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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bookies holding back payment to Alabama punters because the re

SystemSystem Posts: 5,841
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bookies holding back payment to Alabama punters because the result was tight and there could be a recount

Roy Moore refuses to concede, says "we also know that God is in control" https://t.co/1sJSZehJKH https://t.co/IXqp0xvnhB

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,342
    edited December 2017
    Pleased to have sat this one out, could be weeks before we get an official result. Bookies are right to hold on for the formal announcement - however annoying it might be, it’s better than them having to pay out both sides!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    Close? Wasn't there a couple of points in it?
  • I see failing Facebook are trying to cover their arses today.

    Can’t understand why anyone would believe Fake News Facebook.

    Sad.
  • It could be worse. It could end up in the Supreme Court.

    Bush v Gore was bad for punters
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 1,902
    It is remarkable how a country as rich and powerful as the United States with such a long democratic tradition is so incompetent at organising elections.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 870
    Rick Sanatorium?!
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Very informative thread. I had no idea God was registered to vote in Alabama.
  • tpfkar said:

    Rick Sanatorium?!

    Do you not remember the Santorum surge?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,342
    One for Mr Eagles.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/12/egyptian-singer-shyma-sent-prison-two-years-explicit-music-video/
    An Egyptian pop singer has been sentenced to two years in prison for "inciting debauchery" after a music video showing her suggestively eating a banana was ruled to be too sexually explicit.
  • Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.
  • Sandpit said:

    One for Mr Eagles.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/12/egyptian-singer-shyma-sent-prison-two-years-explicit-music-video/
    An Egyptian pop singer has been sentenced to two years in prison for "inciting debauchery" after a music video showing her suggestively eating a banana was ruled to be too sexually explicit.

    There’s nothing worse when you make eye contact with a woman eating a banana.
  • Mr. Eagles, I imagine Crassus would suggest a Parthian beverage was worse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    RoyalBlue said:

    It is remarkable how a country as rich and powerful as the United States with such a long democratic tradition is so incompetent at organising elections.

    Remember how long it took California to count their votes? I think it took weeks...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 17,416

    tpfkar said:

    Rick Sanatorium?!

    Do you not remember the Santorum surge?
    Been trying to forget....
  • Mr. Eagles, I imagine Crassus would suggest a Parthian beverage was worse.

    A Parthian beverage won’t lead to a multi-million sexual harassment case.
  • Off topic.

    I really regret subscribing to a sadomasochistic text chat service.

    I replied STOP, so they sent even more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,342

    tpfkar said:

    Rick Sanatorium?!

    Do you not remember the Santorum surge?
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/blogs/ticket/spreading-santorum-protest-page-dropped-first-page-google-190115107.html
    Google eventually dropped it. Thank Christ.
  • Mr. Eagles, well, no. But mostly because the recipient will die from having molten gold poured down their throat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Sandpit said:

    tpfkar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Hmm....PM rebuffs call by @Anna_Soubry to accept “meaningful vote” amendment. Sounds like Govt going to try and tough this one out #PMQs

    Probably a mistake, but they've prepared the way for a loss, or someone has, with months of build up to it.
    Of all the amendments in play, I can't get my head around why the Government are going to the wall on this one. So what if there's a meaningful vote before they sign? If there's no parliamentary majority for it it's toast anyway.

    Perhaps scared of what happens if parliament votes it down? I think that's the point.
    Have any of the proponents of this amendment managed to articulate what exactly it sets out to achieve?
    To ensure a sovereign Parliament gets a meaningful vote.
    I hope you sing the same tune if the amendment is defeated, as it will be our sovereign parliament saying no need for another vote.

    Personally I'd accept the amendment. They won't get credit for it, but it saves a defeat and at worst the intent is mischievous, and at best as noble as you've suggested. Same reason I was glad of the outcome of the A50 case.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,020
    The probability of a 1.5% margin being overturned is almost infintesimally small.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
  • Omarosa Manigault Newman, one of Donald Trump’s most prominent African American supporters, plans to leave the administration next month, the White House has said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/13/former-apprentice-contestant-resigns-from-trump-administration

    At this rate, it will be just Trump and Sarah Huckabee Sanders left by 2021.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Very informative thread. I had no idea God was registered to vote in Alabama.

    I always thought him a guiding hand, not so direct.

    Of course, proponents of divine providence usually point to their success as proof of God's favour, not their defeats. As I recall Charles I refusing to accept gods will that he had lost angered many, if we take people's words at face value.
  • Mr. kle4, reminds me of when people who survive a plane crash or suchlike 'thank God'. I always wonder they don't blame him for the crash and for the killed. It just seems odd to me.
  • Off topic.

    I really regret subscribing to a sadomasochistic text chat service.

    I replied STOP, so they sent even more.

    Try LOUISE
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,850
    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 29,606
    edited December 2017

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    I recall India had a huge problem of people facing very serious criminal charges being in office, up to murder, but a alleged mass murderer? That's big. Not unique, remarkably.

    What's Duterte up to these days?
  • The problem with Moore's excuse for failing to concede and holding out for a recount is that the margin is pretty big i.e. 1.5% or 21,000 votes, or three times the official recount margin. The fact that results have been overturned where the margin was wafer thin doesn't wash as a justification in this case.

    What this is instead about is the Republicans trying to delay Jones taking his seat as long as possible, for the sake of skewing the arithmetic in the Senate for another couple of months.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
  • Mr. Phil, I read that a recount could still happen, but Moore would have to pay for it.
  • Off topic.

    I really regret subscribing to a sadomasochistic text chat service.

    I replied STOP, so they sent even more.

    Try LOUISE
    Chapeau
  • The problem with Moore's excuse for failing to concede and holding out for a recount is that the margin is pretty big i.e. 1.5% or 21,000 votes, or three times the official recount margin. The fact that results have been overturned where the margin was wafer thin doesn't wash as a justification in this case.

    What this is instead about is the Republicans trying to delay Jones taking his seat as long as possible, for the sake of skewing the arithmetic in the Senate for another couple of months.

    Jones couldn’t take his seat until the start of January anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
  • I'm continually confused about this man Moore versus the 80s Radio 2 DJ and his all time best song.........


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,020
    edited December 2017

    Mr. Phil, I read that a recount could still happen, but Moore would have to pay for it.

    I wonder how many contributors to the 2016 recount effort were pure observers of democracy, and so wish to contribute to Moore's recount fund?

    https://www.jill2016.com/recount
  • kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines

    According to the magnificent Liam Fox, we share those values!

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
    I am sure that some of the IRA Hunger Strikers stood for election from their cells - but it was a long time ago and I may be misremembering
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
    I am sure that some of the IRA Hunger Strikers stood for election from their cells - but it was a long time ago and I may be misremembering
    Just did the research - and indeed Bobby Sands did get elected from Prison (he died shortly thereafter)

    It was his case that caused the 1981 Representation of the People Act to be passed banning those from serving jail terms from being candidates
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 43,020
    edited December 2017

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
    By-election April 1981: Fermanagh and South Tyrone Party
    Anti H-Block Bobby Sands 30,493 51.2
    UUP Harry West 29,046 48.8 +20.8
    Majority 1,447 2.4
    Turnout 59,538 86.9 −0.2
    Anti H-Block gain from Independent Republican
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 10,725
    edited December 2017

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
    I am sure that some of the IRA Hunger Strikers stood for election from their cells - but it was a long time ago and I may be misremembering
    Just did the research - and indeed Bobby Sands did get elected from Prison (he died shortly thereafter)

    It was his case that caused the 1981 Representation of the People Act to be passed banning those from serving jail terms from being candidates
    You are quite right; recall the case now. Seem to recall though that other Republicans have served jail terms and stood for, and been elected to Parliament later.
  • Alan Mullally: 'Chucking a beer over James Anderson’s head? I once put a dead shark in Mike Atherton’s bed'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
    By-election April 1981: Fermanagh and South Tyrone Party
    Anti H-Block Bobby Sands 30,493 51.2
    UUP Harry West 29,046 48.8 +20.8
    Majority 1,447 2.4
    Turnout 59,538 86.9 −0.2
    Anti H-Block gain from Independent Republican
    Hence the 1981 Representation of the People Act.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
    I am sure that some of the IRA Hunger Strikers stood for election from their cells - but it was a long time ago and I may be misremembering
    Just did the research - and indeed Bobby Sands did get elected from Prison (he died shortly thereafter)

    It was his case that caused the 1981 Representation of the People Act to be passed banning those from serving jail terms from being candidates
    You are quite right; recall the case now. Seem to recall though that other Republicans have served jail terms and stood for, and been elected to Parliament later.
    There is nothing to stop someone who has served a sentence from standing - but you cannot stand whilst serving (at least that is my understanding)

    Of course, if you are convicted whilst sitting and sent down then other rules apply!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,189
    edited December 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Pleased to have sat this one out, could be weeks before we get an official result. Bookies are right to hold on for the formal announcement - however annoying it might be, it’s better than them having to pay out both sides!

    WE already knew we would be waiting till January for the 'official' result.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,286
    edited December 2017
    I'm still don't understand the point behind the amendment.

    If it passes there are two options.

    One is that we crash out without a deal, as whatever the deal, the die-hard remain MPs will never agree with it.

    Surely no one wants that?

    Unless we go back to the EU and say "We can't get it through Parliament, so can we modify it as Parliament wants, which according to underpants man, will be no FOM, overseeing by the EU courts and full payments to you for membership of the common market and customs union." In other words ...Remain.

    Ah, I see it now. The Labour party can blame the rebel Tories for reneging on the referendum result, or else muddy the waters a lot. Not very cunning but very transparent.

    There will be no second option.
  • F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,269
    edited December 2017
    Tusk declares EU policy on immigration a failure

    usual suspects are outraged at attack on TMerkel

    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article171560580/Tusk-loest-Eklat-um-Fluechtlingspolitik-in-der-EU-aus.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 12,762
    edited December 2017
    Is it gerrymandered or is it just that DNC voters are concentrated? Those don't look like exceptionally bizarre boundaries.

    Indeed only 1 and 6 could potentially have had more blue voters from 7. 5 and 3 would stay red either way.
  • Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,222
    CD13 said:

    I'm still don't understand the point behind the amendment.

    If it passes there are two options.

    One is that we crash out without a deal, as whatever the deal, the die-hard remain MPs will never agree with it.

    Surely no one wants that?

    Unless we go back to the EU and say "We can't get it through Parliament, so can we modify it as Parliament wants, which according to underpants man, will be no FOM, overseeing by the EU courts and full payments to you for membership of the common market and customs union." In other words ...Remain.

    Ah, I see it now. The Labour party can blame the rebel Tories for reneging on the referendum result, or else muddy the waters a lot. Not very cunning but very transparent.

    There will be no second option.

    If it passes there are two options:

    A minority government will not be able to determine the form of Brexit without winning the agreement of MPs. It seems pretty clear that MPs won’t vote to overturn the referendum result but beyond that all possible forms (that were argued for by various Leavers) including EEA membership, customs union membership, CETA or WTO are legitimate endpoints.

    A majority government that can whip its MPs successfully will be able to determine those terms.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463

    Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.

    Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,819
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Should also be remembered that Roy Moore was twice removed as Chief Justice of Alabama for not following the law/instructions of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    He’s the epitome of a sore loser.

    Incredible people are still eligible after having been so removed. I assume an issue with voting them in.
    Amateurs

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/783379/jail-no-barrier-to-political-career-in-philippines
    Would they be permanently barred in the UK?
    I believe you are only barred if you are currently in prison.
    I can’t think of a recent example of someone who has been to prison standing, but there must be one.
    By-election April 1981: Fermanagh and South Tyrone Party
    Anti H-Block Bobby Sands 30,493 51.2
    UUP Harry West 29,046 48.8 +20.8
    Majority 1,447 2.4
    Turnout 59,538 86.9 −0.2
    Anti H-Block gain from Independent Republican
    Hence the 1981 Representation of the People Act.
    I didn't know that one had been that close.

    A victory obtained by traditional voting practices?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 4,286
    edited December 2017
    Mr Polruan,

    The Remainers have a majority in Parliament. They will use it to water down the UK Leave demands as much as possible and the EU will obviously be happy with the result.

    A legitimate question. What then was the point of the referendum if the voters can be ignored?

  • TonyETonyE Posts: 937

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
  • MattWMattW Posts: 1,819
    edited December 2017
    .
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463
    CD13 said:

    Mr Polruan,

    The Remainers have a majority in Parliament. They will use it to water down the UK Leave demands as much as possible and the EU will obviously be happy with the result.

    A legitimate question. What then was the point of the referendum if the voters can be ignored?

    52% of the voters might have to accept a deal that has been decided by parliament. But as those 52% didn't know what they were voting for, I can't see how you can say that they are being ignored.
  • Is it gerrymandered or is it just that DNC voters are concentrated? Those don't look like exceptionally bizarre boundaries.

    Indeed only 1 and 6 could potentially have had more blue voters from 7. 5 and 3 would stay red either way.
    Be interesting to see their comparative populations (and what those "tails" on 7 are!)
  • Is it gerrymandered or is it just that DNC voters are concentrated? Those don't look like exceptionally bizarre boundaries.

    Indeed only 1 and 6 could potentially have had more blue voters from 7. 5 and 3 would stay red either way.
    It isn't that gerrymandered - and in more normal circumstances it guarantees the Democrats a House seat when more normal-looking boundaries could give a sweep. The Voting Rights Act 1965 mandates a majority-minority district (#7) so that partially explains the weird shape, reaching into the suburbs of both Birmingham & Montgomery. A more UK-style approach would be to start with seats based on the four large cities (all 180-220k or so).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 19,294
    TonyE said:

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
    I think someone (Mr Sandpit?) mentioned there might be a problem with young drivers such as Sirotkin: Williams' main sponsor is Martini, and they require older drivers who can publicise their drinks in all relevant countries. Stroll is 18, and Sirotkin is 22.

    I daresay Williams can straighten that out, though.
  • Mr. E, decision isn't made yet, but that would help.

    Mr. Topping, I referred specifically to migration. Or do you think Merkel throwing open the borders of her country to let in anyone who turned up was a wise decision?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,222
    CD13 said:

    Mr Polruan,

    The Remainers have a majority in Parliament. They will use it to water down the UK Leave demands as much as possible and the EU will obviously be happy with the result.

    A legitimate question. What then was the point of the referendum if the voters can be ignored?

    The referendum question was binary - as long as we cease to be members of the EU, the voters have not been ignored.

    I would have thought that anyone who believes that the majority in the referendum actually voted for something different to what was stated on the paper should be pushing for a second referendum to seek clarification unless they are happy for the voters’ representatives in Parliament to do the job.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,365
    edited December 2017
    TonyE said:

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
    While Die Hard is definitely a Christmas movie....F1 is definitely not a real sport...throws hand grenade and legs it.
  • What have UKIP got to hide?

    Ukip to face tribunal over use of data in EU referendum campaign

    Information commissioner announces inquiry into parties’ use of personal information after Ukip’s refusal to cooperate

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/13/ukip-to-face-tribunal-over-use-of-data-in-eu-referendum-campaign?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463

    Mr. E, decision isn't made yet, but that would help.

    Mr. Topping, I referred specifically to migration. Or do you think Merkel throwing open the borders of her country to let in anyone who turned up was a wise decision?

    It was a decision taken for perfectly rational reasons. So yes I do think it wise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 41,804
    edited December 2017
    Mr. Urquhart, I find your lack of judgement disturbing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Topping, I fear the near future will prove your assessment to be severely wrong.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,228

    TonyE said:

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
    I think someone (Mr Sandpit?) mentioned there might be a problem with young drivers such as Sirotkin: Williams' main sponsor is Martini, and they require older drivers who can publicise their drinks in all relevant countries. Stroll is 18, and Sirotkin is 22.

    I daresay Williams can straighten that out, though.
    Very, very fast driving and 15% ABV alcoholic drinks just go together like a horse and carriage, don't they? One doesn't have to be a prissy nanny-statist to find it a bit odd.
  • Polruan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Polruan,

    The Remainers have a majority in Parliament. They will use it to water down the UK Leave demands as much as possible and the EU will obviously be happy with the result.

    A legitimate question. What then was the point of the referendum if the voters can be ignored?

    The referendum question was binary - as long as we cease to be members of the EU, the voters have not been ignored.

    I would have thought that anyone who believes that the majority in the referendum actually voted for something different to what was stated on the paper should be pushing for a second referendum to seek clarification unless they are happy for the voters’ representatives in Parliament to do the job.
    True, plus maybe a 52 to 48 split requires a compromise so as not to ignore about half the voters.
  • Is it gerrymandered or is it just that DNC voters are concentrated? Those don't look like exceptionally bizarre boundaries.

    Indeed only 1 and 6 could potentially have had more blue voters from 7. 5 and 3 would stay red either way.
    District 7 is a majority-minority district as set out by the Voting Rights act 1965. It was deliberately created to ensure at least one majority-minority seat in Alabama by taking the mainly African American bits of Birmingham and Montgomery. It permanently ensures one Democrat seat but at a cost of making the other 6 seats Republican
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,186
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TonyE said:

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
    I think someone (Mr Sandpit?) mentioned there might be a problem with young drivers such as Sirotkin: Williams' main sponsor is Martini, and they require older drivers who can publicise their drinks in all relevant countries. Stroll is 18, and Sirotkin is 22.

    I daresay Williams can straighten that out, though.
    Very, very fast driving and 15% ABV alcoholic drinks just go together like a horse and carriage, don't they? One doesn't have to be a prissy nanny-statist to find it a bit odd.
    Not to mention all that bubbly that gets sprayed around after the race (Do they still do that? I haven't watched F1 in years)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 27,365
    edited December 2017

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TonyE said:

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
    I think someone (Mr Sandpit?) mentioned there might be a problem with young drivers such as Sirotkin: Williams' main sponsor is Martini, and they require older drivers who can publicise their drinks in all relevant countries. Stroll is 18, and Sirotkin is 22.

    I daresay Williams can straighten that out, though.
    Very, very fast driving and 15% ABV alcoholic drinks just go together like a horse and carriage, don't they? One doesn't have to be a prissy nanny-statist to find it a bit odd.
    Not to mention all that bubbly that gets sprayed around after the race (Do they still do that? I haven't watched F1 in years)
    They certainly do...A corbynista has the contract for it....
  • Mr. Rex, yes, although some alternative or other is used at races like Abu Dhabi.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900
    edited December 2017
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.

    Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.
    That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.

    Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.

    So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.

    Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.

    For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.

    European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.

    It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463

    Mr. Urquhart, I find your lack of judgement disturbing.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Topping, I fear the near future will prove your assessment to be severely wrong.

    What do you foresee in the near future?
  • Polruan said:

    CD13 said:

    I'm still don't understand the point behind the amendment.

    If it passes there are two options.

    One is that we crash out without a deal, as whatever the deal, the die-hard remain MPs will never agree with it.

    Surely no one wants that?

    Unless we go back to the EU and say "We can't get it through Parliament, so can we modify it as Parliament wants, which according to underpants man, will be no FOM, overseeing by the EU courts and full payments to you for membership of the common market and customs union." In other words ...Remain.

    Ah, I see it now. The Labour party can blame the rebel Tories for reneging on the referendum result, or else muddy the waters a lot. Not very cunning but very transparent.

    There will be no second option.

    If it passes there are two options:

    A minority government will not be able to determine the form of Brexit without winning the agreement of MPs. It seems pretty clear that MPs won’t vote to overturn the referendum result but beyond that all possible forms (that were argued for by various Leavers) including EEA membership, customs union membership, CETA or WTO are legitimate endpoints.

    A majority government that can whip its MPs successfully will be able to determine those terms.
    The problem being that it is not in the hands of the MPs to make those decisions, for all we wish it were. If the Government has negotiated a settlement and the MPs vote it down then the only realistic option on the table is a WTO relationship and no Brexit deal. Because I don't think there is a cat in hells chance that the EU are going to turn around and agree to renegotiate for something else with only a couple of months left before the deadline.

    I want MPs to vote on the final deal. But the idea that, realistically, the choice will be anything but 'The Deal' or 'No Deal' is pretty fanciful.
  • TonyE said:

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
    While Die Hard is definitely a Christmas movie....F1 is definitely not a real sport...throws hand grenade and legs it.
    Not only is it a Christmas Movie but, according to Empire Magazine, it is the top Christmas Movie of all time.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,189

    Is it gerrymandered or is it just that DNC voters are concentrated? Those don't look like exceptionally bizarre boundaries.

    Indeed only 1 and 6 could potentially have had more blue voters from 7. 5 and 3 would stay red either way.
    7 is exceptionally gerrymandered. Those twiddly bits at the edges are taking chunks out of other districts which would make them competitive to make a super safe D seat
  • Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).

    Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?
  • Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).

    Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?

    I am sure some will try. I have no idea how successful they would be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,769
    kyf_100 said:

    European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.

    It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.

    Alternatively you could argue that in 2017 Merkel was humbled at the ballot box, whereas in the UK, equivalently dominant leaders like Thatcher or Blair never were.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463

    Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).

    Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?

    How does the number of terrorist incidents in Germany vs here stack up?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 31,810
    Alistair said:

    Is it gerrymandered or is it just that DNC voters are concentrated? Those don't look like exceptionally bizarre boundaries.

    Indeed only 1 and 6 could potentially have had more blue voters from 7. 5 and 3 would stay red either way.
    7 is exceptionally gerrymandered. Those twiddly bits at the edges are taking chunks out of other districts which would make them competitive to make a super safe D seat
    If you took a more representative election, those bits might be the only thing keeping the seat in the D column.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 1,222

    Polruan said:

    CD13 said:

    I'm still don't understand the point behind the amendment.

    If it passes there are two options.

    One is that we crash out without a deal, as whatever the deal, the die-hard remain MPs will never agree with it.

    Surely no one wants that?

    Unless we go back to the EU and say "We can't get it through Parliament, so can we modify it as Parliament wants, which according to underpants man, will be no FOM, overseeing by the EU courts and full payments to you for membership of the common market and customs union." In other words ...Remain.

    Ah, I see it now. The Labour party can blame the rebel Tories for reneging on the referendum result, or else muddy the waters a lot. Not very cunning but very transparent.

    There will be no second option.

    If it passes there are two options:

    A minority government will not be able to determine the form of Brexit without winning the agreement of MPs. It seems pretty clear that MPs won’t vote to overturn the referendum result but beyond that all possible forms (that were argued for by various Leavers) including EEA membership, customs union membership, CETA or WTO are legitimate endpoints.

    A majority government that can whip its MPs successfully will be able to determine those terms.
    The problem being that it is not in the hands of the MPs to make those decisions, for all we wish it were. If the Government has negotiated a settlement and the MPs vote it down then the only realistic option on the table is a WTO relationship and no Brexit deal. Because I don't think there is a cat in hells chance that the EU are going to turn around and agree to renegotiate for something else with only a couple of months left before the deadline.

    I want MPs to vote on the final deal. But the idea that, realistically, the choice will be anything but 'The Deal' or 'No Deal' is pretty fanciful.
    The choice will also include “extend and fudge” and “don’t leave”. The reason that the government aren’t prepared to give ground here is that when the deal can’t live up to the mutually incompatible promises they’ve made, it has to be forced through and ancient history before the next GE. If they’re still negotiating and not making progress at that point they’re toast. So “extend and fudge” must be opposed even if it’s in the national interest.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 3,542
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).

    Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?

    How does the number of terrorist incidents in Germany vs here stack up?
    It is not just the number of terrorist incidents that is important - it is other incidents and the reaction of the authorities to them. That is where the real problems lie.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463
    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.

    Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.
    That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.

    Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.

    So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.

    Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.

    For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.

    European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.

    It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
    Does all that make Merkel a moron?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,228
    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).

    Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?

    How does the number of terrorist incidents in Germany vs here stack up?
    How many crowds were chanting "Death to the Jews" in London last w/e?
  • I just cashed out on Betfair. A bird in the hand... not that there are many political bets with a result in the near future in which to invest my modest winnings. Is there a market on whether Mrs May will win the vote this evening?
  • Mr. Topping, not sure, and that's only one part of what I think the problems will be.

    Anyway, I've got to go now.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 955

    Is it gerrymandered or is it just that DNC voters are concentrated? Those don't look like exceptionally bizarre boundaries.

    Indeed only 1 and 6 could potentially have had more blue voters from 7. 5 and 3 would stay red either way.
    Be interesting to see their comparative populations (and what those "tails" on 7 are!)
    Here you are https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alabama's_congressional_districts
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,639
    He's an idiot with little self awareness.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 900
    TOPPING said:

    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.

    Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.
    That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.

    Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.

    So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.

    Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.

    For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.

    European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.

    It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
    Does all that make Merkel a moron?
    It makes her an autocrat who was able to impose mass immigration not just on her own country, but the rest of the Schengen zone. Now the EU is demanding countries that won't take in "their fair share" of immigrants pay €250,000 per immigrant.

    It is the clearest example of the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU I can think of - that one country's leader can unilaterally impose a policy that has such a profound, dramatic and destabilising effect on every other country, without the citizens of that country having recourse to reject that leader at the ballot box.

    And that is what makes her a moron.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 12,463
    edited December 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).

    Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?

    How does the number of terrorist incidents in Germany vs here stack up?
    How many crowds were chanting "Death to the Jews" in London last w/e?
    That you or I know about? No idea.

    You think the UK is without its extreme Jihadist element?
  • Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    CD13 said:

    I'm still don't understand the point behind the amendment.

    If it passes there are two options.

    One is that we crash out without a deal, as whatever the deal, the die-hard remain MPs will never agree with it.

    Surely no one wants that?

    Unless we go back to the EU and say "We can't get it through Parliament, so can we modify it as Parliament wants, which according to underpants man, will be no FOM, overseeing by the EU courts and full payments to you for membership of the common market and customs union." In other words ...Remain.

    Ah, I see it now. The Labour party can blame the rebel Tories for reneging on the referendum result, or else muddy the waters a lot. Not very cunning but very transparent.

    There will be no second option.

    If it passes there are two options:

    A minority government will not be able to determine the form of Brexit without winning the agreement of MPs. It seems pretty clear that MPs won’t vote to overturn the referendum result but beyond that all possible forms (that were argued for by various Leavers) including EEA membership, customs union membership, CETA or WTO are legitimate endpoints.

    A majority government that can whip its MPs successfully will be able to determine those terms.
    The problem being that it is not in the hands of the MPs to make those decisions, for all we wish it were. If the Government has negotiated a settlement and the MPs vote it down then the only realistic option on the table is a WTO relationship and no Brexit deal. Because I don't think there is a cat in hells chance that the EU are going to turn around and agree to renegotiate for something else with only a couple of months left before the deadline.

    I want MPs to vote on the final deal. But the idea that, realistically, the choice will be anything but 'The Deal' or 'No Deal' is pretty fanciful.
    The choice will also include “extend and fudge” and “don’t leave”. The reason that the government aren’t prepared to give ground here is that when the deal can’t live up to the mutually incompatible promises they’ve made, it has to be forced through and ancient history before the next GE. If they’re still negotiating and not making progress at that point they’re toast. So “extend and fudge” must be opposed even if it’s in the national interest.
    'Extend and fudge' is also not in our hands. That requires the agreement of all 27 other EU countries. 'Don't leave' will destroy the political system in this country and simply hand ammunition to the extremists.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,639

    I just cashed out on Betfair. A bird in the hand... not that there are many political bets with a result in the near future in which to invest my modest winnings. Is there a market on whether Mrs May will win the vote this evening?

    If you are prepared to wait, Sadiq Khan as next London mayor at 1.33 looks attractive to me, a return of about 13% p.a. over two and a half years. Hard to see Labour losing in London before the GE and hard to see Sadiq not wanting a second term, since he has stood down from parliament.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 17,342

    TonyE said:

    F1: according to Twitter, Sirotkin's now favourite for the Williams seat. The Russian driver was an oft-mentioned name for Toro Rosso, but it was felt he was too young/inexperienced, I think.

    Not sure if any other seats are unresolved once Williams announce their line up.

    He comes with about £10m in funding I hear. I guess that swayed the decision
    I think someone (Mr Sandpit?) mentioned there might be a problem with young drivers such as Sirotkin: Williams' main sponsor is Martini, and they require older drivers who can publicise their drinks in all relevant countries. Stroll is 18, and Sirotkin is 22.

    I daresay Williams can straighten that out, though.
    Correct. Williams need a someone over 25 for promotional purposes. Sirotkin and Kvyat are both too young. Maybe they can get away with using reserve driver Paul DiResta, but that’s pushing it a little and I can’t imagine Bacardi would be too happy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 17,769
    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    kyf_100 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.

    Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.
    That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.

    Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.

    So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.

    Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.

    For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.

    European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.

    It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
    Does all that make Merkel a moron?
    It makes her an autocrat who was able to impose mass immigration not just on her own country, but the rest of the Schengen zone. Now the EU is demanding countries that won't take in "their fair share" of immigrants pay €250,000 per immigrant.

    It is the clearest example of the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU I can think of - that one country's leader can unilaterally impose a policy that has such a profound, dramatic and destabilising effect on every other country, without the citizens of that country having recourse to reject that leader at the ballot box.

    And that is what makes her a moron.
    What was the practical alternative to Merkel's decision back in August 2015? Any other approach certainly wouldn't have relieved other EU countries of the burden of dealing with refugees - quite the contrary.
This discussion has been closed.