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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Northern Ireland poll finds more saying they’d prefer to j

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Northern Ireland poll finds more saying they’d prefer to join the Republic than leaving EU & remaining in UK

Northern Ireland's top pollster finds by small margin more people saying they'd prefer to join the Republic to stay in EU than to leave EU and stay in UK pic.twitter.com/viKBapmqYI

Read the full story here


Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    First :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942
    Cheeky... in the event of no deal hard border brexit.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,576
    Clickbaity headline there OGH, this is for the eventuality of No Deal. Alas, they didn't (AFAIK) ask the question for Bad Deal/Good Deal scenarios as well.
  • glwglw Posts: 3,874
    I'd like to see the polling in the Republic.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is this the first poll ever in Northern Ireland where "one Ireland" is in the lead ? Albeit, it is not a straightforward question.

    I guess many young Protestants do not share the views of their elders.
  • If Brexiteers are responsible for the break up of the UK then they should be physically branded as traitors, even if it is Northern Ireland.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The mood is decisively moving towards NO BREXIT. Thanks, Theresa !
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,453
    Within statistical errors this looks like the rough 50/50 split that was indeed the brexit vote itself. But it could develop.
  • Game on, unless the DUP bugger it up again.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 30,942

    Game on, unless the DUP bugger it up again.

    :o :D :o
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,939

    Game on, unless the DUP bugger it up again.

    Or the backwoodsmen of Chingford and Wokingham.
  • Game on, unless the DUP bugger it up again.

    Or the backwoodsmen of Chingford and Wokingham.
    We've got John Redwood by the short and curlies.

    His investment advice is very useful to the whips.
  • felixfelix Posts: 7,014
    edited December 2017
    The poll should be a wake up call for the DUP but sadly it is more likely to entrench their resistance to any change. Of course it would remove a huge burden for the UK were N Ireland to join the Republic and one the latter may not be entirely keen on. The bigger problem is the closeness of the figures - I suspect that the Irish troubles have quite a few chapters to play out yet.
  • I think TMay has an opportunity to show the 'strong' (if not stable) leadership. If she is able to get a deal with the EU but without the agreement of the DUP then she could call an immediate general election (don't all groan at once). Corbyn won't oppose it given the current polls and his age (which at some stage is going to work against him either physically or mentally).

    TMay will argue that supporting her is to support 'sensible' Brexit. She can use DUP and UKIP opposition as evidence that she is avoiding hard Brexit and the opposition of Lib-Dems and hard-core remainers as evidence that she is carrying out the referendum result. It would expose Labour's (lack of) Brexit policy and forestall a Tory leadership contest (at least in the short term). Tory MPs who don't support the deal would be deselected (or choose to defect) and the member for Rushcliffe might finally retire! The fact that May is negotiating a 'middle' way is actually an electoral strength for her. Although her greatest strength at the moment is that, frankly, she has nothing whatsoever to lose.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,126
    TudorRose said:

    I think TMay has an opportunity to show the 'strong' (if not stable) leadership. If she is able to get a deal with the EU but without the agreement of the DUP then she could call an immediate general election (don't all groan at once). Corbyn won't oppose it given the current polls and his age (which at some stage is going to work against him either physically or mentally).

    TMay will argue that supporting her is to support 'sensible' Brexit. She can use DUP and UKIP opposition as evidence that she is avoiding hard Brexit and the opposition of Lib-Dems and hard-core remainers as evidence that she is carrying out the referendum result. It would expose Labour's (lack of) Brexit policy and forestall a Tory leadership contest (at least in the short term). Tory MPs who don't support the deal would be deselected (or choose to defect) and the member for Rushcliffe might finally retire! The fact that May is negotiating a 'middle' way is actually an electoral strength for her. Although her greatest strength at the moment is that, frankly, she has nothing whatsoever to lose.

    This is all pretty plausible... except she hasn't got the nerve to go for it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,727
    TudorRose said:

    I think TMay has an opportunity to show the 'strong' (if not stable) leadership. If she is able to get a deal with the EU but without the agreement of the DUP then she could call an immediate general election (don't all groan at once). Corbyn won't oppose it given the current polls and his age (which at some stage is going to work against him either physically or mentally).

    TMay will argue that supporting her is to support 'sensible' Brexit. She can use DUP and UKIP opposition as evidence that she is avoiding hard Brexit and the opposition of Lib-Dems and hard-core remainers as evidence that she is carrying out the referendum result. It would expose Labour's (lack of) Brexit policy and forestall a Tory leadership contest (at least in the short term). Tory MPs who don't support the deal would be deselected (or choose to defect) and the member for Rushcliffe might finally retire! The fact that May is negotiating a 'middle' way is actually an electoral strength for her. Although her greatest strength at the moment is that, frankly, she has nothing whatsoever to lose.

    She has her own premiership and a Tory plurality. Risking that would result in her losing the former.
  • There is a huge majority in Parliament for a deal. Tezzie should put country ahead of her dodgy deal with the bowler hats and act like a leader.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,209
    Can I be the first to offer Meeks a cuddle?

    I'm reaching out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    People should be free to get what they want - although if they do vote to join the republic I doubt it will be the end of their issues.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,419
    TudorRose said:

    I think TMay has an opportunity to show the 'strong' (if not stable) leadership. If she is able to get a deal with the EU but without the agreement of the DUP then she could call an immediate general election (don't all groan at once). Corbyn won't oppose it given the current polls and his age (which at some stage is going to work against him either physically or mentally).

    TMay will argue that supporting her is to support 'sensible' Brexit. She can use DUP and UKIP opposition as evidence that she is avoiding hard Brexit and the opposition of Lib-Dems and hard-core remainers as evidence that she is carrying out the referendum result. It would expose Labour's (lack of) Brexit policy and forestall a Tory leadership contest (at least in the short term). Tory MPs who don't support the deal would be deselected (or choose to defect) and the member for Rushcliffe might finally retire! The fact that May is negotiating a 'middle' way is actually an electoral strength for her. Although her greatest strength at the moment is that, frankly, she has nothing whatsoever to lose.

    Interesting idea, but surely she wouldn't do that.

    Also, doesn't evidence of last two weeks suggest Parliamentary opposition will fade away.

    Three weeks ago, the news headlines were all about the EU Withdrawal Bill having several hundred amendments, Amendment Paper running to hundreds of pages, it was all going to be impossible to get through.

    Now this week the EU Withdrawal bill is sailing through the Commons without anyone in the media even bothering to report on it.
  • BBC prepares for Hamilton-Froome-Farah no-show at Spoty awards night
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 8,727
    MikeL said:

    TudorRose said:

    I think TMay has an opportunity to show the 'strong' (if not stable) leadership. If she is able to get a deal with the EU but without the agreement of the DUP then she could call an immediate general election (don't all groan at once). Corbyn won't oppose it given the current polls and his age (which at some stage is going to work against him either physically or mentally).

    TMay will argue that supporting her is to support 'sensible' Brexit. She can use DUP and UKIP opposition as evidence that she is avoiding hard Brexit and the opposition of Lib-Dems and hard-core remainers as evidence that she is carrying out the referendum result. It would expose Labour's (lack of) Brexit policy and forestall a Tory leadership contest (at least in the short term). Tory MPs who don't support the deal would be deselected (or choose to defect) and the member for Rushcliffe might finally retire! The fact that May is negotiating a 'middle' way is actually an electoral strength for her. Although her greatest strength at the moment is that, frankly, she has nothing whatsoever to lose.

    Interesting idea, but surely she wouldn't do that.

    Also, doesn't evidence of last two weeks suggest Parliamentary opposition will fade away.

    Three weeks ago, the news headlines were all about the EU Withdrawal Bill having several hundred amendments, Amendment Paper running to hundreds of pages, it was all going to be impossible to get through.

    Now this week the EU Withdrawal bill is sailing through the Commons without anyone in the media even bothering to report on it.
    Remainers were noisy because they knew they didn't have the votes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    edited December 2017
    Do they still have no devolved government in NI?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,209
    I'd love to read the thread after Remain won the referendum, with Meeks et al "reaching out" to the Leavers.
  • You never go full REMOANER!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 28,044
    edited December 2017

    I'd love to read the thread after Remain won the referendum, with Meeks et al "reaching out" to the Leavers.

    He's not interested in reaching to anyone, or being reached out to - if anyone on the other side does concede a point to him he just ignores it and acts as though everyone is the very worst example of that side regardless, while pretending to be reasonable in return. As smart as he is that must be deliberate.

    The government has definitely handled a tough job poorly in a lot of ways, including the reaching out to remainers (of whom many at the top in government were on that side) and deserves much criticism for that however.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948
    The detail of the AlphaZero chess win is quite astonishing... but we're going to have to get used to this kind of thing becoming commonplace:
    https://en.chessbase.com/post/the-future-is-here-alphazero-learns-chess
  • You never go full REMOANER!

    Good evening Dr P. Just to let you know that I did some yellow-penning today - did the Grand Central service from Doncaster to Bradford via Pontefract so did the Knottingley avoiding line.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,209
    kle4 said:

    I'd love to read the thread after Remain won the referendum, with Meeks et al "reaching out" to the Leavers.

    He's not interested in reaching to anyone, or being reached out to - if anyone on the other side does concede a point to him he just ignores it and acts as though everyone is the very worst example of that side regardless, while pretending to be reasonable in return. As smart as he is that must be deliberate.

    The government has definitely handled a tough job poorly in a lot of ways, including the reaching out to remainers (of whom many at the top in government were on that side) and deserves much criticism for that however.
    It's obviously personally painful for him. I pity him.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,576


    It's not just that opposition politician from Germany, you know.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948
    Essexit said:



    It's not just that opposition politician from Germany, you know.

    Less the muscles from Brussels; more the dunderhead from Dendermonde...

  • FishingFishing Posts: 298
    I'd be entirely happy with Northern Ireland joining the Republic if that's what the (bare) majority wants. It has always been a financial drain and a political embarassment. Whether the Republic could cope with a million violently discontented citizens is another matter. But we can't let the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog, which is what seems to be happening at the moment.
  • Nigelb said:

    Essexit said:



    It's not just that opposition politician from Germany, you know.

    Less the muscles from Brussels; more the dunderhead from Dendermonde...

    They definitely don't want us to change our minds and Remain, do they?

    Therefore the only explanation for the EU's behaviour towards us is spite.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948

    Nigelb said:

    Essexit said:



    It's not just that opposition politician from Germany, you know.

    Less the muscles from Brussels; more the dunderhead from Dendermonde...

    They definitely don't want us to change our minds and Remain, do they?

    Therefore the only explanation for the EU's behaviour towards us is spite.
    I think Greece gave them the taste for cracking the whip.
    Power, once experienced, is not often relinquished voluntarily.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,581
    Essexit said:



    It's not just that opposition politician from Germany, you know.

    Looks like I'm not the only guy who gets his glasses online from SelectSpecs.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,209
    I think Meeks Syndrome might be centred in self-hatred. I joked about it on the last thread by pointing out how counter-productive his tactics are, and that he ought to man and take responsibility for the result.

    But I really think he knows he didn't do enough for his side, and wishes so hard he'd done more. All this lashing out at us is just public self-harm; seeming to attack the others, but really just tearing apart his reputation as a fine thinker.

    Armchair psychiatrists should be enjoying it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 13,692
    edited December 2017

    If Brexiteers are responsible for the break up of the UK then they should be physically branded as traitors, even if it is Northern Ireland.

    I welcome the breakup of the UK even without Brexit. Scotland could be a fine and honourable neighbour rather than a surly sibling. Ireland ideally should be united.

    But as always this should be with the support of the majority in those countries.

    Personally I would say thatnif Brexit was the catalyst that resolved the Irish question that has rumbled on for centuries then that in itself would be a great outcome.
  • Brummies*, thick as mince.

    An internet "prankster" had to be freed by firefighters after cementing his head inside a microwave oven.

    West Midlands Fire Service said it took an hour to free the man after they were called to a house in Fordhouses, Wolverhampton.

    Friends had managed to feed an air tube into the 22-year-old's mouth to help him breathe, the service said.

    Watch Commander Shaun Dakin said the man "could quite easily have suffocated or have been seriously injured".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-42271150

    *I’ve just enraged most of the Black Country.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 4,234
    Fishing said:

    I'd be entirely happy with Northern Ireland joining the Republic if that's what the (bare) majority wants. It has always been a financial drain and a political embarassment. Whether the Republic could cope with a million violently discontented citizens is another matter. But we can't let the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog, which is what seems to be happening at the moment.

    God, no, not another bare majority outcome. Please let it be 60:40 or better - I don't mind which way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited December 2017

    Brummies*, thick as mince.

    An internet "prankster" had to be freed by firefighters after cementing his head inside a microwave oven.

    West Midlands Fire Service said it took an hour to free the man after they were called to a house in Fordhouses, Wolverhampton.

    Friends had managed to feed an air tube into the 22-year-old's mouth to help him breathe, the service said.

    Watch Commander Shaun Dakin said the man "could quite easily have suffocated or have been seriously injured".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-42271150

    *I’ve just enraged most of the Black Country.

    Their channel has 3 million subscribers on YouTube! And their videos regularly get a million views.

    Probably their fan base are the same idiots trading crypto kitties.
  • kle4 said:

    I'd love to read the thread after Remain won the referendum, with Meeks et al "reaching out" to the Leavers.

    He's not interested in reaching to anyone, or being reached out to - if anyone on the other side does concede a point to him he just ignores it and acts as though everyone is the very worst example of that side regardless, while pretending to be reasonable in return. As smart as he is that must be deliberate.

    The government has definitely handled a tough job poorly in a lot of ways, including the reaching out to remainers (of whom many at the top in government were on that side) and deserves much criticism for that however.
    The Leavers on here divide into three (leaving out the mindless abuse that so many indulge in when they have no substantive response):

    1) yes, the immigration stufff was frightfully gauche, now can we just forget about it?
    2) the immigration stuff was entirely irrelevant and no one should be talking about it now
    3) the immigration stuff was fantastic and was the whole point, so deal with it

    I haven't seen any reaching out or any attempt to build common ground with Remain supporters from any of these three groups. This isn't a new point of mine. I've been making it for over a year. And Leavers still have no real interest in it or in considering what might be required as a framework.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 18,207

    Game on, unless the DUP bugger it up again.

    That what she said on Monday
  • Owen thingy and Richard bacon on QT...that’s a no from me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 37,532
    What a ludicrous poll. First it puts the question of the hardest of Brexits only when the issue of Citizens' rights is almost settled and as of tonight the border issue is nearing completion it seems.

    Second discussion would never ever be asked anyway, the simple question would be 'do you want to leave the UK or not?' for which every poll shiws about 2/3 of NI voters would say a clear NO.

    Thirdly of course that question would never be asked as long as the DUP win most seats in Northern Ireland
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    That's a very heavily loaded question. The last time Lucid Talk put the question in neutral terms, in October, people favoured the UK by 56% to 34%.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 2,126
    HYUFD said:

    What a ludicrous poll. First it puts the question of the hardest of Brexits only when the issue of Citizens' rights is almost settled and as of tonight the border issue is nearing completion it seems.

    Second discussion would never ever be asked anyway, the simple question would be 'do you want to leave the UK or not?' for which every poll shiws about 2/3 of NI voters would say a clear NO.

    Thirdly of course that question would never be asked as long as the DUP win most seats in Northern Ireland

    ....And fourthly, it doesn't give an answer that HYUFD likes, so it must be ludicrous. :smile:
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,209
    I think she is quite likely to be resilient. Maybe remarkably so.

    She's given no indication that she's been at all ruffled by this. She may well have a string of Yes Minister Euro-sausages (or more likely fudgey compromises) agreed with the negotiators.

    Neither side, even in any of the contentious issues, wants an angry non-settlement. But they know they have to handle the PR well, to make as many of the plebs think they're winning as possible.

    The DUP may be a fly in the ointment, or they may be playing along as a potential fly in the ointment, to help themselves get more of what we want. If they're really the fly, that might mean that they actually want a hard border. I so hope that's not what they want.

    Many points will be argued about in public, with a pre-agreed compromise in place. We'll argue about the extremes of the argument, and end up content with the compromise.

    At least, I hope this is what's happening! Obviously, even if my hopes are realised, it still has to pass the EU27. This could be hard work, and I hope we have people working hard on what we need to agree with each EU member for them to sign off our preferred FTA.

    If she can get us a fair and workable deal, and the economy doesn't collapse, then she'll have exceeded almost everyone's expectations.

    If she does she'll be as loved as she looked liked she would be at the election, until the election.. My remainer mum is really annoyed that politicians and the public, aren't supporting her and the UK in the negotiations.

    I think it might be worth betting on her being PM for the years+ option, for a few quid. I don't know the years or odds.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 19,519
    *if* the DUP in Parliament are satisfied, then I suspect the deal is done. Nigel Dodds is the go-to man.
  • Why oh why won't someone poll the Irish on whether they want to rejoin the UK and play their part in this marvellous journey upon which we're about to embark? I'm sure their answers would give the EUSSR komissars pause for thought.
  • NEW THREAD

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,939

    Why oh why won't someone poll the Irish on whether they want to rejoin the UK and play their part in this marvellous journey upon which we're about to embark? I'm sure their answers would give the EUSSR komissars pause for thought.

    Arron Banks could surely put his hand in his pocket for such a poll.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 886

    HYUFD said:

    What a ludicrous poll. First it puts the question of the hardest of Brexits only when the issue of Citizens' rights is almost settled and as of tonight the border issue is nearing completion it seems.

    Second discussion would never ever be asked anyway, the simple question would be 'do you want to leave the UK or not?' for which every poll shiws about 2/3 of NI voters would say a clear NO.

    Thirdly of course that question would never be asked as long as the DUP win most seats in Northern Ireland

    ....And fourthly, it doesn't give an answer that HYUFD likes, so it must be ludicrous. :smile:
    Even if they agree some fudge on regulatory allignment minus for northern ireland there is still the need to actually get a deal with the EU that avoids a car crash Brexit, which would reopen the border question all over again.

    So this problem isn't going to go away.
  • kle4 said:

    I'd love to read the thread after Remain won the referendum, with Meeks et al "reaching out" to the Leavers.

    He's not interested in reaching to anyone, or being reached out to - if anyone on the other side does concede a point to him he just ignores it and acts as though everyone is the very worst example of that side regardless, while pretending to be reasonable in return. As smart as he is that must be deliberate.

    The government has definitely handled a tough job poorly in a lot of ways, including the reaching out to remainers (of whom many at the top in government were on that side) and deserves much criticism for that however.
    The Leavers on here divide into three (leaving out the mindless abuse that so many indulge in when they have no substantive response):

    1) yes, the immigration stufff was frightfully gauche, now can we just forget about it?
    2) the immigration stuff was entirely irrelevant and no one should be talking about it now
    3) the immigration stuff was fantastic and was the whole point, so deal with it

    I haven't seen any reaching out or any attempt to build common ground with Remain supporters from any of these three groups. This isn't a new point of mine. I've been making it for over a year. And Leavers still have no real interest in it or in considering what might be required as a framework.
    You have indeed been making it for over a year. It was boring and idiotic when you started and is equally just as boring and idiotic now.
  • surbiton said:

    The mood is decisively moving towards NO BREXIT. Thanks, Theresa !

    Citation required.

    On the other hand, those who know what they're talking about, say:

    One strand of comment that has been common amongst those who oppose Britain’s withdrawal from the EU is that when the alleged difficulties and consequences of Brexit become clear to voters they will come to regret the decision to Leave – or at least will wish to sue for a soft Brexit. The experience of the last six months suggests this logic may be faulty......

    Rather than coming to the conclusion that the progress of the Brexit process so far means they came to the wrong decision about the EU, it seems that Leave voters are inclined to the view that those responsible for the process – including the EU as well as the UK government – are (from their perspective) failing to make progress towards the kind of future arrangement that they would largely still like to see. In short, they blame the actors in the Brexit process not the act of leaving itself. If the talks about Brexit continue to be difficult and if the economy does indeed begin to suffer, we should not presume that voters in Britain will change their minds about the merits of Brexit. Rather they may simply blame politicians - on both sides of the channel – for their apparent failure to deliver what those who voted for Leave have all along said they want.


    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EU-Briefing-Paper-11-Half-time-brexit-negotiations.pdf
This discussion has been closed.