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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Toxic Theresa’s ratings hit rock bottom with Ipsos MORI

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Toxic Theresa’s ratings hit rock bottom with Ipsos MORI

Theresa May's ratings are her lowest ever with @IpsosMORI as Corbyn opens up a 20% lead over her. https://t.co/iJgcsr59Sf pic.twitter.com/ueHXb1aiVN

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 1
    First? But Labour's ratings are mostly worse.

    Which should be fertile territory for an alternative.

    Although still within MOE, I note that both the main parties are now polling sub-40%
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    IanB2 said:

    First? But Labour's ratings are mostly worse.

    Which should be fertile territory for an alternative.

    Although still within MOE, I note that both the main parties are now polling sub-40%

    Second. And some of us cling to the straw of last night’s results.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    When will labour be seen as more fit to govern? The Tories have been trying to achieve crossover there, I assume, given their shambling. And seems like the budget is a big, bland neutral one.
  • Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    edited December 1
    IanB2 said:

    First? But Labour's ratings are mostly worse.

    Which should be fertile territory for an alternative.

    Although still within MOE, I note that both the main parties are now polling sub-40%

    My experience as a Labour moderate, and active member, is that there is zero chance of breakaway at the moment. A small number of MPs probably yearn for one, but in most cases that is to satisfy their own thwarted leadership ambitions - they do not have a serious alternative policy offer. But at the grassroots level a there is no talk of breakaways. It is not on the agenda.
  • Mother tucker.

    Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    edited December 1
    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925

    Mother tucker.

    Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

    Lock herhim up
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Mother tucker.

    Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

    Lock herhim up
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I see nothing has changed.
  • IanB2 said:

    Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.

    Could be worse. We could be American.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 315

    Mother tucker.

    Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

    Does that mean he hasn't thrown Jared under a bus?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    IanB2 said:

    Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.

    Don’t forget Cable. I mean, er, *tries to think of an appropriate alliterative* Coprolite Cable?

    IanB2 said:

    Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.

    Could be worse. We could be American.
    Small mercies.
  • Are the Scots, Welsh, and Irish all looking forward to the World Cup draw this afternoon as much as the English.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 570
    edited December 1
    Pulpstar said:


    Lock herhim up

    Sounds like he's only going to get a very short prison sentence, when he could have been facing ten years or more. That means he's given info on someone bigly important.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    Mother tucker.

    Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

    Does that mean he hasn't thrown Jared under a bus?
    He’s pleading guilty.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    Mother tucker.

    Michael Flynn Has Been Charged With Lying To The Government

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/michael-flynn-charged?utm_term=.iaAXl0Ry4P#.gjJyVQvzZK

    Does that mean he hasn't thrown Jared under a bus?
    Who knows. But I doubt he'd have pleaded guilty unless he was either facing an overwhelming mountain of evidence, or he'd agreed a plea bargain in return for information. That second scenario could well involve Jared and a bus.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    What happened with the byelection results yesterday? The Libs Dems have gone superman:

    North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative
    Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP
    Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
    Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD

    It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
    You have to admit that's some Lib Dem surge. From nowhere. Weird.
    The same thing, approximately, happens each year as the nights are dark. LDs are tremendously good at getting voters out in small, concentrated locations, and win when their oppositions are less engaged/motivated. As soon as spring/summer/large scale elections come along, they revert to form.
    So you're betting that come Spring, say May when there are more widespread election, the LibDems will lose out?
    They're not going to get 50% + swings, no.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    On-topic (sort of), this week's blog is about divisions in history:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/divisions-in-history.html
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    +1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    I see the Honduran Presidential election count is still ongoing, many days later. Never a happy time to have such delays, even when innocent of wrongdoing. What I don’t get is why they released partial figures which showed the challenger several points ahead, and of course he’s now saying fraud now the word is he might just be pipped by the incumbent, who has caught up. Maybe he would have alleged fraud anyway if he lost, but if it was going to take so long, why release any partials at all, given it would only give whoever ‘benefits’ as the full amounts come in something to rile up supporters with.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366

    Are the Scots, Welsh, and Irish all looking forward to the World Cup draw this afternoon as much as the English.

    World Cup you say?
    We're concentrating on the Ashes at the moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Are the Scots, Welsh, and Irish all looking forward to the World Cup draw this afternoon as much as the English.

    You're missing this:

    *innocent face*
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    FWIW, I still think that the odds on Trump going before the end of his first term shouldn't be any shorter than 3/1. It is bloody hard impeaching a president, particularly where the evidence chain is indirect.

    Makes that state visit less likely though.
  • felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    You don’t think Theresa May’s worst ever ratings aren’t toxic ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    No, but they are in a bad way and even if they dont fall further theres not much reason to think they will rise higher either.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Speaking of football, I'm thinking of starting to bet on it. Any general pointers?

    [F1 season review will probably be up over the weekend. I remain confused as to how I finished ahead].
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749

    Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

    This is why I liked the guy,he should have stayed on and tried to clear up the mess he left.
  • Are the Scots, Welsh, and Irish all looking forward to the World Cup draw this afternoon as much as the English.

    World Cup you say?
    We're concentrating on the Ashes at the moment.
    The Ashes? Doesn't count when our vice-captain isn't playing.

    To be honest I think the Tartan Army have dodged a bullet, I suspect being a visiting fan in Russia next year isn't going to be fun.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Johnno, wish he was still an MP, but I can see why he resigned as PM.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749

    Mr. Johnno, wish he was still an MP, but I can see why he resigned as PM.

    I can Mr dancer but I could have seen a Cameron that came out fighting and who would have respected the result.
  • Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

    This is why I liked the guy,he should have stayed on and tried to clear up the mess he left.
    You're saying Brexit is a mess?

    Interesting
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,083
    What is Trump accused of now?

    He's certainly guilty of being uncouth, but how is seeking to influence the American election illegal? Isn't that what the Democrats were seeking to do? Not very well as it happened.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937

    Speaking of football, I'm thinking of starting to bet on it. Any general pointers?

    [F1 season review will probably be up over the weekend. I remain confused as to how I finished ahead].

    Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    On-topic (sort of), this week's blog is about divisions in history:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/divisions-in-history.html

    The end bit about the greater dislike is directly on-topic.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.
    True. Although the real laugh is that with a government in considerable difficulties on the one hand, and an opposition that would rather be a student protest group than a government on the other, the Lib Dems are still in single figures.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,632

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.
    They should be storming ahead, and they're not.

    I'd be twitching if I were (a) compos mentes and (b) Labour supporting.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    The most surprising point to me in this IpsosMORI poll is that Chancellor Hammond gets such good ratings compared with an (admittedly hypothetical) Chancellor Gove, and even more so that the disparity is even greater amongst Conservative supporters.

    Maybe we shouldn't write off those Hammond for PM betting slips quite yet.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.
    Yes, I agree entirely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. B2, I'm not sure whether the suggestion I'm directly on-topic is praise or censure :p

    Mr. Z, I am mildly amused that the first response to my pointers request on gambling on football is "Don't".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 10,366

    Are the Scots, Welsh, and Irish all looking forward to the World Cup draw this afternoon as much as the English.

    World Cup you say?
    We're concentrating on the Ashes at the moment.
    The Ashes? Doesn't count when our vice-captain isn't playing.

    To be honest I think the Tartan Army have dodged a bullet, I suspect being a visiting fan in Russia next year isn't going to be fun.
    It would have been an interesting test of the not entirely accurate 'Scottish fans are universally loved' meme.

    'See, even these neo-Fascist, quasi criminal, paramilitary, Russki ultras think we're great.'
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    You don’t think Theresa May’s worst ever ratings aren’t toxic ?
    No, you don't think they aren't toxic.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 6,549

    The most surprising point to me in this IpsosMORI poll is that Chancellor Hammond gets such good ratings compared with an (admittedly hypothetical) Chancellor Gove, and even more so that the disparity is even greater amongst Conservative supporters.

    Maybe we shouldn't write off those Hammond for PM betting slips quite yet.

    Does that say more about Hammond being popular, or Gove just being truly radioactively unpopular??
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407
    edited December 1

    On-topic (sort of), this week's blog is about divisions in history:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/divisions-in-history.html

    I regret to say, Mr Dancer, that I cannot appear to access the link - perhaps your words are too provocative to make it past the Great Firewall. What’s the précis?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    edited December 1

    Speaking of Dave, he's given an interview to the FT.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7e16fd9e-d673-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

    This is why I liked the guy,he should have stayed on and tried to clear up the mess he left.
    You're saying Brexit is a mess?

    Interesting
    Only by the EU holding things up and the remain media/supporters ;-)

    Watching to much sky news

    Lol
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    Danny565 said:

    Does that say more about Hammond being popular, or Gove just being truly radioactively unpopular??

    It could certainly be the latter, but if that were the only driver surely the gap would be smaller, not bigger, amongst Conservative supporters.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 570
    edited December 1
    Ishmael_Z said:


    Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

    Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. kle4, short intro and outro about the EU and divisions in the UK (neutral stuff), then three historical examples of divisions:
    oligarchs and democrats in the Peloponnesian War
    iconoclasts and iconodules in Byzantium
    Guelphs and Ghibellines

    The ending is about people not necessarily supporting their own side as disliking the other.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,632
    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    No, but they are in a bad way and even if they dont fall further theres not much reason to think they will rise higher either.
    The historical trend on IPSOS, with one or two exceptions, is that once you're done, you're done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407

    Mr. kle4, short intro and outro about the EU and divisions in the UK (neutral stuff), then three historical examples of divisions:
    oligarchs and democrats in the Peloponnesian War
    iconoclasts and iconodules in Byzantium
    Guelphs and Ghibellines

    The ending is about people not necessarily supporting their own side as disliking the other.

    Iconodules? Guelphs? Ghibellines? Sounds like a cracker of a post.

    But now time for bed - Tianemmen Square in the morning.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Given that the opposition is led by a commie apologiser for terrorism who wants to disarm the UK, counts Hamas and the IRA amongst his friends, intends to nationalise all private property, turn the UK into Venezuela and lacks the confidence of most of his MPs it is a miracle that Labour is polling so well.
    True. Although the real laugh is that with a government in considerable difficulties on the one hand, and an opposition that would rather be a student protest group than a government on the other, the Lib Dems are still in single figures.
    Their part in the coalition has left them unable to capitalise on the travails of the other parties. They are damned by the left as proponents of austerity and by the right as traitors on Brexit. There is no clear way forward for them while Vince "tuition fees" Cable remains leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 27,407


    IanB2 said:

    First? But Labour's ratings are mostly worse.

    Which should be fertile territory for an alternative.

    Although still within MOE, I note that both the main parties are now polling sub-40%

    My experience as a Labour moderate, and active member, is that there is zero chance of breakaway at the moment. A small number of MPs probably yearn for one, but in most cases that is to satisfy their own thwarted leadership ambitions - they do not have a serious alternative policy offer. But at the grassroots level a there is no talk of breakaways. It is not on the agenda.
    No kidding - there was barely any talk it seems even when disaster was thought to loom.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    Mr. Johnno, wish he was still an MP, but I can see why he resigned as PM.

    I can Mr dancer but I could have seen a Cameron that came out fighting and who would have respected the result.
    The same people who routinely refer to TCO made that idea a complete fantasy.

    It is of course true that the Conservative Leave cohort is stuffed full of inept ninnies, but it's a bit rich to detonate a bomb and then expect the grown-ups to clear up the wreckage.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,632
    ... and also I think in reference to the head to head

    https://image.slidesharecdn.com/politicalmonitornovember2017-171201140532/95/political-monitor-november-2017-24-638.jpg?cb=1512137773

    Not as good as Osborne, is the gist of it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 1
    Andrew said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

    Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

    If you read anything about Tony Bloom, who for a number of years has been the world best football bettor, his margins are tiny....and this is a bloke who has a who firm of over 150 data analysts, computer programmers etc working for him.

    Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

    The take away from this, betting on football is an absolute mugs game.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. kle4, hope you like it.

    I visited with a Chinese chap who, to my great concern, pushed into a massive queue right in front of an armed soldier. Luckily, nobody cared.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963

    ... and also I think in reference to the head to head

    https://image.slidesharecdn.com/politicalmonitornovember2017-171201140532/95/political-monitor-november-2017-24-638.jpg?cb=1512137773

    Not as good as Osborne, is the gist of it.

    Notable there that the figure for whoever is the Labour Shadow Chancellor hardly varies - it looks as though 30% of respondents will always prefer the Labour alternative.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Mr. B2, I'm not sure whether the suggestion I'm directly on-topic is praise or censure :p

    Mr. Z, I am mildly amused that the first response to my pointers request on gambling on football is "Don't".

    I remember @isam formerly of this parish talking about his football betting syndicate on here a couple of years ago. Three people working full time on various spreadsheets and about £75k in capital staked per week for an average 5-7% return. Football is a very efficient market due to the number of people betting on it, and it’s very difficult to make money as a result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925

    Andrew said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

    Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

    If you read anything about Tony Bloom, who for a number of years has been the world best football bettor, his margins are tiny....and this is a bloke who has a who firm of over 150 data analysts, computer programmers etc working for him.

    Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

    The take away from this, betting on football is an absolute mugs game.
    The 15:00 result just gone at Newbury is a reminder of why I stick mainly to politics ! Beating football seems very hard to me, the volumes almost ensure perfectly efficient markets.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    You don’t think Theresa May’s worst ever ratings aren’t toxic ?
    If they were the Tories would be polling in the 20/30% range. You view everything through your rather bizarre love affair with GO and hostility to Brexit. Result is hyperbole.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Sandpit, hmm. Bit discouraging but useful information nevertheless.

    I could always return to tennis. The problems I have with that is that Betfair changed the way the past head-to-heads is presented (sounds minor but it makes things a pain in the arse to check), and the, ahem, irregular nature of some results.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    You don’t think Theresa May’s worst ever ratings aren’t toxic ?
    No, you don't think they aren't toxic.
    Lol - kinda proves my point.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,632
    Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

    Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

    If you read anything about Tony Bloom, who for a number of years has been the world best football bettor, his margins are tiny....and this is a bloke who has a who firm of over 150 data analysts, computer programmers etc working for him.

    Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

    The take away from this, betting on football is an absolute mugs game.
    The 15:00 result just gone at Newbury is a reminder of why I stick mainly to politics ! Beating football seems very hard to me, the volumes almost ensure perfectly efficient markets.
    There were loopholes in the recent past - 2-1 and 2-0 wins in international football being somewhat mispriced but as said, the sheer volume of money and means has ironed out the quirks.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    Danny565 said:

    The most surprising point to me in this IpsosMORI poll is that Chancellor Hammond gets such good ratings compared with an (admittedly hypothetical) Chancellor Gove, and even more so that the disparity is even greater amongst Conservative supporters.

    Maybe we shouldn't write off those Hammond for PM betting slips quite yet.

    Does that say more about Hammond being popular, or Gove just being truly radioactively unpopular??
    I think it says the budget hasn't had a bad press and Gove has not been much in the news.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    On the Chancellor issue.

    Hammond is a steady hand who has managed to produce a budget that didn't fall apart by the end of the afternoon - unlike Osborne of course.

    Gove is an unknown as far as financial issues go but who is known to have taken radical solutions in the departments he has managed.

    I am not at all surprised that sentiment favours Hammond.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 1,632

    ... and also I think in reference to the head to head

    https://image.slidesharecdn.com/politicalmonitornovember2017-171201140532/95/political-monitor-november-2017-24-638.jpg?cb=1512137773

    Not as good as Osborne, is the gist of it.

    Notable there that the figure for whoever is the Labour Shadow Chancellor hardly varies - it looks as though 30% of respondents will always prefer the Labour alternative.
    I'd be interested in seeing it go further back - even when Osborne was notionally unpopular, iirc, he was outdoing Balls on that polling quite comfortably.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    You don’t think Theresa May’s worst ever ratings aren’t toxic ?
    If they were the Tories would be polling in the 20/30% range. You view everything through your rather bizarre love affair with GO and hostility to Brexit. Result is hyperbole.
    People used to say that to me prior to June 8th.

    I was right on Mrs May.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited December 1
    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    The most surprising point to me in this IpsosMORI poll is that Chancellor Hammond gets such good ratings compared with an (admittedly hypothetical) Chancellor Gove, and even more so that the disparity is even greater amongst Conservative supporters.

    Maybe we shouldn't write off those Hammond for PM betting slips quite yet.

    Does that say more about Hammond being popular, or Gove just being truly radioactively unpopular??
    I think it says the budget hasn't had a bad press and Gove has not been much in the news.
    Defra ain’t the most glamarous of departments, although it does sound like he is pulling his weight.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Andrew said:

    Ishmael_Z said:


    Doesn't efficient market theory suggest that you would be better off sticking to politics? Does one get mispricings in the football market like we've seen in politics in recent times?

    Football (at least the larger leagues) has the most efficient markets of any sport. You can tell by the limits and profit margins the top books have on it.

    If you read anything about Tony Bloom, who for a number of years has been the world best football bettor, his margins are tiny....and this is a bloke who has a who firm of over 150 data analysts, computer programmers etc working for him.

    Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

    The take away from this, betting on football is an absolute mugs game.
    The 15:00 result just gone at Newbury is a reminder of why I stick mainly to politics ! Beating football seems very hard to me, the volumes almost ensure perfectly efficient markets.
    I didn't back it, but Beer Goggles was plainy overpriced at 40/1. It's a classic case of Improver versus Overhyped Star(s).
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    No, but they are in a bad way and even if they dont fall further theres not much reason to think they will rise higher either.
    The historical trend on IPSOS, with one or two exceptions, is that once you're done, you're done.
    T. May will not fight the next GE. Her ratings and probably the party's too will depend on how the public view Brexit at the end. If it is not the disaster that many predict, and indeed are hoping for, things will look very different.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    These re sports betting, you are more likely to have an edge* in playing DFS than going straight up against the highly efficient sports betting market.

    * However, for major US sports like baseball, again some individuals have thrown huge amount of time and resources at the game and made it very difficult to compete.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    kle4 said:


    IanB2 said:

    First? But Labour's ratings are mostly worse.

    Which should be fertile territory for an alternative.

    Although still within MOE, I note that both the main parties are now polling sub-40%

    My experience as a Labour moderate, and active member, is that there is zero chance of breakaway at the moment. A small number of MPs probably yearn for one, but in most cases that is to satisfy their own thwarted leadership ambitions - they do not have a serious alternative policy offer. But at the grassroots level a there is no talk of breakaways. It is not on the agenda.
    No kidding - there was barely any talk it seems even when disaster was thought to loom.

    There was a lot more talk about it before the general election than there is now. But the errors of the 1980s still loom large to those of us who can remember them and there are signs that Corbyn and McDonnell are moderating their positions somewhat in order to keep everybody on board (such as the acceptance of an EEA transition deal).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    edited December 1
    Corbyn's brother's take on the Trump tweet controversy:

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Urquhart, DFS?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 1

    Mr. Urquhart, DFS?

    Daily Fantasy Sports.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    You don’t think Theresa May’s worst ever ratings aren’t toxic ?
    If they were the Tories would be polling in the 20/30% range. You view everything through your rather bizarre love affair with GO and hostility to Brexit. Result is hyperbole.
    People used to say that to me prior to June 8th.

    I was right on Mrs May.
    And yet she remains while Osborne edits a free giveaway rag offering cheap soundbites for inner London Labourites. How the once mighty have fallen.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn's brother's take on the Trump tweet controversy:

    Lol - sharp! Not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 1
    RobD said:

    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    The most surprising point to me in this IpsosMORI poll is that Chancellor Hammond gets such good ratings compared with an (admittedly hypothetical) Chancellor Gove, and even more so that the disparity is even greater amongst Conservative supporters.

    Maybe we shouldn't write off those Hammond for PM betting slips quite yet.

    Does that say more about Hammond being popular, or Gove just being truly radioactively unpopular??
    I think it says the budget hasn't had a bad press and Gove has not been much in the news.
    Defra ain’t the most glamarous of departments, although it does sound like he is pulling his weight.
    DEFRA is going to be a huge department as we leave the CAP though. Gove does seem to be doing a good job so far, even Nick Palmer was giving him praise the other day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    AndyJS said:

    Corbyn's brother's take on the Trump tweet controversy:

    The effectiveness of all this was recently documented by a Harvard University study into two million news stories written before the last presidential election. It showed that journalists largely followed Trump’s agenda, wittingly or not. In denouncing him, they played into his hands. Immigration, the topic that benefited him the most, became the defining issue of the campaign. Coverage of Hillary Clinton, however, focused on scandals: her deleted emails and the financing of her husband’s foundation.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/30/trump-keeps-setting-agenda-twitter-critics-keep-rising-bait/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Urquhart, ah, cheers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    A senior Anglican minister has been criticised for saying people should pray for Prince George to be gay to help the Church of England recognise same-sex marriage.

    The Very Reverend Kelvin Holdsworth wrote a blog post urging people to pray him "to be blessed one day with the love of a fine young gentleman".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42192706

    Bizarre.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937

    Mr. B2, I'm not sure whether the suggestion I'm directly on-topic is praise or censure :p

    Mr. Z, I am mildly amused that the first response to my pointers request on gambling on football is "Don't".

    Mr D, it's your money, but the more closely a betting market converges on perfect efficiency, the more certain the punter is to lose; you are like someone who is bored of dining on fillet steak, and inclined to experiment with tinned cat food.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    A senior Anglican minister has been criticised for saying people should pray for Prince George to be gay to help the Church of England recognise same-sex marriage.

    The Very Reverend Kelvin Holdsworth wrote a blog post urging people to pray him "to be blessed one day with the love of a fine young gentleman".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42192706

    Bizarre.

    Freakery has always featured strongly in the Anglican church. If people want to pray about the young prince surely a happy and fulfilling life should cover it - not divinely ordered social engineering.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    edited December 1
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    Given that government is having to deal with one of the most difficult and divisive changes to national direction we have seen since WWII and as a minority government propped up by the DUP, under a PM who is not naturally gifted at engaging with the public, and amidst all the scandals, disunity, confusion, and sexual misconduct allegations, and all this at a time when the public finances remain tight and the economy is slowing, it's a bleeding miracle that the figures aren't massively worse.

    Yes - despite TSE's hyperbole the figures really don't match the rhetoric and the frustration shows through in his rather desperate use of language.
    No, but they are in a bad way and even if they dont fall further theres not much reason to think they will rise higher either.
    The historical trend on IPSOS, with one or two exceptions, is that once you're done, you're done.
    T. May will not fight the next GE. Her ratings and probably the party's too will depend on how the public view Brexit at the end. If it is not the disaster that many predict, and indeed are hoping for, things will look very different.
    I think it almost inevitable that it will be seen as a disaster, if only because everything that goes wrong just about anywhere will be blamed on Brexit for years to come. It already features in every company announcement of bad news, every piece of economic data that is below expectation and it's blamed for everything from a lack of nurses in the health service to a decline in the UK's diplomatic influence. It's a ready-made scapegoat for all kinds of bad news - just like the EU used to be before the referendum!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Z, ha, I wouldn't describe this season's overall result as steak.

    I am grateful for your, and others', response, though. It's proven quite enlightening. To be honest, I'd never considered statistical efficiency when betting on F1. I just go for things I think are value (and then get annoyed when the only car to break down is the only car I've backed...).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    A senior Anglican minister has been criticised for saying people should pray for Prince George to be gay to help the Church of England recognise same-sex marriage.

    The Very Reverend Kelvin Holdsworth wrote a blog post urging people to pray him "to be blessed one day with the love of a fine young gentleman".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42192706

    Bizarre.

    Cuckoos normally appear in the Spring!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    FIFA world rankings really are nonsense.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 570

    Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

    Yep - on the upside, they can bet tens of thousands, or often hundreds of thousands, on every match. In other sports you can have much higher returns, but can struggle to get more than a few hundred down.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 1
    Andrew said:

    Of the top of my head, a really good year for his crew is in the region of 3%.

    Yep - on the upside, they can bet tens of thousands, or often hundreds of thousands, on every match. In other sports you can have much higher returns, but can struggle to get more than a few hundred down.
    Only because he does it in Far East through a big network of agents. He wouldn't be able to do it here.
  • IanB2 said:

    Toxic Theresa versus Corrosive Corbyn. How blessed we are in our leaders.

    Could be worse. We could be American.
    Or even worse: From Essex.*

    * Or maybe a Radiohead fan or summinck.
  • England drawn in Belgium's group.
This discussion has been closed.