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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexi

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay has probably ensured that she’ll remain as PM until Brexit

Like all negotiations this one went right to the edge. Something had to be agreed by this weekend to ensure that things moved to the next stage, but both the EU and the UK have been flexible and Mrs. May can take some credit.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • Sounds about right.
  • Fingers crossed phase II has a similar positive outcome
  • Quite a change of tune......
  • Fingers crossed phase II has a similar positive outcome

  • That said if Mrs May is toppled in 2018 it’ll be from the Tombstone wing of the party.
  • "Just rejoice at that news and congratulate our EU negotiating team and our PM. Rejoice!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,770
    May’s played a blinder in terms of boxing in the hard Brexiteers. The important factor now is how they respond when it sinks in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,020
    A deal that seems to have pissed off both Sturgeon and Farage :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    May’s played a blinder in terms of boxing in the hard Brexiteers. The important factor now is how they respond when it sinks in.

    Are you ready to pay up in your bet with SeanT?
  • Quite a change of tune......

    Is it really? I think many pundits thought TMay would remain as PM until 2019 for the following reasons:

    (a. A leadership election during Brexit negotiations would be difficult
    (b. There's no one better to replace her.

    I've moved back and forth on this issue though, but then again I'm not apart of the pundit class....
  • "Just rejoice at that news and congratulate our EU negotiating team and our PM. Rejoice!"

    50 billion to the EU in protection money and CJEU oversight for nearly a decade ?

    I thought they were red lines for you?
  • FPT: Suppose UKIP rises again. Which party does that harm more?

    It might be Labour.

    Right now the high polling for both parties is motivated by blues worried about the friend of Hamas, and reds worried about the baby-eating Tories. If that's accurate, I'd suggest reds might be likelier to shift than blues. Could be wrong, of course, but worth considering.

    Will the Lib Dems advocate rejoining?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,268
    "Your search - brexit fudge - did not match any shopping results."

    This could be a gap worth exploiting in the Christmas gift market. I'd have bought some for Mr Meeks if there were any for sale.
  • Pulpstar said:

    A deal that seems to have pissed off both Sturgeon and Farage :)

    Oh no.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 8,828

    Morning all. I see that Nick Palmer and I were right.

    The pundits need to reassess things. Theresa May is going to bring off a reasonable Brexit deal. She might not be the most accomplished of politicians, especially on the presentation side, but she is tenacious.

    Given the over-the-top media and political coverage over the past few months, any kind of half-reasonable final deal which allows the planes to keep flying and avoids 24-hour delays at Dover is going to look like a triumph. Assuming, as now seems highly likely that the EU does actually want to come to a reasonable arrangement, any Brexit damage to the economy is likely to be muted and therefore not a big political issue. My prediction is that Theresa May will retire with grace having delivered what she set out to deliver on Brexit, and the election will be fought by a new Tory leader (and not one of the current front-runners). Predictions of the electoral demise of the Conservative Party are premature.



  • Quite a change of tune......

    Is it really? I think many pundits thought TMay would remain as PM until 2019 for the following reasons:

    (a. A leadership election during Brexit negotiations would be difficult
    (b. There's no one better to replace her.

    I've moved back and forth on this issue though, but then again I'm not apart of the pundit class....
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/iff-this-is-true-then-the-chances-of-a-2018-general-election-have-increased-the-dup-will-bring-down-mrs-mays-government/

    Read and weep...or chortle.....
  • Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,770
    MaxPB said:

    May’s played a blinder in terms of boxing in the hard Brexiteers. The important factor now is how they respond when it sinks in.

    Are you ready to pay up in your bet with SeanT?
    I fight on. I fight to win...

    A Brexit that pleases nobody became a bit more likely today, but only a bit.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 27,651
    edited December 2017
    On citizens’ rights, the European Court of Justice will have a limited role. But there’ll be a sunset clause on its involvement. The crucial point about this is that it makes it harder to use this arrangement as a beachhead for ECJ jurisdiction on a whole host of other issues. On the Irish border, the UK has largely succeeded in pushing the issue into the next phase which is what it wanted.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/12/theresa-may-must-now-decide-between-the-two-factions-in-her-brexit-cabinet/
  • With the far left in charge of Labour anyone predicting the electoral demise of the Conservative party is a fool. We may now find out how many of the 13 million votes Labour got in June were for socialism and how many were against a Hard or No Deal Brexit.

    In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.

    Hard Brexit would have broken our economy and taken the Tories with it - that was the Extinction Level Event I referred to. The Tories will survive now that's clear, how others react will judge how well they do in the polls.

    Given our absolute capitulation on pretty much everything I can see a quick revival of UKIP. And remember that they were neck and next with the Tories not that long ago...
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,902

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    With the far left in charge of Labour anyone predicting the electoral demise of the Conservative party is a fool. We may now find out how many of the 13 million votes Labour got in June were for socialism and how many were against a Hard or No Deal Brexit.

    In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.

    Hard Brexit would have broken our economy and taken the Tories with it - that was the Extinction Level Event I referred to. The Tories will survive now that's clear, how others react will judge how well they do in the polls.

    Given our absolute capitulation on pretty much everything I can see a quick revival of UKIP. And remember that they were neck and next with the Tories not that long ago...
    UKIP resurgence hurts Labour as well as the Tories (maybe more).
  • TGOHF said:
    Thats very good. Sig less than the £50bn + means it can be spun as a victory for the UK.
  • Quite a change of tune......

    Is it really? I think many pundits thought TMay would remain as PM until 2019 for the following reasons:

    (a. A leadership election during Brexit negotiations would be difficult
    (b. There's no one better to replace her.

    I've moved back and forth on this issue though, but then again I'm not apart of the pundit class....
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/iff-this-is-true-then-the-chances-of-a-2018-general-election-have-increased-the-dup-will-bring-down-mrs-mays-government/

    Read and weep...or chortle.....
    And if anyone had followed the betting advice therein they’d have made a profit.

    Or do you deny the odds of a 2018 election increased on Monday ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.
  • "Just rejoice at that news and congratulate our EU negotiating team and our PM. Rejoice!"

    50 billion to the EU in protection money and CJEU oversight for nearly a decade ?

    I thought they were red lines for you?
    Even in the Falklands we lost two destroyers and two frigates and other vessels, but we still won.
  • eekeek Posts: 1,962
    MaxPB said:

    With the far left in charge of Labour anyone predicting the electoral demise of the Conservative party is a fool. We may now find out how many of the 13 million votes Labour got in June were for socialism and how many were against a Hard or No Deal Brexit.

    In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.

    Hard Brexit would have broken our economy and taken the Tories with it - that was the Extinction Level Event I referred to. The Tories will survive now that's clear, how others react will judge how well they do in the polls.

    Given our absolute capitulation on pretty much everything I can see a quick revival of UKIP. And remember that they were neck and next with the Tories not that long ago...
    UKIP resurgence hurts Labour as well as the Tories (maybe more).
    Why? If freedom of movement disappears (or at least appears to) their raison D'être goes with it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    TGOHF said:
    Thats very good. Sig less than the £50bn + means it can be spun as a victory for the UK.
    It's our net contribution per year up to 2021, plus a few bits of spending and taking on the pension liabilities of our Eurocrats. It's a fair amount of money.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 870
    I think that's a fair summary.
    There have been comments about needing to meet the needs of the middle 80% and facing down the 10% on either extreme. Sounds like this deal begins to do that, unlike most of the rhetoric.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,417
    edited December 2017

    Quite a change of tune......

    Is it really? I think many pundits thought TMay would remain as PM until 2019 for the following reasons:

    (a. A leadership election during Brexit negotiations would be difficult
    (b. There's no one better to replace her.

    I've moved back and forth on this issue though, but then again I'm not apart of the pundit class....
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/iff-this-is-true-then-the-chances-of-a-2018-general-election-have-increased-the-dup-will-bring-down-mrs-mays-government/

    Read and weep...or chortle.....
    I hope most people on here are significantly more informed at betting than they are about negotiating strategies! There hasn't half been some twaddle spouted....
  • There aren't many complete certainties in politics, but UKIP being as dead as a Monty Python parrot is one of them.
  • "Just rejoice at that news and congratulate our EU negotiating team and our PM. Rejoice!"

    50 billion to the EU in protection money
    Looks to be 30 to 39 billion apparently
  • DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



  • RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.

    Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. It could end up being meaningful, it could end up be symbolic. TBD. If it is the former then many Brexit voters will be pleased. If it is the latter, they will not be.

  • A deal has been done but it hasn't been agreed. I'm surprised at the amount of credit publicly being given to May - I'm guessing the whips have been active. However, there's a lot of detail that a lot of Eurosceptic MPs are not going to like.

    I think it's a considerably too early to say that May will see Britain through as PM. She could easily get the deal through the Commons - Labour will probably back it - but if there's a significant rebellion and May goes over their heads with Labour votes, that could easily trigger a leadership challenge.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.
  • I'll take that. Not perfect, but thats politics.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited December 2017

    May’s played a blinder in terms of boxing in the hard Brexiteers. The important factor now is how they respond when it sinks in.

    Even the prospect of a second referendum had the tommy mair types threatening to suicide bomb brussels;

    If this ever happened I would either kill myself, launch a suicide attack on Brussels, or sell up everything and emigrate to Canada or New Zealand.

    I don't want to live in a chastened or eunuch country run by Europhiles and the Left.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/07/support-growing-for-another-euref-in-an-unlikely-publication-the-brexit-backing-spectator/

    I think it's highly likely we'll see further political violence, sadly.
  • Claim that the bill is 'less than 4 years annual membership' - nett or gross?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    Claim that the bill is 'less than 4 years annual membership' - nett or gross?

    It's the same as our net contribution up to 2021.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,993

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    Sounds about right to me , however both of us could not predict our way out of a one way street.If the last GE was anything to go by.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,417

    Given our absolute capitulation on pretty much everything I can see a quick revival of UKIP. And remember that they were neck and next with the Tories not that long ago...

    To do what? There is going to be no appetite to reopen this deal, either at Westminster or amongst the voters.

    Brexit 2 - this time we put the nation through another bruising interlude to, er, get a bit more money back? Or what, Mr. Farage? The UK is now independent. Job done. He would have more success selling the voters on the benefits of Betamax 2 than Brexit 2.....



  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

    Have many commentators written this up as a 'victory for Ireland' yet?

    So far several (Rentoul, Forsyth, Telegraph) have said 'UK got more or less what it wanted'.......
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,444
    Scott_P said:
    Given the only thing the contributed to the referendum was attacks on their own side I think they can be ignored.
  • "Just rejoice at that news and congratulate our EU negotiating team and our PM. Rejoice!"

    50 billion to the EU in protection money and CJEU oversight for nearly a decade ?

    I thought they were red lines for you?
    Thing is TSE, as I have said on here many times before, the alternative is pay EU protection money for ever and ECJ oversight for ever. Instead we pay the equivalent of about 3 years contributions and have ECJ oversight of EU citizens rights for 8 years.

    Compared to staying in that is clearly a much better solution.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.
    Freedom of Movement is enshrined within the rules of the Single Market. We have just signed a deal to be fully aligned with the rules of the single market. That means keeping freedom of movement.

    You are an Emperor's New Clothes person. You can insist we are ending FoM all you like. But as we "leave" and FoM continues as part of our being fully aligned, it won't take long for someone to say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis". And already on the Daily Blackshirt they can see straight through it - May sold out.
  • The next big battle is going to be over the length of the transition deal. It will be a war of attrition.

    This is an awkward one for the UK, because during any transition period we'll be paying the full whack (reasonably enough, it has to be accepted). Therefore it is in the interests of the EU to make all sorts of difficulties about the start date of the trade agreement which will follow and replace the transitional arrangement, and offer to extend the transition to avoid another cliff-edge. Some of those difficulties might even be genuine. It will be very hard for the UK to keep the timing on track.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,417
    The lower end? Way lower than the lower end. We had a thread here saying it was actually going to be 100 billion!!!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.
    FoM has yet to be discussed. Possibly passed off as exemption for EEA states from visa requirements.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

    Have many commentators written this up as a 'victory for Ireland' yet?

    So far several (Rentoul, Forsyth, Telegraph) have said 'UK got more or less what it wanted'.......

    Yep - the Telegraph had it down as a UK win, but did not say why. The Irish got what they wanted: a written guarantee of no change to the status of the border. If the UK wants to see that as a victory too, what's the problem? Win-wins are always the best.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

    That is a complicated sentence but the scope of it is restricted to areas of north south co-operation. And what are they going to do if we decided to restrict those areas of co-operation (not that I can see any reason that we would want to)? I would guess the DUP are pretty confident this doesn't tie their hands in any material way.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,444

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.
    Freedom of Movement is enshrined within the rules of the Single Market. We have just signed a deal to be fully aligned with the rules of the single market. That means keeping freedom of movement.

    You are an Emperor's New Clothes person. You can insist we are ending FoM all you like. But as we "leave" and FoM continues as part of our being fully aligned, it won't take long for someone to say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis". And already on the Daily Blackshirt they can see straight through it - May sold out.
    I think you are wrong RP - you may wish it to be so but it's not happening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited December 2017
    Excellent morning for May and the country. A border deal reached and the European Commission has now recommended sufficient progress has been made to move to FTA talks and even Sir Keir Starmer on Sky news now says he is 'pleased' progress has been made and accepts the role for the ECJ on Citizens rights etc.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040

    Hard Brexiteers are furious of course, Aaron Banks has called the deal 'a betrayal of 17.5 million Leave voters' but May was always going to have to break with them eventually to make progress with the EU
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,342
    edited December 2017
    Betting angle. May to leave office before Brexit date 1.5 - 2.1 UK to leave the EU before PM resigns.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.130939030
  • So re Southam's and others points about Labour.

    I think it's always been very clear that many of those who voted Labour did not do so because they were massive Socialists. As Stephen Bush has noted:

    What there is considerable evidence of is that the average under-40 is actually less sympathetic towards nationalisation, redistribution or left-wing policies in general than the old. What separates them from the Conservative-voting over-55s is that they are a) more socially liberal than older voters, b) they dislike Brexit both as an assault on their cultural values and because they fear it will make them poorer, and c) they can’t get on the housing ladder.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/11/no-really-young-people-don-t-vote-labour-because-they-re-communist

    So I don't think we need to 'find' that out: we in fact already know it. For that matter, I think Corbyn and McDonnell both know this - it's the Owen Jones' of the world that don't.

    But going back to my first point, this is why I'm bemused by the conclusion one PBer made that Labour won't want the focus to go back to domestic issues. Er, they will. As noted before by (ironically Tory PBers) Brexit is not the greatest issue for Corbyn, shall we say. His position lacks clarity and during PMQs this week he didn't really land a blow on TMay in what was a Brexit themed PMQs. It is not an issue where he can speak with the greatest confidence because Labour is attempting to do a dance where they keep both Labour Leavers happy, and their Remainer voters happy as well.

    Where Corbyn actually does well is on domestic issues. He has made his hay on issues concerning inter-generational unfairness - tuition fees, housing, social mobility, the costs of living - as well as on issues such as the universal credit. The aspect of Brexit which Corbyn capitalised on was the values gap that Brexit revealed - the more socially liberal Remainers versus the more socially conservative Leavers (obviously, there are exceptions).

    I think that the next GE will end in a hung parliament if I had to make a prediction. As I don't think that any economic disaster will happy after today's events, Corbyn cannot rely on that to lead him to a majority. But the issues that Bush outlined as to why many young voters - Corbynista or Conservative Remainer - voted for Labour are not really changed by today's events, which is why Corbyn is likely to keep his coalition of voters. What he could struggle with, is expanding that coalition of voters, I think.

  • New Statesman take:

    On citizens' rights, the final agreement is closer to the original British proposal than the EU27's, though the terms of family reunion are more compassionate than those the British government wanted: there will be no earnings threshold (or other bureaucratic hurdles faced by people from outside the EU) fo relatives living in the UK on or before the date of withdrawal. However, the path has been cleared for a more draconian approach in future.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/12/key-points-brexit-deal-and-what-it-means-theresa-may
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.

    Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. It could end up being meaningful, it could end up be symbolic. TBD. If it is the former then many Brexit voters will be pleased. If it is the latter, they will not be.

    FOM will be replaced by a work permits system
  • Quite a change of tune......

    Is it really? I think many pundits thought TMay would remain as PM until 2019 for the following reasons:

    (a. A leadership election during Brexit negotiations would be difficult
    (b. There's no one better to replace her.

    I've moved back and forth on this issue though, but then again I'm not apart of the pundit class....
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/04/iff-this-is-true-then-the-chances-of-a-2018-general-election-have-increased-the-dup-will-bring-down-mrs-mays-government/

    Read and weep...or chortle.....
    That's just two people (from the tweets).
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,902

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.
    Freedom of Movement is enshrined within the rules of the Single Market. We have just signed a deal to be fully aligned with the rules of the single market. That means keeping freedom of movement.

    You are an Emperor's New Clothes person. You can insist we are ending FoM all you like. But as we "leave" and FoM continues as part of our being fully aligned, it won't take long for someone to say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis". And already on the Daily Blackshirt they can see straight through it - May sold out.
    No it doesn't. We WILL NOT be members of the Single Market. Alignment is not equal to membership. We will stay aligned which will reduce the costs of compliance to export/import to and from Europe, but we will still be a third country. There will be a customs border.

    As a third country, there is no way the EU can insist on freedom of movement.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,417

    The next big battle is going to be over the length of the transition deal. It will be a war of attrition.

    This is an awkward one for the UK, because during any transition period we'll be paying the full whack (reasonably enough, it has to be accepted). Therefore it is in the interests of the EU to make all sorts of difficulties about the start date of the trade agreement which will follow and replace the transitional arrangement, and offer to extend the transition to avoid another cliff-edge. Some of those difficulties might even be genuine. It will be very hard for the UK to keep the timing on track.

    But the EU wants that 40-45 billion REALLY badly.....they've already spent it. May can keep pointing to her Useful Headbangers, still arguing "no deal until the full deal - we can still go WTO if they want to play hard ball".

    May has a better hand than many give her credit for. I suggest most of the punditocracy shouldn't play poker against her. She's learnt from her dreadful flop this summer....
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,156

    With the far left in charge of Labour anyone predicting the electoral demise of the Conservative party is a fool. We may now find out how many of the 13 million votes Labour got in June were for socialism and how many were against a Hard or No Deal Brexit.

    In accepting that the EU27 holds the all the cards and moving to meet their red lines May has done a good job for the country. No Deal is now off the table, so once the government decides what it can realistically hope for within the context of today's agreement and the parameters set by the EU on an FTA, we will move towards resolution.

    Hard Brexit would have broken our economy and taken the Tories with it - that was the Extinction Level Event I referred to. The Tories will survive now that's clear, how others react will judge how well they do in the polls.

    Given our absolute capitulation on pretty much everything I can see a quick revival of UKIP. And remember that they were neck and next with the Tories not that long ago...
    I doubt UKIP will re-emerge - it may pick up a point or two but it has declined so far that it has effectively ceased to exist in many areas. One of the striking things about post-referendum politics is that support for a hard Brexit has evaporated and is now confined to a few Tory backbenchers and newspaper columnists.

    I think we will now move into a two-year "no change" transition in which the UK will remain in all the EU economic structure whilst the Tories try to decide what end state they are trying to get to. It's unlikely they will be able to resolve this, and the EU will have no incentive to move quickly on the trade talks, and so when the transition ends - only a year before the next general election is due - it is likely to be extended. So the UK will effectively move into an EEA position, which is practice is likely to become permanent. The only thing that could stop this happening is a revolt by Tory ultras, but it is not clear they have the numbers to make this happen.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400

    The next big battle is going to be over the length of the transition deal. It will be a war of attrition.

    This is an awkward one for the UK, because during any transition period we'll be paying the full whack (reasonably enough, it has to be accepted). Therefore it is in the interests of the EU to make all sorts of difficulties about the start date of the trade agreement which will follow and replace the transitional arrangement, and offer to extend the transition to avoid another cliff-edge. Some of those difficulties might even be genuine. It will be very hard for the UK to keep the timing on track.

    I agree that having a defined end point will have to be a UK priority. It may not be easy to achieve but there has to come a point where we stop subsidising them. The deal now effectively ties us into the current budget round. You can argue about whether that is fair given the 2 year period in Article 50 but that is where we are. We really cannot have any commitments, other than those we agree for specific things we want to be a part of, beyond that.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

    That is a complicated sentence but the scope of it is restricted to areas of north south co-operation. And what are they going to do if we decided to restrict those areas of co-operation (not that I can see any reason that we would want to)? I would guess the DUP are pretty confident this doesn't tie their hands in any material way.

    Yep - the Irish government has what it wants. There are a number of areas that impact on the GFA and the DUP will get what it wants, too: alignment applied across the UK. not just in Northern Ireland

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.



    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

    Have many commentators written this up as a 'victory for Ireland' yet?

    So far several (Rentoul, Forsyth, Telegraph) have said 'UK got more or less what it wanted'.......

    Yep - the Telegraph had it down as a UK win, but did not say why. The Irish got what they wanted: a written guarantee of no change to the status of the border. If the UK wants to see that as a victory too, what's the problem? Win-wins are always the best.

    Varadkar has definitely won. Ireland got what it wanted. In addition, on the trade front, they will be on the same side as the UK. One could argue, they need free trade with the UK more than the UK needs to trade with them.

    That is not the same for the rest of the EU whatever Brexiteers may think. As a proportion of their GDP, the EU trades far less that the UK does with them. In fact, the UK's exports are also inflated with gold sales which are basically trans-shipment of sales from the USA to the EU.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 2,775

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    I was so unaware that we wanted a hard border with SI
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,770
    John Redwood seems to be hopeful this deal can be torn up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    HYUFD said:

    Excellent morning for May and the country. A border deal reached and the European Commission has now recommended sufficient progress has been made to move to FTA talks and even Sir Keir Starmer on Sky news now says he is 'pleased' progress has been made and accepts the role for the ECJ on Citizens rights etc.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040

    Hard Brexiteers are furious of course, Aaron Banks has called the deal 'a betrayal of 17.5 million Leave voters' but May was always going to have to break with them eventually to make progress with the EU

    There are many strands of Brexiteers just as there were of leavers. Despite the fantasies of Banks, Farage and others they were never a cohesive, unified bloc. This one, for example, is quite content with what May has done. What she needs to do is find a consensus that a comfortable majority of both leavers and remainers can live with. This is a good first step.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.



    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

    That is a complicated sentence but the scope of it is restricted to areas of north south co-operation. And what are they going to do if we decided to restrict those areas of co-operation (not that I can see any reason that we would want to)? I would guess the DUP are pretty confident this doesn't tie their hands in any material way.

    Yep - the Irish government has what it wants. There are a number of areas that impact on the GFA and the DUP will get what it wants, too: alignment applied across the UK. not just in Northern Ireland

    I like the "alignment across the UK" bit. Thank you, Arlene !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    DavidL said:

    The next big battle is going to be over the length of the transition deal. It will be a war of attrition.

    This is an awkward one for the UK, because during any transition period we'll be paying the full whack (reasonably enough, it has to be accepted). Therefore it is in the interests of the EU to make all sorts of difficulties about the start date of the trade agreement which will follow and replace the transitional arrangement, and offer to extend the transition to avoid another cliff-edge. Some of those difficulties might even be genuine. It will be very hard for the UK to keep the timing on track.

    I agree that having a defined end point will have to be a UK priority. It may not be easy to achieve but there has to come a point where we stop subsidising them. The deal now effectively ties us into the current budget round. You can argue about whether that is fair given the 2 year period in Article 50 but that is where we are. We really cannot have any commitments, other than those we agree for specific things we want to be a part of, beyond that.
    6 years of talking. Sound OK to me.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,466
    Good morning all.

    A crude approximation of my previously expressed views: 'Common Market Good, Political Union Bad'.

    It's a shame that we're leaving the Single Market. However, while mass immigration doesn't really affect me, it's clear that ending FoM as currently constituted was important to many voters.

    Simply going off the reactions here and in the broader media, I'd say PM May has had a good day, and by God, she needed one.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 352
    edited December 2017



    Freedom of Movement is enshrined within the rules of the Single Market. We have just signed a deal to be fully aligned with the rules of the single market. That means keeping freedom of movement.

    You are an Emperor's New Clothes person. You can insist we are ending FoM all you like. But as we "leave" and FoM continues as part of our being fully aligned, it won't take long for someone to say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis". And already on the Daily Blackshirt they can see straight through it - May sold out.

    Today is why I loathe 'consensus' politics. When you don't have principles to fall back on, every half-arsed compromise can be passed off as a good thing. But it never is.

    May's deal has guaranteed that neither Remainers or Leavers will get anything they want. RP is correct in one aspect - you cannot be in the SM/CU without FOM. But FOM is not going to be conceded as it would invalidate the referendum result. Even the pathetic Tories are not going to be able to survive that.

    So RP is wrong about the outcome. We will end up accepting EU regulations WITHOUT getting the benefits of SM/CU membership.

    So the Remainers get nothing they want- we are not going to be in the SM or CU, not even 'under a new name.'

    Leavers will also get nothing they want - we will get a CETA FTA with no services but under SM/CU regulations which will make it impossible to do trade deals with other countries and impossible to control our own laws.

    So this great 'compromise' will lead to everyone losing, except the EU of course, who have outmanoeuvred May.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.

    Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. It could end up being meaningful, it could end up be symbolic. TBD. If it is the former then many Brexit voters will be pleased. If it is the latter, they will not be.

    FOM will be replaced by a work permits system
    Yes. FoM in all but name.
  • On FoM it will depend on what "full alignment with the rules (on FoM)" actually means. Royal Blue seems to not get that we've said no border between ROI and the UK, and between NI and GB. Which is why we've capitulated on the deal and said we will fully align with the rules of the SM and CU so that we can effectively be part of them after we leave.

    The EU have always made it clear that there is no cherry picking of the SM rules. We've committed to full alignment on those rules. Someone will have to blink, and the EU have repeatedly demonstrated that they will maintain the integrity of the rules. We either obey or there is no deal. And if there is no deal then there is no agreement on the Irish issue. And the whole thing falls apart again with regards to phase 2 of the talks.
  • Well I for one am glad that the Irish think it's a victory for them to have agreed that like the UK they won't put up a hard border.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 2,993
    surbiton said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.



    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    With respect that's a very simplistic way of looking at it. We never wanted a hard border and were completely relaxed about the current arrangements. The EU were concerned about the integrity of their single market and customs union, neither of which we will be a part of. Those concerns have been put to one side. Which is fine.

    See the final sentence of paragraph 49 of the Agreement.

    That is a complicated sentence but the scope of it is restricted to areas of north south co-operation. And what are they going to do if we decided to restrict those areas of co-operation (not that I can see any reason that we would want to)? I would guess the DUP are pretty confident this doesn't tie their hands in any material way.

    Yep - the Irish government has what it wants. There are a number of areas that impact on the GFA and the DUP will get what it wants, too: alignment applied across the UK. not just in Northern Ireland

    I like the "alignment across the UK" bit. Thank you, Arlene !
    So do I the DUP played a corker.Reverse swing been bowled at its best. Jacob Rees Mogg must like taking the new pink ball, in a day night match.
  • philiph said:

    DavidL said:

    The idea that Ireland could finally be resolved until our trading and other relationships with the EU as a whole were resolved was always completely bonkers and it looks as if the Irish have now had to accept that reality.

    As I said yesterday it seems to me that there is a growing, albeit extremely reluctant, acknowledgement on the part of the EU that we really mean to leave and that making it difficult is not going to stop us. Once they reconcile themselves to that idea the impetus towards reaching a deal that is as favourable to them in trade terms as the current arrangements in the Single Market will become irresistible. That doesn't mean that there won't be rows of course but £6bn of goods a week is a very serious amount of jobs to have on the line.

    There will be some that think that a more organised, competent, focussed government might have brought that reality home to the EU a little earlier and that it is the weakness of the current administration and possible collapse of the May government that gave the EU false hope. I think it is fair to say we have probably ended up paying more than we would have done in that alternate scenario but these are short term issues. The important thing is that we are leaving and they are free to carry on building the super state so many remainers still refuse to see. Good luck to them if that is what they want.

    Ireland has secured its red line - a written guarantee that there will be no change to the current status of the Irish border with the UK.

    The EU27 have got what they wanted from the UK and so we move to Phase Two. That's all this current round of negotiations was ever about.



    I was so unaware that we wanted a hard border with SI

    We don't - to the extent that we are prepared to state in writing that failure to find a technological solution to any issues created by our the final deal will see us commit to pan-UK regulatory alignment with the EU in all relevant areas.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,444
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.

    Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. It could end up being meaningful, it could end up be symbolic. TBD. If it is the former then many Brexit voters will be pleased. If it is the latter, they will not be.

    FOM will be replaced by a work permits system
    Yes. FoM in all but name.
    Not at all - limits on benefits, pension liabilities etc etc.

  • Well I for one am glad that the Irish think it's a victory for them to have agreed that like the UK they won't put up a hard border.

    Because the UK has agreed in writing to regulatory alignment as a back stop.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,417
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.

    Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. It could end up being meaningful, it could end up be symbolic. TBD. If it is the former then many Brexit voters will be pleased. If it is the latter, they will not be.

    FOM will be replaced by a work permits system
    Yes. FoM in all but name.
    You are 100% wrong.
  • The lower end? Way lower than the lower end. We had a thread here saying it was actually going to be 100 billion!!!
    It's in line with the majority of forecasts previously.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/05/uk-ready-pay-40bn-brexit-bill-eu-talks-trade/ - headline figure: £36billion.

    https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/ - UK government set to offer £18billion.

    Even the £100billion estimate had conditions:
    'Alex Barker and George Parker of the Financial Times says of the same negotiations that the UK will assume liabilities “worth up to €100bn” (£88bn). However, he says that the net figure (after deductions for payments made to the UK) could fall to less than half of that – “with the UK side pressing for an implied figure of €40-45bn” (£35-£40bn).'

    It's amazing how one day of things going *as expected* is now a stunning victory, just days after a multifaceted debacle that, in one of its aspects, has been kicked down the line rather than resolved. That's enough for it to be May's Stalingrad apparently.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    edited December 2017
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.

    Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. It could end up being meaningful, it could end up be symbolic. TBD. If it is the former then many Brexit voters will be pleased. If it is the latter, they will not be.

    FOM will be replaced by a work permits system
    Yes. FoM in all but name.
    Absolutely not. Freedom of movement means precisely that, anyone can come here to study or travel or look for work even without a job offer, work permits will only be given to those workers whose skills we need
  • Well I for one am glad that the Irish think it's a victory for them to have agreed that like the UK they won't put up a hard border.

    Because the UK has agreed in writing to regulatory alignment as a back stop.
    As a back stop which won't be needed, and only to the extent needed to avoid a hard border (which is very little).
  • eekeek Posts: 1,962
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Yep - May has done herself, the Conservative party and the country as a whole a huge favour in accepting that the EU27 are in charge of an orderly Brexit.

    Jeremy Corbyn will never be Prime Minister.

    And freedom of movement will end. The central demand of the people who voted for Brexit, rather than those who kept the flame burning in the willderness, will be kept.

    Ending freedom of movement covers a multitude of sins. It could end up being meaningful, it could end up be symbolic. TBD. If it is the former then many Brexit voters will be pleased. If it is the latter, they will not be.

    FOM will be replaced by a work permits system
    Yes. FoM in all but name.
    Given the insanity of our benefits system - that's all we can do. Freedom of Movement to Denmark/ France / Germany doesn't allow you to claim benefits from day 2.

    When we look back in history Blair / Brown will be regarded as the worst Prime Ministers of all time..


  • Freedom of Movement is enshrined within the rules of the Single Market. We have just signed a deal to be fully aligned with the rules of the single market. That means keeping freedom of movement.

    You are an Emperor's New Clothes person. You can insist we are ending FoM all you like. But as we "leave" and FoM continues as part of our being fully aligned, it won't take long for someone to say "but I can see your cock Mr Davis". And already on the Daily Blackshirt they can see straight through it - May sold out.

    Today is why I loathe 'consensus' politics. When you don't have principles to fall back on, every half-arsed compromise can be passed off as a good thing. But it never is.

    May's deal has guaranteed that neither Remainers or Leavers will get anything they want. RP is correct in one aspect - you cannot be in the SM/CU without FOM. But FOM is not going to be conceded as it would invalidate the referendum result. Even the pathetic Tories are not going to be able to survive that.

    So RP is wrong about the outcome. We will end up accepting EU regulations WITHOUT getting the benefits of SM/CU membership.

    So the Remainers get nothing they want- we are not going to be in the SM or CU, not even 'under a new name.'

    Leavers will also get nothing they want - we will get a CETA FTA with no services but under SM/CU regulations which will make it impossible to do trade deals with other countries and impossible to control our own laws.

    So this great 'compromise' will lead to everyone losing, except the EU of course, who have outmanoeuvred May.
    Broadly how I see it. We will leave the SM/CU but continue to be fully compliant with their rules. We "leave" but continue to act exactly the way we did before we left.

    Which as you say means no trade deals elsewhere. We cannot do anything which makes us non-compliant with SM rules or the agreement falls apart.

    And I keep banging on about FoM because this is the bit that I keep being told so important to so many bigots and racists. They want an end to "foreigners". And yes, we will end FoM. And replace it with "FoM" because we have to be fully aligned to all 4 pillars if we want a deal on services (which we have to have). So we will have formally stopped Freedom of Movement. And replaced it with no restrictions on EU nationals coming to work here.

    Anyone happy...?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 39,624
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Excellent morning for May and the country. A border deal reached and the European Commission has now recommended sufficient progress has been made to move to FTA talks and even Sir Keir Starmer on Sky news now says he is 'pleased' progress has been made and accepts the role for the ECJ on Citizens rights etc.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040

    Hard Brexiteers are furious of course, Aaron Banks has called the deal 'a betrayal of 17.5 million Leave voters' but May was always going to have to break with them eventually to make progress with the EU

    There are many strands of Brexiteers just as there were of leavers. Despite the fantasies of Banks, Farage and others they were never a cohesive, unified bloc. This one, for example, is quite content with what May has done. What she needs to do is find a consensus that a comfortable majority of both leavers and remainers can live with. This is a good first step.
    The FTA that ends free movement she is aiming for is that consensus
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,156

    On FoM it will depend on what "full alignment with the rules (on FoM)" actually means. Royal Blue seems to not get that we've said no border between ROI and the UK, and between NI and GB. Which is why we've capitulated on the deal and said we will fully align with the rules of the SM and CU so that we can effectively be part of them after we leave.

    The EU have always made it clear that there is no cherry picking of the SM rules. We've committed to full alignment on those rules. Someone will have to blink, and the EU have repeatedly demonstrated that they will maintain the integrity of the rules. We either obey or there is no deal. And if there is no deal then there is no agreement on the Irish issue. And the whole thing falls apart again with regards to phase 2 of the talks.

    And if we have to accept all the rules of the SM and CU people will begin to wonder what is the point of leaving.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 13,870

    Well I for one am glad that the Irish think it's a victory for them to have agreed that like the UK they won't put up a hard border.

    Because the UK has agreed in writing to regulatory alignment as a back stop.

    Regulatory alignment is really wide and vague. I'm not sure what it will mean in the end, I think it's been left that way on purpose.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 19,400
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Excellent morning for May and the country. A border deal reached and the European Commission has now recommended sufficient progress has been made to move to FTA talks and even Sir Keir Starmer on Sky news now says he is 'pleased' progress has been made and accepts the role for the ECJ on Citizens rights etc.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040

    Hard Brexiteers are furious of course, Aaron Banks has called the deal 'a betrayal of 17.5 million Leave voters' but May was always going to have to break with them eventually to make progress with the EU

    There are many strands of Brexiteers just as there were of leavers. Despite the fantasies of Banks, Farage and others they were never a cohesive, unified bloc. This one, for example, is quite content with what May has done. What she needs to do is find a consensus that a comfortable majority of both leavers and remainers can live with. This is a good first step.
    The FTA that ends free movement she is aiming for is that consensus
    Yep. And she seems more on target for that this morning than she has to date. It is a prize worth fighting and even paying for.
  • Overnight Theresa May appears to have gone from Mr Bean to Stalin.
  • Well I for one am glad that the Irish think it's a victory for them to have agreed that like the UK they won't put up a hard border.

    Because the UK has agreed in writing to regulatory alignment as a back stop.
    As a back stop which won't be needed, and only to the extent needed to avoid a hard border (which is very little).
    The bit I don't quite understand is 'in the event of no agreement, this is the agreement' Surely, if there's no agreement.....there's no agreement.....
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Excellent morning for May and the country. A border deal reached and the European Commission has now recommended sufficient progress has been made to move to FTA talks and even Sir Keir Starmer on Sky news now says he is 'pleased' progress has been made and accepts the role for the ECJ on Citizens rights etc.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040

    Hard Brexiteers are furious of course, Aaron Banks has called the deal 'a betrayal of 17.5 million Leave voters' but May was always going to have to break with them eventually to make progress with the EU

    There are many strands of Brexiteers just as there were of leavers. Despite the fantasies of Banks, Farage and others they were never a cohesive, unified bloc. This one, for example, is quite content with what May has done. What she needs to do is find a consensus that a comfortable majority of both leavers and remainers can live with. This is a good first step.
    The FTA that ends free movement she is aiming for is that consensus
    Yes, as I have said all along, from the start she's got the big picture right. The big development is that the EU is now playing ball, which is why I said yesterday that I was more optimistic than I'd been at any time since the referendum.
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