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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Astonishingly Roy Moore remains the odds on favourite to win t

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Astonishingly Roy Moore remains the odds on favourite to win the Alabama Senate race

Latest Alabama polls have Roy Moore leading by 6% and 2%. https://t.co/DuVvdOjH4U

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    Innocent until proven otherwise, and all that I guess...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    MaxPB said:

    Innocent until proven otherwise, and all that I guess...

    25% of his voters think the allegations are true, but will vote for him anyway.
  • What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,278
    Fifth like Boris
  • PongPong Posts: 4,617
    edited November 2017


    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,781
    Marginal turnout will be key here. Will enough Reps. stay home? Will Dems come out to vote? I have no idea, therefore seems an exteremely difficult race to call.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    I was pleasantly surprised by the budget yesterday. I put up a wish list of things I thought needed addressed and they all were. Of course you can argue about the extent to which they were addressed but given the tightness of the situation he achieved more than I expected.

    The most important thing in the budget going forward was of course the reduction in growth forecasts. On the face of it this looked very bad news for the government but having listened to the chatter whilst driving to and from Aberdeen (after close of play, natch) it seemed to me to be having 2 favourable effects.

    First, the link between our standard of living and our productivity has been reestablished in the public mind in a big way. The government is trying to help with this (arguably a little belatedly) but it is not ultimately a government problem.

    Secondly, the consequences of this make the Labour plans to spend more on everything look frankly frivolous and silly, hence their more difficult interviews over the last couple of days. No one is happy about the appalling record on real wages but there seems to me more of a recognition that this is the world in which both we and the government are operating and it’s tough. Waving magic wands to make it all go away just isn’t going to cut it.

    Is this gross over optimism from a semi detached supporting rter? Maybe but it will be interesting to see how the polling moves from here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    On topic, just ugh.
  • Mr. Pong, the IFS can be useful but the Delphic status given it by some always baffled me. An early Osborne Budget was censured by them for decreasing benefits, but the forecast decline was due to less unemployment benefit as more people were predicted to be in work.

    I agree with your reading of the IFS' commentary on its own prediction.
  • Mr. L, yeah, that was mostly my assessment. The media seemed to have decided they'd tear the Budget to pieces, and sounded a bit bloody weird.

    "This won't help first time buyers getting a £500,000 home!"
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,156

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    And it's all completely believable.....
  • You have to sympathise with the voters in Alabama, forced to choose between a democrat and a paedophile.

    I guess a lot will sit on their hands.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417

    Mr. L, yeah, that was mostly my assessment. The media seemed to have decided they'd tear the Budget to pieces, and sounded a bit bloody weird.

    "This won't help first time buyers getting a £500,000 home!"

    It's the London bias. I think that kinds of stuff just makes them look ridiculous everywhere else in the country.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    You have the chance of a gain. If you’ve simply paid it to the government as a tax it is gone for good. But the biggest gain is the cash flow benefit of not having to find the stamp duty at a time of so many other costs.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,463
    Afternoon again all :)

    Sorry to go O/T so quickly but having talked LDs all morning on the previous, I thought I should comment on the Budget.

    One is tempted to think "Much Ado about Nothing" rather than "As You Like It" if being all Shakespearean but in truth it was as always more about the politics than the economics. Reading the speech on gov.uk with the political knockabout removed it comes over as a bit of weak sloganizing but no more than any other Chancellor.

    I'm not too impressed with the stamp duty measure - it didn't work well before as all it does is inflate prices (our old friend supply meet demand) in the band where the holiday is. I heard almost nothing about addressing the fundamental issue of housing and to say one or two on here actually defend the house builders who are sitting on thousands of plots of land with planning permission is just absurd.

    It almost seems as though Government and the house builders are colluding to keep the value of land high - what a ludicrous notion, it sounds like a good excuse for LVT. From LVT to DVT and good news for cattle class flyers and not so good for those of us who want to arrive alive and functioning.

    The downgrade in growth forecasts was inevitable and while Hammond talked about productivity, the fundamental problem of the availability of cheap labour and the reluctance of companies to invest in technology remains unresolved for now. We need, I think, in terms of our immigration policy post-EU to put the onus much more on employers to not only justify but to actively contribute toward the cost of incoming labour.

    The other aspect and part of the appeal of the Corbyn alternative is people are ground down by stagnation (as they see it) with long hours for little improvement in pay and therefore little ability to advance in their lives.
  • Mr. Max, there does seem to be a lot more from Manchester/Leeds than there used to be, so you would've thought such a filter would be getting weaker.

    It's also possible they're just morons, as per a 0.1% spike in inflation.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    By the way , friendly advice to RCS whilst in the US. Stay away from any child of Scott Taylor.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    I'm looking forward to Roy Moore explaining that he thinks incest is cool.
  • Sean_F said:

    I'm looking forward to Roy Moore explaining that he thinks incest is cool.

    Incest is cool? It's a relative thing.
  • Mr. Eagles, the darker meaning of the well-known phrase: bros before hos.
  • The communications director for controversial Senate candidate Roy Moore has resigned from his position on the campaign, senior campaign adviser Brett Doster tells CNN.

    Doster said Wednesday that John Rogers didn't have the experience to deal with the level of scrutiny brought on by the national press, and the campaign had to make a change.

    He added that Rogers had not been dismissed but that he "didn't like playing second fiddle on the communications side."

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/22/politics/moore-communications-director-resigns/index.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    Sean_F said:

    I'm looking forward to Roy Moore explaining that he thinks incest is cool.

    I don't think the people of Alabama need that explained.
  • Mr. Eagles, the darker meaning of the well-known phrase: bros before hos.

    Alabama, the only place in the world where they sell 'Happy Birthday Uncle-Dad' cards
  • The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 919

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
  • TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,197
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    You are not going to consume the house. You own it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm looking forward to Roy Moore explaining that he thinks incest is cool.

    I don't think the people of Alabama need that explained.
    I always thought that Forest Gramps, in the Lady of the Lake, was an Alabamian.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 636

    Mr. Max, there does seem to be a lot more from Manchester/Leeds than there used to be, so you would've thought such a filter would be getting weaker.

    It's also possible they're just morons, as per a 0.1% spike in inflation.

    You assume that the trendier suburbs/centre in Leeds or the still massively expanding residential centre in Manchester are less metropolitan in outlook or have low enough house prices for the journalists there to notice the difference.
  • Evil feckers in Brussels take away Leeds' chance to be European City of Culture.

    Right, Hard Brexit it is.

    The EU is not Europe.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519

    Mr. Eagles, the darker meaning of the well-known phrase: bros before hos.

    Alabama, the only place in the world where they sell 'Happy Birthday Uncle-Dad' cards
    They believe in keeping the blood pure.
  • TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    2) is the curious one. Of course, the EU sequencing is daft, but I assume we "conceded" for goodwill, to make a quicker start, and on the understanding that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed (so sequencing is a bit of a red herring anyway).

    The net effect of what has since transpired may be that more people in the UK now think the EU is being unreasonable. It also gives both sides the option of a slightly artificial "breakthrough".
  • Mr. Rentool, I think waiting until after submissions were made before saying UK cities don't count (didn't Istanbul win one year?) was a bit dickish.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,156

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    Come come, you know Brexit would be a breeze were it not for sabotage by the media, the civil service, the city, remonaers, the House of Lords, and other traitors too numerous to mention.
  • Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
  • Mr. Rentool, I think waiting until after submissions were made before saying UK cities don't count (didn't Istanbul win one year?) was a bit dickish.

    Cities which have been European city of culture without being in the EU or the EEA:

    Krakòw 2000
    Prague 2000
    Istanbul 2010

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953
    edited November 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.

    Or you do it anyway with Corbyn's votes...
  • You have to sympathise with the voters in Alabama, forced to choose between a democrat and a paedophile.

    I guess a lot will sit on their hands.

    As long as they're not encouraging 14 year olds to sit on their hands.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249

    The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.

    Agree.
    Except I'd say it's not a small mercy at all - it's a rather large one.

    Would the Dems do the same? I like to think they'd turn on a candidate like Roy Moore.
    But who knows!? They largely stuck by Bill Clinton who certainly had enough rape allegations...
  • Mr. Tyndall, cheers for that info.

    Just more eurotwattery, then. Particularly puerile to wait until submissions are made before ruling them out.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249

    rkrkrk said:

    Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.

    Or you do it anyway with Corbyn's votes...
    Risky... they could then cancel the whole deal, presumably having received much of the 1billion and then you're a bit stuck and might have to have a general election.
  • Mr. Rentool, I think waiting until after submissions were made before saying UK cities don't count (didn't Istanbul win one year?) was a bit dickish.

    Cities which have been European city of culture without being in the EU or the EEA:

    Krakòw 2000
    Prague 2000
    Istanbul 2010

    All three of which are cities in nations that were at the time accession nations which makes them valid. We're not going to be an accession nation after we leave.
  • Mr. Rentool, I think waiting until after submissions were made before saying UK cities don't count (didn't Istanbul win one year?) was a bit dickish.

    Cities which have been European city of culture without being in the EU or the EEA:

    Krakòw 2000
    Prague 2000
    Istanbul 2010

    All three of which are cities in nations that were at the time accession nations which makes them valid. We're not going to be an accession nation after we leave.
    And yet people keep telling us that Turkey were never going to join the EU. :)

    To be fair I think the European City of Culture is a typically twattish form of eating public money that the EU seem to love so I am certainly not exercised by this. I just love to see them tying themselves in knots trying to justify these decisions.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,510

    Mr. Rentool, I think waiting until after submissions were made before saying UK cities don't count (didn't Istanbul win one year?) was a bit dickish.

    Cities which have been European city of culture without being in the EU or the EEA:

    Krakòw 2000
    Prague 2000
    Istanbul 2010

    All three of which are cities in nations that were at the time accession nations which makes them valid. We're not going to be an accession nation after we leave.
    What? Turkey was joining the EU?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,156
    edited November 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
    The Irish position is obviously to try and get NI to remain in the single market and customs union, thus taking a big step on the road to a united Ireland. And it is also what the people of NI voted for at the referendum.

    If they can't get that - and they probably can't - then their fallback is to try and scupper Brexit altogether and this means pushing the UK closer to the cliff edge.

    Perfectly logical for Ireland to take this position - and perfectly illogical, though not surprising, that the UK government seems not to have anticipated or prepared for them to do so.
  • rkrkrk said:

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
    We wouldn't screw the Northern Irish over and have a border in the Irish sea even if we have 400 Tory MPs.
  • tlg86 said:

    Mr. Rentool, I think waiting until after submissions were made before saying UK cities don't count (didn't Istanbul win one year?) was a bit dickish.

    Cities which have been European city of culture without being in the EU or the EEA:

    Krakòw 2000
    Prague 2000
    Istanbul 2010

    All three of which are cities in nations that were at the time accession nations which makes them valid. We're not going to be an accession nation after we leave.
    What? Turkey was joining the EU?
    Indeed that was a matter of fact which is why they were eligible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,419

    The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.

    Replace "child molester" with "anti-Semite" though, and that moral high ground you are sat on suddenly looks more a hill than a mountain....
  • PongPong Posts: 4,617
    edited November 2017

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. That's not possible. It's bollox.

    The change means FTB'ers have been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back. It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
  • What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    And it's all completely believable.....
    The concerning thing about that article is how often the comment was made that the UK government's position is 'chaotic'. It really isn't. The position has been broadly the same ever since Theresa May became PM, bar some movement in negotiations.

    So what do they mean? My guess is that 'chaotic' is being used as a synonym for 'inability to agree or progress' and that once again the two sides are talking in different languages - the fundamental problem of British membership ever since Day 1.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249

    rkrkrk said:

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
    We wouldn't screw the Northern Irish over and have a border in the Irish sea even if we have 400 Tory MPs.
    I'm not so sure about that. It's a moot point anyway now.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,238
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Rentool, I think waiting until after submissions were made before saying UK cities don't count (didn't Istanbul win one year?) was a bit dickish.

    Cities which have been European city of culture without being in the EU or the EEA:

    Krakòw 2000
    Prague 2000
    Istanbul 2010

    All three of which are cities in nations that were at the time accession nations which makes them valid. We're not going to be an accession nation after we leave.
    What? Turkey was joining the EU?
    Just part of the fiendishly elaborate hoax. How we all laughed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    And it's all completely believable.....
    The concerning thing about that article is how often the comment was made that the UK government's position is 'chaotic'. It really isn't. The position has been broadly the same ever since Theresa May became PM, bar some movement in negotiations.

    So what do they mean? My guess is that 'chaotic' is being used as a synonym for 'inability to agree or progress' and that once again the two sides are talking in different languages - the fundamental problem of British membership ever since Day 1.
    What do they mean by chaotic? Probably things like this:

    https://www.ft.com/content/72ead180-229a-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

    David Davis, Brexit secretary, does not accept that the two agencies and roughly 1,000 staff will have to move from London’s Canary Wharf, even though the EU is about to run a competition to relocate them.

    A UK Brexit department spokesman said: “No decisions have been taken about the location of the European Banking Authority or the European Medicines Agency — these will be subject to the exit negotiations.”
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 636

    The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.

    Replace "child molester" with "anti-Semite" though, and that moral high ground you are sat on suddenly looks more a hill than a mountain....
    There are left of centre posters you could fire this retort back at. Southam isn't one of them.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. FTB'ers just been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back.

    It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Yes but they will also own an asset that is worth more.

    In scenario one they bought a house for 300k and paid 5k stamp duty.
    In scenario two they bought a house for 310k and paid no stamp duty.

    In one scenario they lost 5k buying a house. In the other scenario they lost nothing.
    They have more debt... but in theory they have a more valuable asset to compensate.

    I think that's what's going on anyway...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. That's not possible. It's bollox.

    The change means FTB'ers have been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back. It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Yes because the buyer is building equity in a saleable asset instead of renting. Making the deposit requirement go down by £5k helps people buy houses, that, is the gain.
  • Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. That's not possible. It's bollox.

    The change means FTB'ers have been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back. It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Yes you are.

    Stamp duty is an up-front tax that they need to pay 100% of and they have no extra asset after paying for it.

    House price is paid over 25 years and they need to pay a small percentage of it up-front (the deposit) and however much they pay they have an asset worth that much afterward.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. FTB'ers just been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back.

    It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Yes but they will also own an asset that is worth more.

    In scenario one they bought a house for 300k and paid 5k stamp duty.
    In scenario two they bought a house for 310k and paid no stamp duty.

    In one scenario they lost 5k buying a house. In the other scenario they lost nothing.
    They have more debt... but in theory they have a more valuable asset to compensate.

    I think that's what's going on anyway...
    There is also scenario three - they came up £5k short on their deposit and have to continue renting.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. FTB'ers just been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back.

    It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Yes but they will also own an asset that is worth more.

    In scenario one they bought a house for 300k and paid 5k stamp duty.
    In scenario two they bought a house for 310k and paid no stamp duty.

    In one scenario they lost 5k buying a house. In the other scenario they lost nothing.
    They have more debt... but in theory they have a more valuable asset to compensate.

    I think that's what's going on anyway...
    There is also scenario three - they came up £5k short on their deposit and have to continue renting.
    Yep that's another benefit for sure.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. FTB'ers just been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back.

    It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Yes but they will also own an asset that is worth more.

    In scenario one they bought a house for 300k and paid 5k stamp duty.
    In scenario two they bought a house for 310k and paid no stamp duty.

    In one scenario they lost 5k buying a house. In the other scenario they lost nothing.
    They have more debt... but in theory they have a more valuable asset to compensate.

    I think that's what's going on anyway...
    Not only that but in scenario one they need the full 5k up-front which reduces their deposit by 5k. That makes it harder to get the deposit in the first place.

    In scenario two then the mortgage will cover the bulk of the extra 10k. At 10% deposit they'd need just 1k extra up front meaning their deposit is 4k more than it would have been otherwise.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,088
    edited November 2017
    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    They are rattling the cage at present because they think it's probably the best time (prior to trade negs) to get something in from the UK as the pressure might build on them after that to fall in line.

    As for sticking a border in the Irish sea? How likely would the French put one between Nice and Corsica? Why would the Conservative (and Unionist party) sell out NI anyway, let alone the DUP with the current Parliamentary arithmetic?

    There is some constraint on the DUP though not to push it all to the nth degree given the chances of another GE resulting in the perfect sweet spot they are now in are pretty remote.

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)
  • You have to sympathise with the voters in Alabama, forced to choose between a democrat and a paedophile.

    I guess a lot will sit on their hands.

    Although it wasn't always thus. The Democrats had two senators in Alabama as recently as 1994 and last elected a Democratic governor in 1998.
  • Mr. Divvie, that's tragic.

    Mr. Owl, indeed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519

    rkrkrk said:

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
    The Irish position is obviously to try and get NI to remain in the single market and customs union, thus taking a big step on the road to a united Ireland. And it is also what the people of NI voted for at the referendum.

    If they can't get that - and they probably can't - then their fallback is to try and scupper Brexit altogether and this means pushing the UK closer to the cliff edge.

    Perfectly logical for Ireland to take this position - and perfectly illogical, though not surprising, that the UK government seems not to have anticipated or prepared for them to do so.
    Maybe they believed they were on good terms with the Irish government.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,731
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. FTB'ers just been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back.

    It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Yes but they will also own an asset that is worth more.

    In scenario one they bought a house for 300k and paid 5k stamp duty.
    In scenario two they bought a house for 310k and paid no stamp duty.

    In one scenario they lost 5k buying a house. In the other scenario they lost nothing.
    They have more debt... but in theory they have a more valuable asset to compensate.

    I think that's what's going on anyway...
    There is also scenario three - they came up £5k short on their deposit and have to continue renting.
    +1
  • rkrkrk said:

    The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.

    Agree.
    Except I'd say it's not a small mercy at all - it's a rather large one.

    Would the Dems do the same? I like to think they'd turn on a candidate like Roy Moore.
    But who knows!? They largely stuck by Bill Clinton who certainly had enough rape allegations...
    'Largely stuck by him'?! They were prepared to make him First Gentleman (or whatever the title would have been) as recently as last year.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,249

    rkrkrk said:

    The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.

    Agree.
    Except I'd say it's not a small mercy at all - it's a rather large one.

    Would the Dems do the same? I like to think they'd turn on a candidate like Roy Moore.
    But who knows!? They largely stuck by Bill Clinton who certainly had enough rape allegations...
    'Largely stuck by him'?! They were prepared to make him First Gentleman (or whatever the title would have been) as recently as last year.
    I think it's fair enough not to hold Bill's crimes against Hilary.
    But yes you're right - that was an understatement.
  • Bloody hell. Colin is a great friend of mine. Nice to see him being quoted on here.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.

    Agree.
    Except I'd say it's not a small mercy at all - it's a rather large one.

    Would the Dems do the same? I like to think they'd turn on a candidate like Roy Moore.
    But who knows!? They largely stuck by Bill Clinton who certainly had enough rape allegations...
    'Largely stuck by him'?! They were prepared to make him First Gentleman (or whatever the title would have been) as recently as last year.
    I think it's fair enough not to hold Bill's crimes against Hilary.
    But yes you're right - that was an understatement.
    But she helped to cover up his crimes, lets not forget that she was complicit in discrediting all of Bill's alleged victims.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    Bill Clinton is sleazy, but is he guilty of criminal behaviour?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,417
    Sean_F said:

    Bill Clinton is sleazy, but is he guilty of criminal behaviour?

    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/11/reckoning-with-bill-clintons-sex-crimes/545729/

    A decent primer.
  • Sean_F said:

    Bill Clinton is sleazy, but is he guilty of criminal behaviour?

    Just pre-naturally lucky with investments. Curtain abuse as well.
  • rkrkrk said:

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
    The Irish position is obviously to try and get NI to remain in the single market and customs union, thus taking a big step on the road to a united Ireland. And it is also what the people of NI voted for at the referendum.

    If they can't get that - and they probably can't - then their fallback is to try and scupper Brexit altogether and this means pushing the UK closer to the cliff edge.

    Perfectly logical for Ireland to take this position - and perfectly illogical, though not surprising, that the UK government seems not to have anticipated or prepared for them to do so.
    It's not what the people of NI voted for. They voted to Leave.
  • rkrkrk said:

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
    The Irish position is obviously to try and get NI to remain in the single market and customs union, thus taking a big step on the road to a united Ireland. And it is also what the people of NI voted for at the referendum.

    If they can't get that - and they probably can't - then their fallback is to try and scupper Brexit altogether and this means pushing the UK closer to the cliff edge.

    Perfectly logical for Ireland to take this position - and perfectly illogical, though not surprising, that the UK government seems not to have anticipated or prepared for them to do so.
    It's not what the people of NI voted for - they voted for the UK to remain in the EU; not for NI to do so independently. Arguably, Ireland's actions, in pushing policies that would break up the unity of the UK, are of themselves a breach of at the very least the spirit of the GFA and perhaps the letter of it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,352
    welshowl said:

    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    They are rattling the cage at present because they think it's probably the best time (prior to trade negs) to get something in from the UK as the pressure might build on them after that to fall in line.

    As for sticking a border in the Irish sea? How likely would the French put one between Nice and Corsica? Why would the Conservative (and Unionist party) sell out NI anyway, let alone the DUP with the current Parliamentary arithmetic?

    There is some constraint on the DUP though not to push it all to the nth degree given the chances of another GE resulting in the perfect sweet spot they are now in are pretty remote.

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)

    The border in the Irish Sea would be transparent and frictionless using the same technology proposed by the UK for the border between North and South so it's not a big deal logistically (allegedly).

    Politically the DUP won't like it (slippery slope) though they do want an open border with the ROI.

    Two options for the DUP.

    1. Trenchantly oppose the border in the Irish Sea and risk a hard Brexit or the UK Government
    looking for support elsewhere in Parliament for the Irish Sea border solution.
    2. Push for a customs union for the whole of the UK with others in Parliament and defeat the Government on this point so solving the Irish border problem without introducing a transparent frictionless border in the Irish Sea.
  • The debate on productivity seems to have become the narrative of the budget and how to address it.

    There was an interview on the BBC with a labour spokesman and it became apparent that labour's spending pledges and huge borrowings do not address the issue including cancelling student fees, public sector pay rises and nationalisation

    You do wonder if the penny has dropped and McDonnell's recent car crash interviews maybe a result of him realising that he has a much harder, if not impossible, task of selling his policies to an already sceptical public
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,692
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    Pong said:



    IFS‏Verified account @TheIFS

    Many first-time buyers gain, even if house prices rise by more than their stamp duty falls #Budget2017

    --

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    They are right. The amount you gave to borrow might have gone up a bit butbthe amount you need for your deposit has gone down. So you have more chance of getting on the housing ladder in the first place.
    But the IFS is saying even if the price of the asset has increased by more than the stamp duty, then the first time buyer has gained.

    No they haven't. That's not possible. It's bollox.

    The change means FTB'ers have been simultaneously enabled and required to borrow more. They will own an asset on which they have a larger debt to pay back. It will take them more months of repayments before the mortgage is paid off.

    No?

    Am I going completely mad here?
    Not going mad but it depends on your priority. If you want to get on the housing ladder but have trouble affording the deposit then any increase up to £350,000 leaves you in a better position to achieve that. Of course If you are thinking over the 25 year term then yes it had increased how much you pay back. But there are other factors which influence that far more such as interest rates.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The US is in a very, very bad place.

    However divided we are, I don't think any UK electorate would entertain voting for a child molester because he was representing the "right side". Equally, I don't think you could ever be a leader here if you were to openly mock the handicapped.

    We should be grateful for small mercies.

    Agree.
    Except I'd say it's not a small mercy at all - it's a rather large one.

    Would the Dems do the same? I like to think they'd turn on a candidate like Roy Moore.
    But who knows!? They largely stuck by Bill Clinton who certainly had enough rape allegations...
    'Largely stuck by him'?! They were prepared to make him First Gentleman (or whatever the title would have been) as recently as last year.
    I think it's fair enough not to hold Bill's crimes against Hilary.
    But yes you're right - that was an understatement.
    To an extent that's true but given that the presidential spouse holds a recognised office, and that Hillary did nothing to distance herself from Bill, she's not entirely in the clear.

    In fact, it's one of the odder aspects of a very odd election that despite Trump shouting the claims from the stage in a debate, it never really became an issue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953

    It's not what the people of NI voted for - they voted for the UK to remain in the EU; not for NI to do so independently. Arguably, Ireland's actions, in pushing policies that would break up the unity of the UK, are of themselves a breach of at the very least the spirit of the GFA and perhaps the letter of it.

    That is an absolutely grotesque distortion of Ireland's position. Ireland has stated very clearly that it's preferred outcome would be for the UK as a whole to remain in the single market and customs union and that any form of Brexit is bad for them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,627
    On the subject of housing, help to buy, etc. etc. etc...

    People occupy homes. There is a general view in the UK that it is better that they own these homes. (People who own houses tend to be more responsible, it's good to give people equity and a stake in society etc. On the other hand, they tend to save less - because they believe in ever rising house prices - and if there is a sustained period of time when house prices fall in value, then labour mobility can be much reduced.)

    But let us go with the view that it is desirable for people to own their own homes.

    We therefore need to make sure that the market operates in such a way that:

    (a) there are sufficient homes available for people who only want one home
    (b) that it is affordable for people to own homes

    With regards to (a), there is clearly a supply and a demand portion. Increasing supply means encouraging building of new homes, especially in areas where there is lots of demand growth. Decreasing demand means improving the efficiency of the the market: perhaps by encouraging older people to trade down (no stamp duty on people trading down?). It also means having a tax and benefits system that makes it financially advantageous for people to
    stay married (slower new household formation). Finally, of course, it means that population growth needs to be curtailed, with restricting immigration more politically palatable than euthanasia.

    Looking at (b), the important bit is to rebalance demand between landlords and owner occupiers, by adjusting the tax system appropriately. However, it's equally important to do this while remembering that some people want to rent because their jobs move them around a lot. Reducing labour mobility by jamming up the private rental market is not good for the economy generally.

    You need to tackle all these things in a joined up way.
  • Barnesian said:

    welshowl said:

    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    They are rattling the cage at present because they think it's probably the best time (prior to trade negs) to get something in from the UK as the pressure might build on them after that to fall in line.

    As for sticking a border in the Irish sea? How likely would the French put one between Nice and Corsica? Why would the Conservative (and Unionist party) sell out NI anyway, let alone the DUP with the current Parliamentary arithmetic?

    There is some constraint on the DUP though not to push it all to the nth degree given the chances of another GE resulting in the perfect sweet spot they are now in are pretty remote.

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)

    The border in the Irish Sea would be transparent and frictionless using the same technology proposed by the UK for the border between North and South so it's not a big deal logistically (allegedly).

    Politically the DUP won't like it (slippery slope) though they do want an open border with the ROI.

    Two options for the DUP.

    1. Trenchantly oppose the border in the Irish Sea and risk a hard Brexit or the UK Government
    looking for support elsewhere in Parliament for the Irish Sea border solution.
    2. Push for a customs union for the whole of the UK with others in Parliament and defeat the Government on this point so solving the Irish border problem without introducing a transparent frictionless border in the Irish Sea.
    Membership of the customs union of itself shouldn't really be a red line - who really believes in those wonderful new trade deals. The problem is the regulatory convergence that the EU is insisting on, which would inevitably mean the UK following all EU legislation - hence, falling foul of the very legitimate 'sovereignty' red lines.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519

    Barnesian said:

    welshowl said:

    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    They are rattling the cage at present because they think it's probably the best time (prior to trade negs) to get something in from the UK as the pressure might build on them after that to fall in line.

    As for sticking a border in the Irish sea? How likely would the French put one between Nice and Corsica? Why would the Conservative (and Unionist party) sell out NI anyway, let alone the DUP with the current Parliamentary arithmetic?

    There is some constraint on the DUP though not to push it all to the nth degree given the chances of another GE resulting in the perfect sweet spot they are now in are pretty remote.

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)

    The border in the Irish Sea would be transparent and frictionless using the same technology proposed by the UK for the border between North and South so it's not a big deal logistically (allegedly).

    Politically the DUP won't like it (slippery slope) though they do want an open border with the ROI.

    Two options for the DUP.

    1. Trenchantly oppose the border in the Irish Sea and risk a hard Brexit or the UK Government
    looking for support elsewhere in Parliament for the Irish Sea border solution.
    2. Push for a customs union for the whole of the UK with others in Parliament and defeat the Government on this point so solving the Irish border problem without introducing a transparent frictionless border in the Irish Sea.
    Membership of the customs union of itself shouldn't really be a red line - who really believes in those wonderful new trade deals. The problem is the regulatory convergence that the EU is insisting on, which would inevitably mean the UK following all EU legislation - hence, falling foul of the very legitimate 'sovereignty' red lines.
    Yes, I don't see how any UK government could give a guarantee that there will never be any regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the EU.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953

    Barnesian said:

    welshowl said:

    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    They are rattling the cage at present because they think it's probably the best time (prior to trade negs) to get something in from the UK as the pressure might build on them after that to fall in line.

    As for sticking a border in the Irish sea? How likely would the French put one between Nice and Corsica? Why would the Conservative (and Unionist party) sell out NI anyway, let alone the DUP with the current Parliamentary arithmetic?

    There is some constraint on the DUP though not to push it all to the nth degree given the chances of another GE resulting in the perfect sweet spot they are now in are pretty remote.

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)

    The border in the Irish Sea would be transparent and frictionless using the same technology proposed by the UK for the border between North and South so it's not a big deal logistically (allegedly).

    Politically the DUP won't like it (slippery slope) though they do want an open border with the ROI.

    Two options for the DUP.

    1. Trenchantly oppose the border in the Irish Sea and risk a hard Brexit or the UK Government
    looking for support elsewhere in Parliament for the Irish Sea border solution.
    2. Push for a customs union for the whole of the UK with others in Parliament and defeat the Government on this point so solving the Irish border problem without introducing a transparent frictionless border in the Irish Sea.
    Membership of the customs union of itself shouldn't really be a red line - who really believes in those wonderful new trade deals. The problem is the regulatory convergence that the EU is insisting on, which would inevitably mean the UK following all EU legislation - hence, falling foul of the very legitimate 'sovereignty' red lines.
    And what if, say, the Scottish parliament wanted to adopt all EU regulations pertaining to the single market on an ongoing basis. Would that be against your red line?
  • It's not what the people of NI voted for - they voted for the UK to remain in the EU; not for NI to do so independently. Arguably, Ireland's actions, in pushing policies that would break up the unity of the UK, are of themselves a breach of at the very least the spirit of the GFA and perhaps the letter of it.

    That is an absolutely grotesque distortion of Ireland's position. Ireland has stated very clearly that it's preferred outcome would be for the UK as a whole to remain in the single market and customs union and that any form of Brexit is bad for them.
    And they've also argued for N Ireland alone to remain in the SM and CU. That means placing a border between GB and Ireland, and no border within Ireland, with intra-Ireland trade carried on under a single regulatory regulatory regime, different from the one in GB. That looks very much like a transfer of sovereignty to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,098

    Pong said:

    Jeezuz. Property prices go up by more than the stamp duty but you can now borrow more money to buy the thing that's gone up in price.

    According to the IFS, you've gained.

    No. No you haven't.

    Your future children - who you probably won't be able to afford to bring into the world - are weeping.

    You are not going to consume the house. You own it.
    I think the houses are going to consume me !

    Just had a massive panic attack about my own chain :/.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,953

    It's not what the people of NI voted for - they voted for the UK to remain in the EU; not for NI to do so independently. Arguably, Ireland's actions, in pushing policies that would break up the unity of the UK, are of themselves a breach of at the very least the spirit of the GFA and perhaps the letter of it.

    That is an absolutely grotesque distortion of Ireland's position. Ireland has stated very clearly that it's preferred outcome would be for the UK as a whole to remain in the single market and customs union and that any form of Brexit is bad for them.
    And they've also argued for N Ireland alone to remain in the SM and CU. That means placing a border between GB and Ireland, and no border within Ireland, with intra-Ireland trade carried on under a single regulatory regulatory regime, different from the one in GB. That looks very much like a transfer of sovereignty to me.
    They've argued that that is the alternative to the UK as a whole staying in the SM/CU. Ireland has no interest in seeing GB leave the SM/CU just to create a division within the UK.
  • Barnesian said:

    welshowl said:

    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    They are rattling the cage at present because they think it's probably the best time (prior to trade negs) to get something in from the UK as the pressure might build on them after that to fall in line.

    As for sticking a border in the Irish sea? How likely would the French put one between Nice and Corsica? Why would the Conservative (and Unionist party) sell out NI anyway, let alone the DUP with the current Parliamentary arithmetic?

    There is some constraint on the DUP though not to push it all to the nth degree given the chances of another GE resulting in the perfect sweet spot they are now in are pretty remote.

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)

    The border in the Irish Sea would be transparent and frictionless using the same technology proposed by the UK for the border between North and South so it's not a big deal logistically (allegedly).

    Politically the DUP won't like it (slippery slope) though they do want an open border with the ROI.

    Two options for the DUP.

    1. Trenchantly oppose the border in the Irish Sea and risk a hard Brexit or the UK Government
    looking for support elsewhere in Parliament for the Irish Sea border solution.
    2. Push for a customs union for the whole of the UK with others in Parliament and defeat the Government on this point so solving the Irish border problem without introducing a transparent frictionless border in the Irish Sea.
    Membership of the customs union of itself shouldn't really be a red line - who really believes in those wonderful new trade deals. The problem is the regulatory convergence that the EU is insisting on, which would inevitably mean the UK following all EU legislation - hence, falling foul of the very legitimate 'sovereignty' red lines.
    If you want to join EFTA then you cannot stay in the Customs Union. The two memberships are mutually exclusive because it would prevent EFTA negotiating their own trade deals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,555
    edited November 2017
    Why on earth is it 'astonishing' Roy Moore remains favourite to win the Alabama Senate race?

    Alabama has not had a Democratic Senator since 1992 and has voted Republican at every Presidential election since 1976, one of only 13 US states to do so.

    Instead the race is still almost neck and neck in a state outgoing Senator Jeff Sessions won for the Republicans by about 30% in his last contested Senate race.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama,_2017
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,032
    As with last year Charles Stanely Direct is e-mailing me about a "Black Friday" offer for share dealing :anguished:

    Unless it's Apple shares half off I'm not interested.
  • Sounds like bad news in the Argentine sub search:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-42100620
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,352
    edited November 2017

    Barnesian said:

    welshowl said:

    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    [snip]

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)

    The border in the Irish Sea would be transparent and frictionless using the same technology proposed by the UK for the border between North and South so it's not a big deal logistically (allegedly).

    Politically the DUP won't like it (slippery slope) though they do want an open border with the ROI.

    Two options for the DUP.

    1. Trenchantly oppose the border in the Irish Sea and risk a hard Brexit or the UK Government
    looking for support elsewhere in Parliament for the Irish Sea border solution.
    2. Push for a customs union for the whole of the UK with others in Parliament and defeat the Government on this point so solving the Irish border problem without introducing a transparent frictionless border in the Irish Sea.
    Membership of the customs union of itself shouldn't really be a red line - who really believes in those wonderful new trade deals. The problem is the regulatory convergence that the EU is insisting on, which would inevitably mean the UK following all EU legislation - hence, falling foul of the very legitimate 'sovereignty' red lines.
    If you want to join EFTA then you cannot stay in the Customs Union. The two memberships are mutually exclusive because it would prevent EFTA negotiating their own trade deals.
    That's right. We need to stay in the EEA including CU - but outside the political institutions to "respect" the EU Ref (unless there is a change of heart by the electorate).

    I suspect that would have majority support inside and outside Parliament. There is only a fringe group who fulminate about the ECJ (or even know what it is) and immigration can be fudged/managed.

    Edit: A very long transition would solve it. A very long transition.
  • Mr. Pulpstar, hope it all works out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,555

    rkrkrk said:

    TonyE said:

    What the Irish are hearing in the EU:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/

    Which may explain their boldness.....

    I think it must be remembered that it is in their interests to push this line that 'The UK is Incompetent' whether there is any truth in it or not. Being that the media in the UK is largely either anti Government (Guardian/Indy/BBC) or anti Brexit (Times/FT/Guardian/BBC/Indy) then they know it is a line that is likely to be picked up.

    Undermining confidence in a negotiating adversary is fairly standard practice. This is one way of doing it.
    I don't get this meme of Brexit would be a doddle if it wasn't for those pesky media types.

    If the UK government was anyway competent it would have

    1) Come up with a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem already.

    2) Would never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of the talks, You'd insist the Irish border deal occurs as part of the trade talks, coming up with a border deal seems illogical when you don't know what the trade deal looks like

    David Davis knew this, which is why he promised us the row of the summer over it, then meekly surrendered like the French in 1940
    If the other side is adamant on sequencing it seems daft to kick up a big fuss over it when nothing is agreed until etc.... might as well just get on with it. I think govt made the right call on that one.

    On the Northern Ireland border - I think you're expecting a lot. There is blame but ultimately it's a tricky problem.

    Firstly, remember Cameron told civil servants not to prepare. Then there's the added complication that thanks to your disastrous decision on an early election, you need the DUP to stay in power... so you can't screw them over and have a border in the Irish Sea.
    The Irish position is obviously to try and get NI to remain in the single market and customs union, thus taking a big step on the road to a united Ireland. And it is also what the people of NI voted for at the referendum.

    If they can't get that - and they probably can't - then their fallback is to try and scupper Brexit altogether and this means pushing the UK closer to the cliff edge.

    Perfectly logical for Ireland to take this position - and perfectly illogical, though not surprising, that the UK government seems not to have anticipated or prepared for them to do so.
    The people of Northern Ireland twice have the DUP most votes and seats even after Brexit, they put Unionism first unlike diehard Remainers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,555
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    welshowl said:

    The problem for the Irish is though the "cliff" for the UK as it is called in some quarters is the "cliff" for them too, with the added problem that if they are the last road block to a comprehensive deal that does fail, they will not be the blue eyed boys of the EU, for all protestations of solidarity of the 27, and they will have earned the serious displeasure of the UK which wont end well for them given a big chunk (40%?) of their agricultural exports at the least come our way and a very very large proportion of their EU trade has to cross us to get to its markets. They also end up with a hard border which is precisely what they (nor anyone else too) wants.

    [snip]

    Probably good to buy shares in the Rosslare to France ferries (all two of them?), as the Irish stare down how vulnerable they really are if this goes badly sour, and look for way round it (literally!)

    The border in the Irish Sea would be transparent and frictionless using the same technology proposed by the UK for the border between North and South so it's not a big deal logistically (allegedly).

    Politically the DUP won't like it (slippery slope) though they do want an open border with the ROI.

    Two options for the DUP.

    1. Trenchantly oppose the border in the Irish Sea and risk ish Sea.
    Membership of the customs union of itself shouldn't really be a red line - who really believes in those wonderful new trade deals. The problem is the regulatory convergence that the EU is insisting on, which would inevitably mean the UK following all EU legislation - hence, falling foul of the very legitimate 'sovereignty' red lines.
    If you want to join EFTA then you cannot stay in the Customs Union. The two memberships are mutually exclusive because it would prevent EFTA negotiating their own trade deals.
    That's right. We need to stay in the EEA including CU - but outside the political institutions to "respect" the EU Ref (unless there is a change of heart by the electorate).

    I suspect that would have majority support inside and outside Parliament. There is only a fringe group who fulminate about the ECJ (or even know what it is) and immigration can be fudged/managed.

    Edit: A very long transition would solve it. A very long transition.
    Keeping free movement as now would not respect the Leave vote given Leave would not have got 52% without promising to end it.
  • Barnesian said:

    That's right. We need to stay in the EEA including CU - but outside the political institutions to "respect" the EU Ref (unless there is a change of heart by the electorate).

    I suspect that would have majority support inside and outside Parliament. There is only a fringe group who fulminate about the ECJ (or even know what it is) and immigration can be fudged/managed.

    Edit: A very long transition would solve it. A very long transition.

    That is absolutely ridiculous and would satisfy nobody who thought for more than 5 seconds on the subject.

    Being inside the EEA and CU we would be under all the restrictions that made people against the EU but without any element of control via being able to vote on issues within the EU. We would have all the negatives of EU membership without the positives.

    There is no way to manage immigration or anything else inside the EEA and CU as the EEA has the full Free Movement requirements that the EU has.
This discussion has been closed.