunch remainer - and he is the one who has gone public?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,274
    edited October 5
    How do you solve a problem like Theresa?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,904
    Will the DUP deal survive a change of PM?

    Arlene might feel the opportunity is there to raise the stakes, that's assuming the deal survives whatever challenges are coming..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    rcs1000 said:

    Macron tells french workers theyre lazy bastards

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/05/emmanuel-macron-sparks-furore-telling-protesting-workers-stop/

    have to agree, I used to own the factory !

    It's a fascinating battle; the UK, Germany and Spain have all deregulated the labour markets in the last 30 years, and it's been hugely positive for their economies.

    France has resisted every effort at reform, and it's brought successive administrations to a halt. Will Macron succeed where Sarkozy and even Hollande failed?
    Macron's popularity seems to have fallen off Le Cliff, so I think he might as well go for broke with reforms in order to get a legacy in his first term.
  • brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Any of Hammond, Fallon, Rudd or Hunt would be a decent choice, even if none of them would be an outstanding choice. I actually think Fallon is not that unlikely, given that Hammond is unpopular (presumably because he talks so much sense), Rudd is a little on the light side and has the problem of the minuscule majority, and Hunt has the NHS millstone round his neck.

    Longest serving Secretary of State for Health for quite some time, since the 80s. Of course, as we've seen with May, that's not in itself a stellar recommendation in the end.
    He has done extremely well, and defused a lot of the problems he inherited from the turmoil over the Lansley reforms. He's sharp, and he's quite feisty, but he's also good at smoothing things over when necessary.

    However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
    Given he's lasted this long, through some tricky times and knowing it is not a position that is hard to be hated in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is still there in 2022. Who else wants the job, and if he is not getting a top top job, and has survived this long, not much reason to shift him.
    He is on record as saying Health is his last big job
    IIRC when Mrs Thatcher was Education Secretary she said there wouldn't be a woman PM in her political lifetime.
    If the hard leavers in the party are behind a coup they will never get my vote again. As a member I would vote for the best of the remain candidates. I do not accept a hard Brexit
    Aren't the majority of Tory members and activists hard leavers? Of course it depends who is put before them - if they get a choice at all.

    Ed Vaizey is a staunch remainer - and he is the one who has gone public?
    This member is not a hard Brexiteer
This discussion has been closed.