Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening betting wrap: Next CON leader and successor to May

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening betting wrap: Next CON leader and successor to May as PM

Follow @MSmithsonPB // < ![CDATA[ // < ![CDATA[ xfunction(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs"); // ]]>

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,549
    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,303

    A University of Oxford college banned Christian Union representatives from attending its freshers’ fair over concerns at the “potential for harm to freshers”.

    Balliol Christian Union (CU) was told the college’s student body, the JCR, wanted the freshers’ fair to be a “secular space”, according to Oxford’s student newspaper Cherwell.

    Eventually the CU was told that a single multi-faith stall would be allowed to display leaflets, though no representatives would be allowed to staff it, according to leaked emails seen by the paper. Balliol CU boycotted this option.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/09/anger-as-oxford-college-bans-christian-group-from-freshers-fair?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    According to the paper, he added: “Christianity’s influence on many marginalised communities has been damaging in its methods of conversion and rules of practice, and is still used in many places as an excuse for homophobia and certain forms of neo-colonialism.”

    I bet he wouldn't say that about certain other faiths...
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,360
    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Well Dave got out for an easier life.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/09/david-cameron-takes-job-with-us-electronic-payments-firm-first-data
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,530
    edited October 9
    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    The second referendum will be needed simply to get us out of this mess and to save our face! This is going to be a disaster of epic proportions.

    In one respect, I would like the Tories to go through this and then be out of power for two elections, at least. On the other hand, the country is going to be right royally fu**ed!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,303
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/09/ben-jerrys-to-launch-glyphosate-free-ice-cream-after-tests-find-traces-of-weedkiller

    I don't remember seeing weedkiller as a flavour in my local store. FYI, if people want a much healthy (way less calories, no sugar, but still actually has milk and cream in it), I can highly recommend Oppo.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,914
    edited October 9
    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People were warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck, they still voted for it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,303
    edited October 9

    twitter.com/DocHackenbush/status/917443686769754114

    TBH, it is pretty easy to alter any image these days....and researchers have recently shown incredibly realistic video equivalent of "photoshopping", where they had Obama giving speeches saying things he has never said in his life.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    I see pb.com is in mass panic mode this evening.

    FWIW, I think the white papers on the Trade and Customs bills are actually quite good (and I recommend reading them, rather than just reading the attack tweets of those who have their own pre-existing agendas).

    The Government position is correct. Negotiations are clearly going to go down to the wire. Only once we have a clear agreed framework for the future can we start the transition process to it. We will need those 2 years to line up new trade deals, and prepare our institutional infrastructure for Brexit. Neither Parliament nor the civil service can do it any quicker. And nor, quite frankly, can private business.

    Let's see what the EU offers in terms of detail, but I'd suspect we'd "formally" quit on 29th March 2019, with slightly reduced net contributions, the ability to formally start trade talks elsewhere, and CFP/CAP coming back straight away.

    If it does look *exactly* the same as EU membership, in every single regard, then I'd agree May would have a political problem, but let's wait and see.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,150

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.

    The turmoil in the Tory party, however, could indeed steer us onto the rocks.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    FPT - I agree with RoyalBlue.

    Interstellar is a phenomenal film.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 200
    edited October 9

    A University of Oxford college banned Christian Union representatives from attending its freshers’ fair over concerns at the “potential for harm to freshers”.

    Balliol Christian Union (CU) was told the college’s student body, the JCR, wanted the freshers’ fair to be a “secular space”, according to Oxford’s student newspaper Cherwell.

    Eventually the CU was told that a single multi-faith stall would be allowed to display leaflets, though no representatives would be allowed to staff it, according to leaked emails seen by the paper. Balliol CU boycotted this option.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/09/anger-as-oxford-college-bans-christian-group-from-freshers-fair?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    According to the paper, he added: “Christianity’s influence on many marginalised communities has been damaging in its methods of conversion and rules of practice, and is still used in many places as an excuse for homophobia and certain forms of neo-colonialism.”

    I bet he wouldn't say that about certain other faiths...
    Exactly.

    No of Christian nations where gay men are subject to the death penalty - zero.

    No of nations where a certain other religion is a majority where gay men are subject to the death penalty - 11.

    According to a recent C4 poll published in the Guardian proportion of Christians in the UK who think homosexuality should be made illegal 5 per cent

    Proportion of adherents of another faith in the UK who think homosexuality should be illegal - 52 per cent.

    i don't deny Christianity has created issues for gay men over the centuries - but surely all religions should be treated equally.
  • SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.

    The turmoil in the Tory party, however, could indeed steer us onto the rocks.

    That's what I mean, the Tory party having one its episodes over Brexit is what worries me the most.

    You've got the likes of JRM and Bill Cash unhappy tonight with the pragmatic approach.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,018

    A University of Oxford college banned Christian Union representatives from attending its freshers’ fair over concerns at the “potential for harm to freshers”.

    Balliol Christian Union (CU) was told the college’s student body, the JCR, wanted the freshers’ fair to be a “secular space”, according to Oxford’s student newspaper Cherwell.

    Eventually the CU was told that a single multi-faith stall would be allowed to display leaflets, though no representatives would be allowed to staff it, according to leaked emails seen by the paper. Balliol CU boycotted this option.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/09/anger-as-oxford-college-bans-christian-group-from-freshers-fair?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    According to the paper, he added: “Christianity’s influence on many marginalised communities has been damaging in its methods of conversion and rules of practice, and is still used in many places as an excuse for homophobia and certain forms of neo-colonialism.”

    I bet he wouldn't say that about certain other faiths...
    Considering no "certain other faiths" had a stall either what makes you say that?

    If the CU was the only faith prevented from having a stall you may have had a point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People were warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck, they still voted for it.
    Maybe calm down, just a little bit.

    It's been very tetchy here today. I reacted, and then overreacted. I include myself in that. So, there: I'm sorry. My bad.

    But, it would be nice if we could just "talk" on here without telling each other to go f*ck ourselves, or cheering on a clusterf*ck, or resigning ourselves to a clusterf*ck, or embracing a clusterf*ck, or somehow wanting a clusterf*ck to f*ck over those we really want to just get f*cked.

    It's not that bad.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 779
    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.

    The turmoil in the Tory party, however, could indeed steer us onto the rocks.

    Yup. After thinking long and hard about it - time and time again - pretty much every time I visit this site I think, I still wouldn't change my vote.

    Brexit was a binary option. Either a) carry on, everything's fine, or b) pull the emergency cord and sort the whole mess out - clusterfuck or not, at least now it's forcing us to confront the societal and economic issues caused by unchecked immigration, the housing crisis, erosion of democratic accountability, and so on.

    Brexit remains, in my view, the least worst option. The only people who think that Brexit is a "clusterfuck of epic proportions" are the well-to-do and I'm-alright-Jacks who were happy with the status quo, and even happier with the transfer of sovereignty away from the people and towards an unaccountable supranational body that has demonstrated time and time again it doesn't have the UK's best interests at heart.

    Is Brexit going to be bad? Possibly. Quite probably.

    Is the alternative worse? Yes, I believe so.

    Would reversing the decision now, sticking the middle finger up at 52% of the population and telling them that their vote meant nothing, be the worst possible decision of all? Without a doubt.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,303
    edited October 9

    A University of Oxford college banned Christian Union representatives from attending its freshers’ fair over concerns at the “potential for harm to freshers”.

    Balliol Christian Union (CU) was told the college’s student body, the JCR, wanted the freshers’ fair to be a “secular space”, according to Oxford’s student newspaper Cherwell.

    Eventually the CU was told that a single multi-faith stall would be allowed to display leaflets, though no representatives would be allowed to staff it, according to leaked emails seen by the paper. Balliol CU boycotted this option.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/09/anger-as-oxford-college-bans-christian-group-from-freshers-fair?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    According to the paper, he added: “Christianity’s influence on many marginalised communities has been damaging in its methods of conversion and rules of practice, and is still used in many places as an excuse for homophobia and certain forms of neo-colonialism.”

    I bet he wouldn't say that about certain other faiths...
    Considering no "certain other faiths" had a stall either what makes you say that?

    If the CU was the only faith prevented from having a stall you may have had a point.
    The point was the reasoning given. I am equally appalled that no other faith was allowed to have a stall.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,018

    A University of Oxford college banned Christian Union representatives from attending its freshers’ fair over concerns at the “potential for harm to freshers”.

    Balliol Christian Union (CU) was told the college’s student body, the JCR, wanted the freshers’ fair to be a “secular space”, according to Oxford’s student newspaper Cherwell.

    Eventually the CU was told that a single multi-faith stall would be allowed to display leaflets, though no representatives would be allowed to staff it, according to leaked emails seen by the paper. Balliol CU boycotted this option.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/09/anger-as-oxford-college-bans-christian-group-from-freshers-fair?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    According to the paper, he added: “Christianity’s influence on many marginalised communities has been damaging in its methods of conversion and rules of practice, and is still used in many places as an excuse for homophobia and certain forms of neo-colonialism.”

    I bet he wouldn't say that about certain other faiths...
    Considering no "certain other faiths" had a stall either what makes you say that?

    If the CU was the only faith prevented from having a stall you may have had a point.
    The point was the reasoning given. I am equally appalled that no faith was allowed to have a stall.
    The reasoning was controversial but entirely correct. Christianity like certain other faiths is a pox the world would be better off without.

    But its a free country. They should have been allowed a stall.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,389

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People were warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck, they still voted for it.
    They voted to Leave having been told it would be painless, in fact it would be wonderful since we would be able to sell more to all these other countries. We wouldn't have to pay in and could spend the £350million/week on the NHS.
    If as seems likely things don't turn out that way and the best we can hope for is not as good as we had and the worst is very much worse than we had then it seems fair to have another referendum on the result of the negotiations. NOT a re-run of the original referendum but a new one once the options are known.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    edited October 9
    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 200
    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    What would be the question for the second referendum?

    Is it accept the deal or no deal?

    Or is it 23 June 2016 round 2 - and then best of 3 if remain wins?

    Brexit must surely be delivered - it was in Labour and the Tories manifestos. It's merely how surely not if. Because we can't just keep voting until we deliver the 'right' result - what sort of message does that send?
  • I am right in thinking Mrs May has just crossed one of Boris Johnson's red lines and he's supportive of that?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,180
    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.


    Sounds like a plan. We could be back in by 2024.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 1,928
    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Yup.

    Earlier today the excellent @HHemmelig posted an evidence-based summary of why the last steelworks in South Yorkshire will be doomed by a no deal Brexit.

    Needless to say it didn't fit the leaver narrative so was ignored. That's where PB is these days. A Kool aid drinking club.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,398

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.


    Sounds like a plan. We could be back in by 2024.
    To repeat what I posted at the end of the last thread when TSE made the same suggestion.

    Not a chance old chap. This is the same delusion shared by Williamglenn. Once we have left, whether on good or bad terms, antipathy towards the EU will only increase and the EU will continue to centralise whilst antagonising many of its members. Both of these are inevitable and mean we will never rejoin the EU.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,382
    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    I would be very happy with the Single Market but if Labour went into the next GE promising no end to freedom of movement they would crash and burn.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,382

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.


    Sounds like a plan. We could be back in by 2024.
    To repeat what I posted at the end of the last thread when TSE made the same suggestion.

    Not a chance old chap. This is the same delusion shared by Williamglenn. Once we have left, whether on good or bad terms, antipathy towards the EU will only increase and the EU will continue to centralise whilst antagonising many of its members. Both of these are inevitable and mean we will never rejoin the EU.
    Sorry but this deteriminism is probably exactly the same as what Remainers were saying after they won the 1975 referendum. Very little is truly inevitable in politics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Exactly. You can't just "quit" an economic union of 40+ years overnight without any consequences.

    That is, of course, very different from saying you should *never* quit an economic union, nor that there should not be a practical path to ever doing so, if the politics of it become unacceptable to the majority.

    People should be free to sensibly agree or disagree either way.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    To take a second bite at this as well.

    The problem that you have is that the transition period is not a period of continued negotiation. The A50 rules are very clear. All negotiations on the basic relationship between the UK and the EU end in March 2019 unless we get all 27 other member states to agree to an extension and we also want one.

    The transition period which follows that is to provide the soft landing and allow time for new trade arrangements to be put in place. They will not affect the basic relationship between the UK and the EU in terms of the structures and the legal relationships.

    So unless you think the EU is going to agree to an extension (and that the UK will ask for one in the first place which under a Tory Government I think is unlikely) then the backstop for being able to stay in the Single Market or the Customs Union is March 2019.

    .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    If there is a Labour Government in that time, Corbyn will become PM and won't allow the UK to remain in the single market.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 233

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    I would be very happy with the Single Market but if Labour went into the next GE promising no end to freedom of movement they would crash and burn.
    Labour will go into the next election promising to leave the Single Market, winking and nodding to Remainers that they won't really. If they win, they will leave it like the Hard Brexiteers the leadership always have been. It gets in the way of True Socialism.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.


    Sounds like a plan. We could be back in by 2024.
    To repeat what I posted at the end of the last thread when TSE made the same suggestion.

    Not a chance old chap. This is the same delusion shared by Williamglenn. Once we have left, whether on good or bad terms, antipathy towards the EU will only increase and the EU will continue to centralise whilst antagonising many of its members. Both of these are inevitable and mean we will never rejoin the EU.
    Sorry but this deteriminism is probably exactly the same as what Remainers were saying after they won the 1975 referendum. Very little is truly inevitable in politics.
    It is based on observation of the European Project over many years and their reaction to the UK leaving. They are already accelerating closer union and senior officials are already saying they want an end to the foot dragging over the Eurozone. The EU are incapable of not antagonising member states. It is what they do.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 779

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.


    Sounds like a plan. We could be back in by 2024.
    Has anyone on this website changed their mind in a year of arguing over it?

    Have the polls shifted at all, nationally, beyond the margin of error?

    If we re-ran the referendum and it split 48/52 to Remain this time, what would happen?

    If the scenes in Catalonia last week were repeated in Brexit towns across the country, could we still call ourselves a democracy?

    If homegrown separatists began marching in the streets, then spilling out into violence, would they be justified? Having had their vote at the ballot box effectively ignored and overruled? If, heaven forbid, that spilled over into a domestic bombing campaign, what then? Where do you draw the line?

    TSE is right. For better or worse, democracy has to be respected. The alternatives are too awful to bear.

    We do things differently in this country. It's what makes us British - heck, it's what makes me proud to be British. Democracy comes first. If the EU had the same attitude, we wouldn't be in this sorry mess in the first place.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,382

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    kyf_100 said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    Yup. After thinking long and hard about it - time and time again - pretty much every time I visit this site I think, I still wouldn't change my vote.

    Brexit was a binary option. Either a) carry on, everything's fine, or b) pull the emergency cord and sort the whole mess out - clusterfuck or not, at least now it's forcing us to confront the societal and economic issues caused by unchecked immigration, the housing crisis, erosion of democratic accountability, and so on.

    Brexit remains, in my view, the least worst option. The only people who think that Brexit is a "clusterfuck of epic proportions" are the well-to-do and I'm-alright-Jacks who were happy with the status quo, and even happier with the transfer of sovereignty away from the people and towards an unaccountable supranational body that has demonstrated time and time again it doesn't have the UK's best interests at heart.

    Is Brexit going to be bad? Possibly. Quite probably.

    Is the alternative worse? Yes, I believe so.

    Would reversing the decision now, sticking the middle finger up at 52% of the population and telling them that their vote meant nothing, be the worst possible decision of all? Without a doubt.
    Yes. I agree with all of this.

    I think the EU showed itself to not be meaningfully reformable and, with all past experience of how it had both operated and developed, and its future path of federal intent, was no longer right geopolitical model for the UK.

    What I got wrong is that I grossly underestimated how bitter it would get on both sides. I thought the vast majority of people really didn't give much of a toss about the EU, and would shrug their shoulders and accept it without much fuss if we did vote to Leave.

    I was wrong. Perhaps that was always going to be the case in a close vote that chose to take the nuclear option, but I was still wrong. I admit, and accept that. I also got wrong just how threatened the EU would feel by Brexit, and how defensively it would react, and I regret some of the actions of the UK Government from c.Sept 2016 to May 2017 when it all got a bit too "Up Yours, Delors".

    But, we are where we are. And it must be seen through.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
    Guys. Don't make my mistake and start being very rude to each other.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,382

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
    Guys. Don't make my mistake and start being very rude to each other.
    I said the word bless. He said 'lack of understanding'. You said c***sucker.

    I think we've got some way to go before we get to that level.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
    That is not what I said. One thing you must have learned over many years of seeing the EU at work is that the Treaties are everything. They form the basis of all the rulings of the ECJ and as international treaties cannot simply be changed at will without the agreement of every member state.

    If we were to get to March 2019 and there has been no agreement then the only way it is possible for negotiations on the nature of our Leaving and our future relationship with the EU to continue is for all 28 members including the UK to agree to extend the negotiations. If this does not happen then we leave without agreement. The extra 2 year transition period is not there to allow the negotiations on our leaving to continue. We will already have left.

    So what the EU wants is immaterial unless every single government including the UK agree to continue negotiations.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,106
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
    Guys. Don't make my mistake and start being very rude to each other.
    I said the word bless. He said 'lack of understanding'. You said c***sucker.

    I think we've got some way to go before we get to that level.
    Don't have a go at me, mate.

    I've stepped in on your behalf in the past when you and TSE were hurling abuse at each other, so a little less of the high ground please.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
    Guys. Don't make my mistake and start being very rude to each other.
    I said the word bless. He said 'lack of understanding'. You said c***sucker.

    I think we've got some way to go before we get to that level.
    I have not taken offence and I hope today have not given any.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,398
    edited October 9
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
    They'd bite our hand off. And who says it's Jezza. Time marches on. No Jezza = hugely increased Lab majority (vs the one Jezza would have won).

    Starmer or La Thornberry would keep us in the SM perhaps indeed very likely in the EU also. And treaty schmeaty they'd love us back in as you say.

    Is what JRM fears.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,333

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.
    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?
    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.
    People were warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck, they still voted for it.
    But the people who warned them were Cameron and Osborne, and they were both thoroughly discredited politicians. And still are. As I am sure you would be the first to agree.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,382

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Got to say I really can't get worked up about the ECJ control during the 2 year transition period. If that is what it takes to get agreement so we can finally leave then I can live with it. It still means we are out by 2021 which is far better than I expected less than 2 years ago.

    Four more years of possible events which could presage a GE, a Labour government, and staying in the single market. No wonder JRM is panicking.
    This. Brexiteers must not assume that they have the luxury of 5-10 years to take us out in a leisurely fashion. It also wouldn't be politically viable.

    This is where people like Richard North demonstrate their peerless understanding of the EU but pitiful grasp of politics in a democracy.
    Whereas, for the reasons I have just given in my reply to Topping, you demonstrate a serious lack of understanding of the basic treaty requirements.
    Bless. You really think the EU would reject making our membership of the single market permanent in exchange for continuing dollops of cash forever?
    Guys. Don't make my mistake and start being very rude to each other.
    I said the word bless. He said 'lack of understanding'. You said c***sucker.

    I think we've got some way to go before we get to that level.
    I have not taken offence and I hope today have not given any.
    You most certainly have not :smile:

    I really want you to be right but I'm concerned. I don't think maximum risk is now, but rather 2019-21 where we are still following Brussels' rules but are officially out. It would be very easy to be slipped back into to full membership by making that condition permanent IF a British government wanted it and made the necessary offer.

    Of course, if we become a third country to the EEA in March 2019 then we're out for good. I agree there would be no realistic prospect of us returning.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 200
    edited October 9
    PClipp said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.
    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?
    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.
    People were warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck, they still voted for it.
    But the people who warned them were Cameron and Osborne, and they were both thoroughly discredited politicians. And still are. As I am sure you would be the first to agree.
    They were both discredited by the referendum - they were ascendant before it!

    A lot of people think Corbyn as PM and McDonnell in No 11 will crash the economy.

    Should we cancel the election result if Labour gets a majority next time and hold another election and another one until Voters elect a Tory majority government - because a lot of people think Corbyn means economic collapse, a run on the pound, a collapse in house prices, rising interest rates and rising inflation?

    If that is what the people voted for then they should get what they voted for - for better or worse! Same with Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    edited October 9
    RoyalBlue said:

    I really want you to be right but I'm concerned. I don't think maximum risk is now, but rather 2019-21 where we are still following Brussels' rules but are officially out. It would be very easy to be slipped back into to full membership by making that condition permanent IF a British government wanted it and made the necessary offer.

    If we're outside the EU in a holding pen, it would also be the perfect context in which to hold another Scottish independence referendum, and the EU could roll out the red carpet for them.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,382

    RoyalBlue said:

    I really want you to be right but I'm concerned. I don't think maximum risk is now, but rather 2019-21 where we are still following Brussels' rules but are officially out. It would be very easy to be slipped back into to full membership by making that condition permanent IF a British government wanted it and made the necessary offer.

    If we're outside the EU in a holding pen, it would also be the perfect context in which to hold another Scottish independence referendum, and the EU could roll out the red carpet for them.
    I think that's one wish too far :wink:
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,180

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.


    Sounds like a plan. We could be back in by 2024.
    To repeat what I posted at the end of the last thread when TSE made the same suggestion.

    Not a chance old chap. This is the same delusion shared by Williamglenn. Once we have left, whether on good or bad terms, antipathy towards the EU will only increase and the EU will continue to centralise whilst antagonising many of its members. Both of these are inevitable and mean we will never rejoin the EU.
    Sorry but this deteriminism is probably exactly the same as what Remainers were saying after they won the 1975 referendum. Very little is truly inevitable in politics.
    It is based on observation of the European Project over many years and their reaction to the UK leaving. They are already accelerating closer union and senior officials are already saying they want an end to the foot dragging over the Eurozone. The EU are incapable of not antagonising member states. It is what they do.
    I don't agree that's what they do, but if it were you can't assume it would continue. Both Britain and Europe are bound to change. A few years of a weak pound up against a strong Euro might make the prospect of joining the Euro a lot more attractive for example. And if we get a dose of unemployment freedom of movement might look a lot more inviting. There might be some nostalgia for the days of Auf Wiedersehen Pet.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412

    I am right in thinking Mrs May has just crossed one of Boris Johnson's red lines and he's supportive of that?

    Yes
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049

    I am right in thinking Mrs May has just crossed one of Boris Johnson's red lines and he's supportive of that?

    He's obviously read Marx...

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,303
    Fake News....

    Dramatic Grenfell baby story probably never happened
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41550836
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450

    I don't agree that's what they do, but if it were you can't assume it would continue. Both Britain and Europe are bound to change. A few years of a weak pound up against a strong Euro might make the prospect of joining the Euro a lot more attractive for example. And if we get a dose of unemployment freedom of movement might look a lot more inviting. There might be some nostalgia for the days of Auf Wiedersehen Pet.

    You show a profound lack of understanding of why people object to Euro membership. It is not based on relative strength but on the feeling that by surrendering ones currency one is surrendering control. It is exactly this sort of misreading of public opinion by Europhiles that led to the Brexit win in the first place.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    RoyalBlue said:


    You most certainly have not :smile:

    I really want you to be right but I'm concerned. I don't think maximum risk is now, but rather 2019-21 where we are still following Brussels' rules but are officially out. It would be very easy to be slipped back into to full membership by making that condition permanent IF a British government wanted it and made the necessary offer.

    Of course, if we become a third country to the EEA in March 2019 then we're out for good. I agree there would be no realistic prospect of us returning.

    To 'slip back' into full membership is again not possible. Once we are out a return would require a new treaty with the agreement of all 27 countries. These relationships are all bound by treaty and that is not something that can be easily circumvented.

    One of the unfortunate misconceptions about the ECJ is that they are considered to be a 'political court' making decisions based on politics rather than law. This is not the case. Their remit is to interpret law based primarily on the existing treaties. No matter how attractive the politics might be they will not just sit by and see the treaties ignored either to allow us to stay in or to get us back in once we have left.

    This is before we even start to approach the question of accession terms such as Schengen and Euro membership.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,997
    As predicted, the Austrian burkha ban's going well...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41559196

    Personally, I don't find this very finny. They're plumbing the depths, but I guess someone's having a whale of a time.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450

    As predicted, the Austrian burkha ban's going well...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41559196

    Personally, I don't find this very finny. They're plumbing the depths, but I guess someone's having a whale of a time.

    Bloody ridiculous law.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,401

    As predicted, the Austrian burkha ban's going well...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41559196

    Personally, I don't find this very finny. They're plumbing the depths, but I guess someone's having a whale of a time.

    No porpoise whatsoever!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,364

    I don't agree that's what they do, but if it were you can't assume it would continue. Both Britain and Europe are bound to change. A few years of a weak pound up against a strong Euro might make the prospect of joining the Euro a lot more attractive for example. And if we get a dose of unemployment freedom of movement might look a lot more inviting. There might be some nostalgia for the days of Auf Wiedersehen Pet.

    You show a profound lack of understanding of why people object to Euro membership. It is not based on relative strength but on the feeling that by surrendering ones currency one is surrendering control. It is exactly this sort of misreading of public opinion by Europhiles that led to the Brexit win in the first place.
    Of course, if Ethereum scales in the way that its founders say it will, then the days of government controlled currencies may be numbered. We may be returning to the world pre about 1800, where the idea that the government could manipulate the value of the currency for its own narrow political ends would be regarded as absurd.

    The Euro may have arrived just in time to go extinct.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't agree that's what they do, but if it were you can't assume it would continue. Both Britain and Europe are bound to change. A few years of a weak pound up against a strong Euro might make the prospect of joining the Euro a lot more attractive for example. And if we get a dose of unemployment freedom of movement might look a lot more inviting. There might be some nostalgia for the days of Auf Wiedersehen Pet.

    You show a profound lack of understanding of why people object to Euro membership. It is not based on relative strength but on the feeling that by surrendering ones currency one is surrendering control. It is exactly this sort of misreading of public opinion by Europhiles that led to the Brexit win in the first place.
    Of course, if Ethereum scales in the way that its founders say it will, then the days of government controlled currencies may be numbered. We may be returning to the world pre about 1800, where the idea that the government could manipulate the value of the currency for its own narrow political ends would be regarded as absurd.

    The Euro may have arrived just in time to go extinct.

    As predicted, the Austrian burkha ban's going well...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41559196

    Personally, I don't find this very finny. They're plumbing the depths, but I guess someone's having a whale of a time.

    Sadly I notice that Denmark are expected to go the same way shortly as well. The majority of parties in the Parliament apparently support such a ban.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,842
    I am just popping in to say hello and also that I have never seen any Bladerunner film. Or any other sci-fi movie. Or Star Wars.

    I know, I know: I haven’t lived. What can I be thinking? What have I been doing? Well, I can assure you I have been doing lots of lovely things.

    For instance:

    I did see ET in an open air cinema in Venice. That was lovely. And my rather gorgeous Italian date had tears in his eyes at the end, which made him even more irresistible.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 107

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.


    Sounds like a plan. We could be back in by 2024.
    To repeat what I posted at the end of the last thread when TSE made the same suggestion.

    Not a chance old chap. This is the same delusion shared by Williamglenn. Once we have left, whether on good or bad terms, antipathy towards the EU will only increase and the EU will continue to centralise whilst antagonising many of its members. Both of these are inevitable and mean we will never rejoin the EU.
    Quite correct. Even supposing no increased antagonism, Remain would be up against it. Try running the referendum again with Leave having the benefit of the status quo bias, the endowment effect, loss aversion in a fairly unknowable-outcome situation, the ambiguity effect, the mere exposure effect, and all those other irrational cognitive bias reasons people had for voting Remain in 2016.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412
    Cyclefree said:

    I am just popping in to say hello and also that I have never seen any Bladerunner film. Or any other sci-fi movie. Or Star Wars.

    I thought you were a Lib Dem, but that's just Weird!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,829

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck.
    Clusterfuck, what clusterfuck?

    I agree (and have said on here) that the economic stats for 2017 are not encouraging, but we still have modest growth, record employment, manufacturing is vigorous, the £ has stabilised (albeit devalued).

    I expect a recession soon, but a recession was on the cards anyway. It's been ten years since the last.

    A clusterfuck is not guaranteed. We just need to accept leaving the EU is bloody hard and join EEA or EFTA for 5-10 years to minimise the damage, then have another think.

    The turmoil in the Tory party, however, could indeed steer us onto the rocks.

    That's what I mean, the Tory party having one its episodes over Brexit is what worries me the most.

    You've got the likes of JRM and Bill Cash unhappy tonight with the pragmatic approach.
    Ultras and Constitutionalists are always a PITA.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,829

    Danny565 said:

    Having been dead-against the idea, and arguing with some PBers "on my side" about it over the past 15 months, I have to say now that I do want a second referendum. And this time I wouldn't be seriously considering voting Leave for ages like I did last time.

    Brexit is turning into a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

    Then what happens if Remain wins that? Do we have a third referendum?

    Democracy demands the Brexit result be honoured.

    People were warned Brexit would be a clusterfeck, they still voted for it.
    Maybe calm down, just a little bit.

    It's been very tetchy here today. I reacted, and then overreacted. I include myself in that. So, there: I'm sorry. My bad.

    But, it would be nice if we could just "talk" on here without telling each other to go f*ck ourselves, or cheering on a clusterf*ck, or resigning ourselves to a clusterf*ck, or embracing a clusterf*ck, or somehow wanting a clusterf*ck to f*ck over those we really want to just get f*cked.

    It's not that bad.
    You are Richard Mottram and I claim my £5
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,501
    "Londoners, stop being so rude and unfriendly, says think tank: call for a 'civility code' to help make London a nicer place to live"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/londoners-stop-being-so-rude-and-unfriendly-says-think-tank-call-for-a-civility-code-to-help-make-a3653656.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    Cyclefree said:

    I am just popping in to say hello and also that I have never seen any Bladerunner film. Or any other sci-fi movie. Or Star Wars.

    I know, I know: I haven’t lived. What can I be thinking? What have I been doing? Well, I can assure you I have been doing lots of lovely things.

    For instance:

    I did see ET in an open air cinema in Venice. That was lovely. And my rather gorgeous Italian date had tears in his eyes at the end, which made him even more irresistible.

    Apparently one of the best cinematic experiences to be had this year is in Manchester where various films are being shown with live orchestral accompaniment in place of the scores. A friend recently went to see La La Land done in this way. Not a film he would otherwise have watched but apparently transformed by the live score.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,018

    What I got wrong is that I grossly underestimated how bitter it would get on both sides. I thought the vast majority of people really didn't give much of a toss about the EU, and would shrug their shoulders and accept it without much fuss if we did vote to Leave.

    I was wrong. Perhaps that was always going to be the case in a close vote that chose to take the nuclear option, but I was still wrong. I admit, and accept that.

    No you weren't.

    The vast majority of people have accepted it. The issue now is that the small vocal minority now exists on both sides of the divide. Whereas previously only the sceptics were the angry vocal majority, there is now an angry vocal majority on the Remain side too.

    Both angry vocal minorities are just that though. ~5% on either side (if that) are angry and loud, ~90% of the country has moved on.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    Cyclefree said:

    I am just popping in to say hello and also that I have never seen any Bladerunner film. Or any other sci-fi movie. Or Star Wars.

    I know, I know: I haven’t lived. What can I be thinking? What have I been doing? Well, I can assure you I have been doing lots of lovely things.

    For instance:

    I did see ET in an open air cinema in Venice. That was lovely. And my rather gorgeous Italian date had tears in his eyes at the end, which made him even more irresistible.

    There is plenty of bad SciFi, but the best films are not just special effects and dodgy costumes. They are a genre to explore themes and ideas without the constraints of earthly mundanity.

    I particularly like the orginal "Invasion of the Bodysnatchers", for example as an exploration of cold war paranoia.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,782
    Noticed that Iceland qualified for World Cup, imagine a rematch against England next summer.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450

    Cyclefree said:

    I am just popping in to say hello and also that I have never seen any Bladerunner film. Or any other sci-fi movie. Or Star Wars.

    I know, I know: I haven’t lived. What can I be thinking? What have I been doing? Well, I can assure you I have been doing lots of lovely things.

    For instance:

    I did see ET in an open air cinema in Venice. That was lovely. And my rather gorgeous Italian date had tears in his eyes at the end, which made him even more irresistible.

    There is plenty of bad SciFi, but the best films are not just special effects and dodgy costumes. They are a genre to explore themes and ideas without the constraints of earthly mundanity.

    I particularly like the orginal "Invasion of the Bodysnatchers", for example as an exploration of cold war paranoia.
    That is what impresses me so much about both Bladerunner films. Whilst of course using Sci-Fi as the medium, in fact both films are actually about what it means to be human, how we define humanity and what part memory, empathy and the desire to exist play in being human. They are so much more than just 'Sci-Fi' films.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    dr_spyn said:

    Noticed that Iceland qualified for World Cup, imagine a rematch against England next summer.

    I am sure Scotland will be getting right behind their southern neighbours in that match. :)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,154
    "Braced for a no deal bexit"
    At last.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,392
    Interestingly, if Scotland had beaten Slovenia to come 2nd in their group and make the play-offs, Ireland would now be the worst 2nd place team and have gone out despite winning tonight.

    (Assuming Greece beat Gibraltar tomorrow to confirm their 2nd place).
  • AndyJS said:

    "Londoners, stop being so rude and unfriendly, says think tank: call for a 'civility code' to help make London a nicer place to live"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/londoners-stop-being-so-rude-and-unfriendly-says-think-tank-call-for-a-civility-code-to-help-make-a3653656.html

    London, what a godforsaken shithole. The sooner they get independence, the better.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375

    dr_spyn said:

    Noticed that Iceland qualified for World Cup, imagine a rematch against England next summer.

    I am sure Scotland will be getting right behind their southern neighbours in that match. :)
    Well I would be but I accept that might be a minority view.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,401
    geoffw said:

    "Braced for a no deal bexit"
    At last.

    Just to clear up last night's fun: "Brexitter" is a play on Soft Cell's "Bedsitter".
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364

    Cyclefree said:

    I am just popping in to say hello and also that I have never seen any Bladerunner film. Or any other sci-fi movie. Or Star Wars.

    I know, I know: I haven’t lived. What can I be thinking? What have I been doing? Well, I can assure you I have been doing lots of lovely things.

    For instance:

    I did see ET in an open air cinema in Venice. That was lovely. And my rather gorgeous Italian date had tears in his eyes at the end, which made him even more irresistible.

    There is plenty of bad SciFi, but the best films are not just special effects and dodgy costumes. They are a genre to explore themes and ideas without the constraints of earthly mundanity.

    I particularly like the orginal "Invasion of the Bodysnatchers", for example as an exploration of cold war paranoia.
    That is what impresses me so much about both Bladerunner films. Whilst of course using Sci-Fi as the medium, in fact both films are actually about what it means to be human, how we define humanity and what part memory, empathy and the desire to exist play in being human. They are so much more than just 'Sci-Fi' films.
    I never quite got to see the original Bladerunner, probably because as a very busy junior doctor I didnt see any movies or buy any new music for about 5 years.

    I approach the new film with an open mind. I may struggle to get Mrs Fox to go, but Fox jr is probably game.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412


    Lucky they are not genetically disadvantaged...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    edited October 9

    Cyclefree said:

    I am just popping in to say hello and also that I have never seen any Bladerunner film. Or any other sci-fi movie. Or Star Wars.

    I know, I know: I haven’t lived. What can I be thinking? What have I been doing? Well, I can assure you I have been doing lots of lovely things.

    For instance:

    I did see ET in an open air cinema in Venice. That was lovely. And my rather gorgeous Italian date had tears in his eyes at the end, which made him even more irresistible.

    Apparently one of the best cinematic experiences to be had this year is in Manchester where various films are being shown with live orchestral accompaniment in place of the scores. A friend recently went to see La La Land done in this way. Not a film he would otherwise have watched but apparently transformed by the live score.
    My daughter got her mum 2 tickets for Love Actually in Edinburgh for her birthday/ Christmas. It's one of her favourite films. I fear I may be incredibly busy that night and my daughter is in Holland. Someone is going to be taking one for the team.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    geoffw said:

    "Braced for a no deal bexit"
    At last.

    Quite. Being ready for this is the only way a deal will ever be possible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    Scott_P said:



    Lucky they are not genetically disadvantaged...

    The bizarre thing about that comment is that Strachan himself was one of our most skilled and important players despite being something short of a colossus.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 779

    What I got wrong is that I grossly underestimated how bitter it would get on both sides. I thought the vast majority of people really didn't give much of a toss about the EU, and would shrug their shoulders and accept it without much fuss if we did vote to Leave.

    I was wrong. Perhaps that was always going to be the case in a close vote that chose to take the nuclear option, but I was still wrong. I admit, and accept that.

    No you weren't.

    The vast majority of people have accepted it. The issue now is that the small vocal minority now exists on both sides of the divide. Whereas previously only the sceptics were the angry vocal majority, there is now an angry vocal majority on the Remain side too.

    Both angry vocal minorities are just that though. ~5% on either side (if that) are angry and loud, ~90% of the country has moved on.
    Yes, I think this is probably it - most of the country has moved on and just wants the government of the day to get on with making the best of it.

    What has taken me aback over the year is the sheer ferocity of the loyalty to the EU shown by the ultras. I didn't know they existed. I didn't know anyone could feel love for, let alone allegiance to, a bureacracy I regard as nothing more than meddlesome.

    But while I voted leave, I've never seen msyelf as a headbanger. Had the vote gone the other way, I would have shrugged my shoulders, gone 'ah, that's democracy, at least I had my say' and gone on to think of other things.

    Had we continued to remain in the EU, I would have simply regarded it in the same way as a distant villager in Dykanka might have viewed the court of the Russian Tsar - distant, dictatorial and bureaucratic, but an inevitible part of life, a burden to bear. But the idea that one might feel love and loyalty to these distant and alien overlords is still utterly alien to me.

    The sheer strength of feeling for the EU by the ultras on the other side has surprised me. The last year has been something of an eye opener, to put it mildly.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,972
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    "Braced for a no deal bexit"
    At last.

    Quite. Being ready for this is the only way a deal will ever be possible.
    Whether a deal is possible or not is unclear (my take is that a ~30% chance that it's not, but who knows?). Either way - even if it's only a 5% chance that it's not - we need to be ready for it.
  • glwglw Posts: 3,872
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    "Braced for a no deal bexit"
    At last.

    Quite. Being ready for this is the only way a deal will ever be possible.
    Frankly we should have started with a no deal strategy, after all that's the most disruptive outcome we need the most time to prepare for, and negotiated to work back from there. We've been negotiating back to front from the start.

    Still at least somebody appears to have woken up and realised that No Deal is becoming more likely by the hour.

    The next step is to cut short the negotiations if we can't make some progress by dates of our choosing, otherwise the EU will try to take it to the wire. 1 year before exit looks sensible to me, if we haven't made real progress by next spring announce that the talks are done, and prepare for hard Brexit in 2019.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,972
    edited October 9
    kyf_100 said:

    The sheer strength of feeling for the EU by the ultras on the other side has surprised me. The last year has been something of an eye opener, to put it mildly.

    Fair enough, but what about the sheer headbanging lunacy of those who can't accept a few months of continued ECJ oversight, the practical effect of which is the square root of b'all, but which would help a lot in smoothing the feathers of our EU friends as regards the transition?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,392
    edited October 9
    Yes, most of the country has moved on.

    But what the comments on this site show is that many people closely interested in politics haven't moved on.

    Literally every single day, the vast majority of comments on every thread consist of both Brexit and Remain supporters going on and on and on and on regurgitating the same old points over and over and over and over again.
  • glwglw Posts: 3,872
    edited October 9
    MikeL said:

    Yes, most of the country has moved on.

    But what the comments on this site show is that many people closely interested in politics haven't moved on.

    Literally every single day, the vast majority of comments on every thread consist of both Brexit and Remain supporters going on and on and on and on regurgitating the same old points over and over and over and over again.

    When Rocket Man carries out an atmospheric nuclear test (which non-crazy people seem to think is on the cards) there will be people on here talking about what it means for Brexit.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 779

    kyf_100 said:

    The sheer strength of feeling for the EU by the ultras on the other side has surprised me. The last year has been something of an eye opener, to put it mildly.

    Fair enough, but what about the sheer headbanging lunacy of those who can't accept a few months of continued ECJ oversight, the practical effect of which is the square root of b'all, but which would help a lot in smoothing the feathers of our EU friends as regards the transition?
    Oh, I agree entirely. My view is if it took us 40 years to entangle ourselves in this mess, it may well take us 40 years to disentangle ourselves.

    The good news for me is, whatever happens, the British people have given a firm 'non' to further integration - whether in the form of the single currency, an EU army, tax harmonisation, or any of the other things that might have been on the cards.

    Even if we head for Brexit In Name Only it at least puts a halt on any further integration and demands a new democratic mandate for any further surrender of sovereignty. It is a halt to the salami slice tactics of the last thirty or more years.

    I'm sure Williamglenn will be along any moment now to tell us how fantastic this is, because now the dispirited British people will surely vote in favour of the Euro and the Great Project once we've been broken on the wheel...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,412
    MikeL said:

    Yes, most of the country has moved on.

    But what the comments on this site show is that many people closely interested in politics haven't moved on.

    Politics hasn't moved on.

    Brexit is the only game in town. The party conferences didn't change the narrative. The zombie cabinet is hostage to Brexit. The economy is in a Brexit holding pattern.

    What else should we be talking about?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    edited October 9

    kyf_100 said:

    The sheer strength of feeling for the EU by the ultras on the other side has surprised me. The last year has been something of an eye opener, to put it mildly.

    Fair enough, but what about the sheer headbanging lunacy of those who can't accept a few months of continued ECJ oversight, the practical effect of which is the square root of b'all, but which would help a lot in smoothing the feathers of our EU friends as regards the transition?
    Agree entirely.

    Edit and I am normally considered a headbanger :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,049
    kyf_100 said:

    What I got wrong is that I grossly underestimated how bitter it would get on both sides. I thought the vast majority of people really didn't give much of a toss about the EU, and would shrug their shoulders and accept it without much fuss if we did vote to Leave.

    I was wrong. Perhaps that was always going to be the case in a close vote that chose to take the nuclear option, but I was still wrong. I admit, and accept that.

    No you weren't.

    The vast majority of people have accepted it. The issue now is that the small vocal minority now exists on both sides of the divide. Whereas previously only the sceptics were the angry vocal majority, there is now an angry vocal majority on the Remain side too.

    Both angry vocal minorities are just that though. ~5% on either side (if that) are angry and loud, ~90% of the country has moved on.
    Yes, I think this is probably it - most of the country has moved on and just wants the government of the day to get on with making the best of it.

    What has taken me aback over the year is the sheer ferocity of the loyalty to the EU shown by the ultras. I didn't know they existed. I didn't know anyone could feel love for, let alone allegiance to, a bureacracy I regard as nothing more than meddlesome.

    But while I voted leave, I've never seen msyelf as a headbanger. Had the vote gone the other way, I would have shrugged my shoulders, gone 'ah, that's democracy, at least I had my say' and gone on to think of other things.

    Had we continued to remain in the EU, I would have simply regarded it in the same way as a distant villager in Dykanka might have viewed the court of the Russian Tsar - distant, dictatorial and bureaucratic, but an inevitible part of life, a burden to bear. But the idea that one might feel love and loyalty to these distant and alien overlords is still utterly alien to me.

    The sheer strength of feeling for the EU by the ultras on the other side has surprised me. The last year has been something of an eye opener, to put it mildly.
    I wouldn't class myself as an ultra (it's a term new to me in this context) but I do feel the benefits of the EU vastly outweighed the drawbacks.

    I don't expect committed Leavers to understand this but I like the idea of nations cooperating rather than fighting (which was the history of Europe pre-EU); I like the fact that I can travel freely, that all EU countries are expected to meet the same standards (as a wheelchair user for the past 35 years I've seen the practical side of that). I like it that the richer EU regions support the poorer regions. I think the EU has been an instrument for promoting and protecting democracy in Greece, Spain, Portugal (none of which were democracies when we joined the EEC) and the ex-Iron Curtain countries.

    I could go on...
This discussion has been closed.