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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s budget buzzword bingo

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s budget buzzword bingo

Ladbrokes have put up their customary Budget buzzword bingo, I’m avoiding this market as nothing leaps out as value and I really don’t fancy contributing to the Ladbrokes Christmas bonus fund. Ladbrokes also have a market up on the colour of Philip Hammond’s tie, this is another market I’m going to avoid for the same reasons.

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 18,176
    Thirst.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    I’d be tempted by prosperity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    edited November 2017
    Bronze medal. Classic Shadsy’s Christmas Bonus Fund market. I’ll have a pound on Venezuela at 5/1.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,616
    edited November 2017
    Budget odds, for sure.

    How about we play a new game. Fantasy bookmaking.

    Who can paper-lay the buzzwords to generate the best return?

    I'll lay everything except for "brexit" - the odds on that are arguably generous IMO.

    So, I'm laying "northern powerhouse" for 2 units, "millenials" for 1 unit, "austerity" for 1/3rd of a unit, etc etc.

    Sums to 9.42 units. I recon i'll turn a decent paper profit on this one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    Wonderful slip of the tongue on Five Live. Trying to say, 'the budget may signal the end of austerity,' she said instead 'the budget may signal the end of the Chancellor!'
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,693
    The real reason why Robert Mugabe resigned yesterday (rather than waiting another two days to be removed by impeachment) is because he wanted to be available for "I'm A Celebrity - Get Me Out of Here".
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    Pong said:

    Budget odds, for sure.

    How about we play a new game. Fantasy bookmaking.

    Who can paper-lay the buzzwords to generate the best return?

    I'll lay everything except for "brexit" - the odds on that are arguably generous IMO.

    So, I'm laying 2 units on "northern powerhouse", 1 unit on "millenials," 1/3rd unit on "austerity," 1/8th unit on "dinosaur" etc etc.

    Sums to 9.42 units. I recon i'll turn a decent paper profit on this one.

    I think Brexit is poor value. People tend not to say it in formal speeches.
    They talk about Britain's exit from the EU/leaving the European Union.

    But what do I know!?
    Hammond may decide to reiterate the Brexit means Brexit mantra for a nice round of applause!

    Vs. your attempt I will lay all except prosperity, outward looking and Millenials.
  • ydoethur said:

    Wonderful slip of the tongue on Five Live. Trying to say, 'the budget may signal the end of austerity,' she said instead 'the budget may signal the end of the Chancellor!'

    Well, it might. If the budget goes badly, PP's 12/1 against Hammond being next minister to leave the cabinet might look generous.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,616
    edited November 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Budget odds, for sure.

    How about we play a new game. Fantasy bookmaking.

    Who can paper-lay the buzzwords to generate the best return?

    I'll lay everything except for "brexit" - the odds on that are arguably generous IMO.

    So, I'm laying 2 units on "northern powerhouse", 1 unit on "millenials," 1/3rd unit on "austerity," 1/8th unit on "dinosaur" etc etc.

    Sums to 9.42 units. I recon i'll turn a decent paper profit on this one.

    I think Brexit is poor value. People tend not to say it in formal speeches.
    They talk about Britain's exit from the EU/leaving the European Union.

    But what do I know!?
    Hammond may decide to reiterate the Brexit means Brexit mantra for a nice round of applause!

    Vs. your attempt I will lay all except prosperity, outward looking and Millenials.
    Good luck!

    Northern powerhouse might be worth backing, on second thoughts. Possibly.

    TM mentioned it in her cough speech - and I don't think hammond has completely given up on the idea. Hmm. No. Odds aren't attractive enough for me. I stick by my lay.

    Punters playing this market will pay for Ladbrokes xmas party.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    Pong said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Budget odds, for sure.

    How about we play a new game. Fantasy bookmaking.

    Who can paper-lay the buzzwords to generate the best return?

    I'll lay everything except for "brexit" - the odds on that are arguably generous IMO.

    So, I'm laying 2 units on "northern powerhouse", 1 unit on "millenials," 1/3rd unit on "austerity," 1/8th unit on "dinosaur" etc etc.

    Sums to 9.42 units. I recon i'll turn a decent paper profit on this one.

    I think Brexit is poor value. People tend not to say it in formal speeches.
    They talk about Britain's exit from the EU/leaving the European Union.

    But what do I know!?
    Hammond may decide to reiterate the Brexit means Brexit mantra for a nice round of applause!

    Vs. your attempt I will lay all except prosperity, outward looking and Millenials.
    Good luck!

    Northern powerhouse might be worth backing, on second thoughts. Possibly.

    TM mentioned it in her cough speech - and I don't think hammond has completely given up on the idea. Hmm. No. Odds aren't attractive enough for me. I stick by my lay.

    Punters playing this market will pay for Ladbrokes xmas party.
    Yes.
    Although from memory Ladbrokes did very poorly on Corbyn's speech didn't they?
    There were quite a few big payouts I think... magic money tree etc.
  • Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Budget odds, for sure.

    How about we play a new game. Fantasy bookmaking.

    Who can paper-lay the buzzwords to generate the best return?

    I'll lay everything except for "brexit" - the odds on that are arguably generous IMO.

    So, I'm laying 2 units on "northern powerhouse", 1 unit on "millenials," 1/3rd unit on "austerity," 1/8th unit on "dinosaur" etc etc.

    Sums to 9.42 units. I recon i'll turn a decent paper profit on this one.

    I think Brexit is poor value. People tend not to say it in formal speeches.
    They talk about Britain's exit from the EU/leaving the European Union.

    But what do I know!?
    Hammond may decide to reiterate the Brexit means Brexit mantra for a nice round of applause!

    Vs. your attempt I will lay all except prosperity, outward looking and Millenials.
    Good luck!

    Northern powerhouse might be worth backing, on second thoughts. Possibly.

    TM mentioned it in her cough speech - and I don't think hammond has completely given up on the idea. Hmm. No. Odds aren't attractive enough for me. I stick by my lay.

    Punters playing this market will pay for Ladbrokes xmas party.
    Yes.
    Although from memory Ladbrokes did very poorly on Corbyn's speech didn't they?
    There were quite a few big payouts I think... magic money tree etc.
    Yes, Shadsy lost money on that speech. To the point that one of Corbyn’s speech writers might have seen the market and thought he’d have a laugh. There’s a good reason these novelty bets get limited to small stakes.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    Sandpit said:



    Yes, Shadsy lost money on that speech. To the point that one of Corbyn’s speech writers might have seen the market and thought he’d have a laugh. There’s a good reason these novelty bets get limited to small stakes.

    Classic Corbyn - looking out for the man on the street and sticking one in the eye of big business!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,607

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,616
    edited November 2017
    philiph said:

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
    Isn't it Mcdonnell?

    AIUI, he used to deliver an alternative *proper labour* budget every year when Gordon Brown was chancellor.

    Everyone ignored him. But he has, at least, had a fair amount of practice. His response should be quite good.

    Edit: no you are correct.
  • I am surprised “the” isn’t the favourite. :-)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    philiph said:

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
    That’s the most difficult set piece speech of the year, by any politician. He’s got only a couple of hours for his team to read it, digest it and write a response. Last time from memory Corbyn didn’t even pretend to have read it and just went on a rant about the evil capitalists instead.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,616
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    philiph said:

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
    Isn't it Mcdonnell?

    AIUI, he used to deliver an alternative *proper labour* budget every year when Gordon Brown was chancellor.

    Everyone ignored him. But he has, at least, had a fair amount of practice. His response should be quite good.

    Edit: no you are correct.
    It's JC responding to Hammond. My memory is playing tricks.

    http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/check-and-approve-government-spending-and-taxation/the-budget-and-parliament/

    This is funky;

    "By tradition, the Chancellor, unlike Ministers at the despatch box at any other time of the year, may drink alcohol during the Budget Speech if they wish.

    Former Chancellor George Osborne chose to drink mineral water. Oher Chancellors have chosen mineral water (Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling), whisky (Kenneth Clarke), spritzer (Nigel Lawson), gin and tonic (Geoffrey Howe), brandy and water (Benjamin Disraeli) and sherry and beaten egg (William Ewart Gladstone)."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Of the longer odds, I fancy Marxist at 10/1. Hammond likes trolling the opposition.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    A fair comment.

    The problem is, I can just imagine Labour's response after six months in office:

    We did: sod all about tuition fees because despite what we said we don't care about you really, got rid of a huge number of graduate jobs, increased everyone's debts by 50%, and carried on with Brexit.

    But we did make housing affordable thanks to the banking collapse. Only thing is, to keep the economy alive at all we've had to nationalise it so you're never going to own a house anyway.

    And that, in a nutshell, is why Corbyn is still struggling to break through decisively in the polls. Not because this government is any good but because he would be considerably worse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited November 2017

    Of the longer odds, I fancy Marxist at 10/1. Hammond likes trolling the opposition.

    I thought Macdonnell was quite happy being called a Marxist?

    If Hammond really wanted to be naughty, he could say 'Fascist' instead with a long hard look at Emma Dent Coad. That would be trolling!

    Edit - autocorrect tried to change Hammond to 'hammock' - is my phone expecting a snooze fest?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
    That’s the most difficult set piece speech of the year, by any politician. He’s got only a couple of hours for his team to read it, digest it and write a response. Last time from memory Corbyn didn’t even pretend to have read it and just went on a rant about the evil capitalists instead.
    The general thrust of his response is relatively straightforward this time - the tweet that Alastair just posted below positions it clearly. We have big problems yet the budget just tinkers. Corbyn will be hampered by his position on the fence from saying anything about Brexit. Where he will need to think quickly is in responding to the expected 'big' initiative on housing, and in spotting if there are any aspects of the budget likely to unwravel over the next few days.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    philiph said:

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
    It will just be another review of his greatest hits. The actual substance of the budget won't get a mention. He could reply first and save time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    edited November 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
    That’s the most difficult set piece speech of the year, by any politician. He’s got only a couple of hours for his team to read it, digest it and write a response. Last time from memory Corbyn didn’t even pretend to have read it and just went on a rant about the evil capitalists instead.
    The general thrust of his response is relatively straightforward this time - the tweet that Alastair just posted below positions it clearly. We have big problems yet the budget just tinkers. Corbyn will be hampered by his position on the fence from saying anything about Brexit. Where he will need to think quickly is in responding to the expected 'big' initiative on housing, and in spotting if there are any aspects of the budget likely to unwravel over the next few days.
    If the last ten or so are anything to go back, the trick is likely to be spotting what *isn't* going to unravel in the next 96 hours.

    Edit - this is quite fun for those who want to remember some of Osborne's more famous disasters. It was in the pasty tax budget and got a lot less attention, but cost far more money to sort out:

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,576
    The government should make an empty suggestion they'll wipe student debt, that should work.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    Of the longer odds, I fancy Marxist at 10/1. Hammond likes trolling the opposition.

    I thought Macdonnell was quite happy being called a Marxist?

    If Hammond really wanted to be naughty, he could say 'Fascist' instead with a long hard look at Emma Dent Coad. That would be trolling!

    Edit - autocorrect tried to change Hammond to 'hammock' - is my phone expecting a snooze fest?
    I am not suggesting his jokes will be funny!

    I won on Magic Money Tree last time :)
  • Essexit said:

    The government should make an empty suggestion they'll wipe student debt, that should work.
    I doubt it. The Conservative brand looks trashed pretty much beyond repair with millennials. They're going to have to work on more than just financial promises. They need to make their peace with a generation that sees Brexit as everything they oppose.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,616
    edited November 2017
    Essexit said:

    The government should make an empty suggestion they'll wipe student debt, that should work.
    This government is great at empty promises.

    Like the ban on letting agent fees.

    A year later....

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/oct/21/rent-property-letting-agent-fees-government-ban
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    So what is he going to do? Is there anything left from Ed Miliband's playbook other than the borrow cheaply to build houses announcement?

    I think that the interesting bits (well, relatively interesting) is whether provision is made for a WTO Brexit ; whether he accepts borrowing is going to increase again and makes a virtue of it by increasing "investment" Gordon Brown style; whether he seeks to tinker with the NMW; whether he either pauses or removes the 6 week delay in UC; and whether he increases the tax burden overall (I think yes) to fund the blessed NHS. Just maybe another Royal Commission on care costs?

    Of course for us poor benighted Scots any good news on tax reductions is very unlikely to be implemented north of the border.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    philiph said:

    Hammond will try and do a gag at some point (which will fall flat) but I don't know what it will be. Maybe Spreadsheets will be it.

    Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.

    There is also the delight of having Corbyn responding to the budget today.
    That’s the most difficult set piece speech of the year, by any politician. He’s got only a couple of hours for his team to read it, digest it and write a response. Last time from memory Corbyn didn’t even pretend to have read it and just went on a rant about the evil capitalists instead.
    The general thrust of his response is relatively straightforward this time - the tweet that Alastair just posted below positions it clearly. We have big problems yet the budget just tinkers. Corbyn will be hampered by his position on the fence from saying anything about Brexit. Where he will need to think quickly is in responding to the expected 'big' initiative on housing, and in spotting if there are any aspects of the budget likely to unwravel over the next few days.
    If the last ten or so are anything to go back, the trick is likely to be spotting what *isn't* going to unravel in the next 96 hours.

    Edit - this is quite fun for those who want to remember some of Osborne's more famous disasters. It was in the pasty tax budget and got a lot less attention, but cost far more money to sort out:

    ttp://youtu.be/cEWgVkBKpeI
    She’s no Tim Minchin but that was quite a funny way of getting her point across. Charging VAT on refurbishment of buildings (especially listed buildings) is a silly idea.

    The issue is still that tinkering around the edges of tax and spending makes little appreciable difference to the finances, Chancellors of all stripes need to have the guts to properly raise taxes or cut spending.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    Where has Ladbrokes hidden the budget bets anyway, I couldn't see it in Uk politics or specials?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,829
    FPT

    Recidivist said:

    » show previous quotes
    What he has done is reset the Labour brand. It is now distinctively different from the Blair years. The press and Tories have so far helped.

    That's right. Corbyn's personal ratings have by no means declined - May retains the incumbency bonus as "best PM" but is otherwise well behind on most counts. I think that most people have got used to the idea that Corbyn might become PM and it could be OK, which just a year ago wasn't the case.

    However, Corbyn has reset the Labour brand as "real left" (we argue about what that means, but most people have a general concept of it), and that's a package that floating voters treat with caution. They don't rule it out and even more extreme leftism isn't as tainted as right-wingers would like (cf. the poll showing that a huge majority would prefer communism to fascism in a forced choice), but it means that they don't automatically flip when the Government's in trouble.

    I don't think a Labour win is a slam-dunk, given the huge uncertainties ahead, and I think there will be periods where the Tories do well when the EU negotiations succeed (as they will in the end). But the visible fatigue of office will pull them back and in the end I do expect Labour to win next time by a modest majority.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    DavidL said:

    So what is he going to do? Is there anything left from Ed Miliband's playbook other than the borrow cheaply to build houses announcement?

    I think that the interesting bits (well, relatively interesting) is whether provision is made for a WTO Brexit ; whether he accepts borrowing is going to increase again and makes a virtue of it by increasing "investment" Gordon Brown style; whether he seeks to tinker with the NMW; whether he either pauses or removes the 6 week delay in UC; and whether he increases the tax burden overall (I think yes) to fund the blessed NHS. Just maybe another Royal Commission on care costs?

    Of course for us poor benighted Scots any good news on tax reductions is very unlikely to be implemented north of the border.

    He could raise corporation tax ;)
    Surely he will do something on UC...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    edited November 2017
    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    So what is he going to do? Is there anything left from Ed Miliband's playbook other than the borrow cheaply to build houses announcement?

    I think that the interesting bits (well, relatively interesting) is whether provision is made for a WTO Brexit ; whether he accepts borrowing is going to increase again and makes a virtue of it by increasing "investment" Gordon Brown style; whether he seeks to tinker with the NMW; whether he either pauses or removes the 6 week delay in UC; and whether he increases the tax burden overall (I think yes) to fund the blessed NHS. Just maybe another Royal Commission on care costs?

    Of course for us poor benighted Scots any good news on tax reductions is very unlikely to be implemented north of the border.

    He could raise corporation tax ;)
    Surely he will do something on UC...
    Yes, I think that action on UC is inevitable as is the increase in NHS spending. A cut in CT is at least as likely as an increase, possibly combined with yet more anti-evasion measures aimed at those nasty multinationals who don't pay tax.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244

    FPT

    I don't think a Labour win is a slam-dunk, given the huge uncertainties ahead, and I think there will be periods where the Tories do well when the EU negotiations succeed (as they will in the end). But the visible fatigue of office will pull them back and in the end I do expect Labour to win next time by a modest majority.

    Still feels 50/50 to me.
    I agree with you on a Brexit deal's likelihood - and at this stage the bar has been set pretty low.
    The Tories will probably have a new leader also (and potentially someone relatively unknown to the public at this stage) which should reduce the fatigue of office issue. Corbyn won't be as strong a change candidate next time, having been Opposition leader for 4+ years...

    But the Tories don't really seem to know what they stand for - and it's likely the economy will have deteriorated by the time of the next election.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
  • rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The Conservatives would be fine with that in the country. Philip Hammond couldn't get it past his own backbenchers though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    Presumably dead heat rules applying to the tie covers the position of Hammond getting all radical and having a multi-coloured one?

    He just doesn't strike me as that daring.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,329
    Ken Clarke looks asleep even when he isn't...
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 919
    rkrkrk said:

    FPT

    I don't think a Labour win is a slam-dunk, given the huge uncertainties ahead, and I think there will be periods where the Tories do well when the EU negotiations succeed (as they will in the end). But the visible fatigue of office will pull them back and in the end I do expect Labour to win next time by a modest majority.

    Still feels 50/50 to me.
    I agree with you on a Brexit deal's likelihood - and at this stage the bar has been set pretty low.
    The Tories will probably have a new leader also (and potentially someone relatively unknown to the public at this stage) which should reduce the fatigue of office issue. Corbyn won't be as strong a change candidate next time, having been Opposition leader for 4+ years...

    But the Tories don't really seem to know what they stand for - and it's likely the economy will have deteriorated by the time of the next election.
    I think it's very unlikely that Labour will win a clear majority, but they might just scrape largest party in a rainbow coalition of the left.

    Voting Labour last time was presented as a free hit - against 'Austerity' , against 'Brexit', against 'Globalisation' (because that's the real thing that many Labour voters are complaining about whether they realise it or not).

    But once it's not a free hit and Corbynite Labour have a chance of actually winning, that will concentrate minds significantly, and many who took their free hit probably won't again because they have a Garden, or a Home they couldn't now afford to buy, or a private pension, or something else that they fear will be 'redistributed'.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    DavidL said:

    Presumably dead heat rules applying to the tie covers the position of Hammond getting all radical and having a multi-coloured one?

    He just doesn't strike me as that daring.

    If he really wanted to do something funny, he could start his speech by listing all the betting options on what he's going to say.

    That would be extremely naughty but it would be hilarious!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    So what’s going to be the rabbit out of the Chancellor’s hat?

    Big raise in personal allowance?
    Something on housing - allowing councils to raise council tax on planing permission rather than on completion?
    Something on VAT that’s constrained by the EU - domestic energy, tampons?

    My favourite request, which I say every year - reversal of benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided health insurance, maybe with an allowance against NI for small businesses.
  • This piece by John Curtice is something of different take:

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The Conservatives would be fine with that in the country. Philip Hammond couldn't get it past his own backbenchers though.
    Yes. The threat to Hammond is from his own party.
    If he manages some kind of climb down on universal credit that will at least endear him to the rebels.

    To win over the Brexiteers?
    Perhaps he can make some kind of bold no-deal contingency plan...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    Fags to go up in price I reckon.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 919
    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Pulpstar, that'd be a gift for the smugglers...

    On-topic: nothing especially tempts me. I just hope he doesn't completely bugger it up.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    Pulpstar said:

    Fags to go up in price I reckon.

    That’s an absolute dead cert.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fags to go up in price I reckon.

    That’s an absolute dead cert.
    Boom boom!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 1,842
    edited November 2017
    I expect him to do something on UC. Cut the wait by a week or perhaps two. Which will do nothing to stop the crisis that UC brings to a community and will demonstrate again that the Conservatives have no idea who receives this benefit, why, or how their lives work.

    I almost feel sorry for Hammond. Whatever he does will invoke rage from his back benches. Whatever he does will not avoid the economic crash from the hard Brexit his cabinet seem obsessed with. Whatever he does will be a drop in the black hole of funding shortfall in the NHS or social security or local government or investment or housing or the cost of living.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 8,139

    I just hope he doesn't completely bugger it up.

    That's a triumph of hope over experience if so. When was the last Budget that wasn't more shambolic than the Tory election campaign? Brown in about 2003?
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The Conservatives would be fine with that in the country. Philip Hammond couldn't get it past his own backbenchers though.
    Yes. The threat to Hammond is from his own party.
    If he manages some kind of climb down on universal credit that will at least endear him to the rebels.

    To win over the Brexiteers?
    Perhaps he can make some kind of bold no-deal contingency plan...
    Kipling' poem about Danegeld could have been written with the headbanging Leavers in mind.
  • This piece by John Curtice is something of different take:

    Interesting that almost 40% of 18-24 year olds want to see immigration reduced to the tens of thousands.

    Much higher than I thought it'd be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,329

    This piece by John Curtice is something of different take:

    Interesting that almost 40% of 18-24 year olds want to see immigration reduced to the tens of thousands.

    Much higher than I thought it'd be.

    WWC?
  • DavidL said:

    Presumably dead heat rules applying to the tie covers the position of Hammond getting all radical and having a multi-coloured one?

    He just doesn't strike me as that daring.

    A quick google image search suggests blue or red, with a preference for blue. Dutching blue and red should therefore be buying money but the devil is in the detail and how much white (say) is needed to cause a dead-heat if he wears blue with white stars?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    The railcard isn't so good for commuters, though, given that you can't use it on season tickets and there are minimum fare restrictions on travel in the morning
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
    Of course not as in June Corbyn won social housing tenants by a huge margin and private sector tenants by a smaller margin but the Tories won those with a mortgage narrowly and owner occupiers by a massive margin.
  • TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Can you use a Young Person’s Railcard to buy a season ticket?
  • Brexit is happening. A chunk of the middle class youth vote (and I'd be far more concerned with 25-40 year olds than the under 25s, who have dressed to the Left since time immemorial and didn't much like Cameron either) clearly detest Brexit, but not all, particularly in the regions.

    Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.

    The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 919
    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
    Ok, I see the issue now. Then he would have to make them valid for that purpose too, which I'm not sure he can do. Never had one - despite having grown up in Greater London, you can't take a drum kit on the train so I had to drive everywhere!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,321
    edited November 2017

    This piece by John Curtice is something of different take:

    Interesting that almost 40% of 18-24 year olds want to see immigration reduced to the tens of thousands.

    Much higher than I thought it'd be.
    If that’s really the main thing you took from the article, that might explain why the Conservatives still aren’t breaking through with younger demographics. Throughout this post GE period I’ve seen a number of Conservatives now - including Sean_F and yourself draw comfort from ‘this significant minority’ supports this view on Brexit/Immigration, instead of confronting the reasons why the Conservatives lost among this demographic so badly.

    Reality is, the Conservatives likely already enjoy a sizeable share among those 39%. Mori’s post election poll showed that the Tories polled around 27% approx with 18-24 year olds.

    The more worrying statistic for the Tories (which was perhaps the point Curtis was trying to make) is that among the under 40s more generally, 54% have a positive view of immigration, as opposed to only 34% of the over 65s viewing it this way, and that this difference in cultural outlook is likely to be a millstone round the Conservatives’ neck.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
  • This piece by John Curtice is something of different take:

    Interesting that almost 40% of 18-24 year olds want to see immigration reduced to the tens of thousands.

    Much higher than I thought it'd be.

    WWC?
    When London-based "national" journalists refer to "the youth", they are referring to those middle-class ones in London and the South - their kids and friends kids - who go to University, not them.
  • Brexit is happening. A chunk of the middle class youth vote (and I'd be far more concerned with 25-40 year olds than the under 25s, who have dressed to the Left since time immemorial and didn't much like Cameron either) clearly detest Brexit, but not all, particularly in the regions.

    Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.

    The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.

    I expect in 20 years time you'll still be wondering why a cohort of 40-60 year olds are so firmly anti-Conservative.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,207
    There was some talk on the previous thread about Bristol and council tax

    Westminster sent a letter yesterday Band H council taxpayers consulting on the introduction of a voluntary "community contribution" equivalent to Band H tax payable by owners of a houses worth >£10m (effectively doubling council tax at the top end)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532

    I expect him to do something on UC. Cut the wait by a week or perhaps two. Which will do nothing to stop the crisis that UC brings to a community and will demonstrate again that the Conservatives have no idea who receives this benefit, why, or how their lives work.

    I almost feel sorry for Hammond. Whatever he does will invoke rage from his back benches. Whatever he does will not avoid the economic crash from the hard Brexit his cabinet seem obsessed with. Whatever he does will be a drop in the black hole of funding shortfall in the NHS or social security or local government or investment or housing or the cost of living.

    The Cabinet which has just agreed to upping its payment to the EU for FTA talks?

    Hardly obsession with hard Brexit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
    Both the housing and the pensions (Although this is probably not in my immediate interests) would to a large degree be sorted by a rise in interest rates.
    A slow rise keeping nominal house prices heading north generally but also reducing in real terms (& in relation to wage growth) with inflation at about a constant 2.1% would work well.
    Farming out the Gov't & civil service to Birmingham or Manchester (London has a tremendous private industry that serves it well) could be a proper catalyst to stopping the south-east growth/inflation compared to the rest of the countrys' general malaise. Shfting the BBC generally to Manchester has seen a bit of a boon there tbh which is good for the country as a whole.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Exactly. And it might be possible to toss some of the money back to basic rate pension savers in any case. For example ceasing higher rate relief would bring in about £7 billion pa, reversing Gordon Brown's raid on pensions by restoring the 10p rebate on dividends within pension schemes would cost £4 bn pa, as well as enabling Hammond to have a go at Labour.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 919

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The Conservatives would be fine with that in the country. Philip Hammond couldn't get it past his own backbenchers though.
    Yes. The threat to Hammond is from his own party.
    If he manages some kind of climb down on universal credit that will at least endear him to the rebels.

    To win over the Brexiteers?
    Perhaps he can make some kind of bold no-deal contingency plan...
    Kipling' poem about Danegeld could have been written with the headbanging Leavers in mind.
    The problem he has is 'Leave' voters. Many of them now see what is happening in the negotiation as absolute justification for their vote - and not just Tory leavers. So that gives Hammond even less wriggle on policy, because the possibility of a hard Brexit is backed by so many of his own voters and many Labour voters they might need to win over. There's a slight 'Island alone' sentiment starting to build which isn't based on the desire to leave the EU, but simply from the feeling that they "won't be blackmailed".
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    TonyE said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
    Ok, I see the issue now. Then he would have to make them valid for that purpose too, which I'm not sure he can do. Never had one - despite having grown up in Greater London, you can't take a drum kit on the train so I had to drive everywhere!
    Railcards are designed for students and young football or rugby fans - leisure rather than commuting. You can’t use them for season tickets and can’t use them in the morning peak during the week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532

    FPT

    Recidivist said:

    » show previous quotes
    What he has done is reset the Labour brand. It is now distinctively different from the Blair years. The press and Tories have so far helped.

    That's right. Corbyn's personal ratings have by no means declined - May retains the incumbency bonus as "best PM" but is otherwise well behind on most counts. I think that most people have got used to the idea that Corbyn might become PM and it could be OK, which just a year ago wasn't the case.

    However, Corbyn has reset the Labour brand as "real left" (we argue about what that means, but most people have a general concept of it), and that's a package that floating voters treat with caution. They don't rule it out and even more extreme leftism isn't as tainted as right-wingers would like (cf. the poll showing that a huge majority would prefer communism to fascism in a forced choice), but it means that they don't automatically flip when the Government's in trouble.

    I don't think a Labour win is a slam-dunk, given the huge uncertainties ahead, and I think there will be periods where the Tories do well when the EU negotiations succeed (as they will in the end). But the visible fatigue of office will pull them back and in the end I do expect Labour to win next time by a modest majority.

    Even Churchill preferred communism to fascism though he loathed both.

    At the moment almost all the polls are suggesting a Labour minority government even if the Tories win most seats, to get a majority Corbyn would need a lead approaching 7%, especially while the SNP continues to win most seats in Scotland even if Corbyn made a few inroads in Glasgow and the Central belt in June.
  • Off topic, is Murder on the Orient Express the most disappointing Kenneth Branagh film ever?
  • Brexit is happening. A chunk of the middle class youth vote (and I'd be far more concerned with 25-40 year olds than the under 25s, who have dressed to the Left since time immemorial and didn't much like Cameron either) clearly detest Brexit, but not all, particularly in the regions.

    Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.

    The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.

    I expect in 20 years time you'll still be wondering why a cohort of 40-60 year olds are so firmly anti-Conservative.
    Won't they mostly have emigrated, Alastair?

    My son's off, and I believe Smithson Jnr is now a Californian. Could become a stampede.
  • Brexit is happening. A chunk of the middle class youth vote (and I'd be far more concerned with 25-40 year olds than the under 25s, who have dressed to the Left since time immemorial and didn't much like Cameron either) clearly detest Brexit, but not all, particularly in the regions.

    Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.

    The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.

    I expect in 20 years time you'll still be wondering why a cohort of 40-60 year olds are so firmly anti-Conservative.
    Ok.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271

    Off topic, is Murder on the Orient Express the most disappointing Kenneth Branagh film ever?

    It's not that good. Although a whodunit where you already know who was always going to struggle.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    I’d like to see some evidence on that. I’m suspicious of the idea that wealthy people need generous treatment to be encouraged to save and that this is the best use of govt resources.
  • This piece by John Curtice is something of different take:

    Interesting that almost 40% of 18-24 year olds want to see immigration reduced to the tens of thousands.

    Much higher than I thought it'd be.

    WWC?
    When London-based "national" journalists refer to "the youth", they are referring to those middle-class ones in London and the South - their kids and friends kids - who go to University, not them.
    No, they are referring to the views of a majority of the young electorate. You have older voters who have left-liberal views as well, but the reality is because most of the older electorate has more right leaning views on issues such as immigration and Brexit, they are referred to as such.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    edited November 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
    Both the housing and the pensions (Although this is probably not in my immediate interests) would to a large degree be sorted by a rise in interest rates.
    A slow rise keeping nominal house prices heading north generally but also reducing in real terms (& in relation to wage growth) with inflation at about a constant 2.1% would work well.
    Farming out the Gov't & civil service to Birmingham or Manchester (London has a tremendous private industry that serves it well) could be a proper catalyst to stopping the south-east growth/inflation compared to the rest of the countrys' general malaise. Shfting the BBC generally to Manchester has seen a bit of a boon there tbh which is good for the country as a whole.
    Absolutely. The easiest (relatively) solution to the housing problems, which as you say are a London and south east problem mainly, is a slow but steady raising of interest rates.

    Moving as many civil servants out of London as possible is also a good idea, but needs to be done carefully to avoid areas where relatively high public sector salaries crowd out local businesses.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
    Ok, I see the issue now. Then he would have to make them valid for that purpose too, which I'm not sure he can do. Never had one - despite having grown up in Greater London, you can't take a drum kit on the train so I had to drive everywhere!
    Railcards are designed for students and young football or rugby fans - leisure rather than commuting. You can’t use them for season tickets and can’t use them in the morning peak during the week.
    I thought you could use the young person card (not the adult one) in the morning but there is a minimum fare?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    edited November 2017

    Brexit is happening. A chunk of the middle class youth vote (and I'd be far more concerned with 25-40 year olds than the under 25s, who have dressed to the Left since time immemorial and didn't much like Cameron either) clearly detest Brexit, but not all, particularly in the regions.

    Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.

    The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.

    I expect in 20 years time you'll still be wondering why a cohort of 40-60 year olds are so firmly anti-Conservative.
    Won't they mostly have emigrated, Alastair?

    My son's off, and I believe Smithson Jnr is now a Californian. Could become a stampede.
    Given Bernie Sanders currently leads US polls for the 2020 presidential election and Sanders backed Corbyn in June I do not think the US is safe from populism either, Trump v Sanders is hardly a recipe for stability whichever of them wins.

    Trudeau's Canada or Australia or even Macron's France (provided he sees off Melenchon and Le Pen in 2022) are all better bets for stability, growth and centrist politics in the next decade than the UK or USA
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,011
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    I’d like to see some evidence on that. I’m suspicious of the idea that wealthy people need generous treatment to be encouraged to save and that this is the best use of govt resources.
    I’m 34 and save £1k a month into my pension via a combination of contributions from me and my employer, and tax relief. My latest projected pension income from my pension provider is £12k in 2017 prices.

    Everyone is screwed for retirement.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,509
    HYUFD said:

    Brexit is happening. A chunk of the middle class youth vote (and I'd be far more concerned with 25-40 year olds than the under 25s, who have dressed to the Left since time immemorial and didn't much like Cameron either) clearly detest Brexit, but not all, particularly in the regions.

    Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.

    The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.

    I expect in 20 years time you'll still be wondering why a cohort of 40-60 year olds are so firmly anti-Conservative.
    Won't they mostly have emigrated, Alastair?

    My son's off, and I believe Smithson Jnr is now a Californian. Could become a stampede.
    Given Bernie Sanders currently leads US polls for the 2020 presidential election and Sanders backed Corbyn in June do not think the US is safe from populism either, Trump v Sanders is hardly a recipe for stability whichever of them wins.

    Trudeau's Canada or Australia or even Macron's France (provided he sees off Melenchon and Le Pen in 2022) are all better bets for stability, growth and centrist politics in the next decade than the UK or USA
    Stability was one of Britain's USPs. Brexit killed that overnight. Shame.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    I’d like to see some evidence on that. I’m suspicious of the idea that wealthy people need generous treatment to be encouraged to save and that this is the best use of govt resources.
    A move toward encouraging superannuation Aus style (10 + 10%) would be good for everyone. In 20 or 30 years time I reckon Aus' state pension bill will be miniscule, and most of their pensioners will be pretty rich.

    I mean check this:

    As of 30 December 2016, Australians have $2,199 billion ($2.2 trillion rounded) in superannuation assets, making Australia the 4th largest holder of pension fund assets in the world.

    It's a tremendous formula for success.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    I’d like to see some evidence on that. I’m suspicious of the idea that wealthy people need generous treatment to be encouraged to save and that this is the best use of govt resources.
    I’m 34 and save £1k a month into my pension via a combination of contributions from me and my employer, and tax relief. My latest projected pension income from my pension provider is £12k in 2017 prices.

    Everyone is screwed for retirement.

    Hmm I'm 35, save around half that and my current pot is worth just over 70k I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    Given we've already had briefings that May and Hammond are at each others throats, I think it's a given the budget will go poorly. Especially as they need to compete with labour and release more money but somehow try to appear prudent too, an impossible task, and given they lacked the numbers for most tax rises or more difficult budget cuts last year, let alone now.

    It'll be a grim few days for the tories, just a question of whether small nonsense about pasties makes the headline running , or if some major stuff falls flat , and If Hammond makes it to the weekend. I give it 50 50.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,271
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    The fact that it is a powerful incentive for high earners is why it costs so much money. I have known a fair few who have spent their early 50s shovelling lots into pensions simply to get the relief and 25% back tax free when they make 55.

    The majority of such people are unlikely to be those claiming pension credit in the future.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,509
    If you consider the massive problems this economy has, the fact the government is talking about railcards today is kind of pathetic really.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    I’d like to see some evidence on that. I’m suspicious of the idea that wealthy people need generous treatment to be encouraged to save and that this is the best use of govt resources.
    https://www.hl.co.uk/pensions/annuities/annuity-best-buy-rates
    £100,000 pension savings currently pays £3,150 per year at age 65, with a 3% annual uplift and 50% support for spouse of the same age.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    edited November 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Here's the weird thing. This looks like a gimmick, but might actually do exactly what its supposed to do.

    The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
    Yes, but railcards aren’t valid on season tickets.

    By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
    Ok, I see the issue now. Then he would have to make them valid for that purpose too, which I'm not sure he can do. Never had one - despite having grown up in Greater London, you can't take a drum kit on the train so I had to drive everywhere!
    Railcards are designed for students and young football or rugby fans - leisure rather than commuting. You can’t use them for season tickets and can’t use them in the morning peak during the week.
    I thought you could use the young person card (not the adult one) in the morning but there is a minimum fare?
    I may be wrong, haven’t been under 26 for more than a decade!
    Edit: Looks like a minimum fare of £12 for peak tickets, so would work for occasional London commuters from the Home Counties, but definitely not for season tickets which are full price for everyone.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/16–25_Railcard
  • HYUFD said:

    Brexit is happening. A chunk of the middle class youth vote (and I'd be far more concerned with 25-40 year olds than the under 25s, who have dressed to the Left since time immemorial and didn't much like Cameron either) clearly detest Brexit, but not all, particularly in the regions.

    Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.

    The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.

    I expect in 20 years time you'll still be wondering why a cohort of 40-60 year olds are so firmly anti-Conservative.
    Won't they mostly have emigrated, Alastair?

    My son's off, and I believe Smithson Jnr is now a Californian. Could become a stampede.
    Given Bernie Sanders currently leads US polls for the 2020 presidential election and Sanders backed Corbyn in June I do not think the US is safe from populism either, Trump v Sanders is hardly a recipe for stability whichever of them wins.

    Trudeau's Canada or Australia or even Macron's France (provided he sees off Melenchon and Le Pen in 2022) are all better bets for stability, growth and centrist politics in the next decade than the UK or USA
    Well I was teasing re Smithson, Hyufd, who was a Brexit supporter, as you know. Seriously, I would agree with your last paragraph, especially Canada which seems a great option for those that can go there. That would include me, by the way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    IanB2 said:

    Off topic, is Murder on the Orient Express the most disappointing Kenneth Branagh film ever?

    It's not that good. Although a whodunit where you already know who was always going to struggle.
    I didn't know as I've not read or seen any version before, and I thought it reasonably directed and very well acted but I absolutely hated the ending. I've not left a movie so annoyed in a long time, and I saw batman vs superman in the cinema.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Presumably dead heat rules applying to the tie covers the position of Hammond getting all radical and having a multi-coloured one?

    He just doesn't strike me as that daring.

    If he really wanted to do something funny, he could start his speech by listing all the betting options on what he's going to say.

    That would be extremely naughty but it would be hilarious!
    You could just about imagine Osborne doing something like that but Hammond is a very dull stick. His priority is to give his boss no new reasons to sack him and ideally find someone who wants him to stay.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 15,515
    edited November 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    The fact that it is a powerful incentive for high earners is why it costs so much money. I have known a fair few who have spent their early 50s shovelling lots into pensions simply to get the relief and 25% back tax free when they make 55.

    The majority of such people are unlikely to be those claiming pension credit in the future.
    Unlikely to be claiming pension credit in the future, because we gave them a good incentive to make their own retirement provision while they were in work!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    The tax rise (relief cut) that has seemed 'only a matter of time' for a while is higher rate relief on pension contributions, which is reasonably big money.

    Steve Webb used to talk about that I think.
    Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
    The problem with squeezing pensions still further is the two-tier system that exists with defined benefits pension arrangements, as well as interest rates being on the floor causing annuity rates to tumble in recent years.

    Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
    Not sure about that... do many higher rate taxpayers end up relying on the state in later life?
    Anyone who’s left it late to start a pension, even if they’re earning £50-£60k a year at retirement, can struggle to get an income of £10-£12k a year in the current annuity market and can end up claiming pension credit. The higher rate relief makes a massive difference to people’s willingness to save, especially to avoid the child benefit withdrawal at £50-60k and personal allowance tapering at £100-£115k incomes.
    I’d like to see some evidence on that. I’m suspicious of the idea that wealthy people need generous treatment to be encouraged to save and that this is the best use of govt resources.
    https://www.hl.co.uk/pensions/annuities/annuity-best-buy-rates
    £100,000 pension savings currently pays £3,150 per year at age 65, with a 3% annual uplift and 50% support for spouse of the same age.
    Oh I don't doubt you are right on annuities (which as I understand it are normally quite a poor investment).

    But evidence on higher rate relief encouraging saving?
    And encouraging saving in the right groups of people?

    From a summary of Private Pensions Institute report for instance:

    "There is limited evidence around the effectiveness of tax incentives in
    encouraging pension saving. However, such evidence as there is suggests
    that tax relief is not very effective in incentivising saving."

    http://www.pensionspolicyinstitute.org.uk/publications/reports/tax-relief-for-pension-saving-in-the-uk
This discussion has been closed.