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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe

EU: Support for Independence, Katapult poll of polls:

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,997
    edited October 8
    First to split.

    Edit: and an excellent piece, thanks Alastair.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,576
    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,092
    On current trends, Scottish splitters would then themselves lose Orkney and Shetland (and the oil....)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    edited October 8
    56% in Venice (and environs), really? I knew there was some sentiment, but that is high, even recognising the relatively recent formation of the modern Italian state and historical Venetian sovereignty.

    I note that in every case where separatist sentiment is surging (bar Sardinia), the secessionist part is at least as rich as its host

    Interesting indeed. Someone yesterday was suggesting an impact of increased globilization wherein we still care, in identity terms, with our very immediate neighbours, but harder to identify with the larger national boundaries. If regions are wealthier and feel a lack of connection to the larger state like that, it would explain why they are more keen to break away.

    But doesn't that line above contradict the bit immediately below, placing support for Venetian independence as part of the trend of 'strident nativism' of the poor and ill-educated? Do the poor and ill-educated make up the majority in a wealthy/average region? I guess with so many different areas no trend will be perfect in any case, too many local factors.

    Some tough issues for the EU to grapple with in particular.
  • Although not (yet) part of the EU, I suspect support for independence for the Serb Entity in Bosnia would be approaching 100%.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125
    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,644
    Interesting piece, thanks Alastair. Our attitudes to secession are coloured by our general attitudes - why, for instance, are we generally sympathetic to the Catalans but hostile to pro-Russian Ukranians?

    On the whole, small countries work best insofar as they have the power to influnce events - it's not accidental that Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries are top of most "nice to live in" lists, and some of the ex-Soviet and ex-Baltic small countries seem to be doing well. The two snags are that historically small countries got invaded by big ones (less common now) and globalisation makes it harder to control your fate (but this applies to medium-sized countries too).

    Perhaps the long-term goal of the EU should be to hold the ring for the big stuff that needs a continent-wide negotiating punch, while leaving as much as possible to small countries regions that people readily identify with. In theory this is built into the subsidiarity principle, but in practice national governments have been able to block empowerment of the regions. Maybe Juncker should be positively encouraging Scottish and Cornish separatism...
  • Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 878

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
    Peoples Republic of Pimlico?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,244
    At the time of Pangaea Scotland was nowhere near England but on the equator. It was only when the Laurentian continent collided with Avalonia that the two became joined.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
    One Russia is enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    The existence of so many very low populated countries probably makes it easier to sell the idea of separation, particularly in Europe where, as pointed out, some things are hardly likely to change, like currency, or at least that would be the idea.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,244

    At the time of Pangaea Scotland was nowhere near England but on the equator. It was only when the Laurentian continent collided with Avalonia that the two became joined.

    See
    https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Plate-Tectonics/Chap4-Plate-Tectonics-of-the-UK/Caledonian-Orogeney
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 512
    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    Immediately after WW2 there was a surge in secessionism in NW Germany among people who wanted to re-establish Hanover as a state. As Lower Saxony is effectively Hanover plus Oldenburg, Brunswick and a few other bits I suppose they got their way.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,303
    glw said:

    If May has the slightest bit of sense she will never utter the words British dream ever again.

    I have a suggestion for an alternative, I call it the big society...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,644
    FPT - Some of my pleasantest chill-holidays have been down in Devon like Marquee Mark and others on the last thread - it seems to manage rural peace and views without too much tourist-trappery, which can be a hazard in Cornwall. I usually stay at my cousin's windmill, which she rents out as a variety holiday cottage (not intended as an advert, just an illustration of the pleasures available):

    http://devonwindmills.co.uk/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    edited October 8

    Interesting piece, thanks Alastair. Our attitudes to secession are coloured by our general attitudes - why, for instance, are we generally sympathetic to the Catalans but hostile to pro-Russian Ukranians?

    On the whole, small countries work best insofar as they have the power to influnce events - it's not accidental that Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries are top of most "nice to live in" lists, and some of the ex-Soviet and ex-Baltic small countries seem to be doing well. The two snags are that historically small countries got invaded by big ones (less common now) and globalisation makes it harder to control your fate (but this applies to medium-sized countries too).

    Perhaps the long-term goal of the EU should be to hold the ring for the big stuff that needs a continent-wide negotiating punch, while leaving as much as possible to small countries regions that people readily identify with. In theory this is built into the subsidiarity principle, but in practice national governments have been able to block empowerment of the regions. Maybe Juncker should be positively encouraging Scottish and Cornish separatism...

    A Europe of city-states, and a Federal EU manging continent-wide issues is a rather attactive one for many. A United States of Europe.

    It is true that many of the older countries were forged by war, conquest and colonialism. Now that those have gone, perhaps we can revert to older more local forms.

    Also worth noting is that seccessionism is not just a European phenomenon. West Papua wants a referendum, and the Rohingya are not the only Myamarese people wanting autonomy, as indeed do the Sikhs, Sind, Mindanao etc etc.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
    me too
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450

    At the time of Pangaea Scotland was nowhere near England but on the equator. It was only when the Laurentian continent collided with Avalonia that the two became joined.

    See
    https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Plate-Tectonics/Chap4-Plate-Tectonics-of-the-UK/Caledonian-Orogeney
    Not strictly true. Only the very north western tip of Scotland, north and west of Ullapool along a line delineated by the Moine Thrust, was on the far side of the Iapetus. At the same time parts of New Foundland were on the other side along with the bulk of Scotland and the rest of the British Isles.

    Incidently the Iapetus was discovered and named by my tutor at Cardiff University, Rodney Gayer.
  • NonreglaNonregla Posts: 35
    edited October 8
    "If (Theresa May is) allowed to remain leader she’ll stay put till 2022."

    In the extremely unlikely event that she is still prime minister when the Commons vote on the Brexit deal, which may happen in 2019, she will resign within hours if she loses the vote.

    The chance of her fighting the next general election is tiny in any scenario.
  • NonreglaNonregla Posts: 35
    edited October 8

    A Europe of city-states, and a Federal EU manging continent-wide issues is a rather attactive one for many.

    A "Europe of a 100 flags" - the dream of Yann Fouéré and many on the European far right, including the fans of Julius Evola. Gabriele D'Annunzio could have gone for that dream too, I reckon.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
  • NonreglaNonregla Posts: 35
    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    "Czechia" has always been the sensible name to use, for those who wish to distinguish between the country and its current politial regime.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    Nonregla said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    "Czechia" has always been the sensible name to use, for those who wish to distinguish between the country and its current politial regime.
    Similar to France and The French Republic.
  • RobD said:

    Nonregla said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    "Czechia" has always been the sensible name to use, for those who wish to distinguish between the country and its current politial regime.
    Similar to France and The French Republic.
    Not like France and Vichy France?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527

    RobD said:

    Nonregla said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    "Czechia" has always been the sensible name to use, for those who wish to distinguish between the country and its current politial regime.
    Similar to France and The French Republic.
    Not like France and Vichy France?
    I suppose supporters of Vichy France called it France. :p
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 512
    edited October 8
    RobD said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html
    Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

    And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527
    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html
    Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

    And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?
    According to my quick browse of wikipedia, Bohemia is about half/two thirds of the Czech republic. It'd be a bit like renaming the UK to England.... *waits to be bludgeoned by a turnip*
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html
    Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

    And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?
    Bohemia and Moravia would possibly do, at risk of further secession.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 291
    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html
    Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

    And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?
    Ask a Moravian!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478

    rpjs said:

    RobD said:

    Essexit said:

    Second. And Slovakia and the Czech Republic?

    It's Czechia now.
    Both are valid. The embassy still uses the older name, for example: http://www.mzv.cz/london/en/index.html
    Interesting seeing as it was the Czech government that announced it wanted English-speakers to use “Czechia” henceforth a couple of years ago.

    And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?
    Bohemia and Moravia would possibly do, at risk of further secession.
    Bohemoravia might work, although it would sound like an acid house party.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,527

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    RobD said:

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?
    Moldova was part of Romania too, until 1940.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,650

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    There are the Koreas,and China/Taiwan, notwithstanding obvious difficulties therein.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    Wallonia with France
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    On separatism and recent rallies, it is handy how protestors think of the international audience, I presume, by including english language signs. Maybe I'm wrong, but I cannot think of another reason there would be signs saying 'We are Catalans; We are Spanish' in English during a unity rally.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,650
    edited October 8
    This is not only happening in Europe. Seems it is spreading to Brazil.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41541063
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    dixiedean said:

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    There are the Koreas,and China/Taiwan, notwithstanding obvious difficulties therein.
    China and Hong Kong and Macau.

    Sikkim joined India in the Seventies too.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    hi
    dixiedean said:

    This is not only happening in Europe. Seems it is spreading to Brazil.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41541063

    In West Papua 70% have signed the Independence petition,:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/27/banned-west-papua-independence-petition-un
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,972
    edited October 8
    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,364

    dixiedean said:

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    There are the Koreas,and China/Taiwan, notwithstanding obvious difficulties therein.
    China and Hong Kong and Macau.

    Sikkim joined India in the Seventies too.
    Of course, China has a number of areas that aren't 100% happy being part of the Celestial Empire...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
    The Allies deliberately sought to erase Prussian identity after WWII.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,650

    hi

    dixiedean said:

    This is not only happening in Europe. Seems it is spreading to Brazil.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41541063

    In West Papua 70% have signed the Independence petition,:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/27/banned-west-papua-independence-petition-un
    West Papua seems, on the face of it, a quite obvious case of an accident of colonialism.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 1,411
    The main problem the EU will have if Catalonia becomes independent is that it will unravel the consensus in the East.

    No wonder Victor Orban is keen to recognise Catalonia, for example. There are ample areas of Romania, Serbia or Slovakia where Hungarians are in a majority.

    Historically, small border disputes in Eastern Europe have a habit of engulfing the entire continent in War.

    The most ridiculous example of a territory that clearly does not belong to its present country is South Tyrol. An ancient entity, the Tyrol, was split, and the southern portion given to Italy as a war prize after WW1.

    It is even today overwhelmingly German speaking. I would have thought if Catalonia does make it, South Tyrol will surely want to re-join the rest of the Tyrol in Austria
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 908

    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    Thats a borderline psychotically panglossian reading of events to be honest, and a great illustration of the point of view satirised in this cartoon : https://thenib.com/radical-centrism-101

    Almost beyond parody.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,092
    RobD said:

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?
    Not Yemen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Yemen for the full story
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125
    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    Immediately after WW2 there was a surge in secessionism in NW Germany among people who wanted to re-establish Hanover as a state. As Lower Saxony is effectively Hanover plus Oldenburg, Brunswick and a few other bits I suppose they got their way.

    The Guelph Party opposed Hanover's incorporation into the German Empire, and their successors managed to win Bundestag seats into the 1950s.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
    The Allies deliberately sought to erase Prussian identity after WWII.
    Were we still allies of the Soviets during that period?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
    The Allies deliberately sought to erase Prussian identity after WWII.
    Were we still allies of the Soviets during that period?
    Technically.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,092

    FPT - Some of my pleasantest chill-holidays have been down in Devon like Marquee Mark and others on the last thread - it seems to manage rural peace and views without too much tourist-trappery, which can be a hazard in Cornwall. I usually stay at my cousin's windmill, which she rents out as a variety holiday cottage (not intended as an advert, just an illustration of the pleasures available):

    http://devonwindmills.co.uk/

    That looks to have a rather splendid location, Nick!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,972
    JWisemann said:

    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    Thats a borderline psychotically panglossian reading of events to be honest, and a great illustration of the point of view satirised in this cartoon : https://thenib.com/radical-centrism-101

    Almost beyond parody.
    Since my point was a very pessimistic one, perhaps you don't know the meaning of Panglossian.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 512

    The main problem the EU will have if Catalonia becomes independent is that it will unravel the consensus in the East.

    No wonder Victor Orban is keen to recognise Catalonia, for example. There are ample areas of Romania, Serbia or Slovakia where Hungarians are in a majority.

    Historically, small border disputes in Eastern Europe have a habit of engulfing the entire continent in War.

    The most ridiculous example of a territory that clearly does not belong to its present country is South Tyrol. An ancient entity, the Tyrol, was split, and the southern portion given to Italy as a war prize after WW1.

    It is even today overwhelmingly German speaking. I would have thought if Catalonia does make it, South Tyrol will surely want to re-join the rest of the Tyrol in Austria

    They do have a very high degree of autonomy though, and Schengen, the single-market / customs union and the Euro mean there’s little to practically divide them from their fellow Tyroleans any more. I’ve read that the similar impact on the everyday lives of Basques across the Franco-Spanish border is one of the reasons why Basque separatism has died down in recent years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    The United Arab Republic, and Senegambia, although they only lasted briefly.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 512

    dixiedean said:

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    There are the Koreas,and China/Taiwan, notwithstanding obvious difficulties therein.
    China and Hong Kong and Macau.

    Sikkim joined India in the Seventies too.
    Southern British Cameroons joined formerly French Cameroon in the early 60s, although many Anglophones in Cameroon now regret that as the Francophones run the country today.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,644
    edited October 8

    FPT - Some of my pleasantest chill-holidays have been down in Devon like Marquee Mark and others on the last thread - it seems to manage rural peace and views without too much tourist-trappery, which can be a hazard in Cornwall. I usually stay at my cousin's windmill, which she rents out as a variety holiday cottage (not intended as an advert, just an illustration of the pleasures available):

    http://devonwindmills.co.uk/

    That looks to have a rather splendid location, Nick!
    Yes, it's lovely - from the 360-degree viewing room at the top one can see everything from distant hills to the edge of the sea. One needs good legs to stay there as the living room/kitchen, bedroom, bathroom and viewing area are each on their own floor, but if one doesn't mind that it's pretty nice, and as peaceful as anywhere in Britain. My cousin's husband, a former RAF test pilot with an eventful career, has his private plane parked in a hangar at the end of a nearby field and would probably show it off if urged - my cousin gave him a flight in a Biggin Hill Spitfire for his 75th birthday, and he looped the loop, to the terror of the organisers.

    They live quietly in a little cottage and grow apples, with a little income from the mill, while I dash about doing animal welfare and political stuff and travelling constantly. Sneaking bits of us envy each other, I think. Happiness comes in various packages, doesn't it?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 512

    RobD said:

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    Aren't the first three examples of entities that were forcibly split up in the first place?
    Moldova was part of Romania too, until 1940.

    But only since 1918, and there were a lot of non-Romanians in it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,907
    edited October 8
    Catalan nationalism is a left and right thing. Puigedemont - who leads the Catalan government - is from the centre right, as was his predecessor Artur Mas. This makes the independence coalition very fragile.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,842

    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

    It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

    And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 512
    Sean_F said:

    I was musing on whether there are many national entities wanting merger with neighbouring countries.

    The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?

    The United Arab Republic, and Senegambia, although they only lasted briefly.
    The Gambians were never really interested in Senegambia right from the start and it never really existed beyond paper. Similar to the various unions and federations Gadaffi kept trying to start, although it could be argued that to a large extent the modern African Union is his legacy.

    There’s also the Russia-Belarus “Union State” which Belarus’s Lukashenko hoped would be a resurrection of the Soviet Union, but which never really got anywhere either. (Although when we went to Russia last month the immigration form was a joint Russian Federation / Republic of Belarus one.)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,907
    Cyclefree said:

    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

    It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

    And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.

    Your first paragraph describes Catalan separatists' views of Spain perfectly. They want independence because they do not wish to subsidise what they see as feckless, ignorant Spanish peasants and because they see themselves as culturally superior. They don't like it when you point out Catalan wealth derives from it being a part of Spain. It's puzzling so many on the left back them. Less surprising that Farage, Putin et al do.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,579
    edited October 8
    Cyclefree said:

    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

    It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

    And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.
    Way back in the 1960s we used to employ a few Italians. The love between those from the north and south was obvious, expressed in arguments, and on odd occasions with knives.

    Had to manage who worked with who in those days.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,997
    Off-topic:

    This story seems (ahem) somewhat interesting:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-41542875
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,907
    Very big pro-unity march in Barcelona today. The silent majority is beginning to speak:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Good evening, everyone.

    Will try and write the post-race ramble, having watched highlights.

    Identity's a complicated beast, and not helped by cackhanded, narrow-minded, short-sighted and bloody idiotic constitutional tinkering.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    Contingency plans in case the UK has to leave the EU with no deal in place are "well under way", a minister has said.
    Dominic Raab said while the UK had to "strive for the very best outcome" from Brexit negotiations, it had to "prepare for all eventualities".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41544588
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    Scotland haven't had 4 clean sheets in a row since 1997.

    Nae problemo.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368
    DavidL said:

    Scotland haven't had 4 clean sheets in a row since 1997.

    Nae problemo.

    Will it be The Red Army v The Tartan Army next summer? :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375

    Good evening, everyone.

    Will try and write the post-race ramble, having watched highlights.

    Identity's a complicated beast, and not helped by cackhanded, narrow-minded, short-sighted and bloody idiotic constitutional tinkering.

    I am delighted LH is a major step towards a 4th title but as a spectacle this race died with Vettels spark plug.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,125
    Cyclefree said:

    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?

    It’s not just a lack of cultural affinity with the Italian South. It’s a disdain for it and resentment at having to subsidise it. L’Italia meridionale - as the South is known - is seen by some in the North of Italy as little better than Egypt or some quasi-African country.

    And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.
    It is an extraordinary contrast. North of Rome, you could be in Bavaria or Switzerland. South of Rome, you could be in North Africa, despite which, Naples is my favourite Italian city.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478

    Contingency plans in case the UK has to leave the EU with no deal in place are "well under way", a minister has said.
    Dominic Raab said while the UK had to "strive for the very best outcome" from Brexit negotiations, it had to "prepare for all eventualities".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41544588

    Carlotta, do you have any idea who the future Tory leadership contender who said this is?

    A year ago, a friend and I left a referendum results party early and passed a lone Brexiteer MP, a young star occasionally tipped for the Tory leadership. Drunkenly bellowing at a friend, he roared with success. “Sterling falling? Who the fuck cares if sterling’s falling? You’ll be all right; I’ll be all right. It’s a revolution!”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/tory-party-reputation-new-leader
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm surprised support for Bavarian independence is still as high as 26%. I suppose there's still nostalgia among CSU supporters for the Kingdom of Bavaria.

    I’m in favour of bringing back Prussia
    The Allies deliberately sought to erase Prussian identity after WWII.
    Not least, much of historic Prussia is now in Poland and the Kalingrad Oblast of Russia, with an entirely different population!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    Scotland haven't had 4 clean sheets in a row since 1997.

    Nae problemo.

    Will it be The Red Army v The Tartan Army next summer? :)
    There has got to be at least 3 more episodes of angst and despair first. That goes with the territory. And even if we make the playoffs there are some draws we really wouldn't want (Portugal, Italy, Sweden, hell, even Wales) but we dream.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,884
    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Mr. L, yeah, it's a bit of a rubbish ending to a cracking season.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    King of the North, King of the North, Gordon Strachan King of the North.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Mr. L, that's Sean Bean, surely?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,884
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    King of the North, King of the North, Gordon Strachan King of the North.
    I really hope Scotland qualify.

    The Tartan Army will be great for the tournament.

    Would love to see Barry Bannan perform on the highest stage too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375

    Mr. L, that's Sean Bean, surely?

    No it was his son. And it did not end well.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,364
    JWisemann said:

    Contrary to received opinion, I rather think that votes for secession, and the vote for Brexit, and the vote for Trump, and the extraordinary statistic that 40% of the British electorate voted for Corbyn and McDonnell, are symptoms of an excessive feeling of social and economic security: people think they haven't got much to lose, not because they have nothing, but because they think there's really no risk.

    Thats a borderline psychotically panglossian reading of events to be honest, and a great illustration of the point of view satirised in this cartoon : https://thenib.com/radical-centrism-101

    Almost beyond parody.
    Ummm. Is it?

    I think the point Richard is making is that people don't feel there is much downside in demanding new arrangements.

    Now, the question is whether they feel that way because they are struggling with no healthcare, no food, and no hope. Or whether it's because they feel secure that the the top part of Maslow's hierarchy of needs will continue to be met irrespective of who the government it.

    Let's not forget: people in "the West" live longer, are healthier, better educated and have more material needs met than at any time in human history. What they struggle with is that the traditional measure of worth in the eyes of others is their social status - usually determined by them being in a secure and specialised job.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,360

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,884
    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.
    They have to win as Slovakia only playing Malta
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.
    This is normal. Nothing is ever easy.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,360
    True I hope Scotland can do it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    Ok. Officially worried now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,070

    On current trends, Scottish splitters would then themselves lose Orkney and Shetland (and the oil....)

    The looneys are out today
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,070
    DavidL said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.
    This is normal. Nothing is ever easy.
    They don't look as if they could score in a brothel with a ten pounds and a doctor's line
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.
    This is normal. Nothing is ever easy.
    They don't look as if they could score in a brothel with a ten pounds and a doctor's line
    I could dream of 1, 2 is a bit of an ask.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,782
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    YESSSSSSS

    Scotland score!!!!

    We're on the march with Gordons Army..

    We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
    1-1 not so sure if the Scots now are going into the play offs.
    This is normal. Nothing is ever easy.
    They don't look as if they could score in a brothel with a ten pounds and a doctor's line
    That's a generous comment about England.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    What a goal!!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    The reason Brexit got 52% (and not 40%) is because a significant number of affluent middle class eurosceptics also voted for it for constitutional reasons. It had broad enough roots right across the political spectrum, from left to right, for it to carry the day.

    That makes it different to all the other examples cited, including Trump, who not only scored a minority of the vote, but was nationally outpolled by Hillary.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,070
    DavidL said:

    What a goal!!!!

    Usual from us, so near yet so far
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    What a goal!!!!

    Usual from us, so near yet so far
    Aye, the wee free mac na fees could get out of anywhere but a pub. Pratchett could have added qualifying groups.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    Feck.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 18,070
    DavidL said:

    Feck.

    You knew it would end this way David, it always does.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Feck.

    You knew it would end this way David, it always does.
    2-2 against Slovenia away from home is not a bad result. It is those first 4 games that killed us. TBH there is not one international class player in this team. Strachan has done remarkable things with a very ordinary squad. But I suspect that is it for him.
This discussion has been closed.