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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deal or no deal

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deal or no deal

Ladbrokes have a market up on a few Brexit related markets, out of these three I’m quite keen to take the 6/4 on there being no Brexit deal being agreed before the 1st of April 2019.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 779
    edited November 2017
    Yes agree the 6/4 is good, although the risk is that the withdrawal agreement is skimpy and commits a further deal on formal trade at end of transition, but still counts as a withdrawal agreement for the purposes of this market.

    A50 extension looks to me the most plausible get-out mechanism from here, so i wouldn't touch the 2nd referendum at 5/1.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 779
    First among 27 equals! That's what I call a good deal.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419
    So just to be clear - "deal" here does not require approval of the EU Parliament?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,511
    edited November 2017
    The governments strategy has less credibility than a contestant on Noel's TV show with a 'system'.

    We would be better off if the government was opening various deals at random.
  • So just to be clear - "deal" here does not require approval of the EU Parliament?

    That is clear, it also doesn't require the approval of our Parliament either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    edited November 2017
    Fifth like Boris

    To qualify as a deal it has to be agreed by the Uk and EU, but do all these steps have to be completed before the date to satisfy the bet? From the wording I would assume yes. So a deal secured before the date but ratified/confirmed afterwards is a 'no deal in time' outcome?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 17,291
    edited November 2017
    I think TSE is misreading this. The key bit is the definition of a deal as 'A withdrawal agreement under Article 50(2)'. That is highly likely, unless talks break down in total acrimony (possible, but disastrous for both sides). That doesn't mean that everything will be decided or that exact nature of the long-term relationship will be clear; no doubt the exit deal will contain a lot of fudge. But it is likely to exist. I'd want quite a bit more than 6/4 on a total crash-out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    Dadge said:

    MaxPB said:

    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    I know he’s an expert and he’s no Willie Walsh but still...

    You think that we wouldn't come to an agreement that our standards for aerospace parts matches (via ISO) that of the EU?

    The EU nations are not going to cut their own balls off to please the commission.
    That’s pretty much every Boeing and every Airbus flying, plus Bombardier and many more. Are the EU so determined to make Brexit Hell for Britain, that they’re willing to completely undermine their reputation with every other country on Earth?
    Either the UK does a Norway, or the Airbus wings will move from Broughton to Toulouse.
    And all of the existing planes that have UK made components (basically every single plane in the world)?
    Flying will get more expensive.

    I know the situation is more extreme for aerospace than for most other industries, but other industries do have similar issues, and all will have to deal with the new border. Either the UK leaves the EU but pays to effectively stay in, or all sorts of businesses will drift overseas.
    Or more likely some rubber stamping will take place and the CAA will get some kind of equivalency.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,401

    I think TSE is misreading this. The key bit is the definition of a deal as 'A withdrawal agreement under Article 50(2)'. That is highly likely, unless talks break down in total acrimony (possible, but disastrous for both sides). That doesn't mean that everything will be decided; no doubt the exit deal will contain a lot of fudge. But it is likely to exist. I'd want quite a bit more than 6/4 on a total crash-out.

    Agreed. Leaving without an Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement is highly unlikely. Even the "No deal" Deal nonsense is a Withdrawal Agreement. And we will probably agree the €50 billion, or whatever.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,125
    FPT Considering the international basis of the aerospace business, I sincerely hope that no-one with a vested interest in that business was daft enough to vote for Brexit. Unpicking the arrangements that have built up over the last 40 years will take years. If any of the firms survive that long.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,401
    Does the first bet pay out if a Withdrawal Agreement is delayed beyond 1st April 2019? That's more likely than leaving without any deal at all.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    On topic - I'd need to know what "no deal" entails. There are loads of types of no deal, if it means absolutely no agreements on anything with the EU and them trying to acrimoniously block our accession to the WTO then I'd want a lot more than what is on offer, if it is just an agreed "no deal" but still tying up a lot of loose ends and doing the main administration work with the EU to facilitate some kind of future trade deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419
    "No deal" requires a level of flouncing fuckwittery that only a supra-national organisation unnaccountable to it peoples could ever countenance.

    Oh.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 636
    Curse of the new thread
    Pro_Rata said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our public finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    Question: Does the WTO principle of non discrimination apply within FTA deals or only for base WTO rules? In other words, could an FTA provide legal cover for treating the Irish land border differently to the channel border, even without any formal customs union?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    FPT
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    Even the fanatics are peppering their posts with qualifications nowadays, like "in the long term", when talking about the upside. Even if they are right (and the explanations as to how this upside might arise always seem rather hazy), Corbyn will probably be in power on the back of a counter-reaction to the short term downside by then, rendering future predictions of sunlight and high ground somewhat brave.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 18,066
    edited November 2017
    I'm not betting on such markets because of definitional concerns. I'm in the "no deal" camp, but "no deal" could include pretty minimal deals that would put me the wrong side of the line for a bet.

    I'm more comfortable betting on the exit date. Betting on Betfair's market on the Brexit date must be the best value bet out there at the moment. I topped up at 2.36 this morning - this must be something more like a 1/4 shot at present.
  • Why is 6/4 good when betfair has Jan-Mar 19 at 2.38 to 2.46 so implied odds of just over 40%?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419
    Pro_Rata said:

    Curse of the new thread

    Pro_Rata said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our public finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    Question: Does the WTO principle of non discrimination apply within FTA deals or only for base WTO rules? In other words, could an FTA provide legal cover for treating the Irish land border differently to the channel border, even without any formal customs union?
    These are the issues that some tame brains need to be exploring. Ireland is going to require some exceptions to the exisiting order. I can see there being a series of "temporary" measures that somehow, nobody ever quite gets round to ending...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,098

    I'm not betting on such markets because of definitional concerns. I'm in the "no deal" camp, but "no deal" could include pretty minimal deals that would put me the wrong side of the line for a bet.

    I'm more comfortable betting on the exit date. Betting on Betfair's market on the Brexit date must be the best value bet out there at the moment. I topped up at 2.38 this morning - this must be something more like a 1/4 shot at present.

    Not in this market myself, but this feels like one of those where all the chatter is about the less likely probability of the date being extended/missed because the deadline being hit with a boring deal won't sell papers.

    Not massively dissimiliar to will X* survive - the answer is generally they'll keep going.

    X may or may not be in my avatar right now
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited November 2017
    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,098

    Pro_Rata said:

    Curse of the new thread

    Pro_Rata said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our public finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    Question: Does the WTO principle of non discrimination apply within FTA deals or only for base WTO rules? In other words, could an FTA provide legal cover for treating the Irish land border differently to the channel border, even without any formal customs union?
    These are the issues that some tame brains need to be exploring. Ireland is going to require some exceptions to the exisiting order. I can see there being a series of "temporary" measures that somehow, nobody ever quite gets round to ending...
    Ireland has a unique current & historical relationship with the UK. The EU needs to recognise this I think.
  • "No deal" requires a level of flouncing fuckwittery that only a supra-national organisation unnaccountable to it peoples could ever countenance.

    Oh.

    The Conservative Party are by no means supra-national and they are accountable to the electorate every five years, but the remainder of your analysis of them is spot-on!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953
    Pulpstar said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Curse of the new thread

    Pro_Rata said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our public finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    Question: Does the WTO principle of non discrimination apply within FTA deals or only for base WTO rules? In other words, could an FTA provide legal cover for treating the Irish land border differently to the channel border, even without any formal customs union?
    These are the issues that some tame brains need to be exploring. Ireland is going to require some exceptions to the exisiting order. I can see there being a series of "temporary" measures that somehow, nobody ever quite gets round to ending...
    Ireland has a unique current & historical relationship with the UK. The EU needs to recognise this I think.
    It is. That's why it's standing behind Ireland's position.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,890

    "No deal" requires a level of flouncing fuckwittery that only a supra-national organisation unnaccountable to it peoples could ever countenance.

    Or Tezza
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,401
    Pulpstar said:

    Ireland has a unique current & historical relationship with the UK. The EU needs to recognise this I think.

    The Irish government has done some very good research and positioning on Brexit. Much better than our lot.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited November 2017

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Well if they head off to stokes croft area of town it is more than likely to happen.

    An even more bonkers one was effectively charge the university for council tax on student accommodation. I mean the uni already is more elitist than oxbridge, sticking another £3k on the cost of a room per year will really help.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    Even the fanatics are peppering their posts with qualifications nowadays, like "in the long term", when talking about the upside. Even if they are right (and the explanations as to how this upside might arise always seem rather hazy), Corbyn will probably be in power on the back of a counter-reaction to the short term downside by then, rendering future predictions of sunlight and high ground somewhat brave.
    At the moment, the economic news is pretty good, but of course, Brexit has not yet taken place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    With the growth in international travel I expect ways for government to make some sort of levy on tourists will become increasingly common worldwide. Arguably initiatives such as the US ESTA and the threatened EU equivalent are in this category, the security benefits being somewhat unclear.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    Even the fanatics are peppering their posts with qualifications nowadays, like "in the long term", when talking about the upside. Even if they are right (and the explanations as to how this upside might arise always seem rather hazy), Corbyn will probably be in power on the back of a counter-reaction to the short term downside by then, rendering future predictions of sunlight and high ground somewhat brave.
    At the moment, the economic news is pretty good, but of course, Brexit has not yet taken place.
    I agree that it is simply too early to say.

    My point was simply that the magnitude of the promised benefits seems to be shrinking and the timescale seems to be receding, even amongst true believers.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249
    IanB2 said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    With the growth in international travel I expect ways for government to make some sort of levy on tourists will become increasingly common worldwide. Arguably initiatives such as the US ESTA and the threatened EU equivalent are in this category, the security benefits being somewhat unclear.
    There is/was a nominal tax on airline travel to fund Global Fund against Aids, TB and Malaria in a lot of coutnries I think.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,528
    edited November 2017

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    They said that income tax rises would only be for those on more than £80k a year - which after five years of inflation, devaluation and union pressure under Corbyn’s Venezuelanomics will probably be somewhere around the minimum wage... ;)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 779

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 1,805
    I've had my fill of Brexit.It's like watching a car crash in slow motion and I expect the worst-the 1,000s of job losses showing much of what was derided as Project Fear was in fact real except for the hubris of George Osborne who did more than most to win it for Leave by his conssitency over-egging the pudding.
    It's food prices,not Brexit,that's the sublect of my bus stop conversations,as well as the law and rules regarding the vapourisation of nicotine within bus shelters.I'm all Brexited out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-food-prices-la-nina-coffee-cocoa-brexit-inflation

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,528
    tpfkar said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
    Don’t most major cities do the same, a small tax on hotel rooms? Almost everywhere I stay - even Dubai - has tourist taxes of one sort or another.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,098

    I've had my fill of Brexit.It's like watching a car crash in slow motion and I expect the worst-the 1,000s of job losses showing much of what was derided as Project Fear was in fact real except for the hubris of George Osborne who did more than most to win it for Leave by his conssitency over-egging the pudding.
    It's food prices,not Brexit,that's the sublect of my bus stop conversations,as well as the law and rules regarding the vapourisation of nicotine within bus shelters.I'm all Brexited out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-food-prices-la-nina-coffee-cocoa-brexit-inflation

    Whats going on with butter recently. Seems to have skyrocketed
  • Sandpit said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    They said that income tax rises would only be for those on more than £80k a year - which after five years of inflation, devaluation and union pressure under Corbyn’s Venezuelanomics will probably be somewhere around the minimum wage... ;)
    It's tomorrow's budget we need to worry about.
  • tpfkar said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
    Airbnb has driven a hole straight through this method.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    Pulpstar said:

    I've had my fill of Brexit.It's like watching a car crash in slow motion and I expect the worst-the 1,000s of job losses showing much of what was derided as Project Fear was in fact real except for the hubris of George Osborne who did more than most to win it for Leave by his conssitency over-egging the pudding.
    It's food prices,not Brexit,that's the sublect of my bus stop conversations,as well as the law and rules regarding the vapourisation of nicotine within bus shelters.I'm all Brexited out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-food-prices-la-nina-coffee-cocoa-brexit-inflation

    Whats going on with butter recently. Seems to have skyrocketed
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/07/butter-price-all-time-high-dairy-production-curdles
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419
    tpfkar said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
    A national scheme is different to one proposed for Bristol though...
  • Pulpstar said:

    I've had my fill of Brexit.It's like watching a car crash in slow motion and I expect the worst-the 1,000s of job losses showing much of what was derided as Project Fear was in fact real except for the hubris of George Osborne who did more than most to win it for Leave by his conssitency over-egging the pudding.
    It's food prices,not Brexit,that's the sublect of my bus stop conversations,as well as the law and rules regarding the vapourisation of nicotine within bus shelters.I'm all Brexited out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-food-prices-la-nina-coffee-cocoa-brexit-inflation

    Whats going on with butter recently. Seems to have skyrocketed
    Global issue....

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/11/butter-prices-rise-to-record-high.html
  • "No deal" requires a level of flouncing fuckwittery that only a supra-national organisation unnaccountable to it peoples could ever countenance.

    Oh.

    Doesn't it take two sides to agree a deal?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278

    Sandpit said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    They said that income tax rises would only be for those on more than £80k a year - which after five years of inflation, devaluation and union pressure under Corbyn’s Venezuelanomics will probably be somewhere around the minimum wage... ;)
    It's tomorrow's budget we need to worry about.
    Tomorrow's budget is absolutely critical to the credibility of this government, far more than many Tories appear to realise. If they aren't willing (or able) to be bold in addressing the gross iniquity of the current economic settlement, they will simply be providing kindling for the fire Corbyn's Labour wants to set alight in a few years' time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417

    tpfkar said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
    Airbnb has driven a hole straight through this method.
    It won't be long until Airbnb becomes the collection agent for any tourist taxes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited November 2017
    Six Syrian 'ISIS plotters' are arrested in Germany over plan to 'attack Christmas market on the anniversary of Berlin atrocity.

    The six suspects were identified as Syrian citizens aged between 20 and 28 who arrived in Germany as asylum-seekers between December 2014 and September 2015. Their names were withheld under strict German privacy laws.

    The men, who are allegedly members of ISIS, are accused of 'having prepared an attack with weapons and explosives on a public target in Germany.'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5103289/ISIS-plotters-held-Germany-market-attack-plan.html
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 270
    There's good news that the EBA is moving to Paris and not Frankfurt or Dublin, who are better placed candidates to attract finance jobs from London.
  • MaxPB said:

    tpfkar said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
    Airbnb has driven a hole straight through this method.
    It won't be long until Airbnb becomes the collection agent for any tourist taxes.
    I can just see the sprouting up of hotels just on the outskirts of Bristols...
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 270
    Sandpit said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    They said that income tax rises would only be for those on more than £80k a year - which after five years of inflation, devaluation and union pressure under Corbyn’s Venezuelanomics will probably be somewhere around the minimum wage... ;)
    That will be their position until it doesn't work our economically, and then they'll blame bankers and the rich for not doing their share and requiring more tax rises on the middle.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited November 2017

    MaxPB said:

    tpfkar said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
    Airbnb has driven a hole straight through this method.
    It won't be long until Airbnb becomes the collection agent for any tourist taxes.
    I can just see the sprouting up of hotels just on the outskirts of Bristols...
    When the Welsh implement their booze tax, they can combine booze outlet and hotels on the same site.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 270
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    Even the fanatics are peppering their posts with qualifications nowadays, like "in the long term", when talking about the upside. Even if they are right (and the explanations as to how this upside might arise always seem rather hazy), Corbyn will probably be in power on the back of a counter-reaction to the short term downside by then, rendering future predictions of sunlight and high ground somewhat brave.
    At the moment, the economic news is pretty good, but of course, Brexit has not yet taken place.
    I agree that it is simply too early to say.

    My point was simply that the magnitude of the promised benefits seems to be shrinking and the timescale seems to be receding, even amongst true believers.
    I would say the economy has performed far closer to the Leave campaign's predictions to the Remain campaign's predictions to date.

    I have also asked Remain voters predicting "the economy will go off a cliff" to quantify what that means in terms of length of recession or GDP reduction of unemployment rate. So far not a single person will put a stake in the ground. I am guessing because they know it won't be that bad and don't want to look silly with a falsifiable prediction or to admit we will have a mild slowdown at worse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419

    "No deal" requires a level of flouncing fuckwittery that only a supra-national organisation unnaccountable to it peoples could ever countenance.

    Oh.

    Doesn't it take two sides to agree a deal?
    It only takes one to block one....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    Even the fanatics are peppering their posts with qualifications nowadays, like "in the long term", when talking about the upside. Even if they are right (and the explanations as to how this upside might arise always seem rather hazy), Corbyn will probably be in power on the back of a counter-reaction to the short term downside by then, rendering future predictions of sunlight and high ground somewhat brave.
    At the moment, the economic news is pretty good, but of course, Brexit has not yet taken place.
    I agree that it is simply too early to say.

    My point was simply that the magnitude of the promised benefits seems to be shrinking and the timescale seems to be receding, even amongst true believers.
    I would say the economy has performed far closer to the Leave campaign's predictions to the Remain campaign's predictions to date.

    I have also asked Remain voters predicting "the economy will go off a cliff" to quantify what that means in terms of length of recession or GDP reduction of unemployment rate. So far not a single person will put a stake in the ground. I am guessing because they know it won't be that bad and don't want to look silly with a falsifiable prediction or to admit we will have a mild slowdown at worse.
    Patience remains a virtue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,528

    MaxPB said:

    tpfkar said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    Love the "tax on tourists" to Bristol. How is THAT going to work? Shame them for looking at all that heritage built on the profits of slavery? Or maybe there could just be an element of chance - have some of them robbed of all their possessions at gunpoint, by a Momentum member dressed as a highwayman perhaps?
    Simpler than you might imagine. We paid the tourist tax last time we were in Switzerland. A couple of Swiss Francs per person per night, collected by the accommodation provider.

    Whether it's a good idea is another point, but at those levels we didn't really have a problem with it.
    Airbnb has driven a hole straight through this method.
    It won't be long until Airbnb becomes the collection agent for any tourist taxes.
    I can just see the sprouting up of hotels just on the outskirts of Bristols...
    Lots of old seaside hotels in Clevedon and Weston that could be refurbished ;)
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 270
    IanB2 said:

    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    At the moment, the economic news is pretty good, but of course, Brexit has not yet taken place.
    I agree that it is simply too early to say.

    My point was simply that the magnitude of the promised benefits seems to be shrinking and the timescale seems to be receding, even amongst true believers.
    I would say the economy has performed far closer to the Leave campaign's predictions to the Remain campaign's predictions to date.

    I have also asked Remain voters predicting "the economy will go off a cliff" to quantify what that means in terms of length of recession or GDP reduction of unemployment rate. So far not a single person will put a stake in the ground. I am guessing because they know it won't be that bad and don't want to look silly with a falsifiable prediction or to admit we will have a mild slowdown at worse.
    Patience remains a virtue.
    So when do you think the negative effects will hit and how bad will it be? 6% unemployment? 8%? 10%?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    Elliot said:

    Sandpit said:

    Graduates from the Jezza-onomics course have a fully cost suggestion for progressive council tax reform...

    £11k a year council tax for the 15,000 households in Bristol and up to 5% increase for the rest.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/increase-council-tax-200-richest-806346

    Anybody really believe a jezza/ mcmao government would be limiting those tax rises to only those on big bucks?

    They said that income tax rises would only be for those on more than £80k a year - which after five years of inflation, devaluation and union pressure under Corbyn’s Venezuelanomics will probably be somewhere around the minimum wage... ;)
    That will be their position until it doesn't work our economically, and then they'll blame bankers and the rich for not doing their share and requiring more tax rises on the middle.
    The picture I posted yesterday seems apt.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of un the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    Even the fanatics are peppering their posts with qualifications nowadays, like "in the long term", when talking about the upside. Even if they are right (and the explanations as to how this upside might arise always seem rather hazy), Corbyn will probably be in power on the back of a counter-reaction to the short term downside by then, rendering future predictions of sunlight and high ground somewhat brave.
    At the moment, the economic news is pretty good, but of course, Brexit has not yet taken place.
    I agree that it is simply too early to say.

    My point was simply that the magnitude of the promised benefits seems to be shrinking and the timescale seems to be receding, even amongst true believers.
    I would say the economy has performed far closer to the Leave campaign's predictions to the Remain campaign's predictions to date.

    I have also asked Remain voters predicting "the economy will go off a cliff" to quantify what that means in terms of length of recession or GDP reduction of unemployment rate. So far not a single person will put a stake in the ground. I am guessing because they know it won't be that bad and don't want to look silly with a falsifiable prediction or to admit we will have a mild slowdown at worse.
    Well as we know in one sense the economy did go off a cliff on the day after the vote.

    Other than that most credible forecasts simply had wealth foregone. Such as the famous £4,300 per household by 2030.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,617
    TOPPING said:
    BURN THEM
  • Elliot said:

    I have also asked Remain voters predicting "the economy will go off a cliff" to quantify what that means in terms of length of recession or GDP reduction of unemployment rate. So far not a single person will put a stake in the ground. I am guessing because they know it won't be that bad and don't want to look silly with a falsifiable prediction or to admit we will have a mild slowdown at worse.

    I quantified it, admittedly rather roughly, before the referendum as:

    1. 0% chance of the economy benefiting (there simply isn't any mechanism)

    2. 10% chance of little discernible effect, assuming a smooth transition to a favourable trade deal

    3. 10% chance of a downturn comparable to that we experienced following the global financial crisis of 2007/8

    4. 80% chance of a significant but not disastrous effect on growth compared with our peers - say between 1% and 2% less growth over several years.

    My view now is not changed very much, except that I think we can rule out the second possibility now, and the chance of a really serious downturn is looking rather higher, given the lack of progress in the negotiations and the political chaos here.

    If you factor in the Corbyn effect, which is a direct effect of the referendum result, probably now something like 35% scenario 3 and 65% scenario 4.
  • It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    At the moment, the economic news is pretty good, but of course, Brexit has not yet taken place.
    I agree that it is simply too early to say.

    My point was simply that the magnitude of the promised benefits seems to be shrinking and the timescale seems to be receding, even amongst true believers.
    I would say the economy has performed far closer to the Leave campaign's predictions to the Remain campaign's predictions to date.

    I have also asked Remain voters predicting "the economy will go off a cliff" to quantify what that means in terms of length of recession or GDP reduction of unemployment rate. So far not a single person will put a stake in the ground. I am guessing because they know it won't be that bad and don't want to look silly with a falsifiable prediction or to admit we will have a mild slowdown at worse.
    Patience remains a virtue.
    So when do you think the negative effects will hit and how bad will it be? 6% unemployment? 8%? 10%?
    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    A reasonable idea for a bet but the time scale is a bit long for something that's quite short.
  • It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953
    MaxPB said:

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.

    And how is that working out? The UK has never been more feeble or insular in foreign policy, or looked less self-assured in international trade.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Better be inside the bloc pressing to make it less protectionalist, as Britain has being doing for so many years, than outside in the cold, p*ssing in the wind.

    Tories forget that almost all of the key EU acts went through under Mrs T, who despite all her personal convictions never suggested that we should leave.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417

    MaxPB said:

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.

    And how is that working out? The UK has never been more feeble or insular in foreign policy, or looked less self-assured in international trade.
    That's a reaction to rising power in the east and it is true of all western nations, the US is struggling with the same problem, for example.

    The EU isn't the answer to any of those questions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,528

    It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
    Remember for how long Boris and TCO were basically both evens for next leader?

    Remember before that what odds Cameron was when Howard stood down in 2005?

    Your position is probably okay.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.

    Have I got that right?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,528
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Absolutely!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Better be inside the bloc pressing to make it less protectionalist, as Britain has being doing for so many years, than outside in the cold, p*ssing in the wind.

    Tories forget that almost all of the key EU acts went through under Mrs T, who despite all her personal convictions never suggested that we should leave.
    We tried that for 40 years. It didn't work.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Better be inside the bloc pressing to make it less protectionalist, as Britain has being doing for so many years, than outside in the cold, p*ssing in the wind.

    Tories forget that almost all of the key EU acts went through under Mrs T, who despite all her personal convictions never suggested that we should leave.
    We tried that for 40 years. It didn't work.
    I mean are we talking economically speaking here? What has not worked?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.

    Have I got that right?
    Again, please don't put words in my mouth. People voted for different reasons, one of those was wanting to get out of a protectionist, inward looking bloc. If you can't see that then it's not my problem and it's also not worth continuing this conversation given how far apart we are on the issue of Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Better be inside the bloc pressing to make it less protectionalist, as Britain has being doing for so many years, than outside in the cold, p*ssing in the wind.

    Tories forget that almost all of the key EU acts went through under Mrs T, who despite all her personal convictions never suggested that we should leave.
    We tried that for 40 years. It didn't work.
    In that time we achieved:

    - The completion of the single market within the EU
    - The implementation of zero-tariff trade for all least developed countries
    - The creation of the WTO
    - The signing of a range of FTAs to go deeper than the already liberalised multilateral trade environment (more than the USA)

    It worked, and continues to work.
  • "No deal" requires a level of flouncing fuckwittery that only a supra-national organisation unnaccountable to it peoples could ever countenance.

    Oh.

    Doesn't it take two sides to agree a deal?
    It only takes one to block one....
    True and 'No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal', so guess which side is most likely to.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,928
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    "The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."

    Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.

    Have I got that right?
    Again, please don't put words in my mouth. People voted for different reasons, one of those was wanting to get out of a protectionist, inward looking bloc. If you can't see that then it's not my problem and it's also not worth continuing this conversation given how far apart we are on the issue of Brexit.
    Some voted to get out of an inward-looking bloc. Some voted to get out of an expansionist bloc...

    You takes your choice, and you pays your money.
  • It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
    I'm also laying Jacob Rees-Mogg, though not to Guido levels (just about exactly £1000 for me). He's one of my three big losers for next Prime Minister / next Conservative leader, Jeremy Corbyn and Philip Hammond being the other two.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,890
    @AP: BREAKING: Zimbabwe Parliament speaker says Mugabe has resigned, has received letter from him.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,057
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Better be inside the bloc pressing to make it less protectionalist, as Britain has being doing for so many years, than outside in the cold, p*ssing in the wind.

    Tories forget that almost all of the key EU acts went through under Mrs T, who despite all her personal convictions never suggested that we should leave.
    Has the EU become less protectionist and inward looking since the UK joined? Doesn't look like it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.

    Have I got that right?
    Again, please don't put words in my mouth. People voted for different reasons, one of those was wanting to get out of a protectionist, inward looking bloc. If you can't see that then it's not my problem and it's also not worth continuing this conversation given how far apart we are on the issue of Brexit.
    Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.

    Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.

    It's a funny old world, isn't it.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,098

    It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
    I'm also laying Jacob Rees-Mogg, though not to Guido levels (just about exactly £1000 for me). He's one of my three big losers for next Prime Minister / next Conservative leader, Jeremy Corbyn and Philip Hammond being the other two.
    Careful :) https://order-order.com/2015/07/17/conflicted-over-corbyn/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    "The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."

    Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
    And American chemical chicken, plastic cheese, eggs that need to be refrigerated, and chocolate made from already stale milk.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948

    "No deal" requires a level of flouncing fuckwittery that only a supra-national organisation unnaccountable to it peoples could ever countenance...

    I think that's quite unfair.
    Our government is entirely capable of countenancing said fuckwittery.
  • Pulpstar said:

    It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
    I'm also laying Jacob Rees-Mogg, though not to Guido levels (just about exactly £1000 for me). He's one of my three big losers for next Prime Minister / next Conservative leader, Jeremy Corbyn and Philip Hammond being the other two.
    Careful :) https://order-order.com/2015/07/17/conflicted-over-corbyn/
    Oh I didn't lay him on THAT market.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953
    edited November 2017
    Tim_B said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Better be inside the bloc pressing to make it less protectionalist, as Britain has being doing for so many years, than outside in the cold, p*ssing in the wind.

    Tories forget that almost all of the key EU acts went through under Mrs T, who despite all her personal convictions never suggested that we should leave.
    Has the EU become less protectionist and inward looking since the UK joined? Doesn't look like it.
    Compare this, nearly 20 years ago, when the EU gave tariff-free trade conditions to all LDCs: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-00-1034_en.htm

    With the position of the US, where around half of all imports from LDCs are still subject to tariffs: https://www.un.org/ldcportal/united-states-imports-from-ldcs/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419

    It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
    The Tory Party is going to make the Moggster leader, not for any sound reason other than to punish YOU for being the Osborne fan-boy.....

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    IanB2 said:

    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    "The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."

    Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
    And American chemical chicken, plastic cheese, eggs that need to be refrigerated, and chocolate made from already stale milk.
    Are the good people of Port Talbot going to be forced to buy plastic American cheese only from now on?!
  • It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
    The Tory Party is going to make the Moggster leader, not for any sound reason other than to punish YOU for being the Osborne fan-boy.....

    I’m a Cameron fan boy first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @AP: BREAKING: Zimbabwe Parliament speaker says Mugabe has resigned, has received letter from him.

    Foreign stamp on it? Somewhere sunny and accepts US dollars?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    "The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."

    Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
    And American chemical chicken, plastic cheese, eggs that need to be refrigerated, and chocolate made from already stale milk.
    Are the good people of Port Talbot going to be forced to buy plastic American cheese only from now on?!
    No, I agree. My post was simply a rant against the s**t you have to eat whenever I visit America.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,528
    Pulpstar said:

    It's a blue moon and Guido has posted a tweet that is worth paying attention to:

    Eesh, I've got the same betting position as Guido.

    Should I be worried that I've got big reds against the top three favourites for the Tory crown?
    I'm also laying Jacob Rees-Mogg, though not to Guido levels (just about exactly £1000 for me). He's one of my three big losers for next Prime Minister / next Conservative leader, Jeremy Corbyn and Philip Hammond being the other two.
    Careful :) https://order-order.com/2015/07/17/conflicted-over-corbyn/
    I hope he managed to undo that position!!

    The day the nominations closed for the Labour leadership was probably PB’s most profitable day outside of a GE or referendum. My only regret is that I put a tenner on him at 100/1 and not my whole damn paycheck!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited November 2017
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    JonathanD said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    "The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."

    Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
    And American chemical chicken, plastic cheese, eggs that need to be refrigerated, and chocolate made from already stale milk.
    Are the good people of Port Talbot going to be forced to buy plastic American cheese only from now on?!
    No, I agree. My post was simply a rant against the s**t you have to eat whenever I visit America.
    What nonsense. The choice of decent food in the US has expanded rapidly over the past 5-10 years.

    As with everything in the US, it is a place of two extremes. You get the utter garbage food and you get super high quality stuff.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,132
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.

    Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
    Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.

    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
    Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
    So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.

    Have I got that right?
    Again, please don't put words in my mouth. People voted for different reasons, one of those was wanting to get out of a protectionist, inward looking bloc. If you can't see that then it's not my problem and it's also not worth continuing this conversation given how far apart we are on the issue of Brexit.
    Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.

    Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.

    It's a funny old world, isn't it.


    Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.

    Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.

This discussion has been closed.