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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-CON leadership favourite, DDavis, slips to just 6.6% chance

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-CON leadership favourite, DDavis, slips to just 6.6% chance on Betfair

.@ChukaUmunna has written to the Speaker to initiate contempt proceedings against @DavidDavisMP for telling MPs in October Brexit impact assessments were being made, when in fact – according to Davis’s testimony today – no such risk assessments have been made

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Second! Like the Cons next time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    David Davis couldn't negotiate a discount at DFS.

    The idea that the country's future rests on his shoulders is terrifying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,546
    Isn't the (perhaps unconvincing.........) line that there were sectoral assessment, just not impact assessments.
    I think the excruciating detail got lost somewhere along the ough perhaps DD finds anything beyond a single sheet of A4 excruciating ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806


    “Assessment” of 51 Sectors
    “Impact” on individual nations of the U.K......

    People haven’t been listening carefully enough.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    David Davis is technically what people describe as totally bloody useless. Tragic that the Tory party has hitched it's and the nations fortunes to his talents.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    For TSE - proving conclusively that Caesar was a better general than Hannibal (but that Napoleon was better than both):

    https://medium.com/@ethanarsht/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 6
    Biggest ever 'golden goodbye' paid to Bath Spa University's vice-Chancellor as she earns £808,000 in final year of office

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/06/biggest-ever-golden-goodbye-paid-bath-spa-universitys-vice-chancellor/

    What the actual f##k...one of the crappiest universities in the country paid off the outgoing vice chancellor this much. I wonder all those £9k fees are going?
  • In a way, Davis is right. It doesn't matter what the impact assessments say, or would have said if they existed. The referendum instructed the Government to implement Brexit, regardless of impact.

    Democracy, innit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253


    Is that the name of their Brazilian striker?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,144
    Just had dinner with a friend from uni, now at ETH. He's working on the concept of negative mass. Apparently it could lead to warp drive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    Is it just me or has vanilla quote stopped working?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    It's very hard to determine who was best.

    Napoleon was a military genius, who committed dreadful political errors.

    Frederick the Great was a much less successful general, who was a political genius.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    @Peter_the_punter:

    Had this crap government completed the impact assessments it said it was doing, they may well have helped decide what type of Brexit was acceptable.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 398
    DD at least looks and behaves ministerial until now unlike Johnson but surely the game is up for Brexit.

    The false prospectus that Leave campaigned on has been utterly tested to destruction. We will not get £350 million for the NHS but have to pay tens of billions into the EU. Mass Immigration will still continue because the UK needs to expand its notional economy and population to counter the fundamental demographic changes that are only just beginning. You cannot keep paying pensions out if your working population is declining nor keep spending on the NHS with its ever increasing demand. I used to be very sceptical of the EU and very anti - immigration until I worked out why mass Immigration will have to continue. The choice at the referendum being about stopping Turkish immigrants was another falsehood. All exiting the EU will mean is less white, European immigrants who are Christian or non religious in exchange for Immigrants from countries that are non Christian and indeed maybe Muslim. The difference being the Muslim countries post Brexit we encourage to migrate to the UK maybe more open to radicalisation in the future than a hypothetical entry by Turkey to the EU would ever have been. It is now my understanding that Turkey has little chance of ever meeting even the criteria to join the EU never mind actually becoming an accession state.

    The sheer contradiction at the heart of Brexit is that "we do not need" the EU yet to avoid massive damage to the economy we have to negotiate a new trading relationship with the EU. The reliance on Europe in the past and in the future is not going to disappear however much Leave supporters protest. They have mislead the public on the difficulty in negotiating new trading relationships with other states in the world unless we yield to other states negotiating position. In other words the desperate and seemingly one-sided negotiations that the UK are currently involved in will be replicated with other large economies with the same outcome, which will not be an optimal trading relationship for the UK. We will have signed away any competitive advantage we may have had because we will be perceived to be on our uppers.

    I see IDS has said we should just walk away as a country and not try for a deal even with the elite Leavers in the cabinet functioning in all the relevant positions for exiting the EU. The only thing I say to a premier league arsehole like IDS is that it is time to walk away from Brexit altogether. We have tried to play the Brexit game using the most vociferous advocates of the Brexit strategy in the Conservative party and government for 18 months and have capitulated to the EU on almost everything. This process is patently unresolvable and the UK should quit A50 immediately.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    Not sure if this has been posted, but IF it is true, I might revise my assessment of the deal (exc NI).

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-will-not-pay-lump-sum-brexit-bill-according-to-draft-eu-uk-brexit-agreement/

    There are a few things in here that are more favourable to the UK:

    1. ECJ referrals not binding and subject to an overall sunset clause. Having 'due regard' to ECJ laws and a voluntary and non binding referral system may just be on the right side of the red line.
    2. UK insists on an explicit link between financial offer and trade deal.
    3. UK has not agreed percentage of EU budget that it will cover, so flexibility to trade this off against the trade deal in stage 2.

    Unfortunately, agreeing regulatory alignment is an absolute red line and a deal killer. Wondering if the EU now regret letting Varadkar out of his box.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    I believe I called it a couple of weeks back: Redacted blank sheets of paper

    (Of course at the time I didn't realise that I was being serious!)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    @archer101au:

    Re "Wondering if the EU now regret letting Varadkar out of his box."

    You seem not to have noticed that it's not the EU that is currently in meltdown but the UK Government. (And I am sure Varadkar does not need the EU's permission to speak.)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    Benpointer. Same for me. Cannot quote at all but can still post directly.

    Actually probably quite good as it makes me draw breath before replying to some postings and restrain my language somewhat.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    The_Taxman.

    What price democracy?

    "Oh we know you wanted to do this but we have made a half hearted and completely cack handed attempt and now because of our own incompetence we have decided to ignore you"

    You really want people to lose what last shreds of faith they have in our political system? The alternatives are not pretty at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    edited December 6
    @SandyRentool:

    I have exclusive access to the unredacted documents. The following text is repeatedly redacted:

    "Results of impact assessment to go in here. Results of impact assessment to go in here. Results of impact..."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 4,979
    Pesto has accidentally added 's', 'y' and 'dinner' to that tweet.
  • Richard_Tyndall.

    You seem to be forgetting that Remainers know better than the voters. How silly of you.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    @Richard_Tyndall: It's not the same without the spontaneous 'you'.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    Ben you say the sweetest things :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    @Scott_P - bit like the SNP legal advice on EU membership then......at least the government didn’t spend a small fortune on lawyers trying to pretend it was there.....unlike the SNP....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    The Commons Committee in question has clearly voted that Davis did not commit contempt because he refused to release forecasts on Brexit rather than just sectoral analyses.

    No mention in this thread anywhere that of the 4 currently ahead of Davis in the betting, Rees-Mogg, Leadsom, Boris and Rudd in that order, 3 are even firmer Brexiteers than Davis.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    edited December 6
    @CarlottaVance: Really!!? These numpties have picked today of all days as an auspicious one to launch another 'Davis for PM' bid?! Daily Mash material, surely?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    He's got a point...

    @DuncanWeldon: Lack of Brexit impact assessments is staggering. Just really sinking in for me.
    This matters to the economy more than any budget, but imagine if the Chancellor announced a load of tax changes and said “nah, we haven’t modelled this. It’ll be fine”.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    Ben Stokes and Alex Hales have been named in England's one-day squad for the five-match series against Australia in the new year.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    It's very hard to determine who was best.

    Napoleon was a military genius, who committed dreadful political errors.

    Frederick the Great was a much less successful general, who was a political genius.

    Napoleon was a political genius too (indeed, one of his great legacies lies in domestic French politics), but wasn't an able diplomatist - but then that's not all that surprising if you think you can always fight yourself out of a tight spot.

    Interesting that Wellington came third - that two of the top three in a list spanning two and a half centuries or so were born in the same year and ultimately faced each other.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    @steve_garner: Remainers and voters are not two mutually exclusive sets, just saying.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847
    Brexit is definetely happening. There is no way that the decision will be reversed.

    It is just happening entirely on the EU's terms. We will probably end up being in the single market in all but name, subject to its rules albeit without being an active participant in it, and gaining few of the benefits.

    Whatever leverage we had, we squandered through hubris.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    edited December 6
    @HYUFD: Boris only a firm Brexiter until the next time he flips.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    edited December 6
    nielh No we will not, ending free movement is clearly non negotiable and that is the key reason we will not end up in the single market whatever other concessions we make for a FTA
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 3,937
    "Interesting that Wellington came third - that two of the top three in a list spanning two and a half centuries or so were born in the same year and ultimately faced each other." Same with Arkle and Mill House.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    OT.

    Not saying that I am the Messiah (just a very naughty boy) but there is a chance that, after 40 days and 40 nights working away from home on a contract, I might actually get home to see my family tomorrow. The next few hours will tell...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    Volkswagen executive goes to jail......in the US.....

    http://fortune.com/2017/12/06/oliver-schmidt-vw-emissions-cheating
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    edited December 6
    nielh said:
    Whatever leverage we had, we squandered through hubris.
    AA Gill was a prophet

    Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

    When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    @Richard_Tyndall: Here's hoping Storm Caroline doesn't scupper your plans. Flew back from Edinburgh this afternoon and looking at the forcast I'm glad it wasn't tomorrow!
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847
    edited December 6
    HYUFD It strikes me that, by accepting regulatory allignment, we end up being tied in to the single market even if we are not part officially of it. We just become a subservient and diminished player. Whatever deal we are forced to make with the EU will make it bind us in our dealings with everyone else. That is probably what the French want, and others.

    That is the price for ending free movement.

    Had we thought this through a bit better and not got bounced in to triggering article 50, we could have probably got a better outcome.

  • Being even less confident about making any prediction than usual I turn to my own emotions and wonder if they may be echoed at large. I was a lukewarm remainer although I did donate to the crappy campaign and put up a poster. If the EU play too hardball then I will feel bloody minded against 'em. If that feeling is repeated among many of my fellow citizens then the political temperature could change rapidly and it would likely favour the Tories.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    @Scott_P: That AA Gill quote is a classic. I hope he's looking down on (up at?) us and having a good old laugh!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    edited December 6
    Apparently Boris Johnson will 'diagnose the causes of Jihadism' and call for a 'full-spectrum engagement with the Middle East' including 'air strikes, aid and women's education'.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 398
    @Richard_Tyndall:

    People will vote whatever happens. Things move on. Half the country is usually on the losing side and sometimes in the UK the losers have won and vice versa. Nothing new in this.

    The people who wanted Brexit are in the cabinet and negotiating. They have had their turn and have floundered. Politics is based on a dialectical process in the UK. The Brexit/ Leave proposition has been tested. It has shown to be a vacuum with an absence of any substance.

    A general election has ensued since the Brexit vote, I voted Tory despite my reluctance for the party visiting such a ridiculous situation on the country. If I can vote in an election after a decision went the wrong way I am sure others can. Leave told the electorate a crock of shite. I am more worried what will happen if the nutters get their way and have no Brexit deal at all. The pain visited on the economy could be something only normally seen in war time. The Brexit secretary has admitted this. In our darkest hour in the second world war we suspended democracy. Sometimes the people do not make a good decision - Brexit is one of those which is fundamentally flawed. Not even the people who advocate it have any clue on how to deliver it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    @NorthofStoke: It's this fecking useless government that will get the blame not the EU. Governments always get the blame when shit happens - this time they thoroughly deserve it!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    Eight of the 15 nations who are currently members of the UN Security Council have called for the body to hold an urgent meeting on the US decision by the end of the week.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    edited December 6
    That's a gold-plated classic Matt on the Torygraph page posted by williamglenn (10:29pm). Brilliant!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 8,831
    @williamglenn

    For the love of God, can’t Johnson be made Governor of St Helena or somewhere similar where he can do no more harm?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    @Benpointer - the polls suggest blame will be shared between the government and the EU, but not by the electorate who stand behind their decision.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    @The_Taxman

    the idea that the Brexit proposition has been tested is a ludicrous statement that only a die hard Remainer could make.

    There were and are many ways in which Brexit could work but we have the misfortune to have our future being decided by a Remain voting PM who doesn't believe in Brexit and lacks both the competence and the ability to make it work.

    Of course people like you will try to claim this is because of Brexit rather than the idiocy of the people charged with seeing it through but no Leaver is going to give that argumenta minutes consideration and if you use that as an excuse to abandon the whole thing then you really are not going to like the consequences at all. We will still get Brexit but it will be a far more destructive and far more divisive result than you can imagine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970
    edited December 6
    @CarlottaVance: You're right about the electorate not shouldering the blame - but 48% of us are absolutely in the clear! :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 6
    Just catching up, awesome result at Anfield tonight. TSE will be a very happy bunny having been there.

    Oh, and what the hell is David Davis up to?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253


    Too late...the French and Russians have been doing this for ages now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,494
    Good luck @Richard_Tyndall
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    Just catching up, awesome result at Anfield tonight. TSE will be a very happy bunny having been there.

    I am going to guess he was less happy about getting up at 3am to watch the cricket...I did warn him!
  • Has the quote button stopped working ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 1,642
    @Cyclefree

    Sad to say BoJo as Governor of St Helena would probably accidentally insult Ascension Island leading to a military conflict.

  • ' Biggest ever 'golden goodbye' paid to Bath Spa University's vice-Chancellor as she earns £808,000 in final year of office '

    Has she been head hunted by Harvard or Princeton ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    Benpointer No, the government is implementing the FTA that ends free movement which the public voted for. If anyone deserves blame for Brexit it is Blair for failing to introduce transition controls in 2004
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    @FrancisUrquhart
    Eight of the 15 nations who are currently members of the UN Security Council have called for the body to hold an urgent meeting on the US decision by the end of the week.
    --

    I think Trump is right on Jerusalem. The West are just engaged in denial on the Middle East - there is no peace process and the Palestinians probably wasted whatever chance there ever was of a two state solution when they refused to agree to Clinton's solution. Just repeating 'two state solution' over and over again is not going to make it a reality.

    The Arab world probably need to face reality - they tried to destroy Israel, they failed, they lost land in the conflict and they are not getting it back. They were offered a chance at a fair solution and they refused it. The US accepting Jerusalem as capital of Israel may help them realise that they need to deal with reality as it is now, rather than trying to re-wind the clock to where it was 50 years ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    neilh De facto single market membership which ends free movement is fine by me
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    edited December 6
    "Imagine the chancellor making tax changes and saying we haven't modelled it but it'll all be fine."

    tbf that was the Lab strategy at the last GE campaign.
  • ' Napoleon was a military genius, who committed dreadful political errors.

    Frederick the Great was a much less successful general, who was a political genius. '

    I'd say you had FtG the wrong way round - it wasn't political genius that got him fighting Austria, France, Russia, Sweden and Saxony simultaneously.

    But it was military genius which saved him from defeat.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 847
    Taxman, Richard Tyndall

    I've made the point a few times that people on here overestimate how much people are genuinely bothered about Brexit. Who are these millions of people who are going to rise up and get on to the streets to overthrow the government in the event that Brexit isn't delivered? The people who appear to be most angry about Brexit are old men, mainly posting on the internet. Are they really going to turn to violence if the will of the people isn't delivered? Most people don't care. They've got everyday life to be gettin on with.

    The idea that failing to respect the referendum result will turn people against democracy and in to some kind of totalitarian belief system is another red herring. In my view, an equivalent or greater threat to social stability and our current political system is a sharp decline in living standards. People believe in the system as long as it is delivering for them. Corbyn's rise is as a product of failings in jobs, housing and inequality. If we leave the EU and these problems get worse, then that would be more harmful to the the stability of our system, than ignoring the referendum result.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    nielh Leave only won because of immigration, if immigration controls are not delivered that is where the anger will come
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 925
    The quote button has stopped working. I do have some sectoral impact analyses prepared on the matter though.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    @FrancisUrquhart - On the cricket,I noticed today in the post match interviews how the poor lad Root has aged in his face.

    Captaincy not good for him.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 398
    Richard_Tyndall


    What do you think Davis, Johnson and Fox are doing? (I could be unkind and joke)

    The fact is the A50 process is happening and the platform Leave campaigned on has crumbled as have your arguments. You see it is not about Remainer ideas anymore. What is being tested is the platform Leave advocated by politicians who now have collective responsibility for the Brexit process. None of the propositions that Leave articulated have come to pass in the negotiations. Like a bad sportsman you are blaming the tools/ equipment for the failure of the platform you support.

    I am disturbed that you think an economic Dunkirk is a good thing. Leave won on the unusual platform of not being a continuation of the status quo. However, the Leave platform was rooted in falsehood and insane optimism. Sometimes Richard it is better to look at things and realise you might be wrong before the whole edifice crumbles around you. I doubt millions of families who might find their incomes further reduced will find any comfort in your democratic purism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    We stole Ascension Island from the Dutch, to rob anybody trying to liberate Napoleon from St. Helena of a base for operations.
  • PB lefties will be delighted to know that I've made my contribution to reducing the number of people using food banks.

    I've stopped donating to them.

    My thanks to the PB lefties for making me a bit richer.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,623
    Cyclefree: at least Boris is good for a laugh, albeit unintentional ("air strikes and women's education" as the way forward for the Middle East). Davis, while having much more the manner of a statesman, is incompetent in a boring way.

    Incidentally, the line that the assessments were not impact assessments doesn't stand up to scrutiny. The quote found by Umunna clearly implies that they were looking at impact, since the next sentence says they'll ALSO be looking at other kinds of impact. The least evil line is probably to say sorry, the statement may have given the wrong impression, and what is actually happening is ongoing monioring, blah blah.

    But the idea that the Cabinet has embarked on all this without discussing how they'd like it to end is beyond parody: One wouldn't design a bus shelter that way, let alone the country's future..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    edited December 6
    Hmm!

    BoJo seems to think that what the Tory party needs is a few Mid East wars to take our minds off things. Anyone spotting the flaw in the plan?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    @another_richard

    Good plan. We should all be stocking up food stores, what with the four horseman on the way...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,290
    Had enough of Theresa The Appeaser - Tories out!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    I hope the story on Starmer is not as it is being portrayed. I have friends who think he is the last hope for Labour, and if true, will be the end for them in the Party.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 6,749
    Sir Keir Starmer reignites Labour’s anti-Semitic row after inviting charity that praises killing Jewish kids to the Commons

    @TGOHF - I thought labour getting tough on this kind of thing,only the other day they were telling us.

    Emily Thornberry defends Israel and says anti-Semites 'will be drummed out' of the Labour party

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/news/91036/emily-thornberry-defends-israel-and-says-anti-semites-will-be



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    Thankyou Nigel
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    The_Taxman

    I believe they have had their hands completely tied by May. It is she who has laid down all the ground rules for this process from the UK side and it is she who has decided what is, and is not, acceptable to the public. That is not to defend the other ministers but the idea that they have had any real say in this process seems laughable to me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,290
    edited December 6
    That idiot Hammond actually think we should pay some insane $40bln Brexit bill to the EU even if we don't get a deal.

    These people are totally and utterly insane! And this idiot is in control of the nations finances? :open_mouth:

    #ToriesOut
  • ' BoJo seems to think that what the Tory party needs is a few Mid East wars to take our minds off things. Anyone spotting the flaw in the plan? '

    Something like this would have potential and it would allow Ben Stokes to make use of his talents:

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    @archer

    There is much in that but it's a needlessly provocative move from the US. Tel Aviv is well established as the governmental base and the move to Jerusalem is purely symbollic, which is of course the problem.

    I don't have a great deal of sympathy with either side but that's no reason to needlessly stir what's already a volatile situation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 36,073
    GIN1138 Which means Corbyn in, then we really will see hapless government
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Hammond is an enemy of the people.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 10,290
    Hammond is an enemy of the nations finances...
  • This season, Liverpool have had more 7 nil wins than they've had 1 nil wins.
This discussion has been closed.