Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A New Ireland?

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 26 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A New Ireland?

THE OBSERVER FRONT PAGE: Irish warn May: change course or risk Brexit chaos #skypapers pic.twitter.com/6ps0W3Scbx

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    First, and thanks CycleFree!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,685
    It would be unacceptable for there to be any sort of border within the UK.
    It would be undesirable for there to be a hard land border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.
    It would be unacceptable for the whole, or part, of the UK to remain in the Single Market or the Customs Union.
    Therefore the most obvious and straightforward solution would be for the whole of Ireland to rejoin the UK.

    Except for the purposes of the Eurovision Sonk Ontest, in which it is mutually beneficial for the UK and R or I to vote for each other.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,340
    This leave voter feels no more guilty for Britain's sins of the past than today's Germans should feel guilt for the Holocaust.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    Excellent piece, Cyclefree. Brexit is certainly messy, divisive and inward looking, do maybe some parallels with the Ireland of mid 20th century.

    Ireland is damaged by Brexit and is prepared to play hardball using the leverage afforded to it by membership of the EU, ironically, against a United Kingdom diminished by the loss of it.

    "There is no word for schadenfraude in Gaelic" was a challenge I had to take, so have come up with àgh millteach (Scots Gaelic) which does seem to mean schadenfreude. Take that as you will.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    JohnLoony said:

    It would be unacceptable for there to be any sort of border within the UK.
    It would be undesirable for there to be a hard land border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.
    It would be unacceptable for the whole, or part, of the UK to remain in the Single Market or the Customs Union.
    Therefore the most obvious and straightforward solution would be for the whole of Ireland to rejoin the UK.

    Which is the most unacceptable thing of all from the Irish POV.

    Hard border or CU including all the UK are the most likely outcomes. Ireland is pushing for the second by threatening no deal if there's no regulatory conformance of the North with the EU, but they really want a UK Soft Brexit. The Conservative government is not going to agree that just to help Northern Ireland, which voted Remain in the referendum. There are good reasons for the UK to stay in the Customs Union. Which makes me think the Irish would be better to play a longer game. Be firm on the transition, where the UK stays in the Single Market and Customs Union and vague on the end arrangement. By then the Irish may not need use their veto on the deal.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    170 the target, should be gettable. Oh, and lay the draw.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    FF43 said:

    JohnLoony said:

    It would be unacceptable for there to be any sort of border within the UK.
    It would be undesirable for there to be a hard land border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.
    It would be unacceptable for the whole, or part, of the UK to remain in the Single Market or the Customs Union.
    Therefore the most obvious and straightforward solution would be for the whole of Ireland to rejoin the UK.

    Which is the most unacceptable thing of all from the Irish POV.

    Hard border or CU including all the UK are the most likely outcomes. Ireland is pushing for the second by threatening no deal if there's no regulatory conformance of the North with the EU, but they really want a UK Soft Brexit. The Conservative government is not going to agree that just to help Northern Ireland, which voted Remain in the referendum. There are good reasons for the UK to stay in the Customs Union. Which makes me think the Irish would be better to play a longer game. Be firm on the transition, where the UK stays in the Single Market and Customs Union and vague on the end arrangement. By then the Irish may not need use their veto on the deal.

    That depends on the extent to which the end state needs to be signed off during the negotiations?
  • Best to ignore our Irish cousins. They are no match for us.

    I do fear for their sanity: 30% of their economy is a confluence of US re-imports, many of which are UK-bound. Keeping the CTA and a WTO solution on intra-Ireland trade is the only sensible solution.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    edited November 26
    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,313

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Never attribute to malice, that which is adequately explained by incompetence.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    Very good header cyclefree. I've always thought Brexit-apart from the racists from the northern towns-was driven by those who long for the lost Empire. So quite ironic and a shadenfreude for more than just the Irish.
  • rcs1000 said:



    Never attribute to malice, that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

    Well, if we followed that rule when it came to discussing politics, there wouldn't be anything to talk about!
  • Rebourne_FluffyRebourne_Fluffy Posts: 51
    edited November 26
    The Empire begat democracies: The EU opposes them. T'ick commercial-directors laud failed dictators.

    :some-things-never-change:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    The UK's attitude to the problems Brexit throws up in northern Ireland typifies Leavers' whole approach: Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility. The vote to leave the EU does not trump Britain's obligations under the Good Friday Agreement - indeed, its terms were endorsed by two referendum votes as well. "Suck it up losers" does not apply here.

    I appreciate that it is complex for bears of very little brain. But Leavers and the UK government have to do a damn sight better than they have so far on this topic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    The main issue is that we’re not starting from where we were in 1975, or indeed, Good Friday 1998. A lot has happened since then. Indeed, todays Observer contains the following :When the EU taskforce dealing with Brexit and the border “mapped”, or listed, specific areas of collaborative political, economic, security, societal and agricultural activity that could be adversely affected, the total was a staggering 142. They range from co-ordination on the ongoing paramilitary threat to cross-border ambulance services and bus routes.’
    (See https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/26/observer-view-on-irish-border-farce-and-brexit)

    We’ve made the omlettes; we simply can’t go back to the eggs. To suggest we can is simplistic thinking at it’s most basic.
  • Treaties, dear boy; treaties. When treaties lapse so do my views: What do you do...?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Time to sell the Shinner counties West and south of Lough Neagh back to where they belong
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,371
    Pulpstar said:

    Time to sell the Shinner counties West and south of Lough Neagh back to where they belong

    Ridiculously simplistic idea.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    Pulpstar said:

    Time to sell the Shinner counties West and south of Lough Neagh back to where they belong

    Ridiculously simplistic idea.
    Wouldn’t makle much difference to the overall border problems, either.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 357

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Completely agree. History teaches everyone that the EU is a cynical nasty bunch who have unbending belief in their righteousness.
    Nobody is allowed to leave, ever, especially one who's their favourite piggy bank.

    Every day with them exposes how correct the brexit vote was.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: pre-race ramble with the final tip for this season is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/abu-dhabi-pre-race-2017.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    edited November 26
    Sometimes Brexit just seems like a dream. A dream full of GARGOILES you wouldn't want to be withinin a bargepole length of..... Faragists... Rees-Moggists... Neo-con Govists ...Johnsonian Opportunists (greater love has no man than he would lay down his country for his life) ....Hoeyists .... fox hunting sociaists....Trump...Netanyahu

    .......And facing them are the Great and the Good. Those who put the 'CIVIL' into civilisation. The Enlightened the Intellectuals the Creatives the Worthy the Compassionate the Country's finest in every field except vaccum cleaner manufacture....

    The classic tale of La Belle et La Bete.......

    And as everyone knows La Belle always wins in the end...




  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: pre-race ramble with the final tip for this season is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/abu-dhabi-pre-race-2017.html

    Good luck with your bet, I’ll cheer for Ricciardo from the grandstand!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    saddo said:

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Completely agree. History teaches everyone that the EU is a cynical nasty bunch who have unbending belief in their righteousness.
    Nobody is allowed to leave, ever, especially one who's their favourite piggy bank.

    Every day with them exposes how correct the brexit vote was.
    I bet you’re a riot in the playgraound. Everybody wrong except you!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Sandpit, thanks :)

    King Cole, doesn't everybody think everybody else is wrong? If a man thought he was wrong, he'd change his mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    edited November 26
    The Irish border shows up the very poor drafting behind Article 50. It really is not fit for purpose and if it tells us anything, it is that it was never meant to be used.

    But were ARE leaving. If there is no agreement, the EU/Irish positions are royally stuffed. So they might as well talk and come up with something that is their usual fudge. I suggest a "temporary " derogation from their norms, which somehow never gets round to being changed....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    Mr. Sandpit, thanks :)

    King Cole, doesn't everybody think everybody else is wrong? If a man thought he was wrong, he'd change his mind.

    I agree with quite a lot of people! Although as a LD voter, not as many as I’d like to!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    A good summary of how the Ireland issue is tied up in our history as much as our relationship with continental Europe. We cannot live together, but neither can we live apart. Like others on here I have a little Irish heritage, in my case Presbyterian.

    The Irish question is merely the starting point. A frictionless border with the other EU countries is just as essential.

    The EU has no desire to punish or handicap us, merely supporting its own members, as one expects in a union that encompasses a continent, when you include the countries in Single Market or Customs Union. We have it seems ruled out being Norway or Sweden and decided to be Belarus instead.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366
    FF43 said:

    Excellent piece, Cyclefree. Brexit is certainly messy, divisive and inward looking, do maybe some parallels with the Ireland of mid 20th century.

    Ireland is damaged by Brexit and is prepared to play hardball using the leverage afforded to it by membership of the EU, ironically, against a United Kingdom diminished by the loss of it.

    "There is no word for schadenfraude in Gaelic" was a challenge I had to take, so have come up with àgh millteach (Scots Gaelic) which does seem to mean schadenfreude. Take that as you will.

    Is there a Gaelic word for that feeling you get when you have to depend on your neighbours to get one over the Ozzies?
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 4
    Supposing the Irish Republic will not agree to a UK-EU trade deal unless the UK remains in the customs union, we can just leave without a trade deal if we want to.

    The UK - Ireland border will become a hard border like the Greek-Turkish border, the India-Pakistan border, the USA-Mexico border etc. Perhaps a second referendum might need to be held in the UK on the question of the UK-Irish border?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 8,837
    Magic. We will apply magic to the border to keep our obligations under the Good Friday Agreement.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    edited November 26
    Article waffling on the history of how awful the Uk has behaved surprisingly doesn’t mention Dublin’s overt support for the Germans during WWII. Their behaviour during the 70s and 80s towards the terrorist gangster mobs should be to their eternal shame too.

    Strong sense of deja vu for this latest tiff. The ROI are not a home nation and aren’t our friends.
  • The solution to the Irish border problem is obvious.

    We give Northern Ireland to the Republic.

    Solves so many other problems too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited November 26
    Alistair said:

    Magic. We will apply magic to the border to keep our obligations under the Good Friday Agreement.

    Fudge, as the EU usually call it.

    Discussion on the border is moot until the trade agreement is (or isn’t) finalised, then we can discuss what does or doesn’t need to happen between NI and the Republic.

    I’d say that Ireland have the most to lose from ‘no deal’, of all the EU nations. They need to maintain their interests in the discussions yet be careful about overplaying their hand. From the last couple of weeks they sound like they’re desperate for no deal, as if they’ve been listening to those in Britain who think Brexit can somehow be stopped.

    Hopefully common sense will prevail in the end.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847
    Good header, as always.

    After we lost the referendum (I was a eurosceptic remainer and did my bit in the campaign) my reaction, after getting over the initial shock, was as follows:

    1. That is the end of our days as a world power.
    2. That is the end of three decades of policy towards Ireland and the peace process.
    3. This makes Scottish independence a certainty.

    That is before the more down to earth questions, like how will this affect our financial services industry, and how will we be able to manage our economy through the transition. And then: the best part of my working life is probably going to be ruined by this chaos, and I may no longer live and travel around Europe freely which due to my personal circumstances is very important to me.

    But, 1, 2 and 3 always struck me as the most fundamental and intractible issues relating to Brexit which just weren't property explored or understood in the campaign. Number 3, Scotland - we seem to have just managed to blustered our way through; although it is by no means resolved. But 1 and 2 should have be given much more prominence than they have.

    It points to the conclusion that whilst accepting the decision, we should have done a lot more thinking after the vote about these fundamental problems. (In the absence of the thinking taking place before the vote).

    The solution is to just try and bluster our way through each of the problems as they arise and blame someone else when things don't go our way. Ultimately, I cannot see this strategy working. It seems more and more likely that it will just bring us in to conflict with our former allies, which will take a generation to undo.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Divvie, didn't England beat Australia at the rugby last weekend?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    The solution to the Irish border problem is obvious.

    We give Northern Ireland to the Republic.

    Solves so many other problems too.

    Should we be giving back Gibraltar to Spain and the Falklands to Argentina too?
    How about Sheffield to Lancashire while we’re trolling these things?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    fox327 said:

    Supposing the Irish Republic will not agree to a UK-EU trade deal unless the UK remains in the customs union, we can just leave without a trade deal if we want to.

    The UK - Ireland border will become a hard border like the Greek-Turkish border, the India-Pakistan border, the USA-Mexico border etc. Perhaps a second referendum might need to be held in the UK on the question of the UK-Irish border?

    The Greco-Turkish border is not that hard, as there is customs union, and USA/Mexico is within NAFTA.

    There is a significant difference between a planned WTO Brexit (with hard Irish border) and a hostile WTO Brexit.

    I think Cyclefree is right that a retreat into a De Valera insularity is a risk, but even that did have some soft aspects such as the Irish Free State, CTA, UK naval bases and effective currency union. Even now Irish politics is still split FG vs FF, originating in pro and anti treaty forces.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847
    saddo said:

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Completely agree. History teaches everyone that the EU is a cynical nasty bunch who have unbending belief in their righteousness.
    Nobody is allowed to leave, ever, especially one who's their favourite piggy bank.

    Every day with them exposes how correct the brexit vote was.
    A genuine question. Is resuming the civil war in Ireland and its associated costs (principally human costs, also the £ required for policing and security) an acceptable price to pay for creating a more competitive country that is free from the EU?
  • I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited November 26
    Sandpit said:

    The solution to the Irish border problem is obvious.

    We give Northern Ireland to the Republic.

    Solves so many other problems too.

    Should we be giving back Gibraltar to Spain and the Falklands to Argentina too?
    How about Sheffield to Lancashire while we’re trolling these things?
    Not trolling. Mrs May and Boris support taking people away from their homes, this is just a logical extension of that.

    As for Gibraltar, maybe inevitable now thanks to Brexit.

    Spain believes Gibraltar will now fall out of the single market on 29 March 2019. Gibraltar’s prime minister, Fabian Picardo, has previously suggested that a hard Brexit would pose an “existential threat”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/22/gibraltar-heading-for-abrupt-exit-from-single-market-says-spain
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    edited November 26
    nielh said:

    saddo said:

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Completely agree. History teaches everyone that the EU is a cynical nasty bunch who have unbending belief in their righteousness.
    Nobody is allowed to leave, ever, especially one who's their favourite piggy bank.

    Every day with them exposes how correct the brexit vote was.
    A genuine question. Is resuming the civil war in Ireland and its associated costs (principally human costs, also the £ required for policing and security) an acceptable price to pay for creating a more competitive country that is free from the EU?
    The “civil war” was long ago taken over as a front for gangster mobs to make money via smuggling, drugs, prostitution (child and adult), extortion etc.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190

    Mr. Sandpit, thanks :)

    King Cole, doesn't everybody think everybody else is wrong? If a man thought he was wrong, he'd change his mind.

    In my case,no. I think the Irish have interests, like we do, and aren't shy in pushing them. Although I think there's also irrational anger at the damage Brexit is doing to their country. We can hardly lecture them for being irrational. Ireland is something we will have to deal with, as we haven't up to now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.

    How much would Labour give the EU of taxpayers money to stay in a single market when that isn't on offer?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144
    Not looking good for us in Oz. We have an Australian at the office, he's going to be insufferable.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    FF43 said:

    Mr. Sandpit, thanks :)

    King Cole, doesn't everybody think everybody else is wrong? If a man thought he was wrong, he'd change his mind.

    In my case,no. I think the Irish have interests, like we do, and aren't shy in pushing them. Although I think there's also irrational anger at the damage Brexit is doing to their country. We can hardly lecture them for being irrational. Ireland is something we will have to deal with, as we haven't up to now.
    Perhaps if Ireland had been more sympathetic to Cameron’s negotiations then the referendum would have turned out differently.

    Dublin is paying the price for its serious miscalculation.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    edited November 26
    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    When the deal is done there is going to be some wailing from the Continuity Remainers
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 476
    A perceptive article on one of the key issues regarding Brexit. Something will have to give to square the circle. The only realistic options are a soft Brexit or a hard border along the Irish Sea. A hard border across Ulster would be very problematic; County Donegal in particular requires easy access to the city of Derry.

    If the Mayfly, supported by the 3 Brexiteer clowns and others, insists on a hard Brexit outside the CU/FM, a plebiscite in the 6 counties on Irish re-unification might clarify the preference of the population most affected between a hard border across Ulster and one along the Irish Sea.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), the EuroArmy could police it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    edited November 26
    MaxPB said:

    Not looking good for us in Oz. We have an Australian at the office, he's going to be insufferable.

    The aussies I know are either insufferable or 'not that into cricket actually' around the Ashes... :)
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    I think the broader question is whether the creation of a hard border (and the associated risk of conflict in Ireland) is an acceptable price to pay for the ability to have regulatory divergence. I don't think that achieving an ambiguous fudge is a viable policy position.

    I am not an expert on this subject, but it strikes me that we could achieve the goal of controlling immigration and sovereignty over most of our laws whilst remaining in the customs union.

    As I pointed out before, the freedom to make our own trade deals is a hobby horse of a minority of Brexiteers and unlikely to be a priority for many of the people who voted for Brexit.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    daodao said:

    A perceptive article on one of the key issues regarding Brexit. Something will have to give to square the circle. The only realistic options are a soft Brexit or a hard border along the Irish Sea. A hard border across Ulster would be very problematic; County Donegal in particular requires easy access to the city of Derry.

    If the Mayfly, supported by the 3 Brexiteer clowns and others, insists on a hard Brexit outside the CU/FM, a plebiscite in the 6 counties on Irish re-unification might clarify the preference of the population most affected between a hard border across Ulster and one along the Irish Sea.

    A border poll would see the Unionists win. As it would in Scotland.

    I don't understand why those who love the EU can't understand that people have more affiliation to the UK than their pet project.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Mortimer said:

    I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.

    How much would Labour give the EU of taxpayers money to stay in a single market when that isn't on offer?
    I’ve got a post on Facebook... from Campaign to Remain, so could be a bit over the top..... to the effect that the final ‘divorce bill’ will not actually be revealed to the public. It’s source is, apparently, The Times.

    I really, really wish we could get on with ‘real stuff’, about social care, improving productivity and so on.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    It only needs to be a hard border for goods, because of the CTA.

    A retrograde move of course, but not that difficult.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Mortimer said:

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    When the deal is done there is going to be some wailing from the Continuity Remainers
    As they have at every stage.

    ROI is just the latest actor in the game to be sitting with its mouth open waiting for gold to be stuffed in it.

    If it was an Olympic sport they’d be serious contenders.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Anna Soubry on Brexit: ‘History will condemn those who haven’t tried to stop all this nonsense’

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/26/anna-soubry-interview-brexit-history-will-condemn-this-period

    "if the prime minister doesn’t do what she’s perfectly capable of doing, which is to try and unite people as opposed to fuel further division, our party is going to be destroyed.”
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    So let me get this right. We can't start to talk about a free trade deal until we agree on no hard border, but we can't agree on no hard border until we have a free trade deal.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Mortimer said:

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    When the deal is done there is going to be some wailing from the Continuity Remainers
    Of course. Because we’ll all be worse off! I’m really not bothered about the colour of my passport!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    It only needs to be a hard border for goods, because of the CTA.

    A retrograde move of course, but not that difficult.
    As I said - if the ROI are serious about a hard border then they need to get spades in the ground now....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    IanB2 said:

    Anna Soubry on Brexit: ‘History will condemn those who haven’t tried to stop all this nonsense’

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/26/anna-soubry-interview-brexit-history-will-condemn-this-period

    "if the prime minister doesn’t do what she’s perfectly capable of doing, which is to try and unite people as opposed to fuel further division, our party is going to be destroyed.”

    Exactly. The whole issue is about keeping the Conservative Party together. National interest is well down the list of priorities.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Not looking good for us in Oz. We have an Australian at the office, he's going to be insufferable.

    The aussies I know are either insufferable or 'not that into cricket actually' around the Ashes... :)
    I speak to lots of Indians and Pakistanis, it’s amazing how many of them ‘don’t care for cricket’ except when their team has just won something!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291

    IanB2 said:

    Anna Soubry on Brexit: ‘History will condemn those who haven’t tried to stop all this nonsense’

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/26/anna-soubry-interview-brexit-history-will-condemn-this-period

    "if the prime minister doesn’t do what she’s perfectly capable of doing, which is to try and unite people as opposed to fuel further division, our party is going to be destroyed.”

    Exactly. The whole issue is about keeping the Conservative Party together. National interest is well down the list of priorities.
    With Ken and Hezza on the way to the buffalo pastures in the sky, Soubry really is last of the Mohicans...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    Mortimer said:

    I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.

    How much would Labour give the EU of taxpayers money to stay in a single market when that isn't on offer?
    I’ve got a post on Facebook... from Campaign to Remain, so could be a bit over the top..... to the effect that the final ‘divorce bill’ will not actually be revealed to the public. It’s source is, apparently, The Times.

    I really, really wish we could get on with ‘real stuff’, about social care, improving productivity and so on.
    Because only middle class liberal concerns matter, eh?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351

    IanB2 said:

    Anna Soubry on Brexit: ‘History will condemn those who haven’t tried to stop all this nonsense’

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/26/anna-soubry-interview-brexit-history-will-condemn-this-period

    "if the prime minister doesn’t do what she’s perfectly capable of doing, which is to try and unite people as opposed to fuel further division, our party is going to be destroyed.”

    Exactly. The whole issue is about keeping the Conservative Party together. National interest is well down the list of priorities.
    Not exactly succeeding on either.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 476
    Mortimer said:

    daodao said:

    A perceptive article on one of the key issues regarding Brexit. Something will have to give to square the circle. The only realistic options are a soft Brexit or a hard border along the Irish Sea. A hard border across Ulster would be very problematic; County Donegal in particular requires easy access to the city of Derry.

    If the Mayfly, supported by the 3 Brexiteer clowns and others, insists on a hard Brexit outside the CU/FM, a plebiscite in the 6 counties on Irish re-unification might clarify the preference of the population most affected between a hard border across Ulster and one along the Irish Sea.

    A border poll would see the Unionists win. As it would in Scotland.

    I don't understand why those who love the EU can't understand that people have more affiliation to the UK than their pet project.
    I wouldn't be so sure about the result of such a plebiscite, if one of the options would result in a hard border across Ulster. In my opinion, based on recent election results and the EUref percentage vote shares in the 6 counties, the outcome would be too close to call.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    It only needs to be a hard border for goods, because of the CTA.

    A retrograde move of course, but not that difficult.
    As I said - if the ROI are serious about a hard border then they need to get spades in the ground now....
    The basic point being that there can't be a hard border - for either side. The EU, ROI et al understand what trade barriers will do to the UK. They cannot believe that the party of free trade is about to blow our brains out in this way. So they will hold off until it's clear that the UK has decided that it wants to add the massive cost and delay of a hard border, at which point work will have to begin.

    And not just in Ireland. France and the Netherlands have got some significant work to do under hard Brexit as well. In France it's simple - they will simply go on strike the minute we leave. The others will take longer but it will happen. The Berlin wall didn't appear overnight but it did appear as an effective if nor impervious barrier from day 1.

    Meanwhile the usual dumb comments from our no surrender to the EU posters. We know the EU rules on borders with 3rd parties - our media frustration with them not being slammed shut hard enough on refugees adding to the leave propaganda. So why we seem to think the EU imposing EU rules we knew about and want enforcing elsewhere is somehow them being mean to Blighty beggars belief
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    It only needs to be a hard border for goods, because of the CTA.

    A retrograde move of course, but not that difficult.
    As I said - if the ROI are serious about a hard border then they need to get spades in the ground now....

    All that’s needed in the first instance are people standing at the border checking vehicles and documentation. It’ll be chaos, of course.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    So let me get this right. We can't start to talk about a free trade deal until we agree on no hard border, but we can't agree on no hard border until we have a free trade deal.

    And any border on the Irish side is the fault of the British.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    JohnLoony said:

    It would be unacceptable for there to be any sort of border within the UK.
    It would be undesirable for there to be a hard land border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.
    It would be unacceptable for the whole, or part, of the UK to remain in the Single Market or the Customs Union.
    Therefore the most obvious and straightforward solution would be for the whole of Ireland to rejoin the UK.

    Which is the most unacceptable thing of all from the Irish POV.

    Hard border or CU including all the UK are the most likely outcomes. Ireland is pushing for the second by threatening no deal if there's no regulatory conformance of the North with the EU, but they really want a UK Soft Brexit. The Conservative government is not going to agree that just to help Northern Ireland, which voted Remain in the referendum. There are good reasons for the UK to stay in the Customs Union. Which makes me think the Irish would be better to play a longer game. Be firm on the transition, where the UK stays in the Single Market and Customs Union and vague on the end arrangement. By then the Irish may not need use their veto on the deal.

    That depends on the extent to which the end state needs to be signed off during the negotiations?
    The British claim they can have Hard Brexit, which they call Soft Brexit, without a hard border. So draft the Withdrawal Agreement something like this, We will agree a comprehensive FTA, subject to the UK demonstrating every item crossing an unmanned border will be EU compliant. So far the British have said the hardness of the border is the EU's problem. In this case the EU would be saying, no it's the UK's problem. You have the transition to work out a solution to the problem and if you don't, there's no deal. Would the UK refuse a transition in those terms? Highly unlikely!
  • saddosaddo Posts: 357
    nielh said:

    saddo said:

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Completely agree. History teaches everyone that the EU is a cynical nasty bunch who have unbending belief in their righteousness.
    Nobody is allowed to leave, ever, especially one who's their favourite piggy bank.

    Every day with them exposes how correct the brexit vote was.
    A genuine question. Is resuming the civil war in Ireland and its associated costs (principally human costs, also the £ required for policing and security) an acceptable price to pay for creating a more competitive country that is free from the EU?
    Why will that happen? It's only a trade border and it's the EU that have the problem. If good flow unencumbered across the man made border, it's no problem to the UK
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 1,835
    edited November 26
    The problem, of course, is that this Government is focused on what it would need to do to keep Jacob Rees-Mogg happy, rather than what's in the country's best interests. Leaving the EU but staying in the CU is the blindingly obvious solution to the whole mess.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,105
    Unless Team Brexit performs a humiliating climbdown, the only "solution" to the Irish problem would seem to be a hard border.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    The problem, of course, is that this Government is focused on what it would need to do to keep Jacob Rees-Mogg happy, rather than what's in the country's best interests. Leaving the EU, but staying in the CU is the blindingly obvious solution to the whole mess.

    Almost certainly the worst of all possible options.

  • saddo said:

    nielh said:

    saddo said:

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Completely agree. History teaches everyone that the EU is a cynical nasty bunch who have unbending belief in their righteousness.
    Nobody is allowed to leave, ever, especially one who's their favourite piggy bank.

    Every day with them exposes how correct the brexit vote was.
    A genuine question. Is resuming the civil war in Ireland and its associated costs (principally human costs, also the £ required for policing and security) an acceptable price to pay for creating a more competitive country that is free from the EU?
    Why will that happen? It's only a trade border and it's the EU that have the problem. If good flow unencumbered across the man made border, it's no problem to the UK

    It is, because the only scenario under which that might happen is a No Deal Brexit. And under that scenario the UK is going to be facing economic catastrophe.

    What happens on the Irish border will also apply to English ports through which people and goods move to the EU27.

  • Sandpit said:

    So let me get this right. We can't start to talk about a free trade deal until we agree on no hard border, but we can't agree on no hard border until we have a free trade deal.

    And any border on the Irish side is the fault of the British.

    Of course - we are the ones changing the status quo.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.

    How much would Labour give the EU of taxpayers money to stay in a single market when that isn't on offer?
    I’ve got a post on Facebook... from Campaign to Remain, so could be a bit over the top..... to the effect that the final ‘divorce bill’ will not actually be revealed to the public. It’s source is, apparently, The Times.

    I really, really wish we could get on with ‘real stuff’, about social care, improving productivity and so on.
    Because only middle class liberal concerns matter, eh?
    I suppose the government could offer free Union Jack tattoos
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Sandpit said:

    So let me get this right. We can't start to talk about a free trade deal until we agree on no hard border, but we can't agree on no hard border until we have a free trade deal.

    And any border on the Irish side is the fault of the British.
    ROI backing for Germany during WWII was the fault of the British too no doubt...


  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.

    How much would Labour give the EU of taxpayers money to stay in a single market when that isn't on offer?
    I’ve got a post on Facebook... from Campaign to Remain, so could be a bit over the top..... to the effect that the final ‘divorce bill’ will not actually be revealed to the public. It’s source is, apparently, The Times.

    I really, really wish we could get on with ‘real stuff’, about social care, improving productivity and so on.
    Because only middle class liberal concerns matter, eh?
    I suppose the government could offer free Union Jack tattoos
    If people didn't sneer at the drawbacks of immigration then they might not have lost to a bus...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    edited November 26
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.

    How much would Labour give the EU of taxpayers money to stay in a single market when that isn't on offer?
    I’ve got a post on Facebook... from Campaign to Remain, so could be a bit over the top..... to the effect that the final ‘divorce bill’ will not actually be revealed to the public. It’s source is, apparently, The Times.

    I really, really wish we could get on with ‘real stuff’, about social care, improving productivity and so on.
    Because only middle class liberal concerns matter, eh?
    If you think social care is only a middle class concern.............. come into this galaxy and see what’s happening.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485

    I've talked about the perils of the intra-irish border since the idea of WTO started giving Tory ministers a massive erection. ROI will veto further negotiations if the UK head towards requiring a hard border. Arlene's DUKIP will veto any kind of special status for NornIron (we're special already so we are).And the UK economy will crash if talks stop forcing the hardest of no deal Brexits.

    Someone needs to blink. No-one can afford to politically. So the talks next month will be brief, UK industry will pull it's war book off the shelves, and we'll see how opinion changes as industry starts to dismember the economy during 2018.

    Our wazzock government and their supporters will insist it's everyone else's fault. But when Honda announce that the current Civic will be the last car built at Swindon, or BMW announce big investment over at the Nedcar factory to take work off Cowley they will spell out clearly and factually why TWO makes industry in this country economically uncompetitive. '52/48 for "leave the European Union" = 100% for leaving absolutely everything else that's not the EU won't survive. And as the Tories will have wedded themselves to it they won't survive either.

    Hard Brexit is politically an Extinction Level Event for anyone who touches it. UKIP have already gone. The Tories are next.

    Who said nothing good comes out of Rochdale. Excellent post!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    It only needs to be a hard border for goods, because of the CTA.

    A retrograde move of course, but not that difficult.
    As I said - if the ROI are serious about a hard border then they need to get spades in the ground now....

    All that’s needed in the first instance are people standing at the border checking vehicles and documentation. It’ll be chaos, of course.

    Lol - I’d imagine Irish farmers and producers would put up with that for approximately a day.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Quite an eye opener as to how protectionist the EU is - hard borders, fences, security guards, etc etc -all to keep cheaper goods out.
  • At a series of meetings in 17–26 June 1940, during and after the Battle of France, British envoy Malcolm MacDonald brought a proposal to end the partition of Ireland and offered a solemn undertaking to accept "the principle of a United Ireland" if Ireland would abandon its neutrality and immediately join the war against Germany and Italy.

    See Britain is prepared to sacrifice Northern Ireland for the greater good, we can do it again.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    Good snippet in the Irish press from Matt's review: Conservative minister warning Irish politicians that if they push it the pressure on Mrs May to walk away will be huge.

    The EU have forgotten that we don't have a history of succumbing to pressure from a foreign power.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    It only needs to be a hard border for goods, because of the CTA.

    A retrograde move of course, but not that difficult.
    As I said - if the ROI are serious about a hard border then they need to get spades in the ground now....

    All that’s needed in the first instance are people standing at the border checking vehicles and documentation. It’ll be chaos, of course.

    Lol - I’d imagine Irish farmers and producers would put up with that for approximately a day.

    The law’s the law. It will be equally shite for those in the North.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    At a series of meetings in 17–26 June 1940, during and after the Battle of France, British envoy Malcolm MacDonald brought a proposal to end the partition of Ireland and offered a solemn undertaking to accept "the principle of a United Ireland" if Ireland would abandon its neutrality and immediately join the war against Germany and Italy.

    See Britain is prepared to sacrifice Northern Ireland for the greater good, we can do it again.

    I can't remember the details, but wasn't Churchill going to renege on that?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,149
    The declared ambition of the British government is a hard, de jure, border between Ulster and the Republic, without any physical, de facto, border control infrastructure, except possibly license plate recognition cameras.

    Similar to driving into the London congestion charge zone.

    In turn that implies a blind eye to various forms of trafficking, but again the U.K. appears to be OK with that.

    Gibraltar somewhat harder to resolve.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    On paper, the Irish issue looks unsolvable. "Solutions" like carving out NI as a chunk from the UK, or EIRE joining the UK, or NI joining EIRE, as politically impossible as they are silly.

    Both the EU and the UK are going to have to agree a constructive ambiguity regarding the NI land border, and agree to turn a blind eye to several things, if it is going to work.

    That will require maturity, foresight and intelligence on both sides.

    If the ROI (funded by the EU) are going to build a hard border - they’d better get on with it. Would cost a fortune for the Garda to police this new “Berlin’s Wall”.

    Any plans in place for this ? Tells you all you need to know...
    It only needs to be a hard border for goods, because of the CTA.

    A retrograde move of course, but not that difficult.
    As I said - if the ROI are serious about a hard border then they need to get spades in the ground now....

    All that’s needed in the first instance are people standing at the border checking vehicles and documentation. It’ll be chaos, of course.

    Lol - I’d imagine Irish farmers and producers would put up with that for approximately a day.
    The obvious answer is a compromise - a soft border 6am to 6pm, a hard border 6pm to 6am.....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    rcs1000 said:

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Never attribute to malice, that which is adequately explained by incompetence.
    There is a solution - broadly what was proposed by the UK although I am sure that there are technical improvements that can be made.

    If Ireland want to be disruptive so be it.
  • The question that Tory cheerleaders for lunacy refuse to answer - why have you turned your backs on free trade? Why are you trying to impose massive costs on British business? Why are you tell I g industry that it doesn't know what it's talking about when talking about the impacts of hard Brexit on their own industry?

    As I said, political ELE. Once the Tories stop representing business and free trade, all they are left with is representing the interests of big capital - the bankers and hedge fund managers who own the party via their donations. Once the pretence of backing work has gone how will the party win the votes of working people which it needs for government? Hard to say "don't vote Labour they will bring about economic ruin" when you yourselves have just brought about economic ruin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited November 26
    Mortimer said:

    At a series of meetings in 17–26 June 1940, during and after the Battle of France, British envoy Malcolm MacDonald brought a proposal to end the partition of Ireland and offered a solemn undertaking to accept "the principle of a United Ireland" if Ireland would abandon its neutrality and immediately join the war against Germany and Italy.

    See Britain is prepared to sacrifice Northern Ireland for the greater good, we can do it again.

    I can't remember the details, but wasn't Churchill going to renege on that?
    He put in a very fatal poison poll, the governments of Eire and Norn Ireland would have to agree on the practicalities of unification.

    You can see why the Irish are wary of perfidious Albion, and want things codified into treaty now.
  • Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Come on everyone. This Irish question is just the EU playing a game - they have told the Irish to bring this up. It is all part of their scheme to try to lock the UK into following EU regulations after Brexit, which will obviously be the first issue in trade talks.

    The EU have said that we either accept Norway or CETA - fine, we will take CETA. But the problem is that the CETA FTA (like all FTAs) is not built on following someone else's regulations, it is built on mutual acceptance of each others regulations.

    The EU are terrified (quite rightly) that the UK will diverge and become more competitive and want to find some excuse to insist on the UK using the EU's regulatory regime after Brexit.

    All this Irish stuff is their way of getting there. They want to bully the UK into accepting EU regulations so that we can't really leave the CU and SM even though we won't get the benefits.

    The Irish need to be told very bluntly to get stuffed. There is going to be a border between NI and ROI whatever they do. They need to focus on how to make that border as unobtrusive as possible, but it is going to exist. Norway and Sweden manage it, the Irish need to start proper discussions rather than just acting as the EU Commissions little bitch.

    Never attribute to malice, that which is adequately explained by incompetence.
    There is a solution - broadly what was proposed by the UK although I am sure that there are technical improvements that can be made.

    If Ireland want to be disruptive so be it.

    The UK has not made a specific proposal. It has made several broad-brush suggestions that include no detail.

  • daodaodaodao Posts: 476

    The declared ambition of the British government is a hard, de jure, border between Ulster and the Republic, without any physical, de facto, border control infrastructure, except possibly license plate recognition cameras.

    Similar to driving into the London congestion charge zone.

    In turn that implies a blind eye to various forms of trafficking, but again the U.K. appears to be OK with that.

    Gibraltar somewhat harder to resolve.

    Correction, not between Ulster and the Republic, but across Ulster.

    Counties Cavan/Monaghan/Donegal are in Eire.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    On the English cricket team - If you don't take two of your best players which would have benefited in the Aussie conditions then you are asking for trouble.

    Mark wood - the man with genuine pace and stokes - one of the best players in world cricket.

    So who did the selectors pick for woods replacement - Jake ball - laughable.

    And one more thing,someone have a word in Joe roots ear,50's won't cut it in Australia to win test matches when you are the best batter in the English cricket team,we need hundreds joe.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,294

    Mortimer said:

    At a series of meetings in 17–26 June 1940, during and after the Battle of France, British envoy Malcolm MacDonald brought a proposal to end the partition of Ireland and offered a solemn undertaking to accept "the principle of a United Ireland" if Ireland would abandon its neutrality and immediately join the war against Germany and Italy.

    See Britain is prepared to sacrifice Northern Ireland for the greater good, we can do it again.

    I can't remember the details, but wasn't Churchill going to renege on that?
    He put in a very fatal poison poll, the government of Eire and Norn Ireland would have to agree on the practicalities of unification.

    You can see why the Irish are wary of perfidious Albion, and want things codified into treaty now.
    United Ireland is the only way forward.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 1,149

    The question that Tory cheerleaders for lunacy refuse to answer - why have you turned your backs on free trade? Why are you trying to impose massive costs on British business? Why are you tell I g industry that it doesn't know what it's talking about when talking about the impacts of hard Brexit on their own industry?

    As I said, political ELE. Once the Tories stop representing business and free trade, all they are left with is representing the interests of big capital - the bankers and hedge fund managers who own the party via their donations. Once the pretence of backing work has gone how will the party win the votes of working people which it needs for government? Hard to say "don't vote Labour they will bring about economic ruin" when you yourselves have just brought about economic ruin.

    The most stupid argument of all is that Brexit opens up new opportunities for business.

    You're right, Brexit is a massive tax on business.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801

    fox327 said:

    Supposing the Irish Republic will not agree to a UK-EU trade deal unless the UK remains in the customs union, we can just leave without a trade deal if we want to.

    The UK - Ireland border will become a hard border like the Greek-Turkish border, the India-Pakistan border, the USA-Mexico border etc. Perhaps a second referendum might need to be held in the UK on the question of the UK-Irish border?

    The Greco-Turkish border is not that hard, as there is customs union, and USA/Mexico is within NAFTA.

    There is a significant difference between a planned WTO Brexit (with hard Irish border) and a hostile WTO Brexit.

    I think Cyclefree is right that a retreat into a De Valera insularity is a risk, but even that did have some soft aspects such as the Irish Free State, CTA, UK naval bases and effective currency union. Even now Irish politics is still split FG vs FF, originating in pro and anti treaty forces.
    My understanding was that Turkey isn't a member of *the* Custons Union but that it has *a* customs union with *the* Customs Union

    Essentially an elegant fudge. You need origin of goods paperwork but that's it. Turkey is free to sign FTAs with other markets

    Strikes me a sensible approach either for NI or for all of the UK
This discussion has been closed.