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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

Picture: Latest Survation Scottish Westminster VI poll translated into seats

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 5
    First!

    Hard to believe that the Labour leader supporting the English football team isn't going to be a handicap?

    Apart possibly from the drop in Tory support, those changes are all well within MOE.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    We see how perilously the SNP are sitting on tiny majorities, such a small swing to Labour costing them seven seats. There's one party that won't be voting for a GE any time soon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    The poll is Good for Yes AND Bad for Yes?

    PB: Fair 'n Balanced!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    2) This is a really shocking poll for the Unionists, at the start of the last indyref No had a much larger leader which was whittled away by voting day, a six point lead won’t be sufficient if the next indyref campaign follows a similar to the last one.

    This is the same basic fallacy that some Labour supporters are making at the moment: the larger your poll share, the harder it is to make headway.

    Many Corbynistas claim that "it doesn't matter we are level in the polls, last time we were 20 points behind and we will won" (ignoring the fact that, actually, they didn't). To move themselves from 40% to 45% will be much harder than moving from 25% to 40%.

    (as an aside, I went to check the wiki page for the vote shares. On the summary layout the Lib Dems are on the second line, alongside the DUP and SF, while the three big parties are on the top line. That must really sting :smile: )

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    edited December 5
    @TheScreamingEagles

    TSE - just to let you know I chatted to your friend Karen Bradley last night (about schools, children and the fact that she rat runs down my street). She's surprisingly nice and down to earth for a cabinet minister.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    IanB2 said:

    We see how perilously the SNP are sitting on tiny majorities, such a small swing to Labour costing them seven seats. There's one party that won't be voting for a GE any time soon.

    Four have majorities in double figures! It only takes a political sparrow fart to take them to 31 seats.

    Just four out of a hundred of the Scottish population moving from SNP to Labour leaves the SNP seriously denuded as a Westminster political force. Much more than that and they become the Party of Dundee....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    Smith seems to be challenging Root fro his 'Craptain' title after failing to enforce the follow on, and not reviewing Cook's plump lbw...
    England in with a faint shout, requiring the small matter of 354 to win (which would be their highest fourth innings winning total in history).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    If only we'd bowled line and length in the first innings, we could be running away with this test.
    Root's decision to bat first seems pretty well vindicated...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Also worth noting is that, Stirling aside, the other 12 Conservative seats in Scotland don't appear in the first column of Scottish marginals.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Hmmmm.....

    "In the last decade, England have been set 350+ to win 15 times. Not only have they never won, they've never got within 100 of the target."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Not great work from the Aussies on using their reviews....

    Heh!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Does suggest that politics is extremely volatrile at the moment, especially in Scotland. A 1 or 2% shift in VI’s could result in all sorts of changes.

    I think an AV Thread...... or even better, a PR one...... is indicated.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,157
    As a good patriotic Briton I am very open to the suggestion that we are in some superior to the French. I think I'd need stronger evidence than the numbers that report presents though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,540
    Bother; Cook’s out! 53-1
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321

    Not great work from the Aussies on using their reviews....

    Heh!

    That is your fault.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Feels weird cheering England wickets
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,177

    As a good patriotic Briton I am very open to the suggestion that we are in some superior to the French. I think I'd need stronger evidence than the numbers that report presents though.
    PISA is the accepted standard in international educational comparisons

    however the crux of the article is more about the direction of travel ( down ) than the actual scores
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,177
    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    On topic I think SLAB would be very disappointed if they only won 7 additional seats at the next election. If they do then Labour's chances of being the largest party in Westminster will be much reduced.

    Conversely, I suspect the SNP would be pretty chuffed to finish with twice the seats of the next largest party. The wind is not in their sails at the moment and that would be a good result.

    After being in a glacier for a considerable period Scottish politics has been incredibly volatile of late. A change such as that indicated here would be almost dull by comparison to recent times.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    Yes rises as the SNP seat count falls. Looks like the unionists are getting their tactics sorted.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,177

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    Varadkar has a problem. The DUP are just as happy to cut their nose off to spite their face and if a no deal means the RoI suffers too they'll see that as a win.

    For all their faults the DUP are probably one of the hardest set of negotiators in Europe as they have lots more experience and they are quite happy to ignore veryone else's views to get what they want.

    Varadkar ignored Kenny's advice and is now on a steep learning curve

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/tone-down-the-rhetoric-to-help-secure-a-deal-kenny-36376054.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    Varadkar has a problem. The DUP are just as happy to cut their nose off to spite their face and if a no deal means the RoI suffers too they'll see that as a win.

    For all their faults the DUP are probably one of the hardest set of negotiators in Europe as they have lots more experience and they are quite happy to ignore veryone else's views to get what they want.

    Varadkar ignored Kenny's advice and is now on a steep learning curve

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/tone-down-the-rhetoric-to-help-secure-a-deal-kenny-36376054.html
    This comes back to a difficult question for the Irish: is it better to have a legitimised border in a structured settlement or a delegitimised border and no settlement? There's a perfectly good political case for the second, despite the economic consequences.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    edited December 5

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    It seems that Customs in the Irish Sea is not that unpopular.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Yes, another wicket!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    Time for a captain's innings, Mr Root.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    Anyway, the Taoiseach doesn't have a point. He was negotiating with a highly unstable partner. Of course the question whether it could be sold to key factions on the other side should have been within his remit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    It seems that Customs in the Irish Sea is not that unpopular.

    Probably the UK as a whole would vote the same way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 5
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.

    My Betfair account started with a tenner about seven years ago. If Australia lose this match it will have a tenner in it once again.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,177

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    Varadkar has a problem. The DUP are just as happy to cut their nose off to spite their face and if a no deal means the RoI suffers too they'll see that as a win.

    For all their faults the DUP are probably one of the hardest set of negotiators in Europe as they have lots more experience and they are quite happy to ignore veryone else's views to get what they want.

    Varadkar ignored Kenny's advice and is now on a steep learning curve

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/tone-down-the-rhetoric-to-help-secure-a-deal-kenny-36376054.html
    This comes back to a difficult question for the Irish: is it better to have a legitimised border in a structured settlement or a delegitimised border and no settlement? There's a perfectly good political case for the second, despite the economic consequences.
    the NI poll sentiment was for no trade border and a people border between the UK and Ireland

    there's probably more flexibility than people imagine but it isnt going to come out by pushing the locals in to corners and hardening positions. Worse Varadkar has tried the age old tactic of going over the Nordies heads to Westminster and thinking they dont count. He clearly didnt do the sums.

    Varadkar can now either stick to his position and force a hard Brexit or quietly back off and let fudge do its work. I'd like to think the latter but time to date has shown he's an eejit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321

    Anyway, the Taoiseach doesn't have a point. He was negotiating with a highly unstable partner. Of course the question whether it could be sold to key factions on the other side should have been within his remit.

    Correct. The art of negotiation is to find a way to yes and that includes working out what the other side can deliver.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    edited December 5
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,177

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    It seems that Customs in the Irish Sea is not that unpopular.

    Oh Dear

    reduced to quoting a voodoo poll

    you can vote in it yourself if that makes you feel better
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    It seems that Customs in the Irish Sea is not that unpopular.

    Probably the UK as a whole would vote the same way.
    Staying in the Customs Union would greatly simplify the Channel border as well as the Irish border.

    Its not as if our trade negotiators look up to much.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,177

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    for the first time I saw the look of fear in Varadkar;s eyes, he could havve lleft well alone instead has invited the madmen to the table and they dont give a shit about what he thinks
    That's a pretty apt description of the Conservative Leave faction. Though I'm not sure the Taoiseach had the option of leaving them alone.
    It seems that Customs in the Irish Sea is not that unpopular.

    Probably the UK as a whole would vote the same way.
    Staying in the Customs Union would greatly simplify the Channel border as well as the Irish border.

    Its not as if our trade negotiators look up to much.
    look on the bright side

    the British and Irish governements have invited the DUP to negotiate for them. Sinn Fein cant be far behind. This could take decades
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,729
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    That person would be a man reviled for all seasons.

    He would have to Bolt from this thread.

    Incidentally the Aussie batting was pathetic. That scorecard looks like Leicestershire 2nd XI in an extraordinary injury crisis where they can only play bowlers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 5
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    That person would be a man reviled for all seasons.

    He would have to Bolt from this thread.

    Incidentally the Aussie batting was pathetic. That scorecard looks like Leicestershire 2nd XI in an extraordinary injury crisis where they can only play bowlers.
    There is nothing More to be said about it.

    I fear England will indeed lose this test but if they can get to 250+ they will give themselves some self belief going forward both with the bat and the ball.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 8,837
    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Hard to believe that the Labour leader supporting the English football team isn't going to be a handicap?

    Apart possibly from the drop in Tory support, those changes are all well within MOE.

    It's almost like Scotland isn't filled with xenophobic twats.

    The English press desire to make a thing out of Leonard's place of birth was hilarious, you could just tell how furious they were that no one in Scotland gave a shit about Leonard being honest.
  • Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 7,729
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    That person would be a man reviled for all seasons.

    He would have to Bolt from this thread.

    Incidentally the Aussie batting was pathetic. That scorecard looks like Leicestershire 2nd XI in an extraordinary injury crisis where they can only play bowlers.
    There is nothing More to be said about it.

    I fear England will indeed lose this test but if they can get to 250+ they will give themselves some self belief going forward both with the bat and the ball.
    That's Rich coming from you.

    If England lose it doesn't matter if they have self belief or not. They will lose the series.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 5

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. NorthWales, hmm.
  • Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?
    More likely just walks away
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    Never attribute to malice something that can be explained by incompetence.
  • Jonathan said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    Never attribute to malice something that can be explained by incompetence.
    Malice is in the EU''s DNA
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    That person would be a man reviled for all seasons.

    He would have to Bolt from this thread.

    Incidentally the Aussie batting was pathetic. That scorecard looks like Leicestershire 2nd XI in an extraordinary injury crisis where they can only play bowlers.
    There is nothing More to be said about it.

    I fear England will indeed lose this test but if they can get to 250+ they will give themselves some self belief going forward both with the bat and the ball.
    That's Rich coming from you.

    If England lose it doesn't matter if they have self belief or not. They will lose the series.
    Always liked this one and it seems apposite:

    "“RICH I’m lamenting. I’ve lost my innocence.

    CROMWELL You lost that some time ago. If you’ve only just noticed, it can’t have been very important to you.”

    Just a brilliant play.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351

    Jonathan said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    Never attribute to malice something that can be explained by incompetence.
    Malice is in the EU''s DNA
    Incompetence is in the DNA of this administration.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 12,701
    Morning all,

    Well, it is all going swimmingly isn't it?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    Oh dear ! HYUFD will not like this poll. Only yesterday he said there was no poll to back up Labour winning seats in Scotland.
    Hear no evil, see....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321

    Morning all,

    Well, it is all going swimmingly isn't it?

    The loss of the second wicket wasn't great.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
    Now we're in the era of drop in wickets, it's not entirely unfeasible. I'd put England's chances somewhere between one in fifteen and one in twenty....
    What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame. :smile:
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    This is exactly what happened. Looking at the tweets from Sadiq Khan, the SNP, and Irish Govt, they all seem very co-ordinated.

    Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).

    Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.

    It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.

    All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    TonyE said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    This is exactly what happened. Looking at the tweets from Sadiq Khan, the SNP, and Irish Govt, they all seem very co-ordinated.

    Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).

    Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.

    It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.

    All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.
    Time to call the EU's bluff.
    I voted remain, and regard the case for leave as delusional, but that does not mean I support capitulation. I have a certain amount of sympathy for the Irish government; that does not extend to delegating ours to them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    TonyE said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    This is exactly what happened. Looking at the tweets from Sadiq Khan, the SNP, and Irish Govt, they all seem very co-ordinated.

    Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).

    Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.

    It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.

    All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.
    Yup. Which is why if the PM says f*** this there’s no deal, she’ll almost certainly have the support of her party.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874
    TonyE said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    This is exactly what happened. Looking at the tweets from Sadiq Khan, the SNP, and Irish Govt, they all seem very co-ordinated.

    Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).

    Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.

    It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.

    All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.

    Surprised no-one in the UK government is saying this, then - on or off the record. If May was set up it seems strange she did a joint statement with Juncker and expressed confidence that a deal would be done.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 5
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
    Now we're in the era of drop in wickets, it's not entirely unfeasible. I'd put England's chances somewhere between one in fifteen and one in twenty....
    What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame. :smile:
    The current lay price on the convicts is 1.15, and the back on England is 8. And I’ve committed the cardinal sin of betting which is to have run out of money.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874
    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 5
    Even on this poll then the SNP would have double the number of MPs Labour would, Labour really need to win most seats in Scotland again to be sure of avoiding reliance on SNP confidence and supply otherwise they will have to have a lead of almost 10% in England and Wales over the Tories to get an overall majority. Ruth Davidson is staying in Scotland where she is of best use to the Tories, she has no interest in moving to Westminster.

    The Survation independence poll giving No a 6% lead is exactly the same as their final 2014 indyref poll confirming Brexit has made zero difference either way to prospects for Scottish independence.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884
    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    This is exactly what happened. Looking at the tweets from Sadiq Khan, the SNP, and Irish Govt, they all seem very co-ordinated.

    Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).

    Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.

    It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.

    All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.
    Yup. Which is why if the PM says f*** this there’s no deal, she’ll almost certainly have the support of her party.
    And that would be a bit of a disaster in the short term, so the EU must be very certain that it can reach its objective. How could it be so sure?
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    She agreed a deal, Gavin Barwell did get the DUP on board. What was reported out of the talks did not reflect what was agreed.

    Why was that?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,371

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    It's similar to what happened when the agreement with the DUP was made following the General Election in which the Tories lost their majority. That agreement was also announced by May prematurely with the DUP saying that there was no agreement yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    surbiton said:

    Oh dear ! HYUFD will not like this poll. Only yesterday he said there was no poll to back up Labour winning seats in Scotland.
    Hear no evil, see....

    As posted below even this poll makes negligible difference to Labour chances of an overall majority when the SNP still has double the number of Labour seats
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    It's similar to what happened when the agreement with the DUP was made following the General Election in which the Tories lost their majority. That agreement was also announced by May prematurely with the DUP saying that there was no agreement yet.
    I am not sure that we need conspiracy theories to explain why this government messes up most that it touches?
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    It's similar to what happened when the agreement with the DUP was made following the General Election in which the Tories lost their majority. That agreement was also announced by May prematurely with the DUP saying that there was no agreement yet.
    But in that case, the DUP clearly played a blinder. They wanted more, so they just reneged and pushed a little harder. They thought they could get it. This time, the shoe is clearly on the other foot because they have so much to lose from a hard border.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal.
    You were in the room were you?

    Pro-EU MP Anna Soubry told journalists outside the Westminster committee room that MPs were “given the impression” that no offer had been forthcoming from the U.K. on regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    She said MPs were told: “Nothing had certainly been agreed, but nothing had been ruled out either.”

    “Nobody could want one part of our country to have a different set of rules to another part of our country,” said Soubry, who has called for the government to avoid such trade-offs by keeping the whole of the U.K. inside the single market and the customs union.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/arlene-foster-theresa-may-brexit-northern-irelands-dup-derail-theresa-mays-trip-to-brussels
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
    Now we're in the era of drop in wickets, it's not entirely unfeasible. I'd put England's chances somewhere between one in fifteen and one in twenty....
    What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame. :smile:
    The current lay price on the convicts is 1.15, and the back on England is 8. And I’ve committed the cardinal sin of betting which is to have run out of money.
    Bit of a sticky wicket.
    Particularly if we bat through the next session without loss.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    This is exactly what happened. Looking at the tweets from Sadiq Khan, the SNP, and Irish Govt, they all seem very co-ordinated.

    Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).

    Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.

    It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.

    All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.
    Yup. Which is why if the PM says f*** this there’s no deal, she’ll almost certainly have the support of her party.
    More importantly, she would have the support of the country.

    "I have just saved the UK £50 billion" she could say. "Or £100 billion, if you read pb.com threads....."
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874
    TonyE said:

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    She agreed a deal, Gavin Barwell did get the DUP on board. What was reported out of the talks did not reflect what was agreed.

    Why was that?

    Because May is not very good at her job. She has been demonstrating this simple fact for the last year.

  • Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    The deal was leaked by the EU at about 9.30 am and before TM had even arrived in Brussels.

    The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
    Now we're in the era of drop in wickets, it's not entirely unfeasible. I'd put England's chances somewhere between one in fifteen and one in twenty....
    What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame. :smile:
    The current lay price on the convicts is 1.15, and the back on England is 8. And I’ve committed the cardinal sin of betting which is to have run out of money.
    Bit of a sticky wicket.
    Particularly if we bat through the next session without loss.....
    But that will require a level of both skill and luck not demonstrated by England to date.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 5
    TonyE said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    This is exactly what happened. Looking at the tweets from Sadiq Khan, the SNP, and Irish Govt, they all seem very co-ordinated.

    Quite clearly there was an agreement with the DUP on certain sectoral issues, SPS, Customs processing - issues where the entire UK could agree to align with current EU regulation. The EU went into the meeting with the intention on the table of accepting this, and had signalled this in advance (we know these things are always agreed partly in advance).

    Then at the 11th hour, they issue 'leaks' that the agreement is "SM&CU" for NI - something they know is patently untrue and could never be agreed by the DUP. Sky News gets it early and Faisal Isalam interviews a Green MEP, who confirms this. Varadkar then gets his kick in, and Khan and Sturgeon issue their 'Break up the UK' tweets and statements. DUP had no choice but to kill the deal, even though they know that's not what they agreed to nor was presented.

    It's the most transparent Divide and Rule tactic possible, yet the press don't question the time line at all.

    All the events yesterday suggest the EU's negotiating aim is EURef 2 and a potential reversal, via removing the Tory Govt and working with a rainbow coalition led by Labour.
    The EU are deluded if they think Corbyn is going to reverse Brexit and give up the 20% of 2015 UKIP voters he won in June or the third of 2015 Labour voters who voted Leave. If he does bang goes his chances of leading the largest party. Unless Remain has a clear 10%+ lead in every poll Corbyn won't agree any EU ref2, at most he will agree a longer transition period than May.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546

    TonyE said:

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    She agreed a deal, Gavin Barwell did get the DUP on board. What was reported out of the talks did not reflect what was agreed.

    Why was that?

    Because May is not very good at her job. She has been demonstrating this simple fact for the last year.

    That is, of course, true.
    But it does not mean that we should applaud the behaviour of the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
    Now we're in the era of drop in wickets, it's not entirely unfeasible. I'd put England's chances somewhere between one in fifteen and one in twenty....
    What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame. :smile:
    The current lay price on the convicts is 1.15, and the back on England is 8. And I’ve committed the cardinal sin of betting which is to have run out of money.
    Bit of a sticky wicket.
    Particularly if we bat through the next session without loss.....
    But that will require a level of both skill and luck not demonstrated by England to date.
    Well we managed to demonstrate both in Australia's second innnings....

  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884

    TonyE said:

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    She agreed a deal, Gavin Barwell did get the DUP on board. What was reported out of the talks did not reflect what was agreed.

    Why was that?

    Because May is not very good at her job. She has been demonstrating this simple fact for the last year.

    To believe that, you'd have to believe that the entire higher echelon of the civil service were equally stupid. They designed the solution - govt's don't do that - they don't have the detail competence. Govt just sets the objectives.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    The deal was leaked by the EU at about 9.30 am and before TM had even arrived in Brussels.

    The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal
    The EU really are shit at negotiating.... If the UK walks out on WTO terms, they will only have themselves to blame. And £50 billion to find.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    You're stuck in one of your catchy phrase grooves again.

    But I'd suggest playing politics with phrases like 'The Orange Order' is very, very silly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
    Now we're in the era of drop in wickets, it's not entirely unfeasible. I'd put England's chances somewhere between one in fifteen and one in twenty....
    What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame. :smile:
    The current lay price on the convicts is 1.15, and the back on England is 8. And I’ve committed the cardinal sin of betting which is to have run out of money.
    Bit of a sticky wicket.
    Particularly if we bat through the next session without loss.....
    But that will require a level of both skill and luck not demonstrated by England to date.
    Well we managed to demonstrate both in Australia's second innnings....

    Not with the bat though....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    The deal was leaked by the EU at about 9.30 am and before TM had even arrived in Brussels.

    The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal

    Yep - May called the DUP to get their prrmission and they did not give it so the deal was not done.

    But I suspect it will be sorted. There’ll be a new form of words and the Orange Order will sign off on the basis that the alternative is worse. We should not lose sight of the general trajectory - we’re heading to a deal that will be to the softer end of the prism. And that is good news.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, another wicket!

    There is a word for people like you. Its not a polite one either.
    It’s someone who’s got a bag of sand (and change) on the convicts at 1.12.
    It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales a bag of sand?
    I put all but a tenner of my whole damn Betfair balance on this, at what was probably the lowest price of the match yesterday morning.

    Feels very weird cheering for the other side, but I still think the tenth highest run chase of all time, and the third time a team failing to enforce the follow-on lost, is unlikely to come off.
    Now we're in the era of drop in wickets, it's not entirely unfeasible. I'd put England's chances somewhere between one in fifteen and one in twenty....
    What are the odds to lay your bet ? You could at least then post without shame. :smile:
    The current lay price on the convicts is 1.15, and the back on England is 8. And I’ve committed the cardinal sin of betting which is to have run out of money.
    Bit of a sticky wicket.
    Particularly if we bat through the next session without loss.....
    But that will require a level of both skill and luck not demonstrated by England to date.
    Well we managed to demonstrate both in Australia's second innnings....

    Not with the bat though....
    It would have been an odd time to do that.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal.
    You were in the room were you?

    Pro-EU MP Anna Soubry told journalists outside the Westminster committee room that MPs were “given the impression” that no offer had been forthcoming from the U.K. on regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    She said MPs were told: “Nothing had certainly been agreed, but nothing had been ruled out either.”

    “Nobody could want one part of our country to have a different set of rules to another part of our country,” said Soubry, who has called for the government to avoid such trade-offs by keeping the whole of the U.K. inside the single market and the customs union.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/arlene-foster-theresa-may-brexit-northern-irelands-dup-derail-theresa-mays-trip-to-brussels

    As far as I can see, the article you linked to quotes a senior British negotiator as saying the DUP caused the talks to collapse.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    You're stuck in one of your catchy phrase grooves again.

    But I'd suggest playing politics with phrases like 'The Orange Order' is very, very silly.

    I agree. They should not have a veto, but they do. That said, it’s clear a deal will be done. Yesterday was all part of the choreography. New words will be found that allow the party which got 36% of the vote in NI to sign off and which give May the opportunity to claim she has wrung important concessions out of the EU27, and we’ll move to Phase Two. But the days of Cake And Eat It are over. What we know for certain now is that Mrs May will concede plenty to get a deal because she knows that No Deal would be a disaster. It turns out the UK does not hold all the cards.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,370

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    The deal was leaked by the EU at about 9.30 am and before TM had even arrived in Brussels.

    The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal

    Yep - May called the DUP to get their prrmission and they did not give it so the deal was not done.

    But I suspect it will be sorted. There’ll be a new form of words and the Orange Order will sign off on the basis that the alternative is worse. We should not lose sight of the general trajectory - we’re heading to a deal that will be to the softer end of the prism. And that is good news.

    Knock it off with the Orange Order thing. It's inaccurate and tiresome.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339

    But I suspect it will be sorted. There’ll be a new form of words and the Orange Order will sign off on the basis that the alternative is worse. We should not lose sight of the general trajectory - we’re heading to a deal that will be to the softer end of the prism. And that is good news.

    How will she get it past the batshit crazies on her own benches?

    @PolhomeEditor: Former Brexit minister David Jones says the phrase “regulatory alignment” should not be included in any deal. What a mess.
  • Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Hard to believe that the Labour leader supporting the English football team isn't going to be a handicap?

    Apart possibly from the drop in Tory support, those changes are all well within MOE.

    It's almost like Scotland isn't filled with xenophobic twats.

    The English press desire to make a thing out of Leonard's place of birth was hilarious, you could just tell how furious they were that no one in Scotland gave a shit about Leonard being honest.
    Some SNP people including an MSP and MP managed to make themselves look like idiots over Leonard’s birthplace.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    The deal was leaked by the EU at about 9.30 am and before TM had even arrived in Brussels.

    The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal
    The EU really are shit at negotiating.... If the UK walks out on WTO terms, they will only have themselves to blame. And £50 billion to find.
    Yup. They’re about to overplay a strong hand.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @Ed_Miliband: What an absolutely ludicrous, incompetent, absurd, make it up as you go along, couldn’t run a piss up in a brewery bunch of jokers there are running the government at the most critical time in a generation for the country.

    Fine words, Ed. Sadly, not Labour policy...

    @Maomentum_: Clear now that Tory Brexit is causing economic and political instability and that is why we in @UKLabour continue to fully support it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    The deal was leaked by the EU at about 9.30 am and before TM had even arrived in Brussels.

    The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal
    The EU really are shit at negotiating.... If the UK walks out on WTO terms, they will only have themselves to blame. And £50 billion to find.
    Yeah, they are 3 nil up at the end of the first innings. They are not very good at this negotiating game are they?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874
    Nigelb said:

    TonyE said:

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    She agreed a deal, Gavin Barwell did get the DUP on board. What was reported out of the talks did not reflect what was agreed.

    Why was that?

    Because May is not very good at her job. She has been demonstrating this simple fact for the last year.

    That is, of course, true.
    But it does not mean that we should applaud the behaviour of the EU.

    I think we could well discover that the EU27 have actually done May a bit of a favour. She’ll have the opportunity now to sell the deal agreed as a win. That actually works well for everyone.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    You're stuck in one of your catchy phrase grooves again.

    But I'd suggest playing politics with phrases like 'The Orange Order' is very, very silly.

    I agree. They should not have a veto, but they do. That said, it’s clear a deal will be done. Yesterday was all part of the choreography. New words will be found that allow the party which got 36% of the vote in NI to sign off and which give May the opportunity to claim she has wrung important concessions out of the EU27, and we’ll move to Phase Two. But the days of Cake And Eat It are over. What we know for certain now is that Mrs May will concede plenty to get a deal because she knows that No Deal would be a disaster. It turns out the UK does not hold all the cards.

    That is the hand which the voters dealt the politicians, in June.

    It's plain that the DUP's concerns are shared by many Conservatives.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Dr. Foxinsox, you only 'win' at the end of a process.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal.
    You were in the room were you?

    Pro-EU MP Anna Soubry told journalists outside the Westminster committee room that MPs were “given the impression” that no offer had been forthcoming from the U.K. on regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    She said MPs were told: “Nothing had certainly been agreed, but nothing had been ruled out either.”

    “Nobody could want one part of our country to have a different set of rules to another part of our country,” said Soubry, who has called for the government to avoid such trade-offs by keeping the whole of the U.K. inside the single market and the customs union.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/arlene-foster-theresa-may-brexit-northern-irelands-dup-derail-theresa-mays-trip-to-brussels

    As far as I can see, the article you linked to quotes a senior British negotiator as saying the DUP caused the talks to collapse
    MRDA

    Also...the Irish government of a leaking a draft text of the agreement, branding the move “propaganda for a United Ireland.”
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422

    Dr. Foxinsox, you only 'win' at the end of a process.

    If only Leavers had realised that last June.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874

    Sandpit said:

    Something does not add up with yesterday's events. Reporting this morning the Conservative Party is fully aligned with the DUP includimg all remainers and leavers.

    If that is the case did TM chance her arm or was she set up by the Irish Government and the EU

    If it was the former I would suggest she will have a leadership challenge very soon

    She was set up by the EU and their Remanian friends in the media, as usual.

    How long before she decides she can’t be bothered with all this and walks away to WTO?

    She agreed a deal. The DUP blocked it. That’s what happened. The Orange Order is dictating British foreign policy via a party that got 36% of the vote in Northern Ireland in June.

    The deal was leaked by the EU at about 9.30 am and before TM had even arrived in Brussels.

    The EU had all their press conferences lined up in a row but it was only when the text was discussed between Junckers and May that May interupted the lunch and spoke to the DUP. It is fair to assume that she saw the dangers and post the DUP call stopped the deal
    The EU really are shit at negotiating.... If the UK walks out on WTO terms, they will only have themselves to blame. And £50 billion to find.
    Yeah, they are 3 nil up at the end of the first innings. They are not very good at this negotiating game are they?

    This is the scenario: the DUP got to say No yesterday, May got to reject a deal and stand next to Juncker as he said what a tough negotiator she is. Now a new form of words will be crafted and we’ll move to Phase Two. The DUP and May can say they got concessions; the EU27 will have what they want. Everybody wins. The bottom line is that behind all the fog, the UK government has finally accepted it has a tremendously weak hand because there is no realistic case in which No Deal is an option. There will be a Brexit deal and it will be under the terms the EU27 dictate. Not being vindictive and wanting to retain good relations, however, the EU27 will enable both May and the DUP to save some face. It’s all good news - except for the extremists on both sides of the ausle.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    Ooh, there goes Vince.
This discussion has been closed.