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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 100/1 tip for next PM is setting his sights on Number 10

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 26 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 100/1 tip for next PM is setting his sights on Number 10

My 100/1 tip for next Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt is setting his sights on Number 10. https://t.co/IgCwfMN8dO pic.twitter.com/w3gH3zJXVe

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,591
    edited November 26
    First
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 26
    Friendly with Uncle Rupert to boot.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,330
    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives seem to be in somebody`s pocket?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Fourth like Boris!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 26
    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,330

    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
    Not really. Today`s leading stories are about

    Gove
    Johnson
    Hunt

    all of whom are top Tories.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 449
    I think the key phrase in this article is "despite the opprobrium heaped on him". He is unpopular, and Hunt does not handle that unpopularity well. He has a sweaty palmness about him, and given the Tories weakness on the NHS they would be crazy to make him their leader. They should go for one of the younger up and coming people rising up the ranks, someone like Gavin Williamson or the unknown MP yet to be promoted
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
    Not really. Today`s leading stories are about

    Gove
    Johnson
    Hunt

    all of whom are top Tories.
    You mean they are Tories, and at the top of their party. No other way could they be described as ‘top’.
  • PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
    Not really. Today`s leading stories are about

    Gove
    Johnson
    Hunt

    all of whom are top Tories.
    You mean they are Tories, and at the top of their party. No other way could they be described as ‘top’.
    If three Secretaries of State, including one holder of a Great Office of State aren't top politicians then what are?

    If you mean you don't like them then that's neither here nor there. Even when I thought he was a ridiculous bananaman I still would have acknowledged David Miliband as one of the countries then top politicians.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: that was not a thrilling race. And the only reliability failure lost me a bet that was otherwise on to win.

    One or two interesting things to cover in the post-race ramble, though.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,591
    Newspaper rules are that any Tory caught in scandal and/or dissenting from party line is automatically “Top” aren’t they?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
    Not really. Today`s leading stories are about

    Gove
    Johnson
    Hunt

    all of whom are top Tories.
    You mean they are Tories, and at the top of their party. No other way could they be described as ‘top’.
    If three Secretaries of State, including one holder of a Great Office of State aren't top politicians then what are?

    If you mean you don't like them then that's neither here nor there. Even when I thought he was a ridiculous bananaman I still would have acknowledged David Miliband as one of the countries then top politicians.
    Fair enough. Wales lost yesteday and I spent too much of the morning with the Brexiteers getting up my nose. Even a wine-sampling and buying trip to Majestic hasn’t quite restored my mood.
    Son and family are definitely coming for Christmas, too, which is a mixed blessing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 26
    alex. said:

    Newspaper rules are that any Tory caught in scandal and/or dissenting from party line is automatically “Top” aren’t they?

    Or grandee...If they have served more than a couple of terms.
  • Iran 'has more evidence' that could add 16 years to jailed British mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s prison term – ‘including a BBC pay stub and an email showing she once trained Iranian journalists'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5118213/Iran-airs-allegations-against-detained-British-woman.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    Iran 'has more evidence' that could add 16 years to jailed British mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s prison term – ‘including a BBC pay stub and an email showing she once trained Iranian journalists'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5118213/Iran-airs-allegations-against-detained-British-woman.html

    Boris’ size 10’s didn’t help a bit, did they.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
    Not really. Today`s leading stories are about

    Gove
    Johnson
    Hunt

    all of whom are top Tories.
    Because many journalists and commentators don't understand their motives and principles and therefore assume they are corrupt
  • Iran 'has more evidence' that could add 16 years to jailed British mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s prison term – ‘including a BBC pay stub and an email showing she once trained Iranian journalists'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5118213/Iran-airs-allegations-against-detained-British-woman.html

    Where did they get the alleged BBC pay slip?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,591
    edited November 26

    Iran 'has more evidence' that could add 16 years to jailed British mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s prison term – ‘including a BBC pay stub and an email showing she once trained Iranian journalists'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5118213/Iran-airs-allegations-against-detained-British-woman.html

    Wasn’t that already known about and always a complicating factor? ie. regardless of what she was doing in Iran when arrested (Boris’s crime) there was lots of stuff from her past that Iran could hold against her?
  • Charles said:

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
    Not really. Today`s leading stories are about

    Gove
    Johnson
    Hunt

    all of whom are top Tories.
    Because many journalists and commentators don't understand their motives and principles and therefore assume they are corrupt
    They don't understand what 'self-serving' means? I think they do!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 26
    Charles said:

    PClipp said:

    PClipp said:

    Is there any particular reason why all the top Conservatives politicians of the major political parties seem to be in somebody`s pocket?

    Fixed for you.
    Not really. Today`s leading stories are about

    Gove
    Johnson
    Hunt

    all of whom are top Tories.
    Because many journalists and commentators don't understand their motives and principles and therefore assume they are corrupt
    I have to say it was rather reassuring that we have had the Panama and paradise papers and none of our senior politicians have been found to up to their neck in shit. Compare to India where I believe 70 MPs are in the doo doo, Iceland's president was found etc etc etc .

    The worst the guardian could dig up was the likes of JRM having shares in a company that everybody knew he worked for and done nothing remotely wrong. When you have to spin the queen having £3k in bright house as the major scandal that is quite a good sign.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 26
    alex. said:

    Iran 'has more evidence' that could add 16 years to jailed British mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s prison term – ‘including a BBC pay stub and an email showing she once trained Iranian journalists'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5118213/Iran-airs-allegations-against-detained-British-woman.html

    Wasn’t that already known about and always a complicating factor? ie. regardless of what she was doing in Iran when arrested (Boris’s crime) there was lots of stuff from her past that Iran could hold against her?
    The whole story is a lot more complicated than woman goes on holibobs and gets arrested.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Urquhart, not unlike the Budget coverage, though, the Paradise Papers non-story did give the impression of journalists writing a headline and then trying to fit the facts into it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 26

    Mr. Urquhart, not unlike the Budget coverage, though, the Paradise Papers non-story did give the impression of journalists writing a headline and then trying to fit the facts into it.

    I jokingly said at the time It is like they just searched the data for anybody mentioned in whos who. I watched a vice special the other day on it and i kid you not this is literally what they did! They just sat theur putting in trump, trump jnr, etx etc etc and you could hear the disappointment.

    There appeared to be far less proper investigation of what dodgy shit non-famous people are up to.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: that was not a thrilling race. And the only reliability failure lost me a bet that was otherwise on to win.

    One or two interesting things to cover in the post-race ramble, though.

    And no safety car....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. B2, quite. No crashing. Not a great advert for the sport. Particularly stupid as they could've made the circuit into anything, it wasn't crammed into a city or pre-existing venue, but built from scratch. And they thought that flat and uninspiring was the way to go.
  • I should also add that at least at the guardian it was only one or two people who saw the data, decided who to investigate and then after a year, they passed the packaged up bits to other people to write the pieces. So those writing up where simply padding out selected parts of the data.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Urquhart, to be fair, it may be Bilton's best work since he discovered Greek forest fires are dangerous, or that the Mediterranean is made of water.
  • Agreed. I had a small punt @75 on Betfair two weeks ago. Though my reasoning was May falling early. If she completes Brexit in 2019 I think the Tories will want to skip a generation and the NHS will have had to dodge another two winter bullets.

    As an aside I was intrigued today to see another step in the institutionalisation of Food Banks. Hellmans/Colemans/Knorr brands adopting two special logos on promotional packs in the run up to Christmas. " Fight UK Hunger " and the Trussell Trust logo with 5p per pack donated.

    While Food Banks aren't as new as some on the Left say they are and I'd rather big food companies spent their Ad budgets on social ends than celebrity endorsements or giving away free Lego etc it seems like a cultural marker. " Fight UK Hunger " is a stark phrase. Turning the Trussell Trust logo into a product endorsement so one Britons food is bought by another Briton buying one brand of Food rather than another is fairly extraordinary in a so called welfare state.

    I suspect some of this is just Food Banks are a conveyor belt that's very difficult to get off once they've been set up and become part of the " System ". The fairly shameless manner in which UC has been rolled out is a case in point.

    Counterintuitively I stopped donating to our local one after Brexit. A community that seen a collosal expansion in it's Food Bank over 10 years which then votes heavily for that kind of economic shock is in late decadence in my view. And the predictable and predicted devaluation and inflation is biting hard locally coupled with UC and the benefit freeze.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366
    edited November 26

    Iran 'has more evidence' that could add 16 years to jailed British mother Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s prison term – ‘including a BBC pay stub and an email showing she once trained Iranian journalists'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5118213/Iran-airs-allegations-against-detained-British-woman.html

    Boris’ size 10’s didn’t help a bit, did they.
    Still, he's a top politician, which is nice.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,759
    edited November 26

    Agreed. I had a small punt @75 on Betfair two weeks ago. Though my reasoning was May falling early. If she completes Brexit in 2019 I think the Tories will want to skip a generation and the NHS will have had to dodge another two winter bullets.

    As an aside I was intrigued today to see another step in the institutionalisation of Food Banks. Hellmans/Colemans/Knorr brands adopting two special logos on promotional packs in the run up to Christmas. " Fight UK Hunger " and the Trussell Trust logo with 5p per pack donated.

    While Food Banks aren't as new as some on the Left say they are and I'd rather big food companies spent their Ad budgets on social ends than celebrity endorsements or giving away free Lego etc it seems like a cultural marker. " Fight UK Hunger " is a stark phrase. Turning the Trussell Trust logo into a product endorsement so one Britons food is bought by another Briton buying one brand of Food rather than another is fairly extraordinary in a so called welfare state.

    I suspect some of this is just Food Banks are a conveyor belt that's very difficult to get off once they've been set up and become part of the " System ". The fairly shameless manner in which UC has been rolled out is a case in point.

    Counterintuitively I stopped donating to our local one after Brexit. A community that seen a collosal expansion in it's Food Bank over 10 years which then votes heavily for that kind of economic shock is in late decadence in my view. And the predictable and predicted devaluation and inflation is biting hard locally coupled with UC and the benefit freeze.

    I would be interested to understand how this 'branding' trend operates in Germany, where food pantries have many more users than here and have been running far longer.

    Germany has 1.5 million regular users of foodbanks, whilst here it is about 1.2m parcels in total in the whole of 2016.

    http://www.dw.com/en/germanys-food-pantries-struggle-to-meet-rising-demand/a-37148492

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    I would rather have to face Hunt at the next GE than BoJo.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Why did Varadkar stop the work Kenny had started?

    .....he also said that the border should be moved to the Irish Sea. What this implied was that no customs checks should be done at the land border, which would remain largely as invisible as it does today. Instead customs checks would occur at seaports and airports.

    This idea apparently came as a surprise to officials in Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs, and does not seem to have been based on much thought or analysis. Such ideas are incoherent and unhelpful.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Because it was WIP when domestic Irish politics resulted in them downing tools?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,370

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Why did Varadkar stop the work Kenny had started?

    .....he also said that the border should be moved to the Irish Sea. What this implied was that no customs checks should be done at the land border, which would remain largely as invisible as it does today. Instead customs checks would occur at seaports and airports.

    This idea apparently came as a surprise to officials in Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs, and does not seem to have been based on much thought or analysis. Such ideas are incoherent and unhelpful.
    If that's true, and the EU use it as a reason to halt progress to stage 2, we should walk away. Varadkar is the one who'll have to handle the fall out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited November 26
    I can't see Hunt, as a former Remainer, ending up as the Leaver candidate in the final 2 picked by MPs to face Rudd, as the candidate of former Remain backing MPs, in the ballot papers to be sent to the membership.

    If neither Boris nor Gove ends up as the candidate of Leave backing MPs then I would have thought David Davis, who actually did back Leave at the time of the EU referendum, would be more likely to end up as the Leave candidate in the Cabinet to take on Rudd than Hunt would be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Miss Vance, cheers for that info. Varadkar's clearly a cantankerous gnome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited November 26
    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8
  • FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Theycare foing so in cooperation with the Irish until the Government changed on Dublin.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    Afternoon all,

    I was in on Hunt at 110. Thanks TSE.

    If this comes to pass (and the fact that it is now in the papers seriously running probably means it wont now :-) ) - then I am in for a very very decent payday.
  • FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Theycare foing so in cooperation with the Irish until the Government changed on Dublin.
    "They were doing...."

    I fecking hate typing on a phone.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366
    edited November 26

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Praiseworthy that an economist favoured by Brexiteers & ex SPAD to Trimble has been able to set aside his own baggage and produce a clear eyed & unbiased view of the situation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Well that was an exciting race!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,359
    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Theycare foing so in cooperation with the Irish until the Government changed on Dublin.
    "They were doing...."

    I fecking hate typing on a phone.
    The Irish government gave them a fair chance and all they came up with was ludicrous fantasies about zeppelins and blockchain, so it was in no-one’s interests to keep up the fiction that a technical solution could be found.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    edited November 26

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Why did Varadkar stop the work Kenny had started?

    .....he also said that the border should be moved to the Irish Sea. What this implied was that no customs checks should be done at the land border, which would remain largely as invisible as it does today. Instead customs checks would occur at seaports and airports.

    This idea apparently came as a surprise to officials in Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs, and does not seem to have been based on much thought or analysis. Such ideas are incoherent and unhelpful.
    The Irish have been consistent on no hard border. Enda Kenny's line was a transition period "as long as it takes to find a solution", ie NOT the British proposal. As I said FPT, I personally suspect Kenny's approach is likely to be more effective, but it is a difference only of tactics. There's probably an element of good cop, bad cop.

    Edit as I also said FPT, it's in the Irish interest for the British to own the problem of how to create the soft border they say they want.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Sandpit, it was simply riveting. Was it sponsored by Horlicks?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. 43, a difference in tactics is often the difference between success and defeat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    ex SPAD to Trimble
    For all of four years:

    Dr Graham Gudgin is Policy Exchange’s Chief Economic Adviser. He is currently Honorary Research Associate at the Centre for Business Research (CBR) in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the University of Ulster and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, and was senior Economic Adviser at Oxford Economics from 2007 to 2015. He was Director of the ESRC-funded Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998 when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. Prior to this he was economics fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge and a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group under Wynne Godley.

    How unlike a Nat to play the man, not the ball......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited November 26
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366
    edited November 26

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    ex SPAD to Trimble
    For all of four years:

    Dr Graham Gudgin is Policy Exchange’s Chief Economic Adviser. He is currently Honorary Research Associate at the Centre for Business Research (CBR) in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the University of Ulster and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, and was senior Economic Adviser at Oxford Economics from 2007 to 2015. He was Director of the ESRC-funded Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998 when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. Prior to this he was economics fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge and a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group under Wynne Godley.

    How unlike a Nat to play the man, not the ball......
    How like a Brexityoon to bridle when their 'facts' are exposed to the sunlight.

    I prefer having an idea where analysis stops and opinion starts.
    There are certainly a lot of opinions about the doc's analyses.

    'Brexit report promoted by right-wing press condemned by economic experts'

    https://tinyurl.com/zyjua9g

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190

    Mr. 43, a difference in tactics is often the difference between success and defeat.

    That's true, MD. Maybe the Irish felt they had to force the issue to get the British to take them seriously, but will engage if and when the UK does so. Maybe the Irish will back down. Maybe they are letting anger get in the way of a cool head. We'll see.
  • @MattW Are those Apples and Oranges ? I've no idea how comprehensive those German figures are. One of the ironies of the weaponising of the Trussell Trust figures is they under play the problem. TT are just one provider of one sort of Food Aid. The Fare Share network has had almost no coverage for instance despite being massive. Our parish has recently launched a Fareshare distribution on top of the local food bank due to heavy local demand. But attendees will never feature in the weaponised figures.

    Our TT food bank offers the general Summer Holiday top up for anyone with Free School Meals eligibility upto 3 kids per family. It reports being in crisis for donations yet has bolted on a broad additional eligibility criterion. Nor is it clear how these school holiday schemes are reflected in the TT figures.

    Still for me it seems a weird cultural moment to see an hypothecated " Fight UK Hunger " logo tying Food Aid to consumption of certain Big Brands. I genuinely don't know what to think.


  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,591
    edited November 26
    FF43 said:

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Why did Varadkar stop the work Kenny had started?

    .....he also said that the border should be moved to the Irish Sea. What this implied was that no customs checks should be done at the land border, which would remain largely as invisible as it does today. Instead customs checks would occur at seaports and airports.

    This idea apparently came as a surprise to officials in Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs, and does not seem to have been based on much thought or analysis. Such ideas are incoherent and unhelpful.
    The Irish have been consistent on no hard border. Enda Kenny's line was a transition period "as long as it takes to find a solution", ie NOT the British proposal. As I said FPT, I personally suspect Kenny's approach is likely to be more effective, but it is a difference only of tactics. There's probably an element of good cop, bad cop.

    Edit as I also said FPT, it's in the Irish interest for the British to own the problem of how to create the soft border they say they want.
    Not if the default position in March 2019 is a hard border.

    Also, surely the real priority (from an economic perspective) for the Republic is as soft as possible a Border with the UK as a whole. It won't make much economic difference to the UK where the border is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    ex SPAD to Trimble
    For all of four years:

    Dr Graham Gudgin is Policy Exchange’s Chief Economic Adviser. He is currently Honorary Research Associate at the Centre for Business Research (CBR) in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the University of Ulster and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, and was senior Economic Adviser at Oxford Economics from 2007 to 2015. He was Director of the ESRC-funded Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998 when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. Prior to this he was economics fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge and a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group under Wynne Godley.

    How unlike a Nat to play the man, not the ball......
    https://tinyurl.com/zyjua9g

    Now you're a fan of Treasury forecasts?

    I don't recall such uncritical acceptance during SindyRef1.....

    Quite a Damascene conversion!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    edited November 26



    Counterintuitively I stopped donating to our local one after Brexit. A community that seen a collosal expansion in it's Food Bank over 10 years which then votes heavily for that kind of economic shock is in late decadence in my view. And the predictable and predicted devaluation and inflation is biting hard locally coupled with UC and the benefit freeze.

    So you've actually stopped donating because you don't approve of the political views of the people who need help? Political views that might (and probably do) make logical sense to those who voted, political views that are by definition the mainstream views of the British voters?

    Wow. Just wow.

    Edit to add: This is why charities shouldn't indulge in the political, because they end up as the tools of the virtue signallers: the producer interest of the third sector.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525

    Dawn Butler, who says Theresa May “might be female but she is no friend of women”, and that the Tories have done nothing for women.

    If you want to look at what is wrong with our political system, dawn butler is a great example. Thick as shit, expense fiddler, and proven liar. Hits the trifecta, yet she is in a prominent position.

    A shithead is calling someone else thick. How many Tory expenses fiddler have you criticised?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.
  • Hunt has played a good long game. He has converted to Brexit late in the day, but has not been tainted by touching Brexit directly like others have.

    If Brexit turns into a shambles Hunt can still say he voted remain but changed his mind to commit to the will of the people, absolving himself of any blame.

    Hunt has put himself in a position where he can have his cake and eat it. Had Boris chosen this strategy he would now be unassailable. Hunt has played a blinder and 100/1 could be value bet of the millennium!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    surbiton said:

    Dawn Butler, who says Theresa May “might be female but she is no friend of women”, and that the Tories have done nothing for women.

    If you want to look at what is wrong with our political system, dawn butler is a great example. Thick as shit, expense fiddler, and proven liar. Hits the trifecta, yet she is in a prominent position.

    A shithead is calling someone else thick. How many Tory expenses fiddler have you criticised?
    Mr FU is pretty balanced in his highlighting of political foolishness.

    More than can be said of others that spring to mind....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    ex SPAD to Trimble
    For all of four years:

    Dr Graham Gudgin is Policy Exchange’s Chief Economic Adviser. He is currently Honorary Research Associate at the Centre for Business Research (CBR) in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge. He is also visiting Professor at the University of Ulster and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, and was senior Economic Adviser at Oxford Economics from 2007 to 2015. He was Director of the ESRC-funded Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre from 1985 to 1998 when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the NI Assembly until 2002. Prior to this he was economics fellow at Selwyn College, Cambridge and a member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group under Wynne Godley.

    How unlike a Nat to play the man, not the ball......
    https://tinyurl.com/zyjua9g

    Now you're a fan of Treasury forecasts?

    I don't recall such uncritical acceptance during SindyRef1.....

    Quite a Damascene conversion!
    You're a critic of Treasury forecasts?

    I don't recall such scepticism during SindyRef1.....

    Quite a Damascene conversion!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    alex. said:

    FF43 said:

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Why did Varadkar stop the work Kenny had started?

    .....he also said that the border should be moved to the Irish Sea. What this implied was that no customs checks should be done at the land border, which would remain largely as invisible as it does today. Instead customs checks would occur at seaports and airports.

    This idea apparently came as a surprise to officials in Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs, and does not seem to have been based on much thought or analysis. Such ideas are incoherent and unhelpful.
    The Irish have been consistent on no hard border. Enda Kenny's line was a transition period "as long as it takes to find a solution", ie NOT the British proposal. As I said FPT, I personally suspect Kenny's approach is likely to be more effective, but it is a difference only of tactics. There's probably an element of good cop, bad cop.

    Edit as I also said FPT, it's in the Irish interest for the British to own the problem of how to create the soft border they say they want.
    Not if the default position in March 2019 is a hard border.
    The British have rejected Deal A and want Deal B. The Irish want Deal A and HATE Deal B. Neither side can force the other side to accept their preferred deal, but if there's no agreement, they will end up with No Deal that looks somewhat like Deal B, but worse to both parties.

    This is a classic prisoner's dilemma
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,409
    edited November 26
    On topic: The Irish threatening to delay " sufficient progress " is hillarious. I hope they do it for the entertainment value alone. Imagine a country letting national pride and a long term political project ( in this case unification ) get ahead of socioeconomic pragmatism on Brexit policy ! Where could the Irish have got that idea from ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    Rawnsley. Excellent article on productivity and the political nightmare it may cause in today's Observer.

    Love this line:

    "I’ve a hunch that “driverless cars” are not the miracle solution, and my scepticism is reinforced because so many politicians are trying to get into them..."
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,054
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.

    "What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period"


    No deal, no divorce payment.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    Hunt has played a good long game. He has converted to Brexit late in the day, but has not been tainted by touching Brexit directly like others have.

    If Brexit turns into a shambles Hunt can still say he voted remain but changed his mind to commit to the will of the people, absolving himself of any blame.

    Hunt has put himself in a position where he can have his cake and eat it. Had Boris chosen this strategy he would now be unassailable. Hunt has played a blinder and 100/1 could be value bet of the millennium!

    Hunt will have to commit to leaving the single market as well as the EU and ending free movement as most Tories want, though I think a third successive Remainer leading a majority Leaver party may well be a step too far for the majority of Tories.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    Boris and Hunt now joint 2nd fav on BF for next leader. JRM still favourite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.
    Yes but the next general election does not have to be until 2022 ie after both Brexit has been completed and a transition period ended and when a FTA may well be near completion.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 1,636
    Mortimer said:



    Counterintuitively I stopped donating to our local one after Brexit. A community that seen a collosal expansion in it's Food Bank over 10 years which then votes heavily for that kind of economic shock is in late decadence in my view. And the predictable and predicted devaluation and inflation is biting hard locally coupled with UC and the benefit freeze.

    So you've actually stopped donating because you don't approve of the political views of the people who need help? Political views that might (and probably do) make logical sense to those who voted, political views that are by definition the mainstream views of the British voters?

    Wow. Just wow.

    Edit to add: This is why charities shouldn't indulge in the political, because they end up as the tools of the virtue signallers: the producer interest of the third sector.
    You mean like right wingers constantly trying to undermine the RSPCA and National Trust because they oppose hunting along with 80% of voters?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525

    FPT:

    This Irish border question has been getting worse with the new boy:

    A new cold wind has been blowing from Dublin this week on the vexed issue of the Irish land border. The previous Irish position of preparing for a technological solution to minimise border disruption has been overturned. Enda Kenny, Taoiseach until June, had implicitly accepted that a border would be necessary, and had begun preparations, along with the British, to minimise disruption. Quiet contacts had been taking place between officials north and south of the border. As the new Fine Gael government team led by Leo Varadkar has found its feet all of that has begun to change.

    First the Irish Foreign Minister, Simon Coveney, said that no border is acceptable. Another government spokesman said that no technological solutions could make a border acceptable. Then in Brussels last week, Leo Varadkar said that the border was Britain’s not Ireland’s problem and that Irish work on technological solutions would cease.


    https://policyexchange.org.uk/irish-border-and-brexit/

    Why have the British not been able to come up with a satisfactory technical solution?
    Why did Varadkar stop the work Kenny had started?

    .....he also said that the border should be moved to the Irish Sea. What this implied was that no customs checks should be done at the land border, which would remain largely as invisible as it does today. Instead customs checks would occur at seaports and airports.

    This idea apparently came as a surprise to officials in Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs, and does not seem to have been based on much thought or analysis. Such ideas are incoherent and unhelpful.
    The UK created the problem, the UK should solve it. The UK wanted to leave the EU. They will get it and it is called WTO. All Varadkar is saying that if the UK does not agree to a customs less border, then they will veto any deal.

    In other words, Ireland will help UK achieve what it set out to.

    Simple solution: NI stays in the Customs Union. After all, they voted to stay IN.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.
    Yes but the next general election does not have to be until 2022 ie after both Brexit has been completed and a transition period ended and when a FTA may well be near completion.
    You have not understood this yet. There can be a "transition" only if the FTA or WTO is known on 29th March 2019.

    It can be a transition only if we know what we are transiting to.

    What you are saying is not transition but an extension of the Art.50 2 year period which is explicitly mentioned in Art.50.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.

    "What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period"


    No deal, no divorce payment.

    You will I fear be proved utterly wrong, if by 'deal' you mean the actual chapter and verse on trade.
  • @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.
  • HYUFD said:

    Hunt has played a good long game. He has converted to Brexit late in the day, but has not been tainted by touching Brexit directly like others have.

    If Brexit turns into a shambles Hunt can still say he voted remain but changed his mind to commit to the will of the people, absolving himself of any blame.

    Hunt has put himself in a position where he can have his cake and eat it. Had Boris chosen this strategy he would now be unassailable. Hunt has played a blinder and 100/1 could be value bet of the millennium!

    Hunt will have to commit to leaving the single market as well as the EU and ending free movement as most Tories want, though I think a third successive Remainer leading a majority Leaver party may well be a step too far for the majority of Tories.
    Yes he can commit to all those red line issues because 'it was the will of the people'. If it goes wrong he can still say he was only supporting what the voters wanted because he is a democrat, and by the way he has it on record that he supported remain. Genius.

    I am sure blue-rinse Tories respect damascene conversions to their point of view too!

    He is easy on the ear and eye and doesn't come across as an absolute charlatan -although he may well be exactly that!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    That shows you in a pretty unattractive light.
  • @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    Typical Remainer. If people don't agree with you they and there opinions are worthless. You should be thoroughly ashamed of yourself.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    I would not donate anything to racist Brexiters. I would rather donate to the third world where poor people are really poor!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    OllyT said:

    Mortimer said:



    Counterintuitively I stopped donating to our local one after Brexit. A community that seen a collosal expansion in it's Food Bank over 10 years which then votes heavily for that kind of economic shock is in late decadence in my view. And the predictable and predicted devaluation and inflation is biting hard locally coupled with UC and the benefit freeze.

    So you've actually stopped donating because you don't approve of the political views of the people who need help? Political views that might (and probably do) make logical sense to those who voted, political views that are by definition the mainstream views of the British voters?

    Wow. Just wow.

    Edit to add: This is why charities shouldn't indulge in the political, because they end up as the tools of the virtue signallers: the producer interest of the third sector.
    You mean like right wingers constantly trying to undermine the RSPCA and National Trust because they oppose hunting along with 80% of voters?
    The RSPCA has been undermining itself by its aggressive pursuit of legacies, and its vindictiveness towards pet owners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited November 26
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.
    Yes but the next general election does not have to be until 2022 ie after both Brexit has been completed and a transition period ended and when a FTA may well be near completion.
    You have not understood this yet. There can be a "transition" only if the FTA or WTO is known on 29th March 2019.

    It can be a transition only if we know what we are transiting to.

    What you are saying is not transition but an extension of the Art.50 2 year period which is explicitly mentioned in Art.50.
    No, provided we agree to ECJ jurisdiction and continued free movement during that 2 year period as May has agreed to do and Barnier has said is required for the transition to work that transition will indeed take us to 2021 by which time the FTA talks may be near completion.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,370
    surbiton said:

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    I would not donate anything to racist Brexiters. I would rather donate to the third world where poor people are really poor!
    Yes, because most people in the Third World have cuddly liberal views like you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.
    Yes but the next general election does not have to be until 2022 ie after both Brexit has been completed and a transition period ended and when a FTA may well be near completion.
    You have not understood this yet. There can be a "transition" only if the FTA or WTO is known on 29th March 2019.

    It can be a transition only if we know what we are transiting to.

    What you are saying is not transition but an extension of the Art.50 2 year period which is explicitly mentioned in Art.50.
    No, provided we agree to ECJ jurisdiction and continued free movement during that 2 year period as May has agreed to do and Barnier has said is required for the transition to work that transition will indeed take us to 2021 by which time the FTA talks may be near completion.
    Indeed. But it follows, as I said below, that we will have committed to a divorce settlement to secure the transition period, yet the detail of trade arrangements after the transition ends cannot possibly be known in detail until the EU has taken any outline proposals through its lengthy ratification process.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt has played a good long game. He has converted to Brexit late in the day, but has not been tainted by touching Brexit directly like others have.

    If Brexit turns into a shambles Hunt can still say he voted remain but changed his mind to commit to the will of the people, absolving himself of any blame.

    Hunt has put himself in a position where he can have his cake and eat it. Had Boris chosen this strategy he would now be unassailable. Hunt has played a blinder and 100/1 could be value bet of the millennium!

    Hunt will have to commit to leaving the single market as well as the EU and ending free movement as most Tories want, though I think a third successive Remainer leading a majority Leaver party may well be a step too far for the majority of Tories.
    Yes he can commit to all those red line issues because 'it was the will of the people'. If it goes wrong he can still say he was only supporting what the voters wanted because he is a democrat, and by the way he has it on record that he supported remain. Genius.

    I am sure blue-rinse Tories respect damascene conversions to their point of view too!

    He is easy on the ear and eye and doesn't come across as an absolute charlatan -although he may well be exactly that!
    Fine in theory for Hunt, problem is as the old saying goes 'try and please everyone, end up pleasing no one!'
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    surbiton said:

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    I would not donate anything to racist Brexiters. I would rather donate to the third world where poor people are really poor!
    How would you know how the intended beneficiaries of a donation will have voted? And why should someone's political outlook make any difference whether they are in need of charity?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.
    Yes but the next general election does not have to be until 2022 ie after both Brexit has been completed and a transition period ended and when a FTA may well be near completion.
    You have not understood this yet. There can be a "transition" only if the FTA or WTO is known on 29th March 2019.

    It can be a transition only if we know what we are transiting to.

    What you are saying is not transition but an extension of the Art.50 2 year period which is explicitly mentioned in Art.50.
    No, provided we agree to ECJ jurisdiction and continued free movement during that 2 year period as May has agreed to do and Barnier has said is required for the transition to work that transition will indeed take us to 2021 by which time the FTA talks may be near completion.
    Indeed. But it follows, as I said below, that we will have committed to a divorce settlement to secure the transition period, yet the detail of trade arrangements after the transition ends cannot possibly be known in detail until the EU has taken any outline proposals through its lengthy ratification process.
    Yes but if the FTA talks start in December by 2021 the ratification process for trade arrangements should be well under way.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,780
    In language the Brexiters can empathise with.
    Ireland is not run by "cucks" who will allow UK nats to impose a border or "PC SJWs" who want to give away border policy to their neighbours.
    However, Ireland does not seem to be taking a position of active enmity toward the UK. Ireland is instead looking for a very good DEAL, so they can MIGA.
    "Suck it up, losers".
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    Ireland (or perhaps their puppet masters in Brussels) seems to think they can get the UK government to U-turn over the Single Market and/or Customs Union. Brave, on Ireland's part. For a country that desperately wants to avoid a hard border, their threat of forcing a hard border doesn’t seem to be fully thought through.

    Why not say now that the objective of trade negotiations is tariff free trade, and we can all forget about hard borders between north and south and also between Dover and Calais.

    Oh, no, that would require Brussels to be sensible and aim for a win-win rather than a lose-lose just to frighten anyone else who might be thinking about leaving.

    The longer this all goes on, the stronger my Leaverness. The City of Culture spite makes me (almost) want to start burning EU flags in the street.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937
    surbiton said:

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    I would not donate anything to racist Brexiters. I would rather donate to the third world where poor people are really poor!
    Some strong contenders this afternoon for PB lovely bloke of the year award. I'd say you were definitely in with a shout. Personally, I'm looking for a charity which advocates the unanaesthetised vivisection of fluffy kittens with big googoo eyes, to send a message about what I think of David Davis.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    I would not donate anything to racist Brexiters. I would rather donate to the third world where poor people are really poor!
    How would you know how the intended beneficiaries of a donation will have voted? And why should someone's political outlook make any difference whether they are in need of charity?
    I cannot donate everyone. So I will ensure that there is no chance that some racist will benefit from my donation. If some of the recipients in the third world are racists, at least , I know they are poorer and more deserving.

    In any case, rich Brexiters should help the anti-foreigners.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,409
    edited November 26
    @Surbiton At least they've taken the bait re the RSPCA and started doing exactly what they accuse us of.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 756
    EPG said:

    In language the Brexiters can empathise with.
    Ireland is not run by "cucks" who will allow UK nats to impose a border or "PC SJWs" who want to give away border policy to their neighbours.
    However, Ireland does not seem to be taking a position of active enmity toward the UK. Ireland is instead looking for a very good DEAL, so they can MIGA.
    "Suck it up, losers".

    *Sigh* I came here to get away from that kind of language.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525

    Ireland (or perhaps their puppet masters in Brussels) seems to think they can get the UK government to U-turn over the Single Market and/or Customs Union. Brave, on Ireland's part. For a country that desperately wants to avoid a hard border, their threat of forcing a hard border doesn’t seem to be fully thought through.

    Why not say now that the objective of trade negotiations is tariff free trade, and we can all forget about hard borders between north and south and also between Dover and Calais.

    Oh, no, that would require Brussels to be sensible and aim for a win-win rather than a lose-lose just to frighten anyone else who might be thinking about leaving.

    The longer this all goes on, the stronger my Leaverness. The City of Culture spite makes me (almost) want to start burning EU flags in the street.

    Fine. Of course, with freedom of movement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    I would not donate anything to racist Brexiters. I would rather donate to the third world where poor people are really poor!
    How would you know how the intended beneficiaries of a donation will have voted? And why should someone's political outlook make any difference whether they are in need of charity?
    I cannot donate everyone. So I will ensure that there is no chance that some racist will benefit from my donation. If some of the recipients in the third world are racists, at least , I know they are poorer and more deserving.

    In any case, rich Brexiters should help the anti-foreigners.
    I think you're just seeking to excuse selfishness.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Come along, chaps. I know the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix was tedious, but that's no excuse for being uncouth.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    edited November 26

    @Mortimer I've made a modest change to my Will as well. I've switched a donation that was going to a poverty charity in the north of England to my old University. All charity is a value judgement as noone can give to everything. I'm afraid that's the effect Brexit has had on me. It's a new social reality and I'm adjusting accordingly. In case of Food Bank donations I stick my odd tin into the box for our independent Animal Shelter instead.

    Please sir ,can we have more.

    Lol

    That will put those leave B's in their place.

    Lol

    Bloody brilliant on here.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    surbiton said:

    Ireland (or perhaps their puppet masters in Brussels) seems to think they can get the UK government to U-turn over the Single Market and/or Customs Union. Brave, on Ireland's part. For a country that desperately wants to avoid a hard border, their threat of forcing a hard border doesn’t seem to be fully thought through.

    Why not say now that the objective of trade negotiations is tariff free trade, and we can all forget about hard borders between north and south and also between Dover and Calais.

    Oh, no, that would require Brussels to be sensible and aim for a win-win rather than a lose-lose just to frighten anyone else who might be thinking about leaving.

    The longer this all goes on, the stronger my Leaverness. The City of Culture spite makes me (almost) want to start burning EU flags in the street.

    Fine. Of course, with freedom of movement.
    Is that because you think wealthy white people from the EU should have priority access to the UK over poor black people from the third world?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366
    A Fox intervention. What could possibly go wrong?

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    May has done a deal with the EU to ensure the final divorce bill may never be known, even if she has promised enough to start FTA talks and a figure of more than £40 billion.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-divorce-bill-to-be-kept-secret-5qc35cfl8

    I see...

    The Prime Minister doesn't have the courage to tell the British people how much of OUR money she has had to pay to the EU in order to even begin talking about a trade deal.

    Political cowardice of the first order but then presumably she doesn't want a war within the Conservative Party.

    The figure will come out - eventually.
    Perhaps but if FTA talks begin in December now the payment has been promised they may be near completion by 2022, the last date for the next general election to be called, after we have both left the EU in 2019 and the transition period has ended in 2021.
    What few seem to have realised is that the agreed divorce payment will be set in stone at the end of the A50 period, yet any deal on trade will require extensive ratification, and all the EU will be able to deliver within the A50 period is a framework 'in principle' agreement, the details to be progressed during the transition period. The oft-heard 'nothing is agreed until all is agreed' mantra won't actually fly in practice.
    Yes but the next general election does not have to be until 2022 ie after both Brexit has been completed and a transition period ended and when a FTA may well be near completion.
    You have not understood this yet. There can be a "transition" only if the FTA or WTO is known on 29th March 2019.

    It can be a transition only if we know what we are transiting to.

    What you are saying is not transition but an extension of the Art.50 2 year period which is explicitly mentioned in Art.50.
    No, provided we agree to ECJ jurisdiction and continued free movement during that 2 year period as May has agreed to do and Barnier has said is required for the transition to work that transition will indeed take us to 2021 by which time the FTA talks may be near completion.
    That is only possible in a Art. 50 extension which is explicitly allowed for in Art.50.
This discussion has been closed.