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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A European Strategy?

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A European Strategy?

It was Napoleon who famously described the English as “a nation of shopkeepers”, not meant as a compliment, one imagines.  Still, a bit rich coming from someone who sold Louisiana to the US to enrich his Treasury and help create a rival to England.  The English may have paid others to do their fighting for them, usually against the French, but they have yet to sell bits of their country off.  (The easily offended should look away now: dare I suggest that selling the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone to Ireland might solve quite a few problems for today’s rulers?)

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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    FIRST!
  • Excellent piece and I liked your subtle music reference.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    Excellent thread Cyclefree meanwhile the EU has a burgeoning crisis in Spain....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 2,913
    Top notch article
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    I enjoyed your piece. But it isn't time for new dreams and fresh thinking. It's time to face reality and make this thing work.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948

    Excellent piece and I liked your subtle music reference.

    Quite a bit classier than the usual ones! Though it could have been puntastic woven into a thread on the Labour leadership!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,313
    Point of detail - it was the Louisiana territory - all the way up the Mississippi and Missouri almost as far as Canada - not just modern Louisiana
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,819
    FF43 said:

    I enjoyed your piece. But it isn't time for new dreams and fresh thinking. It's time to face reality and make this thing work.

    The reality is it doesn't work, won't work, can't work.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,096
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    I enjoyed your piece. But it isn't time for new dreams and fresh thinking. It's time to face reality and make this thing work.

    The reality is it doesn't work, won't work, can't work.
    Glad to see you're finally accepting the we'd lost sovereignty. This is why a majority wanted to reclaim it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,038
    Nice piece Cycle. :)

    Meanwhile... I seem Theresa May plans to go on and on...

    This won't work out well... ;)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,514
    edited October 6
    FF43 said:

    I enjoyed your piece. But it isn't time for new dreams and fresh thinking. It's time to face reality and make this thing work.

    As a point of interest, just when is it time for new dreams and fresh thinking in your world view?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    edited October 6
    There seems to be some doubt as to whether Napoleon did call England a 'nation of shopkeepers' (une nation de boutiquiers), but, if he did, he may have meant it in a way which would warm the cockles of a Brexiteer's heart:

    I meant that you were a nation of merchants, and that all your great riches, and your grand resources arose from commerce, which is true. What else constitutes the riches of England? It is not extent of territory, or a numerous population. It is not mines of gold, silver, or diamonds. Moreover, no man of sense ought to be ashamed of being called a shopkeeper. But your prince and your ministers appear to wish to change altogether l'esprit of the English, and to render you another nation; to make you ashamed of your shops and your trade, which have made you what you are, and to sigh after nobility, titles and crosses; in fact to assimilate you with the French...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_of_shopkeepers
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    I enjoyed your piece. But it isn't time for new dreams and fresh thinking. It's time to face reality and make this thing work.

    The reality is it doesn't work, won't work, can't work.
    I may be a dreamer ....

    It will be a massively compromised Brexit where we pay more and get less and have less say over what happens to us, but if you can get over all that, it could work after a fashion. It's all about damage limitation. That's why I disagree with CycleFree.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,420
    How can we expect a Brexit deal? Spain in turmoil, France on strike, Germany no government.
    How can the EU move?
    Cabinet at War. Terrified of Corbyn.
    How can we move?
    WTO I reckon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    edited October 6
    Received a customs charge for something my other half ordered ex EU (We deliver to my work always).
    Plenty more where those came from post Brexit
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,539
    edited October 6
    Nice thread header.

    Is the doom and gloom on a deal being done (substance notwithstanding) really justified though? We don't know what is happening behind the scenes... was it not inevitable that things would look pretty dire at some point during negotiations, and could that not be necessary to push both sides to make progress?

    0% chance of a happy outcome seems very low...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    Charles said:

    Point of detail - it was the Louisiana territory - all the way up the Mississippi and Missouri almost as far as Canada - not just modern Louisiana

    Didn't it extend even further into what is now modern day Canada?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    rkrkrk said:

    Is the doom and gloom on a deal being done (substance notwithstanding) really justified though? We don't know what is happening behind the scenes... was it not inevitable that things would look pretty dire at some point during negotiations, and could that not be necessary to push both sides to make progress?

    I think the doom and gloom is likely to be justified, simply because as the series of Peter Foster tweets which @Scott_P has just pointed to suggests, our EU friends now don't know whether Theresa May has the political authority to conclude a deal and make it stick. It's just one more obstacle on what was already an extremely difficult path.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 8,237
    dixiedean said:


    WTO I reckon.

    So about that...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    edited October 6
    Does anyone have money on Trump and Boris being in charge at the same time (from before last November)?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,645
    Failed in Wales...



    The progressive alliance.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    rkrkrk said:

    Nice thread header.

    Is the doom and gloom on a deal really justified though? We don't know what is happening behind the scenes... was it not inevitable that things would look pretty dire at some point during negotiations, and could that not be necessary to push both sides to make progress?

    Article 50 shouldn't be difficult. Citizens' rights in my view are a good thing and I would have preferred to have relied on my government fully supporting these without being pushed to do so by the EU. Ireland is a problem that no-one has a solution to, so it needs to be finessed (surely they can set up a joint working party to "look at solutions" while the transition keeps things the same for the time being?). The rest is money. See it as a cost of leaving the EU.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    philiph said:

    FF43 said:

    I enjoyed your piece. But it isn't time for new dreams and fresh thinking. It's time to face reality and make this thing work.

    As a point of interest, just when is it time for new dreams and fresh thinking in your world view?

    It might have been at the time of the referendum. Unfortunately there was NO thinking at the time of the referendum
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438

    dixiedean said:


    WTO I reckon.

    So about that...
    I think that article overstates things. What would happen in practice is the the EU and UK would present their tariff-quota proposals. There would then be much haggling, but - crucially - as I understand it, in the meantime the proposals would apply. The final result, which might take some years to agree, would probably be based on the original EU-UK split with some tweeks.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 700
    The working assumption appears to be that hard Brexit=WTO.

    But what happens if the other WTO countries do not agree with your WTO tariffs?

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/92bb5636-a95b-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    dr_spyn said:

    Failed in Wales...



    The progressive alliance.

    Plaid falling apart seems to me. They had possibly the worst "Gain 1" seat result at the GE you can possibly get, were monstered by Labour there tbh.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    Time for new dreams and fresh thinking.

    Unless we reverse Brexit and join the Euro sooner rather than later, we'll be choosing a long term path of decline.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    dixiedean said:


    WTO I reckon.

    So about that...
    I think that article overstates things. What would happen in practice is the the EU and UK would present their tariff-quota proposals. There would then be much haggling, but - crucially - as I understand it, in the meantime the proposals would apply. The final result, which might take some years to agree, would probably be based on the original EU-UK split with some tweeks.
    The tariff rate quota issue is an interesting one because it impacts the EU, when rather little to do with Brexit does impact the EU - except for Ireland. The EU wants to reduce its TRQs to reflect the elimination of the UK. The default is that they stay the same - as happens when the EU enlarges, at least initially
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,065
    Isn't the simplest answer to the Irish Republic border is to just take the UK out of the CTA? It is a trojan horse to keep the UK in the EU free movement of people. The Irish Republic can observe the CTA if it wishes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500

    Time for new dreams and fresh thinking.

    Unless we reverse Brexit and join the Euro sooner rather than later, we'll be choosing a long term path of decline.

    Repeatedly saying it won't make it happen :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500
    PAW said:

    Isn't the simplest answer to the Irish Republic border is to just take the UK out of the CTA? It is a trojan horse to keep the UK in the EU free movement of people. The Irish Republic can observe the CTA if it wishes.

    Isn't the main concern about customs checks?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    edited October 6
  • PAW said:

    Isn't the simplest answer to the Irish Republic border is to just take the UK out of the CTA? It is a trojan horse to keep the UK in the EU free movement of people. The Irish Republic can observe the CTA if it wishes.

    Every decision has consequences. Not everything is a plot around GB&NIs relationship with the EU.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,484
    A near perfect post.

    Cyclefree for PM.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    edited October 6
    YouGov:

    Labour: 42% (-1)
    Conservative: 40% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 7% (nc)
    UKIP: 4% (nc)
    Green: 2% (nc)

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/916274242936852480
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458

    Time for new dreams and fresh thinking.

    Unless we reverse Brexit and join the Euro sooner rather than later, we'll be choosing a long term path of decline.

    Coming from you that's about as fresh as a very un-fresh thing.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,539

    rkrkrk said:

    Is the doom and gloom on a deal being done (substance notwithstanding) really justified though? We don't know what is happening behind the scenes... was it not inevitable that things would look pretty dire at some point during negotiations, and could that not be necessary to push both sides to make progress?

    I think the doom and gloom is likely to be justified, simply because as the series of Peter Foster tweets which @Scott_P has just pointed to suggests, our EU friends now don't know whether Theresa May has the political authority to conclude a deal and make it stick. It's just one more obstacle on what was already an extremely difficult path.
    She's clearly a bit low on political authority at the moment... but I expect that situation to resolve itself. Either she will fall, or it will get to a point where she proves she has the backing of the party.

    I would also expect at least some Labour MPs to support the government on a deal which avoided a calamity cliff-edge, especially if a few key concessions are made. The pressure on MPs at that point from business etc. would also presumably be significant.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,014
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov:

    Labour: 42% (-1)
    Conservative: 40% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 7% (nc)
    UKIP: 4% (nc)
    Green: 2% (nc)

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/916274242936852480

    I know it's out of fashion to say it... but a 2pt lead isn't great for Labour is it?

    Plus Greens continue to be subdued.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,096
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov:

    Labour: 42% (-1)
    Conservative: 40% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 7% (nc)
    UKIP: 4% (nc)
    Green: 2% (nc)

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/916274242936852480

    Has any leader ever been deposed when the party was on 40% of the vote?

    Grant Shapps; what a plonker!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 2,539
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nice thread header.

    Is the doom and gloom on a deal really justified though? We don't know what is happening behind the scenes... was it not inevitable that things would look pretty dire at some point during negotiations, and could that not be necessary to push both sides to make progress?

    Article 50 shouldn't be difficult. Citizens' rights in my view are a good thing and I would have preferred to have relied on my government fully supporting these without being pushed to do so by the EU. Ireland is a problem that no-one has a solution to, so it needs to be finessed (surely they can set up a joint working party to "look at solutions" while the transition keeps things the same for the time being?). The rest is money. See it as a cost of leaving the EU.
    I agree Ireland no one has a solution... but whatever occurs automatically under Brexit is surely sub-optimal and some kind of accommodation would be preferable to both sides...

    Money is just haggling and the prospect of losing rather more money (and the possibility of agreeing a fee for 1 year subject to renegotiation next year atc.) should make that resolvable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    edited October 6
    FF43 said:

    Ireland is a problem that no-one has a solution to, so it needs to be finessed (surely they can set up a joint working party to "look at solutions" while the transition keeps things the same for the time being?).

    The solution is for the UK to translate this part of May's Florence speech into its clear implication for Northern Ireland's permanent position in the EU customs union, regardless of what GB does. There is no incentive for Ireland or the EU to offer any fudge or help the UK kick the can.

    "As part of this, we and the EU have committed to protecting the Belfast Agreement and the Common Travel Area and, looking ahead, we have both stated explicitly that we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border.

    "We owe it to the people of Northern Ireland – and indeed to everyone on the island of Ireland - to see through these commitments."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 31,819
    Mortimer said:

    Has any leader ever been deposed when the party was on 40% of the vote?

    Grant Shapps; what a plonker!

    What were the polls when Gordo took over?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    Has any leader ever been deposed when the party was on 40% of the vote?

    Grant Shapps; what a plonker!

    What were the polls when Gordo took over?
    Labour were at 34% when Blair announced his resignation:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,188
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov:

    Labour: 42% (-1)
    Conservative: 40% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 7% (nc)
    UKIP: 4% (nc)
    Green: 2% (nc)

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/916274242936852480

    Has any leader ever been deposed when the party was on 40% of the vote?

    Grant Shapps; what a plonker!
    It's funny how the Tories were ecstatic to get 36.9% in 2015 but are in a state of panic over 40% at present. The main reason of course is the collapse of the LDs.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,052
    edited October 6
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    Has any leader ever been deposed when the party was on 40% of the vote?

    Grant Shapps; what a plonker!

    What were the polls when Gordo took over?
    Mostly in the thirties for Labour. Highest was Ipsos MORI and ICM on 39%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    After Jan 22 2008, the Tories led in every single poll, except for four Cleggasm polls, up to GE2010
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,328
    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,365
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Miss Cyclefree, nice post, but I fear appealing to the EU for a sense of flexibility is optimistic at best.

    F1: for those who missed it, my pre-qualifying ramble on Japan is up here, with a pair of tips:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/japan-pre-qualifying-2017.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited October 6

    FF43 said:

    Ireland is a problem that no-one has a solution to, so it needs to be finessed (surely they can set up a joint working party to "look at solutions" while the transition keeps things the same for the time being?).

    The solution is for the UK to translate this part of May's Florence speech into its clear implication for Northern Ireland's permanent position in the EU customs union, regardless of what GB does. There is no incentive for Ireland or the EU to offer any fudge or help the UK kick the can.

    "As part of this, we and the EU have committed to protecting the Belfast Agreement and the Common Travel Area and, looking ahead, we have both stated explicitly that we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border.

    "We owe it to the people of Northern Ireland – and indeed to everyone on the island of Ireland - to see through these commitments."
    If the UK stays in the EU Customs Union it takes the sting out of that tail. There are good reasons for the UK to do so, but I don't imagine the mainland will allow the NI tail to wag the UK dog. The government will decide for the mainland. Northern Ireland remaining in the CU, but the UK not doing so, is an option. Northern Ireland is a strange enough setup that a different arrangement from the mainland could be envisaged. Northern Ireland could be asked to vote whether it wants to stay in the EU CU. I guess, based on the EURef results in Northern Ireland that a EU customs union proposal might carry. The problem is that Unionists would be opposed and they have an effective veto.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 417

    Charles said:

    Point of detail - it was the Louisiana territory - all the way up the Mississippi and Missouri almost as far as Canada - not just modern Louisiana

    Didn't it extend even further into what is now modern day Canada?
    Just a little bit. When the border from the Great Lakes to the Rockies was changed from the watershed of the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans to the 49th parallel in 1818 the US gained more than "Canada" (actually Rupert's Land, which was owned by the Hudson's Bay Company) did. The American gained the southern portion of the Red River Colony which had been established as a settlement colony in 1807.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    The reality of Brexit is that British Eurosceptics have screwed themselves and the EU side shows every willingness to accommodate this. When all's said and done, they will be irrelevant in UK politics for a long time to come.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,002
    Just another normal day in europe...Hardly any mention in the media, even the daily rant it is a minor story...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4955230/Man-tried-carry-explosive-plane-Sweden.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992
    Curious piece. Not sure what do make it. Does it just say wouldn't it be nice if the UK gov and EU could find a constructive relationship post-Brexit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,002
    AndyJS said:

    YouGov:

    Labour: 42% (-1)
    Conservative: 40% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 7% (nc)
    UKIP: 4% (nc)
    Green: 2% (nc)

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/916274242936852480

    If you only listened to the media narrative you would think supreme leader in waiting corbyn was 20% ahead in the polls.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    Actually, I would say it is the British side that has a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit. The EU issue is different. They are a membership organisation that acts in the interests of its members. It's not its job to accommodate the interests of non-members. It might, and I would argue, should, decide that it is in the interests of its members to develop good relations with like-minded non member countries so that the enlarged group has more influence.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992
    edited October 6
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    I think the end of the article should have been more George Harrison than John Lennon.More apt would be My sweet Lord or While my Guitar (country ) gently weeps.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458
    FF43 said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    Actually, I would say it is the British side that has a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit. The EU issue is different. They are a membership organisation that acts in the interests of its members. It's not its job to accommodate the interests of non-members. It might, and I would argue, should, decide that it is in the interests of its members to develop good relations with like-minded non member countries so that the enlarged group has more influence.

    Try telling half the eurozone that! Strewth.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,038

    AndyJS said:

    YouGov:

    Labour: 42% (-1)
    Conservative: 40% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 7% (nc)
    UKIP: 4% (nc)
    Green: 2% (nc)

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/916274242936852480

    If you only listened to the media narrative you would think supreme leader in waiting corbyn was 20% ahead in the polls.
    I suppose the question not asked is which Tories? Leavers or Remainers.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 417
    PAW said:

    Isn't the simplest answer to the Irish Republic border is to just take the UK out of the CTA? It is a trojan horse to keep the UK in the EU free movement of people.

    What on Earth makes you say that? The rights of UK and Irish citizens to settle in each others' countries is enshrined in primary legislation in both countries that pre-dates the EU. In any case, no-one is talking about imposing visa requirements on EU citizens post-Brexit: they'll be just as free to enter the UK and try to stay and work illegally as Australians, Brazilians and Motswana, to think of just a few examples of peoples that don't need a visa to the UK. In fact the Home Office has proposed to maintain a privileged regime for EU citizens post-Brexit whereby they won't need to have entry stamps in their passports (translation: we can't afford to hire the extra immigration officers that we'd need to change that).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    FF43 said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    Actually, I would say it is the British side that has a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit. The EU issue is different. They are a membership organisation that acts in the interests of its members. It's not its job to accommodate the interests of non-members. It might, and I would argue, should, decide that it is in the interests of its members to develop good relations with like-minded non member countries so that the enlarged group has more influence.

    To be more explicit, the EU doesn't need to understand and accommodate Brexit. At her Florence speech, Mrs May had a very telling slogan behind her (that didn't fall off): Shared challenges EU countries are as one that they don't share those challenges. Their Brexit strategy is all about NOT sharing those challenges.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited October 6
    Essexit said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    Actually, I would say it is the British side that has a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit. The EU issue is different. They are a membership organisation that acts in the interests of its members. It's not its job to accommodate the interests of non-members. It might, and I would argue, should, decide that it is in the interests of its members to develop good relations with like-minded non member countries so that the enlarged group has more influence.

    Try telling half the eurozone that! Strewth.
    If those countries feel the EU is not working for their interests, they will leave. It's a non-negligible risk.

    And I should add, it ought to focus EU minds on working for their members than worrying about the UK
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,812
    Essexit said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    Actually, I would say it is the British side that has a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit. The EU issue is different. They are a membership organisation that acts in the interests of its members. It's not its job to accommodate the interests of non-members. It might, and I would argue, should, decide that it is in the interests of its members to develop good relations with like-minded non member countries so that the enlarged group has more influence.

    Try telling half the eurozone that! Strewth.
    Did any Eurozone country ever have a poll showing a majority of the population wanted to give up the euro?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    edited October 6
    FF43 said:

    To be more explicit, the EU doesn't need to understand and accommodate Brexit. At her Florence speech, Mrs May had a very telling slogan behind her (that didn't fall off): Shared challenges EU countries are as one that they don't share those challenges. Their Brexit strategy is all about NOT sharing those challenges.

    Exactly. Too many of the soft Leavers with their notions of British exceptionalism imagine that the EU should be positively delighted to have such a special country on their doorstep post-Brexit, and should go out of its way to accommodate its wishes in a way that just wasn't possible as a member. This groups needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 24,002
    No problem with anti-Semitism in the labour party, they had in inquiry and everything,

    https://order-order.com/2017/10/06/corbyn-gave-tour-parliament-anti-semitic-conspiracy-theorist/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,673
    edited October 6
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    Actually, I would say it is the British side that has a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit. The EU issue is different. They are a membership organisation that acts in the interests of its members. It's not its job to accommodate the interests of non-members. It might, and I would argue, should, decide that it is in the interests of its members to develop good relations with like-minded non member countries so that the enlarged group has more influence.

    To be more explicit, the EU doesn't need to understand and accommodate Brexit. At her Florence speech, Mrs May had a very telling slogan behind her (that didn't fall off): Shared challenges EU countries are as one that they don't share those challenges. Their Brexit strategy is all about NOT sharing those challenges.
    And people on here bleat that "they will hurt themselves if they do...or don't do...this that or the other"

    So what? Why should we care and what difference can we make if they do indeed hurt themselves.

    It is the cake and eat it negotiating strategy - we want this and if you don't give it to us you will be the ones that suffer and we presume that you don't want that.

    As the man said - que?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,458
    JonathanD said:

    Essexit said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    Actually, I would say it is the British side that has a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit. The EU issue is different. They are a membership organisation that acts in the interests of its members. It's not its job to accommodate the interests of non-members. It might, and I would argue, should, decide that it is in the interests of its members to develop good relations with like-minded non member countries so that the enlarged group has more influence.

    Try telling half the eurozone that! Strewth.
    Did any Eurozone country ever have a poll showing a majority of the population wanted to give up the euro?

    A more interesting question would be 'Do you regret your country joining the euro in the first place?'
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,427
    Jonathan said:

    Curious piece. Not sure what do make it. Does it just say wouldn't it be nice if the UK gov and EU could find a constructive relationship post-Brexit?

    Well, yes. But also that it ought to be possible to create an EU structure which accommodated states like Britain which did not want to be part of the central core.

    Brexit is a rupture to what everyone assumed would be an organisation getting larger as new members joined with no-one ever leaving. Why not take a deep breath, pause and look again?

    It is a great pity IMO that we have not been able to find a way of developing a pan-European structure able to accommodate Britain and Continental Europe and that we are not using this opportunity to do so.

    All these unedifying arguments are like a group of friends at the end of a bug dinner arguing about who had an extra vodka Martini, who ate more bread rolls etc ending up in acrimony and broken friendships.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 793

    FF43 said:

    To be more explicit, the EU doesn't need to understand and accommodate Brexit. At her Florence speech, Mrs May had a very telling slogan behind her (that didn't fall off): Shared challenges EU countries are as one that they don't share those challenges. Their Brexit strategy is all about NOT sharing those challenges.

    Exactly. Too many of the soft Leavers with their notions of British exceptionalism imagine that the EU should be positively delighted to have such a special country on their doorstep post-Brexit, and should go out of its way to accommodate its wishes in a way that just wasn't possible as a member. This groups needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
    The Uk's relationship with the EU after it has left will be similar to that of Mexico or Canada to the USA I guess. Very much in the orbit of, and less important than, the larger country but not completely irrelevant.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,427
    Yorkcity said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    I think the end of the article should have been more George Harrison than John Lennon.More apt would be My sweet Lord or While my Guitar (country ) gently weeps.
    I don’t really like “Imagine”. Much prefer “Here Comes the Sun”.

    But that would have been an insanely optimistic note on which to end...... :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,673
    edited October 6
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious piece. Not sure what do make it. Does it just say wouldn't it be nice if the UK gov and EU could find a constructive relationship post-Brexit?

    Well, yes. But also that it ought to be possible to create an EU structure which accommodated states like Britain which did not want to be part of the central core.
    You mean accommodate a state which didn't want to participate in ever closer union, that didn't want to be discriminated against because of its refusal to join the currency union, that wanted protections for its banking sector?

    That kind of accommodation?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,427

    There seems to be some doubt as to whether Napoleon did call England a 'nation of shopkeepers' (une nation de boutiquiers), but, if he did, he may have meant it in a way which would warm the cockles of a Brexiteer's heart:

    I meant that you were a nation of merchants, and that all your great riches, and your grand resources arose from commerce, which is true. What else constitutes the riches of England? It is not extent of territory, or a numerous population. It is not mines of gold, silver, or diamonds. Moreover, no man of sense ought to be ashamed of being called a shopkeeper. But your prince and your ministers appear to wish to change altogether l'esprit of the English, and to render you another nation; to make you ashamed of your shops and your trade, which have made you what you are, and to sigh after nobility, titles and crosses; in fact to assimilate you with the French...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_of_shopkeepers

    Ah, don’t spoil things, Richard!

    How else would I get a Napoleonic and Churchillian reference into the first paragraph?! :)
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,812
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious piece. Not sure what do make it. Does it just say wouldn't it be nice if the UK gov and EU could find a constructive relationship post-Brexit?


    It is a great pity IMO that we have not been able to find a way of developing a pan-European structure able to accommodate Britain and Continental Europe and that we are not using this opportunity to do so.

    That would be nice but the EU have made two judgements about Brexit:

    i) Its a great opportunity to steal some of the industry that had based itself in the UK for exporting to the EU.

    ii) As long as the ruling party is hopelessly divided between pragmatists and anti-EU fanatics who want it destroyed, there is no real possibility of coming to some sort of constructive partnership.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 19,791
    PAW said:

    Isn't the simplest answer to the Irish Republic border is to just take the UK out of the CTA? It is a trojan horse to keep the UK in the EU free movement of people. The Irish Republic can observe the CTA if it wishes.

    What about the other signatories of the CTA: the Channel Islands, etc?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    edited October 6

    FF43 said:

    To be more explicit, the EU doesn't need to understand and accommodate Brexit. At her Florence speech, Mrs May had a very telling slogan behind her (that didn't fall off): Shared challenges EU countries are as one that they don't share those challenges. Their Brexit strategy is all about NOT sharing those challenges.

    Exactly. Too many of the soft Leavers with their notions of British exceptionalism imagine that the EU should be positively delighted to have such a special country on their doorstep post-Brexit, and should go out of its way to accommodate its wishes in a way that just wasn't possible as a member. This groups needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
    The Uk's relationship with the EU after it has left will be similar to that of Mexico or Canada to the USA I guess. Very much in the orbit of, and less important than, the larger country but not completely irrelevant.
    Imagine how we'd feel post-Brexit if the EU pulled the same trick against us as the US did against Canada's Bombardier? The US and Canada are in the kind of 'trade only' club that Eurosceptics imagine is sufficient, but it clearly falls far short of what we have come to take for granted in Europe.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103
    Cyclefree said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Excellent piece, apart from the brief lapse into Lennonism at the end.

    Yes, we need serious and imaginative leaders, both here and in the EU. Sadly, on the European side, there seems a complete and perhaps willful inability to understand and accommodate the reality of Brexit, and on the British side, the very process of Brexit has left every meaningful actor in the play too weak to deliver on the flexibility an vision required (though that would only be possible if the EU engaged too).

    I struggle to see how this doesn't end very badly and perhaps with a great deal of ill will.

    I think the end of the article should have been more George Harrison than John Lennon.More apt would be My sweet Lord or While my Guitar (country ) gently weeps.
    I don’t really like “Imagine”. Much prefer “Here Comes the Sun”.

    But that would have been an insanely optimistic note on which to end...... :)
    Lol maybe great song though , as was Something in the way she moves.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,377
    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,438
    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    Looks like it. It's Gordon Brown all over again.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,514

    FF43 said:

    To be more explicit, the EU doesn't need to understand and accommodate Brexit. At her Florence speech, Mrs May had a very telling slogan behind her (that didn't fall off): Shared challenges EU countries are as one that they don't share those challenges. Their Brexit strategy is all about NOT sharing those challenges.

    Exactly. Too many of the soft Leavers with their notions of British exceptionalism imagine that the EU should be positively delighted to have such a special country on their doorstep post-Brexit, and should go out of its way to accommodate its wishes in a way that just wasn't possible as a member. This groups needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
    The Uk's relationship with the EU after it has left will be similar to that of Mexico or Canada to the USA I guess. Very much in the orbit of, and less important than, the larger country but not completely irrelevant.
    Imagine how we'd feel post-Brexit if the EU pulled the same trick against us as the US did against Canada's Bombardier? The US and Canada are in the kind of 'trade only' club that Eurosceptics imagine is sufficient, but it clearly falls far short of what we have come to take for granted in Europe.
    I expect someone will have a beef about that comment and assumption of EU fair play.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,041
    edited October 6
    Actually the phrase "nation of shopkeepers" arises from Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations in 1776. The evidence that Napoleon ever used the phrase is flimsy; if he did it is most likely a reference back to Adam Smith and therefore mostly complimentary rather than intended as an insult < /anorak mode off>
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,427
    edited October 6
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious piece. Not sure what do make it. Does it just say wouldn't it be nice if the UK gov and EU could find a constructive relationship post-Brexit?

    Well, yes. But also that it ought to be possible to create an EU structure which accommodated states like Britain which did not want to be part of the central core.
    You mean accommodate a state which didn't want to participate in ever closer union, that didn't want to be discriminated against because of its refusal to join the currency union, that wanted protections for its banking sector?

    That kind of accommodation?
    I could see that coming a mile off, Mr T. :)

    No - an accommodation which worked for other countries as well e.g Eastern European countries and smaller countries and countries with different legal systems, an accommodation which took into account the very different experiences of and attitudes to immigration and multi-culturalism arounf Europe, for a start.

    After well over 60 years we need to look at the whole thing again and should be learning from the mistakes and events along the way. And we should be using this opportunity to think again, even if there was - as you think - a perfectly good missed opportunity we could have taken last year.

    My personal view FWIW is that the “deal” was so-so, nowhere near as good as some claimed it to be, vulnerable to legall challenge and chipping away but could have been lived with. But it was fundamentally flawed in that it was - and appeared to be - far too technocratic and focused on matters of little concern to ordinary voters (who did not give a toss about protecting the banking sector) and did not really address their concerns at all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,041
    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    If Corbyn's experience is a pointer, a botched coup is just what Mrs May needs right now....
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,514
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    If Corbyn's experience is a pointer, a botched coup is just what Mrs May needs right now....
    But getting 172(?) MPs to botch it up is a hard act to follow
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 417
    rcs1000 said:

    PAW said:

    Isn't the simplest answer to the Irish Republic border is to just take the UK out of the CTA? It is a trojan horse to keep the UK in the EU free movement of people. The Irish Republic can observe the CTA if it wishes.

    What about the other signatories of the CTA: the Channel Islands, etc?
    IIRC the only formal agreements regarding the CTA have been between the UK and Ireland.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 4,760
    edited October 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    Which is presumably why Mark Pritchard is so bitter about it, "stupid, stupid, stupid", ending his piece in politicshome:

    The Prime Minister has the support of the majority of Conservative MPs and will continue to lead the Conservative Parliamentary Party and the country.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 793
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    Which is presumably why Mark Pritchard is so bitter about it, ending his piece in politicshome:

    The Prime Minister has the support of the majority of Conservative MPs and will continue to lead the Conservative Parliamentary Party and the country.
    Well she will continue in office. Whether she will do any leading is very much open to doubt.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    Looks like it. It's Gordon Brown all over again.
    It does , but he did bring Peter Mandelson back into government, which in my opinion helped .Hard to see May doing similar, or been given the opportunity.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    Dispute Resolution after Brexit cautions against giving in to current EU demands to give the European Court of Justice (ECJ) the final say over the withdrawal agreement, as it will not be neutral in disputes between the UK and the EU.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/dispute-resolution-after-brexit
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 10,673
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious piece. Not sure what do make it. Does it just say wouldn't it be nice if the UK gov and EU could find a constructive relationship post-Brexit?

    Well, yes. But also that it ought to be possible to create an EU structure which accommodated states like Britain which did not want to be part of the central core.
    You mean accommodate a state which didn't want to participate in ever closer union, that didn't want to be discriminated against because of its refusal to join the currency union, that wanted protections for its banking sector?

    That kind of accommodation?
    I could see that coming a mile off, Mr T. :)

    No - an accommodation which worked for other countries as well e.g Eastern European countries and smaller countries and countries with different legal systems, an accommodation which took into account the very different experiences of and attitudes to immigration and multi-culturalism arounf Europe, for a start.

    After well over 60 years we need to look at the whole thing again and should be learning from the mistakes and events along the way. And we should be using this opportunity to think again, even if there was - as you think - a perfectly good missed opportunity we could have taken last year.

    My personal view FWIW is that the “deal” was so-so, nowhere near as good as some claimed it to be, vulnerable to legall challenge and chipping away but could have been lived with. But it was fundamentally flawed in that it was - and appeared to be - far too technocratic and focused on matters of little concern to ordinary voters (who did not give a toss about protecting the banking sector) and did not really address their concerns at all.
    :smile:

    Yes I think that is the nub, which of course ties in with your earlier comment about some home truths for the voters. The thing of course which D'sD failed all hands down on was immigration. That was probably as much a symbol of a perceived lack of sovereignty as an issue in itself, and one that the deal didn't address, or rather, that fell far short of what many ordinary voters probably wanted.

    As to the whole redrawing of the EU? I'm not one for epochal predictions, but I feel that we are probably more at the beginning of the EU epoch than the end of it. Those Eastern European countries are only going to get richer and as they do, then they will find both a louder voice, and perhaps a more natural place within the EU, whatever it is by then. Of course they might think that they have outgrown it also, but my guess is that the EU in 20 years time will be more powerful, one way or another, than it is today or in April 2019.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 29,500

    Dispute Resolution after Brexit cautions against giving in to current EU demands to give the European Court of Justice (ECJ) the final say over the withdrawal agreement, as it will not be neutral in disputes between the UK and the EU.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/dispute-resolution-after-brexit

    Well, duh!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 24,948
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    If Corbyn's experience is a pointer, a botched coup is just what Mrs May needs right now....
    It looks like she's getting it.......
  • You do have to wonder how some broadcasters get their facts so wrong.

    Sky presenter just said Theresa May facing increased calls for her to stand down as Grant Shapps has upto 50 MP's supporting him

    At the same time as saying this the strapline is saying 30 and she clearly has no idea of the significance in the different numbers.

    We are quick to attack politicians but the broadcast media are at times just as bad, if not worse
  • David Cameron and Theresa May have spoken and he fully endorses her premiership
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 484
    Yorkcity said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Grant Shapps seems to have botched the coup before it has really begun. I reckon May is here to stay.

    Looks like it. It's Gordon Brown all over again.
    It does , but he did bring Peter Mandelson back into government, which in my opinion helped .Hard to see May doing similar, or been given the opportunity.
    You are not suggesting anyone should bring Mandelson back are you? You cannot be serious! (Shouted a la John McEnroe)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,445

    You do have to wonder how some broadcasters get their facts so wrong.

    Sky presenter just said Theresa May facing increased calls for her to stand down as Grant Shapps has upto 50 MP's supporting him

    At the same time as saying this the strapline is saying 30 and she clearly has no idea of the significance in the different numbers.

    We are quick to attack politicians but the broadcast media are at times just as bad, if not worse

    Shappsites plus Johnsonites could total 50 but I don't see any basis on which they would join forces.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 3,049
    And Cameron had such confidence and trust and generosity towards Schapps for his pivotal role in the 2015 election that he released him from the cabinet to the upward green pastures as Minister of State at the Department for International Development.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    David Cameron and Theresa May have spoken and he fully endorses her premiership

    Yes you can beat the chairpersons full endorsement for the manager ,after a few ify results .
This discussion has been closed.