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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last 48 hours makes me content to keep on laying David Dav

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last 48 hours makes me content to keep on laying David Davis as next PM/Tory leader

This was @DavidDavisMP on @MarrShow 3 September telling the public a £50bn Brexit divorce bill is "rubbish, nonsense and completely wrong!" pic.twitter.com/wNzY6XeVCf

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    DD is a joke!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    Second! Like Remain.......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    edited November 30
    surbiton said:

    DD is a joke!

    Jokes are funny though, not sure about DD.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    I see Senator Orrin hatch tweeted in support of may...and signs off with OGH.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 162
    edited November 30
    And secondly there doesn't appear to be a single competent minister amongst the leading Leavers in the cabinet. It is no wonder that May has let them sort out the details for our eventual capitulation and withdrawal of Art 50.

    So NI is going to have different customs arrangements to the rest of the UK then. How is that going to work without there being some sort of hard border between them and U.K. Mainland?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,376
    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.
  • You'd think he'd realise its time to stop digging......coming back to the main issue - N Ireland may have the capacity to be the big issue regarding BREXIT, I am thinking FoM, ECJ, FTA have nothing on the complexities of Northern Ireland, it seems many MPS do not understand the nature of the complexity and therefore it is possbly the biggest stumbling block of them all. Is it because of the English/London media bias we have in the UK?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited November 30
    The “Lay the Favourite” rule for the next Conservative leader market still holds, alongside the traditional “Lay Boris, and keep laying Boris” rule.

    In fact the five favourites for next leader are currently Jacob Rees-Mogg (7), Boris Johnson (10), Andrea Leadsom (11), Amber Rudd (12) and David Davis (12.5). They’re all a lay in my book.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
    Indeed. There will be an almighty staged Parliamentary row about various aspects of the Brexit negotiation outcome, but at the end of the day it will pass if the government wishes it to pass.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    MikeL said:

    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.

    Labour are leave supporting.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,376
    edited November 30
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.

    Labour are leave supporting.
    I'm sure Lab will find a way of voting against (though of course Field, Hoey etc will vote in favour).

    However the posters below may well be right - though I wouldn't put money on it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.

    Labour are leave supporting.
    I'm sure Lab will find a way of voting against (though of course Field, Hoey etc will vote in favour).

    However the posters below may well be right - though I wouldn't put money on it.
    I have a pint bet with a friend that at some point during the Parliamentary Brexit process, there will be a photo of Kate Hoey and Ken Clarke together on the Commons terrace with a couple of G+Ts, informally ‘pairing’ during a key vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
    Indeed. There will be an almighty staged Parliamentary row about various aspects of the Brexit negotiation outcome, but at the end of the day it will pass if the government wishes it to pass.
    As we have seen so far with every 'Stop Brexit' drama......
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    edited November 30
    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.

    Labour are leave supporting.
    I'm sure Lab will find a way of voting against (though of course Field, Hoey etc will vote in favour).

    However the posters below may well be right - though I wouldn't put money on it.
    It depends how soft the deal is. The latest rumour of special status for NI makes it 3 nil to the opposition. LINO would probably have majority Lab support if the alternative was No Deal.

    I have never bern convinced by DD as leadership material. I think Hammond is value at the moment, as he seems to have the cabinet coming round to him.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    Extraordinary tweets from the Donald.

    The Emperor has no clothes.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
    Indeed. There will be an almighty staged Parliamentary row about various aspects of the Brexit negotiation outcome, but at the end of the day it will pass if the government wishes it to pass.
    As we have seen so far with every 'Stop Brexit' drama......
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    Sandpit said:

    The “Lay the Favourite” rule for the next Conservative leader market still holds, alongside the traditional “Lay Boris, and keep laying Boris” rule.

    In fact the five favourites for next leader are currently Jacob Rees-Mogg (7), Boris Johnson (10), Andrea Leadsom (11), Amber Rudd (12) and David Davis (12.5). They’re all a lay in my book.

    Amber Rudd at 12 is value/close to value I think.
    She may get the endorsement of the great Ruth, she is in the Cabinet, she doesn't seem to have any major black marks apart from a slim majority.

    But this market scares me a little because I have a heavy anti JRM position... and his odds just keep getting shorter!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030

    Extraordinary tweets from the Donald.

    The Emperor has no clothes.

    Picking a fight with Donald won't do TM any harm with the British public.

    And to be honest - it probably won't do her any harm with Congress either.

    He is surely one of the weakest Presidents ever.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    The “Lay the Favourite” rule for the next Conservative leader market still holds, alongside the traditional “Lay Boris, and keep laying Boris” rule.

    In fact the five favourites for next leader are currently Jacob Rees-Mogg (7), Boris Johnson (10), Andrea Leadsom (11), Amber Rudd (12) and David Davis (12.5). They’re all a lay in my book.

    Amber Rudd at 12 is value/close to value I think.
    She may get the endorsement of the great Ruth, she is in the Cabinet, she doesn't seem to have any major black marks apart from a slim majority.

    But this market scares me a little because I have a heavy anti JRM position... and his odds just keep getting shorter!
    I would back @JRM as next leader, but not next PM, which implies TM fights next election as leader.

    I could only see that happening if the next election came at a time not of the governments choosing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited November 30
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    The “Lay the Favourite” rule for the next Conservative leader market still holds, alongside the traditional “Lay Boris, and keep laying Boris” rule.

    In fact the five favourites for next leader are currently Jacob Rees-Mogg (7), Boris Johnson (10), Andrea Leadsom (11), Amber Rudd (12) and David Davis (12.5). They’re all a lay in my book.

    Amber Rudd at 12 is value/close to value I think.
    She may get the endorsement of the great Ruth, she is in the Cabinet, she doesn't seem to have any major black marks apart from a slim majority.

    But this market scares me a little because I have a heavy anti JRM position... and his odds just keep getting shorter!
    As others have said, JRM is only next leader if Mrs May goes into the next election and loses power, the Mogg is then well placed to take over as LotO. I can’t see him as next leader if that position is to be PM, he’s got no ministerial experience. He may well also run for Speaker if that position comes up in the next couple of years - a job to which he’s well suited. His recent prominence is because he is a very articulate Leaver and a good media performer.

    I just don’t see the attraction of Amber Rudd. The members are unlikely to want a prominent Remainer until Brexit is done and dusted, and her department is going to have to deal with the human element of the ending of Freedom of Movement - which is already generating several bad headlines about letters sent from the Home Office. Her tiny majority isn’t going to help her case either.

    My big greens in this market are Hammond, Hunt and Gove - all of whom have been doing well in their own departments recently.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    HMG has to obtain some meaningful freedom of action on trade, regulation and immigration for the UK within any UK-EU deal.

    If it does, then the divorce bill will be seen as a price worth paying. Especially if spread over 40 years. If it does not, and all the money is just a heavy fee to lock us into most EU regulations and ECJ rulings without any votes or say in exchange for a deal, it will fall.

    Long way to go yet.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 162
    rkrkrk said:

    Extraordinary tweets from the Donald.
    The Emperor has no clothes.

    Picking a fight with Donald won't do TM any harm with the British public.
    And to be honest - it probably won't do her any harm with Congress either.
    He is surely one of the weakest Presidents ever.
    I guess the US is now another country where we can kiss goodbye to getting a fair FTA. Good job we weren't banking on having one with them, oh wait ......
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    Ally_B said:

    And secondly there doesn't appear to be a single competent minister amongst the leading Leavers in the cabinet. It is no wonder that May has let them sort out the details for our eventual capitulation and withdrawal of Art 50.

    So NI is going to have different customs arrangements to the rest of the UK then. How is that going to work without there being some sort of hard border between them and U.K. Mainland?

    You and WilliamGlenn should get married.

    Preferably in Strasbourg, with Guy Verhofstadht as best man, and Barnier as the priest.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049

    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
    Indeed. There will be an almighty staged Parliamentary row about various aspects of the Brexit negotiation outcome, but at the end of the day it will pass if the government wishes it to pass.
    As we have seen so far with every 'Stop Brexit' drama......
    For all the disagreements, the Conservative vote has been remarkably cohesive.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    I think T. May , so far is making the best of a hugely difficult job re Brexit. In other respects of course her leadership style has been poor but on Brexit she has been fairly consistent in what she said from the start. We are moving to a sensible compromise position - much depends now on an element of good faith from the EU, far from a given, and a greater recognition on the part of the Ultras that the result of the referendum was too close for anything other than a compromise negotiation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
    Indeed. There will be an almighty staged Parliamentary row about various aspects of the Brexit negotiation outcome, but at the end of the day it will pass if the government wishes it to pass.
    As we have seen so far with every 'Stop Brexit' drama......
    For all the disagreements, the Conservative vote has been remarkably cohesive.
    Yes, the Government whips have done a very good job so far. I think the closest vote on the amendments last week was 310-299 or 311-300.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    There will be a large pile of fudge on NI. There always has been.
    image
  • I wonder how Tories feel about Trump attacking May?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Sandpit said:

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    There will be a large pile of fudge on NI. There always has been.
    image
    But is it Protestant fudge or Catholic fudge?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    I wonder how Tories feel about Trump attacking May?

    This one doesn’t care. He’s showboating to distract from his domestic problems, the diplomatic relationships that count are as strong as ever.

    Trump will have forgotten about it by next week, so we should too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Woo, congratulations Sir :+1: :D
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Congratulations.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Thank you, gentlemen. That’s two cancers now sorted, thanks to the NHS!
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.

    Labour are leave supporting.
    I rather suspect that when the moment comes that Labour could reverse Brexit. Corbyn will meet with an unfortunate event.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,523

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Glad to hear it OKC :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    O/T Roy Moore has retaken a 5% lead, in a poll that previously had him 4% behind. TSE's bet looks safe.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    Sandpit said:

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    There will be a large pile of fudge on NI. There always has been.
    image
    But is it Protestant fudge or Catholic fudge?
    That's part of the fudge!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Sean_F said:

    O/T Roy Moore has retaken a 5% lead, in a poll that previously had him 4% behind. TSE's bet looks safe.

    LOL. File under “Normal for Alabama”?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    Ally_B said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Extraordinary tweets from the Donald.
    The Emperor has no clothes.

    Picking a fight with Donald won't do TM any harm with the British public.
    And to be honest - it probably won't do her any harm with Congress either.
    He is surely one of the weakest Presidents ever.
    I guess the US is now another country where we can kiss goodbye to getting a fair FTA. Good job we weren't banking on having one with them, oh wait ......
    Likely there will be one at some point in the future. These things really do take years and years to negotiate. We just won't make much progress while Donald is in charge.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
    Indeed. There will be an almighty staged Parliamentary row about various aspects of the Brexit negotiation outcome, but at the end of the day it will pass if the government wishes it to pass.
    As we have seen so far with every 'Stop Brexit' drama......
    For all the disagreements, the Conservative vote has been remarkably cohesive.
    And despite all the alarums and excursions - and allegations of 'not knowing what they want' - the government's position has remained pretty consistent....

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/11/mays-eu-negotiating-position-has-been-more-consistent-than-some-claim-or-you-may-think.html
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,685
    Thusly we need Gove as PM, Mogg as Brexit Secretary, Rory Stewart as general Foreign/Defence Supremo, and Gavin Barwell as general domestic policy supremo. Backed up by a military coup led by Prince Harry, if necessary.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291

    I wonder how Tories feel about Trump attacking May?

    Usual rush of handwringers lining up to shoot the messenger.

    His choice of retweets crass and possibly fake - but there have been how many Islamic terrorist attacks in the Uk in 2017 ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good morning, everyone.

    Watched the first part of the BBC news last night. Had time to wax lyrical about the EU 'divorce bill', but didn't seem (could've been mentioned later, I missed the end) to find the time to mention Barnier's comments about us abandoning them in the fight against terror.

    That Northern Ireland proposal, if accurate, sounds like it might not necessarily be to the advantage of the Con-DUP supply and confidence deal.

    But let us suppose it's fine. How long before the SNP are calling for the same powers for Scotland?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Great news Mr OKC!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,685
    Oh, and something for Daniel Hannan as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    The special relationship is dead. Glad we're not leaving the EU. Oh, wait.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Fantastic news you should celebrate at Nando’s.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,776

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Good to read that.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,342

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Fantastic news all the best OKC.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    King Cole, huzzah!
  • Yorkcity said:

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Fantastic news all the best OKC.
    +1.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Good.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    Jonathan said:

    The special relationship is dead. Glad we're not leaving the EU. Oh, wait.

    In terms of the meaningful bits of the Special Relationship, rather than the ceremonial ones, you have to wonder at what point the US's place in the Five Eyes agreement comes into question.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 3,708

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    That is great news! Congrats :+1:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    Jonathan said:

    The special relationship is dead. Glad we're not leaving the EU. Oh, wait.

    Nah. Its a lot more than the interpersonal relationship between a PM and President - and Trump's latest tweet is a perfect one for May to 'rise above'.....
  • O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Excellent news sir.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    Jonathan said:

    The special relationship is dead. Glad we're not leaving the EU. Oh, wait.

    In terms of the meaningful bits of the Special Relationship, rather than the ceremonial ones, you have to wonder at what point the US's place in the Five Eyes agreement comes into question.
    I think we all need each other - the US relies heavily on British assets in parts of the world (and Australian) and vice versa. Five Eyes will continue long after Trump is an embarrassing footnote in American Presidential history.....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    rkrkrk said:

    Ally_B said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Extraordinary tweets from the Donald.
    The Emperor has no clothes.

    Picking a fight with Donald won't do TM any harm with the British public.
    And to be honest - it probably won't do her any harm with Congress either.
    He is surely one of the weakest Presidents ever.
    I guess the US is now another country where we can kiss goodbye to getting a fair FTA. Good job we weren't banking on having one with them, oh wait ......
    Likely there will be one at some point in the future. These things really do take years and years to negotiate. We just won't make much progress while Donald is in charge.
    We won't ever make progress unless we're prepared to roll over on their terms. The US Congress doesn't really care all that much about a FTA with Britain but they do care about protecting their domestic interests.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Excellent news sir.
    +1
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    On topic, I agree. Those who are insistent that the next Tory leader will have to be a Leaver need to answer the question 'who?'. To me, Gove is the only one capable to doing the job - and even there, I have severe doubts over whether he's a team player.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,371
    TGOHF said:

    I wonder how Tories feel about Trump attacking May?

    Usual rush of handwringers lining up to shoot the messenger.

    His choice of retweets crass and possibly fake - but there have been how many Islamic terrorist attacks in the Uk in 2017 ?
    Let's get this straight. Are you saying that Trump was right to re-tweet Britain First videos?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    Jonathan said:

    The special relationship is dead. Glad we're not leaving the EU. Oh, wait.

    In terms of the meaningful bits of the Special Relationship, rather than the ceremonial ones, you have to wonder at what point the US's place in the Five Eyes agreement comes into question.
    I think we all need each other - the US relies heavily on British assets in parts of the world (and Australian) and vice versa. Five Eyes will continue long after Trump is an embarrassing footnote in American Presidential history.....
    The question is one of security. But I agree that the US's size and resources make any disengagement very dangerous in terms of lost info.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    It was also a bad 48 hours for Gavin Williamson, who as Chief Whip was the genius behind the government boycotting opposition day debate votes that has led to these problems for the government. Quite frankly his ‘cleverness’ is the epitome of a Pyrrhic victory with could see David Davis held in contempt of Parliament.

    The removal of a potential competitor for post of PM is bad news how, exactly?
  • The Minister for Winging It is being found out. Not a huge surprise.
  • On topic, I agree. Those who are insistent that the next Tory leader will have to be a Leaver need to answer the question 'who?'. To me, Gove is the only one capable to doing the job - and even there, I have severe doubts over whether he's a team player.

    Gove’s sheepish thumbs up photo with Trump may prove to have been a mistake.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,342

    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU

    Which is why it won't happen.....
    Indeed. There will be an almighty staged Parliamentary row about various aspects of the Brexit negotiation outcome, but at the end of the day it will pass if the government wishes it to pass.
    As we have seen so far with every 'Stop Brexit' drama......
    For all the disagreements, the Conservative vote has been remarkably cohesive.
    It sure has, one monolithic block.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,105
    It might be worth asking whether there's something inherently bad about Brexit that's causing the politicians who are dealing with it to become unelectable.
  • It's much easier to find lays in this market than backs, isn't it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    It isn't Davis who is useless, but Brexit itself. The most likely and logical explanation for all of this is that the assessments do exist in some detail - as originally described - but are so absolutely damaging to the project (and so to the government itself) that they simply cannot afford to release them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    A Theresa May from Bognor Regis with just six followers on Twitter inadvertently found herself at the centre of a political row between Donald Trump and the Prime Minister last night.

    The President of the United States blasted Mrs May over her criticism of his decision to share anti-Muslim videos posted online by far-right group Britain First.

    But instead of sending his message to Downing Street he sent it to a Theresa May Scrivener who lives in a flat in Bognor.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5131605/Trump-mocked-tweeting-WRONG-Theresa-May.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    edited November 30
    Risk that the attacks on Trump are overdoing it. A Twitter war between the leaders of US and UK isn't good, and the more heat, the more PR for Britain First, a group of which 99% of Britons would never previously have heard.

    There have also been multiple terrorist attacks this year and the diametrically opposing positions taken (Don't Look Back In Anger for dead children, versus evil rightwingers boo hiss for the lunatic driving a van at men emerging from a mosque) are both obviously inconsistent and creates a wide open space for the far right.

    So, some comedy to lighten the mood:


    Edited extra bit: one day I'll remember the subtweet isn't included. It's a reply to Tatchell who wrote the following:
    "Mixed race #MeghanMarkle gets into the royal family. Good for her. But no black Briton can be UK's Head of State for the next 100 years because the post is inherited via the Queen's all-white descendants. Looks like de facto racism to me. I explain here: "
  • HMG has to obtain some meaningful freedom of action on trade, regulation and immigration for the UK within any UK-EU deal.

    If it does, then the divorce bill will be seen as a price worth paying. Especially if spread over 40 years. If it does not, and all the money is just a heavy fee to lock us into most EU regulations and ECJ rulings without any votes or say in exchange for a deal, it will fall.

    Long way to go yet.

    I doubt anyone outside a tiny minority cares about trade and regulation, or the role of the ECJ. Some limits on current freedom of movement will be enough for most voters. Beyond that, what will count long term is how any deal affects living standards. The Tories were elected on a manifesto that promised a Brexit which would improve them and deliver a prosperous, fairer Britain. That’s what needs to be delivered.

  • Sandpit said:

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    There will be a large pile of fudge on NI. There always has been.
    NI is not about fudge. This is the EU getting a head start on forcing the UK as a whole to maintain compliance with EU regulations after Brexit. Which is a problem because we should only have to do this if we stay in the SM and absolutely should not do this if we are going CETA, which is what they are saying we will offer. They will get the UK to make the concession now in relation to NI knowing that it will have to apply to the whole UK.

    The worst of all World's is an FTA with a limit on regulatory divergence, but it suits the EU perfectly. And of course, once we agree to retain EU regulation we will have to agree to ECJ jurisdiction on these matters.

    This is far worse than no deal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    HMG has to obtain some meaningful freedom of action on trade, regulation and immigration for the UK within any UK-EU deal.

    If it does, then the divorce bill will be seen as a price worth paying. Especially if spread over 40 years. If it does not, and all the money is just a heavy fee to lock us into most EU regulations and ECJ rulings without any votes or say in exchange for a deal, it will fall.

    Long way to go yet.

    I doubt anyone outside a tiny minority cares about trade and regulation, or the role of the ECJ. Some limits on current freedom of movement will be enough for most voters.
    I suspect you underestimate the ECJ importance ('sovereignty' was the principal reason given by Leave voters) - but then again since (it is to be hoped) we are still in the ECHR 'foreign courts' won't have 'gone away'.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Excellent news sir.
    +1
    +2
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Archer, in addition, it prolongs the pro- and anti-EU division in this country rather than allowing us to move on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    I disagree entirely. If anything the events of the last 48 hours have increases the likelihood of a Davis premiership and Tory leadership. If we do now get a FTA deal, as seems increasingly likely, then both May and Davis will take some credit and if Boris and Gove having backed the deal will have little scope of any to challenge Davis on a hard Brexit ticket (Boris is particular said the EU could 'go whistle' for any money at all let alone £50 million). The only man who does is Mogg who has made clear he will vote against the payments and a deal.

    That means either Davis or Mogg are likely to succeed May as Tory leader. If Mogg gets through to the membership he may well win. However I think MPs would orchestrate a Davis v Rudd contest which Davis as the Leaver in that scenario would win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    MikeL said:

    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.

    Labour effectively made clear yesterday they would vote for a FTA deal, Corbyn is still refusing to commit to permanent single market membership which would leave free movement in place and anger working class Labour Leave voters
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    The “Lay the Favourite” rule for the next Conservative leader market still holds, alongside the traditional “Lay Boris, and keep laying Boris” rule.

    In fact the five favourites for next leader are currently Jacob Rees-Mogg (7), Boris Johnson (10), Andrea Leadsom (11), Amber Rudd (12) and David Davis (12.5). They’re all a lay in my book.

    Amber Rudd at 12 is value/close to value I think.
    She may get the endorsement of the great Ruth, she is in the Cabinet, she doesn't seem to have any major black marks apart from a slim majority.

    But this market scares me a little because I have a heavy anti JRM position... and his odds just keep getting shorter!
    Me too. Our reassurance is that he would clearly prefer to be Speaker, as his current conduct demonstrates. I suspect the market is being puffed up by Tories who are putting their own enthusiasm before objective assessment. Or at least so my betting account hopes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    MikeL said:

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    I'm afraid it's starting to look pretty doubtful whether the final Brexit deal will get through the Commons.

    It looks as if at least 15 Con Leavers might well vote against because they think the bill will be too high - thinking that if it's voted down we'll leave with No Deal.

    Of course what might well happen is the Govt collapses, Corbyn wins the resulting GE and we end up staying in the EU (at least to all intents and purposes) plus of course we'll have Corbyn as PM as well.

    But no doubt they won't care less - ideological purity will trump everything and no matter what the consequences.

    Labour are leave supporting.
    I'm sure Lab will find a way of voting against (though of course Field, Hoey etc will vote in favour).

    However the posters below may well be right - though I wouldn't put money on it.
    It depends how soft the deal is. The latest rumour of special status for NI makes it 3 nil to the opposition. LINO would probably have majority Lab support if the alternative was No Deal.

    I have never bern convinced by DD as leadership material. I think Hammond is value at the moment, as he seems to have the cabinet coming round to him.
    Hammond polls worse with Survation against Corbyn than Davis and did worse with the Luntz focus group than Davis, it will not be him especially as he is one of the strongest representatives of the Remain and soft Brexit faction in Cabinet he would not get through the membership
  • O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Hurrah.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    Thank you, gentlemen. That’s two cancers now sorted, thanks to the NHS!

    :+1: Great news.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    The “Lay the Favourite” rule for the next Conservative leader market still holds, alongside the traditional “Lay Boris, and keep laying Boris” rule.

    In fact the five favourites for next leader are currently Jacob Rees-Mogg (7), Boris Johnson (10), Andrea Leadsom (11), Amber Rudd (12) and David Davis (12.5). They’re all a lay in my book.

    Amber Rudd at 12 is value/close to value I think.
    She may get the endorsement of the great Ruth, she is in the Cabinet, she doesn't seem to have any major black marks apart from a slim majority.

    But this market scares me a little because I have a heavy anti JRM position... and his odds just keep getting shorter!
    Rudd also did worse than Davis with Survation and Luntz and again the membership will not vote for another Remainer, though she may be the Remain/soft Brexit candidate in the final 2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    Ally_B said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Extraordinary tweets from the Donald.
    The Emperor has no clothes.

    Picking a fight with Donald won't do TM any harm with the British public.
    And to be honest - it probably won't do her any harm with Congress either.
    He is surely one of the weakest Presidents ever.
    I guess the US is now another country where we can kiss goodbye to getting a fair FTA. Good job we weren't banking on having one with them, oh wait ......
    We don't have one with the US now and it is still the largest single UK export market
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    On topic, I agree. Those who are insistent that the next Tory leader will have to be a Leaver need to answer the question 'who?'. To me, Gove is the only one capable to doing the job - and even there, I have severe doubts over whether he's a team player.

    At least out front they could see where he is.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749

    O/t, but personal good news; the oncologist signed me off yesterday, apart from six-monthly monitoring. But he doesn’t expect any problems.

    Congrats Mr OKC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    I wonder how Tories feel about Trump attacking May?

    I expect most establishment Republicans would rather have May as President than Trump, I expect most UKIP voters and diehard Brexiteers would rather now have Trump as PM than May
  • HMG has to obtain some meaningful freedom of action on trade, regulation and immigration for the UK within any UK-EU deal.

    If it does, then the divorce bill will be seen as a price worth paying. Especially if spread over 40 years. If it does not, and all the money is just a heavy fee to lock us into most EU regulations and ECJ rulings without any votes or say in exchange for a deal, it will fall.

    Long way to go yet.

    I doubt anyone outside a tiny minority cares about trade and regulation, or the role of the ECJ. Some limits on current freedom of movement will be enough for most voters.
    I suspect you underestimate the ECJ importance ('sovereignty' was the principal reason given by Leave voters) - but then again since (it is to be hoped) we are still in the ECHR 'foreign courts' won't have 'gone away'.....

    Now that the ECJ red line has gone, my guess is that we’ll see it have some kind of post-Brexit role in a number of important sectors that voters know very little about, but which are pretty important to the regular functioning of the country. No-one will notice beyond the Rees Mogg faction and no-one will care. The impending NI fudge will inevitably involve the ECJ, too.

    The key thing is to get to the trade talks. Once that happens everything changes - including the mood music and even the body language -?as both sides will be actively invested in securing a positive outcome. If Mrs May can see through this facing down of the Brextremists I think it will set her free. I am sure there is a majority in Parliament and the country for a slow, considered disengagement that involves a continuing close relationship with the Single Market and Customs Union. The key issue is limitations on freedom of movement.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    Sean_F said:

    O/T Roy Moore has retaken a 5% lead, in a poll that previously had him 4% behind. TSE's bet looks safe.

    Still too close to call in a state Republicans normally win by 25 to 30%
  • HYUFD said:

    I disagree entirely. If anything the events of the last 48 hours have increases the likelihood of a Davis premiership and Tory leadership. If we do now get a FTA deal, as seems increasingly likely, then both May and Davis will take some credit and if Boris and Gove having backed the deal will have little scope of any to challenge Davis on a hard Brexit ticket (Boris is particular said the EU could 'go whistle' for any money at all let alone £50 million). The only man who does is Mogg who has made clear he will vote against the payments and a deal.

    That means either Davis or Mogg are likely to succeed May as Tory leader. If Mogg gets through to the membership he may well win. However I think MPs would orchestrate a Davis v Rudd contest which Davis as the Leaver in that scenario would win.

    You used to disagree when I said lay Boris.

    How’d that turn out ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    Sandpit said:

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    There will be a large pile of fudge on NI. There always has been.
    NI is not about fudge. This is the EU getting a head start on forcing the UK as a whole to maintain compliance with EU regulations after Brexit. Which is a problem because we should only have to do this if we stay in the SM and absolutely should not do this if we are going CETA, which is what they are saying we will offer. They will get the UK to make the concession now in relation to NI knowing that it will have to apply to the whole UK.

    The worst of all World's is an FTA with a limit on regulatory divergence, but it suits the EU perfectly. And of course, once we agree to retain EU regulation we will have to agree to ECJ jurisdiction on these matters.

    This is far worse than no deal.
    Who is this "we"?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    As all of the other Leaver candidates self-destruct, it is becoming clearer that #Esther4Leader is the only option.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Sandpit said:

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    There will be a large pile of fudge on NI. There always has been.
    NI is not about fudge. This is the EU getting a head start on forcing the UK as a whole to maintain compliance with EU regulations after Brexit. Which is a problem because we should only have to do this if we stay in the SM and absolutely should not do this if we are going CETA, which is what they are saying we will offer. They will get the UK to make the concession now in relation to NI knowing that it will have to apply to the whole UK.

    The worst of all World's is an FTA with a limit on regulatory divergence, but it suits the EU perfectly. And of course, once we agree to retain EU regulation we will have to agree to ECJ jurisdiction on these matters.

    This is far worse than no deal.
    Yes, that’s a risk that we need to continue to bear in mind as we move to the next stage.

    I agree that we shouldn’t try and make different rules for NI, we should stand firm that the way we avoid a border is by tariff-free goods trade between the EU and UK.

    Despite the seeming progress this week, we still need to prepare for the EU side running down the clock with no intention of a trade deal, and be prepared to call them out on it - even if it means walking away.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    As all of the other Leaver candidates self-destruct, it is becoming clearer that #Esther4Leader is the only option.

    In 2030.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    Sandpit said:

    On Northern Ireland, I'll be interested to see the detail.

    It's clear some sort of fudge is coming. But, the GFA already has a fair few fudges in it anyway.

    There will be a large pile of fudge on NI. There always has been.
    NI is not about fudge. This is the EU getting a head start on forcing the UK as a whole to maintain compliance with EU regulations after Brexit. Which is a problem because we should only have to do this if we stay in the SM and absolutely should not do this if we are going CETA, which is what they are saying we will offer. They will get the UK to make the concession now in relation to NI knowing that it will have to apply to the whole UK.

    The worst of all World's is an FTA with a limit on regulatory divergence, but it suits the EU perfectly. And of course, once we agree to retain EU regulation we will have to agree to ECJ jurisdiction on these matters.

    This is far worse than no deal.
    As long as we get a FTA that ends free movement the Leave vote is respected and nothing else matters even sone compliance with EU regulation as the government is already incorporating much EU law into UK law. Remember 48% voted Leave because of economic comcerns so a FTA has to be done while Leave only won over 50% because of free movement concerns not sovereigntyists, Leaving the EU and ending free movement is therefore fine.
This discussion has been closed.