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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Time’s person of the year

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 29 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Time’s person of the year

Time Magazine called to say that I was PROBABLY going to be named “Man (Person) of the Year,” like last year, but I would have to agree to an interview and a major photo shoot. I said probably is no good and took a pass. Thanks anyway!

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    edited November 29
    Here I stand and jump for joy. I was here before Kilroy

    Emmanuel Macron
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Second!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    That market looks like a collection for Paddy’s Christmas bonus fund.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,314
    Damn it.

    I wrote a comment and it disappeared.

    Mueller and Putin would be the only ones I would be even vaguely interested in. Or Harvey Weinstein, and he is mysteriously missing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,314
    (Why is it that early comments on threads are most at risk of disappearance?)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    edited November 29
    Harvey Weinstein?

    Or perhaps a generic "The sexual predator" ?

    A 170% overround & the book isn't fully made up, though. No bet for me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    rcs1000 said:

    (Why is it that early comments on threads are most at risk of disappearance?)

    It's weird, sometimes it cause 4-5 vanilla threads, but how does the system select which one shows up on the main site?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,314
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    (Why is it that early comments on threads are most at risk of disappearance?)

    It's weird, sometimes it cause 4-5 vanilla threads, but how does the system select which one shows up on the main site?
    My guess is that TSE or OGH alters the article slightly, and it causes Vanilla to recognise it as an entirely new one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    Wouldn't normally bey against Trump on such a thing but even without his comments 2 years a row would be lazy. Are 'the dreamers' an actual group or presumably referencing kids of illegals I'm amerca? So USA focused!

    Expected Macron to be even shorter, given he overturned the political establishment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    rcs1000 said:

    (Why is it that early comments on threads are most at risk of disappearance?)

    I’d you look at the Vanilla page you’ll see two threads for this post. The other one has your comment.
    TSE and I discussed this a couple of months ago, the multiple Vanilla threads issue seems to be a bug when posting a new header on the Wordpress mobile app. Two or three Vanilla threads create within a few seconds and all but the last one get orphaned from the Wordpress post.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited November 29
    On topic, it will probably be something generic like “Victims of sexual abuse”.

    No-one outside the USA has really heard of Colin Kaepernick.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,685
    Perhaps one of the Trumped-out people like Sean Spicer or Mike Flynn.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,610
    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,610
    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    Theresa May has less guts than Guy Fawkes after his execution. I see she is buggering off to Jordan today leaving Damian Green to take the flak at PMQs while he is under a cloud about allegations of potentially using extreme pornography.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    Theresa May has less guts than Guy Fawkes after his execution. I see she is buggering off to Jordan today leaving Damian Green to take the flak at PMQs while he is under a cloud about allegations of potentially using extreme pornography.
    I see the possibility, I put it no higher, of Brexit progress is already causing blind panic and bitterness against the PM. Very amusing to watch.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    How about the queen? Longest reigning British monarch, oldest head of state in the world and nice tv tie in on Netflix.....
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,610
    Who is going to pay this £100 billion?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    R4 review of the papers - Remainer Papers “UK bows to EU” while Brexit Papers “May triumph” - if not its Wall to Wall Harry & Meghan.....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,988
    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823
  • rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    I agree with TSE that Colin Kaepernick is the best bet. This is an American publication with international pretentions. It has a US bias and he has raised important issues on race which remains a hot topic in the US. He has also done it in a dignified way. And, not least, it would piss Trump off. Which is as good a way of getting publicity as any.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,610

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    That will be our share of the refugees who pitched up in Germany. :lol:
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,000

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    Most of the population are too inumerate to comprehend how large £50bn is in the context of typical government spending. I’d be fascinated to see how many people could divide £50bn by £350m a week...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So there will be a trade off.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    Yeah that’s an almighty screwup. The new OS10.13 looks the same from the outside but had a ton of work done inside.

    Thankfully the default user settings don’t allow access to this exploit so 99% of users are unaffected. It also requires physical access to the machine and can be mitigated by enabling the root account and setting a password for it. Yet another company who released software with not enough QA done on it though, not good at all.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    80% of the population aren’t paying attention. Remainers will enjoy the FT and Guardian, Leavers the Mail and Telegraph.....everyone else is getting non stop Harry & Meghan...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So there will be a trade off.
    Yes, but until then, possibly even then, most people will probably assume it is too much, and plenty of people from separate ends will be happy to say so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    And no one from government will be saying anything until the meeting on 15th - by which time we’ll all be in Christmas mode with politics switched off for a few weeks.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,988
    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    Yeah that’s an almighty screwup. The new OS10.13 looks the same from the outside but had a ton of work done inside.

    Thankfully the default user settings don’t allow access to this exploit so 99% of users are unaffected. It also requires physical access to the machine and can be mitigated by enabling the root account and setting a password for it. Yet another company who released software with not enough QA done on it though, not good at all.
    Why aren't 99% of users affected? From reading the summaries (and some are admittedly confused), it seems you're only unaffected if your root password has been altered - and many people won't mess with root.

    There was a similar (although simpler) bug in Unix in the 1970s, where accounts with passwords could be entered just by pressing ...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    If it’s regarded as “too much” do you think it will increase, or reduce, support for the EU?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    I see the president of Bolivia will get to run for a fourth term despite initially saying he'd respect a referendum against him doing so. It's important people be allowed to vote for you. Unless they vote against your plans, then get the courts involved I guess (apparently it didn't count due to illegal smears during the campaign)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,988

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    If it’s regarded as “too much” do you think it will increase, or reduce, support for the EU?
    Honestly Not sure. A certain amount will have bridled at the EU demands but if we've 'given in' then it's possible will think it's not worth leaving if it will cost that much. But I'd lean toward reducing support longer term as what we get for it emerges -plenty are saying it won't be much, and I think more people will think we've been very reasonable with this amount and feel they are unreasonable if we don't get a good deal, fair as that view may or may not be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    Sigh, flight to Xian has been delayed by 4 hours. I've really been looking forward to it to.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    And no one from government will be saying anything until the meeting on 15th - by which time we’ll all be in Christmas mode with politics switched off for a few weeks.
    Without checking on posts around Dec 25th in previous years I think wer can safely assume that some contributors will be making comments 24th-26th.
    After all, according to HMRC some people pay their income tax on Christmas Day.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    edited November 29
    This is what happens when the hard right take power;

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/28/i-cant-eat-or-sleep-the-grandmother-threatened-with-deportation-after-50-years-in-britain

    It's being done in your name, people.

    Wake up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    If it’s regarded as “too much” do you think it will increase, or reduce, support for the EU?
    Honestly Not sure. A certain amount will have bridled at the EU demands but if we've 'given in' then it's possible will think it's not worth leaving if it will cost that much. But I'd lean toward reducing support longer term as what we get for it emerges -plenty are saying it won't be much, and I think more people will think we've been very reasonable with this amount and feel they are unreasonable if we don't get a good deal, fair as that view may or may not be.
    I suspect, fairly or unfairly, the EU will be viewed as “the villain of the piece” by the majority, with only dedicated Remainers taking their side. The polls already show that to be the expectation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    Every time ‘Microsofts Technical Department” ring me (or rang me before I found out how to block them) when I said I used Apple or Linux they stopped their spiel and rang off. One agent even told me I was very wise.
    Had one of those ‘we can stop nuisance calls for a fee’ merchants yesterday. 'We understand you’re getting a lot of nuisance calls’ said the caller. Yes, I replied; I’ve got one now. And he hung up very rudely! Anyway, his number’s blocked now!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    If it’s regarded as “too much” do you think it will increase, or reduce, support for the EU?
    Honestly Not sure. A certain amount will have bridled at the EU demands but if we've 'given in' then it's possible will think it's not worth leaving if it will cost that much. But I'd lean toward reducing support longer term as what we get for it emerges -plenty are saying it won't be much, and I think more people will think we've been very reasonable with this amount and feel they are unreasonable if we don't get a good deal, fair as that view may or may not be.
    I suspect, fairly or unfairly, the EU will be viewed as “the villain of the piece” by the majority, with only dedicated Remainers taking their side. The polls already show that to be the expectation.
    I expect that too, but I do not entirely rule out some increase in support on the basis 'this is harder and more costly than I thought, for not enough reward, so even though they ate buggers, better to stay after all'
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    If it’s regarded as “too much” do you think it will increase, or reduce, support for the EU?
    Honestly Not sure. A certain amount will have bridled at the EU demands but if we've 'given in' then it's possible will think it's not worth leaving if it will cost that much. But I'd lean toward reducing support longer term as what we get for it emerges -plenty are saying it won't be much, and I think more people will think we've been very reasonable with this amount and feel they are unreasonable if we don't get a good deal, fair as that view may or may not be.
    I suspect, fairly or unfairly, the EU will be viewed as “the villain of the piece” by the majority, with only dedicated Remainers taking their side. The polls already show that to be the expectation.
    I expect that too, but I do not entirely rule out some increase in support on the basis 'this is harder and more costly than I thought, for not enough reward, so even though they ate buggers, better to stay after all'
    Blimey I thought baby-eating Tories were bad enopugh but eating buggers......
  • I don't have a problem with the amount, though it would be silly to pay the EU transition funds for our leaving and then walk away completely. Perhaps May is planning on asking the EU of they will use some of the cash to pay for the customs facilities / staff / training that our hard Brexit will require...?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited November 29

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    Yeah that’s an almighty screwup. The new OS10.13 looks the same from the outside but had a ton of work done inside.

    Thankfully the default user settings don’t allow access to this exploit so 99% of users are unaffected. It also requires physical access to the machine and can be mitigated by enabling the root account and setting a password for it. Yet another company who released software with not enough QA done on it though, not good at all.
    Why aren't 99% of users affected? From reading the summaries (and some are admittedly confused), it seems you're only unaffected if your root password has been altered - and many people won't mess with root.

    There was a similar (although simpler) bug in Unix in the 1970s, where accounts with passwords could be entered just by pressing ...
    The password dialog box that enables the root account to be entered is disabled by default. Disk encryption has also been enabled by default for two or three years now on new devices. A bad actor would need to physically find an older computer running the new software or one that’s open and unlocked in order to exploit this. It’s still an almighty screwup though, but it’s not quite as dangerous as is being made out by some parts of the media.

    There will probably be a fix within 48 hours.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,988
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    Yeah that’s an almighty screwup. The new OS10.13 looks the same from the outside but had a ton of work done inside.

    Thankfully the default user settings don’t allow access to this exploit so 99% of users are unaffected. It also requires physical access to the machine and can be mitigated by enabling the root account and setting a password for it. Yet another company who released software with not enough QA done on it though, not good at all.
    Why aren't 99% of users affected? From reading the summaries (and some are admittedly confused), it seems you're only unaffected if your root password has been altered - and many people won't mess with root.

    There was a similar (although simpler) bug in Unix in the 1970s, where accounts with passwords could be entered just by pressing ...
    The password dialog box that enables the root account to be entered is disabled by default. Disk encryption has also been enabled by default for two or three years now on new devices. A bad actor would need to physically find an older computer running the new software or one that’s open and unlocked in order to exploit this. It’s still an almighty screwup though, but it’s not quite as dangerous as is being made out by some parts of the media.

    There will probably be a fix within 48 hours.
    Thanks. Still funny and worrying though.
  • DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So there will be a trade off.
    No, the payment will become binding in the article 50 treaty, but the delivery of the FTA will not be binding (it is not possible for the EU to agree an FTA in this treaty).

    If the UK had an agreement that it would be linked, they would be busy leaking it. The entire basis of the EUs negotiation has been to separate the issues so that we are fully committed to the Brexit bill regardless of the outcome.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    More like you are paying an Apple premium for something that probably is better than the competition. The number of professionals using Macbooks is very high, based on my observations of London coffee shops, and they can't all be wrong. Lenovo (formerly IBM) Thinkpads are probably next in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    And no one from government will be saying anything until the meeting on 15th - by which time we’ll all be in Christmas mode with politics switched off for a few weeks.
    Without checking on posts around Dec 25th in previous years I think wer can safely assume that some contributors will be making comments 24th-26th.
    After all, according to HMRC some people pay their income tax on Christmas Day.
    There’s usually a couple of hundred posts on here on 25th. Most just saying Merry Christmas to their online friends or trying to solve @StJohn’s cryptic crossword.

    With the exception of a small number of political obsessives, most will take a fortnight off from life to enjoy time with family and friends.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited November 29
    Pong said:

    This is what happens when the hard right take power;

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/28/i-cant-eat-or-sleep-the-grandmother-threatened-with-deportation-after-50-years-in-britain

    It's being done in your name, people.

    Wake up.

    David Blunkett and Labour were Hard Right too then?

    The home secretary, David Blunkett, acted unlawfully in deporting an Afghan refugee family to Germany after they sought sanctuary in a British mosque, a high court judge ruled today.

    Farid Ahmadi, 33, his wife Fariba, 25, and their two young children, aged five and three, were last month flown back to Germany, where they had first claimed asylum. They travelled on a specially chartered military jet at a cost to the taxpayer of an estimated £30,000.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk/2002/sep/11/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    Chris Grayling refusing to revolt on R4....
  • Damian Green is doing PMQs today.

    Should be fun.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    edited November 29
    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291

    Who is going to pay this £100 billion?

    Same suckers that used to send £10+Bn pa to he EU every year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,314

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So there will be a trade off.
    No, the payment will become binding in the article 50 treaty, but the delivery of the FTA will not be binding (it is not possible for the EU to agree an FTA in this treaty).

    If the UK had an agreement that it would be linked, they would be busy leaking it. The entire basis of the EUs negotiation has been to separate the issues so that we are fully committed to the Brexit bill regardless of the outcome.
    "the payment will become binding in the article 50 treaty"

    That doesn't even make sense.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,040
    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    You don’t seem to like anyone who owns a home?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Pong said:

    This is what happens when the hard right take power;

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/28/i-cant-eat-or-sleep-the-grandmother-threatened-with-deportation-after-50-years-in-britain

    It's being done in your name, people.

    Wake up.

    Dare I say it, but every single case like this that the Guardian highlights and thousands of people retweet with hyperbolic language attached, turns out to have key facts missing that materially affect the way the case has been handled.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 17,988

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    More like you are paying an Apple premium for something that probably is better than the competition. The number of professionals using Macbooks is very high, based on my observations of London coffee shops, and they can't all be wrong. Lenovo (formerly IBM) Thinkpads are probably next in.
    Nah. They're paying a premium because they're 'professionals' who want to appear as if they have money to burn. Apple is not about technology: it's about image.

    I tend to give people with iPhones a pass, but when I see anyone with an Apple Watch I immediately know they're style over substance.

    (runs for cover).
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,000
    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    You don’t seem to like anyone who owns a home?
    If the 1% tax replaced council tax it wouldn’t change much for most and would act as a useful check on house price inflation
  • Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    Charging me 25% of the current value of my home would cost me more than I origanally paid for it 25 years ago. I would probably be forced to sell it, as would many others. This would cause a massive crash in the value of houses (not least because of the fear that a “one off” charge would be anything but) and thus an immediate severe recession.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    edited November 29
    I think most people will breathe a sigh of relief; a hurdle to a least bad Brexit has been overcome.

    Can’t really see why anyone would object. Unless you are a moron. And a Brexiter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    Charging me 25% of the current value of my home would cost me more than I origanally paid for it 25 years ago. I would probably be forced to sell it, as would many others. This would cause a massive crash in the value of houses (not least because of the fear that a “one off” charge would be anything but) and thus an immediate severe recession.
    Yes. Any “Property Tax”based on house price would have to refer to the last transaction price for that property, unless whoever is proposing it wishes to see every granny in London evicted from their own home.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,040

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    Charging me 25% of the current value of my home would cost me more than I origanally paid for it 25 years ago. I would probably be forced to sell it, as would many others. This would cause a massive crash in the value of houses (not least because of the fear that a “one off” charge would be anything but) and thus an immediate severe recession.
    Exactly. Plus the emigration.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    kle4 said:

    I see the president of Bolivia will get to run for a fourth term despite initially saying he'd respect a referendum against him doing so. It's important people be allowed to vote for you. Unless they vote against your plans, then get the courts involved I guess (apparently it didn't count due to illegal smears during the campaign)

    Is that Bolivia or Remainerdom?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006
    edited November 29
    Time Person of the Year -- Elon Musk is not quoted so far as I can see, yet this year has seen his SpaceX rockets become successful and he is about to turn on the world's biggest battery in Australia.

    Edit: 16/1 at Ladbrokes (as is TSE's tip).
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    TOPPING said:

    I think most people will breathe a sigh of relief; a hurdle to a least bad Brexit has been overcome.

    Can’t really see why anyone would object. Unless you are a moron. And a Brexiter.

    Judging by here and twitter there are more than a few moronic 'remoaners' stalking the ether at the moment.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,040
    TOPPING said:

    I think most people will breathe a sigh of relief; a hurdle to a least bad Brexit has been overcome.

    Can’t really see why anyone would object. Unless you are a moron. And a Brexiter.

    Agreed. Devil’s in the detail etc but it sounds the sort of figure that’s sellable both ways round and we could all move in. The pressure will now mount a bit from Berlin and Paris on the Irish one suspects to fall in line a tad and accept a fudge till we get to trade.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    Person of theYear - Judge Roy Moore.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    edited November 29
    Xi Jinping is the one to go for. Those are good odds. Time likes strong leaders that are instantly recognised by its international readership, particularly in Asia. They also want a strong narrative. In this case ascendant China. Finally Xi hasn't won it yet. He ticks all the boxes.

    I would fancy Elon Musk as a possibility, but he isn't on the list. Electric cars, space rockets and destructive technologies are great narratives.

    Kim Jongun is also possible but the odds aren't great.

    Edit DecrepitJohn has the same idea as me on Elon Musk and found odds of 16/1. Decent.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    Charging me 25% of the current value of my home would cost me more than I origanally paid for it 25 years ago. I would probably be forced to sell it, as would many others. This would cause a massive crash in the value of houses (not least because of the fear that a “one off” charge would be anything but) and thus an immediate severe recession.
    Exactly. Plus the emigration.
    two birds with one stone then? houseprices and population both sorted!
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,040

    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    Charging me 25% of the current value of my home would cost me more than I origanally paid for it 25 years ago. I would probably be forced to sell it, as would many others. This would cause a massive crash in the value of houses (not least because of the fear that a “one off” charge would be anything but) and thus an immediate severe recession.
    Exactly. Plus the emigration.
    two birds with one stone then? houseprices and population both sorted!
    Yeah we could all leave except Jezza and he’ll be left with 25 million homes, all worth zero, he’s taxing to 100% wondering why the numbers don’t add up.
  • rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:



    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.

    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So there will be a trade off.
    No, the payment will become binding in the article 50 treaty, but the delivery of the FTA will not be binding (it is not possible for the EU to agree an FTA in this treaty).

    If the UK had an agreement that it would be linked, they would be busy leaking it. The entire basis of the EUs negotiation has been to separate the issues so that we are fully committed to the Brexit bill regardless of the outcome.
    "the payment will become binding in the article 50 treaty"

    That doesn't even make sense.
    Let me explain. The UK and the EU will enter into an article 50 treaty. This will be an international treaty and thus binding on the UK and enforceable in UK Courts.

    The EU cannot, by law, include an FTA in the article 50 treaty. It will have to be agreed and ratified afterwards. They can include a 'heads of agreement' but it cannot bind the EU because the EU do not have the legal power to enter into an FTA in this way. Barnier has been clear about this.

    The reason for all of this charade is that the EU have demanded that payment of the Brexit Bill has to be unconditional. The UK will agree to pay it in the article 50 treaty and that is the end of the story. The EU will not, on the other hand, be bound to deliver the FTA. If the FTA was not ratified, the UK would have no grounds for refusing to pay the Brexit bill UNLESS it said so in the treaty. It will not - this link has been refused by the EU and the UK appears to have capitulated.

    Once the treaty is signed, the EU can spend the next five years backtracking and picking holes in the FTA and there is nothing that the UK can do about it.

    Can we walk away before the article 50 treaty is signed? In theory yes, but in practice the EU plan will be to play for time and then at the cliff edge force us to accept a crap non-binding FTA heads of agreement because the alternative is hard Brexit with no deal and no time to prepare.

    It was ESSENTIAL that the UK made the EU compromise on the linkage as it was the only leverage that we had. We have been sold out. We would be much better walking away now than taking this deal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Elon Musk is a good call from @DecrepitJohnL and @FF43. Someone loved by the media types who will decide, and for doing positive things in what’s been a year of negativity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. 43, I'm not betting on this market but agree on Xi/Kim.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    Pong said:

    This is what happens when the hard right take power;

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/28/i-cant-eat-or-sleep-the-grandmother-threatened-with-deportation-after-50-years-in-britain

    It's being done in your name, people.

    Wake up.

    You never get a complete set of facts from a newspaper

    But it appears that she says she arrive before the immigration rules but can't provide (or hasn't to date been able to provide) documentary evidence that she arrived in 68, just that she was in a children's home in the 70s.

    Bureaucracies being what they are they need to be consistent (otherwise it's unfair to people who don't have access to the Guardian). So if she provides the evidence and she can stay. The doesn't and she is - by definition - deemed an illegal immigrant.

    I'm sure that the Hone Iffice could have been more sympathetic as to how they applied the rules, but their job is to apply the rules.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    More like you are paying an Apple premium for something that probably is better than the competition. The number of professionals using Macbooks is very high, based on my observations of London coffee shops, and they can't all be wrong. Lenovo (formerly IBM) Thinkpads are probably next in.
    In a corporate environment when you either get an Apple Mac or a cheap as chips Windows laptop with a rubbish screen and made of plastic.

    No brainer, Apple every time.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    edited November 29

    Damian Green is doing PMQs today.

    Should be fun.

    Q1: Mr Speaker, the salacious rumours scurry around Whitehall. Cabinets, laptops and servers are searched and examined. Emails are scoured over for the revealing files.

    But perhaps the Honourable Gentlement knows the answer.

    Where are those Brexit Impact Assessments?

    Q2: After the PM's humiliating acceptance of a 50bn Brexit bill, has she fled to Jordan? Isn't she a picture of embarassment?

    I ask the Deputy Prime Minister since he is the expert on embarassing pictures...

    Others will do better I am sure
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    More like you are paying an Apple premium for something that probably is better than the competition.
    After a quarter of a century fighting Microsoft from Windows 3 all the way through to Windows 10 I was astonished at how easy MAC was to use.....over the years photos and documents had got scattered about my PC in different folders.....the MAC simply hoovered them all up and put them in one place.

    Some of us quite like the walled garden, thank you very much.

    Life's too short to be forever 'finding ways around' or fighting with your computer operating system.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    Read the list twice. Corbyn not there. WTF.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Who are Labour putting up for PMQs?

    If it were Corbyn he’d lead on public sector pensions or something equally obscure.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    More like you are paying an Apple premium for something that probably is better than the competition. The number of professionals using Macbooks is very high, based on my observations of London coffee shops, and they can't all be wrong. Lenovo (formerly IBM) Thinkpads are probably next in.
    A lovely bit of selection bias. You are not surveying professionals, you are surveying people who look to you like professionals who spend a lot of time in London coffee shops.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    rkrkrk said:

    Damian Green is doing PMQs today.

    Should be fun.

    Q1: Mr Speaker, the salacious rumours scurry around Whitehall. Cabinets, laptops and servers are searched and examined. Emails are scoured over for the revealing files.

    But perhaps the Honourable Gentlement knows the answer.

    Where are those Brexit Impact Assessments?

    Q2: After the PM's humiliating acceptance of a 50bn Brexit bill, has she fled to Jordan? Isn't she a picture of embarassment?

    I ask the Deputy Prime Minister since he is the expert on embarassing pictures...

    Others will do better I am sure
    They could hardly do worse.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    As with all these things, the devil will be in the details. The chances are that the government will be able to explain it in a way that the middle 80% are happy and the 10% at each extreme are (very) unhappy.

    The key is going to be whether Labour support or oppose the necessary measures in Parliament - if they oppose it then a few rebels on the government side make the arithmetic very close indeed.
    I think an 80-20 breakdown on approval is unlikely.
    I’m not sure you could get 80-20 for England winning the World Cup.
    Are you serious? It will be 80% of the population unhappy. Nobody is going to support this unless she can demonstrate that she has received something in return.
    Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So there will be a trade off.
    No, the payment will become binding in the article 50 treaty, but the delivery of the FTA will not be binding (it is not possible for the EU to agree an FTA in this treaty).

    If the UK had an agreement that it would be linked, they would be busy leaking it. The entire basis of the EUs negotiation has been to separate the issues so that we are fully committed to the Brexit bill regardless of the outcome.
    I think you will prove to be wrong in that. What they wanted was an acknowledgement that we would meet our liabilities as they perceive them. They now have that. It is not legally enforceable. It never will be but we will keep our word once we have given it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801

    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    You don’t seem to like anyone who owns a home?
    If the 1% tax replaced council tax it wouldn’t change much for most and would act as a useful check on house price inflation
    It would also eliminate stamp duty and make houses cheaper. I've been a fan for a while (even though it would force me to sell my house)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    edited November 29

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    More like you are paying an Apple premium for something that probably is better than the competition.
    After a quarter of a century fighting Microsoft from Windows 3 all the way through to Windows 10 I was astonished at how easy MAC was to use.....over the years photos and documents had got scattered about my PC in different folders.....the MAC simply hoovered them all up and put them in one place.

    Some of us quite like the walled garden, thank you very much.

    Life's too short to be forever 'finding ways around' or fighting with your computer operating system.....
    Maccie Thatcher nailed it.

    “A MAN who, beyond the age of 36, finds himself on a Windows PC can count himself a failure.”

    If you like configuring stuff, Windows all the way. But you need to get that out of your system eventually.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,187
    edited November 29
    rkrkrk said:

    Damian Green is doing PMQs today.

    Should be fun.

    Q1: Mr Speaker, the salacious rumours scurry around Whitehall. Cabinets, laptops and servers are searched and examined. Emails are scoured over for the revealing files.

    But perhaps the Honourable Gentlement knows the answer.

    Where are those Brexit Impact Assessments?

    Q2: After the PM's humiliating acceptance of a 50bn Brexit bill, has she fled to Jordan? Isn't she a picture of embarassment?

    I ask the Deputy Prime Minister since he is the expert on embarassing pictures...

    Others will do better I am sure
    Q3: The Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union has expressed concerns that the release of unedited impact assessments to Honourable Members could lead to sensitive information being disclosed to the press. Does the Honourable Gentleman believe it is reasonable to accuse Members of sending inappropriate communications to journalists?
  • Jonathan said:

    Off-topic:

    Oh, Apple ....

    "He found that by entering the username "root", leaving the password field blank, and hitting "enter" a few times, he would be granted unrestricted access to the target machine."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42161823

    How to fix it:

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2017/11/28/apple-macs-have-gaping-root-hole-heres-a-superquick-way-to-check-and-fix-it/
    Easy: don't use Apple. You're paying a premium for something that's frequently no better than the competition, and getting locked into a waled garden as well.
    More like you are paying an Apple premium for something that probably is better than the competition. The number of professionals using Macbooks is very high, based on my observations of London coffee shops, and they can't all be wrong. Lenovo (formerly IBM) Thinkpads are probably next in.
    In a corporate environment when you either get an Apple Mac or a cheap as chips Windows laptop with a rubbish screen and made of plastic.

    No brainer, Apple every time.
    I use a 6 year old Airbook at school. It’s my computer but the IT department have set it up to dual boot so I can use the network properly plus the various bits of specialist software I need. The battery is now shot, but I’d rather have to keep it plugged in than be forced to use one of the school machines.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    Sandpit said:

    Who are Labour putting up for PMQs?

    If it were Corbyn he’d lead on public sector pensions or something equally obscure.

    Lady Bucket
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    felix said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think most people will breathe a sigh of relief; a hurdle to a least bad Brexit has been overcome.

    Can’t really see why anyone would object. Unless you are a moron. And a Brexiter.

    Judging by here and twitter there are more than a few moronic 'remoaners' stalking the ether at the moment.
    I think it’s legitimate to point out that £50bn doesn’t sound like whistling.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    Sandpit said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    Charging me 25% of the current value of my home would cost me more than I origanally paid for it 25 years ago. I would probably be forced to sell it, as would many others. This would cause a massive crash in the value of houses (not least because of the fear that a “one off” charge would be anything but) and thus an immediate severe recession.
    Yes. Any “Property Tax”based on house price would have to refer to the last transaction price for that property, unless whoever is proposing it wishes to see every granny in London evicted from their own home.
    And the Guardian survive. There's always a downside to everything.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,294
    Charles said:

    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    You don’t seem to like anyone who owns a home?
    If the 1% tax replaced council tax it wouldn’t change much for most and would act as a useful check on house price inflation
    It would also eliminate stamp duty and make houses cheaper. I've been a fan for a while (even though it would force me to sell my house)
    Thats a fecking crazy idea. Id have to pay more than 5 figures a year to the fecking govt. No thank you. I'd have to sell too. Its an unworkable tax, loads of large houses would either remain empty or be knocked down .. bonkers
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,157

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I am surprised Theresa May is not on the list for undertaking to pay the biggest ever reparations by a sovereign state.

    Didn’t want to be the guy to bring it back to Brexit - but since you have...

    I am fascinated to see how leavers react.

    Some thought this likely I accept but I think many really thought, including a few on this site, we wouldn’t pay anything/owe anything... and the public. Will they just shrug and say it’s billions either way?

    Labour are not well placed to take advantage (they would surely do the same) - but I suspect when they are criticised for overspending - they will fall back on a line of “- 50bn for Brexit and you’re lecturing us on the magic money tree!”

    Also - a Priti Patel led rebellion? I doubt she has the support, but she will look stupid if she doesn’t criticise given her recent comments?
    I think unless labour play ball may cannot get this through and survive without agreeing a date for her to go. She's been totally in fear of those who would object to any amount and someone will see an opportunity.
    Norman Smith on R4 - “no evidence of Brexiteer revolt yet”
    Waiting for sign of public reaction first.
    If it’s regarded as “too much” do you think it will increase, or reduce, support for the EU?
    That is just about the only predictable thing in the whole Brexit farrago. Remainers will blame leavers; leavers will blame the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Not betting but if I was my money would go on Xi Jinping.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn

    The annual deficit is 1% of that.

    So, in theory, a simple 1% annual tax on the value of all homes would eliminate the deficit. A 25% one-off charge on all homeowners would pay off the entire national debt.

    Charging me 25% of the current value of my home would cost me more than I origanally paid for it 25 years ago. I would probably be forced to sell it, as would many others. This would cause a massive crash in the value of houses (not least because of the fear that a “one off” charge would be anything but) and thus an immediate severe recession.
    Exactly. Plus the emigration.
    two birds with one stone then? houseprices and population both sorted!
    Yeah we could all leave except Jezza and he’ll be left with 25 million homes, all worth zero, he’s taxing to 100% wondering why the numbers don’t add up.
    Diane Abbott could help with the maths.
This discussion has been closed.