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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Safe for now – but for how long?

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Safe for now – but for how long?

Napoleon famously demanded that his generals be lucky. It’s a wonderful attribute to have but the emperor really should have been more specific. What’s important is being lucky at the right time. On that score, Theresa May has fallen short and it will cost her her premiership.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,661
    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 874
    Ooh! I could crush a grape.
  • sunnysunny Posts: 1
    Surely she will go through the difficult period.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 952
    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 633
    A leader can be admired, respected, liked and even feared, but never pitied. May can fight a rear guard action against her party, but in the eyes of the rest of the real world, she, her associates, her cabinet and her supporters are diminished
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    edited October 7

    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
    My mood is similar.

    Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular. He looks comfortable in a suit, indeed quite dapper, and his style has softened to a more subtle one. This works well as he comes across as a genial old prophet. He has retained his stubbiness but is unfailingly polite when attacked, and listens before replying. British people like that. We like his amiable eccentricities and enthusiasms.

    The cult and football chant do seem to slightly embarrass Corbyn, but he manages it with reasonable modesty. Once again his personal self effacement contrasts well with May's claim of "Strong and Stable", which sounds very un-British in its arrogance and autocracy.

    It is said that important people talk of ideas, and unimportant people of people. This is where the Tories are holed below the waterline. They concentrate on attacking the people on the Labour front bench (when not briefing against each other) while Labour has the philosophical field of ideas for themselves.

    The Tories are a void of ideas, and what few they have are an incoherent mix of measures pinched from other parties. May cannot repair this, and Tories need to resolve their battle of ideas before they can function again. The reason for a leadership contest being necessary is not just to clear out the zombie of May, but to resolve their intellectual deficit. They need a better plan than being the party of anti-Corbyn.

    A plan for Brexit and for Britain is going to be a bodged job under May, and everyone can see that, not least the EU, but also the British electorate.

    " Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,160
    Just heard a short clip from Ruth Davidson. After saying 'you don't change a leader for having a cough' she was asked who were these people coming out of the woodwork?

    "Just the usual combination of ambition and lack of self assessment"

    A smart lady and a masterful put-down. Definitely one to watch.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    edited October 7
    Roger said:

    Just heard a short clip from Ruth Davidson. After saying 'you don't change a leader for having a cough' she was asked who were these people coming out of the woodwork?

    "Just the usual combination of ambition and lack of self assessment"

    A smart lady and a masterful put-down. Definitely one to watch.

    Ruth Davidson is a rarity in politics in having genuine wit. She has the advantage of being about the only Tory who came out of the campaign smelling of roses rather than dung. She was also one of the most effective advocates for Remain.

    The 2017 election will need further analysis, but for me summed up by two clips. Mrs May canvassing in Scotland:



    And Jeremy Corbyn at Tranmere. This day changed the campaign, with the youthful enthusiasm going viral:

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,581
    Sounds like a slow motion snuff movie that could end suddenly or go and on in all its goriness.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 16,549

    Sounds like a slow motion snuff movie that could end suddenly or go and on in all its goriness.

    Your film tastes are.....interesting.

    Doesn't mean that you are wrong of course. She was fatally damaged by her inability to campaign in the GE. This conference showed that she hasn't really learned from those failures.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 15,753
    edited October 7
    36% of Germans think Merkel should not serve a full term

    strong and stable government


    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article169399036/Jeder-dritte-Bundesbuerger-fuer-vorzeitigen-Abgang-Merkels.html
  • nielhnielh Posts: 658

    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
    My mood is similar.

    Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular.
    snip

    It is said that important people talk of ideas, and unimportant people of people. This is where the Tories are holed below the waterline. They concentrate on attacking the people on the Labour front bench (when not briefing against each other) while Labour has the philosophical field of ideas for themselves.
    snip
    " Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
    He cannot deliver on the stuff he is promising, and if he gets in to power, people will be angry and disappointed. The objective is to turn people against the capitalist system, and having a labour government is a part of that process.

    My own assessment is that he would do enormous damage to the British state, which if he gains control of (ie through a majority government stuffed with his fellow travellers), would simply be reorientated to promote the aims of international socialism. The damage would be lasting and terrible.

    His actual ideas are more eccentric populism than genuine socialism. It is Robin Hood. Take from the rich and give to the poor. These economics have been discredited over and over again. The tax reciepts would just diminish. The cost of borrowing would spiral out of control. How is it ever going to be different this time around?

    People have been duped. They are desperate and have succumbed to delusions in the face of an existential crisis. But the problem is that the capitalist system has been mismanaged, not that it is flawed in its own right. The ideology of neoliberalism needs to be reversed. Stronger governments. More international co-operation. Better regulation of business. Fairer taxes.

    That is the answer, not a unilateral declaration of international socialism. People are not willing to give up their cheap imported food, iphones and foreign holidays. They expect efficient public services and demand more and more all the time.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,484
    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    This is a keeper!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,484
    I wonder if things like WhatsApp make it much harder for Tories to plot in secret these days.

    It allows all other Tory MPs to witch-hunt very quickly, the content is rather leakable, and stops anything getting real momentum.
  • He's talking mince.

    Pride, One, Angel of Harlem, When Love Comes To Town, and anything from The Joshua Tree are bona fide masterpieces.

    Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me another seminal song

    And about 90% of people in relationships in the last 30 years have sung With Or Without You at their other halves.
  • I wonder if things like WhatsApp make it much harder for Tories to plot in secret these days.

    It allows all other Tory MPs to witch-hunt very quickly, the content is rather leakable, and stops anything getting real momentum.

    They should be using snapchat.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 15,753
    edited October 7

    He's talking mince.

    Pride, One, Angel of Harlem, When Love Comes To Town, and anything from The Joshua Tree are bona fide masterpieces.

    Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me another seminal song

    And about 90% of people in relationships in the last 30 years have sung With Or Without You at their other halves.
    what do you expect ? He's from Manchester
  • On topic, she's one 'incident' away from being toppled.

    She's got a PMQs on Wednesday, it could be brutal, she could me monstered by Jeremy Corbyn, which is like being savaged by a dead gnat.
  • He's talking mince.

    Pride, One, Angel of Harlem, When Love Comes To Town, and anything from The Joshua Tree are bona fide masterpieces.

    Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me another seminal song

    And about 90% of people in relationships in the last 30 years have sung With Or Without You at their other halves.
    what do youn expect ? He's from Manchester
    True.

    Assuming no events dear boy, the Sunday morning thread is just for you.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 15,753

    He's talking mince.

    Pride, One, Angel of Harlem, When Love Comes To Town, and anything from The Joshua Tree are bona fide masterpieces.

    Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me another seminal song

    And about 90% of people in relationships in the last 30 years have sung With Or Without You at their other halves.
    what do youn expect ? He's from Manchester
    True.

    Assuming no events dear boy, the Sunday morning thread is just for you.
    there will be events, there always are
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,038

    He's talking mince.

    Pride, One, Angel of Harlem, When Love Comes To Town, and anything from The Joshua Tree are bona fide masterpieces.

    Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me another seminal song

    And about 90% of people in relationships in the last 30 years have sung With Or Without You at their other halves.
    More likely “My Old Dutch” for my generation!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    He's talking mince.

    Pride, One, Angel of Harlem, When Love Comes To Town, and anything from The Joshua Tree are bona fide masterpieces.

    Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me another seminal song

    And about 90% of people in relationships in the last 30 years have sung With Or Without You at their other halves.
    Nah, he is right. Kasabian are the only decent band that he mentions.

    His argument falls flat on his own lack of achievement over the last two decades.
  • The longer we go on without an effective government or PM the worse it gets for the country. Never mind the damage this does to the supposed Conservative and Unionist Party who imperil both the union and conserving the viability of the state with this fiasco.

    As I've said a few days ago we do need not only steady leadership right now but non-factional independent of thought leadership. And the Tories fundamental problem is that shit as May is the others jostling for position are just as shit. A Brexit Secretary who talks up a tough negotiation from a position of massive weakness and folds at the first opportunity. A chancellor not in command of the economy inside the cabinet never mind in the country. A foreign secretary who thinks foreign types should all give glorious Britannia what we deserve. A loon from the middle ages who looks at the way the Saudis treat women and thinks "good idea".

    A party full of genuine politicians would recognise their weakness and look to a way to stymie the bleeding - May must go, but the replacement is there only to provide a steady platform for Brexit and to allow the next generation to come forward. But the once ruthlessly effective Tories can't even see that, because of course they are ok no one will support Labour policies except the ones they are forced to steal because most people support them.

    So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Recent events prove again that most politicians are useless and not needed, we have 1000s of elected representatives and the majority do very little. The whole system needs a complete overhaul, leaving the EU is a start but its only a start.

    Reform the Lords, cut the number of MPs in half, remove either County or District Councils would save us a fortune and give these idiots less places to hide.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,365
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: quite a few penalties. Grid mostly good, Stroll could be in a better position, though.
  • Talks between the Labour Party and EU Brexit negotiators have intensified as fears grow on the Continent that the Conservatives may lose power to Jeremy Corbyn. Brussels has “significantly” increased back-room talks with Labour in an attempt to guarantee that promises made by the Tory negotiating team would be upheld in the event of a change of government, sources told The Daily Telegraph.

    An unnamed source said: “Corbyn is beginning to be taken seriously in Brussels. People didn’t quite know what he wants or what he thinks but that is changing.”
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Talks between the Labour Party and EU Brexit negotiators have intensified as fears grow on the Continent that the Conservatives may lose power to Jeremy Corbyn. Brussels has “significantly” increased back-room talks with Labour in an attempt to guarantee that promises made by the Tory negotiating team would be upheld in the event of a change of government, sources told The Daily Telegraph.

    An unnamed source said: “Corbyn is beginning to be taken seriously in Brussels. People didn’t quite know what he wants or what he thinks but that is changing.”

    An unnamed source. Was it a bloke on the bus?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 952
    nielh said:

    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
    My mood is similar.

    Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular.
    snip

    It is said that important people talk of ideas, and unimportant people of people. This is where the Tories are holed below the waterline. They concentrate on attacking the people on the Labour front bench (when not briefing against each other) while Labour has the philosophical field of ideas for themselves.
    snip
    " Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
    He cannot deliver on the stuff he is promising, and if he gets in to power, people will be angry and disappointed. The objective is to turn people against the capitalist system, and having a labour government is a part of that process.

    My own assessment is that he would do enormous damage to the British state, which if he gains control of (ie through a majority government stuffed with his fellow travellers), would simply be reorientated to promote the aims of international socialism. The damage would be lasting and terrible.

    His actual ideas are more eccentric populism than genuine socialism. It is Robin Hood. Take from the rich and give to the poor. These economics have been discredited over and over again. The tax reciepts would just diminish. The cost of borrowing would spiral out of control. How is it ever going to be different this time around?

    People have been duped. They are desperate and have succumbed to delusions in the face of an existential crisis. But the problem is that the capitalist system has been mismanaged, not that it is flawed in its own right. The ideology of neoliberalism needs to be reversed. Stronger governments. More international co-operation. Better regulation of business. Fairer taxes.

    That is the answer, not a unilateral declaration of international socialism. People are not willing to give up their cheap imported food, iphones and foreign holidays. They expect efficient public services and demand more and more all the time.

    Yawn. Turning Thatcher into a bogeyman did nothing to help the left, and doing the same to Corbyn won't help the right.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    Talks between the Labour Party and EU Brexit negotiators have intensified as fears grow on the Continent that the Conservatives may lose power to Jeremy Corbyn. Brussels has “significantly” increased back-room talks with Labour in an attempt to guarantee that promises made by the Tory negotiating team would be upheld in the event of a change of government, sources told The Daily Telegraph.

    An unnamed source said: “Corbyn is beginning to be taken seriously in Brussels. People didn’t quite know what he wants or what he thinks but that is changing.”

    Surely Labour are not bound by Tory promises?. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Staying in Customs Union and Single Market, while establishing the residency of our EU migrants does work as a solution, and sorts the NI border too.

    Kipper apoplexy guaranteed though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,160
    edited October 7
    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,160
    He might never have written a materpiece like 'Oh, Jeremy Corbyn' but for a Burnage lad he's very articulate
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    Yep there's some truth in that. This place is 90% male, by no means representative of the electorate, if she can hold on a while longer she might earn respect - in the face of adversity and all that. She's been in politics for years, will be aware how ghastly it is, she might just surprise and disappoint a few.
  • Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    That is a fair comment and Brexit will define her, one way or the other
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,365
    Mr. Choose, I was surprised how sympathetic to May my mother was (regarding the conference cough). She's very centrist, has voted Lib Dem and Green in the past (Conservative last time, I think).

    You are right to point out that there's a lopsided gender split here which might lead to us not giving sufficient weight to (if there is one) a feminine perspective where that differs substantially from the masculine.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    Yep there's some truth in that. This place is 90% male, by no means representative of the electorate, if she can hold on a while longer she might earn respect - in the face of adversity and all that. She's been in politics for years, will be aware how ghastly it is, she might just surprise and disappoint a few.
    I don't think so. The women that I know are repelled by her lack of social skills.

    One wonders how she got so far in politics on so little ability. Tories fantasised about having Maggie back. They didnt get it.

    One good thing is that the next big female Tory will not be endlessly measured against Maggie, but rather the much lower benchmark of May.
  • The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992
    edited October 7
    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    The problem for May is that she got herself into a position where she needed luck (or that bad luck could terminate her leadership).

    She has variable judgement and a weak team around her. Nothing about this week changes that. So we may find ourselves here again and again.

    If she had not called that election, the cough would not have mattered.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,242

    So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable

    The only thing holding the Conservative Party together is that they are not Labour. Once people start saying that Corbyn is not really that bad, as several posters have done on this thread, the Conservatives have nothing left to offer the country. And the more their head-banger tendency takes over, the less attractive they are to large swathes of the population.

    It is curious that both Labour and the Conservatives are from time to time posing with policies which they have lifted straight from the Liberal Democrats, and even from the old Liberal Party. They do this, not because they believe in these policies, but because they know that they are inherently reasonable and attractive. They do it to entice electors to lend them their votes - so that they can impose their own unattractive agenda.

    So a shake up of the moribund party structure? Yes, indeed, yes please! The sooner the better, Mr Pioneers. Liberal-minded people need to come together under the Lib Dem banner, and leave the hard-liners to argue for the extreme policies that they really want to implement.

    And the first step in this process is to change the voting system, so that electors have a real say in who represents them. That is what we really mean when we talk about "taking back control".
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    Yep there's some truth in that. This place is 90% male, by no means representative of the electorate, if she can hold on a while longer she might earn respect - in the face of adversity and all that. She's been in politics for years, will be aware how ghastly it is, she might just surprise and disappoint a few.
    I don't think so. The women that I know are repelled by her lack of social skills.

    One wonders how she got so far in politics on so little ability. Tories fantasised about having Maggie back. They didnt get it.

    One good thing is that the next big female Tory will not be endlessly measured against Maggie, but rather the much lower benchmark of May.
    To be fair the women you knew were also arch Remainers who were amazed we'd voted out, I remember you saying so repeatedly.

    This place is full of people who live in echo chambers, mainly egotistical, opinionated men. You know a few women who don't rate May, I'd suggest based on previous predictions your compass isn't very accurate.
  • Sky got hold of Boris whatsapp on the revolt and he has trashed the plotters and demanded loyalty to the PM. Wonder if his political antennae is wary of being associated with a plot mainly orchestrated by sacked former male ministers with an agenda
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,002
    edited October 7

    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
    My mood is similar.

    Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular. He looks comfortable in a suit, indeed quite dapper, and his style has softened to a more subtle one. This works well as he comes across as a genial old prophet. He has retained his stubbiness but is unfailingly polite when attacked, and listens before replying. British people like that. We like his amiable eccentricities and enthusiasms.

    The cult and football chant do seem to slightly embarrass Corbyn, but he manages it with reasonable modesty. Once again his personal self effacement contrasts well with May's claim of "Strong and Stable", which sounds very un-British in its arrogance and autocracy.

    It is said that important people talk of ideas, and unimportant people of people. This is where the Tories are holed below the waterline. They concentrate on attacking the people on the Labour front bench (when not briefing against each other) while Labour has the philosophical field of ideas for themselves.

    The Tories are a void of ideas, and what few they have are an incoherent mix of measures pinched from other parties. May cannot repair this, and Tories need to resolve their battle of ideas before they can function again. The reason for a leadership contest being necessary is not just to clear out the zombie of May, but to resolve their intellectual deficit. They need a better plan than being the party of anti-Corbyn.

    A plan for Brexit and for Britain is going to be a bodged job under May, and everyone can see that, not least the EU, but also the British electorate.

    " Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
    I think this assessment of the politics seems about right - though I am not at all reconciled to the prospect of Corbyn in power, however avuncular his demeanour might be. There is no such thing as a genial prophet; prophets should be allowed nowhere near power.


  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 952

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    Yep there's some truth in that. This place is 90% male, by no means representative of the electorate, if she can hold on a while longer she might earn respect - in the face of adversity and all that. She's been in politics for years, will be aware how ghastly it is, she might just surprise and disappoint a few.
    I don't think so. The women that I know are repelled by her lack of social skills.

    One wonders how she got so far in politics on so little ability. Tories fantasised about having Maggie back. They didnt get it.

    One good thing is that the next big female Tory will not be endlessly measured against Maggie, but rather the much lower benchmark of May.
    I think the reasons for her success are not so hard to find. She is hard working and can speak well. Take away the cough and it wasn't a bad speech. Her problem is a bit deeper. I don't think she has any core beliefs. Conservatives, whatever you think of them, just don't automatically support workers on company boards, subsidies to sectors of the market, interference in others and building more council houses. They might well do all those things if they seemed expedient. They might even get up in public and crow about them if circumstances required it. But they wouldn't just add them to the agenda without explanation or justification in the way May has done. It's a shame really.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992

    Sky got hold of Boris whatsapp on the revolt and he has trashed the plotters and demanded loyalty to the PM. Wonder if his political antennae is wary of being associated with a plot mainly orchestrated by sacked former male ministers with an agenda

    Maybe there are two Whatsapp groups? One carefully prepared and leaked to salvage the reputation of the blond one.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,011
    Dr Fox,

    "Staying in Customs Union and Single Market."

    The Kippers won't mind that - it's what goes with it. The EU are adamant that that FOM, making our own laws etc is wedded to this, therefore you can't have one without the other. It means not leaving the EU in any form whatsoever. I'm sure Starmer will describe it as a price worth paying, but the intention is never to leave.

    What's wrong with being honest and stating ... "I disagree with the nation's verdict, I don't accept it, and we've no intention of leaving the EU."
  • PClipp said:

    So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable

    The only thing holding the Conservative Party together is that they are not Labour. Once people start saying that Corbyn is not really that bad, as several posters have done on this thread, the Conservatives have nothing left to offer the country. And the more their head-banger tendency takes over, the less attractive they are to large swathes of the population.

    It is curious that both Labour and the Conservatives are from time to time posing with policies which they have lifted straight from the Liberal Democrats, and even from the old Liberal Party. They do this, not because they believe in these policies, but because they know that they are inherently reasonable and attractive. They do it to entice electors to lend them their votes - so that they can impose their own unattractive agenda.

    So a shake up of the moribund party structure? Yes, indeed, yes please! The sooner the better, Mr Pioneers. Liberal-minded people need to come together under the Lib Dem banner, and leave the hard-liners to argue for the extreme policies that they really want to implement.

    And the first step in this process is to change the voting system, so that electors have a real say in who represents them. That is what we really mean when we talk about "taking back control".
    Putting on one side party loyalties a new centrist party just now would seem to be an answer to the mess we are in but there is no 'Macron' anywhere and unfortunately for the Lib Dems they are not on the public's radar
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 952
    Jonathan said:

    Sky got hold of Boris whatsapp on the revolt and he has trashed the plotters and demanded loyalty to the PM. Wonder if his political antennae is wary of being associated with a plot mainly orchestrated by sacked former male ministers with an agenda

    Maybe there are two Whatsapp groups? One carefully prepared and leaked to salvage the reputation of the blond one.
    LOL
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    @recidivist

    "Her problem is a bit deeper. I don't think she has any core beliefs."

    Spot on, she stand for nothing. Recent results have shown the public is tired of nodding dogs, she needs to explain who she is and what she stands for.
  • Mr. Choose, I was surprised how sympathetic to May my mother was (regarding the conference cough). She's very centrist, has voted Lib Dem and Green in the past (Conservative last time, I think).

    You are right to point out that there's a lopsided gender split here which might lead to us not giving sufficient weight to (if there is one) a feminine perspective where that differs substantially from the masculine.

    Via David Herdson

    Massive gender gap still in voting intention (via YouGov, today):

    Men: Con 45 Lab 36 (Con +9)
    Women: Lab 47 Con 35 (Lab +12)

    21-point differential overall.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    Oh, you.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,822
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    The problem for May is that she got herself into a position where she needed luck (or that bad luck could terminate her leadership).

    She has variable judgement and a weak team around her. Nothing about this week changes that. So we may find ourselves here again and again.

    If she had not called that election, the cough would not have mattered.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. You say Theresa May has a weak team around her. She has a more professional team around her -- look how quickly the Shapps plot was snuffed out -- but not necessarily a trusted one now that her long-term confidantes Nick and Fiona are gone. The Prime Minister is clearly missing them -- she doesn't look confident or even comfortable in her own skin, and hasn't done since the election. She can't be forced out (unless she provokes a challenge); I expect her to step down.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,800

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    I think Marina Hyde got it right the other day when she said it was like watching two drunks fighting in a puddle. We have never had such a lamentably poor choice of leaders - and at the one time when the country absolutely needs competent leadership, and a clear, realistic vision for the future.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992

    @recidivist

    "Her problem is a bit deeper. I don't think she has any core beliefs."

    Spot on, she stand for nothing. Recent results have shown the public is tired of nodding dogs, she needs to explain who she is and what she stands for.

    She suffers from the same problem as Gordon Brown. She believes in her party and she believes in becoming PM. She therefore talks about 'duty' a great deal rather than vision.

    She has one thing left to do politically, securing her reputation and legacy. Until that is done she won't want to go. Policies are merely tools for repairing that reputation.

    She's not a bad person, but will never get to be a great leader in the way she wants. Those that get to the very top, like Thatcher, Attlee and Blair all want power to do something.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    PClipp said:

    So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable

    The only thing holding the Conservative Party together is that they are not Labour. Once people start saying that Corbyn is not really that bad, as several posters have done on this thread, the Conservatives have nothing left to offer the country. And the more their head-banger tendency takes over, the less attractive they are to large swathes of the population.

    It is curious that both Labour and the Conservatives are from time to time posing with policies which they have lifted straight from the Liberal Democrats, and even from the old Liberal Party. They do this, not because they believe in these policies, but because they know that they are inherently reasonable and attractive. They do it to entice electors to lend them their votes - so that they can impose their own unattractive agenda.

    So a shake up of the moribund party structure? Yes, indeed, yes please! The sooner the better, Mr Pioneers. Liberal-minded people need to come together under the Lib Dem banner, and leave the hard-liners to argue for the extreme policies that they really want to implement.

    And the first step in this process is to change the voting system, so that electors have a real say in who represents them. That is what we really mean when we talk about "taking back control".
    Putting on one side party loyalties a new centrist party just now would seem to be an answer to the mess we are in but there is no 'Macron' anywhere and unfortunately for the Lib Dems they are not on the public's radar
    Even with Corbyn in place the fact is now of the parties are strict in ideological purity. Which is not unusual , there are conservative parties in the world which are named the Liberal Party after all. But to my kind it makes forming new parties hard since the others do indeed steal the best ideas from each other even if it goes against professed ideology.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 610

    Recent events prove again that most politicians are useless and not needed, we have 1000s of elected representatives and the majority do very little. The whole system needs a complete overhaul, leaving the EU is a start but its only a start.

    Reform the Lords, cut the number of MPs in half, remove either County or District Councils would save us a fortune and give these idiots less places to hide.

    To bring about your ideas though you will have to join the idiots to gain sufficient influence and power to implement them. A four year stint on your local council may change your views that they do very little
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 38,365
    Mr. Eagles, very interesting gender stat breakdown.

    Proof, were it needed, that women love spending other people's money ;)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 6,822

    Sky got hold of Boris whatsapp on the revolt and he has trashed the plotters and demanded loyalty to the PM. Wonder if his political antennae is wary of being associated with a plot mainly orchestrated by sacked former male ministers with an agenda

    And they said Amber Rudd does not understand Whatsapp's encryption. :lol:
  • bradleabradlea Posts: 3
    A really excellent article
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992
    edited October 7

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    The problem for May is that she got herself into a position where she needed luck (or that bad luck could terminate her leadership).

    She has variable judgement and a weak team around her. Nothing about this week changes that. So we may find ourselves here again and again.

    If she had not called that election, the cough would not have mattered.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper. You say Theresa May has a weak team around her. She has a more professional team around her -- look how quickly the Shapps plot was snuffed out -- but not necessarily a trusted one now that her long-term confidantes Nick and Fiona are gone. The Prime Minister is clearly missing them -- she doesn't look confident or even comfortable in her own skin, and hasn't done since the election. She can't be forced out (unless she provokes a challenge); I expect her to step down.
    Details matter. All the problems at the conference, even the cough, were manageable with careful planning. Her team let her down by getting her into this mess. The fact that some managed to dig her out (with a ton of damage) entirely misses the point.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,011
    edited October 7
    Dr Fox,

    On re-reading, my previous comment might be confusing.

    Basically, the EU are saying we can only stay in the common market if we obey all the rules. That means staying in the EU without changes. Does Keir believe we can negotiate access without this? I personally find this posturing insulting to my intelligence, but perhaps I'm being touchy?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    Yep there's some truth in that. This place is 90% male, by no means representative of the electorate, if she can hold on a while longer she might earn respect - in the face of adversity and all that. She's been in politics for years, will be aware how ghastly it is, she might just surprise and disappoint a few.
    I don't think so. The women that I know are repelled by her lack of social skills.

    One wonders how she got so far in politics on so little ability. Tories fantasised about having Maggie back. They didnt get it.

    One good thing is that the next big female Tory will not be endlessly measured against Maggie, but rather the much lower benchmark of May.
    To be fair the women you knew were also arch Remainers who were amazed we'd voted out, I remember you saying so repeatedly.

    This place is full of people who live in echo chambers, mainly egotistical, opinionated men. You know a few women who don't rate May, I'd suggest based on previous predictions your compass isn't very accurate.
    No, I don't think I have ever said that the women I know are arch Remainers.

    Mrs Fox certainly is, though generally not taken with politics, as is Fox Jr's girlfriend. Granny fox voted Leave, and I posted here how several of my female work colleagues were voting Leave.

    It may well be that you have me confused with another PB poster.

    As TSE points out, Labour has a massive polling lead amongst women.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    I think you are on the wrong site asking that question Big g, as there are hardly any Corbyn supporters on here.Especially any who supported him from 2015.However he has made an amazing change from been derided as a no hoper to a contender with a decent chance of power.He does not fit into my centrist utopia, but his politeness under attack from everywhere is an endearing feature of his recent success.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,242

    PClipp said:

    So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable

    The only thing holding the Conservative Party together is that they are not Labour. Once people start saying that Corbyn is not really that bad, as several posters have done on this thread, the Conservatives have nothing left to offer the country. And the more their head-banger tendency takes over, the less attractive they are to large swathes of the population.

    It is curious that both Labour and the Conservatives are from time to time posing with policies which they have lifted straight from the Liberal Democrats, and even from the old Liberal Party. They do this, not because they believe in these policies, but because they know that they are inherently reasonable and attractive. They do it to entice electors to lend them their votes - so that they can impose their own unattractive agenda.

    So a shake up of the moribund party structure? Yes, indeed, yes please! The sooner the better, Mr Pioneers. Liberal-minded people need to come together under the Lib Dem banner, and leave the hard-liners to argue for the extreme policies that they really want to implement.

    And the first step in this process is to change the voting system, so that electors have a real say in who represents them. That is what we really mean when we talk about "taking back control".
    Putting on one side party loyalties a new centrist party just now would seem to be an answer to the mess we are in but there is no 'Macron' anywhere and unfortunately for the Lib Dems they are not on the public's radar
    The public`s radar, Mr Wales, is controlled by the mass media, which is largely in the hands of foreigners and porn kings. The last thing they want is for the people of this country to have any real say in the political process. If they did, the media moguls might not have such an easy ride.

    Why have we been fed anti-EU propaganda by the mass media for the last 40 years? Because the EU was big enough and strong enough to stand up for us against the vested interests that control the mass media, and seek to control even more of it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    Roger said:

    I'm not sure that in hindsight Theresa has been unlucky. Zeitgeist is a vey powerful force. Who hasn't had a bad cold or had an important moment destroyed by something out of your control. 'Shit Happens' and who can feel anything but contempt for those who try to steal an advantage when it does.

    May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.

    Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.

    Yep there's some truth in that. This place is 90% male, by no means representative of the electorate, if she can hold on a while longer she might earn respect - in the face of adversity and all that. She's been in politics for years, will be aware how ghastly it is, she might just surprise and disappoint a few.
    The cough and other issues with the speech were really just perfect from a media sense, the very setting itself seeming to visualise the weak and shambolic state she and the party are in.

    But if course it was just a cough and bad luck. I've often wondered at the good luck, good medicine and fortitude leaders have to so rarely seem to be ill during a campaign, when they cannot hideaway. I'm wiped out by colds a couple of times a year.

    However, some sympathy for her doesn't mean her position is not incredibly weak. Perhaps she can regain some authority if she sticks it out, and if she can manage that we'll done her - Corbyn managed it after all - but at present it's clear her cabinet are briefing against each other and her on preparation for a future contest, but she has no power to discipline them, which hinders how much she can recover.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,800
    edited October 7
    We don't get so many Tories on here bragging about how they were £3 Corbynites as we used to. Strange that!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable

    The only thing holding the Conservative Party together is that they are not Labour. Once people start saying that Corbyn is not really that bad, as several posters have done on this thread, the Conservatives have nothing left to offer the country. And the more their head-banger tendency takes over, the less attractive they are to large swathes of the population.

    It is curious that both Labour and the Conservatives are from time to time posing with policies which they have lifted straight from the Liberal Democrats, and even from the old Liberal Party. They do this, not because they believe in these policies, but because they know that they are inherently reasonable and attractive. They do it to entice electors to lend them their votes - so that they can impose their own unattractive agenda.

    So a shake up of the moribund party structure? Yes, indeed, yes please! The sooner the better, Mr Pioneers. Liberal-minded people need to come together under the Lib Dem banner, and leave the hard-liners to argue for the extreme policies that they really want to implement.

    And the first step in this process is to change the voting system, so that electors have a real say in who represents them. That is what we really mean when we talk about "taking back control".
    Putting on one side party loyalties a new centrist party just now would seem to be an answer to the mess we are in but there is no 'Macron' anywhere and unfortunately for the Lib Dems they are not on the public's radar
    The public`s radar, Mr Wales, is controlled by the mass media, which is largely in the hands of foreigners and porn kings. The last thing they want is for the people of this country to have any real say in the political process. If they did, the media moguls might not have such an easy ride.

    Why have we been fed anti-EU propaganda by the mass media for the last 40 years? Because the EU was big enough and strong enough to stand up for us against the vested interests that control the mass media, and seek to control even more of it.
    The nasty media brainwashed us, really?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104
    edited October 7
    nielh said:

    JohnLoony said:

    By 2022, people will realise how horrid Corbyn is, so May will lead the Conservative Party to a landslide victory like in 1931.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
    My mood is similar.

    Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular.
    snip

    It is themselves.
    snip
    " Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
    He cannot deliver on the stuff he is promising, and if he gets in to power, people will be angry and disappointed. The objective is to turn people against the capitalist system, and having a labour government is a part of that process.

    My own assessment is that he would do enormous damage to the British state, which if he gains control of (ie through a majority government stuffed with his fellow travellers), would simply be reorientated to promote the aims of international socialism. The damage would be lasting and terrible.

    His actual ideas are more eccentric populism than genuine socialism. It is Robin Hood. Take from the rich and give to the poor. These economics have been discredited over and over again. The tax reciepts would just diminish. The cost of borrowing would spiral out of control. How is it ever going to be different this time around?

    People have been duped. They are desperate and have succumbed to delusions in the face of an existential crisis. But the problem is that the capitalist system has been mismanaged, not that it is flawed in its own right. The ideology of neoliberalism needs to be reversed. Stronger governments. More international co-operation. Better regulation of business. Fairer taxes.

    That is the answer, not a unilateral declaration of international socialism. People are not willing to give up their cheap imported food, iphones and foreign holidays. They expect efficient public services and demand more and more all the time.

    The Tory Brexiteers sitting around the cabinet table have legitimised Cake And Eat It promises backed up by the Project Fear defence. Corbyn is taking advantage - and he will have Tory Brexit as an excuse for when it all goes wrong, just as it will for the reasons you outline. Whatever happens from here on in, the British people are going to feel hugely let down and deeply disappointed. It is not going to be pleasant. Good news for the SNP and Sinn Fein, though.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 633
    nichomar said:

    Recent events prove again that most politicians are useless and not needed, we have 1000s of elected representatives and the majority do very little. The whole system needs a complete overhaul, leaving the EU is a start but its only a start.

    Reform the Lords, cut the number of MPs in half, remove either County or District Councils would save us a fortune and give these idiots less places to hide.

    To bring about your ideas though you will have to join the idiots to gain sufficient influence and power to implement them. A four year stint on your local council may change your views that they do very little
    One of the major problems in the UK is that most people have no or very little understanding and knowledge of how our major institutions work. This seems to be a policy of governance from the year dot: If they don't know, they can't criticise! If they can't criticise, they can't take my head but I can have theirs....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    On re-reading, my previous comment might be confusing.

    Basically, the EU are saying we can only stay in the common market if we obey all the rules. That means staying in the EU without changes. Does Keir believe we can negotiate access without this? I personally find this posturing insulting to my intelligence, but perhaps I'm being touchy?

    I agree, Labour also have a "Cake and Eat it Policy"

    The question is: Can they deliver a better deal than the Tories?

    I believe they can. They are not hemmed in by the same red lines*, and do not have to answer to a europhobic constituency in their party. The EU is more likely to find the Labour parties Europhile instincts more to their taste.

    *Neither immigration nor European Courts would be non negotiatable for example.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,800
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable

    The only thing holding the Conservative Party together is that they are not Labour. Once people start saying that Corbyn is not really that bad, as several posters have done on this thread, the Conservatives have nothing left to offer the country. And the more their head-banger tendency takes over, the less attractive they are to large swathes of the population.

    It is curious that both Labour and the Conservatives are from time to time posing with policies which they have lifted straight from the Liberal Democrats, and even from the old Liberal Party. They do this, not because they believe in these policies, but because they know that they are inherently reasonable and attractive. They do it to entice electors to lend them their votes - so that they can impose their own unattractive agenda.

    So a shake up of the moribund party structure? Yes, indeed, yes please! The sooner the better, Mr Pioneers. Liberal-minded people need to come together under the Lib Dem banner, and leave the hard-liners to argue for the extreme policies that they really want to implement.

    And the first step in this process is to change the voting system, so that electors have a real say in who represents them. That is what we really mean when we talk about "taking back control".
    Putting on one side party loyalties a new centrist party just now would seem to be an answer to the mess we are in but there is no 'Macron' anywhere and unfortunately for the Lib Dems they are not on the public's radar
    The public`s radar, Mr Wales, is controlled by the mass media, which is largely in the hands of foreigners and porn kings. The last thing they want is for the people of this country to have any real say in the political process. If they did, the media moguls might not have such an easy ride.

    Why have we been fed anti-EU propaganda by the mass media for the last 40 years? Because the EU was big enough and strong enough to stand up for us against the vested interests that control the mass media, and seek to control even more of it.
    The mass media is nowhere near as powerful as it was, as is illustrated by Corbyn's Labour getting around 40% of the vote last June. I am also a little more optimistic than you are: people in general are not as easily duped as you suggest.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,011
    The Brexit negotiations are wedded to politics. The EU cannot be seen to lose, by giving way on, for example, FOM. If they did, it has to be extended to the other 27.

    Access to the single market is the same. Politically, it cannot be allowed otherwise the Germans will ask why are we contributing billions annually for this privilege. The rest of the so-called advantages are froth.

    Anyone who says we can negotiate full access to the common market and leave the EU is therefore lying. Why are they saying it then? Because they're frit of stating outright they disagree with democracy. At least the Liberals are honest.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    edited October 7
    nichomar said:

    Recent events prove again that most politicians are useless and not needed, we have 1000s of elected representatives and the majority do very little. The whole system needs a complete overhaul, leaving the EU is a start but its only a start.

    Reform the Lords, cut the number of MPs in half, remove either County or District Councils would save us a fortune and give these idiots less places to hide.

    To bring about your ideas though you will have to join the idiots to gain sufficient influence and power to implement them. A four year stint on your local council may change your views that they do very little
    Indeed so. And of course unitary authorities did mean districts and counties were done away with, reducing overall numbers, and even of those the local government boundary commission is now usually reducing their numbers, as in Cornwall where they'll be reduced by a third.

    Not sure how many more unitaries are on the horizon though, it can be a complicated process
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I find her very inconsistent. I've seen moments where she seems quick articulate and convincing, and others where she has bwen woeful.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,484

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

    I don't think it'd be a GE1997 result. The political landscape has changed, now, is much more demographic, and Thornberry wouldn't appeal to many of the semi-rural middle England seats that Blair won.

    But, I could see the Tories down to 200 seats or so.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,247
    Morning all :)

    A thoughtful and well-argued piece as always, David, for which many thanks. I'm not a Conservative so have no insight into how Party members feel or think about the current leadership. Historically, there has been a residual loyalty toward the incumbent even when said leader's position has become untenable but with a much reduced membership maybe that no longer applies.

    To state the obvious, it's the drip-drip of speculation, debate and gossip that does the damage. Parties which appear disunited rarely prosper and the perception of a Party or Government devouring itself from within isn't electorally appealing.

    From an outside perspective, watching the Conservatives immolate will be great fun but of course it's far more serious and important than that. I'm not referring to the prospect of a Corbyn-led Government about which, actually, I'm fairly sanguine (I've no millions to transfer to Jersey, Canada or the Cayman Islands or wherever) but the sense that if we are reaching a point as in 1945 and 1979 when the model of governance is broken or appears broken, what are we doing to fix it ?

    The crash of 2008 fatally undermined the centre-left's reputation for economic management which had supported such Governments for a decade but after a decade of "austerity" (however defined), the centre-right is in trouble too as people struggle along not making any meaningful progress and start asking why. Apart from asset values and those with money in the stock market, it's been hard going for millions of people - Corbyn offers a notion of an alternative and while we all know it lacks credibility (and many argued the same about monetarism once), it looks and sounds attractive.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,041
    edited October 7

    nielh said:

    JohnLoony said:

    31.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
    Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular.
    snip
    snip
    " Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
    He cannot deliver on the stuff he is promising, and if he gets in to power, people will be angry and disappointed. The objective is to turn people against the capitalist system, and having a labour government is a part of that process.

    My own assessment is that he would do enormous damage to the British state, which if he gains control of (ie through a majority government stuffed with his fellow travellers), would simply be reorientated to promote the aims of international socialism. The damage would be lasting and terrible.

    His actual ideas are more eccentric populism than genuine socialism. It is Robin Hood. Take from the rich and give to the poor. These economics have been discredited over and over again. The tax reciepts would just diminish. The cost of borrowing would spiral out of control. How is it ever going to be different this time around?

    People have been duped. They are desperate and have succumbed to delusions in the face of an existential crisis. But the problem is that the capitalist system has been mismanaged, not that it is flawed in its own right. The ideology of neoliberalism needs to be reversed. Stronger governments. More international co-operation. Better regulation of business. Fairer taxes.

    That is the answer, not a unilateral declaration of international socialism. People are not willing to give up their cheap imported food, iphones and foreign holidays. They expect efficient public services and demand more and more all the time.

    The Tory Brexiteers sitting around the cabinet table have legitimised Cake And Eat It promises backed up by the Project Fear defence. Corbyn is taking advantage - and he will have Tory Brexit as an excuse for when it all goes wrong, just as it will for the reasons you outline. Whatever happens from here on in, the British people are going to feel hugely let down and deeply disappointed. It is not going to be pleasant. Good news for the SNP and Sinn Fein, though.
    Yes indeed. The luckiest scenario for Labour is that Brexit is obviously going wrong at the point they get to take over, giving them the chance to blame the subsequent economic turmoil on the previous government in the time honoured fashion.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,011
    edited October 7
    Dr Fox,

    "Neither immigration nor European Courts would be non negotiatable for example."

    If so, will that not be seen as a defeat for the EU? People may even ask why it wasn't offered and been more acceptable if it had been offered when Cameron pretended to re-negotiate.

    Hmm ... I may have answered my only question there.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    We don't get so many Tories on here bragging about how they were £3 Corbynites as we used to. Strange that!

    Very true back in 2015 they were boasting how their £3 had finished the Labour Party .The glee during that time had no bounds
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103
    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I find her very inconsistent. I've seen moments where she seems quick articulate and convincing, and others where she has bwen woeful.
    When has she been woeful ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,041

    Mr. Choose, I was surprised how sympathetic to May my mother was (regarding the conference cough). She's very centrist, has voted Lib Dem and Green in the past (Conservative last time, I think).

    You are right to point out that there's a lopsided gender split here which might lead to us not giving sufficient weight to (if there is one) a feminine perspective where that differs substantially from the masculine.

    Via David Herdson

    Massive gender gap still in voting intention (via YouGov, today):

    Men: Con 45 Lab 36 (Con +9)
    Women: Lab 47 Con 35 (Lab +12)

    21-point differential overall.
    Which is even more striking when you consider the dramatic age-based pattern of voting behaviour together with the significant overweighting of females in the older Tory-leaning cohorts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    IanB2 said:

    nielh said:

    JohnLoony said:

    31.

    Not sure that's the direction of travel. My personal journey has been from "isn't he that crazy guy who supported the IRA?" to quite lking him. I have a feeling he will grow on people.
    Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular.
    snip
    snip
    " Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
    He cannot deliver on the stuff he is promising, and if he gets in to power, people will be angry and disappointed. The objective is to turn people against the capitalist system, and having a labour government is a part of that process.

    My own assessment is that he would do enormous damage to the British state, which if he gains control of (ie through a majority government stuffed with his fellow travellers), would simply be reorientated to promote the aims of international socialism. The damage would be lasting and terrible.

    His actual ideas are more eccentric populism than genuine socialism. It is Robin Hood. Take from the rich and give to the poor. These economics have been discredited over and over again. The tax reciepts would just diminish. The cost of borrowing would spiral out of control. How is it ever going to be different this time around?

    People have been duped. They are desperate and have succumbed to delusions in the face of an existential crisis. But the problem is that the capitalist system has been mismanaged, not that it is flawed in its own right. The ideology of neoliberalism needs to be reversed. Stronger governments. More international co-operation. Better regulation of business. Fairer taxes.

    That is the answer, not a unilateral declaration of international socialism. People s and demand more and more all the time.

    The Tory Brexiteers sitting around ugh.
    Yes indeed. The luckiest scenario for Labour is that Brexit is obviously going wrong at the point they get to take over, giving them the chance to blame the subsequent economic turmoil on the previous government in the time honoured fashion.
    Indeed that's what the GE was probably designed to prevent - if the tories had a comfortable to large majority, they'd probably be able to whether the storm In the early 2020s. It really has worked out well for labour - not needing to govern in this tricky period, and you can coast your years on blaming the last lot as the last labour government and the coalition proved. And people say traditional politics is dead.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 21,484
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    A thoughtful and well-argued piece as always, David, for which many thanks. I'm not a Conservative so have no insight into how Party members feel or think about the current leadership. Historically, there has been a residual loyalty toward the incumbent even when said leader's position has become untenable but with a much reduced membership maybe that no longer applies.

    To state the obvious, it's the drip-drip of speculation, debate and gossip that does the damage. Parties which appear disunited rarely prosper and the perception of a Party or Government devouring itself from within isn't electorally appealing.

    From an outside perspective, watching the Conservatives immolate will be great fun but of course it's far more serious and important than that. I'm not referring to the prospect of a Corbyn-led Government about which, actually, I'm fairly sanguine (I've no millions to transfer to Jersey, Canada or the Cayman Islands or wherever) but the sense that if we are reaching a point as in 1945 and 1979 when the model of governance is broken or appears broken, what are we doing to fix it ?

    The crash of 2008 fatally undermined the centre-left's reputation for economic management which had supported such Governments for a decade but after a decade of "austerity" (however defined), the centre-right is in trouble too as people struggle along not making any meaningful progress and start asking why. Apart from asset values and those with money in the stock market, it's been hard going for millions of people - Corbyn offers a notion of an alternative and while we all know it lacks credibility (and many argued the same about monetarism once), it looks and sounds attractive.

    I know you're not a Tory, Stodge, and you know I am too, so let's leave that to one side.

    I think the bigger problem is that May has no answer to any of the perfectly decent questions you ask.

    But, I think either Hunt and Gove would, not that they have the parliamentary numbers or direct mandate to do much with it, so I'd much prefer either to be PM.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104

    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    On re-reading, my previous comment might be confusing.

    Basically, the EU are saying we can only stay in the common market if we obey all the rules. That means staying in the EU without changes. Does Keir believe we can negotiate access without this? I personally find this posturing insulting to my intelligence, but perhaps I'm being touchy?

    I agree, Labour also have a "Cake and Eat it Policy"

    The question is: Can they deliver a better deal than the Tories?

    I believe they can. They are not hemmed in by the same red lines*, and do not have to answer to a europhobic constituency in their party. The EU is more likely to find the Labour parties Europhile instincts more to their taste.

    *Neither immigration nor European Courts would be non negotiatable for example.

    Yep, this is right. Labour may have splits over the EU, but they are not visceral and all consuming as they are in the Conservative party. In the grand scheme of things, EU membership is a second degree issue in Labour. For many Tories it is the only issue.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.
    I think you are correct Fox , just difficult for an old centrist like myself to grasp the changing reality.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 14,678
    Suggestions the UK will give in on the ECJ for EU citizens.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I find her very inconsistent. I've seen moments where she seems quick articulate and convincing, and others where she has bwen woeful.
    When has she been woeful ?
    You cannot expect me to recall on a tired Saturday morning specific dates and times, I think we can be permitted to speak generally? I can recall Corbyn making some decent points too, but would be hard pressed to come up with immediate examples.. In general impressions I have seen QT appeared appearances and interview clips where she came across very poorly, arrogant and unconvincing. But clearly she has some talent, so I don't know how much those were just off days
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,104

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The issue.

    Brexit the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.

    When did this Labour party exist, out of interest? The equivalents of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell were accusing Clement Attlee of betrayal and demanding his resignation as soon as the 1945 general election was won. The Wilson and Callaghan governments were held in utter contempt by the Corbyn/McDonnell faction, while we all know what they thought about the Blair/Brown years.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416
    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    "Neither immigration nor European Courts would be non negotiatable for example."

    If so, will that not be seen as a defeat for the EU? People may even ask why it wasn't offered and been more acceptable if it had been offered when Cameron pretended to re-negotiate.

    Hmm ... I may have answered my only question there.

    I think that Labour would be willing to have preferential migration policy for EU nationals, and be happy to stay in the European courts. Neither are a dealbreaker for them, and would unlock the Brexit talks deadlock.

    FOM in search of work, but retrictions on claiming state aid, may well be viable from both sides, making for permanent CU.

    The current Tory strategy is heading to rapid WTO hard Brexit. Either we start making proper plans for that, or we concede on FOM and European courts.

    LINO? Yes, it would be seen that way by some.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 6,992

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The issue.

    Brexit the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.

    When did this Labour party exist, out of interest? The equivalents of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell were accusing Clement Attlee of betrayal and demanding his resignation as soon as the 1945 general election was won. The Wilson and Callaghan governments were held in utter contempt by the Corbyn/McDonnell faction, while we all know what they thought about the Blair/Brown years.

    Corbyn is not a radical. He is a reactionary conservative, albeit of the left.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,008
    Theresa May has never tried to lead. On luck: Gary Player noted that the harder he practised the luckier he got. Theresa May didn't practise and so couldn't use the luck she got.

    Time for someone who is willing to try.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 22,416

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The issue.

    Brexit the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.

    When did this Labour party exist, out of interest? The equivalents of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell were accusing Clement Attlee of betrayal and demanding his resignation as soon as the 1945 general election was won. The Wilson and Callaghan governments were held in utter contempt by the Corbyn/McDonnell faction, while we all know what they thought about the Blair/Brown years.

    I meant rebuilding in the sense of building again in a new style. It doesn't necessarily mean that it was ever in that style before.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The real nightmare for the Tories

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.
    You know, it occurs to me I dont know if neo liberalism has ever really been defined to me, at least not in way I recall. Say what you will about people being overly broad defining and criticising people for socialism or communism, it's generally clear the direction of travel.

    Do critics of neo liberalism dislike liberalism too? I genuinely don't know.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,038

    We don't get so many Tories on here bragging about how they were £3 Corbynites as we used to. Strange that!

    Mike's probably banned most of them... ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 26,101
    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The issue.

    Brexit the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.

    When did this Labour party exist, out of interest? The equivalents of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell were accusing Clement Attlee of betrayal and demanding his resignation as soon as the 1945 general election was won. The Wilson and Callaghan governments were held in utter contempt by the Corbyn/McDonnell faction, while we all know what they thought about the Blair/Brown years.

    Corbyn is not a radical. He is a reactionary conservative, albeit of the left.
    A bold statement to make indeed.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,103


    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.

    Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.



    The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.



    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.

    I find her very inconsistent. I've seen moments where she seems quick articulate and convincing, and others where she has bwen woeful.

    When has she been woeful ?

    You cannot expect me to recall on a tired Saturday morning specific dates and times, I think we can be permitted to speak generally? I can recall Corbyn making some decent points too, but would be hard pressed to come up with immediate examples.. In general impressions I have seen QT appeared appearances and interview clips where she came across very poorly, arrogant and unconvincing. But clearly she has some talent, so I don't know how much those were just off days

    Yes that is fair enough.In my opinion she has been impressive , can not remember an embarrassing Abbot type occasion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,041

    Yorkcity said:

    The question I have to those who seem to think Corbyn is the Messiah how far is he and labour ahead in the polling. The polling evidence still shows Theresa May ahead as best PM, and the polls movement is no more than MOE.

    Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May

    I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable

    You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.

    The issue.

    Brexit the job.

    The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.

    The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.

    The than 1997.

    Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
    I am not so sure. Thornberry is a good campaigner, but Corbyn needs to stay for longer. The rebuilding of Labour as a radical party willing to scrap the neo-liberalism that both ends of the political spectrum have turned against is not yet finished. Labour is regaining its soul at the same time as the Tories are losing their own.

    One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.

    When did this Labour party exist, out of interest? The equivalents of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell were accusing Clement Attlee of betrayal and demanding his resignation as soon as the 1945 general election was won. The Wilson and Callaghan governments were held in utter contempt by the Corbyn/McDonnell faction, while we all know what they thought about the Blair/Brown years.

    People just want change, and Corbyn's was the only serious offer on the table. May had failed to deliver on her promises from the Downing Street steps, and is mired in Brexit, and the LibDems allowed themselves to be painted as the status quo party.

    If you are unhappy with how things are, you vote for change, and don't spend too much time thinking about the detail of the only change on offer. History is full of such happenings.
This discussion has been closed.