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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wow, just WOW

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wow, just WOW

JUST IN: @BrianRoss on @ABC News Special Report: Michael Flynn promised "full cooperation to the Mueller team" and is prepared to testify that as a candidate, Donald Trump "directed him to make contact with the Russians." https://t.co/aiagnvr8eS pic.twitter.com/r8u2LWAd0O

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Comments

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    first?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    "DOJ weighing federal charges in Kate Steinle murder case, after not guilty verdict"

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/01/doj-weighing-federal-charges-in-kate-steinle-murder-case-after-not-guilty-verdict.html
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    In a sense a game changer - but are any of us really surprised?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Hmm. Those betting the other day on no state visit might be collecting sooner than expected.

    Depending on the wording of the bet (ie Trump/the President of the US).
  • Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
  • Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 744
    I fear you are wrong.

    As with Brexit, voters have made their mind up on Trump and the camps are entrenched and miles apart. Any wavering is seen as disloyalty first and foremost, and there can be no deviation from your side, or acknowledgement that the other side have a point or there are weaknesses in your argument.

    I hope I'm wrong. I fear I'm not.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited December 1
    rkrkrk said:

    In a sense a game changer - but are any of us really surprised?

    I never expected

    1) It to happen so soon, I was expecting a long drawn out investigation

    2) Mike Flynn to become a rat and squeal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    This comes down to who are these Russians and what exactly happened with them. Could be serious for Trump or could just be another storm in a teacup.
  • Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    God forbid
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    edited December 1
    FPT
    felix said:

    felix said:



    Yes but the hype is so extreme that unless we really do have floods, pestilence and the £ sinks without trace - things won't seem so bad. After all the fact that the £ has held up well above $ and € parity so far has already confounded many predictions made just after the vote.

    Certainly things have not turned out as bad as project fear suggested but nor are they anywhere near as good as leavers promised. We have already seen the promises of a simple, cost-free exit disappear like the autumn mist and it is clear beyond reasonable doubt that our exit will be on unfavourable terms dictated by the EU. There seems to be no hope of living standards rising for the forseeable future and the famous £350m for the NHS will never be delivered. We were promised all the trading advantages of EU membership but none of the costs - what we seem to be getting is all the costs and precious few of the advantages. This is unlikely to escape the notice of the electorate over the next few years.
    52% voted for it unlike me. I believe many did not expect it to be all goodies from day 1. The polling recently has shown little significant change in peoples' views. Again like so many hard core 'remainers' you over egg the negatives and assume the voters will follow your lead. I did not want Brexit but I am sceptical about the portents of doom and I hope for a better outcome. Can you honestly say the same?
    I think doom is too strong a word but I do think Brexit will have a very negative effect in the long run - it is already becoming evident in that UK growth is slowing down whilst world growth is speeding up. The UK is likely to enter into a long period of relative decline and it's quite hard to see how this could be reversed. Over time I think most foreign investment will relocate to the continent and London will gradually lose its position as Europe's financial centre and return to the kind of position it had in the 1970s - important, but not the major world city it is today. A cliff edge Brexit would speed up this process considerably.

    Of course I hope for a better outcome, but it's very hard to see how this could come about.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    If Trump goes, Pence is next up. If he goes, it's... Ryan?

    [I'm aware we're a long way from even Trump going, just contemplating contingencies].
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    I fully expect the markets to considerably overreact. Will GOP senators vote to convict? Would the House vote to impeach? For all Flynn's plea, I'm sceptical that they would. Yet. If he does go early, it'll be because of something he does as president (which may be in connection to this case) than for anything that happened in the election.
  • If Trump goes, Pence is next up. If he goes, it's... Ryan?

    [I'm aware we're a long way from even Trump going, just contemplating contingencies].

    Between now and January 2019 it's Paul Ryan after Pence, but after January 2019 it is likely to be Nancy Pelosi.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 1

    rkrkrk said:

    In a sense a game changer - but are any of us really surprised?

    I never expected

    1) It to happen so soon, I was expecting a long drawn out investigation

    2) Mike Flynn too become a rat and squeal.
    On 2), isn’t that how the “justice” system works in the US though - the Feds charge someone junior and threaten him with 20 years to life unless he talks, in which case it’ll be six months’ house arrest?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    edited December 1
    Firstly of course, this is AFTER the election, so forget all the Russian collusion stuff.

    All we have so far is the Brian Ross report. Post-election, it was perfectly reasonable for Trump to direct Flynn to talk to nations including the Russians about the UN December vote. The question is what did he tell Flynn to say?

    Also at this point Obama was still POTUS at it was pre-inauguration, so Trump should have stayed clear of breaking away from Obama's policy. Only 1 president at a time..

    Which brings us to Flynn. He worked for the Obama administration but was agitating too much against radical islamic terrorism for them, so they had issues and fired him. Obama warned Trump not to hire Flynn, and apparently had him under surveillance! Once he lied to Pence about what he said to the Russians he was fired forthwith. So he has some credibility issues.

    You might want to wait before pronouncing this a game changer. We've known this was coming for over a week. The question is what else does he have to tell Mueller? So far it's a non-event. Potentially that may change.

    Prosecuting an ex-official for lying when he was fired for lying by 2 administrations is a nuthin' burger.


    - and we're not even mentioning his foreign agent problems, and his son's activities, all of which is yet to come to light.
  • I fully expect the markets to considerably overreact. Will GOP senators vote to convict? Would the House vote to impeach? For all Flynn's plea, I'm sceptical that they would. Yet. If he does go early, it'll be because of something he does as president (which may be in connection to this case) than for anything that happened in the election.

    It might be possible he tries to have his own Saturday night massacre and that's tipping point.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    Don't first-strike nuclear orders have to be counter-authorised by another senior official?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Eagles, cheers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    God forbid
    Indeed. I am in one of my gloomy, black dog days, so hopefully I am being too pessimistic.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    If Trump goes, Pence is next up. If he goes, it's... Ryan?

    [I'm aware we're a long way from even Trump going, just contemplating contingencies].

    Not necessarily. Congress can appoint a new VP (the Gerald Ford scenario).
  • Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    In a sense a game changer - but are any of us really surprised?

    I never expected

    1) It to happen so soon, I was expecting a long drawn out investigation

    2) Mike Flynn too become a rat and squeal.
    On 2), isn’t that how the “justice” system works in the US though - the Feds charge someone junior and threaten him with 20 years to life unless he talks, in which case it’ll be six months’ house arrest?
    According to the report I heard Flynn switched because he felt abandoned by Trump and was facing crippling legal costs.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    edited December 1
    Politics is becoming more and more like a Victorian penny-dreadful where each chapter ends with a dramatic twist to the plot.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    On topic, the big question is how much hard evidence Flynn has of Trump's instruction. If Trump simply accuses Flynn of lying (as he may well) how does Flynn counter that?

    I'm far from convinced that this is yet a game-changer.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051

    rkrkrk said:

    In a sense a game changer - but are any of us really surprised?

    I never expected

    1) It to happen so soon, I was expecting a long drawn out investigation

    2) Mike Flynn too become a rat and squeal.
    Conventional wisdom here is that after so long a with such a big and expensive investigation, Mueller had to come up with something, as the whole "Russia election collusion" angle is clearly not going anywhere.

    Flynn - allegedly- is copping this plea (which is a cup cake compared to what they could have got him for) at least in part to help his son. The fact it's a single indictment means that there is at least one more shoe to fall, as part of his proffer deal with Mueller.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    Don't first-strike nuclear orders have to be counter-authorised by another senior official?
    Don't think so.

    http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2016/11/18/the-president-and-the-bomb/
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    tpfkar said:

    I fear you are wrong.

    As with Brexit, voters have made their mind up on Trump and the camps are entrenched and miles apart. Any wavering is seen as disloyalty first and foremost, and there can be no deviation from your side, or acknowledgement that the other side have a point or there are weaknesses in your argument.

    I hope I'm wrong. I fear I'm not.

    Sadly, I agree. Also I'm not convinced that the evidence of a man who has pleaded guilty to having lied can be regarded as a reliable witness about anything.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    @TheScreamingEagles - I’m with you on 1) but 2) disagree

    Clear I think that Flynn had some dirt and given the trouble he has found himself in...
  • Mike Flynn the John Dean de nos jours?
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    FPT

    felix said:

    felix said:



    Yes but the hype is so extreme that unless we really do have floods, pestilence and the £ sinks without trace - things won't seem so bad. After all the fact that the £ has held up well above $ and € parity so far has already confounded many predictions made just after the vote.

    Certainly things have not turned out as bad as project fear suggested but nor are they anywhere near as good as leavers promised. We have already seen the promises of a simple, cost-free exit disappear like the autumn mist and it is clear beyond reasonable doubt that our exit will be on unfavourable terms dictated by the EU. There seems to be no hope of living standards rising for the forseeable future and the famous £350m for the NHS will never be delivered. We were promised all the trading advantages of EU membership but none of the costs - what we seem to be getting is all the costs and precious few of the advantages. This is unlikely to escape the notice of the electorate over the next few years.
    52% voted for it unlike me. I believe many did not expect it to be all goodies from day 1. The polling recently has shown little significant change in peoples' views. Again like so many hard core 'remainers' you over egg the negatives and assume the voters will follow your lead. I did not want Brexit but I am sceptical about the portents of doom and I hope for a better outcome. Can you honestly say the same?
    I think doom is too strong a word but I do think Brexit will have a very negative effect in the long run - it is already becoming evident in that UK growth is slowing down whilst world growth is speeding up. The UK is likely to enter into a long period of relative decline and it's quite hard to see how this could be reversed. Over time I think most foreign investment will relocate to the continent and London will gradually lose its position as Europe's financial centre and return to the kind of position it had in the 1970s - important, but not the major world city it is today. A cliff edge Brexit would speed up this process considerably.

    Of course I hope for a better outcome, but it's very hard to see how this could come about.
    Did you see today's manufacturing PMI? Monthly figures vary but the direction of travel is interesting.
  • Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    God forbid
    Indeed. I am in one of my gloomy, black dog days, so hopefully I am being too pessimistic.
    There is a lot to be gloomy about but we have very much more to be grateful for.

    Brexit hopefully will see sensible compromises and we could all do to leave behind our locked in remain and leave positions and actively support a confident and successful Brexit.

    It is not often said on here but the EU have huge contrary forces and the idea the 27 are full of harmony and joy is far from the reality of the EU both now and into the future
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051

    On topic, the big question is how much hard evidence Flynn has of Trump's instruction. If Trump simply accuses Flynn of lying (as he may well) how does Flynn counter that?

    I'm far from convinced that this is yet a game-changer.

    There's also the possibility that Flynn delivered a different message to what Trump told him to say. That's one of the things Obama warned Trump about Flynn.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    If Trump goes, Pence is next up. If he goes, it's... Ryan?

    [I'm aware we're a long way from even Trump going, just contemplating contingencies].

    Not necessarily. Congress can appoint a new VP (the Gerald Ford scenario).
    Yes, it would depend on the timing and sequencing of resignations. If either Trump or Pence go they’d want to quickly confirm another VP if the Speaker was a Democrat.

    Just about the only conceivable scenario where the Speaker directly becomes President would be a double assassination. AIUI POTUS and Veep never travel together and rarely appear in public together outside Washington.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,342

    Politics is becoming more and more like a Victorian penny-dreadful where each chapter ends with a dramatic twist to the plot.

    Very Charles Dickens , Hard Times.
  • Is Tommy Robinson calling Donald Trump a w*nker? Mass debate

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    God forbid
    Indeed. I am in one of my gloomy, black dog days, so hopefully I am being too pessimistic.
    There is a lot to be gloomy about but we have very much more to be grateful for.

    Brexit hopefully will see sensible compromises and we could all do to leave behind our locked in remain and leave positions and actively support a confident and successful Brexit.

    It is not often said on here but the EU have huge contrary forces and the idea the 27 are full of harmony and joy is far from the reality of the EU both now and into the future
    Tensions in EU could rapidly become highly critical if Macron pushes forward on his plans for a new europe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 1
    .
    felix said:

    FPT

    felix said:

    felix said:



    Yes but the hype is so extreme that unless we really do have floods, pestilence and the £ sinks without trace - things won't seem so bad. After all the fact that the £ has held up well above $ and € parity so far has already confounded many predictions made just after the vote.

    Certainly things have not turned out as bad as project fear suggested but nor are they anywhere near as good as leavers promised. We have already seen the promises of a simple, cost-free exit disappear like the autumn mist and it is clear beyond reasonable doubt that our exit will be on unfavourable terms dictated by the EU. There seems to be no hope of living standards rising for the forseeable future and the famous £350m for the NHS will never be delivered. We were promised all the trading advantages of EU membership but none of the costs - what we seem to be getting is all the costs and precious few of the advantages. This is unlikely to escape the notice of the electorate over the next few years.
    52% voted for it unlike me. I believe many did not expect it to be all goodies from day 1. The polling recently has shown little significant change in peoples' views. Again like so many hard core 'remainers' you over egg the negatives and assume the voters will follow your lead. I did not want Brexit but I am sceptical about the portents of doom and I hope for a better outcome. Can you honestly say the same?
    I think doom is too strong a word but I do think Brexit will have a very negative effect in the long run - it is already becoming evident in that UK growth is slowing down whilst world growth is speeding up. The UK is likely to enter into a long period of relative decline and it's quite hard to see how this could be reversed. Over time I think most foreign investment will relocate to the continent and London will gradually lose its position as Europe's financial centre and return to the kind of position it had in the 1970s - important, but not the major world city it is today. A cliff edge Brexit would speed up this process considerably.

    Of course I hope for a better outcome, but it's very hard to see how this could come about.
    Did you see today's manufacturing PMI? Monthly figures vary but the direction of travel is interesting.
    And this report from CityAM this morning. #despitebrexit
    http://www.cityam.com/276748/city-firms-hiring-spree-salaries-look-set-keep-rising
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051

    Mike Flynn the John Dean de nos jours?

    Flynn was an exceptional intelligence officer but as he rose through the ranks he exhibited poor judgment and a disregard for the truth and sailed pretty close to the wind in his international dealings..

    The networks are now emphasizing that the lies Flynn told Pence were the same ones the feds got him for.

    The one thing we don't know is what he talked to the Russian ambassador about which got him fired. The plea agreement doesn't say. There is no suggestion to this point that Flynn did anything illegal at all except to lying to investigators.

    The one thing not appearing anywhere is the slightest taint of Russian collusion.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    Is this the reason for the rather bizarre re-tweet earlier in the week. A diversion from the more serious case?

    Or was it to keep the racists and screwballs on-board while the Flynn business took its course.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,423
    edited December 1
    Trump should probably take his usual def/offensive action & fire the guy. ....
    OH .

    Big G said:
    "Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone."

    Well the fact that the country's been running in spite of Trump, sort of, does indicate a certain stability, thanks to the original framers of the constitution. Ideally that stability will extend to a Trump excretion.
  • There's been a discussion in the office about Trump's State visit.

    Just imagine if Charles was King, he'd be likely to publicly say he wouldn't entertain Trump on his visit.

    Then where would we be?
  • Tim_B said:

    Mike Flynn the John Dean de nos jours?

    Flynn was an exceptional intelligence officer but as he rose through the ranks he exhibited poor judgment and a disregard for the truth and sailed pretty close to the wind in his international dealings..

    The networks are now emphasizing that the lies Flynn told Pence were the same ones the feds got him for.

    The one thing we don't know is what he talked to the Russian ambassador about which got him fired. The plea agreement doesn't say. There is no suggestion to this point that Flynn did anything illegal at all except to lying to investigators.

    The one thing not appearing anywhere is the slightest taint of Russian collusion.
    It is time for a prosecution under the Logan Act.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    Don't first-strike nuclear orders have to be counter-authorised by another senior official?
    Don't think so.

    http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2016/11/18/the-president-and-the-bomb/
    OK. Fair enough.

    That said, I think I remember from Yes Prime Minister that it's much the same here. (The advice given Hacker was to avoid getting drunk).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    There's been a discussion in the office about Trump's State visit.

    Just imagine if Charles was King, he'd be likely to publicly say he wouldn't entertain Trump on his visit.

    Then where would we be?

    Charles with sky-high popularity ratings? ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited December 1

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    Don't first-strike nuclear orders have to be counter-authorised by another senior official?
    Don't think so.

    http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2016/11/18/the-president-and-the-bomb/
    OK. Fair enough.

    That said, I think I remember from Yes Prime Minister that it's much the same here. (The advice given Hacker was to avoid getting drunk).
    Haven't Kelly and Mattis discussed physically tackling Trump before he launches the nukes?

    Edit - Republicans Are Talking About Tackling Trump If He Goes for the Nuclear Football

    https://www.gq.com/story/nuclear-football-tackle
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    There is of course a personal side to this - Flynn is facing crippling legal bills, his professional career is in ruins, and he didn't want either himself or his family to go through another 2 to 3 years of this anguish, so making a deal does make sense for him.

    Flynn is selling his home because he's so short of cash. He may be an imperfect person but he's still human.

    It's getting so that the facade of the E Barrett Prettyman United States Court House is very familiar.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    they reckon Jared Kushner could be in big trouble. It would be worthwhile if it put a stop to US nepotism once and for all. They make the the Saudi Arabians look like a meritocracy
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    What happens if Meghan Markle's number appears on Matt Lauer's speed dial?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    Roger said:

    they reckon Jared Kushner could be in big trouble. It would be worthwhile if it put a stop to US nepotism once and for all. They make the the Saudi Arabians look like a meritocracy

    Have you looked at Saudi Arabia recently? Talk about hyperbole!
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,423

    There's been a discussion in the office about Trump's State visit.

    Just imagine if Charles was King, he'd be likely to publicly say he wouldn't entertain Trump on his visit.

    Then where would we be?

    But a popular King Charles the III wouldn't be following the script.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Charles_III_(play)
  • RobD said:

    Roger said:

    they reckon Jared Kushner could be in big trouble. It would be worthwhile if it put a stop to US nepotism once and for all. They make the the Saudi Arabians look like a meritocracy

    Have you looked at Saudi Arabia recently? Talk about hyperbole!
    Had Hillary become President last year, 4 out 5 last Presidents would have been related to each other.
  • Oh my, looks like the Republic of Ireland are taking back control.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,623
    edited December 1

    On topic, the big question is how much hard evidence Flynn has of Trump's instruction. If Trump simply accuses Flynn of lying (as he may well) how does Flynn counter that?

    I'm far from convinced that this is yet a game-changer.

    That was my feeling too. Probably Trump will say just that, and his fans will believe him. Or he can say sure, he told Flynn to talk to lots of people in case he became President, always useful to sound out your future partners.

    On the last thread, by the way, the +12 for the Tories on "good for people like me" is wrong - it should be -12. Interesting that the parties are nearly level on "good leaders" and "extreme".
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937

    There's been a discussion in the office about Trump's State visit.

    Just imagine if Charles was King, he'd be likely to publicly say he wouldn't entertain Trump on his visit.

    Then where would we be?

    I think Chazza will feel (correctly) that if he is King at all, it's very much on sufferance, and his best plan is keep quiet and not attract attention to himself. I think there has already been a diminution in public twattery from him. Camilla was liked by 33% of the public in the recent poll, and there's still a lot of downside in that.

    More interesting and likely, what if the PM at the time of the visit is Jezza?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    they reckon Jared Kushner could be in big trouble. It would be worthwhile if it put a stop to US nepotism once and for all. They make the the Saudi Arabians look like a meritocracy

    Have you looked at Saudi Arabia recently? Talk about hyperbole!
    Even Maggie Thatcher wouldn't have had Mark meeting her foreign dignitaries in Downing St in her place
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    The FBI will not want to put Flynn on the stand, given his arm's length relationship with the truth, so expect him to be comprehensively debriefed by the feds over the next few weeks, They will want to get evidence from him that can be corroborated by other less problematic witnesses.
  • Tusk - "I realize that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. This is why the key to the UK’s future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue.”
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123

    Wow, oh wow! Please, please make this not be fake news.

    Trump gone would be fabulous - but utter chaos seems highly likely and not good for anyone
    Just think - could Theresa out last Merkel and Trump
    Not sure NK will though very sadly. Trump is likely to take Rocket Man down with him, as a final f-u act.
    Don't first-strike nuclear orders have to be counter-authorised by another senior official?
    Don't think so.

    http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2016/11/18/the-president-and-the-bomb/
    OK. Fair enough.

    That said, I think I remember from Yes Prime Minister that it's much the same here. (The advice given Hacker was to avoid getting drunk).
    Haven't Kelly and Mattis discussed physically tackling Trump before he launches the nukes?

    Edit - Republicans Are Talking About Tackling Trump If He Goes for the Nuclear Football

    https://www.gq.com/story/nuclear-football-tackle
    It is said that in 1974, when Watergate engulfed Nixon, the then Secretary for Defence, Schlesinger, agreed with the Chiefs of Staff that they would not act on any White House orders without referring to him. This was because they believed that Nixon might try to stage a coup. One hopes that there is a similar arrangement in place now to forestall Trump.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Tusk - "I realize that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. This is why the key to the UK’s future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue.”

    So I was right. The EU are just trying to run the clock down and have no intention of giving us the type of comprehensive trade deal that would allow for an open border in Ireland.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485

    On topic, the big question is how much hard evidence Flynn has of Trump's instruction. If Trump simply accuses Flynn of lying (as he may well) how does Flynn counter that?

    I'm far from convinced that this is yet a game-changer.

    That was my feeling too. Probably Trump will say just that, and his fans will believe him. Or he can say sure, he told Flynn to talk to lots of people in case he became President, always useful to sound out your future partners.

    On the last thread, by the way, the +12 for the Tories on "good for people like me" is wrong - it should be -12. Interesting that the parties are nearly level on "good leaders" and "extreme".
    According to someone well informed on the 5 pm News Flynn wouldn't have done this without making a deal on his future incarceration and there's no way they would have given him that deal unless he had PROVABLE and significant evidence against the presidents staff at least at the level of Kushner
  • Sandpit said:

    Tusk - "I realize that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. This is why the key to the UK’s future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue.”

    So I was right. The EU are just trying to run the clock down and have no intention of giving us the type of comprehensive trade deal that would allow for an open border in Ireland.
    And if they do not they do not get anything from the UK and hard Brexit it is - just to be clear I do not want that outcome but the EU are playing very high stakes especially Ireland
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    Roger said:

    On topic, the big question is how much hard evidence Flynn has of Trump's instruction. If Trump simply accuses Flynn of lying (as he may well) how does Flynn counter that?

    I'm far from convinced that this is yet a game-changer.

    That was my feeling too. Probably Trump will say just that, and his fans will believe him. Or he can say sure, he told Flynn to talk to lots of people in case he became President, always useful to sound out your future partners.

    On the last thread, by the way, the +12 for the Tories on "good for people like me" is wrong - it should be -12. Interesting that the parties are nearly level on "good leaders" and "extreme".
    According to someone well informed on the 5 pm News Flynn wouldn't have done this without making a deal on his future incarceration and there's no way they would have given him that deal unless he had PROVABLE and significant evidence against the presidents staff at least at the level of Kushner
    Flynn is trying to stay solvent, save his family and avoid bankruptcy, Mueller is under pressure to get something as the original reason for appointing him has gone away and he's burning through huge wads of cash on his investigation.

    The only reason for flipping Flynn is to get further up the chain of command. The plea agreement says virtually nothing. So we have no idea what they do or don't have. For all we know Flynn just cried Uncle.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Sandpit, indeed. They're doing their best for a cliff-edge, either as punishment for a democratic decision or to try and force us to change our minds and recant.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    edited December 1
    Sandpit said:

    Tusk - "I realize that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. This is why the key to the UK’s future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue.”

    So I was right. The EU are just trying to run the clock down and have no intention of giving us the type of comprehensive trade deal that would allow for an open border in Ireland.
    No - selective quoting from TSE [ i'm shocked]. Tusk also said it was clear that final agreement on the border could not come till trade talks begin.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    Oh my, looks like the Republic of Ireland are taking back control.

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Sandpit said:

    Tusk - "I realize that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. This is why the key to the UK’s future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue.”

    So I was right. The EU are just trying to run the clock down and have no intention of giving us the type of comprehensive trade deal that would allow for an open border in Ireland.
    And if they do not they do not get anything from the UK and hard Brexit it is - just to be clear I do not want that outcome but the EU are playing very high stakes especially Ireland
    Indeed. I think we’d all like to remain on good terms and continue trading with the EU after we leave, but they’re sounding more and more like the type of vindictive ex-wife who doesn’t care if all the family’s money goes to the lawyers so long as you don’t get to keep any of it. Not a good look.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    Possible by-election in Washington DC Central. The LibDems must fancy their chances.

    (I might be getting a bit confused here.)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    Meanwhile, the pressure grows on Franken and Conyers to quit.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 8,837
    Tim_B said:

    There is of course a personal side to this - Flynn is facing crippling legal bills, his professional career is in ruins, and he didn't want either himself or his family to go through another 2 to 3 years of this anguish, so making a deal does make sense for him.

    Flynn is selling his home because he's so short of cash. He may be an imperfect person but he's still human.

    It's getting so that the facade of the E Barrett Prettyman United States Court House is very familiar.

    I know, can any amongst us truthfully say we haven't lied to the FBI about meeting Russians?

    A common, everyday activity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tusk - "I realize that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. This is why the key to the UK’s future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue.”

    So I was right. The EU are just trying to run the clock down and have no intention of giving us the type of comprehensive trade deal that would allow for an open border in Ireland.
    No - selective quoting from TSE [ i'm shocked]. Tusk also said it was clear that final agreement on the border could not come till trade talks begin.
    Ah. Okay, good to hear. As long as win-win is still on the table then I’m happy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,051
    Apparently Flynn is prepared to testify that "senior transition officials" at Mar a Largo in late December told him to talk to various nation including Russia, and what they told him to say.

    That's presumably code for one of the top team members, already starting to Make America Great Again...

    I doubt it will happen though....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    I thought they had a veto at the first stage but QMV on trade. In any event the Irish have already said this (referring in passing to said veto), so the EU statement simply confirms it:

    Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney is pragmatic: “We don’t need to use a veto because we have complete solidarity on this issue with 26 other EU countries. It is clear to us that if there is not progress on the Irish Border, we will not be moving on to phase two [of Brexit negotiations] in December and that was reinforced to me ... by very senior EU leaders.”
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Tusk acknowledged that in his statement.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.
    Wasn't Barnier talking about moving to phase 2?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 1

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.
    OK, I have it the wrong way around, my apologies. I am sure I saw some commentary to the contrary, but anyhow. I should know that trade is unanimity after the Canada saga.

    I guess the talk of the Irish veto now was because they always had the option of vetoing the final deal if they were unhappy with the border issue resolution.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.
    Wasn't Barnier talking about moving to phase 2?
    That step needs endorsement by the EU heads of government as I recall.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    I'm not sure if it is chicken and egg or just cutting off the nose to spite the face. Either way, a dose of common sense in Brussels and Dublin would be most welcome.
  • This afternoon's news re: Michael Flynn plus the tiff between La May and Trump make Ladbrokes odds of 6/4 against Trump visiting the U.K. during 2018 look pretty good value, but as ever DYOR.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.

    We are looking at a Canada-style final deal. The EU has made that clear on a number of occasions. So we do know where we would be heading.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.
    Wasn't Barnier talking about moving to phase 2?

    We are getting there. Mrs May has decided to face down the loons in her own party. It’s just the DUP to go now.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,127

    This afternoon's news re: Michael Flynn plus the tiff between La May and Trump make Ladbrokes odds of 6/4 against Trump visiting the U.K. during 2018 look pretty good value, but as ever DYOR.

    No bet for me. A useful distraction from affairs at home.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.

    We are looking at a Canada-style final deal. The EU has made that clear on a number of occasions. So we do know where we would be heading.

    I think that possible, but not certain. What issues are covered are the devil in the detail. Agricultural standards? financial services? etc.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056

    ....a dose of common sense in Brussels and Dublin would be most welcome.

    Scarcer than Unobtanium.....

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874

    IanB2 said:

    Since they have a veto, surely it is just a statement of the obvious.

    They don't have a veto, it's QMV.

    In any case, it also works the other way. If 'no deal' is unacceptable to Ireland - which it is - then presumably 'no deal' is unacceptable to the EU.

    Lord only knows why they are playing silly games over this, when it's as plain as a pikestaff that border arrangements depend crucially on the final EU-UK relationship which they are refusing to discuss. Just weird.

    Not quite true. The A50 negotiations are QMV, a trade deal needs unanimity. In reality though the distinction is academic as the EU27 have held solidarity very well.

    We are looking at a Canada-style final deal. The EU has made that clear on a number of occasions. So we do know where we would be heading.

    I think that possible, but not certain. What issues are covered are the devil in the detail. Agricultural standards? financial services? etc.

    We just need progress at this stage. The onus is on us to show how the promises made by the UK about the Irish border can work within the context of a Canada style deal. There are clearly solutions. It’s just that they’ll not be palatable to the DUP. But why should they get to derail everything?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546

    rkrkrk said:

    In a sense a game changer - but are any of us really surprised?

    I never expected

    1) It to happen so soon, I was expecting a long drawn out investigation

    2) Mike Flynn to become a rat and squeal.
    I expected it to happen before Christmas... but I still think it will be a long drawn out investigation.
    Kushner is likely the next target.

    As for Flynn squealing, why the surprise ?
    (Not least as his son might otherwise have been facing charges - note his statement included doing "the best for my family"... as well as the country. Probably the first time in a while he's spoken the unvarnished truth.)

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    My Trump departure 2018 dabble ought to be looking good tonight.
    :-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,315
    Sandpit said:

    Tusk - "I realize that for some British politicians this may be hard to understand. This is why the key to the UK’s future lies - in some ways - in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations continue.”

    So I was right. The EU are just trying to run the clock down and have no intention of giving us the type of comprehensive trade deal that would allow for an open border in Ireland.
    Which hurts...

    ...The Irish most of all.

    The Irish government is seeking to make political capital out of the Brexit negotiations. But, they also know that a "no deal" scenario is particularly serious for them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,315
    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, the pressure grows on Franken and Conyers to quit.

    Franken's position looks very precarious. If any more comes out, I think he has to go.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,315

    This afternoon's news re: Michael Flynn plus the tiff between La May and Trump make Ladbrokes odds of 6/4 against Trump visiting the U.K. during 2018 look pretty good value, but as ever DYOR.

    What if he comes as a private citizen?
This discussion has been closed.