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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication –

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication – the Brexit backing Spectator

A Speccie headline I'd though we would never see. "Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum" https://t.co/QzNDjycoeN

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    AV!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 616
    Second preference
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 3,966
    edited December 7
    What's the main fear of being a constituent of the United States of Europe?

    Is there something specific, or just a general dislike of being told what to do by a non-Brit? Is it about preserving a sense of Britishness, or a fear that we'd be impoverished by bureaucracy and socialist giveaways? A worry that NATO would collapse, or that handwringing and indecision in the EU would give Putin and Erdogan free reign? Etc, etc.

    Genuinely curious as to the answers, from remainers and leavers alike.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    A referendum conducted by AV. TSE has reached nirvana.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    The same reason Mexico or Canada do not want to be part of the United States of America. Or Japan or South Korea join China. Or Bangladesh join India.

    I want the UK to remain an independent country (both de jure, and de facto) for the long-term.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    "His suggestion of three options on the ballot is interesting with voters being invited to express a first and second preference vote. If none of the options secures 50% of the vote then the least-favoured option should be dismissed and the second preferences taken into account."

    Very interesting! I wonder if this type of voting system has a name?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    Let's 'ave an AVerendum?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 8,896
    edited December 7
    Great to see this thread lead, given the slating I got for saying that we were likely heading for a second referendum, at the beginning of the year.

    Ref#2 would be more a way for Labour to escape from its self-impaling on the fence of Brexit, than for the Tories to heal their enduring divisions. The latter will only be resolved when one wing of the party or the other leaves for more fertile pastures.
  • Another EU referendum but conducted under AV?

    Just think of how many threads I’ll be able to do on that on PB.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    On topic, no. I wouldn't bet on it.

    This is the latest in a series of posts where OGH is led by his heart not his head.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 7,351
    @Casino_Royale

    Bad analogy.

    1) UK =/= Bangladesh, Mexico, Canada, South Korea or Japan.
    2) EU =/= USA, China or India
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    The path of least resistance is and has always been to cancel Brexit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    @Jonathan - I think the question was posed based on postings on the last thread talking about a United States of Europe with an explicit comparison to the USA.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    FPT - there are none so blind as Remainers who can't see.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 15,056
    Who is this"Nick Clegg" of which you speak? Is he the guy who used to be an MP, kicked out by one Jared O'Mara?

    A typical EU-rocrat ploy to get us to stay in the EU without a majority of the electorate signing up to that. It's what passes for democracy in the EU....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 3,966
    @Casino Luckily you're immune to such behaviour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    @Jonathan - not really. The premise is that small countries in the modern world are no longer viable independent political units and must inevitably join larger federal countries, or face oblivion or irrelevance.

    I simply listed a few mainly successful countries that have no plans to do so.
  • The terms are slightly different but Publicty Shy Paddy Power are offering 7/1 on Another EU Referendum to be held before April 1st 2019.

    Ladbrokes is 5/1 on Another UK EU Referendum before end 2019

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2927309
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,386
    edited December 7
    @MM

    To be fair, although Mike mentions Clegg that is not who wrote the article nor who is quoted. The point is well made that there is an increase in support for a confirmatory referendum even amongst some who support Brexit.

    Personally I would only support one if the basis were take it or leave it on a deal. The question of reversing Brexit should certainly not be entertained before we have even left
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 570
    Given that we are currently on course to leave in 15 months, how exactly would a second referendum come about? Maybe if Labour was lead by someone like Umunna, the government collapses, he agrees very longterm delay of Art50 with the EU, then it's possible. But Corbyn is hardly going to do that, given he's a lifelong Euro-sceptic.

    There just isn't time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    That article reads more like a call for mercy because he knows Brexit is losing all the arguments now and he wants the dogs of Remain to be called off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    @Anorak - indeed. I'm remarkably free of confirmation bias, which has been a great help in my betting.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    edited December 7
    I see the Remainers (you see: I can play this game as well, Alastair) are still totally failing to engage with what we'd be asked to "Remain" into.

    Exactly the same criticism they made of Leave prior to the referendum.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,523
    It would be EURef2, not 3. 1975 was EECRef.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    If this ever happened I would either kill myself, launch a suicide attack on Brussels, or sell up everything and emigrate to Canada or New Zealand.

    I don't want to live in a chastened or eunuch country run by Europhiles and the Left.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    @Casino_Royale The choice was between the xenophobic Brexit campaigned for or staying with the dysfunctional but ultimately benign EU. The xenophobic Brexit campaigned for continues to unravel.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    I don't see the value because I don't see the process. Who is going to push a referendum through parliament and how?

    Realistically, it could only be the government who took that action but the Tories aren't going to do that because it would expose all the divisions without providing an effective means of healing them - while simultaneously hugely weakening an already weak hand in negotiations: why would the EU concede anything to make Brexit easier in such circumstances?

    Alternatively, if it's a Labour government offering this, you have to explain how that comes about in the next 12 months, and how Corbyn then addresses the Brexit process.

    There are theoretical ways in which we get EURef2 but I don't see any of them as being at all likely in the real world.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Anyone daft enough to suggest another referendum will be punished by the British voters at elections for some time.

    The public are bored of the Brexit process - they don't want another campaign rehashing the same old baloney.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    @TGOHF - What do you think a country bored of Brexit will do when given the chance to choose between ‘make it stop’ and ‘nothing but Brexit for the foreseeable future’?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    @AlastairMeeks - as far as I can tell, you think all bets are off for the UK's future for good because you think Leave did a Racial.

    I understand your point of view, but I think you're overly angry about it.

    That vortex article was very good btw. Kind of ironic I read that only after I posted a few angry posts of my own :-/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    @williamglenn - I wonder what the outcome would be of the first EU elections after Brexit was cancelled.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    william - "get on with it and stay out forever" will win by a mile.

    Particularly now the true nature of the EU has been exposed, how deep the tentacles have dug and of course Macron and Schultz's plan for a superstate.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 12,828
    @williamglenn Even if Remain were to win (far from guaranteed), do you really think the Brexiteers would just give up and go home? Their sense of betrayal in the governing class would be palpable and UKIP would be reenergised as a political party overnight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 7
    Belgium, couldn't organize a piss up in a brewery...

    Wembley will host seven games at Euro 2020 after Brussels lost the right to host matches for the tournament.

    http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/42270759
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    william - if a second referendum again showed leave winning - would you concede defeat and accept Brexit ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited December 7
    @FrancisUrquhart - the semi final and final were always going to be played in London? When does England officially become the host? :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    Whether you think the EU is benign or not is largely irrelevant. It won't look to conquer by force adjacent countries, or oppress or exterminate minorities. Neither does the UK.

    The issue is whether or not I wish to be governed by Britons and British institutions in the UK or by pan-Europeans and EU institutions in a federal Europe.

    It goes down to the absolute fundamentals of social identity and self-determination.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    @Casino_Royale As I have said for about a year and a half, the manner of the Leave campaign defines the options open to it and to Britain. In that time, the problem has been compounded by the inability of anyone on the winning side to conceive that it might be useful to reach out to those on the losing side: indeed the approach has varied between angrily telling them that they were wrong, exultantly telling them that they had lost and calling them Quislings. Then Leave supporters get huffy that Remain supporters aren't putting their shoulders to the wheel to make Brexit a success.

    Until Leavers confront the nature of the campaign that they fought and its consequences, there's not much prospect of Britain heading in a positive direction.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Schultz also called for a "shift away from the austerity approach" of Merkel in the EU.

    Sounds like leave is going to need a bigger bus.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    @TGOHF - Yes, but on the other hand, that really would mean the UK was finished as a viable state.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    Mr Meeks - to the victors the spoils and the writing of history but there may be a time to reach out once peace has been achieved but that is difficult when the Gina Miller et al army is fighting an open guerrilla war aimed at toppling the current regime.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    william - there aren't any viable states outside the EU ? That is news.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,321
    @AlastairMeeks

    That was indeed an excellent and thoughtful speech by Boris. The point about who the "we" is that is going to defeat terrorism is particularly important. It is also an excellent and destructive demolition of the Corbyn world view where everything that happens is the fault of the west and anyone who opposes the west must surely be in the right.

    Thanks for the link.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    @ Dvaid Herdson - I think that it is unlikely that the failure of Brexit would automatically turn
    all leavers into UKIP supporters. Certainly some would go that way but I would be surprised if it were more than 10-15% of the electorate. If Brexit crashes in flames bringing down the government, May, and perhaps the Tory Party as well it will be dead as a policy option. Having seen what it has done to this government no future one will want to go down the same road.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 8
    @Casino_Royale But how do you make that work and keep people happy? We won't get a "good" FTA without conceding some things that are apparently unacceptable to those who want to leave.

    The EU cannot and will not give us anything near the current access we have because then every member state knows if they throw a similar wobbly to us, they can have a little bit of pain to opt out of stuff they don't like.

    The EU cannot have members or half members that accept free movement and others that don't. They cannot have members or half members that have the benefits of the SM and CU and some that don't. But the general public and the politicians do not wan't to live in the world where Britain is significantly worse off for leaving the EU. The options are staying and accepting the rules and the economic benefits for many that comes with, or leaving and accepting that many will be worse off economically. The philosophical issue of sovereignty is important (although why stop a independence from the EU; Mercians for Mercian independence, and so on) but that is not the argument the Government are making. They're trying to sell Brexit as an economic good, and that isn't true.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    All we need now is some momentum and the way the talks are going that should be easy. I'd like to see Clegg back in parliament. We need a by election and the zeitgeist could shift very quickly

    HALLELUJAH!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768
    TGOHF said:

    Mr Meeks - to the victors the spoils and the writing of history but there may be a time to reach out once peace has been achieved but that is difficult when the Gina Miller et al army is fighting an open guerrilla war aimed at toppling the current regime.

    The writing of history is not exactly Brexiters' strong point. Right now they're looking like malignant clowns (probably because that's what they are).

    As a result of Leavers' failure to seek to build a consensus, the chances of the referendum not being ultimately implemented must be higher now than they have been at any point since 24 June 2016.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    @AlastairMeeks and I've been listening and trying to engage with that point for almost a year and a half.

    I hear you.

    What pisses me off is the pompous way you engage or talk down to Leavers on this forum. I criticised the Leave campaign as "crap" during the campaign, and only delivered leaflets I was comfortable delivering. I also made the case in my own way. One doesn't get to call all the shots. And, no, I wasn't going to abandon the Leave campaign over it, even if you thought I should, and think less of me for not doing so, because I thought the stakes were too high.

    Anyway, quislings/idiots/traitors/morons.. none of it aides dialogue, does it?

    Personally, you just wind me up. When I'd far rather just talk to you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited December 7
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/independent/status/938721107804327936

    What's that got to do with trade?

    At least the quote button works again!

    Edit: Stipulations include “that the UK continues to guarantee fundamental human rights as laid down in the European Convention of Human Rights” as well as other demands to automatically implement new EU laws created after 2019, and a ban on “opt-outs” from Brexit for Britain’s car-making and financial services industries.

    Cup of cold sick comes to mind.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884
    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    @david_herdson - To a large extent the elite Brexiteers would indeed give up and go home. Even the likes of UKIP would be better off electorally seeking common cause with like-minded groups across Europe fighting a culture war against the 'liberal elite' than basing their raison d'etre on resurrecting a proven failed policy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,485
    edited December 7
    Realistically we need a major recession the Brexit talks to collapse and for the perfect storm the government to fall.

    All very possible
  • TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    HURAH THE QUOTE BUTTON IS BACK
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,573
    edited December 7
    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    Or for another view (which I haven't read)
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/06/britain-almost-has-fight-way-eu-colonial-empire/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    @AlastairMeeks and I've been listening and trying to engage with that point for almost a year and a half.

    I hear you.

    What pisses me off is the pompous way you engage or talk down to Leavers on this forum. I criticised the Leave campaign as "crap" during the campaign, and only delivered leaflets I was comfortable delivering. I also made the case in my own way. One doesn't get to call all the shots. And, no, I wasn't going to abandon the Leave campaign over it, even if you thought I should, and think less of me for not doing so, because I thought the stakes were too high.

    Anyway, quislings/idiots/traitors/morons.. none of it aides dialogue, does it?

    Personally, you just wind me up. When I'd far rather just talk to you.

    You like the result but want to evade responsibility for the way in which it was won. I don't blame you for feeling that way, I'd like to evade responsibility for the way in which it was won too.

    But until Leavers start taking responsibility for the way in which it was won and working through the consequences of that, the country will continue to go backwards.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    RobD said:

    a ban on “opt-outs” from Brexit for Britain’s car-making and financial services industries.

    My neighbour's daughter is a senior engineering manager at JLR

    Without a deal she says they are F'KD
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 981
    edited December 7
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/independent/status/938721107804327936

    What's that got to do with trade?

    At least the quote button works again!

    Edit: Stipulations include “that the UK continues to guarantee fundamental human rights as laid down in the European Convention of Human Rights” as well as other demands to automatically implement new EU laws created after 2019, and a ban on “opt-outs” from Brexit for Britain’s car-making and financial services industries.

    Cup of cold sick comes to mind.
    Has Canada been required to sign to the ECHR? Or Japan?

    But anyway, has anyone suggested we will leave the ECHR? What's that got to do with the EU?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 24,874

    Whether you think the EU is benign or not is largely irrelevant. It won't look to conquer by force adjacent countries, or oppress or exterminate minorities. Neither does the UK.

    The issue is whether or not I wish to be governed by Britons and British institutions in the UK or by pan-Europeans and EU institutions in a federal Europe.

    It goes down to the absolute fundamentals of social identity and self-determination.

    That's absolutely fair enough.

    It all comes down to how you view a demos and what such a demos is for. For me, identity is a very fluid thing. I am English in the UK, I am British in Europe and Asia, I am European in the US. When it comes down to it, I feel I have enough in common with other Europeans in terms of ideals and outlooks that sharing an institutional and economic framework with them as a way of improving living standards and quality of life is not a huge problem for me. That will not stop me being or feeling English, British or European.

    I accept absolutely that others may disagree.

    I wish the referendum had been about that.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
    How do you view the other nations of Europe in the same context? Could the other nations of Europe remain viable as individual states, if the EU project were to fracture?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 39,452
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I've been mentioning this for a while. Backed it at 6.5 (quite surprised the odds haven't shortened more, to be honest) a few weeks ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    philiph said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    Or for another view (which I haven't read)
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/06/britain-almost-has-fight-way-eu-colonial-empire/
    The subheading is: "Every nation lives in 'permanent anger' when not master of its own house, Indonesia’s nationalist leader Sukarno wrote in 1930"

    It's easy to see why he might inspire Brexiteers:

    Sukarno himself was contemptuous of macroeconomics, and was unable and unwilling to provide practical solutions to the poor economic condition of the country. Instead, Sukarno produced more ideological conceptions such as Trisakti: political sovereignty, economic self-sufficiency, and cultural independence. He advocated Indonesians to be "standing on their own feet" (berdikari) and reach economic self-sufficiency, free from foreign influence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukarno
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,009
    148grss said:

    The EU cannot have members or half members that accept free movement and others that don't. They cannot have members or half members that have the benefits of the SM and CU and some that don't

    Why not?

    Without simply stating it as a truism then why can't that be the case?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,123
    Roger said:

    Realistically we need a major recession the Brexit talks to collapse and for the perfect storm the government to fall.

    All very possible

    If Brexit is to be convincingly reversed it needs to be tested to destruction first. Hopefully the destruction will be limited to the government and the Tory Party and not the economy and the country - this cannot be guaranteed unfortunately.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,009

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/independent/status/938721107804327936

    What's that got to do with trade?

    At least the quote button works again!

    Edit: Stipulations include “that the UK continues to guarantee fundamental human rights as laid down in the European Convention of Human Rights” as well as other demands to automatically implement new EU laws created after 2019, and a ban on “opt-outs” from Brexit for Britain’s car-making and financial services industries.

    Cup of cold sick comes to mind.
    Has Canada been required to sign to the ECHR? Or Japan?

    But anyway, has anyone suggested we will leave the ECHR? What's that got to do with the EU?
    I think some would like to take us out of the ECHR but its not directly linked to the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited December 7

    148grss said:

    The EU cannot have members or half members that accept free movement and others that don't. They cannot have members or half members that have the benefits of the SM and CU and some that don't

    Why not?

    Without simply stating it as a truism then why can't that be the case?
    Liechtenstein would be a counter example, although it's only a member of the SM, not the EU fully.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
    How do you view the other nations of Europe in the same context? Could the other nations of Europe remain viable as individual states, if the EU project were to fracture?
    I think we'd be taken back to the pre-WW1 situation of competing empires and spheres of influence if the EU fractured completely.

    I don't think that will happen though, even, for example, if Marine Le Pen had won and France had tried to leave, the legal order of the EU would have weathered the storm and it would have been a temporary aberration, like Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    @AlastairMeeks - I'm not looking to evade anything.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,009

    Whether you think the EU is benign or not is largely irrelevant. It won't look to conquer by force adjacent countries, or oppress or exterminate minorities. Neither does the UK.

    The issue is whether or not I wish to be governed by Britons and British institutions in the UK or by pan-Europeans and EU institutions in a federal Europe.

    It goes down to the absolute fundamentals of social identity and self-determination.

    That's absolutely fair enough.

    It all comes down to how you view a demos and what such a demos is for. For me, identity is a very fluid thing. I am English in the UK, I am British in Europe and Asia, I am European in the US. When it comes down to it, I feel I have enough in common with other Europeans in terms of ideals and outlooks that sharing an institutional and economic framework with them as a way of improving living standards and quality of life is not a huge problem for me. That will not stop me being or feeling English, British or European.

    I accept absolutely that others may disagree.

    I wish the referendum had been about that.
    The one time I feel "European" in context of the US is for the Ryder Cup.

    I feel English in the UK but I feel more at home in Canada or Australia than I do on the continent. They have the same culture, same language etc which isn't the case on the continent which always feels like being in a foreign country.

    The Aussies even drive on the correct side of the road!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,030

    I don't see the value because I don't see the process. Who is going to push a referendum through parliament and how?

    There are theoretical ways in which we get EURef2 but I don't see any of them as being at all likely in the real world.

    Yep completely agree.
    We might not even know what the deal is by the start of 2019.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,328

    Whether you think the EU is benign or not is largely irrelevant. It won't look to conquer by force adjacent countries, or oppress or exterminate minorities. Neither does the UK.

    The issue is whether or not I wish to be governed by Britons and British institutions in the UK or by pan-Europeans and EU institutions in a federal Europe.

    It goes down to the absolute fundamentals of social identity and self-determination.

    That's absolutely fair enough.

    It all comes down to how you view a demos and what such a demos is for. For me, identity is a very fluid thing. I am English in the UK, I am British in Europe and Asia, I am European in the US. When it comes down to it, I feel I have enough in common with other Europeans in terms of ideals and outlooks that sharing an institutional and economic framework with them as a way of improving living standards and quality of life is not a huge problem for me. That will not stop me being or feeling English, British or European.

    I accept absolutely that others may disagree.

    I wish the referendum had been about that.
    I agree. I also find that neither British party is close to my own political beliefs, and both are seriously flawed leaderships.

    I am not bothered whether my democratic representatives are British, so much as whether they have the same aspirations as me. I would rather be represented by competent European Social Democrats than incompetent British Nationalists.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411
    edited December 7

    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
    How do you view the other nations of Europe in the same context? Could the other nations of Europe remain viable as individual states, if the EU project were to fracture?
    I think we'd be taken back to the pre-WW1 situation of competing empires and spheres of influence if the EU fractured completely.

    I don't think that will happen though, even, for example, if Marine Le Pen had won and France had tried to leave, the legal order of the EU would have weathered the storm and it would have been a temporary aberration, like Brexit.
    There wouldn't be much left to boss around with its legal order if everyone left. :p
  • If we do have another referendum I hope David Davis is the front man for Leave.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 1,970

    If we do have another referendum I hope David Davis is the front man for Leave.

    Really?! I sincerely hope he is!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 16,963
    edited December 7
    The most bizarre thing about Brexit at the moment is that most commentators, politicians and even esteemed PB posters seem to have all decided that the government has completely screwed up just at the point where what has actually happened is that, for the first time since the referendum, we seem to be close to making some really major progress. The mood music from the EU26-and-a-half has been remarkably constructive and friendly - they do, at last, seem to accept that there will be an orderly exit deal, a transition deal, and a trade deal, and they are showing every sign of wanting to get on with it.

    Admittedly there's a little local difficulty with the Irish, but when in the last 500 years has there not been? They are only arguing about semantics in respect of what happens if we don't agree a trade deal, and I'm sure some civil servant will be able to come up with some synonym for 'regulatory alignment' which doesn't scare the DUP horses.

    I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    edited December 7
    George Osborne didn’t rule out a return to parliament at his press gallery lunch today. The Evening Standard editor gave a lively speech and when asked if he would return to parliament he said: “I don’t rule it out”.

    https://order-order.com/2017/12/07/osborne-doesnt-rule-return-parliament/

    Keeping the car running (parked in the disabled bay) for 2022.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,573

    philiph said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    Or for another view (which I haven't read)
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/06/britain-almost-has-fight-way-eu-colonial-empire/
    The subheading is: "Every nation lives in 'permanent anger' when not master of its own house, Indonesia’s nationalist leader Sukarno wrote in 1930"

    It's easy to see why he might inspire Brexiteers:

    Sukarno himself was contemptuous of macroeconomics, and was unable and unwilling to provide practical solutions to the poor economic condition of the country. Instead, Sukarno produced more ideological conceptions such as Trisakti: political sovereignty, economic self-sufficiency, and cultural independence. He advocated Indonesians to be "standing on their own feet" (berdikari) and reach economic self-sufficiency, free from foreign influence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukarno
    Yup, I'm sure he has a high measure on the fruit cake scale
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,152
    The two seemingly most contentious planks of the Leave campaign (lying bus and racist posters) were both made far more effective with their constant repetition by the Remainers.

    Most Leavers I know were embarrassed by the Farage poster, weren't entirely aware Turkey was being duped by both the UK & the EU and not about to join, and got tired of explaining that of course we couldn't guarantee £350m to the NHS - that would depend entirely on the government of the day - and ok.. it's the gross figure.

    Online I saw all of the above stories spread far more effectively by the good, honest, caring Remainers, than by evil, racist Leavers.

    Is that ironic?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,009

    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
    How do you view the other nations of Europe in the same context? Could the other nations of Europe remain viable as individual states, if the EU project were to fracture?
    I think we'd be taken back to the pre-WW1 situation of competing empires and spheres of influence if the EU fractured completely.

    I don't think that will happen though, even, for example, if Marine Le Pen had won and France had tried to leave, the legal order of the EU would have weathered the storm and it would have been a temporary aberration, like Brexit.
    No we wouldn't. Europe doesn't have empires anymore and isn't strong or powerful enough to do so.

    Pre-WWI the British Empire had a fifth of global GDP (the UK was about 10% of global GDP). In 2017 the entire EU put together is closer to 15% of GDP only and rapidly shrinking. The entire EU combined is less significant to the world than the British Empire alone was pre-WWI.

    Quite frankly you're too stuck in history and too Euro-centric in your views. What "spheres of influence" do any European nations have now?
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 884

    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
    How do you view the other nations of Europe in the same context? Could the other nations of Europe remain viable as individual states, if the EU project were to fracture?
    I think we'd be taken back to the pre-WW1 situation of competing empires and spheres of influence if the EU fractured completely.

    I don't think that will happen though, even, for example, if Marine Le Pen had won and France had tried to leave, the legal order of the EU would have weathered the storm and it would have been a temporary aberration, like Brexit.
    Do you think there's any danger in Schultz view expressed today that, EU is moving to full federalisation by 2025, and anyone that doesn't want to joint the Euro, sign up to full integration is therefore unable to be a member? What does that do to the future of Europe as a continent if it has one central dominant power that behaves as one nation, with others unable to bring their populations along for the Fully federal route?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,623



    I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.

    Minority of two, although I wouldn't put it as "optimism" since I don't want the process to succeed (I'd like it to lead to successive blind alleys to the point that opinion swings in favour decisively of staying). I think a deal will be done, despite the worst efforts of the Government to cock it up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,339
    @singharj: .@George_Osborne adds another job to his CV during a fascinating lunch, as he says Theresa May will be gone before 2022 and replaced by a softer Brexit Tory team.
    ""I used to be a bit of an amateur chief whip, and I don't think they've got the votes (for a hard Brexit)".
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 742

    The most bizarre thing about Brexit at the moment is that most commentators, politicians and even esteemed PB posters seem to have all decided that the government has completely screwed up just at the point where what has actually happened is that, for the first time since the referendum, we seem to be close to making some really major progress. The mood music from the EU26-and-a-half has been remarkably constructive and friendly - they do, at last, seem to accept that there will be an orderly exit deal, a transition deal, and a trade deal, and they are showing every sign of wanting to get on with it.

    Admittedly there's a little local difficulty with the Irish, but when in the last 500 years has there not been? They are only arguing about semantics in respect of what happens if we don't agree a trade deal, and I'm sure some civil servant will be able to come up with some synonym for 'regulatory alignment' which doesn't scare the DUP horses.

    I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.

    I 100% agree with you. Some of the nonsense that has been written on here over the past few days has been astounding. Its like everyone on here has listening devices in No 10 and know exactly whats going on by the comments that have been made.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,623



    I am not bothered whether my democratic representatives are British, so much as whether they have the same aspirations as me. I would rather be represented by competent European Social Democrats than incompetent British Nationalists.

    +1. I wonder what % of British Tories would vote for Merkel or Marcon over Corbyn, or Labour voters for Schulz or Melanchon over May. Quite a lot, once they got used to the idea, I suspect.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    The most bizarre thing about Brexit at the moment is that most commentators, politicians and even esteemed PB posters seem to have all decided that the government has completely screwed up just at the point where what has actually happened is that, for the first time since the referendum, we seem to be close to making some really major progress. The mood music from the EU26-and-a-half has been remarkably constructive and friendly - they do, at last, seem to accept that there will be an orderly exit deal, a transition deal, and a trade deal, and they are showing every sign of wanting to get on with it.

    Admittedly there's a little local difficulty with the Irish, but when in the last 500 years has there not been? They are only arguing about semantics in respect of what happens if we don't agree a trade deal, and I'm sure some civil servant will be able to come up with some synonym for 'regulatory alignment' which doesn't scare the DUP horses.

    I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.

    Yeah, the fact that the present storm is all down to the wording in "Scenario C" is promising.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,009

    The most bizarre thing about Brexit at the moment is that most commentators, politicians and even esteemed PB posters seem to have all decided that the government has completely screwed up just at the point where what has actually happened is that, for the first time since the referendum, we seem to be close to making some really major progress. The mood music from the EU26-and-a-half has been remarkably constructive and friendly - they do, at last, seem to accept that there will be an orderly exit deal, a transition deal, and a trade deal, and they are showing every sign of wanting to get on with it.

    Admittedly there's a little local difficulty with the Irish, but when in the last 500 years has there not been? They are only arguing about semantics in respect of what happens if we don't agree a trade deal, and I'm sure some civil servant will be able to come up with some synonym for 'regulatory alignment' which doesn't scare the DUP horses.

    I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.

    Make it a minority of two. I wrote something similar the other day.

    The key turning point was agreeing on the accounts. Once that was done the EU had every reason to want a deal. A deal is already worth it for them to avoid disruption with what will become post-Brexit their largest export market. Now though there's a further 50 billion reasons to make sure they get it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    @SouthamObserver - the emotional drive and desire for a United Europe in the EU is so strong that they are simply blind to the idea that any other country within could think differently, and equate those that do with betrayal.

    Meanwhile, most in the UK feel strongly about national independence and have a level of trust in British institutions that they would never dream of countenancing a higher authority that has supreme governance over us.

    I recognise identity can be multi-layered, of course, but this is about very strong emotions. On both sides.

    They matter.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,523

    If we do have another referendum I hope David Davis is the front man for Leave.

    I hope that Blair, Campbell, and AC Grayling are the frontmen for Remain. They've been fighting so hard for it since losing last time round and do a wonderful job of getting across what their cause is about.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 17,768

    The most bizarre thing about Brexit at the moment is that most commentators, politicians and even esteemed PB posters seem to have all decided that the government has completely screwed up just at the point where what has actually happened is that, for the first time since the referendum, we seem to be close to making some really major progress. The mood music from the EU26-and-a-half has been remarkably constructive and friendly - they do, at last, seem to accept that there will be an orderly exit deal, a transition deal, and a trade deal, and they are showing every sign of wanting to get on with it.

    Admittedly there's a little local difficulty with the Irish, but when in the last 500 years has there not been? They are only arguing about semantics in respect of what happens if we don't agree a trade deal, and I'm sure some civil servant will be able to come up with some synonym for 'regulatory alignment' which doesn't scare the DUP horses.

    I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.

    Right at the moment the rest of the EU is less "remarkably constructive and friendly" and more resembling the emergency services trying to persuade the depressive on the roof to step away from the parapet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    Essexit said:

    If we do have another referendum I hope David Davis is the front man for Leave.

    I hope that Blair, Campbell, and AC Grayling are the frontmen for Remain. They've been fighting so hard for it since losing last time round and do a wonderful job of getting across what their cause is about.
    They can tell us we are 45 mins from disaster...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,422
    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
    How do you view the other nations of Europe in the same context? Could the other nations of Europe remain viable as individual states, if the EU project were to fracture?
    I think we'd be taken back to the pre-WW1 situation of competing empires and spheres of influence if the EU fractured completely.

    I don't think that will happen though, even, for example, if Marine Le Pen had won and France had tried to leave, the legal order of the EU would have weathered the storm and it would have been a temporary aberration, like Brexit.
    Do you think there's any danger in Schultz view expressed today that, EU is moving to full federalisation by 2025, and anyone that doesn't want to joint the Euro, sign up to full integration is therefore unable to be a member? What does that do to the future of Europe as a continent if it has one central dominant power that behaves as one nation, with others unable to bring their populations along for the Fully federal route?
    I think the Schulz view is pure fantasy and he is a completely unserious person. Legally it wouldn't be possible to kick countries out of the EU for that reason in any case.

    Hypothetically I suppose it's an interesting question if some major countries within the EU decided to merge their sovereignty fully and become one, and that would indeed pose an existential threat to the EU, but this doesn't seem remotely plausible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049
    @Nick - very few (because as you are incapable of understanding) to us national identity matters.

    I want someone governing who socially identifies as a fellow citizen of this country.

    That also has the convenience of ruling Corbyn out. But wouldn't, for example, eliminate someone like Ed Balls.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,009
    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    It's not so much that I believe there is no such thing as a viable nation state, just that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland cannot become one from our current starting point. I think we're already seeing in the Irish border issue why this is the case. The more the UK tries to assert its nationhood, the more its national cohesion will splinter. The UK is a post-imperial relic.
    How do you view the other nations of Europe in the same context? Could the other nations of Europe remain viable as individual states, if the EU project were to fracture?
    I think we'd be taken back to the pre-WW1 situation of competing empires and spheres of influence if the EU fractured completely.

    I don't think that will happen though, even, for example, if Marine Le Pen had won and France had tried to leave, the legal order of the EU would have weathered the storm and it would have been a temporary aberration, like Brexit.
    Do you think there's any danger in Schultz view expressed today that, EU is moving to full federalisation by 2025, and anyone that doesn't want to joint the Euro, sign up to full integration is therefore unable to be a member? What does that do to the future of Europe as a continent if it has one central dominant power that behaves as one nation, with others unable to bring their populations along for the Fully federal route?
    Precisely what it means for North America.

    I'd rather be Canadian than American.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 22,049



    I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.

    Minority of two, although I wouldn't put it as "optimism" since I don't want the process to succeed (I'd like it to lead to successive blind alleys to the point that opinion swings in favour decisively of staying). I think a deal will be done, despite the worst efforts of the Government to cock it up.
    At least you're honest.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 9,623
    TonyE said:

    @williamglenn.

    In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.

    If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.

    I don't think there's no such thing, as there are obviously hundreds of them. But I think they are largely unhelpful and unsuited to our globalised age, and in time they will come to seem archaic.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 16,291
    The campain for leave would be fronted by the two most popular politicians in the Uk.

    JRM and Jezza.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,253
    Definitely not a pyramid scheme Bitcoin has just hit $17k....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,411

    Definitely not a pyramid scheme Bitcoin has just hit $17k....

    Sorely tempted to sell my tulips right now.
This discussion has been closed.