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SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No deal, yet

"On a couple of issues, some differences do remain" – UK PM Theresa May on failure to reach deal with EU in #Brexit talks https://t.co/UEqjIb9s51 pic.twitter.com/b5OqkrAsXy

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    First, like Leave.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    edited December 4
    Second like the next referendum.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    surbiton said:

    It's hard to see the DUP getting on board now - their grassroots will be screaming blue murder and they will be forced to take a harder line.

    The only way to take a credible harder line on no GB/NI border is to reverse support for Brexit.

    That would really put the UK government on the spot.
    The people of Northern Ireland did vote to stay in the UK, i.e. the Single Market and the Customs Union. It is the DUP which is reneging on the people's democratic wishes. The DUP have no MPs in the mainland - so they should not worry about the rUK.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    New elections in 2018.

    Another referendum in 2019.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    surbiton said:

    New elections in 2018.

    Another referendum in 2019.

    Brexit means Brexit
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    surbiton said:

    New elections in 2018.

    Another referendum in 2019.

    Not sure we are there yet. But Vernon Bogdanor may yet be proved to be right.
  • Still not sold on how we get a 3018 election. Would involve Tory MPs voting for an early election in which they would lose their seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    surbiton said:

    New elections in 2018.

    Another referendum in 2019.

    Are these, to use the old phrase, "nailed on"? :)
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 755
    Hello everyone. It’s been a while.

    Just popping in to luxuriate in the schadenfreude.

    See you at the next referendum.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    Still not sold on how we get a 3018 election. Would involve Tory MPs voting for an early election in which they would lose their seats.

    Concentrate on the short term.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318

    Still not sold on how we get a 3018 election. Would involve Tory MPs voting for an early election in which they would lose their seats.

    Do they register their protest at the cravenness of their party in allowing pigdog traitors to kowtow to Johnny Foreigner. Or do they suck it up for fear of a Jezza govt.

    Some might opt for the former.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,063
    Big danger for May is that the DUP will realise that the final deal will inevitably be something they cannot support.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Second referendum..you heard it here first.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 742
    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    Still not sold on how we get a 3018 election. Would involve Tory MPs voting for an early election in which they would lose their seats.

    Shades of Sion Simon....
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 5,858
    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    This is PB, spiritual home of armchair generals everywhere. Are you new here?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,063
    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    Tell the DUP to do one.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 756
    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    Resign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925

    Still not sold on how we get a 3018 election. Would involve Tory MPs voting for an early election in which they would lose their seats.

    Difficult to predict that far ahead, but everyone voting in that particular election will be related to all of us posting here today.
  • currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    Everyone knows better but does not have the responsibilty.

    BBC reporting disappointment in the EU, so counting your chickens comes into mind
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    John_M said:

    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    This is PB, spiritual home of armchair generals everywhere. Are you new here?
    Welcome back John!

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    Understand as I think Faisal Islam pointed out, that leaving the EU did not specifically entail any one measure or measures. Including leaving the single market, freedom of movement, and all the rest.

    She allowed both her natural instincts (limited as they are) together with her Brexito-loons to dictate the pace.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006

    Still not sold on how we get a 3018 election. Would involve Tory MPs voting for an early election in which they would lose their seats.

    Most backbenchers would not lose their seats, especially where they weigh the vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    IanB2 said:

    Second referendum..you heard it here first.

    I refer to my earlier point about Vernon Bogdanor.

    Apparently he taught Cameron. But not clear he was listening in those tutorials.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Welcome back, Mr. M.

    Mr. B2, I have mentioned it once or twice :p
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    IanB2 said:

    Second referendum..you heard it here first.

    Rejoin a political union under worse terms.

    Some on here should be ashamed of themselves how low you think of this country.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    If the DUP hold their line we will almost inevitably have a second referendum announced by the end of January.

    It's probably the only way the DUP can save face after their kamikaze support for Brexit in the first place.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    edited December 4
    There are two possible explanations for today.

    One is that May agreed to a lot of stuff but did not clear it with the DUP and so has backed away from an agreement at the last minute.

    The other is that she did not agree and that the EU has tried to bounce her into an agreement through leaking the details of their proposal.

    All the Remainers on here all day have assumed it was the first. It is equally as likely it was the second and there appears to be no evidence to support one contention over the other.

    I would like to think that the Remainers would learn a lesson from this, but I very much doubt they will.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 4,477

    Still not sold on how we get a 3018 election. Would involve Tory MPs voting for an early election in which they would lose their seats.

    It would need the DUP to support a No Confidence Vote. A Dissolution follows autimatically in the absence of an Affirmative Confidence Vote within 14 days.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    That's exceedingly easy in this case: Discussed potential wording with Arlene Foster.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 5,858
    edited December 4
    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:

    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    This is PB, spiritual home of armchair generals everywhere. Are you new here?
    Welcome back John!

    Thank you Mortimer. While I have mostly retired from the fray, I do drift in occasionally to allow the warring tribes an opportunity to bask in the radiance of my presence, so this is not unprecedented :).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Tyndall, a fair comment. There have been plenty of leaks, such as those to the German press.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    Welcome back, Mr. M.

    Mr. B2, I have mentioned it once or twice :p

    True. But then I have been predicting it for almost as long as you have been predicting the non appearance of the safety car.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    I think real progress. For the first time, this government has been serious about Brexit in the recent couple of weeks. The points of difference look to be defined and narrow, so they should be bridgeable. Admittedly this is just the first and easiest of at least three rounds of Brexit talks. But progress nevertheless.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318

    There are two possible explanations for today.

    One is that May agreed to a lot of stuff but did not clear it with the DUP and so has backed away from an agreement at the last minute.

    The other is that she did not agree and that the EU has tried to bounce her into an agreement through leaking the details of their proposal.

    All the Remainers on here all day have assumed it was the first. It is equally as likely it was the second and there appears to be no evidence to support one contention over the other.

    I would like to think that the Remainers would learn a lesson from this, but I very much doubt they will.

    D'unt matter which it is. She is PM and it's her job to get us a good deal. This she seems manifestly not able to do. Although of course we shall wait and see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    If the DUP hold their line we will almost inevitably have a second referendum announced by the end of January.

    It's probably the only way the DUP can save face after their kamikaze support for Brexit in the first place.

    Surely the 48 letters will get to 1922 before May can announce a 2nd referendum?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 802
    Peston tweeting that TM ready to agree regulatory alignment for whole of UK. Cabinet resignations surely if she goes down that route.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 293
    Yes, it is progress in that the UK and EU are minded to do a deal.

    But being "minded" counts for nothing if you can't get the backing to sign that deal, and the effect of today is that this backing is less, not more likely.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 6,104
    I can’t tell whether it’s May that’s the big issue here - that she just isn’t very good - or whether Brexit is so complex that any PM would be in this mess.
  • Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    I said that on the previous thread.

    Throw the DUP into the sea if the bugger up the Brexit deal.
  • I don't know the ins and outs of it all, but the tone in that brief "No deal" press conference seemed remarkably warm and conciliatory considering that the EU are in control and want to grind Britain's face into the dirt. Maybe it's not as most on here want it to be- from either side- and a deal might actually be in the offing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    kjohnw said:

    Peston tweeting that TM ready to agree regulatory alignment for whole of UK. Cabinet resignations surely if she goes down that route.

    I'm lost now. What were the DUP complaining about then?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    fpt
    I think I might have played rugby against him 25 years ago..
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    DUP standing up for Britain.

    At least someone on our side seems to know how to negotiate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Scott_P said:
    Can Boris at least stay in till the new year ?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,221
    Pulpstar said:

    currystar said:

    An incredible amount of criticism on here of May. What would those who criticise her do that she is not?

    That's exceedingly easy in this case: Discussed potential wording with Arlene Foster.
    May knows what the DUP and majority in NI want without having to check with them. She knows they don't want to be separated from the UK in any further ways than at present.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 293

    Throw the DUP into the sea if the bugger up the Brexit deal.

    She can't. She doesn't have a majority if the DUP go overboard.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    edited December 4
    Mr. B2, be fair. There shouldn't've been one at Monaco. Button tried a stupid move for a non-points position.

    Not that I'm still annoyed about it.

    Mr. W, ****ing hell. She might as well don a gimp suit if she's going that far. What's the point of leaving if we're going to let the EU dictate our regulations?

    The 1922 Committee should (figuratively) put her in a sack, throw her in the Thames and get a PM who has a spine, brain, and guts (or at least a couple of them).

    On the plus side, it does make my 6.5 on another vote pre-2020 seem good value.

    Edited extra bit: that does assume Peston's right. And we all recall how accurate he was just as the polling closed on the referendum.

    I may have been a shade excessive. Maybe.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,063

    Yes, it is progress in that the UK and EU are minded to do a deal.

    But being "minded" counts for nothing if you can't get the backing to sign that deal, and the effect of today is that this backing is less, not more likely.

    May has the numbers in Parliament for a deal. Does she have the numbers in her party?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,063

    If the DUP hold their line we will almost inevitably have a second referendum announced by the end of January.

    It's probably the only way the DUP can save face after their kamikaze support for Brexit in the first place.

    Or we stay in the Customs Union.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    TOPPING said:

    There are two possible explanations for today.

    One is that May agreed to a lot of stuff but did not clear it with the DUP and so has backed away from an agreement at the last minute.

    The other is that she did not agree and that the EU has tried to bounce her into an agreement through leaking the details of their proposal.

    All the Remainers on here all day have assumed it was the first. It is equally as likely it was the second and there appears to be no evidence to support one contention over the other.

    I would like to think that the Remainers would learn a lesson from this, but I very much doubt they will.

    D'unt matter which it is. She is PM and it's her job to get us a good deal. This she seems manifestly not able to do. Although of course we shall wait and see.
    To get a good deal she first has to not sign any bad deals.

    To summarise the day - no deal is better than a bad deal.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,831

    I can’t tell whether it’s May that’s the big issue here - that she just isn’t very good - or whether Brexit is so complex that any PM would be in this mess.

    Or that it is both.

    Brexit needs someone with the wisdom of Solomon. It has someone with all the nous of Frank Spencer (“Some Mothers do ‘Ave ‘Em) handling it.
  • fpt

    I think I might have played rugby against him 25 years ago..
    He'd have been 14 then, was it a schoolboy match?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,221
    edited December 4
    Dynamite: May selling the DUP down the river.

    BBC reports ......

    "Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts earlier told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

    The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name"
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152

    fpt

    I think I might have played rugby against him 25 years ago..
    He'd have been 14 then, was it a schoolboy match?
    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,831
    TGOHF said:

    DUP standing up for Britain.

    At least someone on our side seems to know how to negotiate.

    The DUP is standing up for itself and precisely no-one else.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963

    I can’t tell whether it’s May that’s the big issue here - that she just isn’t very good - or whether Brexit is so complex that any PM would be in this mess.

    Maybe a bit of both, but perhaps an even bigger factor is that the great British public decided not to give her the majority she was seeking, thus making it impossible for her to carry out the negotiations properly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701

    Dynamite: May selling the DUP down the river.

    BBC reports ......

    "Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts earlier told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

    The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name"

    How the f can one part of UK remain in Single Market? I suppose we might see Sunderland and Swindon's car plants move to Belfast.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,221

    fpt

    I think I might have played rugby against him 25 years ago..
    He'd have been 14 then, was it a schoolboy match?
    Public school?
  • I can’t tell whether it’s May that’s the big issue here - that she just isn’t very good - or whether Brexit is so complex that any PM would be in this mess.

    Maybe a bit of both, but perhaps an even bigger factor is that the great British public decided not to give her the majority she was seeking, thus making it impossible for her to carry out the negotiations properly.
    Her own fault. She was bequeathed a majority by David Cameron, and there was no need to have a general election for another three years.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,105

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Today has been reassuring on that front. May/Davis may need to be seen to clearly win something somewhere along the line though.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    Scott_P said:
    It's high risk, but it could work. Theresa May's calculation up to now is to be the hardest of Brexits and never be outflanked. Going for soft Brexit may split the hard core. Some hardliners will resist it; others will bank a form of Brexit even if it isn't what they want.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540

    I don't know the ins and outs of it all, but the tone in that brief "No deal" press conference seemed remarkably warm and conciliatory considering that the EU are in control and want to grind Britain's face into the dirt. Maybe it's not as most on here want it to be- from either side- and a deal might actually be in the offing.

    Let’s face it. the EU DON’T want us to leave. They’d prefer we sent them different MEP’s of course, but they want us to stay. if they can get May off the hook, and keep her on-side tbey will.
  • fpt

    I think I might have played rugby against him 25 years ago..
    He'd have been 14 then, was it a schoolboy match?
    Public school?
    Yup, Rupert's an Old Etonian.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    Scott_P said:
    At this rate she'll be abandoning Brexit altogether in a week or two. What's the point of leaving if the UK cannot diverge from EU regulations?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963

    I can’t tell whether it’s May that’s the big issue here - that she just isn’t very good - or whether Brexit is so complex that any PM would be in this mess.

    Maybe a bit of both, but perhaps an even bigger factor is that the great British public decided not to give her the majority she was seeking, thus making it impossible for her to carry out the negotiations properly.
    Her own fault. She was bequeathed a majority by David Cameron, and there was no need to have a general election for another three years.
    That too. However, that doesn't absolve voters of responsibility for the consequences of their votes. It was plain as a pikestaff that to negotiate Brexit she needed a majority, and preferably a large one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049

    Actually, everyone has missed the real story of the day. Both the EU and the UK (for all their protestations and positioning) are obviously keen to do a deal.

    My guess - contrary to what I have long planned upon - is that ultimately a deal will therefore be done.

    Not really. I tweeted something similar an hour ago.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Scott_P said:
    At this rate she'll be abandoning Brexit altogether in a week or two. What's the point of leaving if the UK cannot diverge from EU regulations?
    Precisely, which is why convergence is a non-starter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    At last, a deal with an upside.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152

    fpt

    I think I might have played rugby against him 25 years ago..
    He'd have been 14 then, was it a schoolboy match?
    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5
    Actually, I'm definitely wrong. He would have been in the year below me. I saw he was born 78 as well, and erroneously assumed he was in the same year as me. But I'm March, he's November.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Borough, I agree entirely. And this was predicted:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    Scott_P said:
    Is that Yes/No support for independence or a second referendum? If the former then it's a very high starting point for Yes, and support has now clearly outgrown the SNP.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105

    Dynamite: May selling the DUP down the river.

    BBC reports ......

    "Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts earlier told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

    The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name"

    How the f can one part of UK remain in Single Market? I suppose we might see Sunderland and Swindon's car plants move to Belfast.
    I'm more puzzled to know how some, or all, of the UK remains part of the EU's Customs Union on leaving the EU. That would seem to be neither in our interest, nor in their interest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Incidentally, if anyone's getting a bit hot under the collar I can highly recommend you relax with some nice soothing bar charts portraying the reliability and points-scoring proclivity of cars in the 2017 F1 season:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/2017-post-season-review.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @matthewcarson: Reminder that the UK started the Brexit negotiations offering no transition period, 20 billion euros maximum, and no special arrangements for NI. Now it’s 2/3 years transition, 60 billion euros, and special arrangements for NI. The Art Of The Deal, by Theresa May.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 7,105

    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5

    Was it a particularly difficult conversion?

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,308
    Sterling tumbled 0.66%. Georgi hasn't lived.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,221
    Scott_P said:

    I just can't see the EU wanting to align their regulations with those of the UK.

    Continent cut off by fuzzy thinking.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,308
    Scott_P said:

    @matthewcarson: Reminder that the UK started the Brexit negotiations offering no transition period, 20 billion euros maximum, and no special arrangements for NI. Now it’s 2/3 years transition, 60 billion euros, and special arrangements for NI. The Art Of The Deal, by Theresa May.

    Nothing's agreed until everything's agreed
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 8
    The DUP's position also seems to be that it wouldn't allow a special deal for Scotland or Wales (or London) either, as that would also be a threat to the union. So do ScotIndy win either way; either carve out separate deal with EU from rest of the UK and make a basis for independence from that, or argue that the straight jacket terms of a "one deal hits all countries" demands an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    There are two possible explanations for today.

    One is that May agreed to a lot of stuff but did not clear it with the DUP and so has backed away from an agreement at the last minute.

    The other is that she did not agree and that the EU has tried to bounce her into an agreement through leaking the details of their proposal.

    All the Remainers on here all day have assumed it was the first. It is equally as likely it was the second and there appears to be no evidence to support one contention over the other.

    I would like to think that the Remainers would learn a lesson from this, but I very much doubt they will.

    D'unt matter which it is. She is PM and it's her job to get us a good deal. This she seems manifestly not able to do. Although of course we shall wait and see.
    To get a good deal she first has to not sign any bad deals.

    To summarise the day - no deal is better than a bad deal.

    There is no such thing as no deal.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 4,221

    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5

    Was it a particularly difficult conversion?

    Was it only three points for a try at the time?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 2,899
    Well, what to make of all that? My guess is that a hard-Brexit mole in the May camp leaked some controversial stuff to enrage the DUP and scupper things. Very clever if so - Rees-Mogg and co. have now been forewarned and they can brand Theresa a saboteur if she attempts a stunt like that again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    Scott_P said:

    @matthewcarson: Reminder that the UK started the Brexit negotiations offering no transition period, 20 billion euros maximum, and no special arrangements for NI. Now it’s 2/3 years transition, 60 billion euros, and special arrangements for NI. The Art Of The Deal, by Theresa May.

    The transition is a good thing, surely? And I don’t recall the £20bn being described as the full liabilities. A far cry from the initial €100bn demand though.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    Yes, I played for Marlborough against Eton that year. I think they beat us 7-5

    Was it a particularly difficult conversion?

    That must have been a stonking match. Two tries in total, in Boys Rugby; the matches I saw used to have 2 in the first 15 minutes.... once saw BNC win 60 something - 3...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Grss, welcome to pb.com.

    Had Remain won 52%, I can't see the likes of Khan or the SNP calling for those parts of the nation that voted to Leave to do so separately. It's a rancid reductionism of politics.

    When the Scots voted to stay in the UK, was there a call for those parts that voted to leave to separate?

    *sighs*
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 20,498
    edited December 4
    Interesting electoral fact: since 1992 only two seats in the wider regions of London / south east / East Anglia have moved from Labour to Conservative: Southampton Itchen and Thurrock, compared to about 31 seats across the country as a whole in that category. (Around 74 seats moved the other way. Boundary changes make the comparisons inexact). Southampton Itchen is effectively a swap with Southampton Test between 1992 and 2017, which leaves Thurrock as the only seat to switch in that part of the country since 1992. Those numbers would leave the Tories down 43 seats, but in fact they're only down 18 seats, which means they got a seat bonus of about 25 seats from the various boundary changes since 1992.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Well, what to make of all that? My guess is that a hard-Brexit mole in the May camp leaked some controversial stuff to enrage the DUP and scupper things. Very clever if so - Rees-Mogg and co. have now been forewarned and they can brand Theresa a saboteur if she attempts a stunt like that again.

    Or it was the EU trying to bounce her into something. They have form on leaking.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,308
    Sean_F said:

    Dynamite: May selling the DUP down the river.

    BBC reports ......

    "Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts earlier told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.

    The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name"

    How the f can one part of UK remain in Single Market? I suppose we might see Sunderland and Swindon's car plants move to Belfast.
    I'm more puzzled to know how some, or all, of the UK remains part of the EU's Customs Union on leaving the EU. That would seem to be neither in our interest, nor in their interest.
    They're all in cloud cuckoo land. The world's gone crazy.
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