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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coming back to EU – can A50 be revoked?

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited October 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coming back to EU – can A50 be revoked?

Picture: The justices of the CJEU

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,364
    Good piece, Alistair.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,179
    Can we send two short people to the land of Mordor and cast Article 50 into the Crack of Doom?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    rcs1000 said:

    Good piece, Alistair.

    +1
  • PongPong Posts: 4,564
    edited October 13
    I think it would take a significant - and negative - external event to make revocation palatable/desirable for those who currently hold vetos (the tory right, eurofederalists).

    Like Russia having a crack at the Baltics. Or a particularly nasty NK situation. Or a cyberwar seriously screwing up both the £+€ economies.

    Something major enough to knock brexit off the agenda.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    With a bit of luck (ha!) some of the journalists who lurk will read Mr Meeks’ article, absorb and leave better informed.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,364
    Pong said:

    I think it would take a significant external event to make revocation palatable/desirable for those who currently hold vetos (the tory right, eurofederalists).

    Like Russia having a crack at the Baltics. Or a particularly nasty NK situation. Or a cyberwar seriously screwing up both the £+€ economies.

    I think most of those things would result in postponement, rather than revocation. If Russia invaded Estonia*, for example, I would reckon the UK and the EU would have bigger things to worry about than making sure everything was complete by March 2019.

    * I don't actually think this very likely.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    Pong said:

    Like Russia having a crack at the Baltics

    Surely that’s impossible as the EU guarantees peace in Europe?
  • Pong said:

    Like Russia having a crack at the Baltics

    Surely that’s impossible as the EU guarantees peace in Europe?
    Guarantees peace between member states...

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849

    Pong said:

    Like Russia having a crack at the Baltics

    Surely that’s impossible as the EU guarantees peace in Europe?
    Guarantees peace between member states...

    You mean there’s more to Europe than the European Union? Huge if true.....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 938

    Can we send two short people to the land of Mordor and cast Article 50 into the Crack of Doom?

    Davidson and Bercow.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 894
    Having asked an EU lawyer based in Brussels the very same question some time ago, I got the opposite answer.
    His view was that Lisbon was drafted wth the understanding that the Vienna conversion would apply to it, so that it's drafting might be more concise.

    Jolyon Maugham was I think trying to prove this, but the case couldn't be brought because the question was hypothetical, and courts don't answer hypothetical questions, or certainly the ECJ doesn't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    Dura_Ace said:

    Can we send two short people to the land of Mordor and cast Article 50 into the Crack of Doom?

    Davidson and Bercow.
    With Juncker as Ted Sandyman?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 82
    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736
    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,179
    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849
    For those who like a little conspiracy theory with their cornflakes:

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/forget-catalonia-flanders-is-the-real-test-case-of-eu-separatism/5612981/amp

    The author’s history is ok - it’s when he gets to the “EU’s liberal globalist elite” he starts to lose me. FWIW I think the EU hierarchy has enough on its plate dealing with nation states - let alone wishing itself myriad statelets...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    wishful thinking

    the UK cannot go back to where it was in May 2016

    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column.

    Albion isnt called perfidious for nothing

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    Albion isnt called perfidious for nothing
    And as Nassar observed of the saying that “The sun never sets on the British Empire” - “Because god does not trust the British in the dark”.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column
    Worse, we are apostates....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,179

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    wishful thinking

    the UK cannot go back to where it was in May 2016

    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column.

    Albion isnt called perfidious for nothing

    Hardly. We have just fallen in with a few wrong 'uns. When this generation of exceptionally untalented politicians is out of the way we can return to our traditional common sense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,736

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    I'm not thinking the EU itself would object. Quite the reverse, for us to try and leave and fail disastrously would be the biggest fillip to European unity since the Battle of Austerlitz.

    But the Canada deal was stymied by one region, even though the EU was fully in favour. Moreover Mariano Rajoy is still after Gibraltar and has just proven he has the intellectual capacity of a retarded donkey plus an inability to think beyond the next five minutes. To foresee problems in those areas is hardly unrealistic.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    Could the UK unilaterally withdraw A50? There is only one way to find out for sure!

    I could not see a reason for the EU27 to block it though, and it does look after the Gina Miller case that such a decision would have to be made by Parliament. That would be a fun debate to watch.

    Such an act would stop the clock, but also stop negotiations. Far better to apply for a significant extension to the negotiation period. This would be at the discretion of the EU27 of course, but would allow negotiations to continue.

    It's all going a bit Bleak House:

    "Brexit drones on. This scarecrow of a suit has, over the course of time, become so complicated, that no man alive knows what it means. The parties to it understand it least; but it has been observed that no two Chancery lawyers can talk about it for five minutes without coming to a total disagreement as to all the premises. Innumerable children have been born into the cause; innumerable young people have married into it; innumerable old people have died out of it. Scores of persons have deliriously found themselves made parties in Brexit without knowing how or why; whole families have inherited legendary hatreds with the suit. The little plaintiff or defendant, who was promised a new rocking-horse when Brexit should be settled, has grown up, possessed himself of a real horse, and trotted away into the other world. Fair wards of court have faded into mothers and grandmothers; a long procession of Chancellors has come in and gone out."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Good morning, everyone.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,858
    On topic, I agree, on both the decision and the reasoning. It is amazing how many people construct abstruse logic based on imaginative interpretations of ambiguous clauses, while ignoring the clear drafting of those crucial four words of Article 50(3): "shall cease to apply".
  • eekeek Posts: 1,913

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    wishful thinking

    the UK cannot go back to where it was in May 2016

    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column.

    Albion isnt called perfidious for nothing

    Hardly. We have just fallen in with a few wrong 'uns. When this generation of exceptionally untalented politicians is out of the way we can return to our traditional common sense.
    As I've commented on here many times before there are far better things to do nowadays than subject yourself to 24 hour news and continual attacks on social media - and to market yourself enough to be an MP you need to be on social media.

    So if you think this crop of MPs is bad wait 10 years....
  • ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    wishful thinking

    the UK cannot go back to where it was in May 2016

    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column.

    Albion isnt called perfidious for nothing

    Hardly. We have just fallen in with a few wrong 'uns. When this generation of exceptionally untalented politicians is out of the way we can return to our traditional common sense.
    So would that be no Euro, no uncontrolled immigration, no trillion quid of debt and the Rebate in full ?
  • Thanks for the piece AM.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,179
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    wishful thinking

    the UK cannot go back to where it was in May 2016

    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column.

    Albion isnt called perfidious for nothing

    Hardly. We have just fallen in with a few wrong 'uns. When this generation of exceptionally untalented politicians is out of the way we can return to our traditional common sense.
    As I've commented on here many times before there are far better things to do nowadays than subject yourself to 24 hour news and continual attacks on social media - and to market yourself enough to be an MP you need to be on social media.

    So if you think this crop of MPs is bad wait 10 years....
    By coincidence my response to this was the same as your username.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    Brexit made joining the Euro inevitable. Eurosceptics were too vain to realise they were on the wrong side in the referendum and that a vote to Leave would only discredit their position forever.
  • I received an email from Diaqus yesterday saying their userdata from 2012 had been exposed.

    Wasn't Disqus what PB used before Vanilla ?

    And is there anything which needs to be done ?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,527

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    See Torby_Fennel's shocking revelation downthread. I'm still reeling tbh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    I largely agree with Alastair's legal analysis. I think the key point is indeed Article 50(3). Once the notice is served it cannot be withdrawn without the consent of the other party, that is the EU as represented by the EC..

    In contract law, where I am more comfortable, if a party gives notice, for example a notice to quit bringing a lease to an end, the other party is entitled to rely upon it. The other party may consent to it being withdrawn but there is no unilateral right to do so. The other party has a right not to be messed about. I have never thought that a Treaty would be interpreted any differently.

    The provisions of 50 (3) contain what is called a stop gap provision. They state that the Treaties will cease to have effect on the coming into force of the withdrawal agreement , "or failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

    The stop gap provision therefore applies even if there is no withdrawal agreement. The clause contains an express mechanism to disapply it but that can only operate if both parties agree, unanimously in the case of the EU. I have never really understood how it could be contended in light of such wording that the UK could somehow withdraw the notice itself.

    One last point, the "in agreement with the Member State concerned" seems to me that the clause contemplates a different agreement with the MS than the simple one of continued membership. So we could use this provision to have a transitional agreement where some but not all of the Treaties continued to apply on whatever terms and conditions the parties settle on. I am not sure that the correct construction of this provision is that the parties could continue to allow a MS to remain as members of the EU indefinitely or go back to the status quo ante. They could agree that but the UK, for example, would not be entitled to assume that any opt outs etc that they had had before the notice applied. That would be a matter for the agreement, not of right.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,997

    I received an email from Diaqus yesterday saying their userdata from 2012 had been exposed.

    Wasn't Disqus what PB used before Vanilla ?

    And is there anything which needs to be done ?

    https://thehackernews.com/2017/10/disqus-comment-system-hacked.html
    https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/disqus-breach-exposed-175m-emails/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    edited October 13
    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,644
    Interesting analysis - thanks, Alastair.

    I don't have the legal qualifications to assess the potential for unilateral revocation. But I think the issue is overwhelmingly political. If Britain said "Er, on second thoughts, forget it", there would certainly be a legal challenge, and substantial opposition to carrying on with business as usual. On the other hand, if Britain and the EU agreed that Brexit was presenting impossible difficulties and should be scrapped, I think the EU27 would definitely be up for it. It would, however, require a significant change to the British Government to make it plausible - either a Labour government (who might or might not wish to in practice, but quite possibly assuming the sort of meltdown we're talking about) or some sort of cross-party coalition.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849

    YouGov:

    Remain 47
    Leave 42

    The dam is breaking.

    Again?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,045
    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 632

    YouGov:

    Remain 47
    Leave 42

    The dam is breaking.

    Let me guess - full EU integration now on the cards
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849

    YouGov:

    Remain 47
    Leave 42

    The dam is breaking.

    Let me guess - full EU integration now on the cards
    1) Dissolution of the UK
    2) Euro membership
    3) Schengen
    4) Our share of Merkel’s “refugees”
    5) Security Council Seat surrendered to Juncker
    6) Euro Army
    7) Morning coffee....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    Makes sense. Where there's a will there's a way, but the meaning of the words woukd seem to lean towards irrevocability.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column
    Worse, we are apostates....
    I think that is a key point. The UK has been a half hearted member of the EU since Maastricht. We have constantly sought and obtained opt outs. Other countries have too but none to the extent that we have. This has greatly complicated the development of the acquis of the EU, often in completely irrational ways because the acquis assumes that EU law applies equally to all MS. The CJE has got itself tied into knots trying to work out what the effect of opt outs are in respect of citizens of the EU who should have these rights.

    Of course the UK has brought money to the table. It has also brought a significant export market for many MSs and considerable expertise on matters like financial regulation. But looking forward does the EU27 want a MS who is so clearly uncommitted to the project? The priority right now is to align the institutions of the EZ with those of the EU. We have already gone to the CJE to stop that with slightly mixed success. If the UK wants to change its mind because of the possible effects on trade but clearly has those reservations I struggle to see the EU27 agreeing.

    We are not so much apostates as people who never believed the teachings of the church in the first place but quite liked the contacts that membership brought. That might work for some members of the CoE but we are dealing with a somewhat less pragmatic cult.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,343

    Can we send two short people to the land of Mordor and cast Article 50 into the Crack of Doom?

    The EU is the dark lord's army and Junker is Sauron ?

    Seems about right.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,343
    edited October 13
    Telegraph cartoon

    image
  • I received an email from Diaqus yesterday saying their userdata from 2012 had been exposed.

    Wasn't Disqus what PB used before Vanilla ?

    And is there anything which needs to be done ?

    https://thehackernews.com/2017/10/disqus-comment-system-hacked.html
    https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/disqus-breach-exposed-175m-emails/
    Thanks.

    Its worrying that Disqus have only found out now but if something bad was going to happen it would already have done so.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    Could you elaborate? How does Remain 47 mean "Right to Leave"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,224
    edited October 13

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    This being the same yougov who had Remain 2% ahead on the eve of the EU referendum which Leave win by 4%? The fact Remain cannot even break 50% on the poll you have linked to confirms virtually nobody has changed their mind
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,343
    Used to be a rule about posting fake polling data. Perhaps williamglenn should brush up on it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511

    With a bit of luck (ha!) some of the journalists who lurk will read Mr Meeks’ article, absorb and leave better informed.....

    With Any Luck they can actually read the Supreme Court appeal decision too, it wouldn't settle this question but it would several others.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    Could you elaborate? How does Remain 47 mean "Right to Leave"?
    I messed up the edit. It should be:

    Wrong to leave: 47
    Right to leave: 42

    The biggest lead for Remain on the YouGov tracker since the referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,224

    YouGov:

    Remain 47
    Leave 42

    The dam is breaking.

    Let me guess - full EU integration now on the cards
    1) Dissolution of the UK
    2) Euro membership
    3) Schengen
    4) Our share of Merkel’s “refugees”
    5) Security Council Seat surrendered to Juncker
    6) Euro Army
    7) Morning coffee....
    If that was the price of returning Leave would win 60% 40% minimum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column
    Worse, we are apostates....
    I think that is a key point. The UK has been a half hearted member of the EU since Maastricht. We have constantly sought and obtained opt outs. Other countries have too but none to the extent that we have. This has greatly complicated the development of the acquis of the EU, often in completely irrational ways because the acquis assumes that EU law applies equally to all MS. The CJE has got itself tied into knots trying to work out what the effect of opt outs are in respect of citizens of the EU who should have these rights.

    Of course the UK has brought money to the table. It has also brought a significant export market for many MSs and considerable expertise on matters like financial regulation. But looking forward does the EU27 want a MS who is so clearly uncommitted to the project? The priority right now is to align the institutions of the EZ with those of the EU. We have already gone to the CJE to stop that with slightly mixed success. If the UK wants to change its mind because of the possible effects on trade but clearly has those reservations I struggle to see the EU27 agreeing.

    We are not so much apostates as people who never believed the teachings of the church in the first place but quite liked the contacts that membership brought. That might work for some members of the CoE but we are dealing with a somewhat less pragmatic cult.
    Well, local churches and mosques often hold interfaith and open community events, so I hope the EU cam find it in their hearts to invite us to the next church BBQ. Just because someone is no longer a member doesn't mean you are obliged to be shirty to them, even if you do not owe them favours. And of course we can return the sentiment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    HYUFD said:

    YouGov:

    Remain 47
    Leave 42

    The dam is breaking.

    Let me guess - full EU integration now on the cards
    1) Dissolution of the UK
    2) Euro membership
    3) Schengen
    4) Our share of Merkel’s “refugees”
    5) Security Council Seat surrendered to Juncker
    6) Euro Army
    7) Morning coffee....
    If that was the price of returning Leave would win 60% 40% minimum
    Leavers made the mistake of opening the other door... It's become a Monty Hall problem.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,343

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    Could you elaborate? How does Remain 47 mean "Right to Leave"?
    I messed up the edit. It should be:

    Wrong to leave: 47
    Right to leave: 42

    The biggest lead for Remain on the YouGov tracker since the referendum.
    Conflating whether we were right or wrong to leave and how people might vote in a fictional future referendum is a leap.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    I hope those are disaffected remainers who accept we are leaving, not those still hoping to remain , or they will be very disappointed by PM Corbyn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,224
    Yes but she leads comfortably with Leave voters who comprise 52% of the electorate and most recent pills have shown UKIP on double their June voteshare showing part of the problem is she is arguably not pro Brexit enough now for some voters
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,523
    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around. See the support for decisions to reject EU positions. Few williamglennites exist; if there is a cliff edge exit, support for the EU and friendliness for Europe in general will be at its lowest ebb for a long time.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    Could you elaborate? How does Remain 47 mean "Right to Leave"?
    I messed up the edit. It should be:

    Wrong to leave: 47
    Right to leave: 42

    The biggest lead for Remain on the YouGov tracker since the referendum.
    The detail seems visible via this tweet:

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,224
    edited October 13

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov:

    Remain 47
    Leave 42

    The dam is breaking.

    Let me guess - full EU integration now on the cards
    1) Dissolution of the UK
    2) Euro membership
    3) Schengen
    4) Our share of Merkel’s “refugees”
    5) Security Council Seat surrendered to Juncker
    6) Euro Army
    7) Morning coffee....
    If that was the price of returning Leave would win 60% 40% minimum
    Leavers made the mistake of opening the other door... It's become a Monty Hall problem.
    Yes and if the choice was that other door rather than returning to what we had before voters would move from indecision about returning to slamming it shut. At most we will return to the EEA in a decade or so and rejoin EFTA we will not join a Federal EU
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,343

    The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Exit the EU then move on and await the term "Remainer" being as relevant as Sindy2.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but she leads comfortably with Leave voters who comprise 52% of the electorate and most recent pills have shown UKIP on double their June voteshare showing part of the problem is she is arguably not pro Brexit enough now for some voters

    That would be less of a problem if the project of leaving the EU were on solid foundations. Instead the Tories are just consolidating the voters who are going to be most disappointed, no matter what happens. It's a dire electoral position to be in.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,375
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column
    Worse, we are apostates....
    I think that is a key point. The UK has been a half hearted member of the EU since Maastricht. We have constantly sought and obtained opt outs. Other countries have too but none to the extent that we have. This has greatly complicated the development of the acquis of the EU, often in completely irrational ways because the acquis assumes that EU law applies equally to all MS. The CJE has got itself tied into knots trying to work out what the effect of opt outs are in respect of citizens of the EU who should have these rights.

    Of course the UK has brought money to the table. It has also brought a significant export market for many MSs and considerable expertise on matters like financial regulation. But looking forward does the EU27 want a MS who is so clearly uncommitted to the project? The priority right now is to align the institutions of the EZ with those of the EU. We have already gone to the CJE to stop that with slightly mixed success. If the UK wants to change its mind because of the possible effects on trade but clearly has those reservations I struggle to see the EU27 agreeing.

    We are not so much apostates as people who never believed the teachings of the church in the first place but quite liked the contacts that membership brought. That might work for some members of the CoE but we are dealing with a somewhat less pragmatic cult.
    Well, local churches and mosques often hold interfaith and open community events, so I hope the EU cam find it in their hearts to invite us to the next church BBQ. Just because someone is no longer a member doesn't mean you are obliged to be shirty to them, even if you do not owe them favours. And of course we can return the sentiment.
    Oh absolutely. I think they will want a close relationship with us and we certainly want a close relationship with them. But from outside the tent, I think.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,343

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364
    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around. See the support for decisions to reject EU positions. Few williamglennites exist; if there is a cliff edge exit, support for the EU and friendliness for Europe in general will be at its lowest ebb for a long time.
    The biggest risk to the current government is in agreeing terms. Even the Florence Speech would be rejected by significant parts of the Tory party, and further concessions anathema.

    On the other hand a "No Deal hostile WTO Brexit Crashout" would be a disater in terms of reputation for competence, as well as a significant problem for the country.

    The Tories are in a forced choice scenario, arguing amongst themselves while the clock ticks.

    The Monty Hall option of revoking A50 is clearly tempting some.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    TGOHF said:

    The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Exit the EU then move on and await the term "Remainer" being as relevant as Sindy2.

    If they remain, no pUn intended, undesired by remain voters after we've left it doesn't matter what they're called. Not least since as we've seen with Ukip they cannot guarantee they will hold support of all leavers once matters are concluded. They cannot have such a large group write them off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    wishful thinking

    the UK cannot go back to where it was in May 2016

    we are damaged goods, suspect, the fifth column.

    Albion isnt called perfidious for nothing

    Hardly. We have just fallen in with a few wrong 'uns. When this generation of exceptionally untalented politicians is out of the way we can return to our traditional common sense.
    What makes you think there's anything better waiting in line?

    Politicians are a negative part of society, berks who loyally support political parties are the real problem.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364

    The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

    Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,546
    Mr. Meeks, perhaps but a large part of the sentiment will be governed by attitudes towards the EU and its approach to negotiations. Being perceived to stand up for the British interest against a foreign power is a good look for a government.

    However, not unlike a photon appearing blue or yellow under different conditions, the perspective of the Conservatives will be highly affected by (and, in turn, affect) the perspective of Labour. One cannot be considered in isolation of the other.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    Could you elaborate? How does Remain 47 mean "Right to Leave"?
    I messed up the edit. It should be:

    Wrong to leave: 47
    Right to leave: 42

    The biggest lead for Remain on the YouGov tracker since the referendum.
    The detail seems visible via this tweet:

    Only 89 per cent of Tories who supported the party at the general election would vote the same way tomorrow

    In the previous poll it was also “only” 89% while soaraway Labour are on 92%....

    Spinning a “no movement” poll, despite the “most disastrous conference speech of all time
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,450
    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    The ECJ. In the end theirs is the only judgement that counts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    Yes and no. Yes, it would have been in June, and probably still now. But if things are going very badly, people might well seek to punish the government so much that they ignore the change in Labour's position and the implication.

    It's like how Blair was very popular but online at least you can find it hard to find a fan of his now, and people act like they never liked him when clearly millions did. In the right situation, and motivated enough, the public would ignore that of course respecting the referendum result was reasonable for politicians to do, and might instead go 'er, yeah, and I would have too, sure'.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,849

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    Could you elaborate? How does Remain 47 mean "Right to Leave"?
    I messed up the edit. It should be:

    Wrong to leave: 47
    Right to leave: 42

    The biggest lead for Remain on the YouGov tracker since the referendum.
    The detail seems visible via this tweet:

    Only 89 per cent of Tories who supported the party at the general election would vote the same way tomorrow

    In the previous poll it was also “only” 89% while soaraway Labour are on 92%....

    Spinning a “no movement” poll, despite the “most disastrous conference speech of all time
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 894

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    Except that actually, while Corbynistas can claim to be somewhat innocent, the real trajectory out of the EU was set by the Labour movement.

    First the Delors speech at the beginning of the love in - the 'right' in office but never in power, the social law ratchet. Then the Nice and Lisbon treaty processes and opting into the social chapter. Thirdly the A8 Accession rules. At every turn, the Labour party created UKIP. They can stand on the platform of never wanting to give the people a choice, which is correct - but the result was more to do with Labour's actions in office than Tories.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,364

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    Failure is an orphan.

    If Brexit proves to be a failure at the time of the subsequent GE, not many are going to rally to the Tory flag.

    While Labour can safely say "We would have done it differently".

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,092

    ydoethur said:

    DM_Andy said:

    If the UK Government decided to withdraw A50 and the EU accept, then who's going to have standing to challenge that? As it's clear that the UK and EU27 can choose to postpone Brexit until one day after the heat death of the universe, it's clear that they can just cancel it completely.

    I don't think that's the question. We all know the UK can change its mind, and the EU could accept. That's in Article 50 itself. The question is whether (1) the EU would have to accept (Alistair says no and his logic looks as impeccable as ever) and (2) if not, would all countries and regions have to agree? Because there seems a fair chance at least one disgruntled area would veto.
    I don't think there would be any problem from the EU. Just read the label. It is the European Union. Of course Britain has to be in it. We are part of Europe. It would be like trying to keep East Anglia out of England.
    Could the UK unilaterally withdraw A50? There is only one way to find out for sure!

    I could not see a reason for the EU27 to block it though, and it does look after the Gina Miller case that such a decision would have to be made by Parliament. That would be a fun debate to watch.

    Such an act would stop the clock, but also stop negotiations. Far better to apply for a significant extension to the negotiation period. This would be at the discretion of the EU27 of course, but would allow negotiations to continue.

    It's all going a bit Bleak House:

    "Brexit drones on. This scarecrow of a suit has, over the course of time, become so complicated, that no man alive knows what it means. The parties to it understand it least; but it has been observed that no two Chancery lawyers can talk about it for five minutes without coming to a total disagreement as to all the premises. Innumerable children have been born into the cause; innumerable young people have married into it; innumerable old people have died out of it. Scores of persons have deliriously found themselves made parties in Brexit without knowing how or why; whole families have inherited legendary hatreds with the suit. The little plaintiff or defendant, who was promised a new rocking-horse when Brexit should be settled, has grown up, possessed himself of a real horse, and trotted away into the other world. Fair wards of court have faded into mothers and grandmothers; a long procession of Chancellors has come in and gone out."
    It only goes "a bit Bleak House" if we go for your never-ending extensions. You would MAKE it "a bit Bleak House". Currently, Jarndyce and Jarndyce comes to an end in March 2019.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,368

    The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

    Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
    Punishment budget?
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

    Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
    Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511

    The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

    Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
    I'm going to take a guess it is not going to be a good one. Lots more freebies needing to be found, planned savings abandoned as they lack the numbers to enforce it, so it won't please the base nor appeal to opponents, and growth forecasts will be down and people will overreact.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,491
    edited October 13

    YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    It 's always been about following leaders. Very few understood what the function of the EU was (amongst Leavers possibly none) and as time has passed those leading the movement seem to have gone into hiding or just drifted off. Johnson IDS Farage (who has disappeared altogether) Hoey Gove and Davis (who looks broken) and with no substantial figures to take their place their supporters are drifting off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821
    TonyE said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    Except that actually, while Corbynistas can claim to be somewhat innocent, the real trajectory out of the EU was set by the Labour movement.

    First the Delors speech at the beginning of the love in - the 'right' in office but never in power, the social law ratchet. Then the Nice and Lisbon treaty processes and opting into the social chapter. Thirdly the A8 Accession rules. At every turn, the Labour party created UKIP. They can stand on the platform of never wanting to give the people a choice, which is correct - but the result was more to do with Labour's actions in office than Tories.
    I look forward to hearing Conservatives articulate that argument in the heat of an election campaign.
  • YouGov:

    Remain 47 (Right to leave)
    Leave 42 (Wrong to leave)

    The dam is breaking.

    Could you elaborate? How does Remain 47 mean "Right to Leave"?
    I messed up the edit. It should be:

    Wrong to leave: 47
    Right to leave: 42

    The biggest lead for Remain on the YouGov tracker since the referendum.
    The detail seems visible via this tweet:

    Only 89 per cent of Tories who supported the party at the general election would vote the same way tomorrow

    In the previous poll it was also “only” 89% while soaraway Labour are on 92%....

    Spinning a “no movement” poll, despite the “most disastrous conference speech of all time
    It’s the leadership/PM polling that Sam Coates was talking about, which press a collapse in VI in future polled

    Support for Theresa May has dropped since her disastrous conference speech, with more voters saying they “don’t know” who would make the best prime minister than choosing either her or Jeremy Corbyn.

    The poll found that 33 per cent of voters want Mrs May as prime minister, down 3 points since last week, while Mr Corbyn is also on 33 per cent, which is unchanged. However, 35 per cent say they are “not sure” who they would pick, a significant vote of no confidence in both party leaders.

    Of those who voted Tory in June, 75 per cent would pick Mrs May, while 3 per cent prefer Mr Corbyn and 23 per cent say they do not know.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 8,871
    rcs1000 said:

    Good piece, Alistair.

    Thanks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,511

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    Failure is an orphan.

    If Brexit proves to be a failure at the time of the subsequent GE, not many are going to rally to the Tory flag.

    While Labour can safely say "We would have done it differently".

    Falsely. But they can say it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,204

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess,
    we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"

    cant see that working myself
  • The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.

    Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.

    Revenge is a dish best served cold.

    Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
    Lets hope its more competent than his previous effort.

    If he wants to save some money he can start by shutting down the OBR.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,343

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    So if the EU has a crisis after Brexit the Cons will win by a landslide ?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,962
    2 points: first, there may be a tiny bit of wriggle room in the fact that the final word in the first sentence of 1.2 is "intention" not "decision". "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we decided yesterday" is a valid card to play in an argument; "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we intended yesterday" is not, because it invites the response "That is interesting, but what are our intentions now?"

    Point 2 for English lawyers getting twitchy about evidence from the draftsman of the interpretation of his wording (inadmissible in England): the EU is a foreign country, they do things differently there, and as I understand it you are allowed to look at the travaux preparatoires as evidence of the intention of the law.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,821

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess,
    we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"

    cant see that working myself
    The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe that only their massively damaging ideology should be tested to destruction. Others will work simply on the basis of time for a change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,224
    edited October 13

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    Failure is an orphan.

    If Brexit proves to be a failure at the time of the subsequent GE, not many are going to rally to the Tory flag.

    While Labour can safely say "We would have done it differently".

    Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty, for most Remain voters failure would be failing to stay in the single market or at least get a good trade deal from the EU

    Labour, the LDs, the Greens and SNP all have the lions share of Remain voters so there is little room for the Tories with them, however the Tories currently have the majority of Leave voters to themselves, if they abandon them UKIP will be waiting for their slice of the Leave voters cake too
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,478
    HYUFD said:

    Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,

    And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 894

    TonyE said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    Anecdote:

    Genuine I swear.

    My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was going to do but in the end came down for remain, and was fairly upset and not a little amazed at the result, turned to me this morning (mid Today interview with obscure Danish and German MEP’s), and said,

    “They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.

    The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.

    Agreed.

    When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
    I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it helps the government a great deal, but it does explain the overwhelming support for no deal rather than a bad deal - since many many love to make the point we will have to accept whatever the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
    I'd say that's more like it.

    At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
    You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?

    That would be brave.
    No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
    Except that actually, while Corbynistas can claim to be somewhat innocent, the real trajectory out of the EU was set by the Labour movement.

    First the Delors speech at the beginning of the love in - the 'right' in office but never in power, the social law ratchet. Then the Nice and Lisbon treaty processes and opting into the social chapter. Thirdly the A8 Accession rules. At every turn, the Labour party created UKIP. They can stand on the platform of never wanting to give the people a choice, which is correct - but the result was more to do with Labour's actions in office than Tories.
    I look forward to hearing Conservatives articulate that argument in the heat of an election campaign.
    I look forward to a Conservative party able to articulate any argument...they're useless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,224

    HYUFD said:

    Yes but she leads comfortably with Leave voters who comprise 52% of the electorate and most recent pills have shown UKIP on double their June voteshare showing part of the problem is she is arguably not pro Brexit enough now for some voters

    That would be less of a problem if the project of leaving the EU were on solid foundations. Instead the Tories are just consolidating the voters who are going to be most disappointed, no matter what happens. It's a dire electoral position to be in.
    If the Tories abandoned Leave voters they may not even come second next time let alone first but could be overtaken by UKIP
This discussion has been closed.