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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s cartoon and the latest Opinium poll

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s cartoon and the latest Opinium poll

Opinium for Observer sees almost no movement

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725
    First?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,056
    Second like the Tiny Tots in the NLD.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    The Opinium figures would equate to Labour on 290 seats and the Tories on 288 seats and the LDs on 14.

    So again the SNP and LDs would hold the balance of power.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,417
    Nothing changes until Brexit gets some clarity.....
  • As dull as a night out with Philip Hammond.
  • Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams has revealed he plans to stand down as leader of the party.
    Mr Adams said he will not stand for election for the Irish parliament (Dail) at the next election.
  • Nothing changes until Brexit gets some clarity.....

    Or the budget on Wednesday, whichever comes first.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268
    Is this place infested* with Brexiteers as usual?

    *OGH's preferred term when referring to leavers, I believe
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,746
    HYUFD said:

    The Opinium figures would equate to Labour on 290 seats and the Tories on 288 seats and the LDs on 14.

    So again the SNP and LDs would hold the balance of power.

    Er, no. Your "projection" seems to imply very little movement elsewhere so 290 LAB + 34 SNP + 4 PC = 328 (the same as the current CON-DUP total).

    I don't know why you keep implying that a) the LDs will hold the balance of power which they won't and b) their support will be needed for a minority Corbyn Government to exist (again, on your own figures, it won't).
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,041
    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Is this place infested* with Brexiteers as usual?

    *OGH's preferred term when referring to leavers, I believe

    That depends on if there is a distinction between Brexiteers and Brexiters, a sort of Remoaner vs Remainer situation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
  • As everyone involved says this has nothing to do with recent difficulties shall we assume that it has everything to do with recent difficulties ?

    http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-to-pay-400-million-pound-debt-to-iran-soon-iranian-envoy-says/ar-BBF5sTP?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,710

    Nothing changes until Brexit gets some clarity.....

    Or they throw Theresa off the cliff...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    Corbyn had his own newspaper supporters, both the Guardian and the Mirror backed Labour in June
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,723
    kle4 said:

    Is this place infested* with Brexiteers as usual?

    *OGH's preferred term when referring to leavers, I believe

    That depends on if there is a distinction between Brexiteers and Brexiters, a sort of Remoaner vs Remainer situation.
    I'd quite like to be referred to as a Brexiteer. It sounds sort of bohemian and rather fun. Just a shame the policy associated with it is one that is contrary to the national interest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Except even Ed Miliband won under 30s, it is under 60s Labour really need to win over not under 30s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    Scott_P said:
    I cannot see the word 'fracas' without thinking about Terry Pratchett's Discworld 'The Truth' about Ankh-Morpork's first newspaper, and the reflection that certain words are like rare fish that can only survive in coral reefs, in that they are only ever used in news reporting, like fracas and rumpus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    GIN1138 said:

    Nothing changes until Brexit gets some clarity.....

    Or they throw Theresa off the cliff...
    It'll be claimed she tripped over.
  • nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Can't help feeling that hopeless predicament is somewhat exaggerated. This week's polls and local election results suggest that's wishful thinking on your part.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    I think sky writing is the way forward.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    HYUFD said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Except even Ed Miliband won under 30s, it is under 60s Labour really need to win over not under 30s.
    OR... they need to get the under 30s to vote in the same numbers as the over 60s do.

    And that surely is the big opportunity for Labour and where social media will help: to motivate the estwhile can't be bothered young voters to vote.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268
    kle4 said:

    Is this place infested* with Brexiteers as usual?

    *OGH's preferred term when referring to leavers, I believe

    That depends on if there is a distinction between Brexiteers and Brexiters, a sort of Remoaner vs Remainer situation.
    I think the language used by him, Meeks, Southam and various others to describe people who voted to leave is often ridiculous and insulting. Brexiteer/Remoaner is playground stuff. "Infestations" of "swivel-eyed" "xenephobes" is the language of the people who sound like they're the ones struggling to sleep at night. It's the pathetic sound of bad losers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Can't help feeling that hopeless predicament is somewhat exaggerated. This week's polls and local election results suggest that's wishful thinking on your part.
    Local election results suggested the Tories were right to think a big victory was likely, and local by-elections suggested the LDs were set for a good recovery too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Opinium figures would equate to Labour on 290 seats and the Tories on 288 seats and the LDs on 14.

    So again the SNP and LDs would hold the balance of power.

    Er, no. Your "projection" seems to imply very little movement elsewhere so 290 LAB + 34 SNP + 4 PC = 328 (the same as the current CON-DUP total).

    I don't know why you keep implying that a) the LDs will hold the balance of power which they won't and b) their support will be needed for a minority Corbyn Government to exist (again, on your own figures, it won't).
    Labour would probably gain Arfon from PC and 7 seats from the SNP on this poll but of course even if Labour could just about scrape a majority with SNP and PC votes they would still need LD support on a frequent basis to get legislation passed with potential Labour rebels like Umunna, Hoey, Mann and Field likely to frequently vote against a Corbyn government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Except even Ed Miliband won under 30s, it is under 60s Labour really need to win over not under 30s.
    OR... they need to get the under 30s to vote in the same numbers as the over 60s do.

    And that surely is the big opportunity for Labour and where social media will help: to motivate the estwhile can't be bothered young voters to vote.
    In 2017 actually a majority of under 30s voted unlike 2015 and still Labour did not win although it closed the gap so again it is under 60s Labour needs for an overall majority not under 30s.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 21,359
    edited November 2017
    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    edited November 2017
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    Corbyn had his own newspaper supporters, both the Guardian and the Mirror backed Labour in June
    They did.
    However, they did not have the semi-deranged hyper-partisan 14 pages of Daily Mail drivel.
    Which was, I would argue, so widely mocked, publicised and farcically over-the-top that it actively backfired.

    It is also stretching to say the Guardian supported Corbyn. Labour yes, Corbyn no.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,302
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    I think sky writing is the way forward.

    The Only Way Is Up



  • kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Can't help feeling that hopeless predicament is somewhat exaggerated. This week's polls and local election results suggest that's wishful thinking on your part.
    Local election results suggested the Tories were right to think a big victory was likely, and local by-elections suggested the LDs were set for a good recovery too.
    Sorry, not sure I understand your point. Are you agreeing with the poster who says the Tories are in hopeless predicament then?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
  • AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Students / graduates want their debts written off and public sector workers want a pay rise.

    Many of the rural or retired former LibDem voters are now backing the Conservatives.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Can't help feeling that hopeless predicament is somewhat exaggerated. This week's polls and local election results suggest that's wishful thinking on your part.
    Local election results suggested the Tories were right to think a big victory was likely, and local by-elections suggested the LDs were set for a good recovery too.
    Sorry, not sure I understand your point. Are you agreeing with the poster who says the Tories are in hopeless predicament then?
    I don't know if it is hopeless, though I think it is very difficult. The point was that the message that seemed to be coming from local by-elections and the May local elections was not borne out by the General Election, meaning either they did not really portend anything, or the situation changed in a very short space of time. Both of which would mean that while Tory results in locals, and resilience in the polls, are good news for them, it doesn't mean that it might still be hopeless.

    It could definitely be worse for them. Some would say it should be worse for them. It might well get worse for them. But while it is not definitively hopeless, nor is it definitely hopeful, and I'd say it was tending more the former than the latter myself. There are many dark clouds coming for them (Brexit untangling, a due recession etc)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900

    HYUFD said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Except even Ed Miliband won under 30s, it is under 60s Labour really need to win over not under 30s.
    OR... they need to get the under 30s to vote in the same numbers as the over 60s do.

    And that surely is the big opportunity for Labour and where social media will help: to motivate the estwhile can't be bothered young voters to vote.
    Indeed.

    There are plenty of tech-savvy Conservatives out there, but very few on the creative side who are able or motivated enough to produce that kind of content.

    It's not enough to have smart people, which the Conservatives clearly do, it's the ability to create a joined up campaign the way Labour did from registration -> regular engagement -> getting out the vote. Those skills are, unfortunately, generally found among individuals and agencies that are inimical to Conservative views. We exist as individuals but the overall culture is incredibly hostile.

    It's hard to hire an ad agency / digital agency / whoever when you can pretty much guarantee 90% of the people working on your account will be hostile to your views.

    I worked in agency land for a long time and can say that if you are a Conservative in such circles you keep your head down and don't tell anyone about it. In fact it is one of the reasons I left.

    It's not just agencies though, the tech scene is similarly mired in a stifling left-liberal consensus from which openly dissenting can be a career ending move. Look at what Google did to James Damore.

    Recruiting the kind of talent required to run a successful campaign is hard when at least 90% of the people with the skills you need are either inimical to your cause or would consider working on it to be a potentially career-ending move.

    It is a concern for me because I think social media and digital campaigning in general will be even more important at the next GE and the Conservatives are already a long way behind.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Can't help feeling that hopeless predicament is somewhat exaggerated. This week's polls and local election results suggest that's wishful thinking on your part.
    Local election results suggested the Tories were right to think a big victory was likely, and local by-elections suggested the LDs were set for a good recovery too.
    Sorry, not sure I understand your point. Are you agreeing with the poster who says the Tories are in hopeless predicament then?
    I don't know if it is hopeless, though I think it is very difficult. The point was that the message that seemed to be coming from local by-elections and the May local elections was not borne out by the General Election, meaning either they did not really portend anything, or the situation changed in a very short space of time. Both of which would mean that while Tory results in locals, and resilience in the polls, are good news for them, it doesn't mean that it might be hopeless.
    It did change during the general election campaign as it indeed did in 2015 but in a different way. But that doesn't make any predictions easier for the next election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    Scott_P said:

    tps://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/932003129947836417

    Good for them, although I don't think they will get much political capital for it. Judging from what I've seen, it just leads other groups to complain that they are not getting pay boosts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Can't help feeling that hopeless predicament is somewhat exaggerated. This week's polls and local election results suggest that's wishful thinking on your part.
    Local election results suggested the Tories were right to think a big victory was likely, and local by-elections suggested the LDs were set for a good recovery too.
    Sorry, not sure I understand your point. Are you agreeing with the poster who says the Tories are in hopeless predicament then?
    I don't know if it is hopeless, though I think it is very difficult. The point was that the message that seemed to be coming from local by-elections and the May local elections was not borne out by the General Election, meaning either they did not really portend anything, or the situation changed in a very short space of time. Both of which would mean that while Tory results in locals, and resilience in the polls, are good news for them, it doesn't mean that it might be hopeless.
    It did change during the general election campaign as it indeed did in 2015 but in a different way. But that doesn't make any predictions easier for the next election.
    Indeed. My personal view is there are a number of factors that will combine to make things very hard for them moving forward, but it is not definitive by any means. However even if things do turn out well, one needs to be careful of clutching straws now all the same.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    Surely the only answer to the question posed in the cartoon is, “ I believe in Santa”. The other two are just so ludicrous that no one sensible would believe in them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    Corbyn had his own newspaper supporters, both the Guardian and the Mirror backed Labour in June
    They did.
    However, they did not have the semi-deranged hyper-partisan 14 pages of Daily Mail drivel.
    Which was, I would argue, so widely mocked, publicised and farcically over-the-top that it actively backfired.

    It is also stretching to say the Guardian supported Corbyn. Labour yes, Corbyn no.
    Daily Mirror frontpage June 8th 'Lies, Damned Lies and Theresa May'

    https://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/daily-mirror/front-pages-today.cfm?frontpage=50957
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    Are they? We no longer share a monarch with them, they are not even in the Commonwealth. They are certainly less 'family' now for me than Australia, New Zealand, Canada or even India.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited November 2017
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Can't help feeling that hopeless predicament is somewhat exaggerated. This week's polls and local election results suggest that's wishful thinking on your part.
    Local election results suggested the Tories were right to think a big victory was likely, and local by-elections suggested the LDs were set for a good recovery too.
    Sorry, not sure I understand your point. Are you agreeing with the poster who says the Tories are in hopeless predicament then?
    I don't know if it is hopeless, though I think it is very difficult. The point was that the message that seemed to be coming from local by-elections and the May local elections was not borne out by the General Election, meaning either they did not really portend anything, or the situation changed in a very short space of time. Both of which would mean that while Tory results in locals, and resilience in the polls, are good news for them, it doesn't mean that it might still be hopeless.

    It could definitely be worse for them. Some would say it should be worse for them. It might well get worse for them. But while it is not definitively hopeless, nor is it definitely hopeful, and I'd say it was tending more the former than the latter myself. There are many dark clouds coming for them (Brexit untangling, a due recession etc)
    The Tories got 38% in the May county council elections, they actually increased that total to 42% in June at the general election. The main change was the LDs collapsed from 18% in the local elections to 7% in June while Labour went up from 27% to 40%.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 294
    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    The problem is it's largely shared and 'liked' by those who are already sympathetic. The Tories efforts are pathetic but some of the most shared stuff (which is sometimes fake) is similar to the kind of news right-wing tabloids revel in - political correctness gone mad, feckless migrants etc. That includes actual tabloid stories that get shared, although The Sun initially lost ground due to its paywall they're now pumping their vast resources into online, and you can bet their stuff gets shared as often as a Momentum ad.

    Secondly, you'd be unwise to bank on social media staying the same way for ever. It's already evolved and mutated hugely in little over a decade - and all it takes is for Facebook to change its rules or an algorithm and it could be less effective. Plus people change how they use social media - I have a number of friends who have cut right back on Facebook and now only use it as a convenient address book and diary, preferring to stay in touch on Whatsapp for daily chat or gossip.

    And the marketing in politics is much less important than what you're selling. You don't have to work very hard to convince people the Tories are malicious, but those people will vote for them anyway if the alternative offered is unconvincing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    Corbyn had his own newspaper supporters, both the Guardian and the Mirror backed Labour in June
    They did.
    However, they did not have the semi-deranged hyper-partisan 14 pages of Daily Mail drivel.
    Which was, I would argue, so widely mocked, publicised and farcically over-the-top that it actively backfired.

    It is also stretching to say the Guardian supported Corbyn. Labour yes, Corbyn no.
    Daily Mirror frontpage June 8th 'Lies, Damned Lies and Theresa May'

    https://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/daily-mirror/front-pages-today.cfm?frontpage=50957
    Not a patch on what Corbyn faced.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited November 2017
    I don't quite get the level of outrage - the ROI are on the other side of the negotiations. Yes, they are still our friends and neighbours - as noted in that thread they are not even classed as foreign for the purposes of UK law - and I want as harmonious a relationship with them as humanly possible, but there is a negotiation between the EU 27 and the UK, two sides, of which one is us and the other is, well, the other side. There'll be plenty of people with close ties on both sides, of course, but in terms of the State's negotiations, they are on opposite sides on this issue.

    Is it the reference to people cheering for the other side? That might be worth some outrage - suggesting people who oppose the present strategy are all doing something wrong - but is there some deeply unpleasant tinge to accurately describing the other side in a negotiation as the other side that I am not seeing, since that is the bit complained about, not the bit about cheering for that side?

    Seriously, if the term 'the other side' is outrageous then how are we supposed to refer to parties who are on the converse side of a negotiation?
  • Having been to the Meadowhall shopping centre today I can confirm there is no shortage of consumer spending taking place.

    But what is noticeable is how there has been a shift in spending from people buying things to people spending in restaurants.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268
    kle4 said:

    I don't quite get the level of outrage - the ROI are on the other side of the negotiations. Yes, they are still our friends and neighbours - as noted in that thread they are not even classed as foreign for the purposes of UK law - and I want as harmonious a relationship with them as humanly possible, but there is a negotiation between the EU 27 and the UK, two sides, of which one is us and the other is, well, the other side. There'll be plenty of people with close ties on both sides, of course, but in terms of the State's negotiations, they are on opposite sides on this issue.

    Is it the reference to people cheering for the other side? That might be worth some outrage - suggesting people who oppose the present strategy are all doing something wrong - but is there some deeply unpleasant tinge to accurately describing the other side in a negotiation as the other side that I am not seeing, since that is the bit complained about, not the bit about cheering for that side?

    Seriously, if the term 'the other side' is outrageous then how are we supposed to refer to parties who are on the converse side of a negotiation.
    He was criticising Al Campbell for this "Alastair Campbell
    @campbellclaret
    Leo Varadkar far too kind in saying the UK government hasn’t thought Brexit through. They haven’t thought full stop. Play hardball Leo!!"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    Corbyn had his own newspaper supporters, both the Guardian and the Mirror backed Labour in June
    They did.
    However, they did not have the semi-deranged hyper-partisan 14 pages of Daily Mail drivel.
    Which was, I would argue, so widely mocked, publicised and farcically over-the-top that it actively backfired.

    It is also stretching to say the Guardian supported Corbyn. Labour yes, Corbyn no.
    Daily Mirror frontpage June 8th 'Lies, Damned Lies and Theresa May'

    https://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/daily-mirror/front-pages-today.cfm?frontpage=50957
    Not a patch on what Corbyn faced.
    The Daily Mirror was as anti May as the Daily Mail was anti Corbyn.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459

    Having been to the Meadowhall shopping centre today I can confirm there is no shortage of consumer spending taking place.

    But what is noticeable is how there has been a shift in spending from people buying things to people spending in restaurants.

    My father finds it all entirely baffling. When I was young we ate out maybe 6 times a year, at most.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    I don't quite get the level of outrage - the ROI are on the other side of the negotiations. Yes, they are still our friends and neighbours - as noted in that thread they are not even classed as foreign for the purposes of UK law - and I want as harmonious a relationship with them as humanly possible, but there is a negotiation between the EU 27 and the UK, two sides, of which one is us and the other is, well, the other side. There'll be plenty of people with close ties on both sides, of course, but in terms of the State's negotiations, they are on opposite sides on this issue.

    Is it the reference to people cheering for the other side? That might be worth some outrage - suggesting people who oppose the present strategy are all doing something wrong - but is there some deeply unpleasant tinge to accurately describing the other side in a negotiation as the other side that I am not seeing, since that is the bit complained about, not the bit about cheering for that side?

    Seriously, if the term 'the other side' is outrageous then how are we supposed to refer to parties who are on the converse side of a negotiation.
    He was criticising Al Campbell for this "Alastair Campbell
    @campbellclaret
    Leo Varadkar far too kind in saying the UK government hasn’t thought Brexit through. They haven’t thought full stop. Play hardball Leo!!"
    Right, so the problem is his comment about people backing the other side being a problem, not use of the 'other side', so why is use of that term the focus of the complaint when they are the other side?

    I find that bizarre - there's an actual thing to complain about, and the focus is shifted to complain about his terminology, irrelevantly, since even if the Irish are family, they are the other side of the negotiations.

    Which as this shows, dilutes the focus on the thing that might actually need complaining about
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 21,533
    Can I recommend any PBers with an interest in law read the fabulous Jeremy Hutchinson's Case Histories.

    Utterly fascinating.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I recommend any PBers with an interest in law read the fabulous Jeremy Hutchinson's Case Histories.

    Utterly fascinating.

    Gah. I very nearly bought that the other day.

    Thanks for the tip.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    Yet still Corbyn is nowhere near a big enough lead for an overall majority. Plus Corbyn at least backs Brexit and respects democracy even if he has leftwing economic views which is more than can be said for some on the Blairite wing of Labour.
  • Mortimer said:

    Having been to the Meadowhall shopping centre today I can confirm there is no shortage of consumer spending taking place.

    But what is noticeable is how there has been a shift in spending from people buying things to people spending in restaurants.

    My father finds it all entirely baffling. When I was young we ate out maybe 6 times a year, at most.
    Same here - it was Berni Inn for birthday sort of eating out.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    As a Labour supporter -but not a supporter of Corbyn -I have to point out that it is Corbynistas who suffer from the blind spot
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900
    MJW said:

    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    The problem is it's largely shared and 'liked' by those who are already sympathetic. The Tories efforts are pathetic but some of the most shared stuff (which is sometimes fake) is similar to the kind of news right-wing tabloids revel in - political correctness gone mad, feckless migrants etc. That includes actual tabloid stories that get shared, although The Sun initially lost ground due to its paywall they're now pumping their vast resources into online, and you can bet their stuff gets shared as often as a Momentum ad.

    Secondly, you'd be unwise to bank on social media staying the same way for ever. It's already evolved and mutated hugely in little over a decade - and all it takes is for Facebook to change its rules or an algorithm and it could be less effective. Plus people change how they use social media - I have a number of friends who have cut right back on Facebook and now only use it as a convenient address book and diary, preferring to stay in touch on Whatsapp for daily chat or gossip.

    And the marketing in politics is much less important than what you're selling. You don't have to work very hard to convince people the Tories are malicious, but those people will vote for them anyway if the alternative offered is unconvincing.
    https://www.facebook.com/MoggMemes/
    https://www.facebook.com/reemmemeswithagreatbritishtheme/
    https://www.facebook.com/MargaretThatcherMemes/

    are all worth a look - If I were at CCHQ I'd hire some of those chaps pronto. Give them a couple of grand every month and the technical support to produce Momentum rapid response style videos.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    edited November 2017
    MoS finance pages are suggesting the Treasury are still thinking of reducing the VAT threshold.

    Are they actually trying to prevent the budget from passing? I simply don't see how that would pass. I'd expect about 25 rebels and the DUP to protest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! .
    It is not particularly surprising - it's how the extremes of left and right see their opponents each time in any case - Ever heard people talk of a socialist menace, or Tory scum?

    For my part I do not think Corbyn is evil, but I do think he would be appreciably worse as a PM than, say, Ed M and Gordon Brown, who I was perfectly relaxed about winning, and I don't think being a good campaigner alters that. Of course, the Tories are hardly painting an attractive reason to vote for them now either, so I might well end up voting LD next time, assuming they actually bother to attempt to win my vote next time (in contrast to their usual efforts they made no attempt this time, focusing successfully on a nearby seat instead).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    Mortimer said:

    Having been to the Meadowhall shopping centre today I can confirm there is no shortage of consumer spending taking place.

    But what is noticeable is how there has been a shift in spending from people buying things to people spending in restaurants.

    My father finds it all entirely baffling. When I was young we ate out maybe 6 times a year, at most.
    Six times a year! We thought we were lucky if we visited t' chippie once a quarter!

    But you try and tell the young people today that... and they won't believe ya'.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament - which IMO is a rather unlikely outcome with Lab+Con >80% . Even if another election were called and the polls stayed as per opinium ^ right up to polling day, I'd still have NOM >6/4
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    MJW said:

    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    The problem is it's largely shared and 'liked' by those who are already sympathetic. The Tories efforts are pathetic but some of the most shared stuff (which is sometimes fake) is similar to the kind of news right-wing tabloids revel in - political correctness gone mad, feckless migrants etc. That includes actual tabloid stories that get shared, although The Sun initially lost ground due to its paywall they're now pumping their vast resources into online, and you can bet their stuff gets shared as often as a Momentum ad.

    Secondly, you'd be unwise to bank on social media staying the same way for ever. It's already evolved and mutated hugely in little over a decade - and all it takes is for Facebook to change its rules or an algorithm and it could be less effective. Plus people change how they use social media - I have a number of friends who have cut right back on Facebook and now only use it as a convenient address book and diary, preferring to stay in touch on Whatsapp for daily chat or gossip.

    And the marketing in politics is much less important than what you're selling. You don't have to work very hard to convince people the Tories are malicious, but those people will vote for them anyway if the alternative offered is unconvincing.
    Oh I agree that it will not stay the same for ever.
    My point is that the Tories cannot simply rely on newspapers to do their work for them. Barely anyone under 50 reads them, and they are simply not trusted anyway.
    The Sun may well put a lot into Online. However, non-Sun readers simply will not believe anything they say. Why should they?
    Which is why they will have to get creative. And that does not mean paying for lots of ads.
    But using a bit of humour and invention wuld not go amiss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Mortimer said:

    Having been to the Meadowhall shopping centre today I can confirm there is no shortage of consumer spending taking place.

    But what is noticeable is how there has been a shift in spending from people buying things to people spending in restaurants.

    My father finds it all entirely baffling. When I was young we ate out maybe 6 times a year, at most.
    Six times a year! We thought we were lucky if we visited t' chippie once a quarter!

    But you try and tell the young people today that... and they won't believe ya'.
    At least you visited the chippie, we had to root around the bins next door to the chippie, and on top of that we....

    you get the picture, four yorkshireman forever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
  • kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    I am certain that Corbyn and more so McDonnell will not take labour to government. Indeed they are the brake holding back labour who should be out of sight in the polls
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,459
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Having been to the Meadowhall shopping centre today I can confirm there is no shortage of consumer spending taking place.

    But what is noticeable is how there has been a shift in spending from people buying things to people spending in restaurants.

    My father finds it all entirely baffling. When I was young we ate out maybe 6 times a year, at most.
    Six times a year! We thought we were lucky if we visited t' chippie once a quarter!

    But you try and tell the young people today that... and they won't believe ya'.
    At least you visited the chippie, we had to root around the bins next door to the chippie, and on top of that we....

    you get the picture, four yorkshireman forever.
    Ha!

    I'm just thinking back to my 18th birthday. It was a big deal to go to the local Indian restaurant. Just seems staggering, now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! .
    It is not particularly surprising - it's how the extremes of left and right see their opponents each time in any case - Ever heard people talk of a socialist menace, or Tory scum?

    For my part I do not think Corbyn is evil, but I do think he would be appreciably worse as a PM than, say, Ed M and Gordon Brown, who I was perfectly relaxed about winning, and I don't think being a good campaigner alters that. Of course, the Tories are hardly painting an attractive reason to vote for them now either, so I might well end up voting LD next time, assuming they actually bother to attempt to win my vote next time (in contrast to their usual efforts they made no attempt this time, focusing successfully on a nearby seat instead).
    All very fair comments. Corbyn may well be a worse PM than Ed M or Gordon B but it's the policies that attract me, and I'm not sure he could be much worse than Theresa has been as PM
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 107
    On one side, the people and governments of the UK and Ireland, seeking to maintain the 'no borders, CTA and free trade' arrangement they have had inside and outside of European institutions for decades.

    On the other, the Commission, willing to threaten a hard border. They know full well that they can't settle the Irish border question without explicitly addressing UK-Ire (and by extension UK-EU) trade. That would expose their timetable as a nonsense, and would threaten the divorce bill.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,025
    edited November 2017

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.

    The problem is it's largely shared and 'liked' by those who are already sympathetic. The Tories efforts are pathetic but some of the most shared stuff (which is sometimes fake) is similar to the kind of news right-wing tabloids revel in - political correctness gone mad, feckless migrants etc. That includes actual tabloid stories that get shared, although The Sun initially lost ground due to its paywall they're now pumping their vast resources into online, and you can bet their stuff gets shared as often as a Momentum ad.

    Secondly, you'd be unwise to bank on social media staying the same way for ever. It's already evolved and mutated hugely in little over a decade - and all it takes is for Facebook to change its rules or an algorithm and it could be less effective. Plus people change how they use social media - I have a number of friends who have cut right back on Facebook and now only use it as a convenient address book and diary, preferring to stay in touch on Whatsapp for daily chat or gossip.

    And the marketing in politics is much less important than what you're selling. You don't have to work very hard to convince people the Tories are malicious, but those people will vote for them anyway if the alternative offered is unconvincing.

    https://www.facebook.com/MoggMemes/
    https://www.facebook.com/reemmemeswithagreatbritishtheme/
    https://www.facebook.com/MargaretThatcherMemes/

    are all worth a look - If I were at CCHQ I'd hire some of those chaps pronto. Give them a couple of grand every month and the technical support to produce Momentum rapid response style videos.


    @dixiedean
    That's the point though isn't it? Momentum didn't HIRE anyone. Therefore they can't be poached for a higher salary.
    It was done for free.
    If you are hired by CCHQ, you work for CCHQ, and are controlled, directed and at the whim of CCHQ.
    And if CCHQ are running a crap campaign, then it doesn't matter how good you are.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    Split, not confused.

    Confusing, perhaps?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament - which IMO is a rather unlikely outcome with Lab+Con >80% . Even if another election were called and the polls stayed as per opinium ^ right up to polling day, I'd still have NOM >6/4
    Scotland makes it almost certain to be another hung parliament as long as the SNP leads the polls there or until Labour gets a UK poll lead of 7%+, even if the Unionist parties did a bit better in June the SNP still deprived the Tories and Labour of 35 MPs north of the border.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    I am certain that Corbyn and more so McDonnell will not take labour to government. Indeed they are the brake holding back labour who should be out of sight in the polls
    I marvel at your certitude in the face of 'how the hell can we know?'

    Now if you had said "I am strongly of the opinion that...." I'd have said fair enough.

    :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    Pong said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    Split, not confused.

    Confusing, perhaps?
    Agreed- our poor MPs keep getting saddled with these hung parliaments, and the spectre of 'no mandate' being thrown at their faces for every policy.

    One day, perhaps next time, the public will give a party an unassailable majority again so they can do whatever the hell they want, as God intended!
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    If Miliband's 12 point lead led to a Tory majority, what does Corbyn's 2 point lead suggest will happen.?

    And what part of his hard left programme could Corbyn implement in a hung parliament?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    I am certain that Corbyn and more so McDonnell will not take labour to government. Indeed they are the brake holding back labour who should be out of sight in the polls
    I marvel at your certitude in the face of 'how the hell can we know?'
    Only political pundits have that level of certitude - I sense a career opportunity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    Pong said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    Split, not confused.

    Confusing, perhaps?
    +1 for that. [Pedantry alert:] To talk of the British public as if it were a single sentient being is nonsensical.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    stevef said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    If Miliband's 12 point lead led to a Tory majority, what does Corbyn's 2 point lead suggest will happen.?

    Not necessarily a good result, admittedly. However I am predicting the lead to rise in the face of bad news and continued Tory chaos in the coming years, and until we know who will lead them into the next GE and how, it will be even harder to predict how they will do up against Corbyn or a Corbynesque fresh face. They might perform better than Ed M, even if they never get the same lead in opposition, if they can rise in the right places.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Pong said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    Split, not confused.

    Confusing, perhaps?
    +1 for that. [Pedantry alert:] To talk of the British public as if it were a single sentient being is nonsensical.
    Indeed. I prefer to think of it as a tangled rat king; pulling in a hundred different directions, and scratching the hell out of each other to little effect.
  • kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    I am certain that Corbyn and more so McDonnell will not take labour to government. Indeed they are the brake holding back labour who should be out of sight in the polls
    I marvel at your certitude in the face of 'how the hell can we know?'

    Now if you had said "I am strongly of the opinion that...." I'd have said fair enough.

    :lol:
    Fair comment but nothing can convince me a hard left labour party will gain power sufficient to enact their socialist nonsense. I remember Kinnock driving them out of labour and if he rejected them how can any moderate labour supporter not see the direct threat to the UK of a marxist/ trade union cabal in no 10
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    stevef said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    If Miliband's 12 point lead led to a Tory majority, what does Corbyn's 2 point lead suggest will happen.?

    And what part of his hard left programme could Corbyn implement in a hung parliament?
    You could equally have questioned what Corbyn's 20 pt deficit ahead of GE17 suggested about the outcome. Answer sweet FA.

    And re Corbyn's 'hard left' programme in the event of a hung parliament - quite a lot of the Labour manifesto could be implemented with, say, SNP and LD support. After all the Tories tend to adopt Labour policies a few years down the road! :smile:
  • Seems very quiet on the news front this evening. No more stories of mps behaving badly or royals investing in bright house?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,769
    Drutt said:

    On one side, the people and governments of the UK and Ireland, seeking to maintain the 'no borders, CTA and free trade' arrangement they have had inside and outside of European institutions for decades.

    On the other, the Commission, willing to threaten a hard border. They know full well that they can't settle the Irish border question without explicitly addressing UK-Ire (and by extension UK-EU) trade. That would expose their timetable as a nonsense, and would threaten the divorce bill.
    Sheer fantasy. Read this for a better account of Ireland and the EU’s position:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1117/920981-long-read-brexit/
  • stevef said:

    kle4 said:

    Pong said:

    stevef said:

    Again just a 2 point lead for Labour (compared to the 12 points lead by Miliband).If Labour cant be way ahead now it never will be. It all points to disaster for Corbyn in 2022

    It points to another hung parliament
    When will the british public stop being so bloody confused?!
    If Miliband's 12 point lead led to a Tory majority, what does Corbyn's 2 point lead suggest will happen.?

    And what part of his hard left programme could Corbyn implement in a hung parliament?
    So hard left that the Tories keep pinching chunks of it...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,650
    edited November 2017

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    I am certain that Corbyn and more so McDonnell will not take labour to government. Indeed they are the brake holding back labour who should be out of sight in the polls
    I marvel at your certitude in the face of 'how the hell can we know?'

    Now if you had said "I am strongly of the opinion that...." I'd have said fair enough.

    :lol:
    Fair comment but nothing can convince me a hard left labour party will gain power sufficient to enact their socialist nonsense. I remember Kinnock driving them out of labour and if he rejected them how can any moderate labour supporter not see the direct threat to the UK of a marxist/ trade union cabal in no 10
    Just out of interest, what part of the Labour manifesto do you think is 'socialist nonsense' or 'marxist' Big_G?
  • Sunday paper headlines are bland - no sex or tax haven scandals

    In fact not much on the budget other than speculation

    Makes a change
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Sunday paper headlines are bland - no sex or tax haven scandals

    In fact not much on the budget other than speculation

    Makes a change

    Just a question which inconsequential budget proposal will get the most ridiculous blowback (and how the Tories give up on it), or whether something serious will actually get the praise/criticism.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900
    dixiedean said:



    That's the point though isn't it? Momentum didn't HIRE anyone. Therefore they can't be poached for a higher salary.
    It was done for free.
    If you are hired by CCHQ, you work for CCHQ, and are controlled, directed and at the whim of CCHQ.
    And if CCHQ are running a crap campaign, then it doesn't matter how good you are.

    That's my point - instead of engaging a mega-expensive ad agency who probably laugh at them behind their backs, the Tories should seek out a few kids who are already sympathetic to their cause and motivated enough to create fan pages like these. Then, give them the money and technical support to produce higher quality content.

    You think the Momentum stuff is paid for by farts and thin air? They are committed volunteers, but there is money behind it.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,041
    dixiedean said:

    nielh said:

    FPT
    I suggest that you 'like' Momentum on Facebook and just watch the stuff they are coming out with.
    The videos are truly brilliant. Absolutely devastating for the tories. They have, in the space of a year or so, made all the running with the under 30's. They depict the tories as lying, greedy, hypocritical, selfish scumbags and the cause of all the nations ills. This may be unfair and untrue. But it is only what Lynton Crosby did to Ed Milliband two and a half years ago through his own mastery of conventional media and targetted adverts on Facebook.
    The world has turned upside down in the space of 24 months and it is now the tories who are in a hopeless predicament.

    Would add, though, that FB is very much an older demographic. It is not just under 30's sharing this stuff.
    The days of right-wing newspapers pumping out endless pro-Tory propaganda unchallenged is over.
    They will have to think of more creative ways of getting their message across.
    Yeah, thats the problem. It isn't just the under 30's, its a large chunk of those in their 30's, 40's, even in their 50's and 60's. But the point is that it the labour party who are doing the running with the alienated youths, who are no longer cynical and apathetic. They have the momentum. (small m)
  • Sunday paper headlines are bland - no sex or tax haven scandals

    In fact not much on the budget other than speculation

    Makes a change

    apparently spreadsheet Phil has written in the sun about the budget making the uk a good place to develop self driving vehicles...I am not sure he has thought through the message with the readership demographics.
  • kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    I still don't understand why the LDs are so low, and why their former supporters would be attracted by Corbyn and McDonnell.

    That would depend, I think, on how many were genuinely centrist (albeit more centre left than right) and how many were mostly in it for the anti-Toryness and Lab was not the main left party previously. Half the party's support evaporated as soon as they went into coalition, so it seems fair to think much of that was the anti-Tory section, and they lost more support due to how things then developed over the next 5 years. With Labour unexpectedly doing well in 2017, there was no need for those who left to come back to the LDs.
    That about sums it up for me.

    What previously bothered me about Corbyn was his perceived ineptitude, not the marxist/Venezuela twaddle spouted by PB tories. But his performance in the GE and the quality of content in the Labour manifesto has swayed me. In fact, I still voted LD in the GE, mainly because I happened to know and like the LD candidate, but if there's an election tomorrow I'll be voting Labour.

    It amuses me how many Tories on PB and elsewhere see Corbyn as a special kind of evil, who will imperil the very survival of the country! Of course you're entitled to your opinions and I know they are often sincerely held but your blind spot with Corbyn, and more importantly the 'for the many,not the few' ethos he espouses will seriously damage the Tories future election prospects imho.
    I am certain that Corbyn and more so McDonnell will not take labour to government. Indeed they are the brake holding back labour who should be out of sight in the polls
    I marvel at your certitude in the face of 'how the hell can we know?'

    Now if you had said "I am strongly of the opinion that...." I'd have said fair enough.

    :lol:
    Fair comment but nothing can convince me a hard left labour party will gain power sufficient to enact their socialist nonsense. I remember Kinnock driving them out of labour and if he rejected them how can any moderate labour supporter not see the direct threat to the UK of a marxist/ trade union cabal in no 10
    Just out of interest, what part of the Labour manifest do you think is 'socialist nonsense' or 'marxist' Big_G?
    Large scale nationalisation, unfetered spending on public sector with huge promises on pay, exchange controls, large corporate tax increases, over spending by 500 billion, unions in no 10, as a stsrter
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 35,249
    kle4 said:

    I don't quite get the level of outrage - the ROI are on the other side of the negotiations. Yes, they are still our friends and neighbours

    I am just guessing here, but when Alison McGovern says "family", she actually means family. Aunts, uncles, cousins and the like...
  • kle4 said:

    Sunday paper headlines are bland - no sex or tax haven scandals

    In fact not much on the budget other than speculation

    Makes a change

    Just a question which inconsequential budget proposal will get the most ridiculous blowback (and how the Tories give up on it), or whether something serious will actually get the praise/criticism.
    Hasn’t it already been briefed...the take away tray tax...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:
    The ST are taking the p*ss rolling with that photo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't quite get the level of outrage - the ROI are on the other side of the negotiations. Yes, they are still our friends and neighbours

    I am just guessing here, but when Alison McGovern says "family", she actually means family. Aunts, uncles, cousins and the like...
    Yes, but as I noted, there will be many people with very close ties to both sides but Hanaan was obviously referring to negotiation between states, and yet while his complaining about people backing the other side would seem more worthy of comment, replies on her tweet were focused merely on use of that phrase 'the other side', which is completely accurate for a negotiation between states.

    People cannot refer to 'the other side' because there will be many people who have connections with both? Because that's what the people responding the tweet seem to be suggesting with the outrage.

    Which seems to me to be outrage at the wrong part, and being unnecessarily literal. The implication of being a traitor etc, that is something to be outraged at, but that tweet and reaction is making it personal about family, which is not something someone can reasonably prepare for.

    It distracts from what might be reasonable criticism, in other words; both sides may be family to her, literally, but other people cannot be expected to debate the issue assuming every personal circumstance about anyone who might read it.
  • I am not sure it is a budget unless the chancellor promises to build 250-300k homes a year...
This discussion has been closed.