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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With speculation that Michael Flynn is cooperating with Robert

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 24 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With speculation that Michael Flynn is cooperating with Robert Mueller punters think Trump won’t serve a full term

This has the potential to be so much fun. 'A Split From Trump Indicates That Flynn Is Moving to Cooperate With Mueller.' https://t.co/gIpUfeW6An

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    First!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,988
    Fecund!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Furred
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Ooh another thread about sore losers.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    TGOHF said:

    Ooh another thread about sore losers.

    And even worse: sore winners!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,988
    Pulpstar said:

    Furred

    I heard about your sort. Where do you fall on the spectrum?

    https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg

    ;)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    fpt

    Good effort @Charles that looks a v worthwhile endeavour.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,621
    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    edited November 24

    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.

    Fourth from the left.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    Pulpstar said:

    Furred

    You weren't wrong.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    Nick P's clearly on a shared computer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Good effort @Charles that looks a v worthwhile endeavour.

    It is. A charity of which I was a Trustee tried to work with one of their nominees. Didn’t because his situation changed, but the signs were good.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    Nick P's clearly on a shared computer.

    Perhaps he just loves Mrs Slocum's cat
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 716
    edited November 24
    The Church of England committee choosing the next Bishop of London is due to make their decision next week,

    Does anyone have any insight or betting tips?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.

    They were the closest to the result though.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,632

    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.

    errmmmmm
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Re the Mike Flynn video; Oscar Wilde and the heart of stone quote applies, doersn’t it!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 756
    Pulpstar said:

    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    https://pm1.narvii.com/6051/de57e04e8efcfb360b5c9bc685e5d4404da5adc4_hq.jpg

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.

    Fourth from the left.
    Yes, but where is Damian Green? Far right? ;)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Good effort @Charles that looks a v worthwhile endeavour.

    Thanks.

    Get your institution to invest... :wink:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    On topic ish

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/20/bill-clinton-facing-four-sexual-assault-lawsuits-fresh-allegations/

    "It is not clear exactly when the assaults are alleged to have taken place but they date from after Mr Clinton left the White House in 2001, according to the sources."
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    edited November 24

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.

    Why might the UK do that? Firstly because it is committed to a Soft Brexit in Northern Ireland, with no Irish Sea border. Some commentators reckon this position is incoherent and the UK will have to choose between Soft Brexit across the British Isles, Hard Brexit in Northern Ireland too and the Sea border control. If that's the case and it encourages a Soft Brexit across the British Isles, it's a maximum win for the Irish position. If it encourages a Soft Brexit in Northern Ireland with a sea border control it's still a win.

    The UK has good reasons to go for a Soft Brexit, as well as some reasons for not doing so. Th decision is more balanced than the UK government currently makes it out to be.

    Why might the UK choose no deal over Soft Brexit? Mainly because they think the Irish are bluffing. No deal is even worse for Ireland than Hard Brexit. The British reckon the EU and Ireland prefer a bad deal, ie Hard Brexit, over no deal.

    A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.

    My second observation is I don't think the Unionists have the numbers in Northern Ireland for a hard line. I am not even sure they all want one themselves. While Unionist parties still have slightly more support than Nationalist parties, non-aligned parties, ie Alliance and Greens, now make up more than the difference. These parties are in favour of pan-Ireland integration
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Good effort @Charles that looks a v worthwhile endeavour.

    Thanks.

    Get your institution to invest... :wink:
    I don't think I have an institution!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.
    Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.

    Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 89
    FF43 said:



    My second observation is I don't think the Unionists have the numbers in Northern Ireland for a hard line. I am not even sure they all want one themselves. While Unionist parties still have slightly more support than Nationalist parties, non-aligned parties, ie Alliance and Greens, now make up more than the difference. These parties are in favour of pan-Ireland integration

    Northern Irish opinion is clear that it wants to stay in the Union. Polls suggest 70%+ would vote for this. Polls are virtually unchanged since Brexit. Roughly half of Catholics and nearly all from traditionally Unionist communities would vote for this.

    Even if the UK delivered a Brexit which was unpopular in NI, there is no sign of this changing.

    What there are signs of is continental politicians failing to understand UK politics. As in Scotland, a vote for Remain does not mean that people are hung up on it. Sure, in NI, a small majority would have rathered stay in the EU. But their support for the UK is much stronger.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    edited November 24
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.
    Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.

    Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
    If the Irish do have a GE.... and it looks reasonably likely ...... presumably one or other of the major parties, or possibly both, will campaign on No border with NI. SF, I’m sure will. So we could get an Irish government committed to the current arrangements, as a recent manifesto committment..
    Could get tricky.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    There are differential taxes on alcohol, petrol and ciggies across the border at present and yet Dublin lives with that.

    Suspect their problem with a new invisible border would also become invisible if the Uk offered the RoI mucho €€€.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    tim80 said:

    Even if the UK delivered a Brexit which was unpopular in NI, there is no sign of this changing.

    The UK cannot deliver such a Brexit because it doesn't have the capacity to impose it.

    Ultimately it's seeing the UK humbled that will have the most far-reaching consequences for the viability of unionism as a coherent political force.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    tim80 said:

    FF43 said:



    My second observation is I don't think the Unionists have the numbers in Northern Ireland for a hard line. I am not even sure they all want one themselves. While Unionist parties still have slightly more support than Nationalist parties, non-aligned parties, ie Alliance and Greens, now make up more than the difference. These parties are in favour of pan-Ireland integration

    Northern Irish opinion is clear that it wants to stay in the Union. Polls suggest 70%+ would vote for this. Polls are virtually unchanged since Brexit. Roughly half of Catholics and nearly all from traditionally Unionist communities would vote for this.

    Even if the UK delivered a Brexit which was unpopular in NI, there is no sign of this changing.

    What there are signs of is continental politicians failing to understand UK politics. As in Scotland, a vote for Remain does not mean that people are hung up on it. Sure, in NI, a small majority would have rathered stay in the EU. But their support for the UK is much stronger.
    I meant pan-Irish integration in a looser sense than whether the Tricolour flies over Belfast City Hall. The two are somewhat linked in that a Unionist hardline makes Northern Irish exceptionalism more difficult to maintain. The border is essential in maintaining an Northern Irish identity, but thinking Unionists - and they do exist - should also see the value of keeping that border ambiguous when they are heading into a minority.

    I am reasonably optimistic that Northern Ireland won't revert to the bad old days because of Brexit. What I think is more likely is that a conscious wish NOT to return to those days will result in greater Irish integration.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,143
    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.

    ... snip ...
    Ms May is facing intense pressure from both Belfast and Dublin to find a solution amid threats that Ireland will try to block EU trade talks if it is does not receive further assurances that there would be no "hard border".
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-customs-union-stay-negotiations-theresa-may-trade-single-market-eu-latest-a8073466.html

    The Irish threat is to ensure a hard border by vetoing a trade deal unless the Brits guarantee no hard border. I hereby name this negotiating manoeuvre the "Irish self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit".




  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,621

    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    (er no)

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.

    errmmmmm
    Oops!

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,573

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.
    Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.

    Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
    If the Irish do have a GE.... and it looks reasonably likely ...... presumably one or other of the major parties, or possibly both, will campaign on No border with NI. SF, I’m sure will. So we could get an Irish government committed to the current arrangements, as a recent manifesto committment..
    Could get tricky.
    It is always tricky to offer something that is not in your control or competence!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    edited November 24
    FF43 said:

    The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.

    No, it's completely irrational. The UK has been asking for a soft Brexit for well over a year. The more ambitious the trade deal (if any), the less the Irish border is an issue. The worst possible outcome for the Irish is a chaotic crash-out to WTO terms, and the second worst is a smooth transition to WTO terms. That applies both to the border questions specifically, and to the economic relationship with the UK generally.

    Their logical approach would be (a) to get the UK and the other 26 countries to commit to as soft a border as possible (done, everyone agrees on that), and then (b) to encourage the other 26 countries to get on ASAP with agreeing a trade deal so that the border question can be fitted into the framework and arrangements put in place for the smoothest possible transition.

    As it is, they are making a literally impossible demand of the UK: a guarantee from the UK that the EU and the Republic won't impose a hard border. No wonder UK negotiators are bewildered.

    Time is running out. If this isn't all resolved with a very few weeks the UK will have no option but to give up on trade talks and use the remaining dwindling time to concentrate on minimising cliff-edge disruption to the UK economy. The Irish will be collateral damage in that scenario.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291

    tim80 said:

    Even if the UK delivered a Brexit which was unpopular in NI, there is no sign of this changing.

    Ultimately it's seeing the UK humbled that will have the most far-reaching consequences for the viability of unionism as a coherent political force.
    Yes - I'd imagine that the entire Uk will all unilaterally rise up and demand that the Uk becomes a new federal area of Germany and be happy to pay £100Bn per annum for the privilege.

    Winning world cups will just be one of the legion of benefits.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    geoffw said:

    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.

    ... snip ...
    Ms May is facing intense pressure from both Belfast and Dublin to find a solution amid threats that Ireland will try to block EU trade talks if it is does not receive further assurances that there would be no "hard border".
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-customs-union-stay-negotiations-theresa-may-trade-single-market-eu-latest-a8073466.html

    The Irish threat is to ensure a hard border by vetoing a trade deal unless the Brits guarantee no hard border. I hereby name this negotiating manoeuvre the "Irish self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit".
    I explained why this isn't a self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit in the ... snip ... section :). The Irish want Soft Brexit while the UK says it doesn't. So they are rejecting a Hard Brexit deal and forcing the UK to choose between a Soft Brexit deal or No Deal. It's rational. Whether this will work or blow up in their faces is another matter.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    philiph said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.
    Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.

    Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
    If the Irish do have a GE.... and it looks reasonably likely ...... presumably one or other of the major parties, or possibly both, will campaign on No border with NI. SF, I’m sure will. So we could get an Irish government committed to the current arrangements, as a recent manifesto committment..
    Could get tricky.
    It is always tricky to offer something that is not in your control or competence!
    Indeed it is. As those leavers who offered an easy, cost free Brexit, should know!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339

    As it is, they are making a literally impossible demand of the UK: a guarantee from the UK that the EU and the Republic won't impose a hard border. No wonder UK negotiators are bewildered.

    Well, there is one literally possible solution to that
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    Time is running out. If this isn't all resolved with a very few weeks the UK will have no option but to give up on trade talks and use the remaining dwindling time to concentrate on minimising cliff-edge disruption to the UK economy. The Irish will be collateral damage in that scenario.

    By invoking Article 50, the UK put its future in Europe in the broadest sense on the negotiating table. Too many people haven't yet understood that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.

    It was under Kenny that the negotiating guidelines that are now being implemented were drafted and unanimously agreed.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    TGOHF said:

    tim80 said:

    Even if the UK delivered a Brexit which was unpopular in NI, there is no sign of this changing.

    Ultimately it's seeing the UK humbled that will have the most far-reaching consequences for the viability of unionism as a coherent political force.
    Yes - I'd imagine that the entire Uk will all unilaterally rise up and demand that the Uk becomes a new federal area of Germany and be happy to pay £100Bn per annum for the privilege.

    Winning world cups will just be one of the legion of benefits.
    The UK Prime Minister goes as a supplicant to Brussels to beg for progress toward a deal. Meanwhile the Irish flex their muscles and threaten to derail the whole UK strategy - something they have the power to do.

    The UK loses its judge on the world court and is ignominiously kicked out of the City of Culture process.

    This is already a humbling process and it will get much worse before it gets better.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    (er no)

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.

    errmmmmm
    Oops!

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
    A GE on those figues would an even more Hung Bundestag.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    edited November 24

    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.

    It was under Kenny that the negotiating guidelines that are now being implemented were drafted and unanimously agreed.
    Yes, that's part (a) of what should have been their position in my post of 2:52. The problem is that, instead of going on to logical step (b), they've stubbornly decided to sit down in the ditch and not move until the UK guarantees that they won't get a wet bum.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.

    He might not be there for much longer.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    FWIW:

    A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: Hamilton looking good, but otherwise quite tight.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    MaxPB said:

    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.

    He might not be there for much longer.
    True, but another few months will have passed. They need to get this moving to trade talks now, if they want to avoid border problems.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    The Donald would just grab him by the scythe.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,143
    FF43 said:

    geoffw said:

    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.

    ... snip ...
    Ms May is facing intense pressure from both Belfast and Dublin to find a solution amid threats that Ireland will try to block EU trade talks if it is does not receive further assurances that there would be no "hard border".
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-customs-union-stay-negotiations-theresa-may-trade-single-market-eu-latest-a8073466.html

    The Irish threat is to ensure a hard border by vetoing a trade deal unless the Brits guarantee no hard border. I hereby name this negotiating manoeuvre the "Irish self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit".
    I explained why this isn't a self-flummoxing bamboozlement gambit in the ... snip ... section :). The Irish want Soft Brexit while the UK says it doesn't. So they are rejecting a Hard Brexit deal and forcing the UK to choose between a Soft Brexit deal or No Deal. It's rational. Whether this will work or blow up in their faces is another matter.
    Perhaps they could take it even further and declare that they will switch traffic to the right if the Brits can't guarantee free movement at the border.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,573

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    Is there a defined process for impeachment, including a timescale? If not I doubt if he has to be far into the first term to be able to neuter any attempt at impeachment by tactics, legal appeals and general shenanigans.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    MaxPB said:

    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.

    He might not be there for much longer.
    True, but another few months will have passed. They need to get this moving to trade talks now, if they want to avoid border problems.
    Agreed, but I think the EU might be more inclined to ignore him if they know he's not going to be there for very long. Especially if it looks like he is going to lose, though I make no proclamations about that.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,573

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    The Donald would just grab him by the scythe.
    And reap him?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    Agreed.

    If he is to be forced from office, it is most likely due to a health issue. Now, he's not the fittest looking 71 year old around, and the Presidency is a demanding job. So, I'd reckon there's a non-trivial risk of a major health issue in the next three years. But still, the chances can't be more than 20% or so.

    The risks of impeachment, as you say, are currently very low. It would need to be something so big that the Republicans in the Senate were willing to say to their own constituents, "hey, we're voting to get rid of your nominee." Now it's possible such a thing happens. But it's not a 20% shot, it's maybe 5%.

    So, continue to bet on Mr Trump remaining President for the next three years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    FWIW:

    A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
    But it's not just death that could see him depart: it's any number of non-trivial health issues, such a heart attack, stroke, or cancer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    MaxPB said:

    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.

    He might not be there for much longer.
    True, but another few months will have passed. They need to get this moving to trade talks now, if they want to avoid border problems.
    A full status quo transition, assuming it's legally possible, just requires the UK to sign on the dotted line. Nobody has yet lost by calling Theresa May's bluff.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    FWIW:

    A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
    I'd want to know what those statistics were for those in the upper echelons of US society. I'd expect the rates would be far lower.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,105
    Congrats @Charles - a very worthwhile initiative. I hope it continues to grow as you hope.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    FWIW:

    A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
    I'd want to know what those statistics were for those in the upper echelons of US society. I'd expect the rates would be far lower.
    From a discussion here:

    https://verdict.justia.com/2017/02/02/youre-fired-four-ways-donald-trumps-presidency-might-not-last-four-years

    Presidents do seem to have good longevity, and the Donald is a teetotal nonsmoker, but on the otherhand is obese and physically inactive. He doesnt seem to have medical issues, but on the other hand doesn't seem interested in seeing my colleagues prophylacticly.

  • On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    Doesn't it depend on how long Putin wants him to stay in office, Alastair?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963

    New German poll, from INSA, which tends to rate AfD higher and CDU lower than other pollsters:

    (er no)

    Still MOE but marginally encouraging for Merkel.

    errmmmmm
    Oops!

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
    The trouble is that, unless there is a very big shift in the polling (which doesn't seem likely), another German election is not going to resolve anything; there will still be no realistic prospect of forming a majority except by a 'grand' or 'Jamaica' coalition, as now.

    That suggests to me that there will be some kind of deal to resolve it without another election.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    FWIW:

    A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
    I'd want to know what those statistics were for those in the upper echelons of US society. I'd expect the rates would be far lower.
    From a discussion here:

    https://verdict.justia.com/2017/02/02/youre-fired-four-ways-donald-trumps-presidency-might-not-last-four-years

    Presidents do seem to have good longevity, and the Donald is a teetotal nonsmoker, but on the otherhand is obese and physically inactive. He doesnt seem to have medical issues, but on the other hand doesn't seem interested in seeing my colleagues prophylacticly.

    Plays quite a lot of golf, but I expect that for him that doesn’t mean a lot of walking!

    If the Dems win back Alabama that’ll take the Senate to 51:49 with one of the 51 McCain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318

    MaxPB said:

    What's more, this Irish irrationality only started when Leo Varadkar became Taoiseach. Under Kenny they were being very sensible.

    He might not be there for much longer.
    True, but another few months will have passed. They need to get this moving to trade talks now, if they want to avoid border problems.
    See my post above. It is absurd to think that we can cobble together trade talks, even with the best will in the world (which there seems not to be) in the scant few months remaining before E-Day in 2019.

    The government might as well just cut straight to the lorry parks on the A2.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Oh Dear

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4990641/liam-fox-blasts-british-business-and-claims-they-dont-want-to-export-their-goods-and-are-damaging-his-efforts-to-boost-the-economy/

    Liam Fox:
    "I can agree as many trade agreements as I like, but if British business doesn’t want to export, then that doesn’t do us any good."

    Never met anyone who rated him.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    It's Thanksgiving here, which means football.....


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.

    ....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    If we get a decent leave deal with the EU could the 40 year's of argument in the Tory party over our membership of the common market/EU be solved and the arguments turn to the labour party with most MP's/members in the remain camp ?

    Could we be seeing in future years the EU arguments that ripped through the tory party do the same to labour on rejoining the EU ?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    Regarding the Flynn situation, it all depends on whether Flynn can be flipped to reveal shenanigans higher up the chain... everything so far suggests there is no there there (to quote Hedda Hopper on Oakland)
  • welfordwelford Posts: 19
    Everyone is talking about our land border with Ireland, but what about our land border with Spain? As far as I know, Gibraltar is in the single market and will therefore exit with the UK in 2019 (a reason they voted heavily for remain), but I haven't heard anything about how it's going to be handled. It would seem reasonable that Gibraltar could stay in the single market and customs could be imposed between it and the UK, but I guess the Spanish may veto any deal that helps Gibraltar out - they think it should be annexed by them....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Tim_B said:

    It's Thanksgiving here, which means football.....


    #Freezeke
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    Pulpstar said:

    Tim_B said:

    It's Thanksgiving here, which means football.....


    #Freezeke
    Not gonna happen. Of course, I am not a fan.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366

    If we get a decent leave deal with the EU could the 40 year's of argument in the Tory party over our membership of the common market/EU be solved and the arguments turn to the labour party with most MP's/members in the remain camp ?

    Could we be seeing in future years the EU arguments that ripped through the tory party do the same to labour on rejoining the EU ?

    You've moved your cart several hundred yards in front of your horse there.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749

    If we get a decent leave deal with the EU could the 40 year's of argument in the Tory party over our membership of the common market/EU be solved and the arguments turn to the labour party with most MP's/members in the remain camp ?

    Could we be seeing in future years the EU arguments that ripped through the tory party do the same to labour on rejoining the EU ?

    You've moved your cart several hundred yards in front of your horse there.
    ;-) yep

    Well this week in the labour ranks reminded me of the Tories in the past over the EU.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Blimey, just seen about the Egypt attack. Over 230 dead.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42110223
  • MJWMJW Posts: 230

    FF43 said:

    The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.


    Their logical approach would be (a) to get the UK and the other 26 countries to commit to as soft a border as possible (done, everyone agrees on that), and then (b) to encourage the other 26 countries to get on ASAP with agreeing a trade deal so that the border question can be fitted into the framework and arrangements put in place for the smoothest possible transition.

    As it is, they are making a literally impossible demand of the UK: a guarantee from the UK that the EU and the Republic won't impose a hard border. No wonder UK negotiators are bewildered.

    Time is running out. If this isn't all resolved with a very few weeks the UK will have no option but to give up on trade talks and use the remaining dwindling time to concentrate on minimising cliff-edge disruption to the UK economy. The Irish will be collateral damage in that scenario.
    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312
    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    Here's Kate Hoey showing how they do it...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    FWIW:

    A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
    I'd want to know what those statistics were for those in the upper echelons of US society. I'd expect the rates would be far lower.
    From a discussion here:

    https://verdict.justia.com/2017/02/02/youre-fired-four-ways-donald-trumps-presidency-might-not-last-four-years

    Presidents do seem to have good longevity, and the Donald is a teetotal nonsmoker, but on the otherhand is obese and physically inactive. He doesnt seem to have medical issues, but on the other hand doesn't seem interested in seeing my colleagues prophylacticly.

    Plays quite a lot of golf, but I expect that for him that doesn’t mean a lot of walking!

    If the Dems win back Alabama that’ll take the Senate to 51:49 with one of the 51 McCain.
    True, but the VP breaks the deadlock. So, the Dems have to flip two Republicans.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312

    Mr. Pulpstar, to be fair, I'm sure lots of businesses are vindictively refusing to make more profit to annoy Liam Fox.

    ....

    I hold by my view that in 25 years time, Dr Liam Fox will be regarded as the least able member of the British government in this period.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    And they have a hard border with EU countries. Customs checks, border posts, the lot. This would not be acceptable to the Irish.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    And as you know are in the mother of all battles around ECJ oversight. Plus there's the FOM thingy. We are rejecting that as a starting position. Apparently.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic (because even I can OD on Brexit), I still think the odds favour Donald Trump seeing out his term of office. With the Republicans controlling Congress, I can't see enough breaking ranks to dump him. As for a resignation, who do you think you're fooling? He's got the presidential seal. He's up on the presidential podium. And he loves himself.

    There is the Grim Reaper too.

    FWIW:

    A 71-year-old American male has about a 2.6% chance of dying in the next year. This figure steadily creeps up with each year, to 3.3% in Year 4. The total cumulative chance of succumbing to the actuarial reaper within four years is a far-from-negligible 11.3%
    I'd want to know what those statistics were for those in the upper echelons of US society. I'd expect the rates would be far lower.
    From a discussion here:

    https://verdict.justia.com/2017/02/02/youre-fired-four-ways-donald-trumps-presidency-might-not-last-four-years

    Presidents do seem to have good longevity, and the Donald is a teetotal nonsmoker, but on the otherhand is obese and physically inactive. He doesnt seem to have medical issues, but on the other hand doesn't seem interested in seeing my colleagues prophylacticly.

    Plays quite a lot of golf, but I expect that for him that doesn’t mean a lot of walking!

    If the Dems win back Alabama that’ll take the Senate to 51:49 with one of the 51 McCain.
    True, but the VP breaks the deadlock. So, the Dems have to flip two Republicans.
    A journey of a 1000 miles starts.....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    edited November 24
    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    Well, we are leaving the EU. That is the fact on the ground. The ones who are acting like screaming toddlers are the Irish, who are blocking talks which would mitigate the damage.

    If the Irish and the EU don't like the consequences of their own rules, then they either have to put up with it, change the rules, or at least open negotiations on how the future relationship can be made to work. The UK government can't stop them putting up a hard border if they want to, and it's certainly not going to halt Brexit because the Irish don't like it, still less because the Irish refuse to accept the UK's desire to get on with discussing how to make it work in everyone's interest.

    We seem to have gone from the position where the Brexiteers were irrational, before the referendum, to a position now where the EU27 and especially the Irish, most of the UK commentariat, the LibDems, and half of Labour are irrational. It is a most bizarre spectacle.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190

    FF43 said:

    The Irish position is rational. The question is whether it's effective. The Irish want a Soft Brexit. Ideally across the UK, but failing that, in the island of Ireland. They claim to be prepared to reject a Hard Brexit deal. They are raising the stakes to force the UK to choose between no deal and Soft Brexit.

    No, it's completely irrational. The UK has been asking for a soft Brexit for well over a year. The more ambitious the trade deal (if any), the less the Irish border is an issue. The worst possible outcome for the Irish is a chaotic crash-out to WTO terms, and the second worst is a smooth transition to WTO terms. That applies both to the border questions specifically, and to the economic relationship with the UK generally.

    Their logical approach would be (a) to get the UK and the other 26 countries to commit to as soft a border as possible (done, everyone agrees on that), and then (b) to encourage the other 26 countries to get on ASAP with agreeing a trade deal so that the border question can be fitted into the framework and arrangements put in place for the smoothest possible transition.

    As it is, they are making a literally impossible demand of the UK: a guarantee from the UK that the EU and the Republic won't impose a hard border. No wonder UK negotiators are bewildered.

    Time is running out. If this isn't all resolved with a very few weeks the UK will have no option but to give up on trade talks and use the remaining dwindling time to concentrate on minimising cliff-edge disruption to the UK economy. The Irish will be collateral damage in that scenario.
    Whoa! The goalposts have shifted in the Brexiteers' (and we're all Brexiteers now) echo chamber on what "Soft Brexit" means so what you mean by that term is different from how the Irish understand it. The Irish definitions are the useful ones. "Soft Brexit" means Single Market and Customs Union or as near as dammit. "Hard Brexit" is FTA. Those two are deals. And then there is No Deal. Also the UK is being disingenuous with their claims that Hard Brexit, which they say is a Soft Brexit, can have a soft border identical to (genuinely) Soft Brexit or EU membership. We're going to end up in an even bigger mess if we are not clear about those distinctions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited November 24
    Rare agreement between 18 to 24s and over 65s in that a plurality of both age groups support increasing taxes to pay for more spending in the latest yougov post Budget poll.

    By contrast a plurality of 25 to 49 year olds and 50 to 64 year olds want to keep tax rates as they are.

    Overall a majority or plurality support ever Budget measure announced with most support for more NHS spending and least support for extending the young persons' railcard to 26 to 30 year olds.
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/11/24/publics-view-budget-5-charts/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    And as you know are in the mother of all battles around ECJ oversight. Plus there's the FOM thingy. We are rejecting that as a starting position. Apparently.
    We could learn a lot from Switzerland. By requiring the purchase of health insurance and registration with the local police, they maintain enough of free movement to keep the EU (somewhat) happy, while (despite sky high wages and zero unemployment) low skilled immigration runs at a lower rate than in the UK.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. HYUFD, people who pay lots of tax don't want to pay more, people who get most from public spending want more? :p
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    And they have a hard border with EU countries. Customs checks, border posts, the lot. This would not be acceptable to the Irish.
    Customs checks, yes, but I walk through the German border at Lörrach all the time when I'm in Basel. No one ever stops me and I never have to queue up to get a stamp.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    Here's Kate Hoey showing how they do it...
    You joke, but it's true. The biggest issue with crossing the Swiss border is usually the local police insisting you buy a Vignette. (Which, by the way, we should also add as a way of effectively getting foreigners to pay a portion of our road tax.)

    Switzerland is a model for how the Irish border should be handled: no passport checks, electronic manifests, and just a couple of main arteries.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    We seem to have gone from the position where the Brexiteers were irrational, before the referendum, to a position now where the EU27 and especially the Irish, most of the UK commentariat, the LibDems, and half of Labour are irrational. It is a most bizarre spectacle.

    The Brexiteers always thought the rest of the world was mad. The fact that you now agree with them only reflects your own transformation.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    edited November 24
    FF43 said:

    Whoa! The goalposts have shifted in the Brexiteers' (and we're all Brexiteers now) echo chamber on what "Soft Brexit" means so what you mean by that term is different from how the Irish understand it. The Irish definitions are the useful ones. "Soft Brexit" means Single Market and Customs Union or as near as dammit. "Hard Brexit" is FTA. Those two are deals. And then there is No Deal. Also the UK is being disingenuous with their claims that Hard Brexit, which they say is a Soft Brexit, can have a soft border identical to (genuinely) Soft Brexit or EU membership. We're going to end up in an even bigger mess if we are not clear about those distinctions.

    Actually, 'hard Brexit' and 'soft Brexit' are both stupid phrases. We are leaving the EU. The EU insists that we leave the Single Market as part of that, unless we buy straight back in to nearly all the things that prompted people to vote to leave, which is clearly a non-starter. Personally I think there might have been a case for applying for a customs-union deal - but, there again, whose fault is it that zero negotiations on the future relationship are so far taking place? Hint: It's not the UK's fault.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    Mr. HYUFD, people who pay lots of tax don't want to pay more, people who get most from public spending want more? :p

    True enough but does suggest tax could be a way for the Tories to win back middle aged swing voters while Corbyn could make inroads with pensioners by promising them even more freebies as well as protecting the triple lock and all their current allowances.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    And they have a hard border with EU countries. Customs checks, border posts, the lot. This would not be acceptable to the Irish.
    They don't really have a hard border. On the major motorways, they have customs points where there are spot checks. 99.9% of the time, they check that there is an electronic manifest for a given number plate, and assuming there is, then the lorry drives straight through.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    Well, we are leaving the EU. That is the fact on the ground. The ones who are acting like screaming toddlers are the Irish, who are blocking talks which would mitigate the damage.

    If the Irish and the EU don't like the consequences of their own rules, then they either have to put up with it, change the rules, or at least open negotiations on how the future relationship can be made to work. The UK government can't stop them putting up a hard border if they want to, and it's certainly not going to halt Brexit because the Irish don't like it, still less because the Irish refuse to accept the UK's desire to get on with discussing how to make it work in everyone's interest.

    We seem to have gone from the position where the Brexiteers were irrational, before the referendum, to a position now where the EU27 and especially the Irish, most of the UK commentariat, the LibDems, and half of Labour are irrational. It is a most bizarre spectacle.
    We started it. None of our erstwhile EU partners want us to leave. In fact they would far rather we stayed. It’s us Brits who are the screaming toddlers walking out. So it’s up to us to put forward plans which are acceptable to the rest or continue to No Deal and cut off our noses.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144
    There's also a tram that goes through one of the other borders, it doesn't stop for a customs or passport check. The Swiss border with Germany is bloody brilliant. Can't fault it at all.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    Their unified position is identical to the UK one, but bizarrely manifests itself as an apparent willingness to veto their own objective. It's the weirdest position I've ever seen, but, even if they persist with the lunacy, it would derail a Brexit deal, not Brexit, as David H has already pointed out.

    A couple of observations from me. I reckon the UK will end up with Soft Brexit despite current rhetoric from the government. This is a personal take. Others' mileages may vary. The government have been so wrapped in negotiating with each other they haven't faced reality or up to now attempted real negotiations with the parties they supposed to be working with. When they do, they will get more realistic. In the meantime, it is maybe not a good idea to force the issue too hard.
    Whilst undoubtedly true, by the time they stop arguing, look up and see the cliff edge, the easiest response will be "no deal, f*ck it". Even at this late stage the idea of them hammering out a considered, sensible EEA- even FTA-type arrangement beggars belief. If they feel pushed into a corner, that they are unable to ask for an A50 extension, or a transition period, for one reason or another, then they will simply plump to sail off the cliff, Thelma & Louise style.

    Unless they ask for and get a transition or A50 extension in the next three months (because they still have to decide the terms of trade and businesses have to understand them and then act upon them), then no deal it is.
    The Irish could go two ways on that analysis. They decide the British won't agree a Soft Brexit under any circumstances. Best cut their losses and go for a bad deal in preference to no deal. Or they decide the British won't agree, full stop. In which case they might as well go for No Deal and put down a marker for when wiser heads prevail on this side of the Irish Sea.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. HYUFD, ah, but which taxes?

    Everybody wants taxes on Someone Else. Put up VAT and people bleat (and Labour put up angry posters with things like VAT-exempt items such as food on them). Put up income tax and it'd be a tax on ordinary people. Put up National Insurance and it's a tax on jobs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    But this fails to acknowledge the fact that the rest of the EU won't countenance a deal which effectively leaves Ireland as a back door into the customs union - and that any trade deal that's sufficiently close to allow a genuinely soft border will require Britain largely agreeing to abide by EU law and terms.

    The UK has been asking for a deal that's soft one way and hard the other - we get tonnes of access, while blocking free movement and getting rid of regulation we don't like. The Irish, as part of the EU 27, know this is a delusional fantasy (as does everyone apart from Brexiteers, it seems), because a country outside the EU, even one with close ties, isn't going to be allowed to agree a deal that undermines the economic deals underpinning of the EU. They'd rather we had the closest possible deal, and the ones that would be best for us - remaining in the EU, or failing that remaining in either the EEA, or EFTA, but those have been ruled out. The UK desire/need to recoup economic losses from Brexit by agreeing other trade deals and agreeing to other countries' standards or demands then makes any additional 'soft border' agreement even more problematic.

    Therefore, it's in the Irish interest to push the issue up the agenda, and make clear what the current ridiculous UK positioning means to talks. They'd much prefer a soft Brexit, but they know that's impossible while the government and Brexiteers continue to act like a bunch of toddlers. They're being as logical as they can be when dealing with a UK that's defying economic logic by pursuing Brexit in the first place.

    What about Switzerland? They somehow manage to not be in a customs union with the EU, yet be members of Schengen.
    And as you know are in the mother of all battles around ECJ oversight. Plus there's the FOM thingy. We are rejecting that as a starting position. Apparently.
    We could learn a lot from Switzerland. By requiring the purchase of health insurance and registration with the local police, they maintain enough of free movement to keep the EU (somewhat) happy, while (despite sky high wages and zero unemployment) low skilled immigration runs at a lower rate than in the UK.
    I think it's a case of not wanting or being able to start from there.

    The upcoming third country status ruling should be interesting.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    rcs1000 said:

    You joke, but it's true. The biggest issue with crossing the Swiss border is usually the local police insisting you buy a Vignette. (Which, by the way, we should also add as a way of effectively getting foreigners to pay a portion of our road tax.)

    Switzerland is a model for how the Irish border should be handled: no passport checks, electronic manifests, and just a couple of main arteries.

    The Irish border should be a lot easier, given that it is a fairly small island and there are no easy routes for large-scale commercial smuggling.

    This should be a non-issue, especially since all sides agree on what we're trying to achieve. It is weird how it has become one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,312
    HYUFD said:

    Rare agreement between 18 to 24s and over 65s in that a plurality of both age groups support increasing taxes to pay for more spending in the latest yougov post Budget poll.

    By contrast a plurality of 25 to 49 year olds and 50 to 64 year olds want to keep tax rates as they are.

    Overall a majority or plurality support ever Budget measure announced with most support for more NHS spending and least support for extending the young persons' railcard to 26 to 30 year olds.
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/11/24/publics-view-budget-5-charts/

    It's almost like earning money want to keep taxes down, while those who live off others' handouts want taxes raised to pay for more spending.
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