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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yippee ki-yay, The British public say Die Hard is NOT a Christ

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yippee ki-yay, The British public say Die Hard is NOT a Christmas movie

Only 31% of voters say Die Hard is a Christmas movie @yougov finds. Not surprising, The Empire Strikes Back has more snow in it than Die Hard. pic.twitter.com/E2e8RIqpNg

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    First. They are wrong.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 2,308
    second, who cares
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 4
    Third. The Great Escape is definitely an Xmas movie; it used to be on every year.
  • eekeek Posts: 1,913
    Could you really watch it in the height of summer at a cinema - for that reason alone it’s a Christmas movie
  • eekeek Posts: 1,913
    edited December 4
    Also how badly are you losing the previous thread for this to replace it - I’ll check back in an hour when I’m in Copenhagen
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339

    First. They are wrong.

    Like Brexit...
  • eekeek Posts: 1,913
    Fpt

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    Blue passports?
    Is it the colour or the fact it’s a soft back rather than hardback book people dislike

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    What happened to @JonnyJimmy?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 716
    edited December 4
    Is Brexit The Movie (2019) a Christmas film?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    How is this thread about political betting?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 293
    Anecdata klaxon.

    Talking to a local councillor today, who observed that a much larger number than usual of incumbent Conservatives on our local council are standing down this May, and that the local party is finding it hard to identify good quality replacements (for what are, in many cases, shoo-in wards).

    There might be local factors, but if so I don't know of them. It might be coincidence. Or it could be the cumulative effect of a botched GE17, year-on-year cuts to local government funding (why put yourself through all this just to defend service cuts you can't change), and a surprisingly rampant Labour party.

    I genuinely don't know. But what I do know is that hollowing out the local council activist base usually presages further decline in a party. Ask the LibDems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    Is Brexit The Movie (2019) a Christmas film?

    They need to hurry up if David Jason is to be able to take on the role of David Davis.

    "Mange tout, Michel. Mange tout."
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    Thanks @TOPPING ! I seemed to be banned until you asked..
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 510
    edited December 4
    eek said:

    Fpt

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    Blue passports?
    Is it the colour or the fact it’s a soft back rather than hardback book people dislike

    Leaving the EU won't bring that back. The soft back is an International Civil Aviation Organization standard. I suppose we could leave ICAO too, but non-standard passports would almost certainly require visas from most countries.
  • IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,342

    Thanks @TOPPING ! I seemed to be banned until you asked..

    Why ?
  • Thanks @TOPPING ! I seemed to be banned until you asked..

    Vanilla seems to have banned EE IP addresses as spam.
  • chloechloe Posts: 141
    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    eek said:

    Could you really watch it in the height of summer at a cinema - for that reason alone it’s a Christmas movie

    It was released in July. Who releases a Christmas movie in July?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 5,858
    edited December 4
    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    Given the EU's track record, it will be a five-minutes-to-midnight job. It's hardly worth expending one's emotional energy as shenanigans ensue for the next day or so.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    Trade talks are in phase 3 - mostly or entirely after we have left the EU. Phase 2 is mainly about the "transition" - effectively a temporary and limited extension of current arrangements, but there will be some agreement on the direction of the subsequent trade talks.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152

    eek said:

    Could you really watch it in the height of summer at a cinema - for that reason alone it’s a Christmas movie

    It was released in July. Who releases a Christmas movie in July?
    It's A Wonderful Life was released 20 December
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited December 4
    FF43 said:

    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    Trade talks are in phase 3 - mostly or entirely after we have left the EU. Phase 2 is mainly about the "transition" - effectively a temporary and limited extension of current arrangements, but there will be some agreement on the direction of the subsequent trade talks.
    I thought phase two was on the future relationship?

    For example, what Barnier said here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 5,858

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    Bravo Richard, everyone needs time off from worrying about the B-word. I've found my impending marriage (29th December!) has, unaccountably, distracted me from all the hoop-la. Perhaps others can find some (possibly less life-changing) remedy of their own. Shall we have the equivalent of the Christmas truce in WW1 for the evening?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 8,837

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    It's not as if anything has happened today anyways.
  • calumcalum Posts: 2,845
    I was the second headline after Brexit on the Scottish News !

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 179
    edited December 4

    eek said:

    Could you really watch it in the height of summer at a cinema - for that reason alone it’s a Christmas movie

    It was released in July. Who releases a Christmas movie in July?
    Christmas in Connecticut was released in August.

    By Yougov's definition though It's a Wonderful Life wouldn't count as a Christmas movie either. Most of the film isn't even set at Christmas.

    Bush Christmas doesn't have any snow either but then it is set in Australia.

    Strangest one is Stay another Day by East 17 being widely regarded as a Christmas song because of a few bells on it near the end and some fake snow in the video.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42221737

    They're shameless. Even with the head of the Met saying that they're investigating the release of confidential information as a crime, the BBC is continuing to parrot the very information which they were an accessory in the potentially illegal release of. They can't mention the case without naming him, and talking about 1000s of pictures.

    I hope, but obviously can't imagine will happen, that the result of the investigation by the Met is that these two bent cops almost certainly fabricated the information, and nothing was actually found on the computer. That is the only result that would be fair to the DPM. If the bent cops won't shut up, they should be locked up.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    TM is going back to Brussels later this week
  • Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    It's not as if anything has happened today anyways.
    Don't worry I'll do a thread on the Survation poll tomorrow.

    I want to do it justice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited December 4
    Which will lead to... border controls. You couldn't make it up.
  • IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,009
    Die Hard is as much a Christmas Movie as Chris Rea's classic is a Christmas song:


    The movie is about Christmas. It is specifically about his adventure while getting home to see his family for Christmas. It may not be your classic Christmas adventure but it is one.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    Charles said:

    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    TM is going back to Brussels later this week
    Its as good as sorted then. Strong and Stable is guaranteed not to blow it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Charles said:

    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    TM is going back to Brussels later this week
    Its as good as sorted then. Strong and Stable is guaranteed not to blow it.
    I doubt they'd have gone back so soon if they weren't close.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847

    Anecdata klaxon.

    Talking to a local councillor today, who observed that a much larger number than usual of incumbent Conservatives on our local council are standing down this May, and that the local party is finding it hard to identify good quality replacements (for what are, in many cases, shoo-in wards).

    There might be local factors, but if so I don't know of them. It might be coincidence. Or it could be the cumulative effect of a botched GE17, year-on-year cuts to local government funding (why put yourself through all this just to defend service cuts you can't change), and a surprisingly rampant Labour party.

    I genuinely don't know. But what I do know is that hollowing out the local council activist base usually presages further decline in a party. Ask the LibDems.

    Its the same where I am, the labour party councillors are quitting en masse due mostly to old age. No shortage of Momentum types to replace them, how they actually perform as councillors will be interesting.

    I wouldn't do it in a million years although I've been asked several times. I'd have to resign for the sake of my own sanity after about a week.


  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
    Nailed on the best Christmas movie is A Muppet Christmas Carol. Michael Caines finest performance.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847
    calum said:

    I was the second headline after Brexit on the Scottish News !

    Fascinating story - wow. Thanks for sharing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 1,752
    edited December 4
    Die Hard. Is that the one where Arlene Foster throws Theresa May out the window to plunge to her death...?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    They will be saying pineapple on a pizza isn't a real pizza next...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    RobD said:

    Which will lead to... border controls. You couldn't make it up.
    But you would not get your cherished "free" trade agreement.
  • IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
    Nailed on the best Christmas movie is A Muppet Christmas Carol. Michael Caines finest performance.
    Love Actually for me.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    dodrade said:

    eek said:

    Could you really watch it in the height of summer at a cinema - for that reason alone it’s a Christmas movie

    It was released in July. Who releases a Christmas movie in July?
    Christmas in Connecticut was released in August.

    By Yougov's definition though It's a Wonderful Life wouldn't count as a Christmas movie either. Most of the film isn't even set at Christmas.

    Bush Christmas doesn't have any snow either but then it is set in Australia.

    Strangest one is Stay another Day by East 17 being widely regarded as a Christmas song because of a few bells on it near the end and some fake snow in the video.
    Interestingly though, both movies were released for Xmas in the UK.. Die Hard end of November, and Xmas in Ct in December.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318

    Thanks @TOPPING ! I seemed to be banned until you asked..

    Ha! Welcome back we were talking about the rugby and then you were gone!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    On topic Die Hard 4,0 was and is an excellent film. At Christmas or any other time.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
    Nailed on the best Christmas movie is A Muppet Christmas Carol. Michael Caines finest performance.
    Love Actually for me.
    Was Michael Caine in that too?
  • IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
    Nailed on the best Christmas movie is A Muppet Christmas Carol. Michael Caines finest performance.
    Love Actually for me.
    Was Michael Caine in that too?
    Nope.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    A very apt thread, having just helped the Good Lady to "do" Christmas all over the house. It looks beautiful.

    And Gremlins is my Christmas movie.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
    Set at a Christmas party, lots of unconventional top-down entry into buildings, and if that's not enough check out the heroine's Christian name. It's a Christmas movie.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,523
    I've never watched Die Hard.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
    Nailed on the best Christmas movie is A Muppet Christmas Carol. Michael Caines finest performance.
    Love Actually for me.
    Was Michael Caine in that too?
    Not a lot of people know that
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,054

    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    edited December 4

    Charles said:

    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    TM is going back to Brussels later this week
    Its as good as sorted then. Strong and Stable is guaranteed not to blow it.
    She popped by for a drink tonight on her way back to the office and was remarkably chipper!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42221737

    They're shameless. Even with the head of the Met saying that they're investigating the release of confidential information as a crime, the BBC is continuing to parrot the very information which they were an accessory in the potentially illegal release of. They can't mention the case without naming him, and talking about 1000s of pictures.

    I hope, but obviously can't imagine will happen, that the result of the investigation by the Met is that these two bent cops almost certainly fabricated the information, and nothing was actually found on the computer. That is the only result that would be fair to the DPM. If the bent cops won't shut up, they should be locked up.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880


    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

    Oh Little Town of Basingstoke
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    chloe said:

    So do we think the government can get a deal to move onto stage 2 by Wednesday? It is not looking promising for the trade talks.

    TM is going back to Brussels later this week
    Its as good as sorted then. Strong and Stable is guaranteed not to blow it.
    She popped by for a drink tonight on her way back to the office and was remarkable chipper!
    Demob happy :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    edited December 4
    FPT

    1. The EEA is an agreement between members of the EU and members of EFTA. The whole way in which the treaty is written means it is not possible to be in the EEA without being in the EU or EFTA.

    Correct.

    2. EFTA members negotiate trade agreements as a group. Therefore you cannot be in EFTA and be in the EU Customs Union. The two are mutually exclusive.

    Therefore your statement is utterly wrong. One cannot be in the EEA and the Customs Union without being a member of the EU.

    Incorrect. EFTA is explicitly NOT a Customs Union. EFTA members are explicitly able to enter into any bilateral arrangements they choose. EFTA does negotiate free trade agreements on behalf of its members. It is then up to members to decide whether to participate in those arrangements as an individual country. Agreements are not automatically available to additional countries. Regardless of the EU Customs Union issue, counterparties would likely want to negotiate any arrangement separately for the UK, which is more than five times the total size of the previous EFTA organisation.

    Any decisions to allow the UK to join EFTA and/or the EU Customs Union are political ones that depend on the other party's calculation of the benefit to them. If EFTA doesn't work out for the UK, the EU and the UK can create parallel structures that recreate the main benefits, if they so wish.

    We should make the decision to join the EU Customs Union on a cost/benefit calculation. The benefits are frictionless (as today) borders at places such as Dover and the Irish border. The second in turn helps protect the Good Friday Agreement. We can partially link into 60 existing preferential trade agreements that have already been set up through the Customs Union.

    Being in a Customs Union, however, removes much of our leverage in trade talks with third countries. Offering lower tariffs or better access is the currency of trade negotiations. You use that currency to get the other side to offer you better access. To be clear, being in a Customs Union doesn't prevent us having trade deals. In fact we have to negotiate our own deals under any Brexit scenario. But it does constrain the contents of those trade deals. OTOH we don't have much leverage anyway outside the Customs Union. We will be signing up to degraded third party arrangements, compared with those we had as EU members

    The Customs Union protects our farmers' main export market and prevents a flood of cheap imports undermining their home market. OTOH, protectionism does result in more expensive food prices. I guess that can be argued either way.

    In summary, being in the Customs Union would bring bigger advantages to a greater amount of trade than being outside it. On a cost/benefit it's a clear winner.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880
    “David has an historic role in government and we are within touching distance of getting a major breakthrough on Brexit. Why would he walk away from that?”
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    edited December 4


    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

    Oh Little Town of Basingstoke
    My old favourite

    'God rest ye Jerry Mentalmen'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    The juxtaposition of Boris with Major and Blair's statements before the referendum shows just how unsuited our Foreign Secretary is for high office.

  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,523


    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

    Oh Little Town of Basingstoke
    My old favourite

    'God rest ye Jerry Mentalmen'
    Away in a Remainger
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880


    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

    Oh Little Town of Basingstoke
    My old favourite

    'God rest ye Jerry Mentalmen'
    12 Years of BREXIT??
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    A May in A-Danger?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,195


    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

    Oh Little Town of Basingstoke
    My old favourite

    'God rest ye Jerry Mentalmen'
    Let nothing you dis May? (That may have gone wrong)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    Only a minority of Americans fully accept evolution through natural selection... which is fair evidence that opinion polls don't settle issues with any degree of reliability. And as it's a US movie, what the British public (most of whom aren't really Christian anyway) think is pretty well irrelevant.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 8,880


    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

    Oh Little Town of Basingstoke
    My old favourite

    'God rest ye Jerry Mentalmen'
    12 Years of BREXIT??
    On the first year of BREXIT the EU gave to me Fook All

    On the 2nd Year of BREXIT...........
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    That Remainer classic, dedicated to Fox, Davis and Johnson:

    I saw three shits (come flailing in)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 293
    While shepherds watched their Polish staff /
    All piss off back to Lodz /
    Remainers cross the land did laugh /
    At May's unholy bodge
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    edited December 4
    calum said:

    I was the second headline after Brexit on the Scottish News !

    Well done on getting the campaign up the news agenda!

    Keeping the welfare state efficient, responsive, comprehensive and universal is the political challenge of our time. People shouldn't have to fight for stuff, it should just happen.

    My hope when - labour take power - is we can create a smarter welfare state. My slightly off-the-wall suggestion is to integrate a national social care service into a new national service - that both teenagers - and the able newly-retired - can participate in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253

    The juxtaposition of Boris with Major and Blair's statements before the referendum shows just how unsuited our Foreign Secretary is for high office.

    twitter.com/Channel4News/status/937780442513764357

    "We're not scaring people, we're warning them."

    45 mins....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896


    In the Bleak Midwinter

    Silent Night, Silent Day

    O come all ye Brexiteers, joyful and triumphant

    - Brexit Carols

    Oh Little Town of Basingstoke
    My old favourite

    'God rest ye Jerry Mentalmen'
    12 Years of BREXIT??
    On the first year of BREXIT the EU gave to me Fook All

    On the 2nd Year of BREXIT...........
    It sounds to me like you are seeking to re-write the Liberal merger song....

    On the first day of merger
    The soggies gave to me,
    Well, not much actually.

    On the second day of merger
    The soggies gave to me,
    Absolutely zilch,
    Well, not much actually

    3. ..Sweet F.A.
    4. ..A very small amount.
    5. ..BUGGER ALL.
    6. ..Very little really.
    7. ..Nothing you would miss.
    8. ..Just a meagre smidgen.
    9. ..Nought that they would miss.
    10. .,Not a bleeding sausage.
    11. ..Mere peccadilloes.
    12. ..Just a meagre helping.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42221737

    They're shameless. Even with the head of the Met saying that they're investigating the release of confidential information as a crime, the BBC is continuing to parrot the very information which they were an accessory in the potentially illegal release of. They can't mention the case without naming him, and talking about 1000s of pictures.

    I hope, but obviously can't imagine will happen, that the result of the investigation by the Met is that these two bent cops almost certainly fabricated the information, and nothing was actually found on the computer. That is the only result that would be fair to the DPM. If the bent cops won't shut up, they should be locked up.

    If there was no porn and it was all fabricated, then what confidential information has been released "as a crime"?
  • Die Hard is THE Christmas movie.

    Die Hard 2 is also a Christmas movie.

    The first is more Christmassy than Miracle on 34th Street and It's a Wonderful Life.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    The juxtaposition of Boris with Major and Blair's statements before the referendum shows just how unsuited our Foreign Secretary is for high office.

    His expensive mistakes across London have cost the city a fortune, but he was never held accountable, largely because of the lopsided power balance between the Mayor and the Assembly, and his greater ability to play the media. We just have to hope that his luck is about to finally run out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42221737

    They're shameless. Even with the head of the Met saying that they're investigating the release of confidential information as a crime, the BBC is continuing to parrot the very information which they were an accessory in the potentially illegal release of. They can't mention the case without naming him, and talking about 1000s of pictures.

    I hope, but obviously can't imagine will happen, that the result of the investigation by the Met is that these two bent cops almost certainly fabricated the information, and nothing was actually found on the computer. That is the only result that would be fair to the DPM. If the bent cops won't shut up, they should be locked up.

    If there was no porn and it was all fabricated, then what confidential information has been released "as a crime"?
    In that case, I think they'd be happily pleading to the release of confidential data....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    FF43 said:


    Incorrect. EFTA is explicitly NOT a Customs Union. EFTA members are explicitly able to enter into any bilateral arrangements they choose. EFTA does negotiate free trade agreements on behalf of its members. It is then up to members to decide whether to participate in those arrangements as an individual country. Agreements are not automatically available to additional countries. Regardless of the EU Customs Union issue, counterparties would likely want to negotiate any arrangement separately for the UK, which is more than five times the total size of the previous EFTA organisation.

    Any decisions to allow the UK to join EFTA and/or the EU Customs Union are political ones that depend on the other party's calculation of the benefit to them. If EFTA doesn't work out for the UK, the EU and the UK can create parallel structures that recreate the main benefits, if they so wish.

    We should make the decision to join the EU Customs Union on a cost/benefit calculation. The benefits are frictionless (as today) borders at places such as Dover and the Irish border. The second in turn helps protect the Good Friday Agreement. We can partially link into 60 existing preferential trade agreements that have already been set up through the Customs Union.

    Being in a Customs Union, however, removes much of our leverage in trade talks with third countries. Offering lower tariffs or better access is the currency of trade negotiations. You use that currency to get the other side to offer you better access. To be clear, being in a Customs Union doesn't prevent us having trade deals. In fact we have to negotiate our own deals under any Brexit scenario. But it does constrain the contents of those trade deals. OTOH we don't have much leverage anyway outside the Customs Union. We will be signing up to degraded third party arrangements, compared with those we had as EU members

    The Customs Union protects our farmers' main export market and prevents a flood of cheap imports undermining their home market. OTOH, protectionism does result in more expensive food prices. I guess that can be argued either way.

    In summary, being in the Customs Union would bring bigger advantages to a greater amount of trade than being outside it. On a cost/benefit it's a clear winner.

    Wrong i am afraid. Whilst you are correct that EFTA is not a Customs Union, it does negotiate free trade deals as an organisation. This would be illegal if the UK were part of the EU customs union - not under EFTA rules but under EU Customs Union rules.

    And now you are officially my mortal enemy as you made me break my promise not to discuss Brexit on this thread.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 107
    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    I think to qualify as a Christmas movie it has to have most of the following elements

    1) Snow
    2) Set around Christmas
    3) Have mention of God, Angels, Jesus, Joseph and Mary.
    4) Santa
    5) Have good Christian values in it
    Set at a Christmas party, lots of unconventional top-down entry into buildings, and if that's not enough check out the heroine's Christian name. It's a Christmas movie.
    Soundtrack has Jingle Bells, Christmas in Hollis by Run DMC, Let It Snow, and Winter Wonderland. If Michael Kamen thinks it's a Christmas film, it's a Christmas film.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 4
    The US Supreme Court has ruled that President Trump's travel ban on six mainly Muslim countries can go fully into effect.

    Seven of the nine justices have granted the administration's request to lift injunctions imposed by lower courts blocking the ban.

    .....Protests incoming....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,776
    @Calum An incredibly moving clip, I am full of admiration for what you have done.
  • So there's even a stark generational divide on the issue of what constitutes a Christmas movie? I don't know whether to laugh or cry...
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    TOPPING said:

    Thanks @TOPPING ! I seemed to be banned until you asked..

    Ha! Welcome back we were talking about the rugby and then you were gone!
    Ah yes, I'd just haunted myself with the memory of playing hooker for Marlborough seconds against Erlestoke prison!

    That was the biggest thrashing I've ever been on the end of. Over a hundred, against our five. Our changing room was their weights room, and the first time any of us had been in a weights room for years. Their front row looked like two of Victor Obogu's wider, much more violent cousins, and their hooker looked a wrongun; he had a six inch scar across his face and a very unsettling twitch.

    But he was an awful hooker. I've never won more scrums against the head. And I've never known that to be so damaging to my own team. Their scrum was so big, and drove us back so quickly, that I was extending the ground we lost by keeping the scrums alive as I kept hooking it back, and realised (far too late!) that I was better off just booting the ball through the scrum so their scrum half would struggle to pick it up.

    Our backs were actually quite well matched with theirs, it was up front that they were murdering us, and to be fair to the backs (which I'm not usually!) they did pretty well at picking up on the new tactic and we finished quite well and scored a try from one of the booted through scrums.

    I said the score was well over a hundred, but didn't mention how terrible their kicker was. After the first try, which was under the posts, they all cheered really loudly when he got the kick. I remember thinking how weird, and a bit scary, that was. Were they that desperate to score? But then he missed the next twenty or so kicks. He got the very last one over, and we all cheered too!

    They played a very clean game though, I think it's only fair to mention. We had no injuries at all. Their scrum half put the ball in the middle of every scrum; one time it landed in the middle but bounced their way and the ref (who was obviously their coach) gave us a penalty for feeding, the scrum half said "But.." and went back 10!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937
    dr_spyn said:

    @Calum An incredibly moving clip, I am full of admiration for what you have done.

    Well said.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    So there's even a stark generational divide on the issue of what constitutes a Christmas movie? I don't know whether to laugh or cry...

    Yes it's very odd. There must be some NLP effect in the wording of the question that makes older people default to answering 'no'.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,423
    I think this very definitely is a Christmas movie. I believe the Germans particularly like it. Classic English music hall humour. Imagine watching it well tanked up.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42221737

    They're shameless. Even with the head of the Met saying that they're investigating the release of confidential information as a crime, the BBC is continuing to parrot the very information which they were an accessory in the potentially illegal release of. They can't mention the case without naming him, and talking about 1000s of pictures.

    I hope, but obviously can't imagine will happen, that the result of the investigation by the Met is that these two bent cops almost certainly fabricated the information, and nothing was actually found on the computer. That is the only result that would be fair to the DPM. If the bent cops won't shut up, they should be locked up.

    If there was no porn and it was all fabricated, then what confidential information has been released "as a crime"?
    He admitted in his interview to not destroying the copies that he was ordered to by the Met. That's what he's being investigated for. If the investigations discover that he also fabricated that evidence, then there was nothing there except bent cops.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144

    The US Supreme Court has ruled that President Trump's travel ban on six mainly Muslim countries can go fully into effect.

    Seven of the nine justices have granted the administration's request to lift injunctions imposed by lower courts blocking the ban.

    .....Protests incoming....

    That's really not a surprise, reading the judgement of such a ban reaches the SCOTUS then the ruling will be fairly straightforward. The executive branch has been given the power by Congress to make any and all decisions on banning the entry of non-citizens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056

    The US Supreme Court has ruled that President Trump's travel ban on six mainly Muslim countries can go fully into effect.

    Seven of the nine justices have granted the administration's request to lift injunctions imposed by lower courts blocking the ban.

    .....Protests incoming....

    Trump having a better week. Well, apart from it all going tits up with the FBI of course!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    dr_spyn said:

    @Calum An incredibly moving clip, I am full of admiration for what you have done.

    Impressive indeed. Keep on fighting.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    How is this thread about political betting?

    PB does do the occasional fun thread.

    To be honest, I didn't have the energy to write a full thread tonight, so I did this.
    Much appreciated.

    It was really good having the thread a couple of days ago which, by happy chance, made no mention at all of the 'B' word in the comments section. I see this one has already failed on that score but I will try to maintain that spirit.

    I am somewhat concerned with your apparently integral association of snow with Christmas movies. After all, The Thing has probably more snow in it than any other I can think of but is certainly not a Christmas Movie.
    Bravo Richard, everyone needs time off from worrying about the B-word. I've found my impending marriage (29th December!) has, unaccountably, distracted me from all the hoop-la. Perhaps others can find some (possibly less life-changing) remedy of their own. Shall we have the equivalent of the Christmas truce in WW1 for the evening?
    Congrats Mr M!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    American Congressman from Republican and Democratic parties weigh in in support of Ireland.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/there-is-bipartisan-support-in-washington-for-irish-position-on-the-border-1.3314931

    This week the House Foreign Affairs Committee will be holding a hearing on the implications of Brexit. As two members of the committee, we will be addressing the issues faced by the people on the island of Ireland. The potential return to a hard border is sparking fears of renewed political violence. We believe the United Kingdom must come to an agreement on a written declaration outlining its plans to avoid a hard border before entering “Phase 2” of the Brexit negotiations, for the good of the ongoing peace process on the island.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42221737

    They're shameless. Even with the head of the Met saying that they're investigating the release of confidential information as a crime, the BBC is continuing to parrot the very information which they were an accessory in the potentially illegal release of. They can't mention the case without naming him, and talking about 1000s of pictures.

    I hope, but obviously can't imagine will happen, that the result of the investigation by the Met is that these two bent cops almost certainly fabricated the information, and nothing was actually found on the computer. That is the only result that would be fair to the DPM. If the bent cops won't shut up, they should be locked up.

    If there was no porn and it was all fabricated, then what confidential information has been released "as a crime"?
    He admitted in his interview to not destroying the copies that he was ordered to by the Met. That's what he's being investigated for. If the investigations discover that he also fabricated that evidence, then there was nothing there except bent cops.
    Oh, and he's also obviously being investigated for then releasing those illegally retained, and quite possibly faked, copies hand in hand with his BBC accomplices. Why the hell have the BBC embroiled themselves in something so clearly political, and so damned blatantly wrong? Why didn't their legal team stop this? I hope heads roll, and that Green gets adequately compensated by the BBC's and the Met's savings on pensions.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 5,190
    edited December 4

    FF43 said:


    Incorrect. EFTA is explicitly NOT a Customs Union. EFTA members are explicitly able to enter into any bilateral arrangements they choose. EFTA does negotiate free trade agreements on behalf of its members. It is then up to members to decide whether to participate in those arrangements as an individual country. Agreements are not automatically available to additional countries. Regardless of the EU Customs Union issue, counterparties would likely want to negotiate any arrangement separately for the UK, which is more than five times the total size of the previous EFTA organisation.

    Any decisions to allow the UK to join EFTA and/or the EU Customs Union are political ones that depend on the other party's calculation of the benefit to them. If EFTA doesn't work out for the UK, the EU and the UK can create parallel structures that recreate the main benefits, if they so wish.

    [snip]

    Wrong i am afraid. Whilst you are correct that EFTA is not a Customs Union, it does negotiate free trade deals as an organisation. This would be illegal if the UK were part of the EU customs union - not under EFTA rules but under EU Customs Union rules.

    And now you are officially my mortal enemy as you made me break my promise not to discuss Brexit on this thread.
    Not illegal under EU rules either. What is legal and illegal is whatever is contained in any EU/UK Customs Agreement. Based on the Turkish CU agreement, the EU encourages the other party to align itself with association agreements the EU has set up with third countries. How it does so, is up to the other party. The point is, the UK can be members of both EFTA (and through them, the EU Single Market) and the EU Customs Union, as long as it doesn't enter into any EFTA agreements with terms that infringe its membership of the Customs Union. EFTA members are under no obligation to enter into these agreements. Then it becomes a question of what people want to do.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,423

    dr_spyn said:

    @Calum An incredibly moving clip, I am full of admiration for what you have done.

    Impressive indeed. Keep on fighting.
    Find.
    Sufficient.
    Money.
    For.
    The.
    NHS.
  • American Congressman from Republican and Democratic parties weigh in in support of Ireland.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/there-is-bipartisan-support-in-washington-for-irish-position-on-the-border-1.3314931

    This week the House Foreign Affairs Committee will be holding a hearing on the implications of Brexit. As two members of the committee, we will be addressing the issues faced by the people on the island of Ireland. The potential return to a hard border is sparking fears of renewed political violence. We believe the United Kingdom must come to an agreement on a written declaration outlining its plans to avoid a hard border before entering “Phase 2” of the Brexit negotiations, for the good of the ongoing peace process on the island.

    Time for them to get their chequebooks out then.
  • dr_spyn said:

    @Calum An incredibly moving clip, I am full of admiration for what you have done.

    +1
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,064
    Toms said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @Calum An incredibly moving clip, I am full of admiration for what you have done.

    Impressive indeed. Keep on fighting.
    Find.
    Sufficient.
    Money.
    For.
    The.
    NHS.
    And how do you define 'sufficient'?
This discussion has been closed.