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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iff this is true then the chances of a 2018 general election h

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iff this is true then the chances of a 2018 general election have increased, the DUP will bring down Mrs May’s government

BREAKING: UK will concede that there will be no "regulatory divergence" on the island of Ireland on the single market and customs union, acc to a draft text seen by @rtenews

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    We certainly live in interesting times.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144
    It's probably not true, just setting expectations really low.
  • MaxPB said:

    It's probably not true, just setting expectations really low.

    That's what people said about the reports of a 50 billion Euro divorce bill.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
    Hasn’t worn well, has it?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
    Did you not notice my use of IFF as the first word of the headline?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    Scott_P said:

    Told #DUP on board

    That means the DUP will now have to argue for the UK as a whole to stay in the single market and customs union unless they want de facto reunification.

    Brexit just lost some of its few remaining allies.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    MaxPB said:

    It's probably not true, just setting expectations really low.

    That's what people said about the reports of a 50 billion Euro divorce bill.
    Fair enough, but if the twit is true and the DUP are on board, it's probably not true. I also remember that the expectations were set at €100bn when negotiations started. €50bn is, in that context, a win.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
    Any header that begins "Iff" (sic) is surely subject to revision anyway ?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,342
    Does Brexit means Brexit really apply anymore ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    Scott_P said:

    Told #DUP on board

    That means the DUP will now have to argue for the UK as a whole to stay in the single market and customs union unless they want de facto reunification.

    Brexit just lost some of its few remaining allies.
    Or the report is wrong.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited December 4
    Odds on a 2018 general election already shifting on Ladbrokes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    We'll have to wait and see, but according to Faisal Islam the draft text on Ireland agrees “full alignment” within N. Ireland on those parts of single market and customs union that might otherwise lead to hard border.... That's a rather important qualification.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 4
    In some respects a PM Corbyn leading a minority government or with a tiny majority after a 2018 general election as all the polls suggest is likely would be ideal for the Tories, Corbyn then has to negotiate the final Brexit deal and either annoy his big city middle class Remain voters or his working class industrial town Leave voters.
  • Scott_P said:
    Wasn't that one of Mrs May's red lines? Can't see many people being happy with that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    edited December 4
    Cressida Dick comments on Green porn...
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/04/met-chief-cressida-dick-condemns-former-officers-over-damian-green-claims

    “I’ve said before I don’t want to give a running commentary on this matter. It’s clearly sensitive, it’s controversial and there is a Cabinet Office inquiry running in parallel, as you know, but today, I think it is appropriate that I say that what they appear to have done seems to me to be quite wrong.”
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Hmm, all speculation so far. Let's give the PM the benefit of the doubt until an actual announcement.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 59,709
    edited December 4
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
    Any header that begins "Iff" (sic) is surely subject to revision anyway ?
    No need for a (sic), Iff is a proper word in the OED, from mathematics, means 'If, and only if'
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?

    The former allows for some deviation.
  • Scott_P said:
    It is a disgrace, cannot believe any government agreed to it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339

    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?

    The former leaves room for equivalency within UK regulation, the latter doesn't.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Alex Hales; no further police action or indeed interest.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Nigelb said:

    Cressida Dick comments on Green porn...
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/04/met-chief-cressida-dick-condemns-former-officers-over-damian-green-claims

    “I’ve said before I don’t want to give a running commentary on this matter. It’s clearly sensitive, it’s controversial and there is a Cabinet Office inquiry running in parallel, as you know, but today, I think it is appropriate that I say that what they appear to have done seems to me to be quite wrong.”

    "....I believe that what this officer, and indeed other retired officers, appears to have done is wrong and my professional standards department will be reviewing what has happened in relation to how information has been handled and if any offences are disclosed we will investigate them.”

    Hmmm. Met coppers investigating ex-Met coppers? What could possibly go wrong.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    Scott_P said:
    It is a disgrace, cannot believe any government agreed to it.
    It's something that the courts will have to resolve after Brexit, tbh. If it is just in place for a transition period it's not a big deal. If it is indefinite then it is a very big problem, at least if the SC isn't given the same rights over British nationals living in the EU.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Nigelb said:

    Cressida Dick comments on Green porn...
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/04/met-chief-cressida-dick-condemns-former-officers-over-damian-green-claims

    “I’ve said before I don’t want to give a running commentary on this matter. It’s clearly sensitive, it’s controversial and there is a Cabinet Office inquiry running in parallel, as you know, but today, I think it is appropriate that I say that what they appear to have done seems to me to be quite wrong.”

    Good on her for saying that. Mr Lewis now needs to be charged with possession of the stolen property he sold to a newspaper.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,254
    edited December 4
    Arlene Foster yesterday said " A sensible Brexit will involve a comprehensive trade and customs agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
    What is not sensible is proposing isolating Northern Ireland from its largest market [rUK]."


    RTE reports "According to one version of EU-UK draft: “In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market + customs union which, now or in the future, support North South cooperation +protection of the GFA.”"

    The circle can be squared and a 2018 GE avoided if the UK agrees to remain in THE customs union. It wouldn't betray the Leavers as most Leavers don't know what a customs union is.
    The only downside is that Liam Fox loses his job.

    I know the UK government is trying to negotiate A customs union that allows us to negotiate our own FTAs. Good luck with that one! However, "in the absence of agreed solutions" NI stays in THE customs Union, and the DUP will ensure the UK stays in THE customs union for a very long transition period that extends beyond the next GE.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Is "Iff" the really, really unlikely-to-come-to-pass version of "If"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    edited December 4

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
    Any header that begins "Iff" (sic) is surely subject to revision anyway ?
    No need for a (sic), Iff is a proper word in the OED, from mathematics, means 'If, and only if'
    It might be a 'proper word', but in the context of the header it would make no sense. whatsoever. And anyway, the headline doesn't really make sense* even without the typo/maths term.

    *absent some revision to the punctuation.
  • Is "Iff" the really, really unlikely-to-come-to-pass version of "If"?

    'If, and only if'
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    Is "Iff" the really, really unlikely-to-come-to-pass version of "If"?

    Iff off!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,000
    Realistically only something acceptable to the DUP is going to be agreed. Even David Davis isn't incompetent enough to make a deal over NI and then think, "Hmmm...wonder what the DUP think"
  • Spare a thought for anyone reading/studying for a European Law degree/qualification right now.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,221

    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?

    Not everything is currently regulatory aligned. "No regulatory divergence" would mean new regulatory convergences post Brexit.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
    Did you not notice my use of IFF as the first word of the headline?
    Is that like 'if' but fortissimo?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    edited December 4
    Barnesian said:

    The circle can be squared and a 2018 GE avoided if the UK agrees to remain in THE customs union. It wouldn't betray the Leavers as most Leavers don't know what a customs union is.
    The only downside is that Liam Fox loses his job.

    I know the UK government is trying to negotiate A customs union that allows us to negotiate our own FTAs. Good luck with that one! However, "in the absence of agreed solutions" NI stays in THE customs Union, and the DUP will ensure the UK stays in THE customs union for a very long transition period that extends beyond the next GE.

    This forgotten document could soon become crucial to the Brexit negotiations:

    http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00512073.pdf
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    Spare a thought for anyone reading/studying for a European Law degree/qualification right now.

    Should have changed courses in 2016!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    MaxPB said:

    Is "Iff" the really, really unlikely-to-come-to-pass version of "If"?

    Iff off!
    Chances of Boris becoming PM? Iff waff....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339

    Even David Davis isn't incompetent enough to make a deal over NI and then think, "Hmmm...wonder what the DUP think"

    Hold that thought...

    @SkyNewsBreak: Sky News understands the UK Government is confident the DUP will support a deal on a post-Brexit Irish border by the end of the day
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @davidallengreen: Honest referendum question

    "Do you want the United Kingdom to have no regulatory divergence from the European Union or to have regulatory alignment with the European Union?"
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    edited December 4
    Yorkcity said:

    Does Brexit means Brexit really apply anymore ?

    At the rate we're going I reckon Brexit will be cancelled by Christmas.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    It's -rather fun reading the panicked efforts of those who want Brexit reversed greet the possibility of a deal that can move the negotiations forward. As we used to say about closet queens when I was young ' your beads are showing dears ' :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @SMcC_TheDetail: The DUP's Sammy Wilson on @BBCTalkback comes out against regulatory alignment on island of Ireland in draft #Brexit deal and says it would be vetoed at Stormont (presumably by DUP), even though there is no Stormont. Declines to speculate on deal with UK Govt.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 449
    There would only be a prime minister Corbyn if he won a general election. The Fixed Term Parliament Act would only allow Corbyn to take over after May lost a vote of confidence if he himself had the numbers to command a majority -which he has not. May -or another Tory would therefore remain PM until after the election.
    I do not beleieve that Corbyn would be prime minister even after a 2018 election -which itself is unlikely to happen. The phrophecies of a Corbyn premiership are as self denying as those of a May landslide -the phrophecies themselves decide the opposite.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    edited December 4
    Oh and another good PMI today on construction after the excellent one for Manufacturing last week and the £ rising against both the $ and the €. What larks!
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,221
    edited December 4
    Sean_F said:

    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.

    There is likely to be a new bilateral customs union between the UK and the EU - without freedom of movement a la Canada and the EU.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,254
    Sean_F said:

    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.

    It is a nonsense, but it is also the least worst option if we leave the EU.
  • Sean_F said:

    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.

    It is the worst of all worlds.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    Sean_F said:

    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.

    There is likely to be a new bilateral customs union between the UK and the EU - without freedom of movement a la Canada and the EU.
    You seem to have adopted HYUFD's definition of 'likely'.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 616
    The wording "in the absence of agreed solutions" suggests kicking the can down the road on regulatory divergence until the border control regime can be agreed, rather than never, never, never.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    Pro_Rata said:

    The wording "in the absence of agreed solutions" suggests kicking the can down the road on regulatory divergence until the border control regime can be agreed, rather than never, never, never.

    But it does mean that any Tory now calling for 'no deal' is effectively calling for a united Ireland.

    May is playing a blinder.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: BREAK; Senior govt source tells me it still “too close to call” re Ireland border but draft wording in and govt “quietly confident it will be resolved” by close of play. Told #DUP on board

    Thread header in tatters already :D ?
    Did you not notice my use of IFF as the first word of the headline?
    ∴ ∵ ⇒ ⇐

  • I can here Arlene Forster screaming from here
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872

    Pro_Rata said:

    The wording "in the absence of agreed solutions" suggests kicking the can down the road on regulatory divergence until the border control regime can be agreed, rather than never, never, never.

    But it does mean that any Tory now calling for 'no deal' is effectively calling for a united Ireland.

    May is playing a blinder.
    We feel your pain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 570
    MaxPB said:

    Fair enough, but if the twit is true and the DUP are on board, it's probably not true. I also remember that the expectations were set at €100bn when negotiations started. €50bn is, in that context, a win.

    €30bn divorce bill iirc, plus the already offered €20bn for a (2 year) transition.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    A full boolean breakdown of the final EU-UK agreement should be done. We can start with the Irish border.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828

    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?

    Not everything is currently regulatory aligned. "No regulatory divergence" would mean new regulatory convergences post Brexit.
    Fair enough. Thanks.

    Seems a pretty trivial point on which the talks stuck / became unstuck.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144
    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    Because bankers aren't going to blow up innocent people like the IRA.
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    Because bankers aren't going to blow up innocent people like the IRA.
    Oh I don't know. Have you ever the seen reaction of a banker when they get told their bonus isn't getting paid?
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    Nearly all the voices desperately criticising the deal are from those who want Brexit reversed. They are seeking to drive the government and the DUP apart.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    And Edinburgh
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @JamieRoss7: The SNP is scenting blood over reports that N Ireland may be able to retain elements of single market membership. One MP says it's now "impossible" for the UK government to deny the same for Scotland.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    Because bankers aren't going to blow up innocent people like the IRA.
    Oh I don't know. Have you ever the seen reaction of a banker when they get told their bonus isn't getting paid?
    Indeed, and did you see the reaction when Carney suggested the first EU regulation to be dumped would be the 200% bonus cap?

    The clamour for regulatory alignment from the City isn't going to be as loud as people expect, you should know that.

    It's been a fun year or so watching people who have been so opposed to the financial services sector suddenly leap to our defence.
  • Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    And Edinburgh
    We're talking about real financial cities, not diddy ones.

    Plus, RBS and HBOS, the banks that doomed us in 2008, all headquartered in Edinburgh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    EC1 can get special treatment after
    suffering 400 years of oppression/
    starting to blow people up.

    (Delete as pr political preference)
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 1,892
    felix said:

    Oh and another good PMI today on construction after the excellent one for Manufacturing last week and the £ rising against both the $ and the €. What larks!

    The Construction PMI was poor; as the key findings said:

    "- Residential work drives modest construction rebound in November

    - Commercial and civil engineering activity continue to decline"


    Manufacturing did well because of the boom in Europe. The danger of Brexit is that it hits capital investment in the UK and further damages long term productivity. A drop in commercial and civil engineering construction activity indicates it is.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    edited December 4
    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: The SNP is scenting blood over reports that N Ireland may be able to retain elements of single market membership. One MP says it's now "impossible" for the UK government to deny the same for Scotland.

    Scott-P in overdrive searching for any ally against the deal.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    Because bankers aren't going to blow up innocent people like the IRA.
    Oh I don't know. Have you ever the seen reaction of a banker when they get told their bonus isn't getting paid?
    Indeed, and did you see the reaction when Carney suggested the first EU regulation to be dumped would be the 200% bonus cap?

    The clamour for regulatory alignment from the City isn't going to be as loud as people expect, you should know that.

    It's been a fun year or so watching people who have been so opposed to the financial services sector suddenly leap to our defence.
    The fun thing for me this year is seeing people with no knowledge of The City or the financial services industry acting like they are experts on it.

    PB is lucky that we've got quite so many genuine experts on it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: The SNP is scenting blood over reports that N Ireland may be able to retain elements of single market membership. One MP says it's now "impossible" for the UK government to deny the same for Scotland.

    Which of the EU27 is batting for Scotland ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 6,127
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    EC1 can get special treatment after
    suffering 400 years of oppression/
    starting to blow people up.

    (Delete as pr political preference)
    No-one in London seriously believes London can be an island.

    What they will of course be asking is that the single market in financial services, in general, be maintained.

    Or rather, obtained, because it doesn't exist yet.

    And the legal profession is a long way off...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073

    Sean_F said:

    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.

    There is likely to be a new bilateral customs union between the UK and the EU - without freedom of movement a la Canada and the EU.
    A FTA which ends free movement is what most voters want, minus diehard Remainers and diehard Leavers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    JonathanD said:

    felix said:

    Oh and another good PMI today on construction after the excellent one for Manufacturing last week and the £ rising against both the $ and the €. What larks!

    The Construction PMI was poor; as the key findings said:

    "- Residential work drives modest construction rebound in November

    - Commercial and civil engineering activity continue to decline"


    Manufacturing did well because of the boom in Europe. The danger of Brexit is that it hits capital investment in the UK and further damages long term productivity. A drop in commercial and civil engineering construction activity indicates it is.
    Both figures were well ahead of forecasts. Get a life.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    EC1 can get special treatment after
    suffering 400 years of oppression/
    starting to blow people up.

    (Delete as pr political preference)
    How about as the biggest contributor to the Exchequer.

    The plebs that voted Leave need the financial services sector to pay for their tax credits.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @RichardJMurphy: The City of London will now be looking at the Northern Ireland EU deal and be asking ‘Why can they have regulatory alignment but we have to leave the Single Market?’. Expect a massive kick back from EC1.

    Because bankers aren't going to blow up innocent people like the IRA.
    Oh I don't know. Have you ever the seen reaction of a banker when they get told their bonus isn't getting paid?
    Indeed, and did you see the reaction when Carney suggested the first EU regulation to be dumped would be the 200% bonus cap?

    Didn't see that one on the side of a bus :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    JonathanD said:

    felix said:

    Oh and another good PMI today on construction after the excellent one for Manufacturing last week and the £ rising against both the $ and the €. What larks!

    The Construction PMI was poor; as the key findings said:

    "- Residential work drives modest construction rebound in November

    - Commercial and civil engineering activity continue to decline"


    Manufacturing did well because of the boom in Europe. The danger of Brexit is that it hits capital investment in the UK and further damages long term productivity. A drop in commercial and civil engineering construction activity indicates it is.
    Every single lining has a cloud.

  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: The SNP is scenting blood over reports that N Ireland may be able to retain elements of single market membership. One MP says it's now "impossible" for the UK government to deny the same for Scotland.

    Which of the EU27 is batting for Scotland ?
    Catalonia? :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: The SNP is scenting blood over reports that N Ireland may be able to retain elements of single market membership. One MP says it's now "impossible" for the UK government to deny the same for Scotland.

    Which of the EU27 is batting for Scotland ?
    Catalonia? :)
    Venice, Tyrol, perhaps the Basque region too.

    I am sure Rajoy and Gentiloni will, as those regions form part of their territory make every effort for Scotland.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @hugorifkind: Hope somebody is keeping a list of all the bits of the UK that want. "regulatory alignment" with the EU. So far I've got Northern Ireland, Scotland, London, farms, banks, universities, healthcare, Grimsby and Cornwall.

    @hugorifkind: Late additions: cars, energy, Gibraltar, the arts and Nigel Farage's financial advisor.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    Scott_P said:

    @hugorifkind: Hope somebody is keeping a list of all the bits of the UK that want. "regulatory alignment" with the EU. So far I've got Northern Ireland, Scotland, London, farms, banks, universities, healthcare, Grimsby and Cornwall.

    @hugorifkind: Late additions: cars, energy, Gibraltar, the arts and Nigel Farage's financial advisor.

    Stop embarrassing yourself. Go and have a coffee.
  • Can someone do me a favour, can anyone do a quick summary of which parties hold the border seats in Northern Ireland?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    edited December 4

    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?

    [Different from other responses here]. I think "continued regulatory alignment" requires positive action. So if the EU changes its law or regulation, the UK would commit to changing its law and regulation in lockstep. "No regulatory divergence" might only be a commitment not to change its law and regulation
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    A lot hinges on how the DUP react to what seems to have been agreed. Initial signs are unpromising, but the government seems to think it has this covered.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 162
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.

    There is likely to be a new bilateral customs union between the UK and the EU - without freedom of movement a la Canada and the EU.
    A FTA which ends free movement is what most voters want, minus diehard Remainers and diehard Leavers.
    Welcome to the EEA HYUFD. Oh, that doesn't prevent free movement? Sorry Sir, this is the best we can offer you. As this WILL be the best we can get when will someone press the rewind button?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    If that Irish border concession is true, as reported, then I would very reluctantly now support No Deal. I would spend the next 12 months preparing in every possible way for it.

    The UK cannot accept a cleaving up of its territory.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    FF43 said:

    I'm probably being thick here but how is "continued regulatory alignment" any different from "no regulatory divergence"?

    [Different from other responses here]. I think "continued regulatory alignment" requires positive action. So if the EU changes its law or regulation, the UK would commit to changing its law and regulation in lockstep. "No regulatory divergence" would only be a commitment not to change its law and regulation
    I think it's just to correct bad drafting rather than a change in intended meaning. The current status quo would fail the "no regulatory divergence" test.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    Can someone do me a favour, can anyone do a quick summary of which parties hold the border seats in Northern Ireland?

    Sinn Fein holds all of the Westminster seats.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    If that Irish border concession is true, as reported, then I would very reluctantly now support No Deal. I would spend the next 12 months preparing in every possible way for it.

    The UK cannot accept a cleaving up of its territory.

    As I pointed out before, if the Irish border concession is true, it only takes effect as a result of no deal. I'm afraid the no dealers have been snookered.
  • Can someone do me a favour, can anyone do a quick summary of which parties hold the border seats in Northern Ireland?

    Sinn Fein holds all of the Westminster seats.
    Cheers, I had a hunch that was the case.

    So Northern Ireland voted to Remain, and SF hold the border seats, might we consider the DUP are out of touch?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049

    We'll have to wait and see, but according to Faisal Islam the draft text on Ireland agrees “full alignment” within N. Ireland on those parts of single market and customs union that might otherwise lead to hard border.... That's a rather important qualification.

    Ah, now that's rather different.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    Ally_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Being part of the EU Customs Union without being part of the EU sounds like a nonsense to me.

    There is likely to be a new bilateral customs union between the UK and the EU - without freedom of movement a la Canada and the EU.
    A FTA which ends free movement is what most voters want, minus diehard Remainers and diehard Leavers.
    Welcome to the EEA HYUFD. Oh, that doesn't prevent free movement? Sorry Sir, this is the best we can offer you. As this WILL be the best we can get when will someone press the rewind button?
    The 2 key reasons Leave voters voted Leave was to regain sovereignty and to end free movement, a FTA respects both.
This discussion has been closed.