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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the first by-election of the 2017 Parliament be at Ashfo

SystemSystem Posts: 3,967
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the first by-election of the 2017 Parliament be at Ashford in Kent?

One of the problems about running a website dedicated to betting on politics is that we need things on which we can gamble where we’re going to get a result in the not too distant future.

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Comments

  • So we could have three by elections in Kent in 2018.
  • Who would have thought that both Sir Micky Fallon and Damian Green would go in sex scandals before Boris.
  • Who would have thought that both Sir Micky Fallon and Damian Green would go in sex scandals before Boris.

    Maybe Bonking Boris is always the perfect gentleman with the ladies?
  • FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mildly amused the EU repeatedly says nothing's agree until everything's agreed, and when Davis makes a similar comment suddenly people are wetting themselves.

    On-topic: interesting possibility. Would seem to be a two horse race.

    Mr. Eagles, if May's seat is the second, whose would be the third?
  • Who would have thought that both Sir Micky Fallon and Damian Green would go in sex scandals before Boris.

    Maybe Bonking Boris is always the perfect gentleman with the ladies?
    There's a joke to be made about his sexual performance and pulling out of leadership contests but then this is a family friendly website and I'm a good Muslim boy.
  • FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mildly amused the EU repeatedly says nothing's agree until everything's agreed, and when Davis makes a similar comment suddenly people are wetting themselves.

    On-topic: interesting possibility. Would seem to be a two horse race.

    Mr. Eagles, if May's seat is the second, whose would be the third?

    Eesh, I see your grasp of history is only matched by your grasp of geography.

    Maidenhead is in Berkshire.

    The other Kent seats that might see by-elections are Thanet South and Dover.
  • Mr. Eagles, ha, I stand corrected.

    My knowledge of geography so far south it's almost French is not very strong, I confess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 25,664
    edited December 2017
    Robots Will Transform Fast Food - That might not be a bad thing

    Panera’s Hurst told me that because of its new kiosks, and an app that allows online ordering, the chain is now processing more orders overall, which means it needs more total workers to fulfill customer demand. Starbucks patrons who use the chain’s app return more frequently than those who don’t, the company has said, and the greater efficiency that online ordering allows has boosted sales at busy stores during peak hours. Starbucks employed 8 percent more people in the U.S. in 2016 than it did in 2015, the year it launched the app.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/iron-chefs/546581/

    Raises hand slowly....sir I have an (obvious) question...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    Decent result for both Labour and the Tories here at the GE. Looks like the good voters of Ashford have decided it is probably the blue team but they haven't completely written off the red team !
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,614
    A seat the Lib Dems have held their deposit in the past 3 elections. Or 'A stronghold', as we call them.
  • Mr. Eagles, ha, I stand corrected.

    My knowledge of geography so far south it's almost French is not very strong, I confess.

    The only map we need.

    image
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    @bbclaurak: PM on her feet in Commons now....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873

    The only map we need.

    Did you see the first episode of The Grand Tour?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 779

    FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mildly amused the EU repeatedly says nothing's agree until everything's agreed, and when Davis makes a similar comment suddenly people are wetting themselves.

    On-topic: interesting possibility. Would seem to be a two horse race.

    Mr. Eagles, if May's seat is the second, whose would be the third?

    Eesh, I see your grasp of history is only matched by your grasp of geography.

    Maidenhead is in Berkshire.

    The other Kent seats that might see by-elections are Thanet South and Dover.
    Possibly Sevenoaks if there is more to the Michael Fallon resignation than meets the knee?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    @JGForsyth: Damian Green not in his usual seat for Theresa May's statement on the Brexit negotiations
  • So Green's goner, is he?

    Presumably it was the cover up rather than any offence.
  • Scott_P said:

    The only map we need.

    Did you see the first episode of The Grand Tour?
    I did.
  • So Green's goner, is he?

    Presumably it was the cover up rather than any offence.

    The alleged smearing might what gets him into trouble.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,143
    Having called Canterbury completely wrong before the general election I shall refrain from making any predictions.

    The only thing I will say is that there has been a truly massive amount of residential development around Ashford and the demographics in the constituency must be shifting. So past voting patterns won't necessarily be a good guide to what will happen next time.
  • The Tory Party's social media are doing their damnedest to force me out of the Tory party.

  • I struggle to see where the 15% Con-Lab swing required for a Labour gain here in Ashford would come from.

    I'd have thought their votes would be concentrated around the town of Ashford itself, whilst the Conservatives would be strong in the rural areas.

    But, I hope Green stays.
  • Mr. Eagles, ha, I stand corrected.

    My knowledge of geography so far south it's almost French is not very strong, I confess.

    The only map we need.

    image
    A map that includes Middlesbrough in Yorkshire - glad we've cleared that one up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 42,097
    edited December 2017

    The Tory Party's social media are doing their damnedest to force me out of the Tory party.

    (*) Needed on that poster I think ?

    Also when are Scots and English & Welsh law becoming intertwined ?
  • Mr. Eagles, what's so bad about that specific instance of social media?
  • So Green's goner, is he?

    Presumably it was the cover up rather than any offence.

    The alleged smearing might what gets him into trouble.
    As in smearing then licking it off again?
  • Pulpstar said:

    The Tory Party's social media are doing their damnedest to force me out of the Tory party.

    (*) Needed on that poster I think ?
    Well they've stopped using judgements and are using the correct judgments.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952

    FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mildly amused the EU repeatedly says nothing's agree until everything's agreed, and when Davis makes a similar comment suddenly people are wetting themselves.

    On-topic: interesting possibility. Would seem to be a two horse race.

    Mr. Eagles, if May's seat is the second, whose would be the third?

    Eesh, I see your grasp of history is only matched by your grasp of geography.

    Maidenhead is in Berkshire.

    The other Kent seats that might see by-elections are Thanet South and Dover.
    What’s happening re Charlie Elphicke?
  • One for https://twitter.com/igavels . Who I see have already picked up on it!
  • King Cole, a good question. Is he still in limbo?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Will there be an election for Franken's seat ?
  • FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mildly amused the EU repeatedly says nothing's agree until everything's agreed, and when Davis makes a similar comment suddenly people are wetting themselves.

    On-topic: interesting possibility. Would seem to be a two horse race.

    Mr. Eagles, if May's seat is the second, whose would be the third?

    Eesh, I see your grasp of history is only matched by your grasp of geography.

    Maidenhead is in Berkshire.

    The other Kent seats that might see by-elections are Thanet South and Dover.
    What’s happening re Charlie Elphicke?
    Mrs May has behaved disgracefully towards him, weeks after his suspension he's still not been told what he's been accused of.

    Funny how all those who accused Labour of acting shamefully towards Carl Sargeant have gone silent.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,143

    One for https://twitter.com/igavels . Who I see have already picked up on it!

    But do Scottish judges use gavels? Or Northern Irish ones?

    (I genuinely have no idea. Anybody know?)
  • One for https://twitter.com/igavels . Who I see have already picked up on it!

    But do Scottish judges use gavels? Or Northern Irish ones?

    (I genuinely have no idea. Anybody know?)
    Scotland has its own, different legal system, as to a lesser extent does Northern Ireland, so what's true in the procedures of English and Welsh courts isn't necessarily the case for their Scottish or Irish counterparts. But the Scottish Court Service have told us that no gavels are thumped north of the border either.

    https://fullfact.org/law/no-gavels-please-were-british/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    @MatthewOToole2: Subtle but interesting change in the PM statement vs text of agreement on purpose of full alignment. Text refers to preservation of "all-island economy". Instead she said "economic cooperation across the island". Not sure they are the same thing.
  • Mr. Eagles, what's so bad about that specific instance of social media?

    1) There's no such thing as British laws

    2) We don't use gavels in this country.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,939
    The tone on both sides of the House on Brexit suggests the whole thing is increasingly being played as an Ealing comedy.

    We just need somebody to break the fourth wall and ask, "Who wrote this rubbish?"
  • The tone on both sides of the House on Brexit suggests the whole thing is increasingly being played as an Ealing comedy.

    We just need somebody to break the fourth wall and ask, "Who wrote this rubbish?"

    Boris Johnson or David Davis as Brian Rix?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 2,352
    New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

    Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    *unt as DPM. Who would have believed that ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952

    The tone on both sides of the House on Brexit suggests the whole thing is increasingly being played as an Ealing comedy.

    We just need somebody to break the fourth wall and ask, "Who wrote this rubbish?"

    Boris Johnson or David Davis as Brian Rix?
    Boris is probably more often without trousers in ‘unusual’ situations. Allegedly!
  • The tone on both sides of the House on Brexit suggests the whole thing is increasingly being played as an Ealing comedy.

    We just need somebody to break the fourth wall and ask, "Who wrote this rubbish?"

    Boris Johnson or David Davis as Brian Rix?
    Hasn't Boris already performed in "When Did You Last See Your Trousers?"?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 9,952
    Barnesian said:

    New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

    Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.


    Could spoil Trump’s Christmas. Oh dear!!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,143

    Barnesian said:

    New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

    Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.


    Could spoil Trump’s Christmas. Oh dear!!
    Could make mine, on the other hand. I'd about written off my Jones bet as a value loser.
  • With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who
  • Mr. Barnesian, hmm, put a small sum on. Slightly regretting not backing earlier at better odds, but there we are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    So looks like someone is about to open the Damian Green box.

    If it turns out there was a deception it really would be the most extraordinary behaviour.
  • With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    #Esther4HealthSec
  • With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    #Esther4HealthSec
    That would make my Christmas
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244

    With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
    Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 61,059
    edited December 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
    Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.
    PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

    Such brilliant insight and for free.
  • Mr. rkrkrk, that's still good value.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Barnesian said:

    New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

    Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.

    If this does not come about my faith in democracy will tumble. What's the point if child molesters get elected after it has been widely discussed ? And most of his ardent supporters are serious churchgoers.
  • Just shows how clever the deal is that all sides of the conservative party glowing in unity
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,629
    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

    Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.

    If this does not come about my faith in democracy will tumble. What's the point if child molesters get elected after it has been widely discussed ? And most of his ardent supporters are serious churchgoers.
    I can imagine his supporters demanding the banning of Lolitas from shopping malls.
  • So Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry have praised Theresa May in The Commons.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    @JGForsyth: Anna Soubry praising Theresa May's plan and attacking Labour's position is bound to make Tory Brexiteers nervous
  • Mr. NorthWales, for now.

    The Pompeians were full of beans before Pharsalus.

  • So Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry have praised Theresa May in The Commons.

    And IDS
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    edited December 2017

    rkrkrk said:

    With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
    Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.
    PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

    Such brilliant insight and for free.
    Indeed - we need more articles from that thread writer and rather fewer from whoever it was who tipped Michael Fallon.

    But yes - if Hunt comes good, I will certainly make a donation!
  • UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

    The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

    The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

    According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

    The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

    It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,
  • rkrkrk said:

    With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
    Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.
    PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

    Such brilliant insight and for free.
    New health sec: Justine Greening? (if one is required).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926

    One for https://twitter.com/igavels . Who I see have already picked up on it!

    But do Scottish judges use gavels? Or Northern Irish ones?

    (I genuinely have no idea. Anybody know?)
    Scottish ones don't. Who knows what they get up to in Northern Ireland?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 17,926
    How exactly do you live in a small company?
  • Mr. L, I hope you're not questioning the economic excellence of Finance Commissar Comrade McDonnell.
  • The Tory Party's social media are doing their damnedest to force me out of the Tory party.

    Isn't the gavel used by American judges, not British ones? Clearly a subliminal slip by those anti-European maniacs who want us to become the 51st state.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

    The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

    The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

    According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

    The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

    It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

    I read an article somewhere in the last week or so where it said banks were moving away from lending to SME's because it required them to hold more capital relatively speaking than for mortgage lending . I think this is about that.
  • DavidL said:

    How exactly do you live in a small company?
    Well if you run a rather successful company you can earn profits to pay yourself a salary/dividends that you don't need a mortgage, you can buy your own house outright.
  • DavidL said:

    How exactly do you live in a small company?
    Perhaps the curbs will be foussed on Buy-to-Let mortgages?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244

    UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

    The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

    The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

    According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

    The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

    It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

    It's an interesting proposal - brave too I think.

    When I went to a launch of Turner's book on debt & devil, Richard Murphy was there too and was largely in agreement on the analysis in the book, although quibbled over the necessity for/reality of Central Bank Independence.

    This looks to be another area where Labour party policy has been influenced by that book/that strand of post-crisis economic thinking.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/17/adair-turner-make-home-loans-less-available-larry-elliott
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 11,628
    Just listening to Tezza on rewind.

    "Fallback option of last resort."

    Not so catchy, is it. Pretty darned important, that said!

    No wonder Soubry is praising Tezza.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,027

    Barnesian said:

    New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

    Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.


    Could spoil Trump’s Christmas. Oh dear!!
    I pulled out of the market to leave me with a free bet on Jones. Obviously I'll be happy if that comes in but I would be rather wistful of winnings not won.
  • rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
    Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.
    PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

    Such brilliant insight and for free.
    Indeed - we need more articles from that thread writer and rather fewer from whoever it was who tipped Michael Fallon.

    But yes - if Hunt comes good, I will certainly make a donation!
    That guy's a tool, he tipped Roy Moore to win at 4/6
  • TOPPING said:

    Just listening to Tezza on rewind.

    "Fallback option of last resort."

    Not so catchy, is it. Pretty darned important, that said!

    No wonder Soubry is praising Tezza.

    Is that the title of her autobiography?
  • surbiton said:

    UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

    The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

    The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

    According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

    The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

    It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

    I read an article somewhere in the last week or so where it said banks were moving away from lending to SME's because it required them to hold more capital relatively speaking than for mortgage lending . I think this is about that.
    Not to mention this little thing called 'limited liability'.
  • Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Anna Soubry praising Theresa May's plan and attacking Labour's position is bound to make Tory Brexiteers nervous

    Rightly so. They'll soon have to explain why Brexit is nothing more than EU membership without the voting rights. The Tory party will be dead as a euro-sceptic force and Farage will feast on the carcass.
  • surbiton said:

    UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

    The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

    The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

    According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

    The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

    It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

    I read an article somewhere in the last week or so where it said banks were moving away from lending to SME's because it required them to hold more capital relatively speaking than for mortgage lending . I think this is about that.
    Basel III risk weighting. Which is more likely to default and significantly less enthusiastic about providing credit support?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 3,244
    DavidL said:

    How exactly do you live in a small company?
    Loose credit can inflate prices and lead to bubbles.
    Less credit could mean lower prices.
  • Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Anna Soubry praising Theresa May's plan and attacking Labour's position is bound to make Tory Brexiteers nervous

    Rightly so. They'll soon have to explain why Brexit is nothing more than EU membership without the voting rights. The Tory party will be dead as a euro-sceptic force and Farage will feast on the carcass.
    UKIPs gone and it aint coming back.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 15,939
    May refuses to rule out that 'full alignment' means keeping the common external tariff.
  • Praetorian Guards had a history of killing their leaders, just saying.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948

    rkrkrk said:

    With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

    Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
    Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.
    PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

    Such brilliant insight and for free.
    Yep - you, Nostradamus... and Diane Abbott.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 3,948
    DavidL said:

    How exactly do you live in a small company?

    Those of us who work for a living often have to sleep under our desks...
  • DavidL said:

    How exactly do you live in a small company?
    Many small companies once had a flat above the business to live in.
  • If Labour want to make it harder to get a mortgage at a time when people are struggling to get on the housing ladder then they can wave goodbye to any prospect of getting power.
    .
  • stevefstevef Posts: 622
    The problem with a political betting site is that it leads to overspeculation based on how things look at a particular moment in time rather than cool analysis, and the greatest gains are to be made by predicting the most unlikely thing to happen.

    Theresa May was never going to resign on the day after the general election. No prime minister in 400 years has ever resigned after being returned to power after a general election, and the Tories would rightly have been accused of undemocratically ditching the leader that had been chosen by the electorate as its preferred prime minister, and replacing her with one with no democratic mandate.

    Damien Green might have to resign, but he is unlikely to stand down as an MP. Labour did not come a good second in 2017, it was 30 points behind the Tories in 2017. Canterbury was won because of the university students who lived there.

    With regard to by elections in general, governments usually do lose them mid term. Neil Kinnock won sensational victories. in the 80s, early 90s, and was ahead in the polls for 8 out of 9 years -except at general election time. He was ahead by far more than Corbyn.

    Green is unlikely to stand down as an MP, but the Tories need to lose 7 by elections to be in danger of brought down, and in 6 months there have been none. On that average it would take nearly 4 years for the Tories to be in danger.

    The next election will almost certainly be in 2022. The Tories will have another leader, a better manifesto and line of attack against Labour, and those older people who did not turn out in 2017, will turn out in droves now they know that Corbyn is a threat.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

    The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

    The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

    According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

    The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

    It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

    I read an article somewhere in the last week or so where it said banks were moving away from lending to SME's because it required them to hold more capital relatively speaking than for mortgage lending . I think this is about that.
    Not to mention this little thing called 'limited liability'.
    They could charge loans to fixed and floating assets.
  • stevef said:

    The next election will almost certainly be in 2022. The Tories will have another leader, a better manifesto and line of attack against Labour, and those older people who did not turn out in 2017, will turn out in droves now they know that Corbyn is a threat.

    Only part of your analysis I disagree with is that there's every chance Corbyn will be gone by 2022.
  • Theresa's not a very good actress. That was obviously a look of feigned exasperation. Ed had her pawned.
  • Mr. Thompson, how do you see Corbyn going?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,143
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

    The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

    The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

    According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

    The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

    It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

    I read an article somewhere in the last week or so where it said banks were moving away from lending to SME's because it required them to hold more capital relatively speaking than for mortgage lending . I think this is about that.
    Not to mention this little thing called 'limited liability'.
    They could charge loans to fixed and floating assets.
    Or just take a personal guarantee from the directors and secure it on their houses.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 622

    stevef said:

    The next election will almost certainly be in 2022. The Tories will have another leader, a better manifesto and line of attack against Labour, and those older people who did not turn out in 2017, will turn out in droves now they know that Corbyn is a threat.

    Only part of your analysis I disagree with is that there's every chance Corbyn will be gone by 2022.
    I hope Corbyn is gone. I would happily vote for someone like Emily Thornberry, or any non Corbynista leader. Corbyn is so vain however, laps up all the Stalinist adoration, I cant see him standing down.
  • I think it’s unlikely that Corbyn will go before 2022. But if it did happen, it’s very unlikely that anyone on the right of the Labour Party would take his place.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 7,510

    If Labour want to make it harder to get a mortgage at a time when people are struggling to get on the housing ladder then they can wave goodbye to any prospect of getting power.
    .

    Surely the true Corbynistas don't want to get on the housing ladder?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 33,873
    @jonwalker121: Theresa May declines to confirm, when asked by Peter Bone, that the 29 March 2019 Brexit date will be added to the EU Withdrawal Bill
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