Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tweet that seems to sum up British politics today

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited November 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tweet that seems to sum up British politics today

An analysis of @ShippersUnbound's excellent books illustrates just how British politics has changed since the #Brexit referendum. Noticeable increase in both the FPP Score (up 68%) and CPP score (up 190%). pic.twitter.com/gvsbX0jr3J

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    fuck first
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 30
    fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck first second.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Thurcked
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    Third, like the SNP...
  • Just a reminder, repeated use of the f and c words in their unredacted form gets you automatically smote by the ban hammer.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,106
    My favourite sentence from All Out War was the warning in the introduction that many of the people quoted treat "The Thick of It" as an instruction manual.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339

    My favourite sentence from All Out War was the warning in the introduction that many of the people quoted treat "The Thick of It" as an instruction manual.

    The Thick of It is but a pale imitation of the real thing right now
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    Is this the first appearance of the c word in a PB header?
  • Is this the first appearance of the c word in a PB header?

    No.

    On Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/30/memo-to-the-tories-never-hate-your-enemies-it-affects-your-judgement/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited November 30
    I have to say I didn't expect such appalling language on Chromebook Buyers Weekly forums....I thought it was reserved for Macbook version of the site.
  • Just a reminder, repeated use of the f and c words in their unredacted form gets you automatically smote by the ban hammer.

    Really? Best warn those drunken morons who were using those words to abuse the Irish on here the other night.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck first second.

    From the Penny Mordaunt persuasion!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,507
    I read All Out War - excellent; five stars.

    I've asked the wifey to get me Fall Out for Christmas.

    I'm surprised TSE is still such a Remainer after reading All Out War, where the Remain side come out equally as badly as the Brexit side* (apart from Banks and the Leave EU lot, who seemed hell-bent in knocking 5% off the Leave vote).

    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,106
    Scott_P said:

    My favourite sentence from All Out War was the warning in the introduction that many of the people quoted treat "The Thick of It" as an instruction manual.

    The Thick of It is but a pale imitation of the real thing right now
    Indeed.

    https://www.irishnews.com/magazine/entertainment/2017/10/17/news/british-politics-is-already-too-silly-for-satire-armando-iannucci-1165030/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,359
    Afternoon all :)

    Perhaps a good idea to move rapidly off-topic:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/latest-figures-show-remote-profits-are-up-as-shop-numbers-fall/310437

    Some fascinating data from the gambling world and the bookmaking industry. The whole article is well worth a read but the headline is absurd.

    There remain 8,500 betting shops in the UK and from these the operators made £3.19 billion. For every £ profit after paying out winnings, 43.5p came from traditional over- the counter betting and 56.5p from FOBTs so more than half the GGY (Gross Gambling Yield) from the shops comes from the machines so you can see why the ABB is so worried about any restrictions on their use.

    The amount of GGY from remote and offshore firms rose 10% leading to an overall rise of 1.8% in GGY across the whole industry as shop incomes fell.

    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops.
  • Somebody isn't a fan of Jezza...

    Noel Gallagher: “Fuck Jeremy Corbyn. He’s a Communist”

    http://www.nme.com/news/music/noel-gallagher-fuck-jeremy-corbyn-communist-2166527#78lkWHCE0hzZXQgq.99
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407

    My favourite sentence from All Out War was the warning in the introduction that many of the people quoted treat "The Thick of It" as an instruction manual.

    Worrisome and depressing.
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Perhaps a good idea to move rapidly off-topic:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/latest-figures-show-remote-profits-are-up-as-shop-numbers-fall/310437

    Some fascinating data from the gambling world and the bookmaking industry. The whole article is well worth a read but the headline is absurd.

    There remain 8,500 betting shops in the UK and from these the operators made £3.19 billion. For every £ profit after paying out winnings, 43.5p came from traditional over- the counter betting and 56.5p from FOBTs so more than half the GGY (Gross Gambling Yield) from the shops comes from the machines so you can see why the ABB is so worried about any restrictions on their use.

    The amount of GGY from remote and offshore firms rose 10% leading to an overall rise of 1.8% in GGY across the whole industry as shop incomes fell.

    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops.

    "
    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops."

    Is that supposed to make us feel sorry for them?
  • My favourite sentence from All Out War was the warning in the introduction that many of the people quoted treat "The Thick of It" as an instruction manual.

    Why do you think I used a The Thick Of It quote in the morning thread?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,106
    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    Fenster said:

    I read All Out War - excellent; five stars.

    I've asked the wifey to get me Fall Out for Christmas.

    I'm surprised TSE is still such a Remainer after reading All Out War, where the Remain side come out equally as badly as the Brexit side* (apart from Banks and the Leave EU lot, who seemed hell-bent in knocking 5% off the Leave vote).

    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I agree. I was never much of a fan of Osborne but his prescience in opposing the referendum and his continuing loyalty after Cameron overruled him show him in a much better light.

    I'm sure Cameron now regrets not taking his advice!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,106

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Perhaps a good idea to move rapidly off-topic:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/latest-figures-show-remote-profits-are-up-as-shop-numbers-fall/310437

    Some fascinating data from the gambling world and the bookmaking industry. The whole article is well worth a read but the headline is absurd.

    There remain 8,500 betting shops in the UK and from these the operators made £3.19 billion. For every £ profit after paying out winnings, 43.5p came from traditional over- the counter betting and 56.5p from FOBTs so more than half the GGY (Gross Gambling Yield) from the shops comes from the machines so you can see why the ABB is so worried about any restrictions on their use.

    The amount of GGY from remote and offshore firms rose 10% leading to an overall rise of 1.8% in GGY across the whole industry as shop incomes fell.

    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops.

    "
    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops."

    Is that supposed to make us feel sorry for them?
    Or worry if it means there are only two betting shops in the High Street instead of four?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,330

    Just a reminder, repeated use of the f and c words in their unredacted form gets you automatically smote by the ban hammer.

    As should all the smut that gets posted on here.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 1,507

    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
    Me too. Though I quite liked Osborne. I thought he was unfairly caricatured as a blood-sucking ideologue, when in reality he was a far more liberal and nuanced politician than was reported.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    Just in case people haven't read All Out War, here's a review I can't praise highly enough.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RZJMJ6ACU72BE/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm

    Sadly, I can't give it a 'helpful' vote but others can if they find it so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    PClipp said:

    Just a reminder, repeated use of the f and c words in their unredacted form gets you automatically smote by the ban hammer.

    As should all the smut that gets posted on here.
    Don't you like AV-themed threads?

    *paging Sunil*
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,330

    My favourite sentence from All Out War was the warning in the introduction that many of the people quoted treat "The Thick of It" as an instruction manual.

    Why do you think I used a The Thick Of It quote in the morning thread?
    Because it was smutty.
  • PClipp said:

    Just a reminder, repeated use of the f and c words in their unredacted form gets you automatically smote by the ban hammer.

    As should all the smut that gets posted on here.
    Not by me, I have high standards of moral hygiene, plus I'm a good Muslim boy.

    I only come here for the political analysis and not the betting, honest.
  • PClipp said:

    My favourite sentence from All Out War was the warning in the introduction that many of the people quoted treat "The Thick of It" as an instruction manual.

    Why do you think I used a The Thick Of It quote in the morning thread?
    Because it was smutty.
    Because it was accurate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Perhaps a good idea to move rapidly off-topic:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/latest-figures-show-remote-profits-are-up-as-shop-numbers-fall/310437

    Some fascinating data from the gambling world and the bookmaking industry. The whole article is well worth a read but the headline is absurd.

    There remain 8,500 betting shops in the UK and from these the operators made £3.19 billion. For every £ profit after paying out winnings, 43.5p came from traditional over- the counter betting and 56.5p from FOBTs so more than half the GGY (Gross Gambling Yield) from the shops comes from the machines so you can see why the ABB is so worried about any restrictions on their use.

    The amount of GGY from remote and offshore firms rose 10% leading to an overall rise of 1.8% in GGY across the whole industry as shop incomes fell.

    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops.

    "
    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops."

    Is that supposed to make us feel sorry for them?
    Or worry if it means there are only two betting shops in the High Street instead of four?
    THe sole bookie in my small town is now a MegaBet. It used to be a Stan James, doesn't seem to have changed much on the inside though.
  • Fenster said:

    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
    Me too. Though I quite liked Osborne. I thought he was unfairly caricatured as a blood-sucking ideologue, when in reality he was a far more liberal and nuanced politician than was reported.
    He was always prepared to take one for the team.

    You'll never find a quote on or off the record from Osborne or his 'friends' criticising Dave.

    He remembered David Maxwell Fyfe's maxim that 'Loyalty is the Tory party's secret weapon.'
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
    Me too. Though I quite liked Osborne. I thought he was unfairly caricatured as a blood-sucking ideologue, when in reality he was a far more liberal and nuanced politician than was reported.
    He was always prepared to take one for the team.

    You'll never find a quote on or off the record from Osborne or his 'friends' criticising Dave.

    He remembered David Maxwell Fyfe's maxim that 'Loyalty is the Tory party's secret weapon.'
    Erm, until Mrs May took over. Then he seems to have forgotten that.
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Perhaps a good idea to move rapidly off-topic:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/latest-figures-show-remote-profits-are-up-as-shop-numbers-fall/310437

    Some fascinating data from the gambling world and the bookmaking industry. The whole article is well worth a read but the headline is absurd.

    There remain 8,500 betting shops in the UK and from these the operators made £3.19 billion. For every £ profit after paying out winnings, 43.5p came from traditional over- the counter betting and 56.5p from FOBTs so more than half the GGY (Gross Gambling Yield) from the shops comes from the machines so you can see why the ABB is so worried about any restrictions on their use.

    The amount of GGY from remote and offshore firms rose 10% leading to an overall rise of 1.8% in GGY across the whole industry as shop incomes fell.

    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops.

    Half? They should all be closed. They no longer serve any useful purpose.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 3,359


    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops."

    Is that supposed to make us feel sorry for them?

    Indeed and even in East Ham High Street where there are a dozen betting shops from one end to another, illegal street gambling is rife. Most days there are two or three "Find the Lady" type scams with lookouts who warn the operators if anyone resembling the Police or the Council is about.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    Mortimer said:

    Erm, until Mrs May took over. Then he seems to have forgotten that.

    May was the one who forgot.

    She sacked him for being good at his job to try and boost her Brexit credentials. The first of her many cock-ups
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited November 30
    Mortimer said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
    Me too. Though I quite liked Osborne. I thought he was unfairly caricatured as a blood-sucking ideologue, when in reality he was a far more liberal and nuanced politician than was reported.
    He was always prepared to take one for the team.

    You'll never find a quote on or off the record from Osborne or his 'friends' criticising Dave.

    He remembered David Maxwell Fyfe's maxim that 'Loyalty is the Tory party's secret weapon.'
    Erm, until Mrs May took over. Then he seems to have forgotten that.
    He's been incredibly restrained considering the way she treated and maligned him.

    Just remember she and her team decided to fight the campaign by not doing what Dave and George did.

    Which saw her lose the Tory majority, if only she had listened to George.

    She forgot loyalty is a two way street.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 865

    Somebody isn't a fan of Jezza...

    Noel Gallagher: “Fuck Jeremy Corbyn. He’s a Communist”

    http://www.nme.com/news/music/noel-gallagher-fuck-jeremy-corbyn-communist-2166527#78lkWHCE0hzZXQgq.99

    Who is Noel Gallagher? Does he compare some quiz show or other?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,371
    Scientific study backs up this thread's header.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2154743-politics-chat-on-reddit-reads-like-it-was-written-by-6-year-olds/?utm_campaign=RSSNSNS&utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=RSS&utm_content=news&campaign_id=RSSNSNS-news

    "The team analysed 3.5 billion comments posted by 25.3 million people between 2007 and 2017. They sorted the comments into two groups: one non-political, the other comprised of things posted to politics subreddits, including mainstream groups such as SandersForPresident and The_Donald, where Trump participated in an official discussion. Noting the frequency of offensive words and phrases gave a measure of how civil the discussions were.

    The non-political comments were fairly civil, but the political comments were a different story. People were 35 per cent more likely on average to use offensive language in political than nonpolitical discussions. Political discourse was more offensive between May 2016 and May 2017 than in any other 12-month period in Reddit’s history."
  • Fenster said:

    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
    Me too. Though I quite liked Osborne. I thought he was unfairly caricatured as a blood-sucking ideologue, when in reality he was a far more liberal and nuanced politician than was reported.
    He was always prepared to take one for the team.

    You'll never find a quote on or off the record from Osborne or his 'friends' criticising Dave.

    He remembered David Maxwell Fyfe's maxim that 'Loyalty is the Tory party's secret weapon.'
    David Maxwell Fyfe? Whilst he was Home Secretary and Cabinet Minister for Welsh Affairs, he was known in these parts as 'Dai Bananas'.

    A career blighted, I would say, by the Derek Bentley affair!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    Mortimer said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
    Me too. Though I quite liked Osborne. I thought he was unfairly caricatured as a blood-sucking ideologue, when in reality he was a far more liberal and nuanced politician than was reported.
    He was always prepared to take one for the team.

    You'll never find a quote on or off the record from Osborne or his 'friends' criticising Dave.

    He remembered David Maxwell Fyfe's maxim that 'Loyalty is the Tory party's secret weapon.'
    Erm, until Mrs May took over. Then he seems to have forgotten that.
    He's been incredibly restrained considering the way she treated and maligned him.

    Just remember she and her team decided to fight the campaign by not doing what Dave and George did.

    Which saw her lose the Tory majority, if only she had listened to George.

    She forgot loyalty is a two way street.
    Listening to George didn't work very well in 2010, did it?

    I'm afraid the difference between the way DC and GO have responded to the May Premiership, which was always going to be a very difficult one anyway, speaks volumes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,623
    FPT Charles on sentience:
    "You keep posting on sentience as if it is a minor thing. It really isn't - it was hugely controversial on introduction and has massive philosophical implications in terms of future regulation.

    For example: is it right to test lifesaving drugs on a sentient being without their consent? Is it right to eat them?

    Fundamentally humans are different to other animals and have different rights. The advocates of animal sentience are seeking moral equivalence because of their political end game."

    This is an odd comment for three reasons:

    1. Very few people now adopt Descartes' view that animals are NOT sentient. How much they feel, how similar it is to our feelings, how much we should empathise are all separate questions. But no Ministers or MPs to my knowledge deny animal sentience altogether. Do you?

    2. The issue has come up because of Article 13 of the TFEU (Lisbon Treaty), which acknowledges animal sentience and imposes a requirement that animal welfare be given full regard when new policy is developed. This doesn't apply to existing policy (eating meat or developing drugs, to give your examples), nor does it require that welfare always take priority. It merely requires that full consideration is given. For instance, it would make it harder to sign a trade deal with a country with standard of welfare that we felt were lower, without considering this and putting the case why we should sign anyway.

    3. Specifically, the issue has come up for the Withdrawal Bill, because Michael Gove toldParliament that Article 13 would "absolutely" be included in this Bill, and the Bill's explanatory notes indicate that it is not intended to change the legal position, merely to transfer it to UK sovereignty. If sentience is deliberately omitted, that breaks both commitments.

    And why should the Government omit it anyway, when it doesn't think that animals aren't sentient, and says it doesn't plan to ignore welfare in the future?
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:



    *It must be noted, however, that George Osborne demonstrated remarkable loyalty to Cameron. He never wavered in his support and effectively sacrificed his career on the altar of increasingly apocalyptic claims... all done to help his friend win.

    I read a review of All Out War which described Mr Osborne as the Tragic Hero of Brexit. He didn't want the referendum, tried to dissuade Mr Cameron from calling it, but put his heart and soul into winning it and it cost him his job (probably - at least I suppose it made it easier for Mrs May to sack him).

    I never particularly liked Mr Osborne but I can admire him for that.
    Me too. Though I quite liked Osborne. I thought he was unfairly caricatured as a blood-sucking ideologue, when in reality he was a far more liberal and nuanced politician than was reported.
    He was always prepared to take one for the team.

    You'll never find a quote on or off the record from Osborne or his 'friends' criticising Dave.

    He remembered David Maxwell Fyfe's maxim that 'Loyalty is the Tory party's secret weapon.'
    Erm, until Mrs May took over. Then he seems to have forgotten that.
    He's been incredibly restrained considering the way she treated and maligned him.

    Just remember she and her team decided to fight the campaign by not doing what Dave and George did.

    Which saw her lose the Tory majority, if only she had listened to George.

    She forgot loyalty is a two way street.
    Listening to George didn't work very well in 2010, did it?

    I'm afraid the difference between the way DC and GO have responded to the May Premiership, which was always going to be a very difficult one anyway, speaks volumes.
    2010 saw one the largest number of gains by the Tories in their history.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    RobD said:

    PClipp said:

    Just a reminder, repeated use of the f and c words in their unredacted form gets you automatically smote by the ban hammer.

    As should all the smut that gets posted on here.
    Don't you like AV-themed threads?

    *paging Sunil*
    Where is Sunil,he is usually on most day's.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 756

    Scientific study backs up this thread's header.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2154743-politics-chat-on-reddit-reads-like-it-was-written-by-6-year-olds/?utm_campaign=RSSNSNS&utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=RSS&utm_content=news&campaign_id=RSSNSNS-news

    "The team analysed 3.5 billion comments posted by 25.3 million people between 2007 and 2017. They sorted the comments into two groups: one non-political, the other comprised of things posted to politics subreddits, including mainstream groups such as SandersForPresident and The_Donald, where Trump participated in an official discussion. Noting the frequency of offensive words and phrases gave a measure of how civil the discussions were.

    The non-political comments were fairly civil, but the political comments were a different story. People were 35 per cent more likely on average to use offensive language in political than nonpolitical discussions. Political discourse was more offensive between May 2016 and May 2017 than in any other 12-month period in Reddit’s history."

    Top post on The_Donald today: "Muslim population in Europe to triple by 2050, even with zero migration -- They f**ked!!"

    To save you all the bother, it's a link to a Russia Today article.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good afternoon, my fellow tweeters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    Called it.

    May needs to call their bluff.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Glenn, if so, we could be on for another election.

    *sighs*
  • Called it.

    May needs to call their bluff.
    If the DUP imperil a Brexit deal then the rest of the UK should hold a referendum to expel Northern Ireland from the UK.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Called it.

    May needs to call their bluff.
    If the DUP imperil a Brexit deal then the rest of the UK should hold a referendum to expel Northern Ireland from the UK.
    Don’t give Sturgeon any ideas....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,642
    ot:

    But just heard.
    The independent inquiry into child abuse call for witnesses and statements being hampered by local indepedent radio stations refusing to play adverts asking people to come forward and tell their stories.
    "In case children hear and ask uncomfortable questions."
    Won't someone think of the children?


  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    Or we could just have a trade deal whereby the entire UK has a customs arrangement with the EU. We all expect it to happen anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Mortimer, possible, but requires the EU to actually want such a deal. If murmurings about a cliff-edge come to the fore, that'll encourage Starmer and others batting for the other side to raise the issue of another referendum. That's within the bounds of possibility.
  • All those jobs he's juggling are really starting to take a toll on George Osborne. He keeps forgetting his pass to get into Northcliffe House, home of the Evening Standard.

    When it happened again this week, the security guard let him in through a side door but politely (yet firmly) asked him to please make the effort to remember his pass.

    Could another Plebgate incident be brewing? Let's hope not, as other journalists going in through the correct door have remarked that George has been "looking a little tired" of recent.

    From another PB.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Mr. Mortimer, possible, but requires the EU to actually want such a deal. If murmurings about a cliff-edge come to the fore, that'll encourage Starmer and others batting for the other side to raise the issue of another referendum. That's within the bounds of possibility.

    Can’t believe he’d go against the will of our Sovereign Parliament that voted to leave.

    :smiley:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    Mortimer said:

    Or we could just have a trade deal whereby the entire UK has a customs arrangement with the EU. We all expect it to happen anyway.
    The mythical convergent divergence, or is it divergent convergence?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    Average of 10 most recent opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 40.4%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.0%
    Greens 2.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited November 30
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42182747

    Perhaps it’s time to equalise succession laws for peerages? Couldn’t hurt to have a few more jure uxoris Earls and Dukes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited November 30
    The more I think about it the more Theresa May is just like Margaret Thatcher.

    Like Thatcher Mrs May is going to sell out Northern Ireland to Dublin so enraging the Unionists they'll resign as MPs and trigger a wave of by elections.

    But is Leo Varadkar the Garret FitzGerald de nos jours?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,330
    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42182747

    Perhaps it’s time to equalise succession laws for peerages? Couldn’t hurt to have a few more jure uxoris Earls and Dukes.

    A good argument for abolishing all hereditary titles, surely.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,105
    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    Of course not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    AndyJS said:

    Average of 10 most recent opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 40.4%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.0%
    Greens 2.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results

    Changes since the general election:

    Lab +0.4%
    Con -3.1%
    LD -0.4%
    UKIP +2.1%
    Greens +0.7%
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 243

    The more I think about it the more Theresa May is just like Margaret Thatcher.

    Like Thatcher Mrs May is going to sell out Northern Ireland to Dublin so enraging the Unionists they'll resign as MPs and trigger a wave of by elections.

    But is Leo Varadkar the Garret FitzGerald de nos jours?

    That would be a very foolhardy action by the DUP. In 1985, Ulster Unionism was far more dominant than it is today, the DUP and UUP had a stand down pact with each other, and yet still the unionists lost one of those by-elections to the SDLP. In 2017 it's not impossible to see Sinn Fein winning most votes or most seats - some of the DUP's seats are pretty marginal and if other unionists didn't stand aside they may easily be lost.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    I shall finally get my copy of “All Out War” next week. Have cleared the diary for two days...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    HHemmelig said:

    The more I think about it the more Theresa May is just like Margaret Thatcher.

    Like Thatcher Mrs May is going to sell out Northern Ireland to Dublin so enraging the Unionists they'll resign as MPs and trigger a wave of by elections.

    But is Leo Varadkar the Garret FitzGerald de nos jours?

    That would be a very foolhardy action by the DUP. In 1985, Ulster Unionism was far more dominant than it is today, the DUP and UUP had a stand down pact with each other, and yet still the unionists lost one of those by-elections to the SDLP. In 2017 it's not impossible to see Sinn Fein winning most votes or most seats - some of the DUP's seats are pretty marginal and if other unionists didn't stand aside they may easily be lost.
    It would make much more sense for them not to stand down, but rather to vote against the government, and with the Opposition, on issues where it suited them.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    edited November 30
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
    The odds of your colour winning the next 10 spins in a row is completely unchanged. The results of the 5 previous spins (in this case, losing) are irrelevant to the calculation.

    If you're doing a different calculation of what are the odds of 5 winners in a row, then of course the odds reduce.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Average of 10 most recent opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 40.4%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.0%
    Greens 2.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results

    Changes since the general election:

    Lab +0.4%
    Con -3.1%
    LD -0.4%
    UKIP +2.1%
    Greens +0.7%
    But you need to remember that UKIP and the Greens did not stand in all seats at the general election so the increase in their percentage when comparing the GE result to the polls does not necessarily indicate an increased level of support.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    edited November 30

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Average of 10 most recent opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 40.4%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.0%
    Greens 2.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results

    Changes since the general election:

    Lab +0.4%
    Con -3.1%
    LD -0.4%
    UKIP +2.1%
    Greens +0.7%
    But you need to remember that UKIP and the Greens did not stand in all seats at the general election so the increase in their percentage when comparing the GE result to the polls does not necessarily indicate an increased level of support.
    In a way, that was precisely my point, (although I didn't say so). It looks like there's been hardly any change from the general election once you take the factors you cite into account. The main thing about this data is that the belief that a lot of commentators seem to have at the moment — that Corbyn is pulling away — is a load of nonsense. The Labour vote is practically unchanged from the GE.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited November 30
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Perhaps a good idea to move rapidly off-topic:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/latest-figures-show-remote-profits-are-up-as-shop-numbers-fall/310437

    Some fascinating data from the gambling world and the bookmaking industry. The whole article is well worth a read but the headline is absurd.

    There remain 8,500 betting shops in the UK and from these the operators made £3.19 billion. For every £ profit after paying out winnings, 43.5p came from traditional over- the counter betting and 56.5p from FOBTs so more than half the GGY (Gross Gambling Yield) from the shops comes from the machines so you can see why the ABB is so worried about any restrictions on their use.

    The amount of GGY from remote and offshore firms rose 10% leading to an overall rise of 1.8% in GGY across the whole industry as shop incomes fell.

    The ABB are claiming changes in FOBT regulation would cost over 20,000 jobs and lead to the closure of half the country's betting shops.

    And if they close two of the three shops they currently have on the same street, purely for the FOBTs, they’ll be able to have two members of staff on the late shift in each shop. Win-win, especially for the poor f**kers who dump their whole giro into the damn machines every week and the poor unfortunate minimum wage staff who get assaulted, raped and murdered.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    The more I think about it the more Theresa May is just like Margaret Thatcher.

    Like Thatcher Mrs May is going to sell out Northern Ireland to Dublin so enraging the Unionists they'll resign as MPs and trigger a wave of by elections.

    Here's a reminder of how Sammy Wilson sees the world:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12701362.UDA__apos_has_drawn_up_Doomsday_plan_apos_/

    The ''Doomsday'' scenario recognises there would be large numbers of Catholics left within the Protestant homeland and offers three chilling options on dealing with them -- expulsion, internment, or nullification.

    A prominent member of the Rev. Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party, Mr Sammy Wilson, last night described the alleged Doomsday plan as ''a very valuable return to reality''.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 150
    edited November 30
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
    Yes. The odds of ten in a row is fixed, and is the odds of one instance (I don’t know how a roulette board is configured) to the power n, where n is the number of “goes”.

    However if you have already had five in a row, the odds of you now getting to the end of the sequence will be the odds of five in a row. Only useful or relevant if you can change your strategy part way though. If you think about it, you intuitively know this is right, since on the last roll your odds are obviously the odds for that roll alone.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Average of 10 most recent opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 40.4%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.0%
    Greens 2.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results

    Changes since the general election:

    Lab +0.4%
    Con -3.1%
    LD -0.4%
    UKIP +2.1%
    Greens +0.7%
    But you need to remember that UKIP and the Greens did not stand in all seats at the general election so the increase in their percentage when comparing the GE result to the polls does not necessarily indicate an increased level of support.
    The LDs didn't stand in all seats, so a fall in their percentage indicates an even bigger decline in their level of support!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Average of 10 most recent opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 40.4%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.0%
    Greens 2.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results

    Changes since the general election:

    Lab +0.4%
    Con -3.1%
    LD -0.4%
    UKIP +2.1%
    Greens +0.7%
    But you need to remember that UKIP and the Greens did not stand in all seats at the general election so the increase in their percentage when comparing the GE result to the polls does not necessarily indicate an increased level of support.
    In a way, that was precisely my point, (although I didn't say so). It looks like there's been hardly any change from the general election once you take the factors you cite into account.
    Agreed. Possibly a very slight Tory > Labour swing but well within the MOE.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
    the process is memoryless, though so the last spin has no influence on the next spin.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
    the process is memoryless, though so the last spin has no influence on the next spin.
    The piece is misleadingly phrased. "Increasing to 10" can mean EITHER from the existing five spins, getting another five OR the remaining five spins increasing to 10.

    Makes more sense now although v badly worded.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Average of 10 most recent opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 40.4%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.0%
    Greens 2.4%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results

    Changes since the general election:

    Lab +0.4%
    Con -3.1%
    LD -0.4%
    UKIP +2.1%
    Greens +0.7%
    But you need to remember that UKIP and the Greens did not stand in all seats at the general election so the increase in their percentage when comparing the GE result to the polls does not necessarily indicate an increased level of support.
    The LDs didn't stand in all seats, so a fall in their percentage indicates an even bigger decline in their level of support!
    'Winning here'
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,371
    "You are of royal descent, because everyone is. You are of Viking descent, because everyone is. You are of Saracen, Roman, Goth, Hun, Jewish descent, because, well, you get the idea. All Europeans are descended from exactly the same people, and not that long ago."
    https://www.popsci.com/descended-from-royalty?dom=rss-default&src=syn
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Called it.

    May needs to call their bluff.
    If the DUP imperil a Brexit deal then the rest of the UK should hold a referendum to expel Northern Ireland from the UK.
    Sorry Mr Eagles, but the Conservative and Unionist Party wish to maintain the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland as it is currently constituted, thanks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited November 30
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
    the process is memoryless, though so the last spin has no influence on the next spin.
    But the probability of going from 5/10 to 10/10 is greater than going from 0/10 to 10/10? Agreed that overall the probability of getting ten in a row is unchanged, but at this point, with five banked, the chance of getting five more is a lot smaller.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    Normalcy in DC:

    "White House 'has plan to replace Tillerson'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42187070
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    We're getting dangerously close to talking about betting here, folks!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    Can I just blow my own trumpet now and say that I predicted Tillerson would not last 12 months on the day he was given the job.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 3,966
    edited November 30
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
    the process is memoryless, though so the last spin has no influence on the next spin.
    Ignoring the zero (which only makes things worse), the chance of getting it wrong 10 times in a row is (0.5)^10 = 1/1024, no?

    Seems a very iffy site to me. Best ignored.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    "You are of royal descent, because everyone is. You are of Viking descent, because everyone is. You are of Saracen, Roman, Goth, Hun, Jewish descent, because, well, you get the idea. All Europeans are descended from exactly the same people, and not that long ago."
    https://www.popsci.com/descended-from-royalty?dom=rss-default&src=syn

    But are you descended from the Electress of Hanover... that's all that really matters these days ;)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 744
    Sean_F said:

    HHemmelig said:

    The more I think about it the more Theresa May is just like Margaret Thatcher.

    Like Thatcher Mrs May is going to sell out Northern Ireland to Dublin so enraging the Unionists they'll resign as MPs and trigger a wave of by elections.

    But is Leo Varadkar the Garret FitzGerald de nos jours?

    That would be a very foolhardy action by the DUP. In 1985, Ulster Unionism was far more dominant than it is today, the DUP and UUP had a stand down pact with each other, and yet still the unionists lost one of those by-elections to the SDLP. In 2017 it's not impossible to see Sinn Fein winning most votes or most seats - some of the DUP's seats are pretty marginal and if other unionists didn't stand aside they may easily be lost.
    It would make much more sense for them not to stand down, but rather to vote against the government, and with the Opposition, on issues where it suited them.
    Theresa can of course hold that £1bn package to their noses if they threaten to walk away. Let's see how much their fine principles are really worth. They have some nerve, given the clear remain vote in NI - not quite sure what mandate they really have to insist on regulatory divergence for NI?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,105
    RobD said:

    The piece is misleadingly phrased. "Increasing to 10" can mean EITHER from the existing five spins, getting another five OR the remaining five spins increasing to 10.

    Makes more sense now although v badly worded.

    Yup, I misread it initially (assuming that a site called roulettestrategy would be peddling nonsense!) There isn't a way to beat a fair roulette table.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 243
    edited November 30
    Sean_F said:

    HHemmelig said:

    The more I think about it the more Theresa May is just like Margaret Thatcher.

    Like Thatcher Mrs May is going to sell out Northern Ireland to Dublin so enraging the Unionists they'll resign as MPs and trigger a wave of by elections.

    But is Leo Varadkar the Garret FitzGerald de nos jours?

    That would be a very foolhardy action by the DUP. In 1985, Ulster Unionism was far more dominant than it is today, the DUP and UUP had a stand down pact with each other, and yet still the unionists lost one of those by-elections to the SDLP. In 2017 it's not impossible to see Sinn Fein winning most votes or most seats - some of the DUP's seats are pretty marginal and if other unionists didn't stand aside they may easily be lost.
    It would make much more sense for them not to stand down, but rather to vote against the government, and with the Opposition, on issues where it suited them.
    Agreed

    I think it's also the case that there's a much wider gulf between DUP and UUP than in the 1980s (not least that I think UUP supported Remain). UUP seem less tolerant of the Paisleyite belligerence than 30 years ago. It isn't a given that they'd stand aside for DUP in by-elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited November 30
    Anorak said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Talking of FOBTs, and roulette in particular - I was meandering through some internet pages and came across this, on roulettestrategy.net

    Using European roulette as an example, there’s a 1 in 784 chance that the colour you’re betting on is not going to hit for 10 spins in a row. But this number applies to the start of the event, not during. In other words, when you first spin the wheel there’s a 1 in 784 that you will go on a run of your colour not hitting for 10 spins, but after 5 spins of your colour not hitting, the odds of that increasing to 10 are no longer 1 in 784 because you’ve already had 5 of them, so the odds reduce dramatically.

    Not right, shirley?!

    The odds of getting five colors in a row must be smaller than getting ten, so I think it's correct?
    the process is memoryless, though so the last spin has no influence on the next spin.
    Ignoring the zero (which only makes things worse), the chance of getting it wrong 10 times in a row is (0.5)^10 = 1/1024, no?
    Because of the zero, reds only come up 48.6% of the time (for example), so (0.5135)^10 = 1/784.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    Rumour has been that Tillerson's been unhappy and semi-detached for a while but it's still extraordinary that these internal discussions are being leaked, not least because it's not clear who benefits from a leak.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    Normalcy in DC:

    "White House 'has plan to replace Tillerson'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42187070

    Trump's White House gets closer to resembling the Court of St Petersburg during WWI every day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    1/28
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    Normalcy in DC:

    "White House 'has plan to replace Tillerson'"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42187070

    Not looking too good for avoiding a war in NK if Tillerson replaced, as Trump's frustration on this will be the prime reason.
This discussion has been closed.