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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The most accurate pollster at the general election gives Labou

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The most accurate pollster at the general election gives Labour an 8% lead a majority of 10

Tonight’s @Survation poll.LAB 45% (+1) CON 37% (-1) LD 6% (-1) UKIP 4% (NC) SNP 3% (NC) GRE 1%. Changes since Oct. Fieldwork Thurs/Fri. pic.twitter.com/ijJ1cIWusB

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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880
    edited December 2
    1st like Jezza
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 756
    Guess it's time to make serious plans to leave the country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 2
    This poll is actually not enough to lead to a Labour majority government as on a straight Tory to Labour swing it would see Labour on 316 seats and the Tories on 262 seats and the LDs on 14 seats. That is based on the last Scottish Westminster poll showing no further Labour gains from the SNP since June plus even this Survation poll has the SNP unchanged since the general election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 2
    Plus don't forget Survation actually slightly underestimated the Tory lead at the last general election as it had the Tories with a 1% lead in its final poll and the Tories ended up with a 2% lead.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880
    HYUFD said:

    This poll is actually not enough to lead to a Labour majority government as on a straight Tory to Labour swing it would see Labour on 316 seats and the Tories on 262 seats and the LDs on 14 seats. That is based on the last Scottish Westminster poll showing no further Labour gains from the SNP since June.

    Lab will make gains from SNP IMO.

    Especially as they have a real chance of being in Government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Given the flow of news, this looks a credible poll series.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 2
    The times suggesting the plod have been up to no good re green case. Keeping secret files despite being told that investigation over and data should be destroyed.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    HYUFD said:

    Plus don't forget Survation actually slightly underestimated the Tory lead at the last general election as it had the Tories with a 1% lead in its final poll and the Tories ended up with a 2% lead.

    Clutching at straws.

    This is a bit of an outlier, but on the other hand from the gold standard.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    HYUFD said:

    This poll is actually not enough to lead to a Labour majority government as on a straight Tory to Labour swing it would see Labour on 316 seats and the Tories on 262 seats and the LDs on 14 seats. That is based on the last Scottish Westminster poll showing no further Labour gains from the SNP since June.

    Lab will make gains from SNP IMO.

    Especially as they have a real chance of being in Government.
    On both this poll and the last full Scottish Westminster poll they won't
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880
    HYUFD said:

    Plus don't forget Survation actually slightly underestimated the Tory lead at the last general election as it had the Tories with a 1% lead in its final poll and the Tories ended up with a 2% lead.

    Whereas Martin KABOOM Boon was only out by 100 seats
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
  • Looks like the leaking Green rozzers are going to be in so much trouble.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    HYUFD said:

    Plus don't forget Survation actually slightly underestimated the Tory lead at the last general election as it had the Tories with a 1% lead in its final poll and the Tories ended up with a 2% lead.

    Clutching at straws.

    This is a bit of an outlier, but on the other hand from the gold standard.

    If you have a Labour lead of 6% rather than 8% to correct for the Survation error in June and leave the rest of the numbers unchanged on Electoral Calculus (ie even including Labour gains from the SNP) you get to Labour 321 seats and the Tories on 266 ie leaving Labour still 5 seats short of an overall majority.
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=38&LAB=44&LIB=6&UKIP=4&Green=1&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    Labour is facing the biggest crisis in its history as the leftwing pressure group Momentum tries to purge it of moderate MPs and councillors in a systematic takeover of the party, former deputy leader Roy Hattersley has warned.

    His dramatic intervention comes as details can be revealed of a vicious power struggle between moderates and leftwing forces in Momentum and the Unite union that now threatens to split the ruling national executive committee (NEC) and reopen party divisions.

    The row, over the selection of Labour’s parliamentary candidate in the marginal seat of Watford, has led local party officials to launch an official complaint to the NEC after they were ordered to place a Momentum-backed senior official of Unite on their final selection shortlist, days after having rejected him at interview.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/02/labour-faces-subversion-momentum-far-left-roy-hattersley-watford-byelection
  • Survation have also conducted a Scotland only poll.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 449
    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Where is the evidence for this? Survation's last poll ie before this supposed 'capitulation' still gave Labour a 6% lead.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,143

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Seems right to me.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    I see a load more perverts came out on the last thread.

    There wasn't any porn found on the DPM's computer. It was a fabrication by two bent coppers, disgracefully spread by the state broadcaster. The so called evidence was obtained, retained, and disseminated outside of the law by bent cops with a grudge, and we have no way of knowing how it came to be in the first place. We ought to ignore it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880

    I see a load more perverts came out on the last thread.

    There wasn't any porn found on the DPM's computer. It was a fabrication by two bent coppers, disgracefully spread by the state broadcaster. The so called evidence was obtained, retained, and disseminated outside of the law by bent cops with a grudge, and we have no way of knowing how it came to be in the first place. We ought to ignore it.

    No
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Survation have also conducted a Scotland only poll.

    Should I prepare my KLAXON? :p
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    That seems right to me. 3 nil to the EU27 on the first round of issues, doesn't bode well for the next step.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880
    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    2017 disproves your point
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    RobD said:

    Survation have also conducted a Scotland only poll.

    Should I prepare my KLAXON? :p
    Is it a SLAB red one?
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
  • stevefstevef Posts: 449

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    2017 disproves your point
    No it doesnt. Labour did not win the 2017 election. I said "Oppositions who go on to win..."
  • RobD said:

    Survation have also conducted a Scotland only poll.

    Should I prepare my KLAXON? :p
    I'm saying nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 2

    Labour is facing the biggest crisis in its history as the leftwing pressure group Momentum tries to purge it of moderate MPs and councillors in a systematic takeover of the party, former deputy leader Roy Hattersley has warned.

    His dramatic intervention comes as details can be revealed of a vicious power struggle between moderates and leftwing forces in Momentum and the Unite union that now threatens to split the ruling national executive committee (NEC) and reopen party divisions.

    The row, over the selection of Labour’s parliamentary candidate in the marginal seat of Watford, has led local party officials to launch an official complaint to the NEC after they were ordered to place a Momentum-backed senior official of Unite on their final selection shortlist, days after having rejected him at interview.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/02/labour-faces-subversion-momentum-far-left-roy-hattersley-watford-byelection

    Yes, Momentum has already ousted most of the moderate Haringey councillors for Labour before next May's general election and they will likely to do the same in a number of other Labour councils, their plan then is to start targeting moderate Labour MPs in their reselection meetings from next summer.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 1,143
    edited December 2
    RobD said:

    Survation have also conducted a Scotland only poll.

    Should I prepare my KLAXON? :p
    You must attach it to a sheepskin squeezebag.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
    Is there a Brexit right/wrong question?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152

    I see a load more perverts came out on the last thread.

    There wasn't any porn found on the DPM's computer. It was a fabrication by two bent coppers, disgracefully spread by the state broadcaster. The so called evidence was obtained, retained, and disseminated outside of the law by bent cops with a grudge, and we have no way of knowing how it came to be in the first place. We ought to ignore it.

    No
    Even though you're a pervert (defined earlier, for clarity as you weren't about, as someone enjoying this perversion of justice - in my mind far more perverted than anyone enjoying legal porn), I'll still feel sorry for you if you get set up by the police and I'd be just as angry at them for doing it to you.
  • Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation
  • stevefstevef Posts: 449

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    But there wont be a referendum tomorrow or the next day.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,370

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    Not close enough I'm afraid.

    I won't start worrying until it's at least 55-45 with different pollsters for a month.

    Even then, I doubt that would be enough for a U-turn.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,104
    Think this poll is an outlier, this was interesting though:

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    EXACTLY the same as Survation's final EU referendum poll in June 2016 which was also Leave 48% and Remain 52% and was wrong given Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Final-18-June-Mos-EU-poll-Tables-part-1.pdf
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,370

    Think this poll is an outlier, this was interesting though:

    The historic Tory lead with women has turned into a deficit. I think this mirrors the centre-right experience elsewhere, certainly in the US.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    Think this poll is an outlier, this was interesting though:

    That is quite striking. A Remain/Leave effect, or perhaps an austerity one?
  • TonyTony Posts: 117

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    Almost identical to their last referendum poll.
    51/49 to remain.

    No one is changing their minds. Leave would win again.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    stevef said:

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    But there wont be a referendum tomorrow or the next day.
    Exactly. The circumstances in which a second referendum takes place will be unsurvivable for Leave.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    Tony said:

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    Almost identical to their last referendum poll.
    51/49 to remain.

    No one is changing their minds. Leave would win again.
    Can you imagine Boris, Gove and Leadsom energetically fronting a second Leave campaign? No, I can’t either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    A senior aide to Jeremy Corbyn was plunged into a major expenses scandal last night.

    Lord Bassam, Labour’s Chief Whip in the Lords, admitted that he had been wrong to claim tens of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money after The Mail on Sunday investigated his travel expenses.

    He faces further questions over another £260,000 ‘second home’ allowance that he has pocketed since 2010 – despite not having one.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5140039/Jeremy-Corbyn-aid-embroiled-major-expenses-scandal.html
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880
    stevef said:

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    2017 disproves your point
    No it doesnt. Labour did not win the 2017 election. I said "Oppositions who go on to win..."
    LOL As chief Corbyn hater you missed a 25% to 2% event.

    If you really think Corbyn will blow an 8% lead you are letting your liathing of the Messiah blind you.

    How many times have you underestimated Jezza so far??
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880

    A senior aide to Jeremy Corbyn was plunged into a major expenses scandal last night.

    Lord Bassam, Labour’s Chief Whip in the Lords, admitted that he had been wrong to claim tens of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money after The Mail on Sunday investigated his travel expenses.

    He faces further questions over another £260,000 ‘second home’ allowance that he has pocketed since 2010 – despite not having one.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5140039/Jeremy-Corbyn-aid-embroiled-major-expenses-scandal.html

    Who??
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,104
    edited December 2
    @RoyalBlue What your theory re why the centre right seem to having issues in this regard?

    @foxinsoxuk I think it’s a bit of both. Women seem more inclined to be Remainers and perhaps we are more likely to be socially liberal. Working mums may well be feeling the effects of austerity in a way that their mothers aren’t (thus a lot older women still sticking with the Tories).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 2

    A senior aide to Jeremy Corbyn was plunged into a major expenses scandal last night.

    Lord Bassam, Labour’s Chief Whip in the Lords, admitted that he had been wrong to claim tens of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money after The Mail on Sunday investigated his travel expenses.

    He faces further questions over another £260,000 ‘second home’ allowance that he has pocketed since 2010 – despite not having one.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5140039/Jeremy-Corbyn-aid-embroiled-major-expenses-scandal.html

    Who??
    Maybe you know him as Steve Bassam, the founder of the Squatters Union which campaigned for the rights of squatters to occupy empty properties and improve the conditions of the squats.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    stevef said:

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    But there wont be a referendum tomorrow or the next day.
    No but there will certainly be pressure to hold one on May's withdrawal deal, assuming she manages to negotiate one.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
    Yep, and when it becomes clear that we have trampled all over the ECJ redline and that we are going to be forced to accept EU regulations to get a simple FTA, the majority will support No Deal. This question only asked about cash v trade - if it were that simply I would probably agree, but in fact that choice is not being offered. It is cash in return for nothing. As this becomes clear approaching the EU summit, watch the public turn on May for capitulating.

    Of course, if Boris and Gove do not resign we are probably looking at JRM being leader by mid next year.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880
    Goodnight all sweet dreams
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 2

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
    Current Conservative voters narrowly back Britain backing £50 billion to secure a trade deal by 42.3% to 41.5% (2017 Conservative voters back paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal by 43% to 40%.) Labour voters back paying £50 billion to secure a trade deal by 46% to 30%.

    LD voters back paying £50 billion to secure a trade deal by 53% to 27%, UKIP voters strongly back paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal by 76% to 14%.

    http://survation.com/labour-extends-polling-lead-8-points-conservatives/
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 82

    A senior aide to Jeremy Corbyn was plunged into a major expenses scandal last night.

    Lord Bassam, Labour’s Chief Whip in the Lords, admitted that he had been wrong to claim tens of thousands of pounds in taxpayers’ money after The Mail on Sunday investigated his travel expenses.

    He faces further questions over another £260,000 ‘second home’ allowance that he has pocketed since 2010 – despite not having one.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5140039/Jeremy-Corbyn-aid-embroiled-major-expenses-scandal.html

    A senior aide? Lord Bassam was boycotting Shadow Cabinet meetings until Corbyn stepped down as leader. Is there a single Corbynista in the Lords?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    edited December 2
    IanB2 said:

    Given the flow of news, this looks a credible poll series.

    The Mirror had a front page headline 'MINISTER FOR PORN' next to photo of a rather sheepish looking Damian Green....

    .....What's happened to the days when the same newspaper had to pay considerable damages to Liberace for a similar libel describing him as

    "…a winking, sniggering, snuggling, chromium-plated, scent-impregnated, luminous, quivering, giggling, fruit-flavoured, mincing, ice-covered heap of mother love".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,314

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
    Yep, and when it becomes clear that we have trampled all over the ECJ redline and that we are going to be forced to accept EU regulations to get a simple FTA, the majority will support No Deal. This question only asked about cash v trade - if it were that simply I would probably agree, but in fact that choice is not being offered. It is cash in return for nothing. As this becomes clear approaching the EU summit, watch the public turn on May for capitulating.

    Of course, if Boris and Gove do not resign we are probably looking at JRM being leader by mid next year.
    Let's start with the obvious: the EU wants a free trade deal. Once we leave the EU, we will be the largest destination for their products. Now, will we be as important to them as they are to us? No, obviously not. But that doesn't mean we're not very important. The EU would lose out from us not having an FTA with us, in both diminished demand for their products and from disrupted supply chains. Not only that, but do you notice all the bulldozers in Ireland and around Calais, setting up new customs inspections points? The EU is not planning on a No Deal scenario.

    Now this doesn't mean that the EU won't play silly buggers. Of course they will. It's in their interests to string things out as long as possible before agreeing. That's always been the case.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    Let me guess: George Osborne is the answer to the Tories' problems.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,105


    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%

    Yep, and when it becomes clear that we have trampled all over the ECJ redline and that we are going to be forced to accept EU regulations to get a simple FTA, the majority will support No Deal.
    Nope. Last year there was a 52-48 in favour of leaving the EU. There was no majority in favour of any particular aspect of leaving, except in your imagination.

    The country is ambivalent about Brexit and wants it to be over with as few fights as possible.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    So furious that they're going to vote for Corbyn? Somehow I don't think so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    AndyJS said:

    Let me guess: George Osborne is the answer to the Tories' problems.

    The biggest move away from the Tories has been from 2017 anti EU voters it seems, either to UKIP or Labour, so probably not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    Imagine the moon was made of cheese......
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 89
    “The final few steps to government”???

    Please can there be some minimum standards for posts.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
    Yep, and when it becomes clear that we have trampled all over the ECJ redline and that we are going to be forced to accept EU regulations to get a simple FTA, the majority will support No Deal. This question only asked about cash v trade - if it were that simply I would probably agree, but in fact that choice is not being offered. It is cash in return for nothing. As this becomes clear approaching the EU summit, watch the public turn on May for capitulating.

    Of course, if Boris and Gove do not resign we are probably looking at JRM being leader by mid next year.
    Let's start with the obvious: the EU wants a free trade deal.
    This is not at all obvious. In any case there is no risk to free trade since the UK cannot afford to walk away.
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 89

    Tony said:

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    Almost identical to their last referendum poll.
    51/49 to remain.

    No one is changing their minds. Leave would win again.
    Can you imagine Boris, Gove and Leadsom energetically fronting a second Leave campaign? No, I can’t either.
    And who would front the Remain campaign?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited December 3
    AndyJS said:

    Let me guess: George Osborne is the answer to the Tories' problems.

    Nope, there's only two men who can save the Tories now.

    Johnny Mercer or Jeremy Hunt.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 4,451
    Tonight's "Turning Points - Unscripted Reflections by Steve Richards"
    Part 1: the 1979 Election

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09dlr8z/turning-points-unscripted-reflections-by-steve-richards-1-1979-election

    Good night, all
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    rcs1000 said:



    Yep, and when it becomes clear that we have trampled all over the ECJ redline and that we are going to be forced to accept EU regulations to get a simple FTA, the majority will support No Deal. This question only asked about cash v trade - if it were that simply I would probably agree, but in fact that choice is not being offered. It is cash in return for nothing. As this becomes clear approaching the EU summit, watch the public turn on May for capitulating.

    Of course, if Boris and Gove do not resign we are probably looking at JRM being leader by mid next year.

    Let's start with the obvious: the EU wants a free trade deal. Once we leave the EU, we will be the largest destination for their products. Now, will we be as important to them as they are to us? No, obviously not. But that doesn't mean we're not very important. The EU would lose out from us not having an FTA with us, in both diminished demand for their products and from disrupted supply chains. Not only that, but do you notice all the bulldozers in Ireland and around Calais, setting up new customs inspections points? The EU is not planning on a No Deal scenario.

    Now this doesn't mean that the EU won't play silly buggers. Of course they will. It's in their interests to string things out as long as possible before agreeing. That's always been the case.

    Trade deals usually work on the basis of mutual interest. The EU want a trade deal on terms that favour them only. You are absolutely wrong if you think that the EU will agree a mutually beneficial deal. And now that the UK has made it clear they will capitulate they will simply continue to set terms and refuse to make concessions and will get their one-sided deal unless we get rid of May.

    We are not getting a frictionless EEA style deal, we are getting a CETA deal, and I for one am fine with that, as long as that deal is extended to include services. But the EU's plan is to offer us a CETA deal but to exclude services, to insist on regulatory harmony (see NI) and to insist on ECJ jurisdiction on trade. No FTA includes regulatory harmony (it is based on mutual equivalence), nor would it include submission to a foreign Court. The EU will be delighted with a CETA deal as it gives them tariff free access to the UK without conceding services in return.

    For all these reasons, no deal will be far preferable. But our Government is determined to sell us out.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    Some of these Jezuits wee their Euro flag panties when clear proof of their saviour's seditious past is legally publicised, but they don't bat an eyelid at bent coppers illegally setting up a guy on the other side, or the at state broadcaster facilitating the crime rather than reporting it to the police. If anyone's prepared for the bent coppers' evidence to be admissible in any investigation into the DPM, then they're up for opening a disastrous Pandora's box of what we then allow the police to get away with, with legal precedent. The bbc's involvement in this smells even worse than the bent cops'. They're just two dodgy individuals. The bbc is the state broadcaster which is supposed to be politically neutral, but has wittingly involved itself in a blatantly political stitch up. The heads of those responsible for this interview's release should roll.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 3
    tim80 said:

    Tony said:

    Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question ''Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'' How would you vote?

    Leave 48%

    Remain 52%

    @Survation

    Almost identical to their last referendum poll.
    51/49 to remain.

    No one is changing their minds. Leave would win again.
    Can you imagine Boris, Gove and Leadsom energetically fronting a second Leave campaign? No, I can’t either.
    And who would front the Remain campaign?
    Chuka Umunna, Emily Thornberry, Keir Starmer, Vince Cable and Anna Soubry (Corbyn and McDonnell would be neutral)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
    Yep, and when it becomes clear that we have trampled all over the ECJ redline and that we are going to be forced to accept EU regulations to get a simple FTA, the majority will support No Deal. This question only asked about cash v trade - if it were that simply I would probably agree, but in fact that choice is not being offered. It is cash in return for nothing. As this becomes clear approaching the EU summit, watch the public turn on May for capitulating.

    Of course, if Boris and Gove do not resign we are probably looking at JRM being leader by mid next year.
    Let's start with the obvious: the EU wants a free trade deal.
    This is not at all obvious. In any case there is no risk to free trade since the UK cannot afford to walk away.
    The devil is in the detail with any Free Trade Deal. What is included? Manufactured goods? Agriculture? Services? Freedom of Movement? Who adjudicates on disputes and sets standards?

    My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    Survation


    Q11. Which of these do you believe would be best for the UK economy?

    Britain paying £50bn to secure a trade deal - 40%

    Britain paying nothing and leaving with no trade deal - 35%
    Yep, and when it becomes clear that we have trampled all over the ECJ redline and that we are going to be forced to accept EU regulations to get a simple FTA, the majority will support No Deal. This question only asked about cash v trade - if it were that simply I would probably agree, but in fact that choice is not being offered. It is cash in return for nothing. As this becomes clear approaching the EU summit, watch the public turn on May for capitulating.

    Of course, if Boris and Gove do not resign we are probably looking at JRM being leader by mid next year.
    Let's start with the obvious: the EU wants a free trade deal.
    This is not at all obvious. In any case there is no risk to free trade since the UK cannot afford to walk away.
    The devil is in the detail with any Free Trade Deal. What is included? Manufactured goods? Agriculture? Services? Freedom of Movement? Who adjudicates on disputes and sets standards?

    My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.
    Manufactured goods and maybe agriculture, not most services nor freedom of movement as is the case with the EU's FTA with Canada.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,105

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    "The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU." When you say "the public" you mean Tory voters. Remember that half the population doesn't want to leave the EU at all, and are ignoring the hard Brexiters and Brexit media just like they did before the vote.

    You are correct about Tory voters though. Many on the Hard Brexit wing will probably sit on their hands rather than vote for May, Davis or Johnson. And what's left of the Tory Remainers are ebbing away day by day. Rebranding itself as the party of Brexit was one of the dumbest things the party's ever done.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    Would love it if @Cyclefree was Sue Gray, or if she got the job after.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09gz5nz
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    HYUFD said:


    My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.

    Manufactured goods and maybe agriculture, not most services nor freedom of movement as is the case with the EU's FTA with Canada.
    This is the whole point. FTAs do not involve following the other person's rules. That is part of the SM. FTAs involve accepting that the other nation's rules are acceptable (eg equivalent) to your own.

    If we agree an FTA where we follow the EUs rules, then we simply give away all the benefits of leaving the SM and the EU. Which is exactly what the EU aim to do.

    The UK HAS NO NEED of an FTA to cover goods. There is no mutual benefit in this case. Unless the FTA covers services, there is absolutely no benefit to the UK in signing it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 3
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP on 4%, more than double their June total, also shows the Tories need to squeeze back the Kippers.
    Yes, slightly surprising after May's better week according to most of us. Perhaps there are Tories disappointed over the compromises coming with the EU? But could be just random variation.
    The sellout that is coming into focus this week will put the Tories in freefall. The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU. The reason that her ratings have been falling in recent weeks is that the public, whoever they voted for, are not happy to see May capitulating to the EU on issue after issue.

    Funny that PB is full of posters (leavers and remainers) saying how great it is that we are 'compromising' with the EU whilst the public are furious. Gee, where did we see this before?
    "The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU." When you say "the public" you mean Tory voters. Remember that half the population doesn't want to leave the EU at all, and are ignoring the hard Brexiters and Brexit media just like they did before the vote.

    You are correct about Tory voters though. Many on the Hard Brexit wing will probably sit on their hands rather than vote for May, Davis or Johnson. And what's left of the Tory Remainers are ebbing away day by day. Rebranding itself as the party of Brexit was one of the dumbest things the party's ever done.

    Yet at the last general election post Brexit the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983 and even on this Survation are still polling as high as Cameron got in 2015 in voteshare terms.

    It was the British people who voted for Brexit, if anything the Tory losses since June have been mainly of Leavers to UKIP and Labour as they now see the Tories as not pro Brexit enough, hence the detail of the Survation poll shows June Tory voters narrowly oppose paying the EU £50 billion for a FTA as I posted earlier but current Tory voters narrowly support paying the EU £50 billion for a trade deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 3

    HYUFD said:


    My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.

    Manufactured goods and maybe agriculture, not most services nor freedom of movement as is the case with the EU's FTA with Canada.
    This is the whole point. FTAs do not involve following the other person's rules. That is part of the SM. FTAs involve accepting that the other nation's rules are acceptable (eg equivalent) to your own.

    If we agree an FTA where we follow the EUs rules, then we simply give away all the benefits of leaving the SM and the EU. Which is exactly what the EU aim to do.

    The UK HAS NO NEED of an FTA to cover goods. There is no mutual benefit in this case. Unless the FTA covers services, there is absolutely no benefit to the UK in signing it.
    We aren't, as crucially a FTA does not involve free movement, which would not be the case if we stayed in the SM or the EU. For workers in manufacturing, especially in Leave heartlands in the North and Midlands, a FTA to cover goods is important, for Remain voters working in the City rather less so if it still involves leaving the single market.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,376
    Nothing in the Sunday papers about whether sufficient deal will be done on Irish border to persuade EU to start trade talks?

    Would have thought that would be the key issue of the day.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,477
    I expect circa 20 Labour gains from the SNP next time. An 8% lead would be likely to give Labour a majority of 20 - 30 seats .
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    Dadge said:

    <

    "The public will never stand for the shameful capitulation to the EU." When you say "the public" you mean Tory voters. Remember that half the population doesn't want to leave the EU at all, and are ignoring the hard Brexiters and Brexit media just like they did before the vote.

    You are correct about Tory voters though. Many on the Hard Brexit wing will probably sit on their hands rather than vote for May, Davis or Johnson. And what's left of the Tory Remainers are ebbing away day by day. Rebranding itself as the party of Brexit was one of the dumbest things the party's ever done.

    No I don't, I mean the public. Half of those who voted remain accept we should leave the EU anyway, and even of the rest a significant number are genuine, patriotic Brits who will simply not accept their nation being humiliated for no reason than the fact that our leaders are cowards and liars.

    Most Labour voters are very patriotic and, of course, the 52% was not made up of just Tories.

    The polling is clearly showing that the public as a whole think the EU are being unreasonable and think May is being weak for backing down. People may accept paying cash for a trade deal, but that is not what is being agreed, nor is it the extent of the sellout.

    The backlash against the Brexit sellout will be national and may very well sweep May out of No 10 in very short order.

    If, on the other hand, May does walk away from negotiations in December (eg her choice) the Tories will be 10% ahead by the New Year.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.

    Manufactured goods and maybe agriculture, not most services nor freedom of movement as is the case with the EU's FTA with Canada.
    This is the whole point. FTAs do not involve following the other person's rules. That is part of the SM. FTAs involve accepting that the other nation's rules are acceptable (eg equivalent) to your own.

    If we agree an FTA where we follow the EUs rules, then we simply give away all the benefits of leaving the SM and the EU. Which is exactly what the EU aim to do.

    The UK HAS NO NEED of an FTA to cover goods. There is no mutual benefit in this case. Unless the FTA covers services, there is absolutely no benefit to the UK in signing it.
    We aren't, as crucially a FTA does not involve free movement, which would not be the case if we stayed in the SM or the EU. For workers in manufacturing, especially in Leave heartlands in the North and Midlands, a FTA to cover goods is important, for Remain voters working in the City rather less so if it still involves leaving the single market.
    Do you seriously think that the UK will not be required to make concessions on immigration as part of any FTA? The EU will ask for whatever they want as long as they realise that May will never walk away.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    Does anyone else think that the proposals for further integration of the EU, until it can't integrate any further, are speculative and untested?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    justin124 said:

    I expect circa 20 Labour gains from the SNP next time. An 8% lead would be likely to give Labour a majority of 20 - 30 seats .

    Except the SNP are unchanged from June in this Survation poll in Scotland and the last full Scottish Westminster poll had Labour making no further inroads into the SNP's lead from the general election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 3

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.

    Manufactured goods and maybe agriculture, not most services nor freedom of movement as is the case with the EU's FTA with Canada.
    This is the whole point. FTAs do not involve following the other person's rules. That is part of the SM. FTAs involve accepting that the other nation's rules are acceptable (eg equivalent) to your own.

    If we agree an FTA where we follow the EUs rules, then we simply give away all the benefits of leaving the SM and the EU. Which is exactly what the EU aim to do.

    The UK HAS NO NEED of an FTA to cover goods. There is no mutual benefit in this case. Unless the FTA covers services, there is absolutely no benefit to the UK in signing it.
    We aren't, as crucially a FTA does not involve free movement, which would not be the case if we stayed in the SM or the EU. For workers in manufacturing, especially in Leave heartlands in the North and Midlands, a FTA to cover goods is important, for Remain voters working in the City rather less so if it still involves leaving the single market.
    Do you seriously think that the UK will not be required to make concessions on immigration as part of any FTA? The EU will ask for whatever they want as long as they realise that May will never walk away.
    On free movement? No (albeit we have already had to make concessions on EU citizens' rights in the UK to move towards FTA talks). We have made clear we are leaving the single market to end it and the EU have said as a consequence a Canada-style FTA is the maximum they are prepared to offer us.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,477
    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    But 1996 and 2009 were both 4 years into those Parliaments - indeed well past 'midterm'. At present we are approaching the 6 month point of this Parliament - hardly comparing 'like with like'.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,477
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I expect circa 20 Labour gains from the SNP next time. An 8% lead would be likely to give Labour a majority of 20 - 30 seats .

    Except the SNP are unchanged from June in this Survation poll in Scotland and the last full Scottish Westminster poll had Labour making no further inroads into the SNP's lead from the general election.
    Maybe but pollsters have been overstating SNP support for several years now! I just don't believe it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 3
    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    But 1996 and 2009 were both 4 years into those Parliaments - indeed well past 'midterm'. At present we are approaching the 6 month point of this Parliament - hardly comparing 'like with like'.
    By late 1979 Labour already had a clear lead over Thatcher's Tories and by late 1992 Smith also had a clear lead over Major after Black Wednesday, by December 2005 new Tory leader David Cameron also opened up a small lead over Blair.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,477
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    But 1996 and 2009 were both 4 years into those Parliaments - indeed well past 'midterm'. At present we are approaching the 6 month point of this Parliament - hardly comparing 'like with like'.
    By late 1979 Labour already had a clear lead over Thatcher's Tories and by late 1992 Smith also had a clear lead over Major after Black Wednesday, by December 2005 new Tory leader David Cameron also opened up a small lead over Blair.
    That is a different point. A lead of 8% - if true - is a clear lead!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    But 1996 and 2009 were both 4 years into those Parliaments - indeed well past 'midterm'. At present we are approaching the 6 month point of this Parliament - hardly comparing 'like with like'.
    By late 1979 Labour already had a clear lead over Thatcher's Tories and by late 1992 Smith also had a clear lead over Major after Black Wednesday, by December 2005 new Tory leader David Cameron also opened up a small lead over Blair.
    That is a different point. A lead of 8% - if true - is a clear lead!
    A lead which would give Labour a smaller majority even than Cameron got in 2015 and no majority at all if they did not win anymore seats from the SNP.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,477
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    But 1996 and 2009 were both 4 years into those Parliaments - indeed well past 'midterm'. At present we are approaching the 6 month point of this Parliament - hardly comparing 'like with like'.
    By late 1979 Labour already had a clear lead over Thatcher's Tories and by late 1992 Smith also had a clear lead over Major after Black Wednesday, by December 2005 new Tory leader David Cameron also opened up a small lead over Blair.
    That is a different point. A lead of 8% - if true - is a clear lead!
    A lead which would give Labour a smaller majority even than Cameron got in 2015 and no majority at all if they did not win anymore seats from the SNP.
    I simply do not believe that assumption would hold - as reflected in last week's Rutherglen by election.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    edited December 3
    In Germany the Social Democrats are on about 20% in the polls, in the UK Labour are on 40%+. That's an amazing gap between two parties that always used to attract similar levels of support in the past.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    But 1996 and 2009 were both 4 years into those Parliaments - indeed well past 'midterm'. At present we are approaching the 6 month point of this Parliament - hardly comparing 'like with like'.
    By late 1979 Labour already had a clear lead over Thatcher's Tories and by late 1992 Smith also had a clear lead over Major after Black Wednesday, by December 2005 new Tory leader David Cameron also opened up a small lead over Blair.
    That is a different point. A lead of 8% - if true - is a clear lead!
    A lead which would give Labour a smaller majority even than Cameron got in 2015 and no majority at all if they did not win anymore seats from the SNP.
    I simply do not believe that assumption would hold - as reflected in last week's Rutherglen by election.
    Last week Labour also lost a seat to the LDs on a huge swing if you want to talk council by elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 3
    AndyJS said:

    In Germany the Social Democrats are on about 20% in the polls, in the UK Labour are on 40%+. That's an amazing gap between two parties that always used to attract similar levels of support in the past.

    The SPD have to face Die Linke, the Greens and the AfD, the UK has no Die Linke, Corbyn has squeezed the Greens and UKIP are a shadow of their pre Brexit self.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,477
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    But oppositions who go on to win never do as well in real general elections as they are polling between elections. Cameron's Tories had an 18 point lead in 2009 for example, but only had a 7 point lead in the 2010 election. Blair was ahead by 25 points in 1996 but only won by 13 points in 1997.
    Labour needs to be much much further ahead to be the likely winner of the 2022 election. It needs to be further ahead than Milband who in 2012 had a 12 point lead and Kinnock who had a 11 point lead in 1986.

    But 1996 and 2009 were both 4 years into those Parliaments - indeed well past 'midterm'. At present we are approaching the 6 month point of this Parliament - hardly comparing 'like with like'.
    By late 1979 Labour already had a clear lead over Thatcher's Tories and by late 1992 Smith also had a clear lead over Major after Black Wednesday, by December 2005 new Tory leader David Cameron also opened up a small lead over Blair.
    That is a different point. A lead of 8% - if true - is a clear lead!
    A lead which would give Labour a smaller majority even than Cameron got in 2015 and no majority at all if they did not win anymore seats from the SNP.
    I simply do not believe that assumption would hold - as reflected in last week's Rutherglen by election.
    Last week Labour also lost a seat to the LDs on a huge swing if you want to talk council by elections.
    No - the dynamics are totally different. We all know how obsessed the LDs are with local by elections and the disproprtionate effort applied to them compared with other parties. The Rutherglen election was high profile between Labour and the SNP. Both made a great effort!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    In Germany the Social Democrats are on about 20% in the polls, in the UK Labour are on 40%+. That's an amazing gap between two parties that always used to attract similar levels of support in the past.

    The SPD have to face Die Linke, the Greens and the AfD, the UK has no Die Linke, Corbyn has squeezed the Greens and UKIP are a shadow of their pre Brexit self.
    Good points, although I'm still not sure why Corbyn is proving quite as attractive as he is to UK voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 3
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    In Germany the Social Democrats are on about 20% in the polls, in the UK Labour are on 40%+. That's an amazing gap between two parties that always used to attract similar levels of support in the past.

    The SPD have to face Die Linke, the Greens and the AfD, the UK has no Die Linke, Corbyn has squeezed the Greens and UKIP are a shadow of their pre Brexit self.
    Good points, although I'm still not sure why Corbyn is proving quite as attractive as he is to UK voters.
    Weariness with austerity and stagnant wages. At the moment the western left are either doing well as populist leftists eg Corbyn, Sanders, Melenchon, Ardern and Tsipras and Podemos in opposition to austerity and the big corporations or as ultra centrist liberals like Macron and Trudeau, social democrats like the SPD or the mildly centre left parties like the French and Spanish socialists or the Dutch Labor Party are getting squeezed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    edited December 3
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Let me guess: George Osborne is the answer to the Tories' problems.

    The biggest move away from the Tories has been from 2017 anti EU voters it seems, either to UKIP or Labour, so probably not.
    My comment was slightly tongue in cheek.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    This poll is another small piece of evidence that people are slowly turning away from Brexit, as the consequences start to become real.

    Corbyn doesn't have to do anything; just sit there and let people watch the Tories steer us toward the economic cliff.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 25,390
    I see Toxic TSE spreading FAKE NEWS! Sad!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030

    HYUFD said:


    My guess is that the EU will be happy for tarrif free access for goods as long as we follow their rules.

    Manufactured goods and maybe agriculture, not most services nor freedom of movement as is the case with the EU's FTA with Canada.
    This is the whole point. FTAs do not involve following the other person's rules. That is part of the SM. FTAs involve accepting that the other nation's rules are acceptable (eg equivalent) to your own.

    If we agree an FTA where we follow the EUs rules, then we simply give away all the benefits of leaving the SM and the EU. Which is exactly what the EU aim to do.

    The UK HAS NO NEED of an FTA to cover goods. There is no mutual benefit in this case. Unless the FTA covers services, there is absolutely no benefit to the UK in signing it.
    And what will the British regulatory standards be in future?
    The EU does not know (and probably neither do we). Given the likes of Hammond have talked openly about undercutting them...
    As the Commission have said - we are looking at how to manage a divergence of rules - which is a different challenge.

    The Dan Hannan talk of a bonfire of red tape is I suspect very unhelpful.
    What Gove is doing to maintain standards is probably much better to reassure our trading partners.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    We are likely to get a free trade agreement on goods, with some concessions around free movement, as our fruit and vegetables won't pick themselves. We are very unlikely to get a free trade agreement on services, and will have to buy any concessions on services with commitments to make ongoing payments to the EU badged as contributions to east Europe reconstruction.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    IanB2 said:

    This poll is another small piece of evidence that people are slowly turning away from Brexit, as the consequences start to become real.

    Corbyn doesn't have to do anything; just sit there and let people watch the Tories steer us toward the economic cliff.

    No it isn't .

    With the exception of one poll, Survation showed consistent Remain leads in the months leading up to the Brexit vote. This is effectively no change all.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,157

    IanB2 said:

    This poll is another small piece of evidence that people are slowly turning away from Brexit, as the consequences start to become real.

    Corbyn doesn't have to do anything; just sit there and let people watch the Tories steer us toward the economic cliff.

    No it isn't .

    With the exception of one poll, Survation showed consistent Remain leads in the months leading up to the Brexit vote. This is effectively no change all.
    Agreed. For now.
This discussion has been closed.