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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new age of despair in British Brexit politics

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new age of despair in British Brexit politics

For the past two and a half weeks I have been semi detached from British politics being on holiday on the West Coast of the United States. I didn’t take my laptop and my main means of finding out what was happening was with my phone.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    edited December 7
    I disagree with Iain Martin.

    "Anyone injecting a bit of energy and cracking the whip in No 10 and Whitehall would be better than May" ... No. The nutters hold the cards and this is a fight to the death.

    The Spectator podcast is worth a listen, imo.

    Varoufakis: "The tory party has been taken over by radicals"

    Last June, the b*stards came back from the dead.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,525
    The nutters have indeed taken over the asylum. David Davis will forever be associated with that proverbial joke about piss-up and a brewery.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    I think this thread header is overstating things. The Tories still poll fairly well.

    What would do for May I think is if she is unable to seal a deal with the EU.

    On that front progress is being made.
    But ultimately she may need Labour votes to pass a deal.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006
    The quote button is still not working.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    @Pong

    If it had been taken over by radicals - the Tories would have a consistent position and we would be heading for WTO rules full steam ahead.

    The problem as I see it is the radicals have acquired a veto.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,315
    You know, I always thought that Liam Fox was the most incompetent of the Three Brexiteers. He has, after all, completely failed in his remit at DfID, messing around with position papers on "Tariffs for a 21st Century Britain", rather than getting down to the hard grind of replicating the EU's existing trade agreements.

    And Boris, yes he's a clown. But I always thought a pretty bright one.

    David Davis was the one I really respected. A hard working, detail oriented, guy, who'd had a successful career outside politics in both the army and business. A man who'd done a pretty good job as Chief Whip, and was organisationally very strong. But right now, he seems like a man completely lost. The timing of serving Article 50 was our biggest trump card. And we could always have left the EU through the repeal of the European Communities Act. Instead, we appear to have flounced around, with Ms May randomly overruling her ministers, and with little preparation done.

    The EU is not a particularly competent organisation, by and large. (If it was, we probably wouldn't have voted to leave it.) But from that day in 2016, they have prepared hard for Brexit. They have decided what's important to them, what they want, and they have stuck ruthlessly to it.

    Why wasn't this all war gamed before the serving of Article 50? Why weren't the position papers ready?Why do we find ourselves trapped between the promises of politicians to businesses like Nissan, and political realities?

    Leaving was always going to be difficult. But - like Cyclefree - I despair of the people carrying it out. And I despair of their "Shout loudly, but carry absolutely no stick whatsoever" approach.

    Is it time for a change? Yes.

    But it can't be Boris, or David Davis that takes over. It needs someone new, someone smart, and someone unsullied by the failures of the last year.

    Kwasi Kwarteng?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,315

    The quote button is still not working.

    It is for me.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 925
    The barrier to a May assassination has traditionally been the notion that nobody else would do any better. The last week's shenanigans seem to suggest that nobody else could do any worse. Even JRM, who is literally the worst person alive in England today, might have improved on the deal that never was and Impactassessmentgate.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    @rcs1000

    I think you mean international trade not DFID for Fox.
    As for new leadership - pinning hopes on someone totally untested doesn’t seem wise.

    I think Hunt or Gove would at least be prepared to take tough decisions and accept downsides to Brexit.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006
    @rcs1000 -- the quote button is not working for me on Chrome or Firefox.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    Not working on Chrome on a Mac either.
  • OGH: "I just wonder whether we are now seeing the end game for Mrs May. Certainly the betting markets see that. 2018 is now the favourite as the year of her departure."

    Indeed so ... Ladbrokes' odds of 11/10 on LaMay leaving office during 2018 looks like real value. Something quite remarkable in her favour would need to happen for he to survive for another 12 months as PM, whereas in fact her position appears to weaken by the day.
    She must be hating every minute of it and the strain on someone, not in the very best of health must be enormous.
    I'd expect that she already has a date in mind, or more likely an event pencilled in for her departure, failing which I think it more than likely, say a 75%+ probability, that someone will make the decision for her sooner rather than later. My guess remains that she'll have gone by Easter.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,685
    We need a coup. Gavin Barwell as General Administrator (domestic policy) and Boris Gove-Mogg as General Supremo of Brexit, Foreign, Trade and International Stuff. Rory Stewart for general bouncy Tiggerish enthusiasm, and Kate Hoey to sort out the Northern Ireland border issue.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,315
    RobD said:

    Not working on Chrome on a Mac either.

    Try clearing your cache...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006
    edited December 7
    What happens after JohnLoony's coup? Do we have any politicians who are better prepared, with 57 sectoral analyses and a vague idea of an end-game? I'm coming to the view we need urgently to suspend Article 50 (which the EU has hinted it will agree to) in order to do what May should have done before triggering it, and Cameron before calling the referendum, which is set up a Royal Commission to explore and evaluate the various different options (Canada, Norway, WTO and so on). How you get that through our current parliament is anyone's guess.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 7,006
    Cache cleared; Chrome Canary tried. Quote button still kaput.

    And on logging in, the Vanilla page includes a "new discussion" button -- am I supposed to see that?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    @rkrkrkrkrkrkrkrkrkrkrkrkr

    The hard brexit project is deeply radical. It's a kindof year zeroism. A conservative anarchism.

    They've engineered a situation where anything other than a cold hard brexit is treachery.

    It's an incredible coup for them and a disaster for the country.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    @Pong

    But they don’t have the votes for hard Brexit - not yet at least.
    I think you’re right though that the price to be paid for a soft Brexit is not going to look very appealing to the public.
    The public may feel differently however once the economic impact of hard Brexit is realised.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    edited December 7
    Yeah, @rcs1000 the quote (and other) buttons are bust for me. On both Mozilla & Edge.

    Not that it bothers me much.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,232
    edited December 7
    In terms of who might succeed LaMay as Conservative Leader (not necessarily as P.M. please note), the astonishing thing as far as I'm concerned is that the two current front runners are, incredibly, Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis who are priced as short as 4/1 and 9/2 respectively. I can't believe that either has a snowflake's chance in hell of landing the gig and that being the case, there really should be some decent value elsewhere.
    I'm currently going for the much more generously priced Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt but potentially it's quite a large field, especially if one considers that a currently unknown figure might just conceivably emerge from the pack.
    It would be interesting to learn who OGH considers is in with a shout (as well as who in his opinion is not).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 14,976
    edited December 7
    On topic, interesting (but paywalled) article in the Telegraph this morning, suggesting that Junker is worried about a fall of May, especially that if she’s forced out her replacement (Gove?) will be a “proper” Leaver who won’t be up for paying a large bill for a crap deal. Therefore there needs to be some deal on the table by next week.

    Off topic, Robert the Vanilla quote button is definitely bust. Multiple browsers, platforms and OSes. Started around 21:30GMT.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,157
    The vanilla quote button is called Robert?
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 865
    @rkrkrk if May has to rely on Labour MP's and she, along with those PLP who vote with her will be committing political suicide. It's very doubtful now if she could survive a vote of confidence, while with the coming recess when the MP's will be back in their constituencies, listening to all their local supporters, party workers and friends... It will not be a happy or a merry Christmas for them, and when they return...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    Why are the Brexit negotiations going so badly for Britain? That's one of those questions that answers itself.

    Still, it's good to see the late-dawning realisation of some Leavers about the current state of play. They're still scrabbling around with the idea that this is somehow salvageable, which is sad and sweet.

    There has to be acknowledged failure of Brexit as it has been pursued before Britain can move on.

    Ironically, Leavers' best hope is Brussels. As I pointed out months ago, if the EU is forced to own the incoherence in London, it is forced to come up with a better deal if it wants one. Does it want one enough? I guess we're going to see.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/01/everything-is-negotiable-how-the-election-result-may-have-improved-britains-negotiating-position-in-the-brexit-talks/

    The final paragraph has aged well.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    To confirm - Quote button inoperative - I suspect an Irish blockage.
  • Sandpit - The piece in this morning's Daily Telegraph (and all over the major TV news last night) wasn't simply about May herself falling, but rather about her entire Government!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 20,315
    Sandpit said:

    On topic, interesting (but paywalled) article in the Telegraph this morning, suggesting that Junker is worried about a fall of May, especially that if she’s forced out her replacement (Gove?) will be a “proper” Leaver who won’t be up for paying a large bill for a crap deal. Therefore there needs to be some deal on the table by next week.

    Off topic, Robert the Vanilla quote button is definitely bust. Multiple browsers, platforms and OSes. Started around 21:30GMT.

    Works for me.
  • "Quote" doesn't work for me using Chrome.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,232
    edited December 7
    Based on yesterday's PMQs, it seems pretty clear that Corbyn isn't interested in pressing for a GE any time soon.
    Perhaps he doesn't fancy the poisoned chalice that is Brexit?
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    OT. I'm unconvinced about the latest furore about Brexit. Surely it would be bigger news if all was going smoothly. Much of the media froth is being generated by those on both sides who have a very different agenda. Of course I could be wrong but this seems to be a regular feature of the run up to EU summits.

    On Jerusalem I expect a resurgence of anti-Semitism in the Labour party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    The quest for Brexit always focused obsessively on the desired destination (at least in outline), skipping over the minor difficulty of getting from here to there. But the absolutely fatal flaw was to overlook the fact that it would be a bunch of idiots that would get to implement it.

    May is failing badly but there is no-one who looks remotely more credible amongst her top team who could take over. The Conservatives are failing badly, yet no opposition party is sufficiently credible to capitalise or offer a coherent alternative plan. Until the politicians realise they will have to throw the whole matter back to the people, to rectify the mistake we have made, I fear that things are just going to flounder and drift.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    @IanB2

    Unclear as to how a currently divided nation could solve the current impasse. There are problems with May's approach but this mostly reflects the reality of a divided party, a hostile media, a still smarting EU and some genuinely difficult issues to resolve.
  • Perhaps the biggest factor in determining Mrs May's future course of action will prove to be the influence of her husband, Philip. He has to be concerned about the impact the pressures she is continually facing are having on her health and he is probably the only one she will listen to right now.
    A fortnight's R&R over Christmas (relatively speaking) might concentrate minds.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    It is only a few weeks ago that No. 10 - asked the question directly - was quick to reassure that Mr Timothy was not still advising on the day to day business of government. If - as the Daily Record suggests - this has now changed and he is regularly being consulted again - what an appalling state of affairs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 41,925
    Quote el busto on firefox
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,340
    @rcs1000 - "Why wasn't this all war gamed before the serving of Article 50? Why weren't the position papers ready?Why do we find ourselves trapped between the promises of politicians to businesses like Nissan, and political realities?"

    Because our political class (moderate leavers as well as remainers) have never come to terms with the result of the referendum. They still think they are playing a game of domestic politics seeking to get one over their political rivals.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    @felix, far comment, and you are right that politics doesn't operate in a vacuum but reflects the state of the nation. Or, as often put, we get the politics that we deserve.

    I don't see any prospect of the nation uniting behind Brexit. The best we can hope for is the ongoing political chaos slowly builds a majority for an alternative path.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,776
    Good day to bury bad news on General Election voting.

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/238044/The-administration-of-the-June-2017-UK-general-election.pdf

    Electoral Commission Report out - minor problems in Stoke and Plymouth, wonder if there are any other gems tucked away?
  • " If - as the Daily Record suggests - this has now changed and he is regularly being consulted again - what an appalling state of affairs."

    Indeed ... the media is bound to pick up on this and should it be discovered that he is still actively involved in advising TM, the word toast, of the burnt variety, would spring to mind.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    @IanB2
    One might equally suggest gently that the Daily Record and those keen to quote it have their own agenda.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030
    edited December 7
    @AlistairMeeks

    Are negotiations going so badly?
    If you judge by the yardstick of what Brexiteers said/expected - then obviously.

    But if you judge by a more realistic measure, then I would say May hasn't done too badly.
    It was always very ambitious to untangle ourselves from the EU and also agree a trade deal in 2 years.

    Were it not for the DUP/May's disastrous election result, the divorce bill issue would be dealt with and the Irish border question satisfactorily resolved for the parties that matter. We would now be discussing a trade deal with a 2 year transition period.

    This in spite of the fact that a significant chunk of her party - indeed her Cabinet - are not on the same page when it comes to the political realities.

    I still think there is a very good chance we will come away with a deal - albeit one that is much inferior to what we currently have. In a sense that will be a triumph for May given how weak a position she is in and that what was promised by Brexit was not realistic.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    @Ptp

    I think she'd have gone already if this was the case. She's remarkably resilient in the face of adversity. I wish Cameron had been so.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328
    May needs to go, for her own good as well as that of the country. She should announce it after next weeks summit. Phase 2 will have to wait, not least because we are not prepared for it. A leadership contest would be over by March and needs to be a contest of ideas rather than coronation.

    If we ask nicely the EU would grant us a years A50 extension while we get our act together. Brexit is increasingly looking a terminal event for Britain's international credibility. We are going to be eaten alive by other countries trade negotiators after they have seen how useless our dealings with the EU have been.

    Syrizia look competent negotiators in comparison.

  • "I don't see any prospect of the nation uniting behind Brexit. The best we can hope for is the ongoing political chaos slowly builds a majority for an alternative path."

    There speaks a remainer methinks!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 7
    @peter Absolutely. Because you know it makes sense ;)

    @felix It looks that way because the likely replacements will all be worse. Resilience isn't the right word. But she is responsible enough not to abandon office and create an even worse mess.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    I think May will do her absolute best to deliver a deal on phase 1. She would have done so already if the DUP had shared her enthusiasm. I think she has concluded that a deal is essential for Britain so we have to pay the price, however ridiculous.

    Until now it appeared that when the crunch came she could deliver the Cabinet and the party to such a scenario. Ironically, it is the gross incompetence of Davis in particular which might undermine her. If he, Boris and Fox (who has become every bit as peripheral as he deserves) lose the confidence of the Brexiteers on the back benches led by the Mogg she will fail.
  • fox: For LaMay to resign next week would look as if she's been bullied into it, plus it would inevitably result in unseemly jostling for position over the Christmas period. Instead, I expect a rather less panicked announcement around mid-late January.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,232
    edited December 7
    felix: "@Ptp" - you owe the PB.com Social Fund £1.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    The Tories cannot have a leadership contest in the foreseeable without opening up questions that they don't want to answer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    Nah. Papers like the Daily Record (and Mirror - no-one reads the former outside Scotland) ran similar headlines before, during and even after Cameron's premiership, including a time where they stalked him with a chicken.

    This is the Remoaners (of which, sadly, OGH is one) having a go at May as they do from time to time when they sense she's weak.

    Meanwhile, a deal is almost done, and HMG is winning all the votes on the Brexit bill in the Commons.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 7
    Nick Cohen
    @NickCohen4
    "The party of business is threatening businesses. The party of national security is weakening Britain. The party of the union is endangering the union. Not sure how the Tories survive Brexit."
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    @rkrkrk of course you should judge Leavers on their own terms. That's what was promised.
  • felixfelix Posts: 6,872
    @PfP Humble pie for me for lunch today :-(
  • Casino .... not for the first time you bring encouraging words of comfort for those of us of a blue persuasion. With that I shall retire for a while.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    What is remarkable is how many Leavers have switched seamlessly from "it'll be a doddle" into "stab in the back" Brexit. It would be helpful if some of those Leavers could share their intellectual journey between those two points with those of us who never got high in the first place.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    @IanB2

    Equally there is absolutely no chance of the nation uniting behind a decision to abandon Brexit as you seem to think should happen. Such a scenario is a pipe dream - which would rapidly be proved to be a nightmare.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 162
    We're in a nightmare now Richard. It can't get worse if they say "let's put it on hold and get some proper impact assessments done on the whole UK" then we'll go back to the country with some honest assessments rather than the fantasies that we voted on first time.

    While I am here can I just ask why on Earth A50 was triggered without any assessment being done on the various exit options? No business would act like that. I have a feeling that no one wanted to see those lest it went against their thinking so they just ploughed on regardless and clueless.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,105
    @Casino Royale,

    I'm surprised by what an easy time the government is having in the Commons.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    @R_T You are right that there will always be a small minority who will never reconcile themselves, as there has been ever since we joined. But the larger numbers unhappy about inequality, housing, employment or immigration and who don't really care about Europe either way need to have their concerns addressed. May realised this when she came to office, but has utterly failed to produce an agenda let alone progress it. If there was a way to a government that delivered in these areas, the Brexit fanatics would once again find that their obsession is a minority pursuit,
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,776
    Electoral Commission claim double voting is low, yet "no mechanism to collectively interrogate registers maintained by different Electoral Registration Officers in order to identify duplicate entries across Great Britain, and that some voters appear to have admitted exploiting
    that weakness. (para 2-66).

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/238044/The-administration-of-the-June-2017-UK-general-election.pdf

    From what I read I see that EC flag similar concerns in 2011, but all is well etc.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    @Casino_Royale Iain Martin voted Leave. I'm not sure why that's a sensible test for analysis but if you only accept Leave-supporting comment, you can at least read his bit of the thread header..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    @spyn that seems odd given that the whole purpose of IER was to tie registration to NI numbers. I guess the problem is practical - that every council maintains its own database and there isn't any easy way to integrate and interrogate the data?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 925
    The easy ride they're getting in the HoC is a sign of fragility rather than strength. The Conservative MPs know it could be a case of ici gît l'abîme very quickly.
  • @AllyB

    The impact assessments should have been done before the referendum vote. Electors would then have had some idea what they were voting for.

    As it was, the referendum offered a blank cheque, and that is what Leavers now have. It doesn't matter what the impact, the Government has to deliver Brexit, regardless of consequences.

    Whether this is a sensible way to run a country is another matter but it is where we are at.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 8,776
  • @PfP

    Glad to see someone still imposing discipline on site.

    (Quote not working for me either..)
  • Re Nick Cohen’s tweet - the usual hyperbole. 1997 and 2001 didn’t kill the Tories. Corbyns election most certainly didn’t kill the Labour Party. Reports of the death of political parties are often premature and often wildly incorrect.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    The more people try to justify it (looking at you @rcs1000) the more Brexit resembles Communism for its adherents; a great idea just not being implemented properly.

    As if there was a version of Brexit that could be.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,371
    PtP "It doesn't matter what the impact, the Government has to deliver Brexit, regardless of consequences"

    A true statesman or woman would be able to save the country from such a disaster. The consequences do matter, it's incredible (if true) that the present government hasn't bothered to find out what they might be.
  • @RCS

    Robert, that is the most desperate post I have ever seen from you.

    Why don't you just man up, and admit you were wrong - and that Brexit has turned into the appalling f*ck up it was always likely to be?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 7
    @no.12 Nevertheless it is unique to see a party turn its back on all of its long/standing USPs. And with it some of their traditional supporters, in exchange for an emerging support base whose interests they don't want to progress.

    It will be interesting to see how this goes for them.

    When Mrs T went chasing after new support, at least she had some big policies like Council house sales and tell-Sid style privatisations, that put some £ in their pockets. What is May offering the C2s of Mansfield?
  • @Logical Song

    And do you have such a Statesman in mind? The only one who comes remotely near, imo, is Kenneth Clarke, but age aside my Tory friends tell me he is 'unacceptable'.

    Not sure why Statemanship should be unacceptable, but it's their Party and they would know better than me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 25,806
    Perhaps the parties should be getting ready for the Maidenhead by-election. If she leaves Number 10 she surely won’t want to remain as an MP.

    Another one who completely misunderstands Mrs May's sense of duty. She made a promise to the electors of Maidenhead, and unlike previous male PMs will not shirk from it. Look where it got them?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,544
    @TOPPING

    Absolutely.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,371
    PtP - Sorry no statesman in mind. Nearest I can come up with is Hammond and then only as a caretaker to arrange the General Election and/or Second Referendum.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 1,157
    Topping has a good point, and it is a great shame that the current shambles is playing into this. The details of what went wrong when will fade from our memories quickly, but that it was handled chaotically won't. And that will give the anti-EU diehards the excuse they need to not own the downsides from Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    @peter I assumed rcs was referring to the quote button. But you never know.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    Not having a quote button does save a lot of page space. As well as helping us all channel our inner Morris.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,370
    I think it would have been better for everyone's physical and mental health if we'd Brexited before the advent of 24-hour media.
  • @Logical


    To me, Hammond would be the logical choice, but he too seems to be 'unacceptable' which I think tells you more about the Party than the bloke.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    @rcs1000

    I would normally agree on Liam Fox, and obviously he hasn't delivered on trade deals (but to be fair he can't really at the moment).

    However I spoke to a friend last night who commented how much more proactive the Embassies have become on trade matters since Brexit. Whether that's Fox or Johnson I don't know, but my friend finds it very helpful
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    @Peter Even Cameron was 'unacceptable' to many of them, even at the beginning. I think every Tory councillor in your patch voted for Davis. And hated Cammo with a passion, well before he deserved it.
  • DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 48
    @rcs "You know, I always thought that Liam Fox was the most incompetent of the Three Brexiteers. He has, after all, completely failed in his remit at DfID, messing around with position papers on "Tariffs for a 21st Century Britain", rather than getting down to the hard grind of replicating the EU's existing trade agreements."

    This has already been done. 60 roll-overs have been agreed (per former trade minister Mark Price and confirmed by Greg Hands)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    There is something a bit too jolly about Mrs May at the moment. One of those looks that tells you it cant get any worse. I got a rare call from my stockbroker yesterday saying the same. They were very pessimistic about the UK market. Brexit was becoming a costly disaster which was likely to lead to a Corbyn govenment which would be even worse and could lead to a crash.

    "And the good news?" I asked

    "Well there are good opportunities elsewhere" He said.

    "Like Europe?" I suggested

    "Yes"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    @Roger the one flaw in that investment advice is that the "UK market" is mostly overseas, as well, at least at the top end. But I agree FTSE is likely to sink on sentiment alone. The big Q is whether the US will continue to defy gravity?
  • @Roger

    She would be right. From her point of view, it can't get worse. Her Party cannot get rid of her, for the obvious reason. The Opposition wouldn't want to get rid of her even if it could, which right now it can't.

    And she can look the electorate straight in the eye and say 'Well this is what you voted for.'

  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 294
    On the NI question for a moment. According to Peston there were three scenarios - A (border solved by FTA), B - (technology solution) and C - if all else fails regulatory alignment.

    If this is true, it is a bit strange, because surely if we don't get an FTA that is sufficient to address the NI border it means no deal, and therefore any concession made at present is irrelevant as it will never form part of an agreement. So how would option C ever get activated?

    Therefore the suspicion must be that the EU insistence on its insertion is simply to try to pre-judge trade talks - the moment the UK moves on to trade the EU will say that we have to accept alignment before we even start negotiating because we have already promised to otherwise the NI border issue can never be resolved.

    Quite clear that the UK should refuse this even if it leads to a breakdown. The concern is that May did not can cannot see the trap being laid right in front of her.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @Deafbloke
    This has already been done. 60 roll-overs have been agreed (per former trade minister Mark Price and confirmed by Greg Hands)
    Do they exist in the same place as the 58 excruciatingly detailed sectoral analyses?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good morning, everyone.

    Well. I must admit I prefer my line about it being an age of Honorius and Arcadius all over again, but there we are.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    F1: 21 race calendar for 2018 announced. Mildly surprised there's an asterisk next to the US (indicating it requires confirmation) as it's the best new circuit for decades.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42260308
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    edited December 7
    Loving the Stuka-like whine of the Remainers, as they think they are winning the air war, while the Prime Minister wins the ground war in Westminster.

    The DUP will continue to hold their part of the line. Right up to the point where MPs decide - approve the final deal, or sink it and go out WTO terms? Sinking it will be Labour’s decision. Do their MPs REALLY want to own hard Brexit? Approve the deal though, and they have no edge against the Tories on how Brexit pans out.

    They will probably abstain en masses at the final deal, having been painted by Brexiteers as cowards and by Remainers as, er, cowards..... defeat from the jaws of victory.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,318
    #jesuisMorris

    Quote button-wise.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    SDP conference shows that there is no status quo EU on offer for remainers.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @MarqueeMark
    they think they are winning the air war, while the Prime Minister wins the ground war in Westminster.
    Westminster is not where the front line lies
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Lol at Roger for confirming the Champagne Socialist meme!

    #Stockbrokers4Socialists
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Mr. Topping, one is grateful for one's support.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 17,801
    Do people realise that an "Impact Assessment" is a very specific, formal document?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_assessment

    It is very possible for DeExEu to have assessed the impact of Brexit without having conducted an Impact Assessment...

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    No-one is winning anything, this is a depressing multi dimensional omnishambles.
This discussion has been closed.